Fresh off a glorious World Series title, the Philadelphia Phillies will soon convene for spring training with relatively few roster changes. Outside of a curiously-handled swap of defensively-challenged left fielders (Seattle import Raul Ibanez is several years Pat Burrell’s senior, guaranteed nearly twice as much cash and cost the club a first-round pick), Philly returns with its core intact.

Aside from the obviously crucial health status of Chase Utley (hip), perhaps the most interesting story during March will be the battle for the fifth starter’s job. $20.5 million dollar man Cole Hamels, Brett Myers, Jamie Moyer and Joe Blanton are set one through four, but that last slot has a few contenders of varying consequence vying for the job. If we assume for the moment that Carlos Carrasco (Philly’s #2 prospect, per Baseball America) heads back to AAA for some more seasoning and newly-minted Chan Ho Park is probably best kept in the bullpen, then the battle for the last rotation spot comes down to lefty J.A. Happ and right-hander Kyle Kendrick.

Frankly, it doesn’t seem as though there should be much of a competition. Happ, a 26 year-old Northwestern product, is coming off of a stellar campaign at AAA Lehigh Valley. In 135 innings, the lanky 6-6 southpaw whiffed 151 batters (10.07 per nine innings) and walked 3.2 per nine, posting a 3.40 FIP. That strikeout rate might overstate Happ’s case at least somewhat- he’s not overpowering, but he does feature a solid changeup and slider to compensate for an 88-90 MPH fastball.

Happ has a history of making batters appear hapless (sorry), as he has punched out over a batter per inning during his minor league career (545 K in 528.2 IP, or 9.28 K/9). His control isn’t spectacular (3.49 BB/9) and a fly ball tendency (career 40.3 GB%) could be pernicious in Citizen’s Bank Park, so we’re not talking about a can’t miss stud or anything. But Happ’s brand of pitching very likely beats the alternative.

Kyle Kendrick, despite possessing 3 K’s in his name, just doesn’t miss many bats. The 24 year-old has displayed pretty good control in the majors (2.67 BB/9 in 276.2 innings), but his strikeout rate makes Livan Hernandez puff out his chest: Kendrick has a career mark of just 3.81 K/9. Not surprisingly, he has been among the easiest pitchers to make contact with. Only the aforementioned Hernandez (91.3 Contact%) gave batters a more hittable assortment last year among those tossing at least 150 innings, as opponents put the bat on Kendrick’s offerings 89.9% of the time.

The 6-3, 190 pounder managed to hold his head above water in 2007 when he walked just 1.86 batters per nine and posted a 4.94 FIP, but the figure ballooned to 5.55 this past season as he issued 3.3 BB/9 and K’d only 3.93, “good” for a 1.19 K/BB. Even if Kendrick possessed Maddux-esque control, he would be walking a fine line. With a neutral GB/FB ratio and a walk rate above three, he faces very long odds of enjoying major league success.

Happ might not be a sure-fire, flashy prospect, but he has shown the ability to fool hitters throughout his minor league career (something Kendrick didn’t really do either, with 6.28 K/9) and projects to be the better starter. CHONE (which incorporates minor league data) tends to agree, forecasting Happ to post a 4.52 FIP in 2009, compared to 5.11 for Kendrick. If the Phillies get Happ-y, you could do worse than to take a flyer on J.A. in deeper leagues.

For the better part of the past decade, the Oakland Athletics’ rotation has been a revolving door of talented arms. From “The Big Three” to the more recently imploded Harden, Haren and Blanton-led outfit, change has been about the only constant in Oakland’s starting five.

When the A’s decided that Rich Harden’s excellent-but-transient contributions had worn out their welcome, the club shipped him to the Cubs for a package of prospects including right-hander Sean Gallagher. The 23 year-old might not be a household name, but he’s someone you’ll want to keep in mind as Oakland looks to build another excellent cost-controlled rotation.

Originally selected in the 12th round of the 2004 draft, Gallagher used his eclectic mix of pitches (fastball, curve, slider and change) to post a 2.77 ERA in 480.2 career minor league frames. The 6-2, 235 pounder punched out over a batter per inning (9.03 K/9) while showing adequate control (3.5 BB/9). Gallagher was given his first extended big-league trial last season (21 starts between to Cubs and the A’s, plus 2 relief appearances with Chicago) and while the results might look rather bleak on the surface (he posted a 5.15 ERA), the underlying results look more promising.

Gallagher’s FIP was a less scary 4.48. While he certainly issued more free passes than desired (4.53 BB/9), he did show the ability to miss bats by punching out 8.04 batters per nine innings. A high BABIP (.321) and a really low strand rate (66.5%) conspired to make Gallagher’s appear worse than it really was. The Boston native was not afraid to mix in all of his pitches, either. He used his 92 MPH fastball about 63% of the time, supplementing the heat with a healthy dose of 83 MPH sliders and 75 MPH curves (about 15% each). He also tossed the occasional 81 changeup (6% of the time).

While Gallagher racked up some grounders early on in his minor league career, he has become more of a flyball-oriented pitcher as he has climbed the ladder to the majors. In 130 career frames in the big leagues, Gallagher has posted a 36 GB%. A continued propensity to put the ball in the air would be a problem in some parks, but Gallagher’s new digs would suit such a style: McAfee Coliseum has suppressed HR production by 13% over the past three seasons, and overall run production by 11 percent.

Sean Gallagher might not be in the upper echelon of young pitchers, but there’s a lot to like here. The control will have to improve if he is going to take a step forward, but Gallagher has a diverse repertoire, the ability to fool batters and resides in a ballpark that really does a number on batting lines. Get Gallagher in the later rounds of your draft- this erstwhile Cub might just be part of Oakland’s next wave of great young pitching talent.

This winter, the Chicago Cubs have strung together a series of puzzling transactions. From shipping versatile infielder/outfielder Mark DeRosa to the Indians for three lukewarm pitching prospects (Jeff Stevens, John Gaub, Christopher Archer), acquiring Kevin Gregg from Florida for six years of team control over Jose Ceda, not offering arbitration to type-A free agent Kerry Wood (the “worst case scenario” there involves Wood accepting, giving the club a good, injury-prone reliever under control for just one year) and essentially swapping option-less former prospects Felix Pie and Ronny Cedeno for Aaron Heilman, GM Jim Hendry has sent out quite the load of talent without receiving comparable value in return. Signing Milton Bradley is a risky-but-defensible move and swapping Jason Marquis for Luis Vizcaino is unlikely to create ripples, but on the whole, it has been a winter of trading down in the Windy City.

The “out of options” fire sale continued yesterday, as the pitching-starved Orioles snagged left-hander Rich Hill from the Cubs for a player to be named. The move is all upside from Baltimore’s vantage point: they acquire a guy who was pretty useful as recently as 2007, and if Hill busts, they won’t give up much of anything: the quality of the PTBNL is contingent on Hill’s performance for the O’s.

Hill, 29 in March, certainly has a better chance of cracking Baltimore’s rotation than he did in Chicago, where his turbulent 2008 made him a forgotten man within the organization. While the O’s have an impressive collection of well-regarded arms on the farm (Chris Tillman, Brian Matusz, Jake Arrieta, and to a lesser extent guys like Brandon Erbe, David Hernandez, Troy Patton, Bradley Bergesen and Chorye Spoone), the current rotation depth chart reads like a collection of waiver-wire talent.

Jeremy Guthrie’s peripherals suggest he’s more league-average starter than rotational pillar (his FIP has hovered around 4.50 the past two years, with a .270-ish BABIP and a high strand rate making things appear sturdier). Control-oriented import Koji Uehara “should be roughly around average, and more likely on the low side than the high”, according to Baseball Prospectus’ Clay Davenport (subscription required). Beyond that? The O’s are left hoping that Radhames Liz and/or Matt Albers have good enough control or a deep enough repertoire to be sufficient starters. And there’s Mark Hendrickson, who’s tall. So, there’s that.

I do not claim to have any special insight into Rich Hill’s health, mechanics or mental state, and the results in ’08 were grim. In 67 combined innings tossed last year between the majors, AAA, High-A and Rookie Ball, Hill walked 62 batters. Small sample size and all, Hill’s 2008 plate discipline numbers tell the story: aware that Hill couldn’t locate, opposing batters swung at just 10.8% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (the league average is close to 25%), and hitters swung just 34.8% of the time overall. Why go up hacking against a guy who’s very likely to issue a free pass?

Things didn’t get any better during the offseason, as he walked a batter per inning for Aragua in the Venezuelan Winter League. Is it possible that Hill has “Steve Blass Disease” and the strike zone will continue to elude him? Sure.

But, what I do know is that on the whole, Hill has shown a solid skill-set in the majors. In 337.2 career frames, the University of Michigan product has punched out 8.24 batters per nine innings while walking 3.65 per nine. An extreme flyball pitcher (career 34.3 GB%), Hill has been burned by the home run (1.28 surrendered per nine innings). Overall, the 6-5 southpaw has posted a 4.57 FIP, close to league-average. Hill’s flyballing ways likely won’t serve him well as he transitions into the insanely competitive AL East and a ballpark that inflates home run production (Camden Yards has a 3-year HR park factor of 123).

So, what does Hill have to do to reclaim his past success? Aside from the obvious (“uh, throw more strikes”), Hill could stand to diversify his repertoire. He has always relied upon a high-80’s fastball and a big, slow-breaking curveball, but Hill basically eschewed his changeup last season, and also did so during a rough and short stint with the Cubs in 2005.

While keeping in mind that we are dealing with pitch data from only 19.2 innings, Hill threw a changeup just 2.3% of the time in ’08 compared to 8.3% in 2007. With no confidence in his fastball and a reluctance to pull the string, Hill threw his trademark curve 35.4% of the time (27.3% in ’07). Recapturing his fastball control and command will surely be paramount, but it couldn’t hurt to be a little less predictable as well.

Hill is no sure thing, but he presents the same “low-risk, high reward” opportunity for fantasy owners as he does for the Orioles. After such a brutal season, Hill is unlikely to be on many radar screens. Keep an eye on his progress during spring training- 2008 was disastrous, but he posted a near 3/1 K/BB ratio as recently as ’07. If Hill regains his control, he could prove to be a shrewd acquisition for open-minded owners.

It’s a fair question to ask: which Washington entity has endured larger struggles since 2005- the executive and legislative branches of our government, or the Washington Nationals? While the former has implemented a pair of “bailout” packages to quell an economic maelstrom, the Nats very much remain a toxic asset.

Fresh off a sordid 102-loss campaign in which the club posted a run differential of -184, Washington’s big league ballclub could use all the help they can get. Luckily, if you squint really hard, you can see the beginnings of a turnaround.

Talented-but-volatile outfielder Elijah Dukes turned in an impressive season (a .382 wOBA with plus defense in right field). Center fielder Lastings Milledge and backstop Jesus Flores have oscillated between tantalizing and frustrating since arriving from the New York Mets via a trade and the Rule V Draft, respectively. Third baseman Ryan Zimmerman has sort of stagnated at the plate (wOBA’s from 2006-2008: .348, .340, .336), but the Virginia product is still just 24 years old and has been a big asset overall with an average of 3.9 Value Wins over the past three seasons. The offense was pretty lousy last season (with a .309 wOBA that ranked ahead of only the A’s), but one can at least dream upon Dukes and Zimmerman blossoming into all-around forces while simultaneously praying that Flores and Milledge can harness their control of the strike zone.

While there are some offensive pieces to the contending puzzle present, the rotation remains rather bleak. The Nats’ starting pitchers placed 28th in team FIP, faring better than only the lowly Rangers and Orioles. Presently, Washington’s rotation hopes lie in the hands of imports Daniel Cabrera and Scott Olsen, once-promising arms whose performances have tailed off dramatically. While expecting a rebound from either Cabrera or Olsen is a dubious proposition and incumbent “ace” John Lannan looks more like an adequate back-end starter than any sort of rotation headliner, Washington does have one potential ace up its sleeve.

Jordan Zimmermann, a 22 year-old right-hander, has quickly established himself as the top pitching prospect in the organization. A second-round pick in 2007 out of Division III Wisconsin-Stevens Point, Zimmermann signed for $495,000 as the 67th player taken overall. As Baseball America noted at the time, a confluence of factors caused the four-pitch righty to hover under the radar somewhat:

“Scouts haven’t had an easy time following him this spring, however. Zimmermann broke his jaw in two places when he was struck by a batted ball while pitching live batting practice during an offseason workout. He missed three games and lost 10 pounds, and having wisdom teeth pulled during the season didn’t help him regain his strength. Bad early-season weather also made it difficult to keep him on a regular schedule.”

While that string of inauspicious events limited his scouting exposure, Zimmermann has enjoyed nothing but good luck since signing on the dotted line. Sent to the New York Penn League in the summer of ’07, the 6-2, 200 pounder immediately opened eyes in a 49-inning stint. The 2007 Division III College World Series MVP punched out 62 batters (11.39 K/9) and walked 16 (2.94 BB/9), posting a 2.18 FIP in the process.

One might expect a grizzled college pitcher to feast upon younger, less-experienced batters, but Zimmermann continued to eat up batsmen in 2008. Assigned to High-A Potomac to begin the year, Zimmermann quickly proved that his low-90’s heat, hard upper-80’s slider, mid-70’s hook and low-80’s changeup were no match for the Carolina League. In 27.1 frames, he compiled a 31/8 K/BB ratio and a 2.29 FIP. Bumped up to Double-A Harrisburg, Zimmermann continued to miss bats (8.69 K/9) and exhibited decent control (3.29 BB/9) in 106.2 innings (good for a 3.55 FIP). He kept the ball on the ground at both levels as well, with a 55 GB% at Potomac and a slightly above-average 48 GB% at Harrisburg.

There’s much to like about Zimmermann from both a statistical and scouting viewpoint. He has whiffed over a batter per inning during his rapid ascent through the minors, while exhibiting solid enough control and earning the adulation of the scouting community at the same time. Zimmermann ranked as Washington’s number one prospect following the ’08 season (per Baseball America) and checked in at #42 on Keith Law’s ranking of the top 100 prospects in the game. Said Law:

“Zimmermann is a classic four-pitch pitcher who changes speeds well and commands his stuff, locating his 90-94 mph four-seamer to all parts of the zone. He also keeps the ball down. His best pitch remains his mid-80s slider, short and tight with good tilt, although his curve is tighter now than it was when he was an amateur. Plus, he turns his changeup over well….He’s not a potential ace but a very high-probability No. 3 with a chance to be better than that because of his plus command.”

Zimmermann might not be the classic fire-breathing pitching prospect who causes radar guns to melt, but his deep repertoire, strong peripherals and quick rise up the organizational ladder suggest that he could establish himself as Washington’s top arm in short order. Given the paucity of alternatives and the likelihood that the ballclub will spend another year in the NL East’s basement, the Nationals have every reason to give Zimmermann a look sometime during the 2009 season. Washington’s other Zimmerman(n) should stimulate a stagnant starting five and is well worth a look in fantasy leagues when he gets the call.

Left-hander Garrett Olson has endured quite the chaotic offseason. The 25 year-old with just 165 major league innings to his name has swapped teams twice within a two-week period. First shipped to Chicago along with minor league ‘pen arm Henry Williamson for Felix Pie, Olson now heads across the country to Seattle with shortstop Ronny Cedeno in exchange for reliever/hopeful roation member Aaron Heilman (also twice-traded this winter, having been Mariner property for less than two months).

Assuming Olson will remain with the M’s (thus allowing his head to stop spinning), the Cal Poly product will compete for the fifth-starter’s role in Seattle. The chances of him winning that spot outright in spring training appear slim- he faces competition for Ryan Rowland-Smith, Brandon Morrow and Ryan Feierabend – but Olson still might see his fair share of rotation work. All clubs end up calling upon those 6th, 7th and 8th starters, and with Erik Bedard’s health uncertain and Morrow facing a massive innings leap if he’s in the rotation from the get-go, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the 2005 supplemental first-rounder end up making a fair number of starts.

To this point in his major league career, Olson has struggled quite a bit. His ERA (6.87) overstates the extent of his issues (his FIP is a less-frightening 5.28), but the finesse southpaw has had difficulty finding the strike-zone on a consistent basis. While he exhibited solid control in the minors with 2.93 BB/9, Olson has issue nearly five free passes per nine innings in the big leagues. The 6-1, 200 pounder also displayed a penchant for missing bats down on the farm with a career K/9 mark of 8.91, but major league batters haven’t been fooled by his high-80’s heat or low 80’s slider and changeup (6.05 K/9).

As one might imagine, Olson’s mild fastball generates plenty of flyballs. His career GB% in the majors is 40.5%. Pitching in a venue that does not take kindly to such tendencies (Camden Yards has a 3-year HR park factor of 123, per the Bill James Handbook), Olson gave up plenty of tater’s with the O’s, surrendering 1.15 HR/9. If Olson had remained Baltimore property of had stayed put in Chicago (with an also-unfriendly 3 year HR park factor of 117), he would have been toiling in a stadium ill-suited to his pitching tendencies.

In Seattle, however, things look more promising. Safeco Field is one of the least threatening parks for hurlers, with a three-year run factor of 92 (suppressing offensive production by 8%). Those run-stifling tendencies extend to homers, as Safeco has diminished long-ball levels by 6% from 2006-2008 (94 park factor).

To boot, Olson will now pitch in front of what figures to be one of the absolute best defensive outfields in the game. Seattle’s new front office appears to have made defense a priority, having acquired gifted glove men Franklin Gutierrez and Endy Chavez in a 12-player bonanza that shipped J.J. Putz to Queens (Ronny Cedeno might also fit the “defense-first” bill, depending on what metrics one looks at: he rates well at 2nd base put poorly at shortstop per UZR, but John Dewan’s Plus/Minus system liked his work during his extended big league trial in ’06, giving him a +5 mark). Residing in front of rangy fly-catchers in a pitcher’s park, Olson looks like a more viable fantasy option than he did with either the Orioles of the Cubs.

While acquiring players like Gutierrez, Chavez and Olson will never garner front-page headlines, Jack Zduriencik and company have done a fantastic job of matching team personnel to the tendencies of Seattle’s home ballpark. Olson is certainly no star. But, he might just turn out to be a decent rotation candidate now that he’s pitching in a favorable environment, flanked by three outfielders capable of covering the gaps.

In 2004 and 2005, Roy Halladay missed significant time with first a shoulder injury and then a leg injury. Since then he’s started 31 or more games three consecutive years but some fantasy players still consider him an injury risk. That’s good news as it means that one of the top pitchers in the game doesn’t carry the cost that he could.

In 2008, Halladay led the American League in WHIP (1.053), finished second in Wins (20) and ERA (2.78) and third in strikeouts (206). Yet according to the latest rankings from Mock Draft Central, Halladay is the seventh pitcher off the board, with an ADP of 47 or 30 spots behind Johan Santana.

Last year, Halladay started throwing more cut fastballs. He got more swings outside of the zone and batters made less contact on those swings than they had previously against him. All of that led to a 7.54 K/9, his highest total for any season with more than 17 starts.

There is at least one big concern around Halladay. In 2008, manager John Gibbons let him throw nine complete games, which led to 246 innings, his highest total since 2003. The next year is when Halladay came down with his shoulder injury.

All pitchers carry risk. And perhaps Halladay has slightly more risk than others because of his past injury history. But according to the RotoTimes Player Rater, Halladay was the top pitcher in 2008 with a $34.14 earned dollar value, which was good for eighth overall. It’s up to each fantasy player to weigh the risk and the reward for each player and value them accordingly.

No one can accurately predict the risk of a pitcher coming down with an injury. But most people would say that it is less risky to have a 31-year-old pitcher throw 246 innings than a 26-year-old one throw 266, like Halladay did in 2003.

However, that is not the only risk that owners have to take with Halladay. While he was the top pitcher in 2008, he was outside the top 30 in 2007, when he made 31 starts. Was 2008 simply a career year for Halladay? It was certainly his best to date; but he also has a greater track record than just one season, as he was one of the game’s best in both 2003 and 2006 and was on pace in 2005 before the leg injury.

Fantasy players should look for certainty with their first few picks. But at some point you have to add risk and upside or you are certain to finish out of the money. So far this off-season, owners are saying Halladay’s risk becomes appropriate near the end of the fourth round.

Chad Gaudin is not a name that should pop up in most 2009 Fantasy Drafts. The Chicago Cubs right-hander is currently earmarked as a reliever on a very deep pitching staff. The starting rotation currently featuring Carlos Zambrano, Ryan Dempster, Rich Harden, Ted Lilly, and Sean Marshall (Who recently received a vote of confidence for the last spot).

Jason Marquis was originally slated for the spot before he was dispatched to Colorado for reliever Luis Vizcaino. The Cubs also explored the possibility of acquiring ace Jake Peavy from the Padres, but those talks fizzled. Angel Guzman is another option for the fifth spot, but he has had trouble staying healthy. Jeff Samardzija, a former minor league starter, had a nice debut in the bullpen but his control is iffy. Rich Hill, speaking of iffy control, is busy trying to scare off Steve Blass.

Gaudin, despite his history in the starting rotation, continues to get overlooked. The good news for the right-hander, though, is that the rotation includes Harden. The Canadian made 25 starts for the A’s and Cubs in 2008. The only time he’s started more than 20 games prior to that came all the way back in 2004. That means there will likely be five to 10 starts available at some point in 2009 for a deserving Cubs pitcher.

If Gaudin does get a shot at starting, you may want to pick him up for that stretch. In 2007, the right-hander made 34 starts for Oakland and missed pitching 200 innings by just two-thirds of an inning, so he’s durable despite his 5’10” stature. He also racked up 154 strikeouts during that time. The downside, though, is that he allowed 205 hits and 100 walks. His ERA was a respectable 4.42.

Although Oakland plays in a pitcher’s park, Gaudin actually allowed a lower OPS on the road: .762 versus .790. If anything, the right-hander tired in the second half while pitching the highest innings total in his career. In the first half, he allowed a line of .246/.328/.341; it rose to .290/.385/.515 in his final 16 starts.

Pitching mainly out of the pen in 2008, Gaudin still allowed a few too many hits (92 in 90 innings) but his control rate improved from 4.52 BB/9 in 2007 to 2.70 BB/9. Whether that was directly related to pitching out of the bullpen or simply a point of maturation remains to be seen.

His repertoire remained almost exactly the same from 2007 to 2008 despite the change in role. Gaudin’s fastball sat right around 90 mph on average, although he utilized his slider six percent more often as a reliever (at the expense of the fastball). His change-up was used eight percent of the time in both 2007 and 2008.

The other noticeable change between 2007 and 2008 came on first-pitch strikes. Gaudin pumped in a first-pitch strike five percent more often in 2008 than in the previous season, which could very well be a sign that he is maturing as a pitcher. Despite his six seasons in the Majors, he is still just 25 years of age.

If Gaudin can take the improvements he made in 2008 in the bullpen and apply them during an opportunity in the starting rotation, then alert Fantasy owners could receive a boost at some point during the 2009 season.

The Boston Red Sox organization may have the best pitching depth in all of Major League Baseball. The veteran starting rotation currently boasts Josh Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Jon Lester, Tim Wakefield, Brad Penny, and John Smoltz. For those of you counting at home, that adds up to six quality starting pitchers. Six pitchers that could probably be No. 3 starters or better on almost any club in the Majors.

Now to be fair, both Penny and Smoltz come with major questions marks because of their health. Smoltz, 41, will only be available for half a season at best, but he could be a major difference maker in a short playoff series – as either a starter or a reliever. Penny won 16 games in both 2006 and 2007. At the age of 30, he still has the chance to regain his old form if his arm does not fall off. All he really needs to do is stay healthy until Smoltz is ready. Together, Penny and Smoltz make a pretty intimidating two-headed monster.

Wakefield, now 42, had his share of injury woes in 2008 thanks to shoulder problems, but he is a great value at just $4 million and throwing the knuckleball takes less toll on his body than other pitches. He should still be good for 10 wins, 150 innings and possibly 100 strikeouts.

Lester made a valiant return from cancer and provided 33 starts in 2008. In his first full season, he compiled 16 wins, 210.1 innings and 152 strikeouts. The 25-year-old southpaw should be even better in 2009 with a year of experience under his belt.

Matsuzaka, 28, is arguably the most talented and most frustrating pitcher on the staff. He has about six pitches in his repertoire, he gets good movement on all of them and he sits around 92 mph with his fastball. Matsuzaka won 18 games in 2008 but the scary thing is that he should have won even more. If he can learn to trust his stuff and stop nibbling, he could win a lot of games in 2009.

Beckett had some injury concerns of his own in 2008 and won just 12 games after racking up 20 in 2007. He should be a good bet for about 200 innings and close to 200 strikeouts. If you’re looking for Fantasy impact, grab Beckett followed by Lester, Matsuzaka, Penny and Wakefield.

The depth that the organzation has is even more impressive given how Boston acquired the six pitchers above. Lester was a home-grown project, having been selected out of high school in the second round of the 2002 draft. Matsuzaka was an international free agent signing out of Japan. Wakefield was rescued off the scrap heap after Pittsburgh (of all places) gave up on him and released him. Beckett was acquired via a trade with Florida (although Boston gave up Hanley Ramirez for him). Penny and Smoltz were then added via free agency. Good clubs find multiple ways to obtain talent; Boston is quite obviously one of them. And Fantasy Baseball owners can reap the rewards in 2009.

As mentioned in Part 1 of my look at Boston’s starting pitching depth, the organization is blessed with an abundance of hurlers. The club has six veteran pitchers penciled in for five spots in the 2009 rotation. But there are four more talented pitchers standings on the outside edge of the mound looking in: Justin Masterson, Clay Buchholz, Michael Bowden, and Junichi Tazawa.

Masterson has the best shot at breaking camp with Boston, even if five of the six veteran hurlers are healthy. The right-hander appeared in 36 games with the big club in 2008, including nine starts, and acquitted himself nicely. Armed with a bowling ball that averages around 90 mph, as well as a nice slider, Masterson induces a lot of ground balls (54.3 GB% in 2008). He just needs to show a little more control (4.08 BB/9) and he could be dominating – as long as he has competent infield defence behind him. Masterson likely won’t be a huge asset to Fantasy Baseball owners, unless he wriggles his way into a starting gig because he’s not going to wrestle the closer’s job away from Jonathan Papelbon in the bullpen.

The 2008 season was supposed to be a breakout party for Buchholz, but that obviously did not happen. After making a name for himself in 2007 by throwing a no-hitter in September in just his second big league start, the right-hander (who rarely struggled even in the minors) regressed considerably and posted a 6.75 ERA in 16 games (15 starts). He allowed 93 hits in 76 innings and posted an out-of-character walk rate of 4.86 BB/9. Relegated to the minors for the remainder of the season, Buchholz rebounded which gives hope for 2009 and beyond. He just needs another opportunity, which will not come easily in Boston.

Bowden has quietly crept up the organizational ladder since being selected 47th overall in the 2005 amateur baseball draft. The 22-year-old hurler has a little more youth on his side than Masterson and Buchholz. He also has just 45 innings of experience above Double-A, so more time in Triple-A certainly will not hurt his value. Regardless, he held his own in one emergency big league start so there is no reason to think he won’t be ready if called upon.

Tazawa was Boston’s big international free agent signing this off-season. He was given a three-year, $3.3 million dollar big league contract after signing out of Japan, but the expectation is that he will begin his North American career in Double-A. As a Japanese amateur, there is not a whole lot of concrete data on him but reports suggest he has a low-to-mid 90s fastball and a plus breaking ball. Don’t expect the 22-year-old to surface in Boston for an significant period of time in 2009 but keep him in mind for 2010 and beyond.

From a Fantasy perspective, you have to consider Masterson as having the most impact potential this coming season. Buchholz would be next in line, followed by Bowden and the mysterious Mr. Tazawa. All four pitchers would have a pretty good shot of beginning 2009 in the starting rotation for most other teams in Major League Baseball. Given Boston’s position as a ‘Big Market Team’ you have to be impressed by the fact the club puts so much effort into developing and holding on to the homemade talent.

Since Derek Lowe was moved back to the starting rotation in 2002, he has been a model of consistency. Between the Red Sox and Dodgers over that time frame, an average season looked like this: 15-11, 208 IP, 3.83 FIP, 129 Ks, and a WHIP of 1.27. Since becoming a Dodger, his statistical resume is almost identical: 14-12, 213 IP, 3.77 FIP, 141 Ks, and 1.23 WHIP. As you can see, his move to Dodger-stadium has really helped his numbers (except W-L). The amazing thing about Lowe, though, is the lack of variation in his success. He has never gone over 220 IP or under 180, he has only 2 seasons with an ERA over 4 with only one under 3, he has yet to strike-out more than 150 without falling under 100, etc.

Last year he also benefitted from a very good defense behind him. Blake DeWitt, James Loney, the roving SS, and (not so much) Jeff Kent made up a pretty good defensive infield to gobble up all those groundballs. Which brings me to the most important aspect of Lowe’s game: his penchant for pounding the ball in the dirt. Since 2002, he has finished 1st, 1st, 3rd, 2nd, 1st, 1st, and 2nd in GB%. It is rates like that that make him so consistent.

So what do we see in the crystal ball for Lowe next year now that he has signed with the Braves? I would expect that his numbers should only improve. While Dodger Stadium is considered a low run-scoring environment, Turner Field is fairly close. According to statcorner.com’s park factors, Turner Stadium rates as just a bit higher run-scoring environment (99.6 to 97.6) while being a tougher place to hit homeruns (99.1 to 111.1). Lowe will also likely see an improved infield defense behind him with the Braves great infield defense.

Bill James, CHONE, and Marcel all see Lowe having another solid year, and there is little reason to doubt that he will continue to do what he has done so well in the past. Lowe has made himself a very successful pitcher by not beating himself, letting his fielders play, and limiting the long-ball. This is a recipe for success that should continue through this year and beyond.