Back in November, Peter Bendix expressed his admiration for Florida Marlins right-hander Ricky Nolasco. As Peter put it:

“How many people realize just how good he was this year? Or, more importantly, how good he’s likely to be next year? Chances are, most of the people in your fantasy league are either unaware of Nolasco, or don’t fully appreciate how good he is.”

With most fantasy players squarely in draft mode right about now, this seems like a great time to hammer home the talent level and productivity of Florida’s covert ace.

Originally drafted by the Cubs in the 4th round of the 2001 draft, Nolasco often posted impressive numbers in the minors. By the age of 21, he had turned in a knockout campaign in AA (107 IP, 9.7 K/9, 3.11 BB/9). Still, the California native was sent back to the Southern League in 2005, where he once again struck out over a batter per inning (9.6 K/9) with better control (2.56 BB/9). Despite the impressive peripherals, Nolasco often flew under the radar in Chicago’s system, ranking 19th on Baseball America’s top 30 Cubs prospect list in 2005.

In December of ’05, the North Siders shipped Nolasco, Sergio Mitre and Renyel Pinto to the Marlins in an ill-fated deal for Juan Pierre. While Pierre would spend just one season in Chicago, Nolasco stepped into Florida’s rotation in 2006 and turned in a respectable rookie showing. In 140 frames, he punched out 6.36 batters per nine and walked 2.64 per nine. The flyball pitcher had some issues with the gopher ball (1.29 HR/9), but ended up with an adequate 4.68 FIP.

Unfortunately, Nolasco did not have the opportunity to build upon that work in 2007. Ricky’s entire season was essentially washed away by arm maladies, as he was placed on the DL with elbow inflammation in April and an elbow strain in May. He tossed only 21 innings for the Fish, posting a 5.44 FIP.

In 2008, Nolasco returned with a vengeance. After a ho-hum start, the 6-2, 220 pounder went on a tear during the summer months:

April: 26.1 IP, 13/9 K/BB
May: 34 IP, 25/13 K/BB
June: 35.1 IP, 29/7 K/BB
July: 39 IP, 37/5 K/BB
August: 43 IP, 51/4 K/BB (!)
September: 34.2 IP, 31/4 K/BB

In 212.1 innings, Nolasco posted a 3.77 FIP. He still gave up some taters (1.19 HR/9), but his peripherals were just sparkling: 7.88 K/9 and 1.78 BB/9. His 4.43 K/BB ratio ranked 7th among all starters, one spot ahead of stretch-run deity CC Sabathia. Ricky had always possessed a well-placed low-90’s fastball and a sharp mid-70’s hook, but he added another dimension to his repertoire in 2008 with a mid-80’s slider:

2006: FB 61.4% (91.5 MPH), SL 0.1% (82 MPH), CB 34.1% (74.9 MPH)
2008: FB 51.6% (91.2 MPH), SL 15.8% (83.9 MPH), CB 26.8% (75 MPH)

Supplementing those three offerings with an occasional changeup, Nolasco was more difficult to put the bat on the ball against. Opposing hitters swung at 28.6% of pitches Nolasco threw outside of the strike zone (22.1% in ’06), made less contact on those outside swings (64 O-Contact% in ’06, 60.7% in ’08) and made less contact overall (83 Contact% in ’06, 79.3% in ’08).

Ricky Nolasco does come with some risk. He has an elbow injury in his not-too-distant past, and he is coming off of a season where he threw considerably more than ever before: his prior highest inning total was 161.2, back in the Southern League in 2005. Despite those concerns, fantasy owners should take a long look at Florida’s underappreciated ace, with the hope that he avoids the trainer’s table. If he remains healthy, Nolasco could be a top-20 starter in 2009.

Those who are big, left-handed and throw very hard have a way of getting a preponderance of opportunity in professional baseball. Toronto’s David Purcey fit this axiom rather well during the first few years of his career. The 16th overall selection in the 2004 amateur draft, Purcey occasionally made scouts all tingly with his low-to-mid-90’s gas, but he also had them reaching for the antacids on a regular basis due to his scattershot control.

The former Oklahoma Sooner made his full-season debut in 2005, with Dunedin of the High-A Florida State League. Purcey displayed the high-octane stuff that garnered him high accolades, with an eye-popping 11.06 K/9 in 94.1 innings. However, in a sign of things to come, he also allowed 5.34 BB/9. Despite Purcey’s issues in keeping the ball around the dish, the Jays bumped him up AA New Hampshire, where he continued to both impress (9.42 K/9) and infuriate (5.23 BB/9) in 43 frames of work. Calling him a “physical pitcher with power stuff”, Baseball America ranked Purcey as the third-best prospect in Toronto’s system on the basis of a heater with plus velocity, a 12-to-6 curve and a developing changeup.

Returned to the Eastern league to begin the 2006 season, Purcey’s prospect status stagnated. The 6-4, 245 pounder posted rates of 8.25 K/9 and 4.48 BB/9 in 88.1 IP. His ERA (5.60) overstated the extent of his struggles (his BABIP was .354; the quality of defense in the minors is lower, but that’s still pretty lofty), but the walks and a 4.59 FIP were still underwhelming. Like the previous year, Purcey received a promotion despite his lack of precision. In 51.2 innings for AAA Syracuse, the $1.6M man struck out 7.84 batters per nine innings but lost all semblance of control, with 6.62 BB/9. Not surprisingly, Purcey’s FIP was a grisly 5.54.

Following that campaign, Purcey fell to 9th on BA’s list of Jays farm hands. BA continued to point out his virtues, noting that “few left-handers can match the raw stuff Purcey possesses” and praising his fastball and biting curveball as “plus pitches.” However, his “large build and inconsistent release point” also led to speculation about a conversion to the bullpen.

After several years of frustrating the scouting community, Purcey appeared to make some legitimate strides to begin the 2007 campaign. The Jays dropped the big southpaw back down to AA, and he responded. His ERA (5.37) in 62 innings didn’t tell the real story: he continued to miss bats (7.98 K/9), but his LaLoosh-like control was much improved. He pared his walk rate down to 2.32 batters per nine innings, posting a 3.23 FIP.

Unfortunately, just as Purcey appeared to be making good on his draft status, injury struck. Purcey had to go under the knife in June to have cysts removed from his forearm and triceps. BA dubbed him the 9th-best prospect in Toronto’s system again, reporting that Purcey sacrificed a little velocity on his fastball for increased command: “Purcey is capable of dialing his fastball up to 93-95 MPH, but the Blue Jays have toned him down to the low 90’s to improve his location.”

Healthy and aware that well-placed low-90’s heat tops random mid-90’s flinging, Purcey turned in a very nice season back at AAA Syracuse in 2008. In 117 frames, he improved his K rate (9.31) while also displaying sharp control for the first extended period of his career (2.62 BB/9).

With a 3.56 K/BB ratio and a 2.99 FIP, Purcey earned a call-up to the majors for good in late July (he had brief cameos in April and May). The 26 year-old’s first taste of the bigs was a mixed bag: relying heavily on a 91 MPH fastball (thrown about 70% of the time), Purcey compiled a 4.67 FIP. He used the fastball, a hard mid-80’s slider, mid-70’s curve and an occasional low-80’s change to punch out 8.03 batters per nine innings, though he was a bit generous with the free passes (4.02 BB/9).

Entering the 2009 season, Purcey appears to have a great chance of making the Jays out of camp. Toronto was a wonderful run-prevention club in ’08, but with Burnett in the Bronx, Marcum recovering from TJ surgery and McGowan still working his way back from shoulder surgery, the Jays’ rotation is a land of opportunity at the moment.

Purcey’s progression from inconsistent flame-thrower to savvy low-90’s strike-thrower is a great example of radar gun readings being just one of many components that combine to make a pitcher successful. You could do much worse than deciding to take a flyer on Purcey in the later rounds. He’s got talent, opportunity and a better understanding of what it takes to be successful at his craft.

Gio Gonzalez has no doubt seen his fair share of U-Haul trucks. The former supplemental-first-round selection out of a Miami high school during the 2004 draft has played for the White Sox, Phillies, White Sox again, and the Athletics organizations. He has been traded for Major Leaguers, including designated hitter Jim Thome, starting pitcher Freddy Garcia, and outfielder Nick Swisher.

The constant moving for Gonzalez has not been due to a lack of talent; he’s been a popular commodity because he’s young, left-handed and has put up some solid minor league career numbers, including 476 hits allowed in 582.2 career minor league innings.

Gonzalez has missed his fair share of bats in the past three seasons (two years at Double-A, one at Triple-A), and has struck out more than nine batters per nine innings. At Triple-A in 2008, Gonzalez allowed 106 hits in 123 innings and posted rates of 4.46 BB/9 and 9.37 K/9. He obviously needs to shave down the walk rate, especially after his MLB debut late last year that saw him walk 25 batters in 34 innings (6.62 BB/9). After allowing just 12 home runs in Triple-A, Gonzalez was lit up for nine (2.38 HR/9) in the Majors.

Yes, the southpaw had a rough introduction to the Majors, but his minor league numbers suggest he should be just about ready to secure a No. 4 or 5 spot in a Major League rotation in 2009. His command/control are the biggest question marks at this point, as the 23-year-old hurler learned the hard way. Major League hitters swung at just 18.2% of his pitches outside the strike zone, a tiny percentage even in a small sample size.

Gonzalez’ fastball averaged around 89 mph in the Majors, and he also showcased a curveball and a change-up. His biggest competitions for pitching time in 2009 include fellow top prospects Brett Anderson, Vince Mazzaro, and Trevor Cahill, whom I wrote about recently.

Earlier this week, we discussed the case for and against veteran starters Freddy Garcia, Tim Redding and Livan Hernandez attaining the Mets’ fifth starter gig. Now, let’s take a quick look at the two prospects vying for the spot. Though Jonathon Niese and Robert Parnell face long odds of cracking the rotation out of the gate, each could play a role in Queens at some point this season.

The 22 year-old Niese was featured on this site in November. Back then, I offered the following take on the southpaw’s game:

“Jonathon Niese will likely never be a front-of-the-rotation stalwart, but his combination of solid K rates and groundball tendencies makes him an interesting young arm. There’s always concern with a pitcher like Niese who generates those K’s with a big breaking ball and a tame fastball (89.4 MPH with the Mets): conventional wisdom says that while minor leaguers may not be able to lay off of that 74 MPH curve in the dirt, major league hitters will show more restraint and be less apt to chase. With the high-80’s heat, the big-breaking curveball and so-so control, Niese seems to have a Barry Zito starter kit at his disposal, with better ability to induce groundballs.”

The Defiance, Ohio native does not come equipped with electric stuff, so I think there is some concern that the impressive whiff rates in the minors (8.27 K/9) might not translate quite as well to the big leagues. Long term, Niese’s big hook and groundball tendencies should make him a solid back-of the-rotation starter. It seems likely that the 6-4, 215 pounder will head back to AAA to begin the year. CHONE Projects a 4.85 FIP for Niese, with 6.93 K/9 and 4.21 BB/9.

Parnell continues to rank well within an admittedly top-heavy Mets farm system, placing 5th on the club’s Baseball America prospect list. The Charleston Southern product fits the archetypal “power pitcher” mold: he’s 6-4, 200 pounds and can occasionally ramp his fastball up to the mid-90’s with a hard mid-80’s slider. However, Parnell has lacked consistency since being snatched up in the 9th round of the 2005 amateur draft.

The 24 year-old was extremely raw in college (according to BA, he posted ERA’s of 6.82 and 8.86 during his last two college seasons) and continues to both tantalize and frustrate: in 471 minor league frames, Parnell has punched out about 7.9 batters per nine innings while posting an above-average groundball rate, but he has also walked 3.9 hitters per nine and is coming off of a mildly disappointing 2008 campaign. In 127.1 innings at AA Binghamton, Parnell struck out 6.42/9 while issuing an abundance of free passes (4.02 BB/9). Promoted to AAA New Orleans, he whiffed 10.18 per nine in 20.1 innings, but continued to struggle with his control (3.98 BB/9).

A starter throughout his minor league career, Parnell made six relief appearances for the Mets last September. In that short stint, he showcased a 94 MPH heater with sink as well as an 86 MPH slider. Given Parnell’s occasional wildness and his problems maintaining velocity throughout his starts (BA had his fastball anywhere from 89-97), this power arm seems like a good bet to end up in the ‘pen.

Cole Hamels will be a lightning rod figure between two camps this year. Sure, there is the whole Mets-Phillies thing, with Hamels implying the Mets were chokers, but I was thinking of a rivalry of a different sort. In the scouts versus stats conflict, Hamels should be a test case for the validity of each side.

From the traditional point of view, Hamels put up his second straight outstanding season. He finished 2008 with 14 wins and set career highs in ERA (3.09), strikeouts (196) and WHIP (1.082). Last year Hamels was the seventh-best fantasy starter. He earned an $18.89 dollar value according to the RotoTimes Player Rater. And if that wasn’t enough, Hamels thrived in the post-season, going 4-0 with a 1.60 ERA for the World Champions.

But things do not look so rosy for Hamels in another context. His K/9 dropped for a second straight season and checked in at 7.76 last year. Hamels’ FIP was 63 points higher than his ERA, the 16th-highest mark in the category. He also had a .270 BABIP despite allowing a career-high 21.8 percent LD%. Hamels placed 13th in Baseball Prospectus’ Pitcher Abuse Points list, with only two hurlers ahead of him, Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain, younger than the Phillies’ lefthander.

And the 25-year-old Hamels also is one of the pitchers susceptible to the “Verducci Effect” in that he increased his workload by 44 innings from the year before.

So far, mock drafters have sided with the traditionalists, as Hamels has an ADP of 41 and is the fourth SP off the board.

Hamels will have to improve on last year’s outstanding season to be worth a fourth-round pick. And there are enough warning signs around him to make passing on him in that slot an easy choice. Jake Peavy, Brandon Webb and Roy Halladay are all being picked behind Hamels in the fourth, with Dan Haren available a round later.

The Toronto Blue Jays were stuck between a rock and a hard place in 2008. The Jays were an excellent run-prevention club last season, surrendering just 610 runs (by far the lowest total in the game: the Dodgers finished a distant second with 648 tallies allowed). Toronto’s stinginess in permitting runners to cross home plate was a combined effort: the starters posted the third-best FIP in the majors (3.79), the guys in the ‘pen placed fourth (3.85) and the Jays flashed the leather, ranking third in Defensive Efficiency (.704). Despite tallying 86 victories and posting 93 Pythagorean Wins, Toronto finished fourth in the brutally competitive AL East.

Suffice it to say, things will not get any easier in 2009. With the Rays, Red Sox and Yankees all poised to approach or surpass the 90-win mark again, the Jays stand little chance of competing. Last year’s strong rotation will be missing a few key pieces- A.J. Burnett defected to the Bombers, Shaun Marcum will miss the season following Tommy John surgery, and promising power pitcher Dustin McGowan is still in the process of recovering from shoulder surgery.

With the back of Toronto’s rotation unsettled, the opportunity exists for one of the more underappreciated youngsters in the minors to make his mark. Brett Cecil might just be the best pitching prospect that few have heard of.

Plucked out of Maryland in the supplemental first round of the 2007 amateur draft, Cecil was a top closer for the Terrapins in college. However, the Jays noted the lefty’s promising four-pitch mix (low-90’s fastball, plus slider, curve, changeup) and sturdy frame (6-3, 220 pounds) and envisioned a future starter.

Cecil’s transition into the rotation has gone exceedingly well. Sent to Auburn (New York-Penn League) to start his professional career, Cecil mowed down less experienced players. In 47 innings, he whiffed 56 batters (10.15 K/9) while filling up the strike zone as well (1.99 K/9). His heavy fastball made many a hitter put the ball on the ground, as Cecil posted a 57.9 GB%. The Terp’s 5.09 K/BB ratio and 2.05 FIP impressed Baseball America, as the publication named Cecil Toronto’s second-best farm product (behind Travis Snider). BA predicted that “his frontline stuff and bulldog demeanor” would allow Cecil to become “at least a number 3 starter.”

The power southpaw began the 2008 campaign at High-A Dunedin, but his stay there would be short. After punching out 11 in 10.1 innings, Cecil was promoted to AA New Hampshire. In 77.2 innings with the Fisher Cats, he continued to miss a ton of bats (10.08 K/9), limit the walks (2.67 BB/9) and burn many a worm (59.2 GB%). Cecil’s FIP in the Eastern League was a sparkling 2.71. Continuing his rapid ascent, Cecil reached AAA Syracuse last in the season. He issued a few too many free passes (4.7 BB/9) in 30.2 innings of work, but continued to fool hitters and keep his fielders on their toes (9.1 K/9, 67.4 GB%). BA Ranked Cecil 3rd in the Jays’ system following the season.

Brett Cecil might not make the Blue Jays straight out of spring training, but there’s a lot to like here. The big lefty has a track record of punching out a plethora of batters, has solid control and also possesses strong groundball tendencies. High K and groundball rates- that’s a recipe for success in the major leagues. He might just be ready to the jump to the highest level, too. Cecil’s translated FIP (per Minor League Splits) was 3.94 in 2008, and Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA system pegs the 22 year-old for a tasty 3.54 ERA, 83 K’s and 34 BB’s in 90 innings in 2009. The groundball-centric hurler would also be flanked by plus defenders, as Toronto’s defensive alignment essentially returns intact.

Cecil might not come with the notoriety of a David Price or a Tommy Hanson, but he’s an intriguing arm in his own right. If you’re looking for a rookie starter who could hit the ground running, then Cecil is your man.

Now that we have covered the cases for Freddy Garcia (a former workhorse trying to get his career on track) and Tim Redding (attempting to make an impression with his 6th organization), let’s turn our attention to the man with a recent track record perhaps more dubious than either Garcia’s or Redding’s: Livan Hernandez.

Hernandez, who turned 34 this past week, has racked up an astonishing 2,551 innings during the course of his career. I described Garcia as a horse yesterday, but the Cuban-born Hernandez has eaten frames like few else since debuting with the Marlins as a 21 year-old in 1996. From 1998 to 2007, Livan topped the 200-inning mark every year, save for ’99 (he fell just short with 199.2 innings). His peripherals have never been all that spectacular (5.69 K/9, 3.08 BB/9), but his league-average innings-munching (4.44 FIP) provided a good deal of value to Florida, San Francisco, Montreal and Washington.

Since 2007, however, Hernandez has seen his K rate fall to untenable levels. After whiffing 5.33 batters per nine between the Nats and D-Backs in ’06, Livan posted 3.96 K/9 for Arizona in ’07 and actually saw that rate fall to 3.35 per nine this past season.

Hernandez’s FIP (4.94) wasn’t as bad as his six-plus ERA, but the 6-2, 250 pounder is clearly walking a tight rope. Relying primarily on a “fastball” with beer-league softball velocity (he threw the 83.7 MPH pitch 72.4% of the time in 2008, 5th-most among all starters) and supplementing the pitch with a soft mid-70’s slider (16.6%) and a softer mid-60’s curve (6.7%), Hernandez was by far the easiest starter to make contact with.

Opposing hitters touched Hernandez’s offerings 91.3% of the time, nearly three percent higher than second-place sinkerballer Aaron Cook. Splitting the season between Minnesota and Planet Coors, Livan managed to surrender a hit total that looks like a typo: 257 in 180 innings. His BABIP was .345, but Hernandez’s offerings are put in play so often that he’s going to be subject to the caprices of his defense.

Inked to a minor league contract that will pay him $1M if he’s added to the 40-man roster (plus $1M in possible incentives), Hernandez is assured nothing from the club, nor should he be at this point in his lengthy career. Livan has had a durable, productive stay in the majors, but his days as anything more than a replacement-level arm are likely over.

The Baltimore Orioles have multiple reasons to thank the Seattle Mariners, and right-hander Chris Tillman is one of the top gifts that the club received in the Erik Bedard trade prior to the 2008 season. Tillman’s minor league numbers were nothing special prior to the 2008 season, but he was a second-round pick out of a California high school in the 2006 draft.

Tillman posted a 5.26 ERA in High-A ball for the Mariners in 2007, but his FIP was significantly better at 4.43. He allowed 107 hits in 102.2 innings with rates of 4.21 BB/9 and 9.20 K/9. The right-hander jumped to Double-A for the 2008 season with the Orioles and Tillman allowed just 115 hits in 135.2 innings. He also posted rates of 4.31 BB/9 and 10.22 K/9.

Once Tillman’s control improves, he could be absolutely dominating with a low-to-mid-90s fastball and a curveball with plus potential. The change-up is still developing. Tillman performed well against both right-handed and left-handed hitters in 2008, although he allowed a HR/9 rate of 0.93 against RH batters, as opposed to 0.29 HR/9 against LH batters.

Tillman has a couple of fellow pitching prospects who will serve as competition for starting roles, including right-hander Jake Arrieta and southpaw Brian Matusz, the club’s top pick in 2008. The good news is that there are not many – if any – pitchers currently in the big club’s starting rotation that are secure in their roles (expect perhaps Jeremy Guthrie). Radhames Liz and David Hernandez are two other pitchers to keep in mind for rotation spots as well, and Liz already had a taste of the Majors.

If all goes well for the Orioles (But when does it with young pitching?), all five pitchers could be in the club’s MLB starting rotation by the end of 2010, and Tillman should be near the top of the list. As for this season, keep an eye on Tillman in the spring to see where he falls on the depth chart for a possible mid-season call-up. If he does hit the Majors this season, he could struggle a bit because of his control issues and inexperience. Expect about six wins, 100 innings pitched and 110 hits allowed, as well as rates of 4.50 BB/9 and 7.25 K/9.

Yesterday, we examined the multitude of questions facing the Mets’ rotation entering 2009 and examined fifth-starter candidate Freddy Garcia. Garica isn’t the only free-agent signee looking for a fresh start in Queens, however: Tim Redding will also vie for the last spot in the Mets’ rotation.

The 31 year-old Redding has been a roster nomad during the course of his career, not an altogether surprising turn of events for a hurler with a career 4.85 FIP. The Rochester, New York native was originally selected by the Houston Astros in the 20th round of the 1998 amateur draft. Redding pitched for the ‘Stros from 2001-2004, transitioning between the bullpen and the starting rotation. The right-hander generally didn’t find Enron/Astros Field/Minute Maid to his liking, as he posted inflated HR rates in three of his four seasons in the Lone Star State. He did turn in a decent 2003 season, however, with a 4.12 FIP.

Redding was shipped to the Padres in the spring of ’05 for Humberto Quintero, but scarcely pitched for the Fathers before being bartered to the Yankees during the summer. He posted a 6.61 FIP between the two clubs in 30.2 innings. Coming off of such a poor year, Redding accepted a minor league pact from the White Sox in 2006 and spent the entire campaign at AAA Charlotte. The veteran performed adequately, with 7.1 K/9, 2.69 BB/9 and a 4.07 FIP.

The pitching-starved Nationals came calling in 2007, and Redding joined the club’s AAA New Orleans affiliate to begin the year. Striking out 6.32 per nine innings and walking 2.41, Redding was called back up to the big leagues for the first time since his ugly ’05 stint with San Diego and New York. In 84 frames for Washington, Redding posted a 3.64 ERA. However, the underlying numbers were less impressive: with a 1.24 K/BB ratio (5.04 K/9, 4.07 BB/9), a 5.17 FIP and a low BABIP, Redding figured to regress in 2008.

Redding’s ERA did head north this past season, as his FIP (4.93) and ERA (4.95) were nearly a perfect match. The 5-11, 225 pounder did improve his peripherals somewhat, with 5.93 K/9 and 3.21 BB/9, though he did remain homer-prone (1.34 HR/9). However, despite Washington’s dearth of starting options, Redding was non-tendered by the Nats. He latched on to the Mets on a one-year, $2.25 million deal earlier this offseason. While one of Redding’s competitors (Garcia) has plenty of health issues to answer, Redding is not entirely in the clear either: Redding had surgery during the offseason to repair a stress fracture in his left foot and is now dealing with a sore shoulder.

A four-pitch guy (91 MPH curve, mid-80’s slider, high-70’s curve, low-80’s changeup), Redding lacks any definitive strength as a pitcher. His K rates are slightly below league average, his walk rate is ordinary and he’s a bit prone to grooving a pitch that ends up in the bleachers. That’s not to say he doesn’t have some value: the threshold for fifth starters is very low, and teams benefit from just getting better than replacement-level pitching from the spot. For fantasy purposes, though? It’s probably best to avoid Redding.

Entering the offseason, the Mets figured to address their wretched bullpen (25th in Win Probability Added in 2008). The team from Queens did just that, acquiring J.J. Putz from the Mariners in a 12-player bonanza and inking free-agent Francisco Rodriguez. However, there were also rumors of the club fortifying the starting rotation by courting free-agent sinkerballer Derek Lowe (now a Brave) as well as Ben Sheets (no longer feasible, given his torn flexor tendon injury that required surgery) . Instead, the Mets resigned Oliver Perez, whose occasional brilliance is supplemented with a boatload lot of walks and homers (Perez’s three-year Win Value totals: 0.0 in 2006, 2.2 in ’07 and 1.3 in ’08).

The Mets enter 2009 with an improved ‘pen, but there are a plethora of questions about the men asked to give six or seven strong innings prior to those high-profile relievers entering the ballgame. Changeup artist Johan Santana may no longer be the unstoppable force of his Minnesota days, but 85-90% of peak Santana is still one heck of a pitcher. Beyond that, each member of the rotation has a question to answer. How healthy is John Maine, who was bothered by a bone spur in his shoulder last season? Can Mike Pelfrey (4.93 K/9 in ’08) supplement his two-seamer with something that bends? Will the aforementioned Perez (retained for 3 years and $36M) be anything more than a well-compensated league-average starter?

New York also enters spring training with an open competition for the fifth-starter’s role, featuring a former rotation horse (Freddy Garcia), a Washington retread (Tim Redding), the most hittable starter in the game (Livan Hernandez), a southpaw prospect (Jonathon Niese) and another farm product whose stats have never matched his generous scouting reports (Robert Parnell). For now, let’s take a look at Freddy Garcia

Garcia, now 33, was once as durable as any starter in the game. The right-hander topped the 200-inning mark each season between 2001 and 2006, generally providing Fielding Independent ERA’s in the low four’s. Chief Garcia’s combination of quantity and quality made him one of the more underappreciated hurlers in the AL, as he provided an average of 3.6 Value wins over the 2002-2006 period. The Phillies acquired Garcia from the White Sox in December of 2006 (for package of Gavin Floydl and Gio Gonzalez), figuring that they acquired a guy who would give them 200+ innings of quality pitching.

Unfortunately, Garcia’s career has taken a sharp downward turn since that point. The Venezuelan tossed just 58 frames for the Phillies in 2007, suffering from biceps tendinitis in spring training before succumbing to labrum surgery in late August.

Garcia missed the majority of the 2008 season while rehabbing, latching on to the pitching-thin Tigers toward the end of the summer. He made three late-season starts, including one against his former employer, the White Sox. Freddy had to bow out of that game with shoulder soreness, then had a similar issue while pitching in the Venezuelan Winter League.

The 6-4, 260 pounder once sat in the low-90’s and supplemented the heat with a hard slider, but he sat in the upper-80’s with his fastball in ’08, with a softer, less-utilized slide-piece. Garcia has always possessed a wide array of offerings (fastball, slider, curve, change, splitter), and he relied upon the changeup/splitter heavily in his short stint last year. Garcia’s health will ultimately determine how much he can contribute, but there’s little harm in seeing if he can reclaim his career with little money guaranteed: according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, Freddy will make $1.5M if he’s added to the 40-man roster, with $6.5M in incentives possible. An MRI taken on Garcia’s shoulder in December showed no structural damage, which is certainly a positive.

The chances of Garcia becoming a 200+ inning starter again are very slim. However, he could provide some value to the Mets and fantasy owners if his shoulder allows him to continue his career.