Let’s take a look at our third group of fifteen starters, the SP3 tier. Predictably, by the time you are looking at your third or fourth fantasy pitcher, the candidates begin to thin out and the valuations of the players vary wildly. Consider that this tier goes all the way from Matt Garza (119.67 ADP) down to Wade Davis (306.98). One is a pitcher on the rise with plenty of reasons to for a fantasy manager to get excited, and the other is a youngster just battling for a spot on the roster. Let’s focus on two pitchers that stretch the range and might provide good return on your investment.

Scott Baker (148.34 ADP) is currently a relatively cheap pitcher, going in about the twelfth round of a twelve-team mixed league. You can denigrate his lack of strikeouts (6.88 K/9 career), but there are plenty of other things to like about this young man. Take his walk rate (2.05 BB/9 career), for example. It’s been virtually identical over the past two years, even (2.19 in 2008, 2.16 in 2009), so he’s got that going for him. If you’re looking for flaws, he’s certainly a fly ball pitcher (33.7% GB, 45.4% FB career) and he’s had troubles with the home run (see last year’s 1.26 HR/9) that have inflated his ERA from time to time. Those that follow the Twins might have heard this record before (see: Kevin Slowey).

It’s a little worrisome that he’s moving to a new park, but at least one person thinks will play as a pitcher’s park (AL Petco!). Either way, if the park plays at all similarly to the Mall of America Field, which played between a 1.11 and .896 park factor for home runs over the past three years, he should actually be in for some regression in the home run department. That regression could even get him back to his excellent 2008 levels. (A note: all but nine parks played within that range last year, so it’s likely that Target Field will, too. Also, climate and altitude, not explicitly covered in the above study, are a big part of how a park plays. Those should be similar in the new park.) He still limits walks, he still has a good fastball/slider combo, and he’s still getting batters to reach on 30+% of his pitches outside the zone. The possibility of a high-threes ERA and low 1.2s WHIP is worth a 12th round pick.

It’s not often that a pitcher improves his underlying statistics and loses ground in his more visible numbers, but Gavin Floyd (185.06) pulled off that feat from 2008 to 2009. Here is the full list of component statistics that Floyd improved: strikeout rate, walk rate, home runs per nine, ground ball rate, fly ball rate, O-Swing rate, and contact rate. You got that? And yet somehow, his ERA went up to 4.06 from 3.84 – mostly because his BABIP normalized (from .268 in 2008 to .292 last year). Since his ‘luck’ stats were about where they should have been last year, most of the projection systems say that Floyd will repeat his year, perhaps with a little ERA inflation due to the difference between last year’s nice home run rate (.98 HR/9) and his career number in that category (1.37).

Here’s one thing, though: Floyd has not yet figured out the optimal mix of his pitches. His fastball is not a great pitch (-46.3 runs for his career), and so he’s using it less (47.8% last year, down from 66.7% in 2006). For the last three years, the pitch has begun to find a niche around the scratch level (-4.9 runs last year), and his other pitches have zoomed forward in productivity as he has relied on them. His slider (+7.5 runs) and curveball (+14.1 runs) both hit career highs last year. Even though Floyd threw his fastball ninth-least in the majors last year, he could throw it less (!) since he once threw his curveball regularly over 20% of the time before settling in around 18%. The point isn’t to say that Floyd will throw the fastball less and the curveball more and succeed – the point is that he’s a pitcher available in the fifteenth round that has a floor around the low fours in ERA, should put up a WHIP lower than 1.3, and is not finished figuring out the optimal mix of his pitches. There’s value there, no?

Sunday was my final day with the FanGraphs crew in Arizona. We tried to see the Cubs-Angels game but it was sold out. So, to make Matt Klaassen happy, we ended up seeing the Royals for the second time, as they took on the A’s. Leaving aside the question if watching the Royals makes a fan of their team happy or not, the game did provide a nice opportunity to see two pitchers vying for a spot in the rotation.

The Royals are set at the top of the rotation with Zack Greinke and Gil Meche. But after that comes a host of interchangeable pitchers. The depth charts at MLB.com, CBS Sports, ESPN and Yahoo! each show Kyle Davies as having a starting spot. Davies got the start today but was ineffective. He allowed 6 ER, 7 H and 3 BB (no Ks) in 2.2 IP.

Davies was relieved by Robinson Tejeda, who did not make the top five in any of the above listed depth charts. Tejeda cleaned up the mess left by Davies and pitched 2.1 scoreless innings. He allowed just one hit and struck out two. Tejeda was much more effective, although he was helped greatly by two nice catches by center fielder Jarrod Dyson.

It is never a good idea to read too much into Spring Training outings, but is there any reason to believe that Davies is a better option for the rotation than Tejeda? In two-plus seasons with the Royals, Davies has never had an ERA below 4.06 or a WHIP below 1.451, both of which he posted in 2008. That season, Davies’ numbers look good due to a 6.9 percent HR/FB rate. His xFIP for that season was 4.82, right in line with his 5.08 career xFIP.

Meanwhile, in 60 games for the Royals covering 113 IP, Tejeda has a 3.42 ERA. Last year Tejeda had a 4.07 ERA as a reliever and then in six games as a starter, he went 3-1 with a 2.84 ERA. Overall, he posted a 3.54 ERA, right in line with his 3.60 FIP. Tejeda’s xFIP checks in at 4.47, as he had a 4.7 HR/FB mark. In 373.2 IP in the majors, Tejeda has a 7.8 HR/FB mark.

But even if his xFIP is indicative of his true talent (it was 4.46 in 2008), that still makes him a better option than Davies. With a mid-90s fastball, a slider and a change, Tejeda racks up the strikeouts because he can produce swings-and-misses. He had a 10.63 K/9 last year and a 71.7 Contact%. In 2008, Tejeda had a 70.7 Contact%. If he could do that over an entire season of pitching, that would be among the best marks in the majors, if not the best.

With Tejeda, the big thing is his control. He had a 6.11 BB/9 mark last year and in his career he has a 5.23 BB/9. Even in his successful stint as a starter last year, Tejeda allowed 20 BB in 31.2 IP. The danger is with all of those baserunners that Tejeda could implode with an unlucky year in HR/FB rate. The potential for disaster is even greater because he is a fly ball pitcher. Last year Tejeda had a 0.69 GB/FB ratio.

But he has never had a season like that in the majors. In five seasons in the bigs, Tejeda’s worst HR/FB mark was the 10.7 percent ratio he posted in 2007. In order to justify starting Davies over Tejeda, one has to assume that Tejeda will have a season like he’s never had before while also assuming the same for Davies, just in the opposite direction.

Davies’ problem is that his fastball is not an effective pitch. While he averaged 91.6 with his heater last year, he was 9.5 runs below-average when throwing his fastball. In his five seasons in the majors, his fastball has never been even an average pitch. Last year he tried throwing it fewer times but the results did not change.

Very few pitchers can throw a fastball 50 percent of the time or less and be successful. Those that are able to usually feature a cutter as their second main pitch. Only James Shields used his changeup as his second main pitch, as Davies hopes/needs to do. And even Shields throws his cutter nearly 20 percent of the time the past two seasons. Last year Davies introduced a cutter for the first time in his career and threw it 11.1 percent of the time. By Pitch Type Values it was a neutral pitch. If Davies is to succeed going forward, he will have to throw more cutters and have it be a plus pitch.

The odds are against Davies succeeding, based both on his past history and the lack of success with his fastball. Fantasy players would be better off drafting Tejeda hoping he gets a shot at the rotation and that he can at least curb his walk rate a little bit. While Tejeda is unlikely to be a star, he has a more likely path to success than Davies does.

Saturday the FanGraphs crowd caught the Texas-Cleveland matchup and saw strong performances from starting pitchers Justin Masterson and Brandon McCarthy. Masterson struck out six batters in 3.2 IP while McCarthy had 3 Ks in 3 IP and did not allow a run. Masterson solidified his place as one of the Tribe’s top pitchers while McCarthy helped his chances to land a spot in Texas’ starting rotation.

Over at Mock Draft Central they give an ADP for the top 454 players. McCarthy does not make the list. Some of the pitchers who are on the list ahead of him include Oliver Perez and his 6.82 ERA, Luke Hochevar and his 1.49 WHIP and John Lannan and his 3.88 K/9. McCarthy did not even get a write-up in FanGraphs Second Opinion. I think it is safe to say that he is not on most people’s fantasy radar at this point in time.

McCarthy has two things working against him: his injury history and his gopher ball tendencies. Last year McCarthy had his second stress fracture in his right shoulder and missed nearly three months of the season. He has been on the DL four times in the last three years, including two 60-day stints. In 2009, McCarthy had a 1.20 HR/9, a rate that would have ranked among the worst in the majors if he had enough innings to qualify.

While it remains to be seen if McCarthy can stay healthy, he got better as the season progressed last year in allowing homers. In April, McCarthy surrendered 6 HR in 22 IP. For the rest of the season he gave up 7 HR in 75.1 IP. McCarthy was at his best in September, after he came back from the stress fracture. In his final 33.1 IP, he allowed just 2 HR.

Now this could easily be just the results of a small sample. But one interesting note is McCarthy’s batted ball profile after he returned from the DL. He had a 49.1 GB%, nearly double of his mark in April (26.4%). McCarthy posted a 1.44 GB/FB mark, compared to a 0.92 GB/FB mark overall in 2009 and a 0.82 lifetime mark in the category.

After his return from the disabled list, McCarthy threw fewer fastballs and more of his off-speed pitches. His FB% was 40.3 percent in September, compared to 64.9 percent overall. He threw more of each of his remaining three pitches, with his change seeing the biggest increase. In the final month, McCarthy threw his change 23.6 percent of the time.

With an average FB velocity last year of 88.8 and a Pitch Type Value of -7.6 runs with his heater, McCarthy can afford to throw fewer fastballs. One thing to keep in mind is that there is some confusion about which pitches he actually throws. In the Associated Press story following Saturday’s outing, McCarthy said, “I really wanted to work on the cutter.” Meanwhile, neither FanGraphs nor BrooksBaseball.net show him throwing a cutter last year. Also, there was talk at the beginning of 2009 about McCarthy throwing a “slurve,” which further muddies the water.

Regardless of the terminology used, the bottom line is that McCarthy threw more grounders in the final month of the season last year. It’s too soon to draw any conclusions, but fantasy players should keep in mind that McCarthy may be a different pitcher going forward. If he continues with these ground balls, he could be a candidate for an early waiver wire claim.

Earlier today, R.J. Anderson took a gander at Kevin Hart, a fifth starter candidate for the Pirates picked up from the Cubs last summer. Hart’s main competition for that fifth spot is Pittsburgh’s far less famous McCutchen, Daniel McCutchen.

The 27 year-old heard his name called in four separate drafts before he finally signed on the dotted line. The Yankees popped McCutchen out of Grayson County (Texas) Community College in the 47th round back in 2003, but he didn’t come to terms with the club. Tampa Bay took a flyer in the 29th round in 2004. Daniel didn’t make a deal with the (Devil) Rays, though. St. Louis fared no better after selecting him in the 12th round in 2005. Finally, the fifth-year senior (having transferred to Oklahoma) came full-circle and inked with the Yankees as a 13th-rounder in 2006.

McCutchen’s career prospects perked up following a July 2008 trade that sent him from the Yankees to the Bucs. In the Bronx, the 6-2 righty was approximately eleventieth on the starter’s depth chart. In Pittsburgh, he has a far better chance to carve out a significant role.

McCutchen has generally mowed down hitters on his way to the majors. In 261 career innings at the Triple-A level, he has whiffed 7.2 batters per nine innings, while issuing just 1.6 walks per nine frames. His FIP in the International League is 3.80.

This past year, McCutchen managed to post the second-lowest percentage of balls thrown in the IL, while boasting the fourth-highest swinging strike rate to boot.

Pittsburgh called McCutchen up last August, and he posted a 5.19 FIP in 36.1 innings covering six starts (19/11 K/BB ratio, 6 HR surrendered).

While his work in Triple-A is promising, there’s a schism between McCutchen’s stats and scouting reports. His four-seam fastball sits high in the zone at 90-93 MPH, and he backs it up with a decent low-80’s slider and changeup. In ranking McCutchen as the #21 prospect in the Pirates’ system, Baseball America mentioned that he’s an “extreme fly ball pitcher” who lacks “a true swing-and-miss pitch.”

Those fly ball tendencies are troubling. During his minor league career, McCutchen has gotten grounders just 39.1 percent of the time. In Triple-A this past season, he burned worms at a 33.6 percent clip. If there’s a silver lining, it’s that PNC Park does a number on home run production. According to the 2010 Bill James Handbook, PNC has decreased dingers by 12 percent compared to a neutral venue over the past three seasons.

For 2010, CHONE projects McCutchen to compile a 4.66 FIP, with 6.26 K/9, 2.52 BB/9 and 1.4 HR/9. Whether he cracks the rotation out of Bradenton or not, McCutchen will likely take the hill as a starter at some point.

The “other” McCutchen won’t draw any rave reviews, though he could be useful in NL-only leagues if injuries leave you scurrying to the waiver wire. He’ll miss a modest number of bats and will occasionally get clobbered by the long ball. However, McCutchen’s stinginess with the walks and homer-suppressing home ballpark should make him an average, cheap starter.

This spring, Madison Bumgarner will compete with the likes of Todd Wellemeyer, Kevin Pucetas and Joe Martinez for the right to open the 2010 season in San Francisco’s starting rotation. Truth be told, it wouldn’t be much of a contest if ability were the sole consideration. But because workload and service time concerns also play a part in the decision, Bumgarner could end up back in the minors when the Giants head north.

Regardless of whether he cracks the roster from the get go, the 6-4, 215 pound lefty figures to see significant time in the big leagues this season. Is Bumgarner worth targeting on draft day? And, given the disagreement over his ceiling, is he an upper-echelon keeper league target, or merely a good one?

Plucked out of a North Carolina prep school with the 10th pick in the 2007 draft, Bumgarner was a prototypical projection pick: tall and lanky, able to pump premium gas in the low-90’s, and in the early stages of developing breaking and off-speed stuff.

In its draft coverage, Baseball America noted Bumgarner’s 92-94 MPH fastball (occasionally popping the mitt at 97 MPH). But BA also noted that he “tried multiple grips and shapes with his breaking ball, and at times has flashed a fringe-average pitch that has tilt and late snap at 81 mph,” and that his changeup was “a below-average pitch that should improve when and if he throws it more often.”

In 2008, Bumgarner made his pro debut in the Low-A South Atlantic League. He went all Randy Johnson on those poor Sally League hitters. Logging 141.2 innings, Bumgarner whiffed 10.42 batters per nine frames, while looking anything but raw in issuing just 1.33 BB/9. A very low homer rate (0.19 HR/9) contributed to the figure, but his FIP (1.71) looked like a typo.

Bumgarner shot to the top of prospect lists. Baseball America claimed that “there may not be a lefthander with a better fastball than Bumgarner’s.” He sat 93-94 MPH, again touching the upper nineties. BA said that his secondary pitches remained “a work in progress,” but they rated him as the ninth-best talent in the minors.

Bumgarner earned gushing reports from all of the prospect gurus:

Baseball America

“Bumgarner has all the gifts to be a No. 1 starter.”

Kevin Goldstein: #3 overall

“A tall, power left-hander with mid-90’s heat, a plus breaking ball, and impeccable command, Bumgarner was the best pitcher in the minors last year…”

Keith Law: #6 overall

The rudimentary secondary stuff plus his low arm slot had scouts — including me — assuming he was a long way away from the majors. His slider made enormous strides in his first full year in pro ball, and his changeup is now solid-average, no small feat for a pitcher who throws from a low 3/4 slot.

John Sickels: #14 overall (A Grade)

“Health is a risk as with any young pitcher, but incredible performance at a young age and improved secondary stuff stands out.”

This past year, Bumgarner began the year in the High-A California League, where he again made quick work of the opposition (24.1 IP, 23/4 K/BB, 2.05 FIP). Bumped up to the Double-A Eastern League, he posted a minuscule ERA (1.93). For the first time, though, his peripherals weren’t otherworldly.

In 107 innings, Bumgarner struck out a tame 5.8 hitters per nine innings, with 2.52 BB/9 and a 3.56 FIP. His searing fastball lost its second gear, sitting in the high-80’s during the second half of the season (some attribute the drop to too much throwing on the side). Called up to the majors in September to make one start and three relief appearances, Bumgarner tossed his heater at an average of 89.2 MPH.

Over the off-season, Bumgarner seemed to lose some of his luster with prospect evaluators:

Baseball America: #14 overall

“At his best, Bumgarner has shown a mid-90s fastball, a slider with good tilt and an average changeup…Bumgarner pitched at 88-90 mph for most of the second half of last season…His slider still isn’t a finished product and his changeup isn’t entirely trustworthy.”

Kevin Goldstein: #21 overall

“Scouts noted a consistent velocity drop that by the end of the year amounted to a full 5 mph.”

Keith Law: #28 overall

“Bumgarner took a big tumble this year when his velocity gradually declined the deeper he went into the season.”

John Sickels: A- Grade (no top 100 ranking yet)

“Almost went with B+, but strikeout rates aren’t everything. More concerned about dropping velocity.”

As Harry Pavlidis showed recently, concerns over Bumgarner’s lack of zip persist. It doesn’t seem unusual for a pitcher to show less-than-optimum velocity at the beginning of spring training. But given his sapped fastball speed last year, Bumgarner’s radar readings bear watching.

I wouldn’t recommend going out of your way to grab Bumgarner for 2010. CHONE is circumspect, projecting 5.93 K/9, 3.76 BB/9, 1.29 HR/9 and a 4.99 FIP. Given his good-not-great slider and changeup, Bumgarner would need to rediscover his ’08 heat in order to make waves in the majors.

For all of “the sky is falling” rhetoric surrounding Bumgarner, it is important to remember that A.) he’s just 20 and B.) he still ranked highly on all prospect lists. True, it is troubling that a pitcher known primarily for his lively fastball is having a hard time hitting 90. However, this could be a good time to nab the southpaw in a keeper league from an owner fretting over the curious case of Bumgarner’s velocity.

Keep an eye on the radar gun when Bumgarner pitches, but don’t abandon ship in keeper leagues while getting 70 cents on the dollar in return.

A few days ago, I highlighted some former top position prospects who once graced magazine covers and had fantasy players’ hearts aflutter, but have since fallen out of favor. Today, let’s do the same with starting pitchers. Here’s the Fallen Prospect Starting Rotation.

Clay Buchholz, Boston Red Sox

CHONE: 151 IP, 7.33 K/9, 3.52 BB/9, 1.07 HR/9, 4.27 FIP

When a much-discussed hurler gets the big league call and chucks a no-hitter in his second start, expectations can become so enormous that anything short of that pitcher becoming a Roger Clemens/Nolan Ryan love child seems like a let-down.

Buchholz, who turned 25 last August, has logged 190.2 innings in the majors from 2007-2009, with a 4.91 ERA. That screams mediocrity. But his peripherals are more promising. The 6-3 right-hander has struck out 7.65 batters per nine innings, while posting a 49.9 percent groundball rate. His control hasn’t been precise (4.11 BB/9), but Buchholz has a more palatable 4.13 expected fielding independent ERA (xFIP). Buchholz has performed like an above-average starter, but a .317 BABIP and a near 14 percent home run per fly ball rate have obscured his quality work.

Known for his diverse arsenal of pitches, Buchholz has succeeded in the majors with his slider (+2.30 runs per 100 pitches), curveball (+0.52) and changeup (+0.42). His fastball, on the other hand, has been more than a run below average (-1.04).

However, his heater velocity did perk up in 2009. In 2008, Buchholz threw his fastball for a strike 61.8 percent of the time. In ‘09, his fastball was thrown for a strike 65.9 percent. His ceiling is still wicked high.

Homer Bailey, Cincinnati Reds

CHONE: 158 IP, 7.35 K/9, 3.87 BB/9, 1.25 HR/9 4.66 FIP

The seventh pick in the 2004 draft won’t turn 24 until May, but his odyssey in pro ball has taken him from uber-prospect to perceived bust to promising, if unpolished starter. Bailey was beaten badly during his first two stints in the big leagues (5.59 xFIP in 2007 and a 5.16 xFIP in 2008). But in 2009, he turned in a quality season at the Triple-A level (89.2 IP, 8.23 K/9, 2.71 BB/9, 3.86 FIP) and pitched at a league-average level (4.58 xFIP) in the majors.

Bailey has a four-pitch mix, including a mid-80’s slider/cutter, high-70’s curve and a low-80’s changeup, but he chooses to fire his fastball well over 70 percent of the time. Like Buchholz, Bailey got some extra oomph on his fastball this past year, sitting 94-95 MPH instead of 91-92 MPH like in ’07 and ’08. He’s basically an average starter right now, with the upside for more than that if he makes gains with his control and secondary stuff.

Sean Gallagher, San Diego Padres

CHONE: 102 IP, 8.12 K/9, 3.97 BB/9, 0.79 HR/9, 3.91 FIP

A former Cub and Athletic picked up by the Padres last July, Gallagher scarcely pitched in 2009 after suffering a left knee injury. In 2008, though, the right-hander used his low-90’s gas, hard slider and slow curve to punch out 8.04 batters per nine innings in 115.1 IP with Chicago and Oakland. He does lose the strike zone often (career 4.93 BB/9), and lets hitters loft the ball frequently (35.8 GB%).

Gallagher will need to stop being so generous with the walks, but Petco Park should help mitigate those extreme fly ball proclivities, should they persist (his near-50 percent groundball rate in the minors suggests that his GB/FB split might not be that pronounced moving forward).

The 24 year-old is not currently penciled in to San Diego’s rotation. However, with Chris Young’s recent ailments, concerns over Mat Latos‘ workload and the checkered health history of Tim Stauffer, the out-of-options Gallagher figures to get a shot at some point.

Brandon Morrow, Toronto Blue Jays

Bill James (CHONE’s projection for Morrow comes in relief): 135 IP, 8.73 K/9, 5.27 BB/9, 0.87 HR/9, 4.34 FIP

Swapped from the Mariners to the Jays over the winter, Morrow has seen his development derailed by injuries, being shoved into the major league bullpen and indecision over his role: starter or closer, that is the question.

Toronto has spared us from any more rumination: Morrow, 25, will be a starter with his new organization. His ability to miss bats is unquestioned, but the former Cal star has to hone his control and prove durable (forearm and shoulder injuries have plagued him) if he hopes to become more than a hard-throwing curiosity.

Don’t be surprised if there are bumps along the way. Because Seattle’s former regime allowed Morrow to throw reallyrealyreally hard in the general direction of home plate out of the ‘pen, instead of building stamina and improving his breaking stuff as a minor league starter, the 6-3 righty remains green as grass.

Ian Kennedy, Arizona Diamondbacks

CHONE: 94 IP, 8.33 K/9, 3.93 BB/9, 1.05 HR/9, 4.20 FIP

A USC Trojan who terrorized minor league batters (9.9 K/9, 2.8 BB/9), Kennedy scuffled in limited time with the Yankees (5.84 xFIP in 59.2 IP) and was sent to Arizona as part of a three-team deal during the offseason. Kennedy’s ’09 season was quashed by surgery to repair an aneurysm under his right armpit.

A 6-0, 195 pound righty who relies far more on command than sizzling stuff, Kennedy sits 89-91 with his fastball and backs it up with a slider, curve and changeup. His Major League Equivalencies in 2007 (4.34 FIP) and 2008 (3.34 FIP) suggest that he could be a nifty back-end starter.

But, Kennedy faces a daunting task with the D-Backs. He’s a fly ball pitcher (career 39.7 GB% in the minors) headed to a park that, according to the 2010 Bill James Handbook, has increased run production by 15 percent and homers by seven percent compared to a neutral park over the past three years.

Brad Bergesen’s player profile here at FanGraphs has been playing mind games with me for a few days. Simply put, it’s tough to get a good handle on what to expect from this guy. I really do enjoy writing with conviction and drawing strong conclusions based on the data that is available here and at many other great baseball sites online. I believe in what I write and for many reasons.

But Bergesen is different. Rather than picking a side and determining if he can be successful or unsuccessful because of reasons X, Y, and Z there are good reasons on both sides of the ledger when it comes to Brad Bergesen. The former fourth round pick is coming off of a nice rookie year where he posted a 3.43 ERA in 19 starts before succumbing to a leg injury after taking a line drive off his shin on July 30. His peripherals tell another story…he had a 4.10 FIP and 4.42 xFIP.

xFIP is likely selling him short because his home run rate is being normalized. I personally don’t think that’s fair because Bergesen’s a sinker ball pitcher and has always prevented the long ball at each level of professional baseball save for a 17 inning High-A stint in 2008.

Bergesen is not a strikeout pitcher by any means but his minor league numbers may suggest that we could see a small uptick in strikeouts next season from his meager 4.74 strikeout rate. He’s always had plus-control and showed that skill last year in the big leagues. And then there’s his impressive 50% ground ball rate in 2009 which agrees with his minor league rates. Steady defenders Cesar Izturis, Brian Roberts, and Adam Jones up the middle of the diamond figure to assist Bergesen and his ground ball tendencies. His BABIP and left-on-base rates also check out quite normally.

There’s reason to believe that Bergesen could be a serviceable contributor towards the back end of your fantasy team’s rotation due to his plus-control, sinking fastball, home run suppression, and strong defense surrounding him. He has the makings to become a better version of beltway foe and Washington National, John Lannan. That’s all the good stuff.

When we shift to the other side of the ledger we see Bergesen’s very low and alarming strikeout rate in the big leagues accompanied with his fringey fastball velocity. And one has to wonder whether he can maintain a home run rate around 0.80. Even if that rate creeps up closer to the league average of 1.05 his numbers are going to suffer (as xFIP shows).

His plate discipline stats here show that he wasn’t fooling many major league hitters last year. Batters made contact with his pitches at a very above-average clip last season.

It’s going to be awfully interesting to see what Bergesen does this season and pitching in the AL East against superior opponents will not make his job any easier. As I’ve combed through above…he has his own set of pros and cons. After recovering from the freak leg injury he suffered a strange and funny injury over the winter but looks to be on schedule and should be a part of the Orioles rotation come opening day.

Perhaps we’ll be able to say a lot more about Bergesen next winter if he completes his first full season in the majors this year. This could all have boiled down to simply needing more data but for fantasy purposes we should be focusing most on what he can bring to the table this season. If Bergesen takes a few chinks in the armor this season (HR/9 or worse batted ball stats) then he will likely become a negligible pitcher in fantasy baseball.

But if he maintains a similar profile to last year then he’s certainly a serviceable pitcher (and much more valuable in real-life) at the back of your rotation and even more valuable in deeper leagues. I think the ball could fall on either side and it’ll be interesting to check back on The Bergesen Case next year. Nonetheless Bergesen is quite a fascinating pitcher and he’s likely to be found loitering on the waiver wire.

With the departure of delicate-yet-dominant righty Rich Harden via free agency, the Chicago Cubs have an open competition at the back end of the rotation. The candidates range from toxic (Carlos Silva) to infuriating (Jeff Samardzija) to intriguing (Tom Gorzelanny). Here’s a brief run-down of the hurlers vying to take the ball every fifth day for the Cubbies.

Picked up in the Milton Bradley deal with the Mariners, Silva should come with a Mr. Yuck sticker attached to him. The sinker-centric right-hander, 31 in April, was formerly a serviceable starter with the Twins, using pinpoint control (career 1.71 BB/9) to overcome an inability to make batters whiff (3.78 K/9).

The M’s inked Silva to a four-year, $48 million contract prior to the 2008 season, and he’s been beaten like he stole something ever since. An incredibly high BABIP and low strand rate masked what was another Silva-esque performance in ’08 (6.46 ERA, 4.64 xFIP), but he went on the DL with right biceps tendinitis in August. In 2009, he threw 30.1 grisly innings (5.53 xFIP) before succumbing to a right rotator cuff injury that limited him to just two more major league appearances. CHONE projects a 4.67 FIP next year. Even if he returns to form, he’s not a fantasy option.

Like Silva, Samardzija has come to be defined by the big bucks handed out for his services. The Cubs gave the former Notre Dame wide receiver a $10 million big league contract to eschew the NFL. Several years later, Chicago still isn’t sure what it has in the 25 year-old righty.

Samardzija had an underwhelming full-season debut in 2007, punching out 4.1 batters per nine innings, walking 2.8 per nine and posting a 4.73 FIP in 141.2 IP between the High-A Florida State League and the Double-A Southern League. Baseball America liked his heater for its combination of velocity and sink, but panned his inconsistent slider and changeup/splitter. “Samardzija,” BA said, is “still capable of becoming a frontline starter, a closer or a bust.”

In 2008, Samardzija missed more bats, but at the expense of control. Tossing 113.1 innings split between Double-A and the Triple-A Pacific Coast League, he had 6.7 K/9, 4.6 BB/9 and a 4.60 FIP. The Golden Domer also logged 27.1 major league innings out of the Cubs’ bullpen, with 8.13 K/9, 4.88 BB/9 and a 4.34 xFIP.

This past year, Samardzija shuttled between Iowa and Chicago. In 89 frames at Triple-A, he struck out 7.18 hitters per nine innings, issuing 2.73 BB/9 and compiling a 4.37 FIP. His major league stints didn’t go nearly as well. Samardzija was smacked for a 5.16 xFIP in 34.2 IP, with 5.45 K/9 and 3.89 BB/9.

Samardzija’s low-80’s slider (+0.17 runs per 100 pitches in the majors) and mid-80’s splitter (+0.95) have been effective, but his 93-94 MPH fastball (-1.09) hasn’t been as advertised. CHONE’s projection for Samardzija comes in relief, and it’s not especially sunny: a 4.74 FIP, with 6.92 K/9 and 3.88 BB/9. If you tack something like 0.75 to one run on to that to account for a shift in roles (The Book found that relievers shifting into starting roles generally perform about one run worse per nine innings), then things start getting ugly. Samardzija might be best off pitching in short stints.

Gorzelanny, meanwhile, was once a prized prospect in the Pirates organization. Armed with low-90’s velocity and a sharp slider, the left-hander displayed an exciting combo of force and finesse as he climbed the minor league ladder.

He pitched adequately in the bigs in 2006 and 2007 (with xFIPs of 4.88 and 4.82, respectively). However, a hefty workload in ’07 seemed to sap Gorzelanny of his former stuff: his fastball fell to the 88 MPH range and he walked nearly six batters per nine innings in 2008, posting a 5.84 xFIP in the process. He was booted to Triple-A in July (where he showed a pulse: 35 IP, 33/4 K/BB, 2.11 FIP) and suffered a left middle finger injury that sidelined him in September.

This past season, Gorzelanny started games at Triple-A Indianapolis, mopped up and got spot-starts for the Bucs in the majors, and was shipped to Chicago (along with LHP John Grabow) for righties Kevin Hart and Jose Ascanio, plus minor league INF Josh Harrison. The Cubs also split Gorzo’s appearances between the bullpen and the rotation.

The 27 year-old performed admirably at the Triple-A level, whiffing 8.79 per nine innings, walking 3.1 and compiling a 2.87 FIP in 87 innings. In 47 major league innings (seven starts, 15 relief appearances), Gorzelanny pleasantly punched out a batter per inning, while handing out 3.26 walks per nine with a 3.73 xFIP. His fastball velocity crept back up to 91 MPH. For 2010, CHONE forecasts a 4.43 FIP for Gorzelanny as a starter, with 7.39 K/9 and 3.61 BB/9.

It’s worth nothing that while “who’s the fifth guy?” makes for good spring training copy, every team ends up relying on those sixth, seventh and even eighth starters at some point. With Big Z becoming familiar with the DL (shoulder in ’08, hamstring and back in ’09) and Ted Lilly working his way back from knee and shoulder ailments, odds are that Chicago’s starting depth will be tested. Gorzelanny’s revived repertoire makes him the best best of those back-end options.

This is the first part of a series that will check up on injured players and recent injuries during spring training.

– Brandon Webb is working his way back from shoulder issues, and threw 43 pitches in a bullpen session on Sunday. He also threw 45 pitches in a previous bullpen session on Thursday. The D’Backs are trying to get him ready for some in-game appearances by mid-March, but that may be far too optimistic. Arizona has a shot to be good this year, and if they are smart they will baby him along and attempt to get 25-28 starts out of Webb this year. All looks well with Webb, but that’s what we thought going into last year, and continued to think that at times during the rehab process. If he looks healthy, take a shot at Webb.

– Brandon Inge is still going through the rehab process after undergoing surgery on both knees this offseason. Inge thinks he’ll be ready to start the year, but some Tigers officials aren’t as optimistic. Inge is “bored”, and that is leading him to try to come back from his injury quicker, which is not the best thing for him. During the first half of ’09, Inge was a stud, and it’s unclear if his second half was due to regression, injuries, or a combination of both. Now, with bad knees and lost catcher eligibility, he’s no longer draftable.

– After missing a vast majority of 2009, Daisuke Matsuzaka is continuing to work his way back for the 2010 season. He threw off a mound, although the catcher was standing, and also participated in some long toss. The Red Sox are willing to admit that Dice-K won’t be ready for opening day, but it looks like they hope he will be ready to go sometime in the first month of the season. The Red Sox may choose to go with a four-man rotation until Dice-K gets back on the mound, but they could also place Tim Wakefield in the starting rotation. Wakefield is always a strange fantasy pickup, but he could be a nice waiver wire guy for wins.

More injury notes:

• Jose Reyes tripled in an intersquad game yesterday. Hard to gauge a speed guy with a leg injury, but Reyes could be fantastic value in the late second round.
• Jesus Flores admitted that he won’t be ready for opening day. He has shown some promise in the past, but his shoulder problems combined with the arrival of Pudge will kill his value.
• After an early scare, Jair Jurrjens’ shoulder seems to be doing better. He is throwing from long distances and hopes to get on the mound next week. Until I see him on the mound, I’m skeptical.

The first three spots in the Houston Astros’ rotation are locked up. Ol’ reliable, Roy Oswalt, will be followed by Wandy Rodriguez and free agent pick-up Brett Myers.

Contenders for the back of the rotation include Brian Moehler, Wesley Wright, Bud Norris and Felipe Paulino. Both for the short and long term, the Astros (and fantasy owners) would be best off if Norris and Paulino snag those last two spots.

Norris, who turns 25 tomorrow, was Houston’s sixth-round pick in the 2006 draft. A short, stout righty (6-0, 225 pounds), Norris was tabbed as a future late-inning reliever because of his size and searing mid-90’s fastball. But while the Cal Poly product made his pro debut out of the ‘pen, he has been a starter ever since, as the Astros try to extract maximum value from one of the club’s few young building blocks.

In 340.2 minor league innings, Norris has struck out 9.5 batters per nine frames. His control hasn’t been particularly sharp, however, as he has issued 3.7 BB/9. This past year at Triple-A Round Rock, Norris notched 8.4 K/9, with four walks per nine innings and a 3.41 FIP.

Getting the big league call in late July, Norris slotted into Houston’s rotation (10 starts, one relief appearance). He tossed 55.2 innings, with 8.73 K/9, 4.04 BB/9, 1.46 HR/9 and a 4.38 xFIP.

Norris has a “hard, harder, hardest” repertoire, featuring a 94 MPH fastball, 87-88 MPH slider and an 86-87 MPH changeup. Opposing batters made contact 83.9 percent of the time against his stuff on pitches within the strike zone (87-88 percent MLB average), and 75 percent of the time overall (80-81 percent average).

Bud’s bugaboos are free passes and fly ball tendencies. He has never really been known for painting the black, and while his groundball rate in the minors was 47.4 percent, he burned worms at a 37.2 percent clip in the majors. It’s probably best not to read too much into that number, given the sample size. But it bears watching, given that Minute Maid Park has inflated home run production by eight percent compared to a neutral ball park over the last three seasons.

CHONE projects Norris to compile a 4.40 FIP in 2010, with 8.43 K/9, 4.14 BB/9 and 1.14 HR/9. He’ll miss bats, and he could be a nice addition to Houston’s staff if he can rein in the walks and not allow hitters to put that Minute Maid train in harm’s way.

Norris you probably buy. But Paulino, he of a career 6.40 ERA? Believe it or not, yeah. As Carson Cistulli pointed out earlier this off-season, there’s a big gap between Paulino’s results and the processes behind those results.

Inked out of Venezuela in 2001, Paulino is a 6-2, 260 pound leviathan who also comes equipped with radar gun readings that make scouts salivate. In addition to mid-90’s gas, he totes an upper-80’s slider, with an occasional mid-70’s curveball and mid-80’s changeup. He has punched out 8.4 batters per nine frames, with 4.4 BB/9 in 386.1 career minor league innings (71 starts, 32 relief appearances).

In the majors, Paulino has been pummeled. However, the 26 year-old’s peripherals paint the picture of a talented guy who’s been hosed by some terrible luck. In 116.2 innings (20 starts, eight ‘pen appearances), Paulino has 8.02 K/9, 3.39 BB/9 and a 4.23 xFIP. Yet, his ERA is nearly 2.4 runs higher, due mostly to a .353 BABIP and a 17.6 home run per fly ball rate. When a batter has put the ball in play against Paulino, hits have fallen as if Ichiro were perpetually at the plate. On fly balls, it’s as though Ryan Braun clones were lofting all of them. Those figures are bound to drop precipitously.

Like Norris, Paulino has been pretty hard to make contact against (85.1 Z-Contact, 74 Contact). And, like Norris, his biggest challenges will be honing his control and limiting those leisurely trots around the bases. CHONE envisions a 4.75 FIP for Paulino next year, with 7.81 K/9, 3.9 BB/9 and 1.35 HR/9.

The two have experienced some health problems. Norris was shut down a little early last year with right shoulder fatigue, and he missed some time in 2008 with a right elbow strain. Paulino missed nearly the entire 2008 season with a pinched nerve in his right shoulder, and served a DL stint for a right groin strain in 2009.

While neither hurler is a sure thing (is any pitcher?), Norris and Paulino have the punch out potential to be of use in NL-only leagues.