After a sluggish start, Jake Peavy has pitched near the level that should have been expected during his first full season on the South Side of Chicago. In the DH league and residing in a park in which more fly balls become souvenirs, Peavy has 7.82 K/9, 2.86 BB/9, 1.09 HR/9 and a 4.12 xFIP in 107 innings. Peavy may well be done for the year, however, as he suffered a detached latissimus dorsi muscle. With Peavy shelved, the White Sox may turn to top pitching prospect Daniel Hudson. Hudson hasn’t been named the guy to take Peavy’s scheduled Sunday start yet, but the club did pull him off the Futures Game roster.

Hudson, 23, was a fifth-round draft pick in the 2008 draft. Along with 13th-rounder Dexter Carter (who was actually part of the Peavy swap with San Diego), Hudson gave the White Sox a pair of sleeper prospects from Old Dominion. At the time Hudson was selected, Baseball America noted his sturdy 6-4, 220 pound frame frame, low-90’s velocity and promising secondary stuff. They did voice some concern about his throwing motion — Hudson was described as having “a long arm stroke in the back and a whipping sidearm motion through his release point,” which BA said led to life on his fastball but also inconsistent command.

After picking apart younger players in the Rookie-Level Pioneer League during the summer of 2008 (11.6 K/9, 2.8 BB/9 and a 2.81 FIP in 69.2 IP), Hudson made his full-season debut in the Low-A South Atlantic League in 2009. He didn’t stay there long, though — the right-hander zipped through Chicago’s farm system, appearing and dominating in the High-A Carolina League, Double-A Southern League and the Triple-A International League.

In 147.1 combined frames, Hudson whiffed 10.1 batters per nine innings, walked 2.1 per nine, served up 0.3 HR/9 and posted a 2.29 FIP. According to Minor League Splits, his park-and-luck-adjusted FIP was 2.90. Hudson’s overall line equated to a 3.60 major league FIP, per the same site. In September, Hudson completed his meteoric rise by reaching the big leagues. He pitched 18 innings for the White Sox, with a 14/9 K/BB ratio and a 5.62 xFIP.

Following that ’09 season, Hudson earned some prospect accolades. Baseball America named him the 66th-best prospect in the game, praising his 91-93 MPH heat and above-average changeup, while also mentioning that his low-80’s slider showed some promise (he also mixes in the occasional slow curve). John Sickels graded him a B+ prospect, calling Hudson a personal favorite.

With Freddy Garcia re-signing with the Pale Hose and the rest of the team’s starters remaining healthy (until now), Hudson has spent the entire season back at Triple-A Charlotte. Logging 93.1 innings, he’s got 10.4 K/9, 3 BB/9, 1.3 HR/9 and a park-and-luck-adjusted FIP of 2.90. Hudson’s work with the Knights translates to a 4.51 big league FIP, with 8.7 K/9, 3.9 BB/9 and 1.2 HR/9. CHONE’s updated rest-of-season projection for Hudson is similar — a 4.60 neutralized ERA, with 7.9 K/9, 3.7 BB/9 and 1.4 HR/9

The draft steal has shown an impressive ability to fool hitters, and he has shown solid control to boot. What’s concerning for fantasy owners is how Hudson’s fly ball tendencies (42.1 GB% in ’09, 40.7 GB% this season) will play in U.S. Cellular Field. If he does indeed get the major league call, expect Hudson punch out batters at a healthy clip, keep the walks at a reasonable level and serve up his far share of homers.

Though he’s still just 26 years old, Fausto Carmona has played many parts during the course of his pro career. The 6-4, 230 pound righty, signed out of the Dominican Republic back in 2000, once was a top prospect — his ground ball-generating sinker and impressive control (career 1.6 BB/9 in the minors) led Baseball America to name him the 76th-best prospect in the game prior to 2004. After a brief bullpen cameo with the Indians in 2006, Carmona blossomed into a front-line starter, racking up 4.2 WAR in 2007. But that success was short-lived — with those pesky midges seemingly stealing his ability to throw strikes, Carmona’s walk rate soared in 2008 and 2009. He posted just 1.3 WAR over that period, missing significant time with a left hip injury in ’08 and earning a punitive demotion to Triple-A in ’09.

In 2010, however, Carmona looks to be back on track. He’s got a 3.69 ERA in 109.2 innings, and he’ll head to Anaheim next week as Cleveland’s representative in the All-Star game. Is Fausto back? Digging a little deeper reveals a mixed bag of results — he’s clearly pitching better this season than in 2008 and 2009, but he’s not approaching that halcyon 2007 level of performance.

Back in ’07, Carmona supplemented a modest K rate (5.73 K/9) with excellent control (2.55 BB/9) and ground balls by the bucketful (64.3 GB%). The final product? A 3.88 xFIP in 215 frames. Carmona put plenty of pitches within the strike zone (51.4%, compared to the 50.3% average that season), but he still managed a league-average swinging strike rate of 8.6 percent. In 2008 and 2009, though, Carmona struggled to locate his pitches and got fewer batters to swing and miss:

In 246 combined innings in ’08 and ’09, Carmona struck out 5.01 batters per nine and issued 5.12 BB/9. His ground ball rate, while still strong, declined to 59.2%. With fewer whiffs and worm burners, as well as a walk rate that doubled compared to 2007, Carmona posted a cringe-worthy 5.05 xFIP.

This season, Carmona has improved — somewhat. His punch out rate has actually fallen again (4.68 K/9), and he’s getting swinging strikes just 6.3%. His ground ball rate (58.1%) is below that mid-sixties total from ’07 and comes in under his average over the ’08 and ’09 seasons, too (even so, Carmona’s GB% is fourth-highest among MLB starters). But most importantly, he has pared his walk rate down to 3.2 per nine innings pitched, while putting an above-average number of pitches within the strike zone (49.8%, compared to the 47.1% MLB average).

Not surprisingly, Carmona’s cut in free passes dished out is the result a sharper sinker. According to Pitch F/X data from TexasLeaguers.com, Carmona threw his fastball for a strike 60.2% of the time over the 2008-2009 seasons (62-64% MLB average), with batters swinging at 42.6% of the fastballs he threw (42-45% MLB average). So far in 2010, he’s throwing his fastball for a strike 63.9%, with hitters offering at 45.3% of those pitches.

Carmona’s xFIP is 4.54, certainly serviceable but not nearly as shiny as his current 3.69 ERA. His BABIP is .274, compared to a .299 career BABIP, and his home run per fly ball rate is 6.9% (10.7% career average, right around the MLB average). For the rest of 2010, ZiPS projects a 4.55 FIP for Fausto. It’s likely that once Carmona is done rubbing elbows with baseball’s elite at the Midsummer Classic, he’ll give up more hits on balls in play and won’t see as many fly balls die at the warning track.

Taking on the Cincinnati Reds on the Fourth of July, Ted Lilly got lit up. The 34-year-old lefty was lashed for nine runs in 6.2 frames, serving up four home runs. But, even after that drubbing, Lilly is seemingly enjoying another quality season. After opening season on the DL while recovering from off-season surgeries on his left shoulder and left knee, Lilly has a 3.76 ERA in 93.1 innings pitched. Look a little deeper, though, and there are concerns about his waning ability to fool hitters.

Like usual, Lilly is doing a fantastic job of throwing strikes. Placing 54.6% of his pitches within the strike zone (47.2% MLB average this season), Theodore Roosevelt is getting a first pitch strike 62.4% of the time (58.6% MLB average). He’s walking just 2.12 batters per nine innings. However, Lilly isn’t inducing as many whiffs this season. His swinging strike rate, which sat around 9.5-9.6% over the past two seasons, is 7.6% in 2010 (the MLB average has ranged from 8.3-8.6% over that time frame). Lilly’s contact rate was slightly below the 81% MLB average in ’08 and ’09, but batters are connecting 84.1% of the time this season.

Considering the tame velocity on Lilly’s fastball, you might assume that hitters rarely come up empty against the pitch. But that isn’t the case, as Lilly’s “heater” has generally displayed excellent whiff rates. In 2010, the whiff rate on his fastball is still above-average, but not to the same extent as in ’08 and ’09. Lilly’s low-80’s slider, slooow curve and high-70’s change haven’t induced many whiffs in recent years, and batters are missing those pitches even less this year. He’s throwing strikes with all his offerings, but he’s not getting hitters to come up empty:

(Pitch F/X Data from TexasLeaguers.com)

Given these trends, it’s not surprising that Lilly’s falling short of his projected K rate — ZiPS had a 7.54 K/9 pre-season punch out rate and CHONE predicted 7.75 K/9, but Lilly is whiffing 6.17 batters per nine innings. His fastball is averaging 85.9 MPH this season, a tick to two ticks slower than in recent seasons. The pitch has gained some speed in recent outings, though:

Lilly’s average fastball velocity by month (Baseball Info Solutions Pitch Data)

April: 85.1 MPH
May: 85.2 MPH
June: 86.5 MPH

(July’s velocity is not yet available, but TexasLeaguers’ Pitch F/X data had him sitting at 86.7 MPH).

Lilly’s current xFIP is 4.64, his highest mark since a 2005 season cut short by shoulder and biceps injuries. His .249 BABIP is fifth-lowest among qualified MLB starters. It’s true, Lilly has a career .284 BABIP. He’s an extreme fly ball hurler (32.4 GB% this season, 34.3 GB% career), and while fly balls are far more pernicious overall, fly balls do have a lower BABIP than grounders. Lilly also gets a lot of BABIP-killing pop ups — 14.1% for his career, and an insane 21.5% this season (7-8% MLB average). But even so, it’s likely that his BABIP is closer to .300 than .250 in the second half.

Perhaps Lilly’s still rounding into form after an off-season spent rehabbing, and his recent (relative) increase in fastball velocity will lead to improved whiff rates. Hopefully that’s the case — unless Lilly starts missing more lumber, his ERA is going to rise.

Some pre-All Star break changes to a few rotation spots…

Felix Doubront | Red Sox | 0% owned

All Star Clay Buchholz hit the disabled list with a hamstring issue, convenient timing for the Red Sox since he’s only likely to miss one start because of off days and the break. Doubront made a solid but unspectacular start against the Dodgers a few weeks ago, allowing three earned runs and eight baserunners in five innings of work. The hard throwing lefty gets the suddenly surging Rays (35 runs scored in their last six games) on Tuesday, and I can’t in good conscience advise starting a rookie on the road against a powerhouse team.

Barry Enright | Diamondbacks | 0%

A personal fave, Enright took the place of Dontrelle Willis in Arizona’s rotation, then went out and threw five innings of one run ball in St. Louis. The righthander’s minor league career featured very little in the way of strikeouts until this season (8.0 K/9), though he’s always been stingy with the free pass (1.9 BB/9). He strikes me as a lesser version of teammate Ian Kennedy, basically a more hittable and more traditional physically (6-foot-3, 220 lbs.). I like him as a matchup starter in an NL-only setup, though there’s no telling how many wins you’ll get with that bullpen behind him. Enright will start at home against the Cubs and Marlins before the break.

Jair Jurrjens | Braves | 61%

Back from a hamstring issue at the expense of Kenshin Kawakami (to the bullpen!), Jurrjens won’t, or at least shouldn’t be the 2.60 ERA guy he was in 2009 this year. The peripherals just didn’t line up. There was some BABIP (.273) and LOB% (79.4%) luck mixed in with the relatively low K/9 (6.36) and solid BB/9 (3.14), and xFIP had him at 4.34. I wouldn’t expect much more than a low-4.00’s ERA the rest of the way, especially after the injury. There’s value in that, but his perceived value seems to exceed his actual value. Jurrjens will pitch in Philadelphia in his last remaining start before the break.

Marc Rzepczynski | Blue Jays | 1%

Shaun Marcum is enjoying a fine first season back from Tommy John surgery (2.0 WAR), but he had to hit the disabled list with some elbow inflammation. Rzepczynski will fill in during his absence, though he could have had himself a rotation spot out of Spring Training if he didn’t break a finger trying to field a comebacker with his left (throwing) hand. Anyway, he was fantastic in 11 starts for Toronto last year (3.70 xFIP, 1.1 WAR) and strong in nine minor league starts this year, and should be good for on okay ERA with a fair amount of strikeouts the rest of the way. Not a fantasy star, but a viable option. Rzepcynski starts at home against the lefty heavy Twins on Wednesday.

Ownership rates are based on Yahoo! leagues.

Here is the latest update to Week 14 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

MIN – Carl Pavano
OAK – Trevor Cahill
WAS – Livan Hernandez
SEA – Erik Bedard
DET – Andrew Oliver
CIN – Travis Wood

Pitchers no longer scheduled for two starts

MIN – Kevin Slowey
DET – Armando Galarraga
MIL – David Bush
CIN – Edinson Volquez
SEA – Ryan Rowland-Smith
WAS – J.D. Martin

Pavano has hurled five straight Quality Starts and has gone 4-0 in that stretch. Both his FIP and xFIP are right in line with his 2009 numbers, but Pavano has seen his ERA drop from 5.10 last year to 3.30 in 2010. He’s been lucky with a .261 BABIP but he has also upped his GB% to 47.6 percent, his highest since 2005.

Cahill has a 2.24 K/BB ratio, up from 1.25 a season ago. While both his FIP and xFIP show a pitcher around a 4.00 ERA, Cahill’s actual mark is 2.74. He beat both his FIP and xFIP in 2009 and may turn into the rare pitcher who can do it on a consistent basis. A 54.3 GB% certainly helps and a .232 BABIP also holds down Cahill’s overall numbers.

Hernandez continues to confound the experts, who predict him to collapse virtually every outing. One thing that Hernandez does exceptionally well is take advantage of his home ballpark. He is 4-1 with a 1.75 ERA and a 1.135 WHIP in Nationals Park. On the road Hernandez is 2-3 with a 4.70 ERA and a 1.432 WHIP. This week he has home starts against the Padres and Giants.

Bedard is slated to come off the DL and make his 2010 season debut. He is trying to make it back from labrum surgery and has not pitched in the majors since July 25th of last year. Assuming no further setbacks, Bedard will get two home starts, but will have to square off against Zack Greinke and C.C. Sabathia.

Oliver was a second-round draft pick in 2009. He started his professional career in Double-A Erie this year and went 6-4 with a 3.61 ERA. In 77.1 IP, he had 70 Ks and 25 BB. Oliver has pitched well in his two starts for the Tigers but has yet to come away with a Win. A fastball-slider pitcher, Oliver has averaged 93.5 with his heater so far but his success will rise or fall with his breaking pitch.

Wood went 13-5 between Double and Triple-A last year and was 5-6 with a 3.12 ERA this year at Louisville. He made his major league debut July 1st against the Cubs and turned in a Quality Start, as he allowed just 2 ER in 7 IP but came away with a no-decision. Wood averaged 90.4 with his fastball but profiles as more of a finesse pitcher, as he also throws a cutter, change, slider and curve.

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 14.

John Ely – After three rough outings in the middle of June, the concern was that the league figured out Ely. But he has rebounded with two strong starts of 7 IP, 1 ER each with 11 Ks in 14 IP. Overall he has a 3.62 ERA with a FIP and xFIP that support those numbers. Make sure he is active for his home starts against the Marlins and Cubs this week.

Gavin Floyd – All year long Floyd’s peripherals have been better than his results. And in his last five games, Floyd has pitched very well, although he does not have the Wins to prove it. He is 1-1 in that stretch but with a 1.26 ERA with 7 BB and 33 Ks in 35.2 IP. Floyd has favorable matchups this week with two home starts, one against the struggling Scott Kazmir and the other against Anthony Lerew and the Royals. He needs to be in the lineup.

Derek Lowe – Seven times this season, Lowe has received six or more runs from the Braves offense, which explains how a pitcher with a 4.53 ERA has 9 W at the beginning of June. While Lowe has pitched much better since mid-May, he still has a 5.09 road ERA and this week has starts in Philadelphia and in New York. Put him on the bench this week if you have other options.

Wandy Rodriguez – 2010 got off to a rough start for Rodriguez and then a five game stretch starting in late May it turned even worse. In that span, he went 1-4 with a 10.03 ERA and a 2.100 WHIP. But Rodriguez has seemingly turned it around by allowing just 1 ER in his last 13 IP and has picked up Wins in his past two starts. Even while struggling, Rodriguez’ ERA at home is 1.17 runs lower, thanks to keeping the ball in the park. With home starts this week against the Pirates and Jeff Suppan and the Cardinals, look for Rodriguez to continue his strong pitching of late.

C.J. Wilson – He has pitched well both at home and on the road this year but Wilson has notched five of his six wins in Texas and he has a 6.98 K/9 in his home park. This week he is home against last-place Cleveland and last-place Baltimore, so Wilson needs to be in the starting lineup.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 14 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Sabathia, Halladay, Weaver, F.Hernandez, Hamels, Peavy, Niemann, Pelfrey, Vazquez, Garza, Silva, J. Sanchez, Richard, Kazmir, Sheets, Matsuzaka, Slowey, Wolf, Kennedy, Bumgarmer, Harang, Francis, Masterson, Gorzelanny, Galarraga, Padilla, Volstad, Millwood, Arrieta, Bush, Robertson, Bannister, Lincoln, Volquez, Suppan, Laffey, Litsch, Rowland-Smith, Beltre, Enright, Martin.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 12 pitchers and how they fared.

Davis – Advised to sit. 3.09 ERA, 6 Ks, 1.371 WHIP (2 starts)
G. Gonzalez – Advised to start. 2 W, 0.69 ERA, 11 Ks, 1.000 WHIP (2)
Moyer – Advised to start. 2 W, 1.80 ERA, 12 Ks, 0.600 WHIP (2)
Niese – Advised to start. W, 5.06 ERA, 9 Ks, 1.594 WHIP (2)
Vargas – Advised to start. W, 2.25 ERA, 9 Ks, 1.083 WHIP (2)

Atlanta Braves right-hander Tommy Hanson came into the 2010 season as a prized fantasy pick. Standing 6-6 and weighing 220 pounds, Hanson used low-90’s heat and a pair of plus breaking pitches to torture minor league hitters. The 22nd-round draft-and-follow selection from the 2005 draft punched out 10.7 batters per nine innings as a prospect, walking 3.1 per nine and compiling a 3.26 FIP. He then impressed as a rookie last season, posting a 2.89 ERA in 127.2 frames following an early June call-up. Hanson, according to KFFL, had a pre-season ADP of 64.

It seems disappointing, then, that the 23-year-old currently sports a 4.50 ERA in 90 innings pitched. Following two especially rough starts against the White Sox and the Tigers, a small number of angst-ridden owners have actually severed ties altogether — Hanson’s Yahoo ownership rate is 94 percent. What’s ailing Atlanta’s would-be ace? Nothing, really. He’s the same extremely talented, if rough-around-the-edges starter that garnered praise last season.

In 2009, Hanson had 8.18 K/9, 3.24 BB/9 and a 40.2% ground ball rate. This season, he’s getting more K’s (exactly one whiff per inning), walking 3.1 per nine innings and has a 37.8% rate of grounders. Hanson got swinging strikes 9.6% as a rookie (8.6% MLB average), and 9.5% during his sophomore season (8.3% MLB average). His contact rate is a bit higher — 77.2% in ’09 compared to 78.9% this season (80-81% MLB average), and he’s getting fewer first-pitch strikes (63.4% last year and 61.2% in 2010), though that’s still well above the 58-59% MLB average. Hanson’s xFIP is 4.11 this year, after he posted a 4.03 xFIP in 2009.

The main reasons for the wide disparity in Hanson’s ERA over the 2009 and 2010 seasons are his BABIP and strand rate. Last season, Hanson had a .280 BABIP. That’s not ridiculously low, given that he’s a pitcher who gives up a high proportion of fly balls. Fly balls, while far more harmful overall than grounders, have a lower BABIP than worm burners. In 2010, Hanson has been victimized by a .347 BABIP. That’s going to come down significantly — Hanson’s rest-of-season ZiPS projects a .292 BABIP.

His rate of leaving runners on base was very high last year (80.3%) and has declined to 69.8%. With runners on base in 2009, Hanson had 6.75 K/9, 4.22 BB/9 and a 4.81 xFIP, but he managed to avoid trouble due to a .230 BABIP. This year, he’s got 7.32 K/9, 3.66 BB/9 and a 4.63 xFIP, but his BABIP with men on has spiked to .342. Odds are, Hanson’s LOB rate remains closer to his current mark than that lofty ’09 figure, perhaps climbing to the low-seventies.

In both 2009 and 2010, Hanson has posted home run per fly ball rates well below the 11% MLB average — 6.9% last season, and 6.4% in his second go-around the majors. Turner Field did suppress home runs per fly ball hit by five percent over the 2006-2009 seasons, so it’s reasonable to expect his HR/FB rate to be slightly under the big league average. But he’s likely going to serve up more homers during the second half.

For the rest of 2010, I’d expect Hanson’s BABIP to greatly decline, his HR/FB to rise and his rate of stranding runners to remain close to where it currently is. He doesn’t have the skill-set of a sub-three’s ERA pitcher (who does?), but he’s also better than that 4.50 ERA indicates. At 23, with basically a season’s worth of innings under his oft-adjusted belt, Hanson’s pitching like a high-three’s-to-low-four’s ERA starter. That’s impressive, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him improve upon that level of performance as he gains more experience.

Arizona Diamondbacks purchased the contract of RHP Barry Enright from Double-A Mobile.

A second-round pick in the 2007 draft, Enright will make his major league debut this afternoon against the St. Louis Cardinals. Edwin Jackson was originally scheduled to start, but he was pushed back to Friday following his 149-pitch, eight-walk no-hitter against the Tampa Bay Rays on June 25th.

Speaking of walks, Enright basically refuses to issue them. The Pepperdine University product handed out 1.6 free passes per nine innings in college. Enright’s plus control endeared him to scouts, compensating in part for his modest stuff. Here’s how Baseball America described Enright at the time that the D-Backs popped him with the 73rd overall pick:

On a good day, Enright touches 90-92 mph with his fastball, but he pitches in the 87-89 range, and none of his secondary pitches–slider, curveball or changeup–excites scouts either…He improved his feel for pitching steadily through his college career and firmed up his body. His stuff, strike-throwing and bulldog nature profile him best as a middle reliever, but he’ll get a chance in the back of a professional rotation.

The 6-3, 220 pound right-hander made his full-season debut in 2008. Pitching in the High-A California league, Enright struck out 7.83 batters per nine frames, walked 1.92 per nine and posted a 3.52 FIP in 164.1 innings. His ERA (4.44) was considerably higher than his FIP, as Enright suffered from a .344 batting average on balls in play. BA named Enright the 11th-best prospect in Arizona’s system following the season, saying that he had a chance to be a back-end starter but also that his margin for error was thin.

In 2009, Enright moved up to the Double-A Southern League. His K rate took a hit (5.94 K/9), while he continued to be stingy with the walks (2.13 BB/9). Enright’s FIP in 156 innings was an even four. His prospect status took a hit — Arizona’s farm system did receive a big infusion of talent in the 2009 draft (Bobby Borchering, Matt Davidson, A.J. Pollock, Chris Owings, Marc Krauss and Mike Belfiore, among others), but Enright fell of the D-Backs’ top 30 list entirely.

The 24-year-old opened 2010 back at Mobile. In his second go-around the Southern League, Enright whiffed eight hitters per nine innings, walked 1.4 and had a FIP around 3.6 in 93.2 innings pitched. His ground ball rate did decline — Enright had a 42.8 GB% in ’08 and a 42.7 GB% in ’09, but he got batters to smack the ball into the grass 38.1% of the time in 2010.

What can we expect from Enright in the majors? According to Minor League Splits, Barry’s pitching with the Bay Bears in 2009 translated to a 5.38 major league FIP, with 4.4 K/9, 3.1 BB/9 and 1.3 HR/9. His 2010 pitching equates to 5.9 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, 1.1 HR/9 and a 4.48 FIP at the highest level. Before the season, ZiPS projected 4.9 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 1.4 HR/9 and a 5.06 FIP, while CHONE thought he’d get battered for a 5.73 FIP, with 5.3 K/9, 3.5 BB/9 and 1.8 dingers per nine innings.

Enright might be up for just one start, but mere competence today against the Red Birds could put him in line for a more prominent role. Dontrelle Willis, picked up from the Tigers for RHP Billy Buckner in early June, has a 12/27 K/BB ratio as a Diamondback. The formerly famous lefty has thrown 98.1 innings since the beginning of the 2009 season, and he’s got 5.69 K/9, 7.71 BB/9 and a 5.83 xFIP. It’s near impossible to make the case that he’s a major league-quality pitcher at this point.

With excellent control and quality secondary stuff, Enright has a chance to stick at the back of a big league rotation. But, with limited ability to fool hitters and fly balls tendencies, he’s hardly a sure bet to be a contributor in fantasy leagues. Pitching in a park that inflated run-scoring by 15 percent and home runs by seven percent over the past three years (per the Bill James Handbook) won’t help, either. Enright might have some value to the D-Backs, but should only be an option for pitching-starved NL-only owners.

Updates on four rotation spots, all in the NL…

Chad Billingsley | Dodgers | 87% owned

Just off a groin strain induced DL stint, Billingsley comes back just in time to face the Giants in San Francisco tonight. He was dealing with some bad BABIP (.332) and strand rate (69.2%) luck prior to going on the shelf, but (R) ZiPS projects a 3.41 ERA (3.38 FIP) with just shy of a strikeout per inning the rest of the way. After tonight, he lines up to start in Arizona and at home against the Cubs before All Star break.

Madison Bumgarner | Giants | 8%

The allure of top prospects can be too much to pass up at times. Bumgarner’s velocity mysteriously disappeared last season and really hasn’t returned yet, and to no surprise he’s yet to return to the 9.00 K/9 range once predicted for him. He held his own against the Red Sox in a losing cause yesterday (7 IP, 4 ER), but it’s hard to predict anything more than a mid-4.00’s ERA the rest of the way unless he bumps up the 6.4 K/9 he showed in Triple-A this season. His three starts before the break come at the Rockies, at Milwaukee, and at the Nationals.

Tom Gorzelanny | Cubs | 4%

Not only is Carlos Zambrano suspended indefinitely, but he’s headed back to the bullpen whenever he does return. Gorzelanny has pitched surprisingly well this season after some ugly years in Pittsburgh, posting a 3.41 ERA (3.82 xFIP) with more than a strikeout per inning. (R) ZiPS unsurprisingly sees a slight step back the rest of the way, but there’s no shame in having a 4.33 ERA (4.02 FIP), 7.75 K/9 pitcher on your staff. Gorz’s final three starts before the break comes against his former team, then at the D-Backs and at the Dodgers.

Bud Norris | Astros | 3%

Norris hit the DL with some biceps tendinitis, but returns to face the Brew Crew in Milwaukee tonight. His ERA was an unsightly 6.80 before the injury, but his peripherals were stellar: 4.03 xFIP, 11.13 K/9. Once his .400 BABIP and 58.9% LOB% regress back to normalcy, you’d got yourself a rock solid fantasy starter, albeit without many wins. (R) ZiPS predicts a 4.83 ERA (4.25 FIP), 8.61 K/9 the rest of the way, and after tonight he’ll start in San Diego and at home against the Cardinals before the break.

Ownership rates based on Yahoo! leagues.

Here is the last-minute look at the two-start pitchers for Week 13. First the starters who you may be on the fence about putting into your lineup:

Dallas Braden – Since pitching his perfect game, Braden is 0-5 with a 1.417 WHIP. In his last three starts, he has allowed 26 hits in 17.2 IP. Leave him on the bench for his two road starts.

Jason Hammel – Upon being activated from the disabled list in mid-May, Hammel is 5-1 with a 2.58 ERA. While he has not pitched well on the road this season, he does get a start in Petco to go along with his home outing against the Giants. Ride the hot hand and make sure Hammel is in the lineup.

Ted Lilly – The Cubs lefty has hurled a Quality Start in eight of his last nine outings. He also has 30 Ks in his last 35 IP, so the Ks are coming back, too. With two home starts, including one against the Pirates, Lilly needs to be in your lineup this week.

Brandon Morrow – Wherever he pitches, Morrow piles up the strikeouts, with a 9.86 K/9. But he has not been a road warrior in 2010. Morrow is 0-4 with a 7.09 ERA and a 1.848 WHIP away from Toronto. It’s tough to pass up the possibility of 15+ Ks, but that ERA and WHIP are potential staff killers. Deactivate Morrow this week if you can.

Joel Pineiro – In his last four games, Pineiro is 4-0 with a 2.08 ERA. He also is doing nice in strikeouts, with 22 Ks in 30.1 IP over that span. Activate him for his two home starts this week

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 13 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen during the week.

Jimenez, Wainwright, Carpenter, Lee, Cain, Gallardo, Strasburg, Liriano, Hughes, Haren, Hudson, Romero, Zito, Shields, Cueto, Leake, Nolasco, Buehrle, Carmona, Myers, Dickey, Billingsley, Bonderman, Takahashi, Matusz, Blanton, LeBlanc, Wells, Feldman, Correia, Kendrick, Blackburn, Parra, Westbrook, Maholm, LeRew, Norris, Karstens, Stammen.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 11 pitchers and how they fared.
Kuroda – Advised to sit. W, 1.50 ERA, 17 Ks, 1.000 WHIP (2 starts)
Marcum – Advised to sit. W, 2.25 ERA, 10 Ks, 1.250 WHIP (2)
Masterson – Advised to start. 5.54 ERA, 9 Ks, 1.385 WHIP (2)
J. Sanchez – Advised to start. W, 3.48 ERA, 10 Ks, 1.645 WHIP (2)
Wilson – Advised to start. 2.77 ERA, 10 Ks, 1.308 WHIP (2)