Here is the last-minute look at the two-start pitchers for Week 17. First the starters who you may be on the fence about putting into your lineup:

Jorge de la Rosa – After being lit up in his first two outings since missing two-and-a-half months with a finger injury, de la Rosa had a strong outing his last start, going 6 IP with 8 Ks in a no-decision. With home starts against the Pirates and Cubs, look for de la Rosa to bounce back into the win column this week.

Jon Garland – Regression has hit for Garland, as the early-season ERA which hovered around 2.00 is now up to 3.61, thanks to back-to-back month of ERAs over 5. But Garland still enjoys a big home/road split. He is 5-1 with a 2.51 ERA at Petco, where has both of his starts this week. Get Garland off the bench and into your lineup.

Jonathon Niese – In his last three starts, Niese has a 3.20 ERA with 18 Ks in 19.2 IP but is 0-2. He has had some gopher ball troubles in that span, allowing 5 HR during that stretch. But he has two home outings, where he has allowed just 4 HR in 55.2 IP. Niese has been pitching very well, and if he can avoid serving up homers, he should be able to come away with a Win this week to support his strong showing in the other categories.

Max Scherzer – Since returning to the majors on May 30th, Scherzer is 6-3 with a 2.54 ERA with 74 Ks in 63.2 IP. However, all three of his losses in that span have come on the road, where he has both starts this week. With visits to Tampa Bay and Boston on tap for Scherzer, you may want to remove him from your lineup if you have a reasonable alternative.

Carlos Silva – On July 6th, Silva picked up the win to up his record to 9-2 with a 2.96 ERA. But in his last two starts (one home, one road) he has allowed 11 ER in 2.1 IP, raising his ERA nearly a full run, no easy feat in the middle of July. Silva has had trouble with the gopher ball this year on the road, where he has allowed 5 HR in 42.2 IP, which has led to a 4.22 ERA away from Wrigley. This week he goes to Colorado and Houston. It does not seem like the week for Silva to get back on track, so keep him on the bench this week.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 17 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen during the week.
F. Hernandez, J. Johnson, Sabathia, Greinke, Liriano, Danks, Lee, Cain, Strasburg, Hamels, Nolasco, Weaver, Hanson, Garza, Vazquez, Floyd, Zito, Billingsley, Buchholz, J. Garica, Shields, Pineiro, Arroyo, Hammel, Wolf, G. Gonzalez, Blanton, Westbrook, Millwood, Duke, Chen, R. Lopez, Bergesen, Rowland-Smith, Wright.

Because of the All-Star break and no two-start pitchers, there is no update on how my picks went two weeks ago.

Luke Scott, Orioles (Owned in 19% of Yahoo leagues)

The Rodney Dangerfield of fantasy options, Scott has a couple of factors working against his gaining more notoriety — namely, he didn’t start getting meaningful big league playing time until he was in his late-twenties and he’s currently playing for the AL East’s resident doormat. But Scott could well provide a contending team with an upgrade at the trade deadline, and could do the same for fantasy owners willing to look past a lack of name recognition.

Scott’s got a robust .291/.357/.567 line in 277 plate appearances, good for a .396 wOBA. Despite being sidelined in early July with a strained left hamstring, the lefty slugger’s lumber has been +16 runs above average. While Scott might not keep flirting with a .400 wOBA, it’s not like his potent offensive showing is a fluke — he’s a career .268/.351/.504 hitter and holds a .364 wOBA. If you’re in need of some lightning in your lineup, you could do far worse than what Scott figures to provide for the rest of the season — .263/.342/.497 from ZiPS and .258/.332/.471 from CHONE. Give this guy a little respect.

Jason Hammel, Rockies (23%)

Liberated from the Tampa Bay Rays’ pitching factory in April of 2009, Hammel turned in a quality season as a full-time starter — in 176.2 innings pitched, he struck out 6.78 batters per nine innings, walked 2.14 per nine and compiled a 3.81 xFIP. While a right groin strain caused him to miss a few weeks earlier this year, Hammel is performing well again in 2010. The 27-year-old with sharp breaking stuff has K’d 7.5 per nine frames, issued 2.42 BB/9 and has a 3.72 xFIP in 104.1 IP.

Granted, those extra strikeouts might not stick. Hammel is actually getting fewer swinging strikes this season — 6.9%, compared to 9.5% in 2009 (8-9% MLB average). And, his 84.1% contact rate is higher than his 79.9% mark last year and the 81% MLB average. This increase in punch outs is due to more called strikes. Hammel’s getting a called strike 20% of the time in 2010, compared to 17.1% in ’09 (17% MLB average). Called strikes have a lower correlation with K’s than swinging strikes, so it’s unlikely that Hammel continues to fan so many. But even so, he’s a solid option. ZiPS projects 6.57 K/9, 2.57 BB/9 and a 3.95 FIP for the rest of the season, and CHONE has a forecast with 6.62 K/9, 2.6 BB/9 and a 4.22 neutralized ERA.

After what was probably Tim Lincecum’s worst major league start, Dave Cameron wondered if something’s wrong with San Francisco’s mop-topped ace with the acrobatic delivery. Cameron noted Lincecum’s month-by-month splits:

April: 1.78 BB/9, 10.85 K/9, 49.4% GB%, 2.25 xFIP
May: 5.70 BB/9, 9.91 K/9, 50.5% GB%, 4.10 xFIP
June: 3.38 BB/9, 9.56 K/9, 41.6% GB%, 3.23 xFIP
July: 3.38 BB/9, 7.09 K/9, 44.3% GB%, 4.06 xFIP

From 2007 to 2009, Lincecum had two months (June 2007, September 2007) where his xFIP was over 4.00. He’s now done it two of the last three months. He’s never had a month with a strikeout rate as low it is right now in July.

With Lincecum merely pitching very well as opposed to dominating, I thought it would be worth taking a closer look at the 26-year-old’s month-by-month performance. Here are his plate discipline stats:

Lincecum’s in-zone contact rate has climbed each month, and it’s actually above the major league average in July. Opponents are also putting the bat on the ball more on pitches out of the zone this month, which helps explain the lower K rate. His swinging strike rate has declined each month, sitting slightly above the MLB average in July.

He’s throwing more first pitch strikes, but they’re getting hit harder than is the case for most other pitchers. First pitches that batters decide to swing at are typically creamed, but even compared to the big league average, hitters are faring well vs. Lincecum on the first pitch. Baseball-Reference has a stat called sOPS+, which compares a pitcher’s performance in a given split to the league average. One-hundred is average, and more than 100 means a pitcher is doing worse than most. Lincecum’s sOPS+ on the first pitch is 159 this season. I doubt there’s much predictive value here, but it’s worth noting.

How about Lincecum’s Runs/100 values?

It’s important when looking at these numbers to consider that pitches aren’t thrown independent of one another. The effectiveness of one pitch affects the others, and game theory comes into play as well. It’s not as simple as looking at the chart, seeing a certain pitch is doing well on a per-pitch basis and concluding that the pitcher should toss pitch X more in place of pitch Y. Hitters become privy to changes and adjust, too. If a pitcher makes a change in pitch selection, the batter may notice and start looking for that pitch more often.

With that being said, Lincecum’s fastball has remained effective on a per-pitch basis, while his secondary stuff has posted below-average run values. In terms of pitch selection, Lincecum’s going to his fastball more and his changeup less. His percentage of fastballs thrown has gone from 52.9% in April to 58.7% this month, with his changeup percentage going from 26.3% in April to 20% in July.

While hitters aren’t doing a whole lot with Timmy’s fastball, they’re not whiffing at it as much — 3.1% in July, according to TexasLeaguers.com. That whiff rate was 5.4% in April, 8.8% in May and 6.6% in June (5-6% MLB average). His changeup was whiffed at 34% in April, 24.5% in May, 30.9% in June and 24.3% this month (12.6% MLB average). The whiff rates on his breaking stuff have typically been below-average throughout the year — 8.2% for the curve (11.6% MLB average) and 10.5% for the slider (13.6%).

Given the poor run values on Lincecum’s secondary pitches and the spike in contact (particularly on pitches thrown outside of the strike zone), it’s clear that hitters haven’t been fooled as much recently when Lincecum winds up and fires. That being said, it’s imperative to not make a rash decision based on what may very well be a temporary dip in performance. Even the best players in the game go through stretches during which they’re not at the top of their game. Lincecum has been one of the best pitchers on the planet since 2007, and making a knee-jerk transaction at this point has the potential to backfire horribly. Keep a close eye on The Freak, but don’t freak out.

If you happen to play fantasy football, then you’ve probably figured out that it’s really tough to win a league title with Peyton Manning as your quarterback. It’s not that he isn’t a great player, he obviously is. The problem is that the Colts always clinch a playoff berth only and rest their regulars during Week 17, championship week in fantasyland. Instead of getting a full four quarters (or more) worth of Manning, you’re getting a half or maybe even less. Tough to win with your best player on the bench.

The same theory applies in fantasy baseball, though the impact might not be as severe. Almost every team has implemented some sort of innings limitation on their young starting pitchers, likely shutting them down (or at least scaling back their number of starts) late in the season. That can be a problem for owners who have relied on these guys all season, and suddenly taken away come playoff time.

Replacing that kind of production is often impossible late in the season, so there’s not much more you can do than take the hit if you’ve waited to long to act. What can you do to prevent this? Simple, just trade them to an unsuspecting owner before your trade deadline. Enjoy as much as their production as possible, then spin them off before their team tightens the clamps.

Here are five young pitchers with fantasy value and upcoming innings situations that you may want to avoid. The IP totals listed included majors and minors.

Jaime Garcia | 2010 IP: 103 | 2009 IP: 37.2

Garcia missed basically all of the 2009 season after having Tommy John surgery, so his previous career high comes way back in 2006, when the tossed 155 IP. He does have two other seasons at 103.1 IP and 122 IP, so the century mark is nothing foreign to him. Tony LaRussa seemed to indicate that the team doesn’t have a set limit for Garcia this year, though they will take special care not over to overwork him.

Phil Hughes | 2010 IP: 106 | 2009 IP: 105.1

The Yankees have not put a number out there as far as Hughes’ cap for this season, but the general belief that it will be around 160-175 IP. If true, they’re using his 2006 career high total as 146 IP as his baseline. Unlike the sometimes comical Joba Rules, the Yanks have indicated that they’re going to take a more conventional approach when controlling Hughes’ workload, taking advantage of off days to skip his turn every so often. This plan is already in full effect, as the 24-year-old righty has thrown just 23.2 IP (four starts) over the last 31 days.

Mat Latos | 2010 IP: 106.2 | 2009 IP: 123

The Padres caught a bit of a break when Latos required a sneeze-induced DL stint, and it turns out he won’t even miss a start thanks to the All Star break and off days. Pitching coach Darren Balsley indicated before the season that the team would start to be careful with Latos once he gets to 150 IP, though they understandably have no plans to shut their best pitcher down once he reaches that total now that they’re in a pennant race. Expect San Diego to take advantage of as many off days as possible over the next few weeks, otherwise they’re going to have a problem on their hands come early September.

Mike Leake | 2010 IP: 114.2 | 2009 IP: 142

Leake’s IP total at Arizona State last season appears gaudy, and it is, but remember that he was working on a once-a-week schedule, not a once-every-five-days schedule. Those extra two days of rest between outings is a considerable difference. Dusty Baker said they’re going to skip Leake a few times, but declined to reveal a set innings cap. Speculation has it around 150-175 IP, which really isn’t that far off now.

Stephen Strasburg | 2010 IP: 104 | Career High: 109

Like Leake, Strasburg’s innings came on a once-a-week schedule in college last season. The Nationals have been pretty open about their plan for the young phenom, saying that they will start him on a regular five day schedule and simply shut him down when the time comes. Strasburg will be held to 150-160 IP or so, so he might be a fantasy non-factor by the end of August. He’s on the mound tonight, so that 2010 IP total is going up as you read this. His name alone will get plenty of attention if you place him on the trade block.

Three others worth mentioning are Jonathon Niese, Clay Buchholz, and David Price, but they’re in a little better shape than those guys above. Niese is already up to 102.1 IP this year (not counting tonight), but his career high is 178 IP back in 2008, which came before a 120 IP effort last season (with a hamstring injury mixed it). Buchholz has thrown 99.2 IP this season (counting today), and he threw a whopping 191 IP last season. Price tossed 162.2 IP last year, and is up to 120.1 IP this season. They’re good to go.

Right-hander Chris Tillman is expected to play a prominent role in the Baltimore Orioles’ attempt to climb from the depths of the AL East standings. The 22-year-old, picked up as part of the February 2008 Erik Bedard deal with the Seattle Mariners, has both the performance record and scouting reports to elicit the attention of fantasy owners everywhere. Yet, Tillman’s early turns in the big league rotation over the 2009 and 2010 seasons have been underwhelming — with a 5.24 xFIP in 90 innings pitched, he has been slightly worse than replacement-level. Why has Tillman scuffled so far, and what can be expected in the future? Let’s try to find out.

First, I’d like to point out that the MLB numbers to be referenced have occurred in 90 innings, spread over two seasons. It’s a woefully inadequate sample with which to make any sort of bold claim. I’m simply trying to explore why Tillman has performed poorly to this point. The fact that he hasn’t zoomed out of the gate doesn’t preclude him from becoming a quality starter down the line.

With that disclaimer out of the way, here’s a look at how Tillman’s major league peripheral stats match up with his Major League Equivalent (MLE) line, based on his pitching in the minors over the past two seasons. In other words, here’s how Tillman has pitched in the majors, compared to how we would have expected him to pitch based on his minor league stats:

Actual MLB: 5.1 K/9, 3.7 BB/9, 1.80 HR/9, 5.24 xFIP
2009-2010 MLE (based on 176 IP with the Triple-A Norfolk Tides): 6.57 K/9, 2.89 BB/9, 0.95 HR/9, 4.31 FIP

Tillman has punched out about 1.5 less batters per nine innings than his MLE suggests. The lack of whiffs is reflected in his plate discipline stats — opponents have made contact against Tillman 84.9% of the time they take a cut (81% MLB average). Tillman’s swinging strike rate is 6.2%, while the big league average sits between eight and nine percent.

Looking at his Pitch F/X data, he has garnered a below average number of whiffs with his 91-92 MPH fastball (reputed to be 94+ MPH in the past) and upper-70’s curveball. Tillman’s heater has been whiffed at 4.6% (6% MLB average), and his curve 6.8% (11.6%). His 79-80 MPH change has a 13.9% whiff rate, which bests the 12.6% MLB average.

Tillman’s walk rate is higher than expected, due at least in part to his getting behind the hitter right from the get-go. Tillman’s first pitch strike percentage in the bigs is 54.5%, compared to the 58% MLB average. According to Baseball-Reference, batters have gotten ahead in the count at some point in 38.1% of their plate appearances versus Tillman. The AL average, by contrast, is 35-36 percent. Tillman has been ahead in the count at some point in 24.8% of opponent plate appearances, while the AL average is 30-31%. He’s spending too much time in hitter’s counts and too little time in pitcher’s counts, which obviously influences both his punch out and walk numbers.

Going back to the Pitch F/X data, Tillman’s throwing lots of strikes with his fastball — 66.1%, compared to the 64% MLB average. But, our Pitch Type Run Values suggest hitters are slamming the offering. Tillman’s fastball has been -1.65 runs below average per 100 pitches. He’s not throwing his curve or changeup for strikes — 50.7% for the deuce (58% MLB average) and 57.4% for the change (60.7%). But those secondary pitches fare better in terms of run value (-0.09 for the curve, +0.43 for the change).

Homers have also been an issue. Tillman has coughed up 1.8 dingers per nine. His home run per fly ball rate is inflated, at 14.1% (the MLB average is about 11%). However, Camden Yards increased home runs per fly ball hit by 15 percent over the 2006-2009 seasons. And, Tillman gives up lots of fly balls — his GB% in the majors is just 38.1%, and it was 37.6% in Triple-A over the past two seasons. If he had given up home runs per fly ball hit at a league average rate (11%) on the road and about 13% at home, he would have been taken deep 16 times so far (1.6 HR/9), instead of 18. Given Tillman’s flyballing ways, he’s not a great fit for his home venue. Perhaps that’s part of the reason why he has been working on a two-seam fastball, an offering that generates more ground balls than any other pitch type.

Fantasy owners, particularly those in keeper leagues, should have patience with Tillman. He won’t turn 23 until next April, and he was considered a top 25 prospect by Baseball America as recently as last season. That being said, there are some concerns here — Tillman’s strikeout rate fell at Norfolk this season, his fastball velocity has been less than advertised and hitters often loft the ball against him, a negative considering his home ball park. In the present moment, expect adequacy instead of excellence — ZiPS projects 6.11 K/9, 3.21 BB/9, 1.29 HR/9 and a 4.69 FIP for the rest of 2010, while CHONE forecasts 6.14 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, 1.37 HR/9 and a 4.68 neutralized ERA.

Right now, Tillman isn’t showcasing the electric stuff that earned him the adulation of scouts. But keeper league players are best off holding tight and hoping that the mid-90’s heat and hammer curve return. Those just playing for the here and now should recognize Tillman’s lack of polish, while keeping a close eye on his outings. Pitchers don’t necessarily develop in a linear fashion; if he’s not hurt, perhaps Tillman’s just a mechanical tweak away from returning to form.

The first starting pitcher update of the so-called second half…

Josh Beckett & Clay Buchholz | Red Sox | 88% & 81% owned, respectively

The Red Sox are finally starting to get healthy. Buchholz is on track to come off the disabled list and start Wednesday against the Athletics in Oakland, which is a must start for fantasy owners. He’s only missed two weeks, so I wouldn’t worry about the hammy injury limiting his effectiveness or anything like that. You can’t pass up a matchup like that.

Beckett’s a different story. He’s been out since mid-May with a back issue, but even before the injury his peripheral stats were down from last year (-0.55 K/9, +1.41 BB/9, -4.3% GB%). Obviously the injury could have contributed to that. Beckett’s 7.29 ERA is largely a function of a .365 BABIP and 55.9% LOB%, but a return to his ~3.33 FIP form from 2007-2009 through the rest of the season isn’t a given. (R) ZiPS predicts a 4.32 ERA (3.42 FIP) and 8.38 K/9 the rest of the way, though I’d perhaps plan for a few less strikeouts. Maybe that’s just the conservative in me. He’ll reportedly start in Seattle on Friday, another must start even if he’s not the Josh Beckett of old.

Sergio Mitre | Yankees | 0%

The Yankees lost Andy Pettitte for what GM Brian Cashman called four-to-five weeks yesterday, so his spot will be filled by Mitre for the time being. He’s coming off the disabled list himself (oblique), and his two spot starts earlier this year were bad (4.1 IP, 4 R) and good (5 IP, 1 R). The sinkerballer won’t give you any strikeouts (5.46 K/9), though he’ll steal a few wins given the team around him if used properly. His next two starts come against the Royals and at Cleveland, solid matchups.

Rick Porcello | Tigers | 33%

Back up from his minor league crash course, Porcello gave up one run over eight innings against the Indians over the weekend, though he still allowed a fair amount of fly balls plus line drives (17) compared to grounders (11). The sinker is a huge part of Porcello’s success, so until he gets his ground ball rate back closer to 55% than 45%, we’re going to have to hedge our bets. Saturday was a good step forward, now let’s see some more. His next two starts come against the homer happy Blue Jays and the powerhouse Rays. Might want to leave him on the bench for those two.

Quick Notes: Wesley Wright will replace Brian Moehler in the Astros’ rotation and start tomorrow in Wrigley. Moehler hit the disabled list with a groin issue … Roy Oswalt is on target to make his next start (Saturday against the Reds) after taking a comebacker off his ankle yesterday … Scott Kazmir, both ineffective and injured, will be replaced in the Halos rotation by either Trevor Bell or Sean O’Sullivan. The team will announce who gets the start tomorrow, before their game against the Yankees … Mat Latos is expected to come off the disabled list in time for his start against the Pirates on Saturday. Between the All Star break and off days, he’ll end up missing zero starts … Jeanmar Gomez of the Indians was fantastic in his big league debut yesterday (7 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 4 K), but was optioned back to the minors today. He’ll be back up at some point, and I definitely dig him as a sleeper. Not a big stuff guy, but good command and a willingness to attack the zone.

Ownership rates are based on Yahoo! leagues.

Overall, the Minnesota Twins’ starting rotation has been excellent — the team boasts a 4.01 xFIP from its starters, best in the AL. But, while Francisco Liriano is re-establishing himself as an ace and Carl Pavano is thriving on the power of the ‘stache, the rest of the rotation is unsettled at the moment. Scott Baker has been hampered by poor outfield D, but he’s dealing with elbow tendinitis. Kevin Slowey’s vanishing ground ball rate has contributed to a so-so-season. Nick Blackburn, meanwhile, has seen his K rate enter untenable territory.

As such, the Twins are considering moving Brian Duensing back into the starting rotation, likely at the expense of Blackburn. If Duensing does make the shift from the ‘pen, what’s his fantasy value? Let’s take a closer look at the 27-year-old lefty.

Duensing was selected out of Nebraska in the third round of the 2005 draft. A 5-foot-11, 195 pound Tommy John survivor, Duensing was drafted more for his polish and proximity to the majors than for his stuff — Baseball America said he sat 86-90 MPH with his fastball and possessed a solid changeup. BA also voiced concern about the Cornhusker’s durability, as he had to miss the Big 12 Conference tournament due to lingering elbow soreness.

After carving up less experienced hitters in Rookie ball that summer (50.1 IP, 9.8 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 3.27 FIP), Duensing made his full-season debut in 2006. He jumped all the way from the Low-A Midwest League to the Double-A Eastern League, with a stop in the High-A Florida State league in between. In 160 combined innings, Duensing had 6.6 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, and 0.7 HR/9. According to Minor League Splits, his ground ball rate was 51.8% and his park-and-luck-adjusted FIP checked in at 3.87. After declining to include Duensing in its ’06 Prospect Handbook, BA rated him as the 18th-best talent in the Twins’ system prior to 2007. While noting that nothing in Duensing’s repertoire amazed scouts, BA claimed that “all his offerings — both two-and-four-seam fastballs that sit in the upper 80’s, a curveball, slider and circle changeup — grade out as average or a tick above at times.”

The next year, Duensing split the season between Double-A and the Triple-A International League, spending the majority of his time at the latter level. He whiffed 6.7 per nine innings, walked two per nine and gave up 0.8 HR/9 in 167.1 IP. Duensing got grounders 48.2% of the time while posting a 3.56 adjusted FIP. Baseball America bumped him up to eighth in Minnesota’s system, again lauding his four-pitch mix and quality control.

Duensing’s stock slipped a bit in 2008, as his strikeout rate took a tumble back at Rochester. He punched out five batters per nine innings, handing out 2.2 BB/9 and coughing up a homer per nine frames. Duensing continued to keep the ball down (51.7 GB%), but his adjusted FIP fell to 4.13. BA dropped him to number 16 on the Twins’ top 30 list, wondering if a move to relief might be in his future — Duensing reportedly sat 94 MPH with his fastball out of the ‘pen for the U.S. Olympic team in Beijing.

In 2009, Duensing divided his time between the Red Wings and the Twins. He had 5.3 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 0.2 HR/9 and a 46.2 GB% in 75.1 minor league innings. Adjusting for that tiny homer rate, Duensing’s FIP was 3.89. As a Twinkie, Duensing made nine starts and 15 relief appearances. He posted a 4.42 xFIP in 52.2 IP as a rotation member (his actual ERA was 2.72), with 5.64 K/9, 2.56 BB/9 and a 46.3% ground ball rate. Duensing had 5.74 K/9, 4.6 BB/9, a 44.2 GB% and a 5.36 xFIP in 31.1 innings as a reliever. His pitch selection between to two roles wasn’t especially different (he incorporated his curve more as a starter), nor was his fastball velocity (90.5 MPH out of the ‘pen, 91.3 MPH as a starter).

This season, Duensing has pitched exclusively in relief. The surface results look spectacular — a 1.67 ERA in 43 innings. His peripherals, by contrast, aren’t so special. Duensing’s got 5.65 K/9, 2.51 BB/9, a 49.6 GB% and a 4.24 xFIP. That svelte ERA is due in large part to a .241 BABIP and a 91.1% rate of stranding runners on base.

For the rest of 2010, ZiPS projects 4.83 K/9, 3 BB/9, 1.17 HR/9 and a 4.73 FIP from Duensing. That forecast comes in a swing role, so his projected FIP would be higher solely as a starter. CHONE has a more optimistic projection — 4.92 K/9, 2.81 BB/9, 1.03 HR/9 and a 4.59 neutralized ERA as a full-time starting pitcher. That’s basically the extent of Duensing’s utility — he could be an average big league starter. There’s nothing wrong with that from the Twins’ standpoint, as a passable rotation arm yet to reach arbitration has value. But fantasy owners shouldn’t get overly giddy about Duensing.

Here is the last-minute look at the two-start pitchers for Week 16. First the starters who you may be on the fence about putting into your lineup:

R.A. Dickey – The 35-year-old knuckleball pitcher has made 11 starts in the majors this year and has 9 Quality Starts. His only bad outing of the year (5 IP, 5 ER) came in Puerto Rico in a stadium which is not really up to major league standards. Dickey throws strikes, keeps the ball in the park and gets his share of ground balls. Even though he has two road starts this week, make sure he is in your lineup.

Tommy Hunter – Over the last two years (27 starts) Hunter is 15-6 with a 3.58 ERA, including a perfect 6-0 record this season with a 2.39 ERA. But Hunter’s xFIP is over two runs higher at 4.79, the exact same number it was in 2009. The good fortune comes from an 84.9 LOB%. But the real secret cannot be found in Hunter’s pitching record. Instead it comes from the Rangers’ offense, which gives him an average of 7.25 runs per game. It may be luck, but that is a very nice combination. Ride the streak and make sure Hunter is active for his two starts.

Jair Jurrjens – In three starts since being activated from the DL, Jurrjens is 2-0 with a 2.55 ERA. The overall numbers are still ugly but Jurrjens is getting his walks under control. Before going on the DL, he had a 4.13 BB/9. Since coming back he has allowed 7 BB in 17.2 IP. Last year he had a 3.14 BB/9. Neither the Padres nor Marlins are teams that draw a bunch of walks, with the Padres being essentially average while the Marlins rank 14th in the NL in bases on balls. Additionally, both teams are below average in runs scored. Jurrjens should be active this week.

Joel Pineiro – Three weeks ago Pinero was mentioned as a start option and he came through with flying colors. But this week fantasy owners should go the other way with the Angels lefty. Pineiro has a huge home/road split in 2010, with a 7-2 mark, a 2.37 ERA and a 1.105 WHIP at home but a 6.39 ERA and a 1.520 WHIP. This week he has road starts in New York and Texas. Put Pineiro on the bench this week.

Wandy Rodriguez – After 14 starts, Rodriguez had a 6.09 ERA and looked like a candidate to be dropped from the rotation. But in his last four outings, each a Quality Start, Rodriguez resembled the pitcher who appeared ready to become one of the top hurlers in the NL in the middle of 2009. Last year he had a 3.06 K/BB ratio. This year it is 1.93 in 101.1 IP. But over his last four starts, Rodriguez has 25 Ks and 6 BBs. This is the Rodriguez owners expected entering the year, so make sure to have him active.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 16 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen during the week.

Lincecum, Kershaw, Carpenter, Cueto, Jimenez, Hughes, Pelfrey, Silva, Matsuzaka, Leake, Baker, Bumgarner, Slowey, A. Sanchez, Cecil, Sheets, Kennedy, Davis, Moyer, Bonderman, Hudson, Fister, LeBlanc, Feldman, Bush, Francis, Kendrick, Tillman, Arrieta, McDonald, Galarraga, Robertson, Lincoln, Enright, Davies, Hawksworth, Karstens, Laffey, Litsch, Atilano, Martin, Pauley, Lerew.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. Since there was no two-start pitcher column for the All-Star break, there will be two week’s worth of results here.

Week 13
Braden – Advised to sit. Did not pitch – placed on DL
Hammel – Advised to start. W, 3.46 ERA, 12 Ks, 1.231 WHIP (2 starts)
Lilly – Advised to start W, 6.59 ERA, 8 Ks, 1.317 WHIP (2)
Morrow – Advised to sit. 6.00 ERA, 15 Ks, 1.583 WHIP
Pineiro – Advised to start. 2 W, 2.08 ERA, 7 Ks, 1.539 WHIP (2)

Week 14
Ely – Advised to start. 19.80 ERA, 4 Ks, 3.600 WHIP (2)
Floyd – Advised to start. 2 W, 1.23 ERA, 8 Ks, 0.955 WHIP (2)
Lowe – Advised to sit. 2.92 ERA, 10 Ks, 1.378 WHIP (2)
W. Rodriguez – Advised to start. W, 2.77 ERA, 16 Ks, 0.923 WHIP
Wilson – Advised to start. W, 3.38 ERA, 9 Ks, 1.125 WHIP (2)

Coco Crisp, Athletics (Owned in 8% of Yahoo leagues)

For Covelli Loyce Crisp to be relevant in fantasy circles, he does have to, you know, stay on the field. That has been a problem in recent years — the former Indian, Red Sock and Royal was limited to 215 plate appearances last season because of surgery to repair a torn labrum in his shoulder, and he was shelved this season until late May after fracturing his left pinky finger. Then, Crisp strained his right intercostal muscle, costing him another month’s worth of games. Recently, he has been battling a sore left hamstring .

While durability is a serious issue, Crisp does have something to offer owners. The 30-year-old has .372 wOBA in a very small sample (81 PA), with five stolen bases in six tries. Both his ZiPS (.250/.321/.400) and CHONE (.270/.345/.400) projections suggest he’s capable of being adequate offensively, and Crisp still possesses the speed to make some noise once he gets on base. He’s unreliable, but he can help out in the SB department without making outs at a Willy Taveras-like clip.

Brett Myers, Astros (22%)

Myers endured a disastrous 2009 season, missing a big chunk of time following right hip surgery in June and then straining his shoulder upon returning in September. His peripherals weren’t terrible in ten starts and eight relief appearances (6.37 K/9, 2.93 BB/9, 4.32 xFIP), but Myers coughed up a mind-boggling 2.29 homers per nine innings — 23.4% of the time a batter hit a fly ball against him, it left the yard. Philly’s 1999 first-rounder had long posted lofty HR/FB rates (15.5% prior to 2010, compared to the 11% MLB average), but that ’09 rate was absurdly high.

Over the winter, the Astros inked Myers to a one-year, $5.1 million deal with a mutual option for the 2011 season. The 29-year-old righty has already earned that cash, and then some — with 2.2 WAR, Myers’ performance has been worth $8.7 million. He has gone to his breaking stuff (a mid-80’s slider and a high-70’s curve) even more than usual this season, and that game plan appears to be working — according to Pitch F/X data from TexasLeaguers, Myers is throwing his slider for a strike 67.9% of the time (63.5% MLB average), and his curve is getting strikes 62.6% (58% MLB average).

He’s got 6.49 K/9, 2.72 BB/9 and an xFIP of exactly four in 129 innings. That HR/FB figure has plunged to 8.3%. That’s likely going to rise, and with it, so will Myers’ 3.35 ERA. But he’s capable of remaining an above-average starter. CHONE (4.60 neutralized ERA for the rest of the season) is skeptical, but ZiPS projects a 4.25 FIP. I’d lean more toward the latter projection.

The Los Angeles Dodgers are expected to recall right-hander James McDonald from Triple-A Albuquerque sometime over the next few days. McDonald, who was scratched from his scheduled Sunday start for the Isotopes, will likely take on the San Francisco Giants Monday night. The 24 year-old is stuck in between career stages — he’s got too much experience with the Dodgers to qualify as a prospect, but he has yet to establish himself in the majors, either. What’s his fantasy value? Let’s try to find out.

A two-way standout at Long Beach Poly High, McDonald was a draft-and-follow selection in the 11th round of the 2002 draft. L.A. opened up the check book after being impressed with his performance at Golden West (California) Junior College, handing the 6-5, 195 pound pitcher/outfielder a $150,000 bonus. McDonald began his pro career as a starting pitcher in 2003 (8.7 K/9, 2.8 BB/9 and a 3.33 ERA in 48.2 Rookie Level innings), but a bout of elbow tendinitis led the Dodgers to try him out as a position player. The results were disastrous — the lefty-hitting McDonald put up a sub-.600 OPS between the Rookie-Level Gulf Coast and Pioneer Leagues in 2004 and 2005. Convinced that McDonald couldn’t hit the heat, the Dodgers let him resume throwing it.

McDonald returned to the mound full-time in 2006 with a solid performance in the Low-A South Atlantic League. He struck out over a batter per inning (9.23 K/9), though his control was spotty at times (4.11 BB/9). Darnell McDonald’s cousin had a 4.00 park-and-luck adjusted FIP in 142.1 innings. James wasn’t back on the scouting radar, though, as he didn’t make Baseball America’s list of the Dodgers’ top 30 prospects following the ’06 season.

In 2007, McDonald emphatically announced his presence as a prospect. He dominated in 134.2 combined innings in the High-A California and Double-A Southern Leagues, posting rates of 11.2 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 0.9 HR/9 and a park-and-luck-adjusted FIP of 3.49. About the only concern was his ground ball rate — it fell from 43.9% in ’06 to 38.6% in ’07 — but that’s nit-picking when a guy pitches so well. Utilizing an 87-93 MPH fastball and a pair of quality secondary pitches (a mid-70’s curveball and a high-70’s changeup), McDonald climbed to number seven on L.A.’s prospect list. Saying that McDonald could be a future number three starter, BA praised his “above-average command of three average to plus offerings.”

Beginning to 2008 campaign back in the Southern League, McDonald punched out 8.6 hitters per nine frames, issued 3.5 BB/9 and gave up 0.9 HR/9. With his rate of grounders again declining (35 GB%), his adjusted FIP in 118.2 innings was 4.03. McDonald got bumped up to the Triple-A Pacific Coast League in August, but his stay there wouldn’t be long. After punishing PCL hitters with a 28/7 K/BB ratio and a 3.85 adjusted FIP in 22.1 innings (31.6 GB%), McDonald earned a big league call-up in September. He pitched in relief for the Dodgers, and he even got some postseason action — McDonald whiffed seven Phillies batters in 5.1 scoreless frames during the NLCS. After the season, BA boosted him to number two on the Dodgers’ prospect list.

The Dodgers had McDonald open 2009 in the big league rotation, but the club pulled the plug after a few shaky outings. He was shifted to the ‘pen for a while, but was then sent back to Triple-A to get stretched out. McDonald put up a 3.25 adjusted FIP in 30.1 IP for the Isotopes, with a 40/14 K/BB and a 25 GB%. But, when L.A. recalled him in late June, it was as a reliever. McDonald would go on to log 63 innings in the majors, striking out 7.71 per nine, walking 4.86 and surrendering 0.86 HR/9. With a neutral ground ball rate (44.3 GB%), McDonald had a 4.78 xFIP.

This season, McDonald missed time with a broken fingernail and a strained right hamstring. When on the mound for Albuquerque, he has compiled rates of 8.1 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, 0.6 HR/9 and a 4.39 adjusted FIP in 63.1 IP. McDonald has kept the ball on the ground more this year, with a 43.4 percent ground ball rate.

What can we expect in the majors, should he stick at the back of the Dodgers’ rotation? Prior to the 2010 season, ZiPS projected 7.44 K/9, 4 BB/9, 1.29 HR/9 and a 4.74 FIP for McDonald (CHONE’s forecast came as a reliever). At this point, he looks more like a league-average starter long-term, as opposed to a high-upside arm. McDonald’s curve and change allow him to miss an above-average number of bats, but his control is just so-so and his fly ball tendencies are somewhat worrisome, particularly in the present moment given the Dodgers’ lumbering outfield alignment — the team has the worst collective outfield UZR in the game.

McDonald’s an option in NL-only formats, though Manny, Kemp and Ethier likely won’t do him any favors. As for keeper leagues, he doesn’t really possess the sort of upside to make him a prime target.