A four-pitch lefty taken fourth overall in the 2008 draft, Brian Matusz shredded minor league bats during his pro debut — in 113 innings split between the High-A Carolina League and the Double-A Eastern League, the San Diego star whiffed 9.5 batters per nine frames, walked 2.5 per nine and compiled a 3.02 FIP. Matusz reached the Charm City less than a year after he and the Orioles agreed on a major league contract worth a little more than $3.4 million. He placed fifth on Baseball America’s list of the best farm talents in the game prior to 2010, and Matusz recently ranked #44 in Dave Cameron’s Trade Value series. Suffice it to say, Matusz comes with quite the prospect pedigree.

While there’s plenty of reason to believe he’ll emerge as a valuable commodity to the O’s and fantasy owners alike, Matusz holds a 5.11 ERA through his first 32 starts at the big league level. Now that the 23-year-old has pitched at the highest level for a little more than a year, this seems like a good time to examine what the former Torero needs to do to avoid getting gored by hitters.

Matusz has 7.12 K/9 and 3.36 BB/9 in 174.1 innings pitched. While he showed slight ground ball tendencies during his short stay in the minors (48.1 GB%), the 6-5 southpaw has gotten grounders just 35.4% of the time in the majors. That has led to his giving up 1.08 homers per nine innings, despite a home run per fly ball rate (8.5%) that’s below the 10-11% MLB average. All of those fly balls are concerning, given that Camden Yards increased the rate at which flies turn into souvenirs by 15 percent over the 2006-2009 seasons. If Matusz had given up home runs on fly balls at an average rate (11%) on the road and 13% at home, he would have served up over a homer and a half per nine innings instead.

In a couple of other respects, however, Matusz has been unlucky. He’s got a .331 BABIP, which is very high for any starter, much less an extreme fly ball pitcher. While the flies that aren’t caught are generally quite harmful, fly balls do have a lower BABIP than ground balls. Matusz’s BABIP on flies is .165, while the AL average is closer to .140. He also has a .781 BABIP on line drives, compared to the .720-.730 AL average. We don’t yet have enough information to say whether that’s noise or something more significant, but odds are his BABIP falls.

His rate of stranding runners on base (68.6%) my creep into the low-70’s, too — based on this formula developed by Dave Studeman, Matusz’s LOB rate should be closer to 71%. Overall, Matusz’s expected 4.65 FIP (xFIP), based on his rate of K’s, walks and a normalized HR/FB rate, is nearly a half-run lower than his actual ERA.

Matusz has gone to his 90-91 MPH fastball about 63% of the time, adding in a low-80’s changeup (19%), a mid-70’s curveball (10%) and a low-80’s slider (8%). That expansive repertoire has garnered swinging strikes at a near-average clip (8.3%). He’s putting plenty of pitches within the strike zone — 54.3% last year (49.3% MLB average in ’09) and 49.2% this season (46.8% MLB average). Opponents are making contact with those in-zone offerings just 85.5% (87-88% MLB average). However, they’re getting the bat on the ball often when swinging at pitches thrown off the plate. Matusz’s O-Contact rate was 65.7% last season (61.7% MLB average in ’09) and it’s 73.9% in 2010 (66.6% MLB average).

Against fellow lefties, Matusz is a monster (11.47 K/9, 2.39 BB/9, 3.18 xFIP). Right-handers, by contrast, aren’t trembling at the prospect of facing him (5.93 K/9, 3.62 BB/9, 5.06 xFIP). Check out his whiff rates by pitch type versus lefties and righties, from TexasLeaguers.com:

Keep in mind that the sample sizes aren’t massive here. That being said, opposite-handed hitters haven’t been fooled near as much, especially against Matusz’s fastball.

Brian Matusz remains a keeper-league favorite, but he’ll have to overcome his fly ball proclivities and find a way to make righties come up empty more often to take the next step in his career.

James McDonald, Pirates (Owned in 2% of Yahoo leagues)

I took an in-depth look at McDonald a couple of weeks before the Dodgers shipped the lanky right-hander to the Bucs (along with OF prospect Andrew Lambo) in exchange for reliever Octavio Dotel. The article’s main point still stands:

At this point, he looks more like a league-average starter long-term, as opposed to a high-upside arm. McDonald’s curve and change allow him to miss an above-average number of bats, but his control is just so-so and his fly ball tendencies are somewhat worrisome.

However, McDonald’s career prospects brightened considerably following that deadline deal. In L.A., he was an out-of-favor option for the back of the rotation. In Pittsburgh, he’s arguably the most talented arm on the staff. The 25-year-old has impressed his new club so far, posting a 20/4 K/BB ratio and surrendering five runs in 17.2 innings pitched. He’s sitting 92-93 MPH with his fastball, mixing in a sharp 12-to-6 curve and a fading changeup.

Don’t get carried away — it’s just three starts, and his rest-of-season ZiPS projection (7.1 K/9, 4.2 BB/9, 1.3 HR/9, 4.77 FIP) isn’t spectacular. But McDonald now has a clear shot at regular starts, and he’s young and gifted enough to garner interest in NL-only leagues.

Pedro Alvarez, Pirates (24%)

The second overall pick in the 2008 draft boasts excellent secondary skills, and he’s taking and raking so far in the majors. Alvarez is batting .255/.339/.453 in 218 plate appearances, walking 11.5% of the time and posting a .198 Isolated Power. That’s good for a .348 wOBA and a 118 wRC+. Pedro’s powerful cuts have come with plenty of whiffs, though — he’s just shy of Mark Reynolds territory with a 35.9% K rate and a 68% contact rate.

Still, as Reynolds, Adam Dunn and other hitters with Herculean pop prove, strikeouts don’t preclude a batter from being highly successful. This 23-year-old Vanderbilt product might not top the .250 range, but his patience and power make him worth a roster spot in mixed leagues.

Three guys coming off the disabled list and going back into their team’s rotations…

Homer Bailey | Reds | 5% owned

Out since May with shoulder inflammation, Bailey returned to the bump yesterday and fired six scoreless innings against the Marlins. He struck out four and walked none, though earlier in the season his BB/9 was over three-and-a-half. (R) ZiPS isn’t a fan, forecasting a 5.10 ERA with just 6.90 K/9 the rest of way, though I think Bailey could beat that and post an ERA in the mid-4.00’s with a strikeout rate closer to eight per nine. If you matchup him up against impatient teams that swing-and-miss a lot, he could give your club a real nice boost (think of it as Daisuke Matsuzaka vs. The Blue Jays Syndrome). Bailey’s next two outings come at the Dodgers and at the Giants.

Derek Holland | Rangers | 2%

Holland came back from his shoulder and knee issues just in time to take the place of the DL-bound Rich Harden, and will start Wednesday against the Rays. The hard throwing lefthander misses enough bats and doesn’t walk many, but he’s proven to be very homer prone in his short time in the big leagues. (R) ZiPS sees an unfriendly 5.40 ERA and 6.60 K/9, though I definitely think the strikeouts are a little light. The Rangers will win him a ton of games because of their offense and bullpen, so Holland still has fantasy value as a fifth or sixth kind of starter.

Kyle Lohse | Cardinals | 8%

Brad Penny isn’t coming back anytime soon and Jeff Suppan has mercifully been put to sleep placed on the DL, so Lohse is back from a forearm issue to drive Cardinals’ fans mad. He had his patented fourth inning meltdown yesterday against the Cubs (charged with five runs without recording an out in the frame). Lohse has always had good stuff, but his 3.78 ERA (3.89 FIP) year in 2008 sticks out like a sore thumb from the rest of his career. I wouldn’t touch him even in extremely deep or NL-only leagues.

Quick Notes: The Mets recalled Pat Misch but he’s non-rosterable … Jhoulys Chacin is going to fill-in for the injured Jeff Francis, and I’d expect more of what he did earlier in the year (4.04 ERA, 9.73 K/9) the rest of the way. Jump on it.

Ownership rates are based on Yahoo! leagues.

Considering that Cincy sits a game up on the St. Louis Cardinals in the NL Central and has a three-in-four-shot of making the playoffs according to CoolStandings, chances are we’re going to experience a Red October for the first time since 1995. While the Big Red Machine doesn’t have a stealth submarine on hand, the club does hope that the mended Edinson Volquez can be a secret weapon down the stretch. Six starts into his comeback, Volquez is displaying his typical bat-missing ability while understandably showing some rust as well.

The former DVD member scuffled in big cameos with the Texas Rangers from 2005-2007, striking out 6.2 batters per nine innings, walking 4.7 per nine and serving up 1.6 HR/9. His xFIP was 5.34. But he broke out upon being dealt to the Reds (along with Danny Herrera) for Josh Hamilton in December of 2007. Volquez posted a 3.88 xFIP in 196 innings during his first foray in the NL, with 9.46 K/9 and 4.27 BB/9. He got swinging strikes 11% of the time (8.4-8.6% MLB average recently), with a 73.8% contact rate (80-81% MLB average). Edinson’s brilliant work was worth 4.3 wins.

Unfortunately, Volquez would make just nine starts the following year. He wasn’t near the same dominant arm, putting up rates of 8.52 K/9, 5.8 BB/9 and a 4.62 xFIP in 49.2 frames. His swinging strike (10%) and contact (74.8%) figures remained stellar, but he just couldn’t locate. Volquez placed only 41.5% of his pitches within the strike zone (49.3% MLB average that year), compared to 49.6% in 2008 (51.1% MLB average). As a percentage of the big league average, his zone rate went from 97.1 in ’08 to a paltry 84.2 in ’09. Volquez was placed on the DL with lower back spasms in mid-May, but the big blow came after an aborted one-inning start against the Cards on June 1st. He needed Tommy John Surgery, as well as a repair of his flexor mass tendon.

Volquez’s rehab drew national headlines in April, as he was suspended for 50 games after testing positive for Clomid, an estrogen-blocking drug banned by Major League Baseball. Since he was out of action, the suspension cost Volquez cash (a little more than $130,000) but not actual game time. In 31 innings pitched between High-A Lynchburg and Triple-A Louisville, Volquez compiled a 28/8 K/BB ratio and surrendered just five runs.

The 27-year-old got the big league call in mid-July and has tossed 29.2 innings so far. Volquez has struck out over a batter per inning (9.1 K/9), with a 12.3% swinging strike rate and a 69.6% contact rate. But he’s also walking the yard (6.37 BB/9), the result of putting just 36% of his pitches in the zone (46.9% MLB average). That’s 76.8% of the big league average. Overall, his xFIP is 4.69.

While the sample size is small, Volquez has gotten grounders 56% of the time (44.5% prior to this season). Changes in ground ball rate gain some significance at 150 batters faced, so that’s worth watching for a guy making his home starts in a park that inflates HR production by 22 percent for lefty batters and 35 percent for right-handers.

In terms of stuff, Volquez is sitting at a typical 93-94 MPH with his fastball and getting whiffs 9% of the time with the pitch (6% MLB average). It appears as though he has nearly scrapped his slider in favor of a 77 MPH curveball, which is garnering whiffs 15% (11.6% MLB average). Volquez’s low-80’s changeup has a 20.5% whiff rate (12.6% MLB average). Of course, finding home plate has been an issue — the fastball has a 58.7% strike rate (60-62% MLB average), the curve sits at 50.4% (58%) and the change 55.6% (60.7%).

Given that we’re dealing with a month’s worth of starts, it’s best not to put a whole lot of stock in these numbers. But to this point, Volquez has exhibited a power arsenal, if little idea of how to spot his wicked pitches.

Injury info from the Baseball Injury Tool. Pitch F/X whiff and strike numbers from TexasLeaguers.

Here is the latest update to Week 20 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

KAN – Zack Greinke
COL – Jhoulys Chacin
CLV – Jeanmar Gomez

Pitchers no longer scheduled for two starts

STL – Adam Wainwright
COL – Jeff Francis
CLV – Josh Tomlin

Last year Greinke was the toast of the baseball world and this year he sits with a 7-11 record. There are three main reasons for the differences between the two seasons. First, Greinke is striking out fewer batters this year. After posting a 9.50 K/9 a year ago, Greinke has a 7.59 rate this season. Next, his home run rate has doubled from 2009, although last year was the outlier. This season’s 0.84 HR/9 is more in line with his lifetime 0.94 rate. Finally, after posting a 79.3 LOB% in 2009, Greinke is below average with a 65.5 strand rate this season.

After three starts in Triple-A to stretch out his arm, Chacin returns to the Rockies’ rotation after spending most of July pitching out of the bullpen. With four pitches, Chacin profiles as a starting pitcher but he needs to get his walk rate under control. While he has an impressive 9.73 K/9, he has a disappointing 4.15 BB/9, which would be the fifth-worst mark in the majors if he had enough innings to qualify. In seven games this year in the minors, Chacin has a 4.29 BB/9.

Gomez made headlines when he threw a perfect game for the Double-A Akron Aeros. After going 8-8 in Triple-A this year, Gomez has been a perfect 3-0 since joining Cleveland the third week of July. Gomez has a poor strikeout rate (4.63 K/9) but he gets groundballs (1.61 GB/FB), does not walk anyone (1.93 BB/9) and keeps the ball in the park (0.39 HR/9). Gomez has a 1.54 ERA but a 3.52 FIP and a 4.31 xFIP.

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 20.

Bronson Arroyo – He has gotten a decision in his last 11 games. This week Arroyo has two road starts but he has pitched better this season away from Great American Ball Park. Arroyo is 7-3 with a 3.53 ERA and a 1.065 WHIP in road action. Put him in your lineup this week.

Dallas Braden – Since returning from an elbow injury that required a DL stint, Braden is 3-1 with a 2.83 ERA. His K rate is a tick better at 5.9 percent but where he has really excelled is in limiting the gopher ball. In 35 IP he has allowed 3 HR. This week he has two home starts against the Blue Jays and Rays. While Toronto leads the AL in HR, it has done most of that damage at home, where it has clubbed 103 HR in 1,852 AB. Make sure Braden is active.

Jonathon Niese – In his last nine games, Niese has thrown a Quality Start in seven of them. The only two times he did not were against the Diamondbacks. This year he has an 8.68 ERA against Arizona and a 3.09 ERA versus the rest of the league. Niese has two road starts this week, but is road ERA (3.57) is nearly identical to his mark in pitcher-friendly Citi Field. The Mets are no longer talking about skipping Niese in the rotation and neither should you.

Wandy Rodriguez – In the middle of June, Rodriguez was 3-10 with a 6.09 ERA. From that point on, he is 6-1 with a 1.79 ERA, which is one of the most dramatic turnarounds you will see. He has a 5.4 K/BB rate with 59 Ks in 60.1 IP. His first start this week against Niese should be a dandy. Keep Rodriguez active.

Barry Zito – He has stepped up his game since the All-Star break, with a 2.57 ERA in six second-half games and a 7.93 K/9. But Zito has struggled in road games this year, with a 2-4 record and a 4.30 ERA. With road matchups this week against Roy Oswalt and Adam Wainwright, it might be a good time to stash him on the bench.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 20 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Sabathia, Lee Wainwright, J. Santana, Weaver, Price, Verlander, Kershaw, Hanson, Nolasco, Danks, Oswalt, Garza, Buchholz, Billingsley, Scherzer, B. Anderson, Vazquez, Baker, Marcum, Garland, Hunter, D. Hudson, Minor, Wells, Gorzelanny, Correia, Francis, Fister, McDonald, Volstad, Millwood, Tomlin, Olsen, Bergesen, Duke, Figueroa.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 18 pitchers and how they fared.

Cahill – Advised to start. 2 W, 6 Ks, 0.00 ERA, 0.765 WHIP (2 starts)
L. Hernandez – Advised to sit. W, 7 Ks, 1.26 ERA, 0.977 WHIP (2)
D. Lowe – Advised to sit. W, 5 Ks, 2.38 ERA, 1.059 WHIP (2)
Myers – Advised to sit. 6 Ks, 4.50 ERA, 1.250 WHIP (2)
Vargas – Advised to start. 2 W, 5Ks, 2.25 ERA, 1.083 WHIP (2)

The options on the wire are dwindling as temperatures hit their peaks. Here’s a pair of pitchers with low ownership rates could help the right team in the right place, though.

Jhoulys Chacin, Colorado (2% owned)
It looked for a second like Esmil Rogers was the one that would replace Aaron Cook, but that is no longer the case. The team just wanted Chacin to build back up the innings, as he had been in the bully for a little while. Chacin just went seven in the minor leagues and will take the next turn in the major league rotation. And, of course, he’s a really good pitcher that is borderline mixed league material. He’s already good – a 3.77 FIP in less than a hundred major league innings, with a nice strikeout rate (9.73 per nine this year) – but he can even be better. His minor league groundball percentage is 60.1%, and was 66.3% in Triple-A this year – so his major league number (44.7%) could easily improve. He also only walked 2.7 per nine in the minor leagues, but that number also creeped up as he advanced, so perhaps his current number (4.15) represents his actual talent level. No matter. If he strikes out a batter per inning and gets half of his balls on the ground, he’ll be a good pitcher. The key is the strikeouts. After only striking out 7.5 per nine over his minor league career, he’s been doing well in the majors. An 11.3% swinging strike percentage is both above average and a good harbinger of future strikeouts, though, so we’re betting on this young Rockies pitcher.

Jordan Zimmermann, Washington DC (2% owned)
Everyone’s been waiting on the other Nationals pitcher to join the big league team, but they are really babying their second ace. Wednesday marked the anniversary of his surgery, but he’s still pitching four innings at a time on his rehab stint. Compare him to Edinson Volquez, who had the surgery 374 days ago and has already made five starts this year. That’s what being competitive will do to you, perhaps. In any case, Zimmermann’s rehab has gone well. Usually it’s the control that comes back last, but he’s put up a 23-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 29.2 innings while rehabbing, which has to bode well. The strikeout rate and walk rate haven’t been quite as stellar at the higher levels of his rehab, but it’s time to see what he can do in the major leagues – or so says a fantasy manager. If he does come up soon, and can put up anything like his strikeout (9.07) and walk (2.86) rates of last year (his minor league numbers seem to suggest he can), he’ll be a good pickup in any league.

Ownership rates provided by Yahoo Fantasy Sports.

Another week, another starting pitcher update…

Jeremy Hellickson | Rays | 7% owned

Hellboy made a rather spectacular debut against the Twins last week (7 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 6 K), and now he’s back for more. The team has announced that he will start tomorrow in Detroit, with either Wade Davis or Jeff Niemann going on the disabled list with a shoulder issue (as of this writing, the team has not announced who it will be). Hellickson certainly has the tools to be successful, but we always have to be cognizant of the natural ups-and-downs a 23-year-old rookie will experience, especially in the AL East. By all means pick him up, but I wouldn’t start him against any great hitting teams until he proves he’s up to the task.

Following tomorrow’s start against the Tigers, he’ll then start at home against the Rangers and then in Oakland.

Scott Kazmir | Angels | 27%

How the might have fallen. Kazmir used to be a fantasy gold mine because he racked up the strikeouts like few others, but these days he has basically no value. I’ve seen a few owners grab him in hopes of a resurgence, but don’t fall for it. His swinging strike percentage is down for the fourth straight year, his walks are up, the homers are up, it’s just ugly. Kinda sad in a way, since Kazmir’s still just 26-years-old. He should be entering his prime right now.

James McDonald | Pirates | 1%

McDonald’s debut with the Bucs following the trade with the Dodgers was rather fantastic (6 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 8 K), and now that he has a clear opening for regular starts, we can start to talk about him as a viable fantasy option. His fantastic strikeout and walk rates in the minors (9.7 K/9, 3.4 BB/9) haven’t translated yet to the show, but he should settle in as a ~8 K/9 and ~4 BB/9 going forward. (R) ZiPS doesn’t like him the rest of the way (5.34 ERA, 5.08 FIP), but a low-4.00’s ERA is definitely possible in the NL Central with September call-ups not to far away. McDonald starts in San Diego on Wednesday.

Quick Notes: Jason Marquis is back for the Nats, but he’s basically non-rosterable … Esmil Rogers is filling in for the injury Aaron Cook, and although I like him as a sleeper for the long-term, I’d be careful this year.

Ownership rates are based on Yahoo! leagues.

Here is the latest update to Week 19 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

STL – Chris Carpenter
NYY – A.J. Burnett
ATL – Mike Minor
KAN – Bryan Bullington

Pitchers no longer scheduled for two starts

STL – Jaime Garcia
NYY – Dustin Moseley
KAN – Kyle Davies

After getting roughed up in back-to-back starts, Carpenter has ripped off five consecutive strong outings. In that span he is 3-0 with a 1.64 ERA. He has 8 BB and 23 Ks in 38.1 IP and has allowed just 2 HR. Overall, Carpenter has a 2.91 ERA but both his FIP and xFIP are nearly a run higher. This is due in large part to a 79.6 strand rate. This is the third consecutive season that Carpenter has posted a LOB% of 75.0 or greater.

After a horrendous June, where he lost all five games he started, Burnett has gotten back on track. In his last six games, he is 3-2 with a 3.98 ERA. Even with his recent string of better pitching, Burnett is still not racking up strikeouts like he has in the past. He has averaged 6.82 K/9 in his last six games, consistent with his 6.86 rate for the entire season. Burnett had his start pushed back due to a sore back, making him a two-start pitcher with two road games this week.

An injury to Kris Medlen and the almost non-existent usage of Kenshin Kawakami, which required a trip to the minors to build up arm strength, opened a spot in the rotation for Minor. The seventh overall pick in the 2009 Draft, Minor moves to the majors after going 4-1 with a 1.89 ERA at Triple-A. He had 12 BB and 37 Ks in 33.1 IP at Gwinnett.

Bullington has made five appearances for the Royals this season, all in relief. But he worked primarily as a starter in Triple-A, where he was 8-2 with a 2.82 ERA for Omaha. The first overall pick in the 2002 Draft, Bullington has not started in the majors since 2008. Lifetime he has made five starts in the majors and is 0-5 with a 7.15 ERA.

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 19.

Phil Hughes – After starting the season 10-1, Hughes is just 3-3 in his last seven starts with a 5.58 ERA. He has been hurt with the long ball recently, and has allowed 9 HR in 40.1 IP. But the HR problem is almost exclusively at home. Of the 16 HR he has allowed this season, 15 of them have occurred in Yankee Stadium. Hughes has two road starts this week, including one against the Royals. His road ERA this year is 2.61 so make sure he remains active even despite his recent struggles.

Mike Leake – In his first 11 starts, Leake was 5-0 with a 2.22 ERA. In his last nine starts, he is 2-3 with a 6.11 ERA. Over his last 53 IP, Leake has allowed 10 HR and 19 BB, compared to 28 Ks. In his first 73 IP, he surrendered just 4 HR. Nine of his 14 HR allowed have come at Great American Ball Park and Leake has two home starts this week. Slide Leake to the bench if at all possible.

Vin Mazzaro – In seven of his last eight games, Mazaro has hurled a Quality Start. He has a 4-2 record with a 3.10 ERA in that span. Most of that good pitching has come against sub-.500 teams but Mazzaro does get a game against the Mariners this week. Activate him this week, look for a good first start and then root for the Mr. Hyde half of Scott Baker to show up in Mazzaro’s second outing.

Vicente Padilla – Since returning from a two-month stint on the DL, Padilla is 4-2 with a 1.80 ERA. In 60 IP he has 13 BB and 52 Ks. Yet he is owned in only 62 percent of CBS Sports leagues and is starting in just 38 percent. It’s a tough week for Padilla, with two East Coast road starts. His road splits are not pretty, but the majority of that damage came the first two games of the season, when he gave up 11 ER in 8.2 IP. Since he faces Kyle Kendrick and Mike Minor this week, the matchups are not awful so pick him up from the waiver wire and make him active.

Mike Pelfrey – In the beginning of the season, Pelfrey was riding high as the addition of a splitter helped him get off to a fast start, where he was 4-0 with a 0.69 ERA and a save in his first five outings. But since then he is 6-6 with a 5.04 ERA, or pretty much the same guy who went 10-12 with a 5.03 ERA in 2009. In his last seven games, Pelfrey is 0-4 with a 9.00 ERA. He has 16 BB and 14 Ks in 30 IP in that span. This is an easy bench. And even if you think he is bound for regression – he does have a .468 BABIP in his last seven games – there are rumors that the Mets might skip one of his starts.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 19 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Lincecum, Jimenez, Price, Lester, E. Santana, J. Garcia, Dempster, Matsuzaka, Romero, Bumgarner, Baker, A. Sanchez, Jackson, Strasburg, Kennedy, F. Garcia, Zambrano, LeBlanc, Masterson, Matusz, Kendrick, Enright, Fister, Norris, Narveson, Galarraga, Parra, Arrieta, Moseley, Karstens, Davies, O’Sullivan.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 17 pitchers and how they fared.

de la Rosa – Advised to start. W, 3.29 ERA, 13 Ks, 1.317 WHIP (2 starts)
Garland – Advised to start. W, 3.53 ERA, 11 Ks, 1.184 WHIP (2)
Niese – Advised to start. W, 6.10 ERA, 3 Ks, 1.839 WHIP (2)
Scherzer – Advised to sit. 3.00 ERA, 11 Ks, 1.333 WHIP (2)
Silva – Advised to sit. W, 5.06 ERA, 4 Ks, 1.688 WHIP (2)