Both Jonathon Niese and Madison Bumgarner are young lefties having solid seasons, and are going to be kept in a number of leagues. But, what if you have both and have to pick one over the other? We need to examine both Niese and Bumgarner and decide who will be a better player next year, and a couple of years down the road.

Numbers
Niese and Bumgarner’s numbers are nothing spectacular, but when you combine all of their peripherals together, you get a solid pitcher. Niese has a strikeout rate north of 7.5 K/9, with Bumgarner unable to reach the 6.5 mark. Since his strikeout rate is lower, Bumgarner’s walk rate needs to be lower, which it is. Bumgarner walks about two batter every nine innings, while Niese walks about three. This means that Bumgarner’s K/BB is significantly better, coming in around three, while Niese isn’t even at 2.5. That’s Bumgarner’s biggest, and possibly only advantage. Both get enough ground balls to keep me off their case, and Niese’s 47% isn’t leaps and bounds better than Bumgarner’s 45%. Both have FIP’s and xFIP’s close to 4.00, so it’s hard to get a read on who could be better based on the pure numbers. This is where a tool like pitch f/x comes in handy.

Arsenal
Guess what? Their arsenal’s are pretty similar, too. Even with all of the talk about Bumgarner’s velocity, his fastball is hovering around 91 mph this year, and that includes his two-seamer. Niese sits in the 89-90 range, and doesn’t throw his fastball for strikes as often as Bumgarner. Niese also throws a nice slutter, and that is his only pitch with a positive run value. He does a great job of controlling it and getting whiffs, so that shouldn’t be a shock. None of Bumgarner’s secondary offerings are anything special, but he does a good job of throwing them all for strikes. However, Niese has great movement on his curveball, and while it’s whiff% is nothing to write home about (although maybe I just did?), it could be special if he can do a better job of controlling it.

Conclusion
Bumgarner is only 20, while Niese is already the ripe old age of 23. They both have the same physical build, but they use it in different ways. Since I have to pick one, I’d take Niese over Bumgarner because I think he can learn to control himself and lower his walks while upping his K’s, and I don’t know if Bumgarner will ever become more of a strikeout pitcher. If you can, grab both, but I’d rather have Niese.

When the Arizona Diamondbacks received Daniel Hudson from the White Sox in exchange for Edwin Jackson, there were questions about Daniel Hudson major league future, namely about his potential. We knew what he could do in the minors, but needed an extended major league stint to truly value his long-term value.

From a less nerdy, and more scouty perspective, Hudson has a very low arm-angle when he pitches, especially for someone who stands 6’4”. While it’s not what I would recommend, it could be one of the reasons he fools hitters. His fastball sits at 92 mph, and he compliments it with a changeup that has some nice arm-side run. In fact, if he qualified, it would be the best change in baseball, thanks to a nice 26% whiff rate.

One of the biggest concerns surrounding Hudson was his extreme fly ball tendencies. While his tiny GB% will help his BABIP thanks to Arizona’s impressive outfield defense, it will lead to allowing more homers, a problem that while manageable, could be a big deal because of where he plays.

It really doesn’t matter what you look at, Hudson has been fantastic this year. He’s striking out almost a batter an inning, limiting the walks, and going deep into games. Sure, he’s had some luck on his side, but you can’t ask for much more from a pitchers who only 23. But we still haven’t answered the essential question: What’s his potential, and what’s his keeper value?

Like I said in Friday’s chat, I don’t think Hudson can be an Ace. However, he can be a good number two or three starter on a good team, and he’s a guy you will want pitching in the playoffs. While he’ll never have an ERA as low as it is now, he could easily win 12-15 games with an ERA under 3.50 as early as next season. Because he wasn’t drafted early this year, he has fantastic keeper value going into next year. He won’t be cheap in drafts, but if you already have him on your roster, keep him there as long as possible.

Rotation updates from around the league for those of you still battling it out in the playoffs…

Jair Jurrjens | Braves | 63% owned

Jurrjens will miss his scheduled start tonight against the Phillies because of a knee issue that will require at least an MRI, and will be replaced by rookie righthander Brandon Beachy. I plan on looking at Beachy a little more tomorrow, but grabbing him for the start tonight is probably a bad idea. A rookie in Philly in the middle of a pennant race against Cole Hamels? Eh, might be better to pass on that.

Andy Pettitte | Yankees | 76% owned

Out since mid-July due to a groin injury, Pettitte returned yesterday and didn’t miss a beat. He limited the Orioles to one run through six innings, exiting the game only because he was on an 80 pitch count. The Yankee bullpen blew his win, but that’s part of life. Pettitte should make two more starts this season before the playoffs, one at home against the Red Sox and one on the road against the Blue Jays. Considering how well he’s pitched this year (2.81 ERA, 3.90 FIP), start start start.

Joel Pineiro | Angels | 18%

Like Pettitte, Pineiro returned to his team’s rotation this weekend to perform admirably: two runs in six innings against the Rays. Out since late-June because of an oblique issue, Pineiro’s extreme strike-throwing and groundball approach limits his fantasy value because he is a bit hittable (and by extension, certain prone to allowing plenty of runs) and doesn’t strike anyone out. However, Pineiro’s a good play because his final two starts come against the White Sox and Athletics, hardly offensive powerhouses.

Chris Young | Padres | 10%

The 6-foot-10 righthander finally returned to San Diego’s rotation this weekend, more than five months after his first (and only other) start of the season. Young allowed one run in just four innings of work against the Cardinals on Saturday, and it appears that his days as a low-to-mid-3.00’s ERA guy are behind him. The fastball is closer to 85 than 90 and his walk rate continues to go up, and he’s always been an extreme flyball pitcher in part due to his height. Young is a complete unknown at this point, and his last two starts comes against the Reds and Cubs at Petco. Start him at your own risk.

Quick Notes: The Mariners have hinted at limiting Felix Hernandez’s workload the rest of the way, which could mean skipping his final start, scheduled for the last day of the season … Jaime Garcia will have his start skipped on Thursday, the second straight time the team will sit him in an effort to control his workload. Even if comes back to make another start at some point, there’s no guarantee that he’ll be effective given the layoff … Jason Hammel is battling a cold and what he calls a “dead arm,” but right now the team plans on having him make his next start on Saturday.

Here is the last-minute look at the two-start pitchers for Week 25. First the starters who you may be on the fence about putting into your lineup:

Gavin Floyd – Perhaps no pitcher in baseball this year has been more Jekyl and Hyde than Floyd. In his last seven starts he had back-to-back starts where he gave up 13 and 11 runs bookend three straight Quality Starts. While going either way with him seems a risky proposition, I think he should be on the bench this week with two road starts, including one in Anaheim versus Jered Weaver.

Gio Gonzalez – Home has been good to Gonzalez this season as he has an 8-3 mark with a 2.70 ERA in Oakland. He got roughed up in his last start in Kansas City but prior to that had ripped off seven straight Quality Starts. With two home games this week, get Gonzalez in your lineup.

Philip Hughes – In his last five games, Hughes is 1-3 with a 6.85 ERA. Since the All-Star break Hughes is 5-6 with a 5.37 ERA. While the 16 Wins look nice, Hughes has not been a particularly good pitcher for over two months now. Hughes does get two home starts this week but they are against the Rays and Red Sox. The Yankees have scored a ton of runs for Hughes this season, an average of 6.79, so the possibility for a Win is certainly there. But the rest of the numbers could be very ugly. Unless you are desperate for Wins, give Hughes a seat on the bench.

Mike Pelfrey – Hughes and Pelfrey have been linked quite often this season as young pitchers with big win totals for the two New York clubs. While Hughes has benefitted from great run support, Pelfrey has received a big boost from his home park. In Citi Field this year he is 10-3 with a 2.87 ERA. But in road games Pelfrey is 5-6 with a 5.30 ERA. This week he has road games in Florida and Philadelphia so give him a spot on the bench.

Jake Westbrook – In nine games since joining the Cardinals Westbrook has just a 2-3 record. But he has hurled a Quality Start in eight of those nine games and in his last outing threw eight shutout innings. This week he squares off against Pittsburgh and Chicago, two teams that are a combined 60 games below .500 on the year. Owned in just over half of CBS Sports leagues, Westbrook is a potential waiver wire option in your league. Pick him up if he is available and start him if he is already on your roster.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 25 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen during the week.

Weaver, Carpenter, Hamels, Cain, Greinke, Garza, Billingsley, Cahill, Jurrjens, de la Rosa, Shields, Happ, Lewis, Richard, Matsuzaka, Carmona, L. Hernandez, Norris, Porcello, Bailey, Saunders, Holland, Nova, Volstad, Capuano, Bush, Maholm, J. Gomez, Chen, French, Mendez.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 23 pitchers and how they fared.

B. Anderson – Advised to start. 2 W, 1.84 ERA, 9 Ks, 1.023 WHIP (2 starts)
Gallardo – Advised to sit. W, 1.29 ERA, 10 Ks, 0.929 WHIP (2)
Jackson – Advised to start. 7.30 ERA, 9 Ks, 1.946 WHIP (2)
W. Rodriguez – Advised to start. 4.50 ERA, 16 Ks, 1.214 WHIP (2)
Vargas – Advised to sit. 4.77 ERA, 6 Ks, 1.500 WHIP (2)

Chris Sale, White Sox (Owned in 8% of Yahoo leagues)

Bobby Jenks‘ return from a right forearm injury has slowed, opening the door for Sale to snag saves in September. The 6-5, 170 pound beanpole with a low three-quarters delivery threw all of 10.1 innings in the minors after Chicago took him in the first round this past summer, but he’s impressing in the show with premium velocity from the left side.

Sale, slinging his fastball at an average of 96.2 MPH while mixing in low-80’s sliders and upper-80’s changeups, has struck out 23 batters in 17.2 IP. While he has issued 10 walks to go with all those K’s, the Florida Gulf Coast product has a 3.19 xFIP in a tiny sample. White Sox GM Kenny Williams has said that Sale will enter 2011 as a starter, but he’s certainly worth a roster spot closing out games for the South Siders in the meantime.

Madison Bumgarner, Giants (29%)

Bumgarner became a prospect darling on the basis of a mid-90’s fastball that singed batters in the low minors, but panic ensued last season when the 6-4 lefty’s velocity dropped into the upper-80’s. In 2010, Bumgarner has assuaged concerns that he was hurt or destined to fall well short of the expectations that helped him rank as a top-15 farm talent (according to Baseball America) over the past two years.

Still just 21, Bumgarner pitched decently at Triple-A Fresno (82.2 IP, 6.4 K/9, 2.4 BB/9 and a 4.31 park-and-luck-adjusted FIP, per Minor League Splits). Since being recalled to the majors in late June, he has whiffed 6.36 batters per nine innings, handed out 2.18 BB/9 and has a 4.22 xFIP. Bumgarner hasn’t blown hitters away, with an 84.1% contact rate that’s four percentage points above the big league average, but he is getting hitting his spots. He’s getting a first pitch strike 60% of the time (58.9% MLB average), and has placed 48.4% of his pitches over the plate (46.6% MLB average).

Though Bumgarner was once seen as an unrefined arm with heat and rudimentary secondary stuff, he has made use of all four of his pitches. He’s throwing his fastball about 57%, a mid-80’s slider 20%, a mid-70’s curve 12% and a low-80’s change 11%. Bumgarner’s not getting a ton of whiffs — his fastball has been whiffed at 6% of the time that it has been tossed (about average). His slider has an 8.6% whiff rate (13% MLB average) and his changeup comes in at 10.2% (12.1% MLB average). That leaves his curve (11.9 whiff%, 10.5% MLB average) as the only pitch with an above-average whiff rate.

However, he’s showing sharp control of all his offerings. Bumgarner has thrown his fastball for a strike 67% of the time (60-64% MLB average), 65.1% for his slider (62.7% MLB average), 61.9% for his curve (58% MLB average) and 67.5% for the change of pace (60.9% MLB average).

It’s also worth noting that Bumgarner’s fastball velocity has been on the rise. He sat 89.7 MPH in June, 90.5 MPH in July, 91.6 MPH in August and is averaging 92.8 MPH so far in September. Bumgarner is pretty good right now, but there’s more upside here if he starts flirting with those 2008 radar gun readings.

Down to the wire in your leagues. Don’t hesitate to drop players, especially pitchers – by the time someone picks them up they’ll get one start at most. Push, push, push, There’s still a little bit of time! Some short-term help below.

Julio Borbon, Rangers (25% owned)
Some of you might have Nyjer Morgan on your H2H team, and his eight-game suspension just went down. You might be going the distance. You might be going for speed. Your team is all alone, all alone in this time of need. Cue the speed racer, Julio Borbon. In September, he’s cut his strikeout rate back down to the 10% level it lived during his minor league career (10.7% career), and his BABIP is rising. Considering his speed, he could definitely own a BABIP higher than the .311 he has now, ZiPs RoS BABIP (.304) to be damned. In any case, September has Borbon starting (11 of the team’s 13 games), hitting (.333/.350/.410 so far), and stealing more bases than he has in a while (two), and that’s all you want from a short-term speed boost in H2H. Michael Brantley is also hot and stealing bases more prolifically, but we bigged him up at the end of August, so even though he’s owned in fewer Yahoo leagues (10%), it might be Borbon you find on your wire if your league is full of RotoGraphs readers.

Carlos Carrasco, Indians (5% owned)
You can still get the other CC for his start today against the Royals in some leagues, and that’s recommended. He’s not showing the best strikeout rate in the majors (6.10 K/9) or minors (7.93 K/9) this year, but he has supplemented that with an improving groundball rate in the majors (66.7%) and minors (46.1%). He’s also bettered his control this year in the majors (2.61 BB/9) and minors (2.66 BB/9), so he has his uses. Perhaps the mix isn’t mixed-league worthy every start – he’s much riskier for his next start against Minnesota, his second matchup against the Twins this year – but in deeper leagues, he makes a great spot start when he’s playing teams like the Royals. His minor league story is a little strange – he’s had strikeout rates north of nine per nine and south of six and a half per nine, and his groundball rates have oscillated from about 40% to 48% – but the overall package looks like it might play, if only on the back of his strong control. Streaming is inherently risky, but made more so with Carrasco.

There’s just a week or two left in the fantasy playoffs, so here’s a short update on two starting rotation spots involving a current phenom and a former on…

Kyle Drabek | Blue Jays | 2% owned

I’ll have more on Drabek tomorrow, but that doesn’t mean you should wait to grab the 22-year-old righthander out of the free agent pool. The Blue Jays have confirmed that they will call up their top prospect and give him his first big league start on Wednesday against the Orioles (in Baltimore). His next start after that comes at home against the oh-so-lowly Mariners. Gimme gimme gimme.

Jeff Francis | Rockies | 4%

Francis’ return from the disabled list comes at a good time for the Rockies, who just lost Aaron Cook for the rest of the season with a broken leg. Francis has never been a great fantasy option because of middling strikeout rates (6.15 K/9 career, 5.73 this year), his scary home park (although his career home FIP/ERA is better than on the road), and the fact that he’s just generally underwhelming. However, the Rockies are absolutely on fire and there’s definitely potential to steal some wins here (at the expense of ERA and WHIP). You might have just enough time to grab Francis for tonight’s start against the Padres, but if not, he still goes again the Dodgers later in the week.

Quick Notes: The Yankees expect Andy Pettitte back this coming Sunday against the Orioles, hopefully not too late for your team … Justin Masterson will finish the season in the bullpen.

Ownership rates are based on Yahoo! leagues.

Here is the last-minute look at the two-start pitchers for Week 24. First the starters who you may be on the fence about putting into your lineup:

R.A. Dickey – Those who have waited all year for Dickey to turn back into a pumpkin have been disappointed. After a bad start against the Cubs in Wrigley, Dickey rebounded to post his 16th Quality Start of the year in his last outing. He gets two home starts this week. Dickey is 6-1 with a 1.85 ERA in Citi Field this year. Make sure he is active.

Barry Enright – Normally a K rate under 5.00 and a LOB% of 86.9 percent is something to run away from screaming. But at this point of the year when fantasy owners are jockeying for a money spot, you have to ride the hot hand. Enright has two road starts this week and this year away from Chase Field he is 2-0 with a 2.17 ERA in five starts. A small sample for sure, but he also gets to face a struggling Bronson Arroyo and the Pirates. Get him in your lineup.

Jon Garland – All season long Garland has been a pretty good pitcher at home and only so-so on the road. But in his last three games, all in Petco, Garland is 0-3 with a 6.19 ERA. This week he has road starts in Colorado and in St. Louis against Adam Wainwright. This looks like a good week to put Garland on the bench.

Daniel Hudson – In eight games for the Diamondbacks, Hudson has turned in eight Quality Starts. The FB% is still higher than one might hope for, but Hudson does have 20.3 IFFB% in the National League. His strikeouts have been up and down with the Diamondbacks, but Hudson has given owners strong ERA, Wins and WHIP numbers. Ride the hot hand and have Hudson as a starter this week.

Chris Narveson – The overall numbers look ugly but Narveson is on a nice little hot streak recently. In his last seven games, he is 3-0 with a 3.38 ERA. Narveson has 35 Ks and 12 BB in his last 40 IP. After struggling with the gopher ball earlier in the year, Narveson has allowed just 3 HR in his last seven games and this week faces the Giants and Astros, with the latter team having hit the fewest HR in the National League this year. Get Narveson active this week.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 24 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen during the week.

Lester, Wainwright, Price, Liriano, Kershaw, Myers, J. Garcia, Danks, Arroyo, Matsuzaka, Zito, Lowe, Blanton, Duensing, Wood, Fister, Kazmir, Silva, McDonald, Duke, Maya, Francis, Luebke, Gee, Tomlin, Hochevar, A. Miller.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 22 pitchers and how they fared.

de la Rosa – Advised to sit. W, 2.08 ERA, 13 Ks, 1.231 WHIP (2 starts)
Duensing – Advised to start. W, 1.04 ERA, 2 Ks, 1.731 WHIP (2)
Happ – Advised to sit. 2 W, 1.13 ERA, 11 Ks, 0.688 WHIP (2)
Wolf – Advised to start. W, 3.68 ERA, 5 Ks, 1.886 WHIP (2)
Zambrano – Advised to start. 2 W, 1.46 ERA, 15 Ks, 1.135 WHIP (2)

Jed Lowrie, Red Sox (Owned in 2% of Yahoo leagues)

Dustin Pedroia‘s laser show is postponed until 2011, and Marco Scutaro’s playing through a partially torn rotator cuff in his right shoulder. Thus, Lowrie is getting the chance to re-insert himself into Boston’s plans after scarcely playing at all over the past two seasons.

A 2005 supplemental first-round pick out of Stanford, Lowrie displayed quality secondary skills for a middle infielder in the minors (.284/.380/.445 line in 1,600+ plate appearances). Baseball America ranked the switch-hitter as the #73 prospect in the game prior to 2008, and Lowrie reached Fenway that year. He held his own in the majors, batting .258/.339/.400 in 306 PA with a 95 wRC+. Lowrie punched out often (26.2 K%), but he controlled the zone by walking 11.4% of the time and swinging at pitches thrown off the plate just 17.6% (25.4% MLB average in ’08).

Unfortunately, Lowrie suffered a left wrist injury in 2009 and had to undergo surgery that wiped out three months of his season. He took only 76 trips to the plate in the majors last year, posting a 20 wRC+ with terrible luck on balls put in play. This season, Lowrie was sidelined until late July with Mononucleosis.

Since returning to action, however, Lowrie’s bat has been a plus for the Sox. He’s got a 122 wRC+ in 128 PA, hitting .255/.359/.445. The 26-year-old has a 14.1% walk rate, hacking at 21.9% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (29.2% MLB average this season). Lowrie’s no star, but he possesses patience and a dash of pop while capably playing up the middle of the diamond. CHONE thinks Jed is a .262/.347/.400 hitter ZiPS is less of a fan, though (.242/.324/.394). I like his chances of staying closer to that CHONE forecast.

Jhoulys Chacin, Rockies (22%)

For most of his minor league career, Chacin was a moderate-K, ground ball-centric pitcher who limited walks. In the show, though, the 22-year-old Venezuelan native has taken a power approach.

In 113.1 innings pitched this season, Chacin has whiffed 117 batters. His rate of 9.29 strikeouts per nine frames ranks 10th among pitchers tossing at least 100 innings. His 10.7% swinging strike rate also ranks 10th, and his 74% overall contact rate trails just Francisco Liriano. Chacin’s breaking stuff has been devastating. According to TexasLeaguers.com, he’s throwing his low-80’s slider for a strike 70.6% (63.4% MLB average) and getting a whiff 22.5% (13.6% MLB average). The righty’s high-70’s curveball is getting strikes 61% (58% MLB average) and whiffs 14% (11.6% MLB average).

All of those whiffs have come with walks. Throwing 41.3% of his pitches within the zone (46.7% MLB average), Chacin has issued 4.05 BB/9. Even so, he’s boasting an above-average ground ball rate (46.3 GB%) and a 3.69 xFIP. Pick him up if he’s still sitting on the sidelines in your league.

Here is the latest update to Week 22 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

MIN – Kevin Slowey
LAD – Vicente Padilla
CIN – Aaron Harang
STL – Kyle Lohse

Pitchers no longer scheduled for two starts

TEX – Cliff Lee
MIN – Francisco Liriano
SDP – Wade LeBlanc
FLA – Chris Volstad
BAL – Jake Arrieta
PIT – Jeff Karstens
CLV – Carlos Carrasco
LAD – Carlos Monasterios

In his last five games, Slowey has four Quality Starts and is 3-1 with a 2.56 ERA. He has a good chance to keep up his strong pitching with a home game against the Royals and a road game in Cleveland.

Padilla has been on the disabled list with a bulging disk in his neck and has also been slowed by a contusion in his left leg. But he is scheduled to return to the mound Monday against the Padres and Mat Latos. Padilla has a second road start on tap Saturday in Houston versus Wandy Rodriguez.

Harang made his first start of the second half last Tuesday after missing time due to a lower back strain. Harang threw 91 pitches in four innings in his first outing back and allowed eight hits. He starts in Colorado versus Ubaldo Jimenez before having a home start against the Pirates this week.

In three starts since returning from forearm surgery, Lohse is 1-2 with an 11.48 ERA. He has allowed 4 HR in 13.1 IP. Lohse’s first start this week is Tuesday in Milwaukee, which is the fifth easiest park to hit a homer in this season, according to the ESPN Park Factors. His second start also comes on the road, this time in Atlanta.