Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 6.

Edwin Jackson – It would be hard to find a pitcher whose peripherals from last year more closely matched what he’s done this year than Jackson. In 2010, Jackson had a 3.86 FIP and a 3.71 xFIP. This year the respective numbers are 3.83 and 3.71. Last year Jackson’s ERA was three-quarters of a run higher than his xFIP and this year it’s a half run higher than that. In 2011 he’s either been very good or really bad. And (coincidentally or not) he’s been really good at the Cell and, well you can guess how he’s been on the road. This week he has two road starts, so leave him out of your lineup if you can.

Mat Latos – Before last year’s drafts, I thought fantasy players were overvaluing Latos and he went out and posted a 3.78 K/BB ratio along with a 77.4 LOB%. This year, with his season delayed by a shoulder strain, Latos has not been the same pitcher. His K/BB is down to 2.50, still an impressive number but not what it was a year ago. His velocity has dropped 1.7 miles per hour from last year. Latos is also allowing more fly balls than a season ago and his HR rate is up, too. This week he has road starts against the Brewers and Rockies, typically two good HR parks, although Coors is not playing that way so far this year. If you can, err on the side of caution this week with Latos.

Ted Lilly – It’s been a ho-hum start of the year for Lilly but the good news is that he does not have to face the Cubs this week. Two of his last three starts have been against his former team and Chicago put up 10 ER in 10.1 IP versus Lilly in those two games. Against the rest of the league he has a 3.67 ERA. The Pirates have the next-to-worst OPS (.618) versus LH starters in the National League this year. Lilly’s other opponent this week is the Diamondbacks, who are middle of the pack versus LHP (.702) but who are last in the league in away runs scored. Part of that is because Arizona has played only 11 road games to date but part of it is that Chase Field helps their overall numbers. With Lilly on the road against the Pirates and home against the Diamondbacks, make sure he’s in your lineup.

Francisco Liriano – Not many pitchers can throw a no-hitter on a night where they allow six walks, but that’s what Liriano did in his last outing against the punch-less White Sox. It had been a disappointing season for Liriano prior to the no-hitter. Now the question becomes if he can use that as a springboard to get his season back on track. His strikeouts (5.51 K/9) are at a career-low while his walks (6.61) are at a career-high. This week he faces the Red Sox and Blue Jays. Boston leads the AL in walks (123) while Toronto is fourth (113). Give Liriano the week off if you can.

Brandon Morrow – An inured forearm sidelined Morrow at the beginning of the year but he has come back and made three starts in the majors. Last year, Morrow finished on a high note, as in his final 15 games he had a 3.53 ERA with 112 Ks in 89.1 IP. This year he has a 3.06 ERA with an 11.72 K/9, with Quality Starts on the road versus Tampa Bay and Texas. This week he goes up against Detroit and Minnesota. Tiger batters have the second-most strikeouts in the American League, while the Twins score the fewest runs per game (3.07) of any club in the loop. Make sure Morrow is active this week.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 6 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Lincecum, Price, Lester, Hanson, Cahill, Carpenter, Billingsley, Wilson, Scherzer, Pineda, Chacin, Zambrano, Greinke, Tomlin, E. Santana, Correia, Marquis, Arrieta, Wood, F. Garcia, Vazquez, Hammel, Capuano, Blanton, Karstens, Davies, A. Rodriguez, Collmenter.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 4 pitchers and how they fared.

Burnett – Advised to start. W, 6 Ks, 3.21 ERA, 1.000 WHIP, 14 IP, 5 ER
Drabek – Advised to sit. W, 6 Ks, 8.64 ERA, 2.160 WHIP, 8.1 IP, 8 ER
Harrison – Advised to start. 2 Ks, 21.24 ERA, 4.071 WHIP, 4.2 IP, 11 ER
D. Hudson – Advised to start. 2 W, 11 Ks, 4.15 ERA, 1.462 WHIP, 13 IP, 6 ER
Masterson – Advised to sit. W, 14 Ks, 3.29 ERA, 1.171 WHIP, 13.2 IP, 5 ER

Freddy Garcia did not even make our initial AL starting pitcher rankings. After a strong start to the season, at least on the surface, in a month’s worth of work, the question is whether this old geezer has anything left to offer fantasy owners.

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In today’s look at a few NL starting pitchers, I touch on two former top prospects, and a pitcher many people have not heard of.

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Clay Buchholz entered draft season as an obvious bust candidate to statistically-minded fantasy owners after finishing 2010 with the largest ERA-xFIP differential amongst qualified starters. However, Buchholz was at one point a top pitching prospect, like top three in all of baseball, and any scout would tell you that his stuff was good enough to make him one of the best young pitchers in the game. So the question was whether Buchholz’s ERA in 2011 would rise to the 4.00 level his xFIP suggested or if he would continue to improve his underlying skills while battling the luck regression gods, and see his ERA jump to just the low-to-mid 3.00 range. Well so far the bust side has been right, as he has posted a disappointing 4.81 ERA after six starts. Is it time to send his owner some offers? Nope.

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The calendar just flipped to May, so even the most patient fantasy owners among us must start re-evaluating roster spots. Here’s two young players that could help…

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A couple of weeks ago, I looked at the SwStk% metric and its relationship to K/9. In that article, I looked at pitchers in 2010, comparing their SwStk% and K/9 rates to determine who may be in line for a bump in strikeout rate in 2011 and who might be set for a decline. With a month now in the books, let us check in on some of the leaders in SwStk% who currently have a lower K/9 than might be expected.

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Here is the latest update to Week 5 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update: Weaver, Hamels, de la Rosa, Buchholz, E. Jackson, Dempster.

Pitchers no longer scheduled for two starts: Beckett, Oswalt, Tomlin, Rogers, Chatwood.

Of the new pitchers, let’s look at Jorge de la Rosa. After a strong finish to the 2009 season, where he was 15-3 over his final 22 games with a 3.93 ERA, many were predicting that de la Rosa was ready to become one of the top pitchers in the game. But a slow start in 2010, followed by a hand injury turned his 2010 campaign into a lost season.

Many fantasy players slept on de la Rosa, who had an ADP in the 160s prior to this season. For those fantasy players that kept the faith, de la Rosa has rewarded them with a fine start to the 2011 season, with a 4-0 record and a 2.61 ERA in April.

One of the big steps forward for de la Rosa this season is with his walk rate. With a career mark near 4.5 BB/9, de la Rosa has a sparkling 2.90 rate so far this season. And his improved command has not come with any dropoff in strikeouts, as his 8.42 essentially matches what he did in 2010 and is above his 8.00 lifetime mark.

In his last outing, de la Rosa had his best game of the year, as he allowed just 1 ER in 7 IP, with 0 BB and 9 Ks. He’s been lucky with his HR rate, but his 2.90 K/9 shows how well he has pitched.

He has two road starts this week, including one in Chase Field against the Diamondbacks, where he is 0-3 lifetime, but it is hard to imagine sitting him with how well he has been pitching so far in 2011.

Last week’s Sunday look was Jesse Litsch. The take away was to keep him on the bench this week because of his matchups but to monitor his peripherals to see if he was getting grounders and strikeouts. Here was his combined line for his starts against the Rangers and Yankees:

12 IP, 8 ER, 4 BB, 6 Ks, 20 GB, 16 FB

While the rest of the world is going gaga over the resurgence of Bartolo Colon (I’m not buying it), there’s another pitcher out there who has apparently hopped into his Delorean and gunned it to 88.  San Francisco’s Ryan Vogelsong made his first start of the season in replacement of the injured Barry Zito this past week, pitched 5.2 innings allowing two runs on four hits and a pair of walks, and picked up his first win as a starter since 2002.  He actually looked better than his stat line reads as opening jitters got the better of him in the first, but he settled down very nicely and matched a career high eight strikeouts.  But now the question remains — is he worth a spot on your fantasy roster? Read the rest of this entry »

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 5.

R.A. Dickey – Last year’s feel-good story is off to a rough start this year, with a 1-3 record and an ERA nearly a full run higher than 2010. Walks have been a big problem for Dickey, as his 4.09 BB/9 is way above last year’s 2.17 mark. But after giving up 12 BB in his first 17.1 IP, Dickey has allowed just 3 BB in his last 15.2 innings. With home games against the Giants and Dodgers, look for Dickey to get back to last year’s results, where he was 7-3 with a 1.99 ERA at Citi Field, and get him into your lineup.

Livan Hernandez – Last year, Hernandez got off to a hot start, which prompted Dave Cameron to call him: The Luckiest Man Alive. Regression hit in his final 21 starts (5-9, 4.48 ERA) and his overall numbers were what we would expect, save for a 5.8 HR/FB rate. Flash forward to this year and his 2011 numbers are similar to what he produced overall in 2010. His xFIP is nearly identical to what it was a year ago, but his ERA is 1.31 runs lower than his xFIP due mainly to a low HR rate. Here are the HR/FB rates for Hernandez the past five seasons, starting with 2007: 11.8, 10.7, 8.4, 5.8, 3.4.

Regression will hit Hernandez again this year, but the problem with regression is while we know it’s coming, we’re just not sure when. We do know that Hernandez faces two teams in the Phillies and Marlins this week that are below average in the National League in hitting homers. While Hernandez has had some trouble on the road this year, my feeling is that the good luck with HR will continue another week and I am going to have him in my lineup.

Jair Jurrjens – Since being activated from the disabled list, Jurrjens has been masterful in three starts, going 2-0 with a 1.23 ERA. While that is accompanied by all of the unsustainable marks you would expect, like a 92.6 LOB%, one thing Jurrjens has impressed with and might be able to continue with going forward is his K/BB ratio. It currently sits at 2.80, thanks to a 2.05 BB/9. He goes up against the Brewers and Phillies, two teams that are below average in the NL drawing walks. Both teams are above average in scoring runs, so it certainly will not be an easy week for Jurrjens, but I like his chances.

Mike Leake – In a bit of unusual circumstance, Leake is 3-0 yet his xFIP (3.58) is lower than his ERA (4.40). In his second season in the majors, Leake has upped his K rate, going from a 5.92 K/9 a season ago to 7.63 this season. In his last three starts, Leake has 18 Ks in 20 IP. He’s pitched a Quality Start in four of his five games this year, stumbling only in a road game in Arizona. This week Leake squares off against the Astros and Cubs, two teams with a combined 19-30 record. Get the youngster into your lineup this week.

Josh Tomlin – A perfect five-for-five in Quality Starts, the previously unheralded Tomlin has been embraced by fantasy players, with ownership rates in CBS Sports leagues higher than Dickey, Hernandez and Leake. The righty Tomlin has an average fastball velocity of just 87.6, but throws four other pitches, does a nice job mixing them and has positive Pitch Type Values on all of his non-fastball offerings.

But while it has been fun to watch Tomlin come out of nowhere, he does have a .179 BABIP and a 91.7 LOB%. With two West Coast road starts this week against the A’s and Angels, this may be the time that regression shows up. Look for alternatives to Tomlin this week.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 5 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Sabathia, Lester, Verlander, Haren, Beckett, Kershaw, Oswalt, Hanson, Gallardo, Lohse, Harang, Ogando, A. Sanchez, McClellan, Davis, Holland, Bumgarner, Guthrie, McCarthy, Colon, Buehrle, Rogers, Francis, Happ, Bedard, Penny, McDonald, Volstad, Chatwood, Gorzelanny, Ross, Saunders, Vogelsong, Bergesen, Reyes.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 3 pitchers and how they fared.

Beachy- Advised to sit. W, 14 Ks, 1.50 ERA, 0.583 WHIP, 12 IP, 2 ER
Matsuzaka – Advised to sit. 2 W, 12 Ks, 0.00 ERA, 0.400 WHIP, 15 IP, 0 ER
Pavano – Advised to start. W, 6 Ks, 7.71 ERA, 1.629 WHIP, 11.2 IP, 10 ER
Vargas – Advised to start. 7 Ks, 6.55 ERA, 1.546 WHIP, 11 IP, 8 ER
Zambrano – Advised to start. 14 Ks, 4.15 ERA, 0.923 WHIP, 13 IP. 6 ER

After nearly a month in the books, it is time to update the AL starting pitcher rankings. As a fantasy baseball projectionist and owner, I am not much of a tinkerer and it takes a lot to change my opinion after only a month of play. At this point, I completely ignore a pitcher’s ERA and instead focus solely on the underlying skill set and metrics; it is process over results for me. So keep this in mind when perusing through the risers and fallers and remember that the original rankings were a compilation of eight RotoGraphers’ individual rankings. Although I would love to adjust all the rankings to reflect my own personal opinion, I will not give in to temptation and simply move players up and down based on potential new information we have learned so far.

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