Today’s look at NL Starting Pitchers is nutrient dense.

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After picking six for over 20 days straight, I’ve won one day. One stinking Bobby Valentine. Perhaps I’m not the best person to turn to for strategy in this particular game. I’ll offer it up anyway.

Mimicking my general fantasy strategy, I’ve been pushing money away from pitching. There are so many good matchups every day, why not find a good, cheap pitcher against a terrible offense? Last night, I chose a $17.75 Shaun Marcum (at home against New York), but that’s about the most expensive I’ll go for a starter. I was severely tempted by a $10.75 Daniel Hudson in Pittsburgh, and even Jonathan Sanchez at home against the Nationals made sense at $6.25 (or his opponent, the $3.50 Jordan Zimmermann). Don’t spend on starting.

If you are not going to spend on starting, there’s really no reason to spend on relieving. If a starter is no guarantee to perform on any given night, at least he’s guaranteed to show up and, you know, play. The ottoneu Dark Lord Niv Shah was kind enough to give me the points per position in the Pick Six game so far. Clearly, relievers are the red-headed step-children of the game.

After all that blabbing about not paying for pitching, it might be surprising to see that starting pitchers have the best number in this table. But the point wasn’t that pitchers are not worth spending money on, the point was that there were plenty of bargains. Niv is nothing if not eminently bug-able – he graciously gave me the points per dollar spent for each position.

Ah-hah. So, even just by groping my way through the dark with intuition instead of the numbers in front of me, it looks like I stumbled onto a viable strategy. Spend where you get the most return for your dollar: non-catcher offense.

Oh, and while you are at it, join a group! Now Pick Six has groups so that you attract like-minded players easily. Oh, and with groups you might be able to put a little friendly gummy-bear wager on the thing. If you like gummy bears or whatever. I’m in #PraiseBeltran and I started RotoGraphRegulars. Pimp your group here if you want others to join in!

This is an exciting time of the year for deep league owners as prospects are being called up, slow starters are getting released and playing time opportunities are opening up. No longer do deep leaguers have to choose between fifth outfielders and sixth starters currently pitching in long relief.

Felipe Paulino, KC SP | 6% Owned

If you had read my stuff last year on FantasyPros911 or listened to my weekly radio show, you would be well aware that I loved Paulino last year. He was coming off a decent 4.04 xFIP, but that compared to a ghastly 6.27 ERA, which likely scared off most fantasy owners and made him very cheap at draft time. He posted an excellent strike out rate, backed up by a fastball that averaged 95.4 miles per hour and generated an impressive 11.6% SwStk%. Unfortunately, 2010 did not go so well as his control regressed, the poor luck of 2009 continued through the season, and he dealt with shoulder issues that landed him on the DL. Now he has moved on to the Royals and has a second chance at a starting gig after opening the season in relief with the Rockies. His velocity remains in the 95.0 mile per hour range and he has produced fantastic results with his slider once again. This is the type of arm worth taking a chance on in AL-Only leagues. At the very least he should provide some nice strikeout numbers.

Jeff Keppinger, HOU 2B | 7% Owned

The release of Bill Hall has opened the door for Keppinger to receive full-time at-bats . While never producing much power or showing much speed, he is one of the best contact hitters in baseball. In his career, he has walked more than he has struck out, and only a below league average BABIP of .289 has prevented him from being a perennial .300 hitter. Obviously, he does not have great upside or anything, but his skills remind me of a mini-Placido Polanco. A couple of homers and steals here and there, but the value comes with the playing time and the batting average. Though this does not play very well in mixed leagues, he is a good choice to fill a hole that should cost little in deeper leagues. Finding a player in deeper leaguers that won’t kill your average is difficult, especially in the current environment where BABIP and batting average are down for the league. Luckily, Keppinger is here to save the day.

Here is the latest update to Week 10 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update: F. Hernandez, Pineda, Garza, Liriano, Volquez, Chatwood and R. de la Rosa.

Pitchers no longer scheduled for two starts: Pineiro, Garland, Swarzak, O’Sullivan, Lopez and Reineke.

Let’s take a look at Tyler Chatwood. A second-round pick of the Angels in the 2008 Draft, Chatwood played at three different levels in 2010 and he posted a combined 2.84 ERA in 155.1 innings pitched. Chatwood started 2011 in Triple-A but was called up after just one appearance with Salt Lake.

The 21-year old held his own in his first five starts in the majors, winning two of his three decisions albeit with a 4.90 ERA. But in his last six games, Chatwood has turned it up, as he’s posted a 2.68 ERA over his last 37 IP. While he allowed 17 BB in that span, he’s done a good job of keeping the ball in the park, as he’s allowed just 1 HR over his last six starts.

Chatwood’s main issue is that he’s not striking many batters out. With a 4.06 K/9, Chatwood ranks 114th out of 117 qualified pitchers. With an average fastball velocity of 93.1, one would expect Chatwood to strike out more batters but he does not have a pitch to put batters away. His SwStr% is just 4.3 percent and neither his curve ball nor change is a strikeout pitch. In the minors his curve was thought to be a potential weapon but in the majors so far it has been a below-average pitch.

It’s theoretically possible to thrive with a strikeout rate that low, but you’ve got to really cut down on walks and Chatwood has a 4.76 BB/9. He has a below-average BABIP and an elevated LOB%, which explains his 4.72 FIP and 5.00 xFIP compared to his 3.64 ERA.

While his immediate fantasy prospects are not overwhelming, Chatwood is still an intriguing arm. He gets ground balls (44%), throws hard enough and keeps the ball in the park – a nice package from a pitcher this young.

Last week we looked at Jordan Lyles. The rookie had a strong debut as he allowed just two runs in seven innings against the Cubs. But Sunday he was knocked around by the Padres, as he allowed 4 ER in 4 IP and took the loss.

It has been nearly a month since I first took a look at the differential between starting pitchers’ ERA and xFIP. With two months now in the books, it is time for an update. From message board posts and various articles, it seems that many fantasy owners wait until June to really analyze their team and look for trading opportunities. Determining which pitchers have been the luckiest and which have been the most unfortunate is a good exercise to undertake to identity potential trade targets or sell high candidates.

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Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 10.

Kyle Drabek – In his first three starts, Drabek allowed just 4 ER in 18.2 IP for a 1.93 ERA. Since then, he’s allowed 29 ER in 44.2 IP for a 5.84 ERA. In that span, he’s allowed more walks (34) than strikeouts (26) and sports an ugly 1.858 WHIP. Walks are just killing him, as Drabek has a 6.39 BB/9, the worst mark among 115 qualified pitchers and over a full walk worse than the next worst pitcher (Jonathan Sanchez 5.19). Give him a spot on the bench until he gets his walk rate under control.

Ubaldo Jimenez – Three weeks ago, I had Jimenez as a sit and told you to wait until he showed something more. In his last outing he had a four-hit shutout with no walks and seven strikeouts – I think that counts. In his last four starts, covering 30 IP, he’s allowed just eight walks. In the four previous starts, he allowed 19 BB in 18.2 IP. Jimenez faces the Padres and Dodgers this week, the bottom two teams in the National League in runs per game. If you were holding him out, now is definitely the time to get him back in your lineup.

Felipe Paulino – Liberated from the Rockies bullpen, Paulino is back to starting with the Royals. In two starts with Kansas City, he’s pitched 9.1 scoreless innings with 0 BB and 7 Ks. Paulino is a strikeout pitcher who gets lots of groundballs. But the few fly balls he allowed seemingly all left the park in Colorado. He had a 7.36 ERA with the Rockies but a 3.41 xFIP. Available on the waiver wire in most leagues, Paulino is an excellent streaming option this week with his two starts and potentially much more than that.

Joel Pineiro – The switch to more two-seamers back in 2009 turned Pineiro into a pitcher who gets lots of ground balls but few strikeouts. So, he’s really a three-category pitcher at best. But when he’s right, he should deliver numbers in all three remaining categories. Pineiro has scuffled recently but he does have two home starts this week, including one against the Rays, who struggle versus lefties. Against LH starters this year, Tampa has a .652 OPS, the third-worst mark in the American League. Owners have not embraced Pineiro since he came off the DL but this looks like a week where he could contribute.

Josh Tomlin – He is tied for the American League lead with 7 wins and is fifth with a 0.949 WHIP, meaning Tomlin has made owners who picked him up off the waiver wire very happy. But in his past two starts, Tomlin has allowed 10 ER in 12 IP and allowed 3 HR. This week he squares off against the Yankees who lead the AL in both runs per game (5.24) and HR (83 in 54 games) by a wide margin. Tomlin’s start is in the Bronx, where the Yankees have hit 47 HR in 30 games. His other start is against the Twins, who have had trouble scoring runs overall this year but have tallied five or more runs in five of their past seven games. Give Tomlin the week off.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 10 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Lincecum, Lee, Price, Hanson, Lester, Marcum, Greinke, Oswalt, Scherzer, Gonzalez, J. Sanchez, D. Hudson, C. Lewis, Morrow, Zimmermann, Lilly, Correia, Stauffer, Baker, Matusz, Myers, Porcello, Danks, Harrison, Garcia, Westbrook, Richard, Vazquez, Capuano, Leake, Garland, Lannan, Mortensen, Moscoso, Swarzak, Davis, O’Sullivan, Lopez, Reineke.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 8 pitchers and how they fared.

Arroyo – Advised to sit. 2 Ks, 22.24 ERA, 3.706 WHIP, 5.2 IP, 14 ER
Chacin – Advised to start. 11 Ks, 6.23 ERA, 1.154 WHIP, 13 IP, 9 ER
de la Rosa – Advised to start. 3 Ks, 7.71 ERA, 2.143 WHIP, 2.1 IP, 2 ER
Hellickson – Advised to start. W, 10 Ks, 1.35 ERA, 0.975 WHIP, 13 IP, 2 ER
Niese – Advised to start. W, 11 Ks, 1.59 ERA, 1.500 WHIP, 11.3 IP, 2 ER

Jon Lester has been one of the most consistently excellent starting pitchers over the past three seasons, posting ERAs in a narrow range between 3.21 and 3.41. In April of this season, he opened the first month in typical fashion, posting a 2.52 ERA. However, May has been a completely different story as his ERA has shot up to 3.94 after an uncharacteristic 5.50 ERA during the month. Though he made two starts in which he only allowed a run in one and shut out his opponent in the other, he has allowed four runs, five runs twice, and seven runs in his other May starts. Do fantasy owners have any reason to worry?

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In today’s version of NL Starting Pitchers, I tell you about a pitcher I like, a pitcher I don’t, and a pitcher I’m skeptical of.

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It is time for some more deep league fun. While injuries in mixed leagues do not usually lead to new sources of significant value, it is actually a huge supplier of value in Only leagues. Which is why sometimes I wish I was playing in an Only league this year so I could have an excuse to analyze such players as in the post title. But then I remember how much more your team gets killed when your guy is the one who goes down and I don’t miss playing in Only leagues any more. For those poor souls dealing with a smattering of strained obliques, quads and hamstrings, I have one option for ya. And the others in need of pitching help, I am here for you as well.

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Here is the latest update to Week 9 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update: A. Sanchez, Hammel, Duensing, Guthrie, Lyles, Cobb

Pitchers no longer scheduled for two starts: Happ, Sonnanstine.

Let’s take a look at Jordan Lyles, the top pitching prospect for the Houston Astros, who will make his major league debut this week.

The Astros selected Lyles as a supplemental first-round pick in 2008, awarded for the loss to free agency for pitcher Trever Miller. Lyles has risen quickly through the organization. Last year he skipped Hi-A, as the Astros thought he could handle the jump, plus they were not eager to have him pitch in the hitter-friendly environment of Lancaster.

He excelled in Double-A, where he had an 8.15 K/9 as a 19-year old. Lyles had a late promotion to Triple-A, where he got knocked around in six starts. He began this season back in Triple-A, although this time in a different city, as Houston’s top minor league franchise is now Oklahoma City, rather than Round Rock.

In 10 starts this year in Triple-A, Lyles is 3-3 with a 3.20 ERA. After posting a 1.86 WHIP in his first exposure to Triple-A, Lyles has a 1.24 mark so far this season. In his last three starts for the RedHawks, Lyles was 2-1 with a 1.31 ERA. In 20.2 IP, he allowed 0 HR and just 2 BB and fanned 10 batters.

Lyles is not overpowering but he has a deep repertoire and he throws strikes. It’s always impressive when a pitcher makes it to the majors at age 20. But you have to wonder if he is mentally ready to take on major league hitters and if Lyles will trust his stuff enough to thrive.

The matchups are not overly favorable for Lyles, either. He has two road starts and has to go up against Carlos Zambrano and Mat Latos. The tendency among fantasy players is to gobble up rookies when they get called to the majors, hoping to catch lightning in a bottle. Without dominating stuff, Lyles seems unlikely to be a fantasy stud in his first exposure to MLB.

Last week we looked at Carlos Villanueva. In his two starts, Villanueva picked up a win with a strong outing against the Yankees, where he allowed just two hits and one earned run in five innings. But his second start was a disaster, as he gave up 5 ER in 5 IP and was fortunate to come away with a no-decision.