Here is the latest update to Week 22 two-start pitchers. There’s more changes than normal because of all of the rescheduling necessitated by Hurricane Irene. And there will undoubtedly be even more changes as the week progresses.

Pitchers not listed on last update: Halladay, Jurrjens, Vogelsong, Nolasco, A. Sanchez, Gee, McCarthy, F. Garcia, Simon
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Pitchers no longer scheduled for two starts: Sabathia, J. Garcia, Worley, Tomlin, Harrison, Fister, Harden, Lowe, Vazquez, Pelfrey, Guthrie, Volstad.

Let’s take a look at Anibal Sanchez. From the second week in May until the end of June, Sanchez was a fantasy star, as he went 5-0 with a 2.17 ERA, a 0.920 WHIP and 75 Ks in 70.2 IP. He put up this impressive line with a .280 BABIP, so it seemed likely that he would continue to put up good numbers, even after this lights-out streak was over.

But in his last 10 starts, Sanchez is 1-5 with a 6.33 ERA. The strikeout numbers are still good, as he has 56 Ks in 54 IP. But the BABIP is ugly at .369 and he’s surrendered 11 HR in 54 IP. Sanchez has allowed 62 fly balls in those 10 starts and has a 17.74 HR/FB ratio. Lifetime, he has an 8.1 HR/FB mark, so clearly something is out of whack.

Sanchez is really struggling with his slider, typically his best pitch. In 2010, Sanchez had a 12.0 wSL, easily his most effective offering. This year it sits at a 3.8 wSL, still a good mark but very deceiving. Here’s how it breaks down by month:

April: 2.2
May: 5.1
June: 2.4
July: -4.4
August: -1.5

After being on the first page of the leaderboard with results from his slider in each of the first three months of the season, Sanchez had the second-worst results of any qualified starter in July and is again below average with his slider so far in August.

Velocity has not been an issue for Sanchez, as he hit 94.6 in his last start and averaged 91.5 – right at his seasonal average. There’s been no talk about any injury but that’s always a possibility for someone who relies heavily on the slider.

For whatever reason, the results have not been there for Sanchez for two months now. He still has some value because of his strikeouts, but Sanchez is no longer a must-start fantasy pitcher. This week in his two starts, he has a matchup with the Phillies, who are third in the NL in HR since the All-Star break, not something that a pitcher who has allowed 11 HR in his last 54 IP should relish.

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 22.

Mark Buehrle – In his last 19 starts, Buehrle has gone 9-3 with a 2.62 ERA. Overall, his ERA is about 0.75 less than his FIP and nearly a full run worse than his xFIP. But Buehrle has out-performed both FIP numbers in seven of the previous nine seasons, so it’s not a huge surprise. The estimators have a tough time with Buehrle because his strikeout rate is so low. But he counters with an excellent walk rate and better than average HR and LOB rates. He has a home start against MIN and he has a 0.39 ERA in three starts against the Twins this year. He’s also got a game at DET and lifetime he has a 3.37 ERA and a 1.179 WHIP in 123 IP at Comerica Park. Keep Buehrle in the lineup this week.

Brett Cecil – The one weakness for Cecil is his gopher ball tendencies. He’s allowed 14 HR in 91.1 IP this year and all 14 HR have come against RHB. This week Cecil squares off against BAL and NYY, with both starts on the road. The Yankees lead the AL with 98 HR at home and the Orioles are tied for third with 82 HR. The Yankees have power up and down the lineup while the Orioles feature three RHB – Hardy, Jones and Reynolds – with over 20 HR apiece. Give Cecil the week off.

Wade Davis – The year started off miserably for Davis as he adopted more of a pitch-to-contact approach which resulted in an inflated ERA. After 18 starts he had a 4.47 ERA and a 4.13 K/9. But in his last five starts, Davis has fanned 28 in 36 IP for a 7.00 K/9 and he has a 3.75 ERA. The Rays are 5-0 in that stretch, although Davis has just one win to show for it. If he can keep up the solid pitching, the wins will come so make sure you have him active this week.

Doug Fister – Last year Fister was a low-end matchup guy, one you could put into the lineup when he had home starts. He had a strong 3.61 ERA and 1.139 WHIP at Safeco but a 5.06 ERA and a 1.551 WHIP in road games. This year he’s been good both at home and on the road. There was concern about how he would do after the trade to Detroit, but in four starts with the Tigers, Fister has produced two strong outings, both at home. This week he has two home starts, with games against the Royals and White Sox, two teams below .500 and who are just middle of the pack versus LH starters. Get Fister active this week.

Hiroki Kuroda – Since coming to this country in 2008, Kuroda has been a very reliable pitcher for both the Dodgers and fantasy owners. Despite strong overall numbers, he’s never been a big asset in Wins and this year was even worse than normal as he had a 6-13 record at the end of July despite a 3.11 ERA. But fortune has smiled upon Kuroda in August, as he has a 4-1 record this month. He has a normal .305 BABIP in August yet has a 2.16 ERA in 33.1 IP. This week he has a home start against SD and a road start in ATL. He has more wins against the Padres (7) than any team in the majors. His start against the Braves is a day game and Kuroda has a 2.58 ERA and a 1.148 WHIP with a 4.0 K/BB rate in day games this season. Make sure he is in the lineup this week.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 22 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Lincecum, Sabathia, Kershaw, Romero, Marcum, Hellickson, D.Hudson, Scherezer, J. Garcia, Worley, Latos, W. Rodriguez, Hamels, Tomlin, Harrison, Cahill, Lackey, Harden, Lowe, Morton, Vazquez, Bailey, Arroyo, Hochevar, Pelfrey, Guthrie, White, L. Hernandez, Beavan, Wells, Pineiro, Francis, Slowey, Huff, Williams, Ohlendorf, Volstad.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 20 pitchers and how they fared.

Billingsley – Advised to sit. 12 Ks, 3.07 ERA, 0.955 WHIP, 14.2 IP, 5 ER
Burnett – Advised to start. W, 3 Ks, 12.27 ERA, 2.591 WHIP, 7.1 IP, 10 ER
Gonzalez – Advised to start. W, 13 Ks, 3.21 ERA, 0.857 WHIP, 14 IP, 5 ER
Leake – Advised to start. 10 Ks, 6.75 ERA, 1.167 WHIP, 12 IP, 9 ER
Luebke – Advised to start. W, 13 Ks, 1.50 ERA, 0.750 WHIP, 12 IP, 2 ER

Who doesn’t like playing games? The most common baseball article game I have seen is the Player A and Player B game. And guess what…that is exactly what I am going to play today, with the addition of Player C, who will also be joining the party. So put on your thinking caps, this one is going to be an exciting one, and it stars three American League starters named A, B and C!

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Ted Lilly

2011 has been unkind to Lilly owners. His last 12 starts in 2010 portended good things going forward — he struck out a batter per inning and posted a WHIP under 1.00 during his time with the Dodgers. 2011 has seen Lilly struggle to put together quality starts consistently, a trait far more maddening than simply being terrible.

He’s still struggling to go deep into ballgames, which exacerbates any base runners and runs he allows, but his last five outings have been consistently survivable, something that couldn’t be said of any other five start stretch of the season. His WHIP this month is the fourth best in the NL at 0.86 and he boasts a top-10 ERA to match. He is winless on the month, having gotten 0,1, and 0 runs of support in his three losses and a no decision in his worst start. If he continues to pitch well, the wins should follow.

It’s tempting to latch onto that WHIP and ERA, and project great things going forward, but Lilly still worries me. His BABIP is has dropped nearly 100 points from where it was in the first half, down to just .204, and he’s been even luckier in August. His BABIP this month is a completely untenable .169 with a 92 percent strand rate to match, which helps explain the sudden stinginess in allowing base runners. His walks are up in the second half, and while he is mitigating that with a higher strikeout rate, those walks will become more costly if the base hits start falling in.

With Cole Hamels joining Tommy Hanson on the disabled list and the potential for contenders to start skipping starts before too long, there’s an added temptation to look at Lilly’s numbers and see effectiveness that just isn’t likely to stick around. While he may cheat regression for another start or two, September isn’t likely to be nearly as favorable to him as August has been.

Brad Peacock

Every start Stephen Strasburg makes is big news as he nears the majors again, and it’s not hard to understand why. Strasburg is in a sweet spot between a large amount of unfulfilled potential and having proven that his stuff will play at the major league level, which generates a lot of coverage. Much further down the minor league chain, Bryce Harper has the new kid shine still on him, plus has a strong personality and gets plenty of coverage because of it.

Between the Nats’ high profile minor leaguers, we have Peacock. Not as heralded as the other two, due in no small part to the fact that he was taken in the 41st round of the 2006 draft. Nevertheless, he has been absolutely fantastic in the minors, posting a K/9 of 11 and a WHIP of 0.97 between Double- and Triple-A this season.

According to MLB.com’s Bill Ladson, the Nationals are going to call up Peacock when rosters expand on September 1, which makes him an interesting option for those needing to replace an injured starter. It would be nice to know exactly how he’ll fit into the rotation before picking him up, but the Nats aren’t making that clear just yet. While he hasn’t racked up the double-digit strikeout games the way he did in Double-A, Peacock still frequently sets hitters down by the bunch in Triple-A, and is likely to continue to do so even after he gets promoted again. It will be his third level of the year, so temper expectations accordingly, but given the choice between Peacock and some of the guys getting rostered out of pure necessity right now, I’d rather take my chances than be guaranteed below-average performance.

Individual league trading deadline have either already passed or are quickly approaching. That means that the only way to try improving your team for the last month is dipping into the dangerous and murky free agent pool. Maybe these two players can help you.

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Mike Leake is such a difficult player to evaluate. Due to the fact that he completely skipped the minor leagues during his debut season — and has only thrown 7 1/3 innings in the minors over his career — his career path can only be categorized as unique. While his performance in the majors are nothing short of amazing when you consider the circumstances, Leake is still learning on the job. He’s provided value to fantasy owners this season — and he’s still incredibly young for a player with his experience — but have his performances been strong enough to make him a keeper?
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On Saturday, I took a look at the biggest underperforming pitchers based on ERA and SIERA differential. Today I look at the opposite, those pitchers who have most outperformed their SIERA and are ripe for a correction. These guys make perfect last minute sell high candidates in your league this year, especially if you are out of it and still have the chance to make dump trades for keepers. Otherwise, this may be your early list of overvalued pitchers in 2012 drafts.

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Usually we have two columns on two-start pitchers but circumstances beyond my control made the Friday column impossible. So, this week there will be just the Sunday one. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 21.

Fausto Carmona – The overall numbers for Carmona are pretty uninspiring (6-12, 4.89) but in his last seven games he has pitched much better. Carmona’s ERA has dropped a full run in that span, as he has a 2.51 ERA over his last 43 IP. Carmona has had very good control this year and recently he’s kept his HR in check, too. He allowed 15 HR in 104.1 IP before the All-Star break and 4 in 41.0 IP here in the second half. This week he goes up against SEA and KC, two teams that are below average in hitting homers. Get Carmona into you lineup this week.

Bartolo Colon – After he was roughed up by the Blue Jays in his first start in the second half, many began to wonder if the clock had struck midnight on Colon’s surprising comeback season. But Colon bounced back with a 3.71 ERA over his last six starts, with 10 BB and 28 Ks in 34 IP. He’s got a fairly normal .314 BABIP in this span, too. He faces BAL and OAK this week, two teams that are a combined 31 games under .500 this season. He should be active this week.

Ryan Dempster – In his last four games, Dempster is 3-0 with a 2.77 ERA. But unlike Colon, he’s done that with a .242 BABIP. Batters have hit 27 fly balls in this span and have 2 HR. Prior to this stretch, Dempster allowed 14 HR on 124 fly balls. Dempster has a home game against the Braves, who have won 12 of their last 16 games, and then a road start in Milwaukee, where the Brewers are second in the NL with 78 HR at home and have a 47-16 mark at Miller Field. Give Dempster a spot on the bench this week.

Ricky Nolasco – It’s hard to imagine worse possible matchups for a starting pitcher in the NL, as Nolasco squares off against ERA leader Johnny Cueto in his first start and gets Wins leader Roy Halladay in his second outing. And in his last start, Nolasco allowed 11 H and 11 ER in 3 IP. For the clincher, Nolasco is not piling up strikeouts like he has in the past, as he has a pedestrian 20 Ks in his last 31.2 IP. Put him on your bench this week.

Bud Norris – In the first half of the season, Norris surrendered 11 HR in 112 IP. In the second half he’s given up 8 HR in 40 IP. Additionally, his K/9 has dropped from 9.1 to 7.2 in the same span. Norris has a start in COL this week, never a good thing for a pitcher struggling with the gopher ball and one who gives up more fly balls than grounders. If you have the depth, give Norris a week on the bench.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 21 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Verlander, Greinke, Cain, Carpenter, Kennedy, Cueto, Wilson, Price, Masterson, Morrow, Lewis, Chacin, Niemann, Jurrjens, Lohse, Zimmermann, Bedard, Niese, Kartends, Lackey, Saunders, Myers, Duensing, Vargas, Pavano, McCarthy, Eovaldi, Chen, Guthrie, Penny, Britton, Detwiler, Coleman.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 19 pitchers and how they fared.

Cecil – Advised to start. 8 Ks, 4.50 ERA, 0.786 WHIP, 14 IP, 7 ER
Garza – Advised to start. 14 Ks, 4.09 ERA, 1.364 WHIP, 11 IP, 5 ER
Harrison – Advised to start. W, 12 Ks, 4.38 ERA, 1.135 WHIP, 12.1 IP, 6 ER
Hudson – Advised to start. W, 5 Ks, 4.91 ERA, 1.909 WHIP, 12 IP, 8 ER
Masterson – Advised to start. 6 Ks, 3.72 ERA, 1.138 WHIP, 9.2 IP, 4 ER

With a little more than a month left in the season, the SIERA underperformer list is less about this year and mostly about next season. You could use the list in two ways: to target pitchers to acquire before your trading deadline (if you have one) that might come cheaper than expected given their SIERA underperformance or to get an early idea of who might be undervalued during next year’s drafts.

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Jair Jurrjens

The continuing saga of Dr. Jurrjens and Mr. Hyde is set to begin again Wednesday as Jurrjens is set to come off the disabled list and start against the Giants. Jurrjens was positively dominant in the first half, winning 12 of his 16 starts while posting an ERA under 2.00 and WHIP of just 1.07. His success came largely without strikeouts — he had the second fewest strike outs of anyone with double-digit wins — which is part of the reason his regression was so brutal in the second half.

Jurrjens’ BABIP of .260 was unsustainable, though as Jonah Keri noted, it may not have been as far out of line as it seemed. Nevertheless, Jurrjens was not only getting lucky on the balls put into play, he was also allowing a ton of balls to be put into play. When his luck began to wear out, his low strikeout rate exacerbated the problem, and he was unable to turn in a quality start in three of his four starts since the All-Star Break. It’s unlikely that Jurrjens’ first half performance is repeatable, but he isn’t as bad as his last four starts would indicate either. The truth, as it so often does, lies somewhere between the extremes.

In his four starts since the All-Star break, Jurrjens’ WHIP skyrocketed not only because of his BABIP coming back to career levels, but also because of a walk-rate that nearly doubled. Luck is what it is, but if Jurrjens wants to get close to his previous level of effectiveness, he needs to keep the extra runners off base. It goes without saying that more strikeouts and fewer walks are the keys to effectiveness, but for Jurrjens, they’re the difference between being a solid SP2 and being a fantasy also-ran down the stretch.

He gets a soft test Wednesday, so activate him without too much concern, but do keep an eye on his walks and his strikeouts going forward.

Javier Vazquez

I get the sense that Vazquez has burned a lot of bridges with fantasy owners, either in previous seasons or with his first 10 starts of 2011. I can’t blame owners for dumping him in May, after all, he had more earned runs to his name than strikeouts on June 1, but things have taken a turn for the better. Since the break, Vazquez has struck out nearly a batter an inning, and has given up more than 3 ER just once: His disaster start against the Padres on July 21.

That outing against the Padres — where he should have thrived instead of getting shelled — is emblematic of why Vazquez is owned in just 37 percent of Yahoo leagues and just 15 percent of ESPN leagues: All other things equal, a consistent player is vastly preferable to an inconsistent one, and Vazquez has been tremendously inconsistent. All pitchers carry some risk, but there aren’t many out there who offer the same range of possible production as he does.

If you need a spot starter for someone like Cole Hamels, Jonathan Sanchez, or Tommy Hanson, Vazquez is palatable in small doses, but recommending him for the rest of the season feels like a game of Russian roulette. The strikeouts aren’t a mirage, but his overall line is definitely propped up by a .262 second half BABIP. Though it is worth mentioning that his BABIP for the year is right at his career average, I would expect him to be closer to that .296 mark going forward than .262.

While upcoming starts against the Padres, Reds, and Mets don’t seem unduly arduous for Vazquez, it was exactly this kind of start that tripped him up last time. Nevertheless, if you need strikeouts, he’s a worthwhile risk for now, especially with his next start coming at PetCo.