When the FanGraphs meet-up took place in San Francisco on Tuesday night and the group was sitting around the TV hanging on each and every pitch thrown by Stephen Strasburg, inspiration hit for today’s Would You Rather column.  Proven talent versus monumental upside.  Seasoned veteran versus young upstart.  Future Hall of Famer versus….future Hall of Famer?  There are a lot of pros on each side and very few cons.  So if it were up to you…

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So, after missing last month due to a wild road trip in bison land, I am back with an updated set of rankings for your perusal. I don’t think I ever clarified how I decide to move players or maintain rankings, but it is basically strictly looking forward. If you drafted now for the rest of the year, what should the order be? I don’t care what a pitcher’s current ERA is, to me that’s just some random number the ball landed on on a roulette wheel. The skills and projected future skills are much more important and this philosophy is reflected in the rankings.

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The second — and last — regular season edition of the NL Starting Pitcher ranks is here. The top remains largely the same, but the bottom has changed quite a bit. The rankings are for the rest of the season — hence no Jordan Zimmermann — and are tiered to AFI’s top 100 film villains with a few of my favorites thrown in.

The Dr. Hannibal Lector Tier
Roy Halladay
Cliff Lee
Clayton Kershaw
Cole Hamels
Tim Lincecum

The best of the best, these pitchers have anchored real and fantasy rotations all year long. The Phillies haven’t said anything about skipping starts to keep Halladay et al. fresh for the postseason, but the possibility of that does make me a tick nervous. The fact that none of their trio is a particularly young arm bodes well for owners.

The Darth Vader Tier
Madison Bumgarner
Matt Cain
Ian Kennedy
Matt Garza
Daniel Hudson

There’s no such concern about skipping starts in this group. The West is the NL’s closest divisional race and until the gap widens, both the Diamondbacks and Giants are going to putting their best team out there, youngish starters included. Garza owns a top-10 WAR and a top-3 K-rate, yet I can’t help but feel he’s been largely forgotten this season; he could be a bargain on draft day next year.

The Sauron Tier
Zack Greinke
Tim Hudson
Stephen Strasburg
Brandon Beachy
Yovani Gallardo

Strasburg looked fantastic on Tuesday, but the Nats haven’t thrown off the reins just yet. He’d be higher, but pitch counts will hurt his ability to get wins and could make for a bad line if he has one really rough inning. Greinke is still giving up more runs than it looks like he ought to be, but the majority of his remaining starts look to be at Miller Park, where he’s been nearly unbeatable. I may be a bit bullish on Beachy, but his strikeout numbers have been good and, as one of the few healthy arms the Braves had right now, they aren’t going to clip his innings.

The HAL 9000 Tier
Roy Oswalt
Johnny Cueto
Chris Carpenter
Mat Latos
Javier Vazquez

Oswalt makes the big jump here, proving that he’s healthy and effective in returning from his back injury. Cueto’s WHIP and ERA both went up in August, but his strikeouts rose as well, so he doesn’t drop as far as he might have. Vazquez is obviously the wild card here, but he had a fantastic August and those strikeout numbers are for real.

The Harry Lime Tier
Vance Worley
Cory Luebke
Shaun Marcum
Ryan Dempster
Anibal Sanchez

Worley hasn’t lost time since Oswalt’s return, and he’s the least likely of the Phillies starters to be skipped during the playoff prep, unless they’re going to try to transition him into a bullpen role for the playoffs; it’s something to keep an eye on. Luebke could be a tier up, but I’m worried about fatigue with him. He’s walking more batters than he did in July and while I still like him, it’s enough to just tip him one run lower.

The Joker Tier
Hiroki Kuroda
Edwin Jackson
Chad Billingsley
Tim Stauffer
Ricky Nolasco

Apart from his shelling on Aug. 3, Jackson has been pitching well for the Cardinals, dropping his ERA in six consecutive starts. I must confess, I thought a move to the NL would do his strikeout numbers some good, but it hasn’t helped as much as I’d hoped. Nolasco seems to be fading as the season wraps up; he’s still performing passably, but he’s been pretty pedestrian of late.

The Auric Goldfinger Tier
Wandy Rodriguez
Ryan Vogelsong
Kyle Lohse
R.A. Dickey
John Lannan

Rodriguez had an up-and-down month of August, but his lows weren’t terrible and he posted solid strikeouts while staying Houston. Vogelsong’s calling card was his low ERA, which rose a bit in August. He’s still turning in solid outings, but he’s no longer as compelling as he was a month ago. As much as I love the knuckleballer, Dickey scares me. He had a strong August, it must be said, but I’m stuck feeling like the other shoe is going to drop.

The Agent Smith Tier
Ted Lilly
Josh Collmenter
Randy Wells
Jaime Garcia
Chris Narveson

After what has been a rough year for Wells, he turned it on August and had a solid month. He’s still allowing far too many HR and striking out too few to rise much higher than this, but if you’re digging deep, he’s been playable of late. I’ve mentioned my expectation that both Lilly and Garcia will regress already and I’m sticking by that.

The Hans Gruber Tier
Aaron Harang
Dillon Gee
Jhoulys Chacin
Derek Lowe
Henry Sosa

Chacin has already surpassed his career high in innings, and doesn’t show signs of slowing down, which concerns me not only for the end of this year, but also for next year. I’d be higher on Lowe — and more tolerant of his poorer turns — if he was going deeper in his starts. As it is, there’s just too little upside with him to make it worth sweating through starts like he had on Monday. Gee has been ebbing and flowing between good and terrible starts, allowing 1, 8, 1, and 6 ER in his last four outings. He provides solid value when he’s good, but the downside is a severe punishment.

The Major General Donald McClintock Tier
Randy Wolf
Mike Leake
Bud Norris
Esmil Rogers

Like Gee, Wolf split his time between great and execrable, but Wolf had fewer strikeouts to soften the blow of his more Mr. Hyde-like outings. The book on Norris in August is the same as it ever was: too many baserunners, too many runs, but a very nice strikeout rate. Expect the same in September from both him and Rogers.

The Wicked Witch of the East Tier
Jonathon Niese
Jair Jurrjens
Johan Santana
Tommy Hanson

I think there’s a fair chance that none of these four pitches in the regular season, which makes them virtually valueless. Unlike the guys below them, there’s at least a chance, so if you’ve got the free DL spot, you can hold on to them and hope. However, if you’re in a roster crunch, you’re probably safe dropping any one of them.

Off the list:
Jordan Zimmermann
Jason Marquis
Livan Hernandez
Carlos Zambrano
Jonathan Sanchez
Paul Maholm

Hernandez and Zimmermann made their exit from the rotation gracefully, Zambrano less so, but most of the rest of these guys fell out of the rankings due to a season-ending injury. If one of these guys is still on your roster in redraft, set them free, they won’t be back this year.

This week’s hidden gems for you deep leaguers still in the hunt for the cash include a pair of young pitchers. Just what you want to hang your season on, huh?

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As the season winds down, lets look at a pair of players that can help you make a late run…

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On Saturday, I looked at the top five SwStk% risers, so today I take a gander at the opposite end of the spectrum: the decliners. Whether due to a loss of velocity, change in pitch mix, a mechanic change, or randomness, fewer swinging strikes is usually a bad sign.

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Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 23.

Josh Collmenter – The rookie has done an excellent job of keeping the ball in the park this year, which has helped him to a 3.18 ERA compared to a 4.05 xFIP. The one team that has been able to hit the ball out of the park against Collmenter is the Rockies. He’s surrendered 4 HR in 19.1 IP versus Colorado this season. This week he has a start in Coors Field. Last time he went to Denver, Collmenter gave up 2 HR in 4.1 IP. Collmenter also starts against the Padres this week. San Diego is tied for fifth in the NL in runs scored since the All-Star break, meaning Collmenter has two potential rough outings this week. Give him a spot on your bench.

Freddy Garcia – Some thought that Garcia would fall apart down the stretch but he’s continued to produce solid outings for the Yankees here in the second half of the season. In his last five games, he’s 4-0 with a 2.01 ERA. He has a home game against the Orioles and in three previous starts against Baltimore this year, Garcia is 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA and he has 17 Ks in 18 IP. Keep Garcia active this week.

Rich Harden – With 72 Ks in 63.1 IP, Harden has given owners who picked him off the waiver wire a nice return. He’s generally been solid although he’s struggled against two teams this year – the Yankees and Rangers. Unfortunately, Harden faces the Rangers in one of his starts this week. In two games against Texas this year, Harden has allowed 9 ER in 9 IP and has a 2.222 WHIP. Put him on the bench this week.

Javier Vazquez – In his last 14 games, Vazquez has a 2.44 ERA with 16 BB and 79 Ks in 88.2 IP yet is just 5-5. This week he squares off against the Mets and Pirates. In his last two outings against New York, Vazquez has allowed just 1 ER in 14 IP. He’s yet to face Pittsburgh this year but the Pirates are reeling, having won just 17 out of 49 games since the All-Star break. Vazquez is pitching great and has favorable matchups so make sure he’s in your lineup this week.

Dontrelle Willis – How much money would you have wagered on Willis making it back to the majors in 2011 and being an effective pitcher? After 10 starts he has a 3.87 xFIP and he’s hurled a Quality Start in eight of his 10 games for the Reds. No longer the electric pitcher he was in Florida, Willis now throws his fastball under 60 percent of the time. He now throws a bunch of sliders while still mixing in a changeup. This week he has road starts in Chicago and Colorado and he’s been a slightly better pitcher on the road, where he has a 3.64 xFIP. Willis had his longest outing of the year the last time he faced COL, as he went 8 IP and had 10 Ks. He’s available in most leagues and is a nice streaming option.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 23 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Lee, Haren, Shields, Beckett, Gallardo, T. Hudson, Wilson, Jimenez, Bumgarner, Kuroda, Worley, Garza, Fister, Wolf, Stauffer, Lilly, Lowe, Capuano, Strasburg, Carmona, McDonald, Humber, Westbrook, Lannan, H. Alvarez, Miley, Sosa, Duffy, Paulino, L. Perez, LeBlanc, Stewart, Hunter, Swarzak, Batista, A. Vasquez, Diamond.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 21 pitchers and how they fared.

Carmona – Advised to start. 8 Ks, 4.38 ERA, 1.297 WHIP, 12.1 IP, 6 ER
Colon – Advised to start. 9 Ks, 4.50 ERA, 1.071 WHIP, 14 IP, 7 ER
Dempster – Advised to sit. 11 Ks, 7.20 ERA, 1.800 WHIP, 10 IP, 8 ER
Nolasco – Advised to sit. 8 Ks, 5.40 ERA, 1.500 WHIP, 6.2 IP, 4 ER
Norris – Advised to sit. 16 Ks, 4.50 ERA, 1.167 WHIP, 12 IP, 6 ER

I like to think of SwStk% as a good proxy for the quality of a pitcher’s repertoire. So I thought it would be interesting to take a look at the top five pitchers who have seen their SwStk% increase the most since 2010. Whether it is due to a jump in velocity, better location, added movement, or a change in pitch selection, a rise in the metric is usually a sign that the pitcher will enjoy more success, or at the very least, a higher strikeout rate.

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Tom Milone

Starting next week, the Nationals’ rotation will have a distinctly different look than it has for the previous five months. Jordan Zimmermann is done, having provided the Nats with 26 top-class starts. His 3.5 WAR is a team-best for now, unfortunately he won’t have a chance to improve the mark. Instead, he hands the baton to Milone, rather than Brad Peacock, who may not join the rotation at all.

Milone, a 24-year-old product of USC, has risen methodically through the Nationals’ system, a level per year, though he hasn’t garnered much attention from prospect hounds. Baseball America ranked his control as the best of the Nationals’ minor leaguers, but left him off their top 10 list. That should be seen not as an indictment of Milone, but as a reminder of just how good the Nationals could be in the near future.

Milone had a strong season for Triple-A Syracuse, raising his K/9 while dropping both his H/9 and BB/9 compared with his 2010 year at Double-A Harrisburg. In 26 starts, he posted an ERA of 3.22 with a WHIP of 1.03 while striking out nearly a batter per inning. While it goes without saying that most pitchers do better when they keep hitters off base, for Milone, the difference is substantive. His K/9 falls from 10.3 to 7.8 and his WHIP rises from 0.96 to 1.17 when he has runners on, and while he does get some of those strikeouts back with runners in scoring position, his WHIP rises again, up to 1.25.

Given the choice between the two, I’d obviously rather grab the other addition to Nationals’ rotation — you may have heard of him, one Stephen Strasburg — and he’s actually more widely available than I would have guessed: 49 percent of Yahoo leagues and 42 percent of ESPN leagues. I’m interested in seeing if Milone’s control will hold up at this level, but I don’t see him having enough upside to make him worth the gamble in fantasy. A rising walk rate since the All-Star break is of particular concern, especially when paired with his struggles with runners on base.

Jaime Garcia

With a month of the season left to go, Garcia has thrown almost exactly the same number of innings he threw last year with the exact same number of strikeouts in one fewer start. While that parallel is a nice bit of trivia, it also highlights the fact that Garcia has already passed his previous career high in innings pitched with potentially four scheduled starts left, even with his next turn through the rotation being skipped.

The Cardinals haven’t said anything about shutting Garcia down quite yet, but perhaps you ought to think about it. He’s showing serious signs of fatigue already: His strikeouts are down, both absolutely and in terms of K/9; his walks and hits are both up, giving him a WHIP of almost 2.00 this month; and he recorded an out in the sixth inning or later just once in August, making his rising ERA and WHIP all the more painful for head-to-head players. Even if he can keep himself from getting worse, we’re in the part of the fantasy season where one bad start can have unwanted consequences.

If you’re in a position where you are absolutely stuck with Garcia until the season’s dying breath, you can save yourself some heartache by at least benching Garcia on the road. At home, he holds a 2.72 ERA with a 1.11 WHIP, but Mr. Hyde comes out away from Busch Stadium as his ERA balloons to 4.68 and his WHIP jumps to 1.59.

With the Cards having all but fallen out of the race in the NL Central, it wouldn’t surprise me to see them use Garcia’s spot in the rotation to check out some a young pitcher or two, but even if he isn’t officially shut down, his ability to be a positive contributor to your playoff dreams is limited at this point.

Fantasy owners, we’ve reached the home stretch; the time where September call-ups can make a difference in the playoffs or pay dividends towards the future. Even though some of the top prospects have already been called up, there are some other interesting players worth taking a flier on as the season comes to a conclusion. While there’s no guarantee these players will push your team over the edge; taking a shot on certain players can better educate a fantasy owner for next season as well — when the player might be given a larger role. Ross Detwiler is the type of player that fits this description, and he’s finally getting a chance to show what he can do at the major league level.
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