Predicting the future performance of baseball players is a wildly frustrating endeavor. When projecting a hitter’s stat line, it’s impossible to account for the player having a BABIP that’s nowhere close to their career average. When projecting a pitcher, it’s hard to know when their HR/FB rate is going to swing drastically away from their career average. The shifts in “luck” make projecting seem like a fool’s errand at times.

But it may be even more frustrating when something within the player’s control changes completely. When predicting the future, you largely have to rely on the assumption that what the player puts into the equation will remain relatively the same. But of course that’s not the case. Hitters will lose plate discipline out of nowhere. Pitchers will lose the ability to induce swings and misses. It just happens. But it’s often very hard to know when those changes are going to happen.

Another example of the input changing is a shift in the mix of pitches a pitcher will use. Read the rest of this entry »

Among qualified starters, right-hander Anibal Sanchez has arguably been the best pitcher in all of baseball. His 1.45 FIP leads Major League Baseball, and if you’re one who favors SIERA over FIP, his 2.50 SIERA still ranks third. It’s the type of pitcher the Tigers hoped he could become when they inked him to a five-year, $88M contract over the winter.

Sanchez’s rate statistics have been beautiful this season, but perhaps the biggest story for fantasy owners is the significant uptick in strikeouts. His 31.3% strikeout percentage is by far the best of his career. Prior to 2013, his career-high K% was 24.3% in 2011. The massive jump has left many owners wondering if it’s sustainable.

Read the rest of this entry »

Over his past 28 starts, Mike Minor has a 2.75 ERA. That is just under a full season worth of starts with a miniscule ERA, so I think it is about time Minor is taken a bit more seriously. Even amongst the Braves crowd, and I know because I am entrenched in it, he is looked at among many as a back end type who is on a hot streak. People are just waiting for him to explode and revert back to the Minor of old.

Given his peripheral metrics, there is reason to expect that to happen. His BABIP has been suppressed over the past two seasons, with a .252 mark last year and a .239 this season. While those numbers are unsustainable, the fact that he allows the most fly balls in baseball should let him continue to post low BABIPs even with high home run rates.
Read the rest of this entry »

I jinxed it. Got all fat and happy with a couple of weeks of success and trusted my gut a little too much. Straily fail, Marcum (continued) fail, Slowey mega-fail. Do I still believe in these guys? Not really with Slowey, but I stand by the fact that Straily has plus talent (though he’ll be sent down soon after another bad start Wednesday), while Marcum is still working his way through myriad problems. Onward and upward, streamers. Trust me one more time, as we may have a format change for next week. (And hey, if you want some confirmation I’m not completely full of it, I AM doing well in Fangraphs the Game for starting pitchers. It’s something, I guess.) As always, I aim for 50/25/15/5 ownership, roughly, when the streamers available allow.

Edwin Jackson (25% owned) – I recommended him last weekend and he did us no harm, so let’s roll the dice again, shall we? The Mets strike out at an above-average clip and are a below-average offense. They do take a fair number of walks, though, and Jackson’s control is yet to come into form this season (9.9% walk rate, his highest since 2007). Still, Jackson gets the strikeouts you seek and has a 3.50 FIP and 3.70 xFIP sitting below his 6.02 ERA. He’s not the best bet for a win thanks to anemic run support from his Cubs, but he should be safe for the ratios and punch-outs.
Read the rest of this entry »

We know he is a pitcher, and we know he is a relatively good pitcher who is left-handed and pitches in one of the most hitter friendly parks in the sport. We also know that in 282.2 innings he has been worth 5.1 WAR, which is awfully impressive. But just how good is he and how heavily should you be targeting him in fantasy leagues?
Read the rest of this entry »

Travis Wood has a 2.03 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP. He’s now thrown 53.1 innings and given up only 31 hits, striking out 36 opposing batters. Travis Wood will destroy all comers.

That’s probably what owners are telling you anyway.

You don’t have to dig too deep to notice that Wood’s FIP is 3.65 and xFIP is 4.46 (his career xFIP is 4.44). His strikeout rate and walk rates are lined up neatly with his career averages (and neither are very good), and he’s really living off that .186 BABIP and 83% strand rate. If you’re busy, there’s the end of the story, move on to another award winner by Jeff Sullivan.

Read the rest of this entry »

Andrew Cashner has always been a tantalizing pitcher. Armed with impressive stuff, he’s already shown flashes of brilliance in the rotation. But due to injuries, we haven’t been able to see Cashner dominate over a long period of time. With Cashner getting his fifth start of the season Tuesday, he’s already matched his previous career high. The results have been mixed. Cashner’s getting by with a strong 2.84 ERA, but his 4.04 FIP and 4.34 xFIP indicate struggles are ahead. A major part of that has been Cashner’s inability to get strikeouts. Cashner struck out 28.8% of hitters as a starter last year, but that’s down to 17.1% in 2013. The biggest culprit appears to be the disappearance of his hard slider.

Read the rest of this entry »

John Lackey | Boston Red Sox | @ Tampa Bay on Tuesday

Adding John Lackey is somewhat like having a huge bowl of ice cream 30 minutes before bed. You hate yourself and know it’s not really good for you. But you can’t help yourself can you? It’s hard to turn down a few scoops of your favorite flavor, and it’s hard to turn down a name you recognize that is currently attached to a 2.82 ERA and 3.23 xFIP.

Lackey has those numbers thanks to a 24.7% K% and 7.2% BB%. He can probably maintain a walk rate like that, but the K rate will likely regress. His swinging strike rate isn’t terrible at 8.1%, but he’s not going to strike out more than a batter per inning at that rate. And his velocity isn’t quite what it used to be. Expect him to settle in the 18%-19% range.

The matchup with Tampa actually isn’t great. They started slow, but they’re currently 4th in the league in wRC+ and lead the league in that category so far in May. But even if you decide to pass on Lackey on Tuesday, he’s worth picking up as a flier. Read the rest of this entry »

Derek Holland is starting to figure things out. After four up-and-down seasons, the 26-year-old lefty is pitching like a top-of-the-rotation starter. Holland has always shown the ability to surprise, but what he’s done this year is even more unexpected. Through 49.2 innings, Holland’s 2.40 FIP ranks ninth among qualified starters. Even when you adjust for his home run rate, Holland’s 3.28 xFIP says his performance is legit. Holland is relying on the same five pitches he’s used his entire career, but he’s utilizing the slider more often. The result of that change has been driving Holland’s success this season.

Read the rest of this entry »

Cole Hamels has been among the finest starting pitchers going on six seasons now. In fantasy baseball terms, during that time span, Hamels has been a beast in most formats. He’s 7th overall in wins with 82, second in WHIP with a stingy 1.13, and 6th in strikeouts with well over 1100. And in the last two seasons, he’s seemingly taken his game to a new level, compiling 9 wins over replacement between 2011-2012. But so far this year, his results haven’t been what owners have been looking for. A 4.40 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, and a 7.49 K/9 rate are all well behind his career averages.

Is he hurt? Is he on the path to mediocrity? Did he fake his birth certificate?

Read the rest of this entry »