Right-hander Jarrod Parker was one of my biggest sleepers coming into the season. He quietly compiled a 3.47 ERA with a 3.43 FIP last year, and I predicted the strikeout rate would jump in 2013, resulting in even higher value for fantasy owners.

After a 7.36 ERA in the month of April, though, many owners quickly jumped off the bandwagon and dumped Parker on the waiver wire. His numbers were ugly across the board. The strikeouts were down, the walks were up and home runs were a legitimate problem. Opposing batters were hitting .350 off the 24-year-old starter, and he had allowed a staggering 43 hits in only 29.1 innings.

However, in recent starts, Parker has turned it around in a big way.

Since the calendar flipped to May, the right-hander has compiled a stellar 2.85 ERA in his last eight starts. His strikeout rate has enjoyed a modest bump, but the most significant improvement lies in his walk rate. He’s no longer doling out 4.91 walks per nine innings, as he did in April. Instead, his walk rate in May and June has dropped to 2.68 BB/9 — and his opponent batting average has plummeted to .199 over the same stretch.

It’s important to note Parker has greatly benefited from a .200 BABIP in his last eight starts, which is certainly a contributing factor to his turn-around. Fantasy owners shouldn’t expect a sub-3.00 ERA from him the remainder of the season. But if the walks stay down and the strikeout numbers (at least) hover around his career-average, he should continue to be very effective.

The real question remains, though. Will Jarrod Parker’s strikeout rate increase to match his swinging-strike rate?

His 9.9% swinging-strike rate currently ranks 25th in all of baseball, among qualified starters. That’s better than James Shields, Shelby Miller, Chris Sale and Clay Buchholz. Yet his strikeout rate continues to underperform. He compiled a 6.95 K/9 strikeout rate a year ago with a 9.9% swinging-strike rate, and with an identical swinging-strike rate this season, his K-rate is only 6.18 K/9.

It makes sense to think his strikeout rate would increase, based on those numbers. He gets guys to chase out of the strike zone and misses plenty of bats. He even had solid strikeout numbers in the minors. At this point, though, it’s becoming a trend for Parker. Perhaps he’s just going to be a guy whose strikeout rate never matches his peripheral numbers — much like right-hander Hiroki Kuroda. Kuroda has a career 9.9% SwStr%, yet owns a career 6.71 K/9 strikeout rate.

I’m not sure what to make of the large differential, but it is clear that Parker can be effective without the gaudy strikeout numbers. He showed that last year and has shown it in his last eight starts. If his home-run rate comes back down to earth — and it should, pitching in Oakland — he should be a solid fantasy starter throughout the remainder of the season.

And Jarrod Parker remains criminally underowned, despite his recent string of success on the mound. He’s only owned in 65.7% of leagues, meaning he could be a lovely waiver-wire pickup for many owners looking to bolster their pitching staff.

Last season, Erasmo Ramirez pretty much came out of nowhere to post a 3.36 ERA (3.61 SIERA) between the bullpen and rotation. He finished the season in the Mariners rotation and over eight starts, posted a 3.64 ERA with a strikeout rate of 7.9. That performance was enough to intrigue fantasy owners and he was considered a sleeper by many. In fact, RotoGrapher Brett Talley liked him enough to boldly predict Ramirez would finish the season as a top 60 fantasy starter. Unfortunately, he has yet to throw a pitch for the Mariners this season, but you would do well to remind yourself who the man they call Erasmo is all about.

Read the rest of this entry »

If you have not already done so, it is well past time to let go of Dan Haren. I have been one of the biggest Dan Haren fans for some time. He encompasses all I like to see from a pitcher, or at least he did when he was good and healthy. He is extremely athletic, he hardly ever walks batters, he gets a good deal of strikeouts without having dominant stuff, and he had a large amount of success in both leagues.
Read the rest of this entry »

Sometimes it’s a good thing to leave a draft with holes because then there is no need to think about who to drop when an attractive player appears on free agency. Of course, this is a situation I have never encountered, since all my fantasy teams are always perfect 🙂 But seriously, I literally dropped my starting middle infielder this week in my 12-team mixed league, with no healthy replacement to take his spot, because I simply had to add Hector Santiago for his start against the Astros this week.

Read the rest of this entry »

Hector Santiago deserves a full write-up on one fact alone: he throws a screwball. Other than Daniel Herrera — the short former Red and Met with floppy hair that hasn’t seen the majors or minors since 2012 — there’s really nobody who can claim the pitch. And with Herrera MIA, well, there can be only one. Now that Jake Peavy is down for at least six weeks with trunk issues, there’s even more reason to take a look at the new-former-new-former White Sox starter.

Read the rest of this entry »

Yesterday, I unveiled another use of a pitcher’s BABIP, besides quickly identifying who has benefited from some good fortune and whose luck should improve. I focused on the K/9 rate and how a low or inflated BABIP could dramatically affect it as it increases or reduces the number of hitters a pitcher will face each inning, giving him additional or fewer opportunities to strike batters out.

Read the rest of this entry »

Francisco Liriano has been a tantalizing player over his career. Occasionally, he can look like one of the best pitchers in baseball. But most of the time, his performance fails to live up to his elite stuff. There’s been far more of the former version this year. Through 36 innings, Liriano has a 1.62 FIP. Liriano hasn’t thrown enough innings to be considered a “qualified” pitcher, but his strong FIP would rank first among starters. By now, we’ve seen enough about Liriano to know that, based on his career, this breakout is not guaranteed to continue. But Liriano has adopted an altered approach this season that may keep him from his usual roller coaster performance.

Read the rest of this entry »

We all know by now how to best utilize a pitcher’s BABIP data during and after the season. For the most part, a pitcher with a BABIP significantly below the league average is probably going to see that metric rise, while a pitcher with a mark above the league average will likely post a better one moving forward. But that’s not the only use of BABIP. It also affects a pitcher’s strikeout and walk per nine innings rates. This is why many now prefer to use strikeout and walk percentage.

Read the rest of this entry »

Julio Teheran is owned in just 52% of Yahoo! leagues but I expect that number to jump up pretty swiftly after last night’s performance. If he’s available, it’s time to put a claim in on him and offer up a hefty amount of FAAB if that’s how your league operates. The one concern around owning Teheran and investing a lot into him this season was the return of Brandon Beachy. With Teheran’s sixth straight quality start, he has all but assured he will remain in the rotation when Beachy returns in the next two weeks.
Read the rest of this entry »

On May 17th of last year Yan Gomes of the Toronto Blue Jays became the first Brazilian to ever appear in a Major League Baseball game. Chicago White Sox prospect Andre Rienzo is a strong candidate to be the second – and the first pitcher.

Read the rest of this entry »