My list of pitchers I want to look at is getting a little thin. Let me know if you have any suggestions. I have access to MiLB.tv so I can also look at some minor leaguers.
Why I watched: Recent rumors of him getting traded.
Game(s) Watched: 9/19/14 vs White Sox
Game Thoughts
• His two stop windup drives me nuts. Here are three examples at the 25 sec to the 50 sec mark from his start before the one I watched.
Why I watched: Rookie in Colorado
Game(s) Watched: 9/10/14 vs Mets
Game Thoughts
• The left-hander’s straight fastball was between 88 and 94 mph. It gets an outstanding 50% GB%, but doesn’t have a ton of noticeable downward break.
• He also threw an 83 mph slider which broke in the 10-4 direction. It was a plus pitch when he commanded it. A few times it barely broke, if at all. Hanging breaking balls usually go for home runs. The pitch is a killer on lefties. Overall, he is posted a 2.22 FIP against lefties and 4.35 against righties.
Madison Bumgarner has emerged as a reliable fantasy ace, one that nobody can ignore after a fantastic postseason. He practically won the World Series all by himself (more on that in this year’s THT Annual) with a 1.03 ERA, four wins, and a save over 52.2 October innings.
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Why I watched: Picked up some early and late starts with OK numbers.
Game(s) Watched: 9/25/14 vs Pirates
Game Thoughts
• The 26-year-old right hander threw two fastballs, a two- and four-seamer. Starting with the 90-92 mph four-seamer. It is fairly straight pitch with a bit of glove side run. It is about the only pitch he can throw for strikes. Here are his 2014 Zone% values :
Pitch: Zone%
Four season: 57%
Two seam: 40%
Curve/Slider: 27%
Change: 34%
If he needs to throw a strike, it’s only the four-seamer. Some hitters seemed to be looking for it when they are ahead in count since his other pitches rarely go for strikes. While I didn’t notice it during the game, it does get an insane amount of goundballs (51% during the season).
Here’s my ballsiest, way-too-early, 2015 Fantasy Baseball Prediction: Trevor Cahill becomes a fantasy asset again at age 27: the magical-mystery-kind.
For only the second time of his career last year, his FIP was sub-4.00, but his left-on-base rate was only 62.6% and his BABIP was 65 points higher than his career rate (.350 vs. .285). He was the trifecta (unlucky HR/FB rate as well) away from a 6.00+ ERA season.
The outcomes were bad. However, the outcomes on the pitch level were still impressive at times:
On 7/18, Madison Bumgarner changed his positioning on the mound. Eno noted it and Madison Bumgarner confirmed it. Bumgarner has worked to make his pitches (and I presume his release point) very similar through video and in front of a mirror “making sure he sets up in in the right places.”
Eno summed it up: “Bumgarner is ready to make the most of his old playbook. Throw lots of fastballs, cutters, and curves, all from the same release point, all with similar spin, and all exploding out of a slow, deliberate delivery.”
Last week, I examined rookie pitchers Daniel Norris and Rafael Montero for my weekly Quick Looks piece. With both pitchers, they had several pitches which just got away from them. There was no way a hitter was going even think about swinging at them. These pitches put the pitcher constantly behind in the count. While I could use Zone% to determine the amount pitches in or out of the strike zone, I wanted to look a little further out of the zone to find pitches not even close to the strike zone and I ended up with, Way Out of the Zone Percentage (WOOZ%).
I have wanted to look into this subject for while after hearing Brian Bannister mention something in a Baseball Prospectus podcast. He said some pitchers can have problems with their grips as they transition from the higher seamed minor league baseball to the lower seamed MLB baseball. Specifically, he noted it hurt pitchers who throw four-seam fastballs and curve balls. Since starting Quick Looks, which concentrates on young, new pitchers, I have seen a ton of pitches not near the zone which may be caused by not having a good grip. I needed to find and solution and for now it is WOOZ%.
Why I watched: Outstanding in the bullpen, but transitioning to starting rotation.
Game(s) Watched: 9/28/14 vs Mariners
Game Thoughts
• His fastball was between 90-93 mph and was straight. It had the illusion of a rising fastball and over the course of the season has only generated a 32% GB%. He seems to only throw this pitch at the edges of the strike zone and will throw the slider or change when he needs a called strike.
• His change and slider are a tough to tell apart. They both come in at 85 mph, but the slider drops and runs more than the change. The change has been his bread and butter with a 52% GB% and a 27% SwStr%. The slider’s results have been worse than the change with a 41% GB% and 13% SwStr%. He has used the change more this past month.
The Astros apparently listened to their analytics team when they acquired Collin McHugh. You see, McHugh’s spin rate on his curveball is exceptional. Maybe it’s not quite that cut and dry, we’ve talked about his move to the four-seamer over the two-seamer was great for him. But read this newest snippet on McHugh and you’ll see that spin rate was huge for his acquisition:
The Astros’ analysts noticed that McHugh had a world-class curveball. Most curves spin at about 1,500 times per minute; McHugh’s spins 2,000 times. The more spin, the more the ball moves during the pitch—and the more likely batters are to miss it. Houston snapped him up. “We identified him as someone whose surface statistics might not indicate his true value,” says David Stearns, the team’s 29-year-old assistant general manager.
This is it, folks. Your last chance to skim the wire, trying to scrape up every last win you can, or rack up enough last-minute strikeouts to gain a roto point. With one exception, all the following pitchers are available in more than 95 percent of Yahoo leagues and, depending on which stats you’re chasing, can help give your team that eleventh-hour boost to championship glory. (If you’re hunting wins, target the Saturday guys, because Sunday is far dicier in that department.)
Saturday 9/27:
Rafael Montero vs HOU
Montero, a preseason top-five prospect in the Mets system known for his excellent command, has actually had some pretty serious command issues ever since arriving in the majors, as his hideous 4.85 BB/9 will attest. On the bright side, he’s still been piling up strikeouts at a solid rate (8.31 K/9).