Yesterday, I shared which starting pitchers have suffered from the most rotten luck so far this season by comparing their ERAs to their SIERA marks. Naturally, today it’s time to look at the opposite side of the coin — those whose ERAs are not supporting by their underlying peripherals and have significantly higher SIERA marks. Let’s take a gander.
We have come a long way when it comes to evaluating a pitcher’s performance. No longer do we look at W/L record, hits allowed and other metrics that are greatly influenced by factors outside the pitcher’s control. We have learned to focus on the pitcher’s underlying skills. However, it remains very difficult to look past ERA for the majority of fantasy owners. This is somewhat understandable when looking at full year results, but when we’re still just a month and a half into the season with pitchers generally in the 50-60 innings range, ERA should be almost completely ignored. ERA estimators such as SIERA are much more predictive of rest of season performance. So with that in mind, here are your SIERA underperformers and acquisition target list. I have only included pitchers whose SIERA marks are below 4.00. If a pitcher is sporting a 7.00 ERA with a 4.70 SIERA, then sure he may be a bit unlucky, but he still stinks!
Over the last week, a trio of interesting pitchers joined their respective American League teams’ starting rotations. While two of the three were likely already owned in AL-Only leagues and almost have to blindly be slotted onto a fantasy team’s active roster, the bigger question is whether these guys are worth considering in shallower formats. Let’s dive in.
It’s tough to say San Diego Padres’ pitcher Andrew Cashner is breaking out. After posting a 3.09 ERA, and a 3.35 FIP, over 175 innings in 2013, Cashner had officially arrived. On top of that, his second half success hinted that there was even more in the tank. If there was one complaint about Cashner’s game, it was that his strikeout rate as a reliever failed to translate in a starting role. He’s put some of those concerns to rest in 2014. Through nine starts, Cashner’s posted a 2.67 ERA, with an equally respectable 2.81 FIP. He’s also managed to pull his strikeout rate into an acceptable area. It can’t be called a breakout, but it’s definitely another step forward in his development.
It’s very sad. The man that threw the most curveballs in baseball (with the highest whiff rate among curveballs) is now hurt. It’s almost like there’s been work on the subject.
But Jose Fernandez is gone. You can’t have him back, not this year. So it’s time to hit the wire. And let’s use some whiff rates to see what we can find. I’ll just look for surprising league-leading pitches in each category. One standout pitch might be enough for you right now, especially if it comes with some other surprises once we jump in.
Moving to the National League from the American League is always a boost, as is moving from a park like US Celullar to Turner Field. To boot, having the Atlanta Braves defense behind him, most notably Andrelton Simmons and Jason Heyward, should give Floyd’s numbers a bit of a boost as well.
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As we’ve spent the past few weeks picking the bones of injury replacements here in the waiver wire dumpster, let’s turn to our other pastime in this business: placing bets on penny stock prospects in the hopes they’ll yield some value. In the cases of the Diamondbacks and the Mets, however, we’re talking about two sub-.500 teams, which presents the possibility that these young guns could stick around in the majors with some regular playing time — presuming, of course, that they produce.
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Last weekend, the Blue Jays called up consensus top-100 prospect Marcus Stroman, adding him to their bullpen in a middle relief role. It would be silly to expect him to stay in the bullpen for long, as Toronto’s rotation is just too thin and shallow for Stroman to pitch in relief long-term.
Brandon Morrow is already hurt (again), and also hadn’t yet been able to improve on last year’s 5.63 earned run average. Dustin McGowan, having thrown 30 innings so far this season, has already tossed more frames in the majors than he did in any given year from 2009-2013, and hasn’t been particularly good himself (4.80 ERA, 4.67 FIP, 5.41 xFIP).
It’s a shame that pretty much no one saw this coming. The question, then: What now?
Jordan Lyles, of the Colorado Rockies, has a 2.62 ERA. Yes, it’s after only seven starts (44 2/3 stanzas). But it’s kind of supported, with a 3.41 FIP, a 3.60 xFIP and a 3.76 SIERA. Those figures say that a correction is coming, but not necessarily the kind you’d expect for a pitcher who makes half of his starts at Coors Field and has a 13.6 K%. If you want real absurdity, check out his 1.25 ERA in three home starts (21 2/3 innings).
Collin McHugh is an example of precisely why fantasy owners shy away from spending a whole lot on pitching at their auctions/drafts. There is simply so much more value that comes along during the season from pitchers plucked from free agency that it makes sense to spend the majority of your budget on offense. McHugh has only started three games, but if he did qualify for the leaderboard, he’d rank fourth among all starters in strikeout percentage. Naturally, 99% of fantasy owners are likely asking themselves the same question — Collin McWho?