In 2008, Ian Stewart posted a .259/.349/.455 line with ten homers in 266 at bats. However, Stewart also struck out in 35% of his at bats. His .259 batting average was inflated by a .362 BABIP – yes, he hit line drives on 25% of his balls in play, suggesting that his BABIP was not abnormally high, but that line-drive percentage was well out of line with line-drive percentages that he had put up throughout his career, and there’s no reason to think that it (or the high BABIP) will continue next season. Thus, it would follow that Stewart’s batting average should fall.

But no so fast. Stewart struck out a LOT this year – in fact, only five players with at least 200 plate appearances struck out more often. However, Stewart’s plate discipline from this year, as well as his minor league track record, both suggest that he will not continue to strike out as often in the future.

In triple-A this year, Stewart struck out in 25.7% of his at bats. Last year in triple-A he struck out in 22.2% of his at bats. In fact, throughout his minor league career Stewart struck out in 23.6% of his at bats, despite being young for his level most of the time.

Of course, it’s more difficult to hit in the majors than in the minors. That being said, Stewart’s plate discipline numbers also suggest that his strikeout rate will come down in the future.

Stewart only swung at 28.5% of pitches out of the strike zone – right at major league average in 2008. Even more telling, however, is his contact percentage. Stewart made contact with 71.3% of the pitches he swung at – a low number, yes, but higher than other players with similar strikeout rates. For example, Mark Reynolds, Jack Cust, and Ryan Howard made contact with 62.3%, 65.1%, and 66.5% of the pitches they swung at, respectively.

Furthermore, Stewart is only 23 years old. Yes, he will probably strike out a lot in the future, but he is quite unlikely to strike out in 35% of his at bats, as he did this year. Therefore, even if his BABIP falls next year (which it probably will), his batting average may not fall if he indeed strikes out less often.

Stewart also hit a high proportion of fly balls this year, both in the majors and the minors. However, last year more than half of his balls in play were grounders. If Stewart can maintain his high amount of fly balls, Coors Field will allow him to hit a lot of homers. If he reverts to his groundballing ways, his power will suffer.

While Stewart is raw and rather risky, he has a lot of upside, especially given the fact that he plays for Colorado and will qualify at third base. If he can cut is strikeout rate, his batting average won’t fall too much even after his BABIP falls, and if Stewart can continue to hit lots of fly balls he could produce excellent power numbers.

Kevin Slowey had a solid year for the Twins, posting a 3.99 ERA in 160 innings. Slowey’s biggest strength is his impeccable control – he issued only 24 walks in 160 innings, the lowest walk rate (1.35 per nine) of any pitcher who pitched at least 100 innings this year.

However, Slowey also struck out his share of hitters, accumulating 123 strikeouts. But what’s more, Slowey appeared to improve his strikeout rate as the season wore on.

In his first ten starts of the season, Slowey sported a solid 4.37 ERA, and had walked only nine batters in 57 innings. However, true to scouting reports, had struck out only 39 – for a rate of 6.15 per nine. This was more than enough to get by, considering his incredibly low walk rate, but it was far from dominant.

But then Slowey had a start in San Diego.

I don’t know if there is a pitcher in baseball better suited for PETCO Park than Kevin Slowey – a flyball pitcher who attacks the strike zone. Slowey predictably pitched very well on June 24 in San Diego, allowing no runs or walks in six innings, and striking out seven. And for only the second time all season, Slowey induced ten swinging strikes in his start.

Slowey carried this into his next two starts, inducing seventeen and ten swinging strikes in them, respectively. And from that point forward, Slowey was a different pitcher.

Starting with his June 24 start in San Diego, Slowey finished the season with a 3.77 ERA in 102 innings. He still walked a phenomenally low amount of hitters – 15, to be exact – but his strikeouts went up. In those 102 innings, he struck out 84 batters, for a rate of 7.41 per nine. He remained homer-prone, allowing 12 long balls during the stretch, but the increase in strikeouts was coupled with an increase in the amount of swinging strikes he induced as well.

Before June 24, batters swung and missed at 7.9% of Slowey’s pitches. After (and including) June 24, batters swung and missed at 9.2% of his pitches. During this time, Slowey received approximately the same percentage of called strikes. In other words, batters were taking pitches for strikes just as often, but were swinging and missing more often, leading to additional strikeouts.

It would be okay for a pitcher who walks as few batters as Slowey to only strike out six batters per nine. But if a pitcher like Slowey can get that strikeout rate up over seven per nine, then we’re talking about someone with a good chance of posting an ERA around 3.50 (or lower) – even with his propensity to give up homers. Furthermore, Slowey’s absurdly low walk rate helps keep his WHIP low, giving him increased value in fantasy leagues.

Slowey has always been a fly ball pitcher – almost 45% of his balls in play were fly balls this year – and, since he doesn’t throw particularly hard, he is almost certainly going to be prone to the long ball. However, he’s so stingy with free passes that many of the homers hit against him are going to be solo shots. Furthermore, if he can maintain the pace at which he was striking batters out during the second half of the season, he will curtail his homer total simply because batters won’t put as many balls in play.

Think of Kevin Slowey as someone who can post an ERA of around 4, a WHIP of around 1.15 or 1.20, with a strikeout rate of approximately six batters per nine (which equates to 133 Ks over 200 innings) who plays on a good-but-not-great team. It’s unlikely that Slowey will be much worse than this.

However, if the Slowey we saw in the second half of the season is for real, he is capable of putting up an ERA of around 3.40-3.60, with a WHIP in the 1.10 range and a strikeout rate of 7.5 per nine (equaling 167 Ks over 200 innings). This may be optimistic, but Slowey has shown that he is capable of putting up these numbers for an extended period of time.

Draft Slowey expecting the conservative set of numbers – which are still pretty good. But don’t be surprised if he exceeds those expectations.

Andrew Miller may have been the unluckiest pitcher in baseball in 2008.

Miller posted a 5.87 ERA in 107 innings, and eventually earned a ticket back to triple-A. However, Miller’s BABIP was .346 – fourth highest of all pitchers who threw at least 100 innings. His LOB% was 59.9% – second highest of all pitchers who threw at least 100 innings. While BABIP and LOB% are correlated – if you give up more hits on balls in play, you’re less likely to strand runners on base – it’s not an exact correlation. For example, Miller’s LOB% was lower than the three pitchers who posted a worse BABIP this year.

The combination of Miller’s awful BABIP and awful LOB% will probably make this next statement not terribly surprising, but interesting nonetheless:

Andrew Miller had the largest discrepancy between his FIP and ERA of any pitcher in baseball who pitched at least 100 innings.

Miller’s FIP was 4.00, while his ERA was 5.87. There is no logical reason why Andrew Miller’s FIP should “overrate” him – more likely, Miller simply experienced a large confluence of random variation, leading him to give up many more runs than he “should” have.

Miller’s 89/57 K/BB ratio was less than desirable, but the high amount of strikeouts does bode rather well for him. He induced a decent number of ground balls – 45.9%, to be exact – but his track record suggests that this number may go up, thereby reducing the number of homers he allows.

I am not suggesting that Andrew Miller is going to morph into a fantasy ace next season. However, his 5.87 ERA is probably going to completely scare away many people. You, the astute fantasy player, will understand that Miller suffered from a tremendous amount of bad luck last year and is likely to see his ERA fall simply due to regression. A guy who strikes out 7.5 batters per nine and has an ERA around 4.20 is valuable, especially if he can be had very late in drafts. Furthermore, Miller has even more upside beyond that (although it’s rather unlikely that he’ll reach it in 09).

Andrew Miller is no ace (at least not yet), but he’s a heck of a lot better than his 2008 number suggest.

Ever since the Kansas City Royals drafted him 14th overall in the 2004 amateur entry draft, Billy Butler has been known for his prodigious hitting skills. The 6-1, 240 pounder started off his professional career as a third baseman, but his lack of lateral agility forced a move across the diamond to first base. Even over there, Butler is a charter member of the Jason Giambi close-your-eyes-and-fall School of First Basemen. But it’s his bat that we want to focus on.

Butler has essentially made a mockery out of minor league pitching, compiling a stunning .336/.416/.561 career line in five seasons. While demonstrating ample power (.225) and patience (13.3 BB%), Butler has also managed to strike out just 17.4% of the time, an impressive number for a guy with plenty of juice in his bat.

The 22 year-old spent parts of the 2007 and 2008 seasons with the Royals, and has compiled a .282/.334/.420 line in 838 PA. He hasn’t been quite as patient in the majors to this point (7.2 BB%), but he has managed to whiff in just 12.3% of his at-bats and has made contact within the strike zone 91.7% of the time (the league average from 2005-2007 was about 88%). Butler’s .137 ISO strikes one as pretty tame considering his minor league pedigree, and combined with the very low K rate seems to point to a contact-oriented approach that is sacrificing something in the power department. To this point in his big league career, Butler has been chopping the ball into the dirt regularly:

2006: 46.7 GB%
2007: 48.8 GB%

That 2008 figure was the 10th highest groundball rate among AL batters with at least 450 PA. Putting the ball on the grass that often is an okay strategy if you have ample speed (like Carl Crawford, who ranks directly behind Butler at 48.6%), but it’s certainly not advisable for a plodding DH-type.

While Butler has already shown that he can demolish southpaws (.340/.398/.585), he’s had his fair share of issues with same-side pitching (.256/.304/.345 vs. righties). He also showed a pronounced split in the minors, but that was more the product of his cartoonishly good performance versus lefties (.403/.491/.781 in 278 AB) than any particular difficulties with right-handers (.307/.374/.493 in 992 AB). Expect his numbers versus righties to improve significantly moving forward.

While Butler’s power hasn’t quite translated to the major league level yet, it’s important to remember that he was an absolute hitting machine in the minors, with the strength to drive the ball over the fence and the pure hitting ability to spray line drives all over the field. The Bill James Handbook is a fan, as Butler’s 2009 projection comes in at .295/.357/.460. That’s pretty useful, and as a guy who will just turn 23 in April, Butler has a ton of development time ahead of him. If he sacrifices some of that contact ability in order to put more of a charge into the ball (and lower that groundball rate), Butler could emerge as an elite hitter as soon as this upcoming season.

On the surface, Manny Parra had a decent season for the Brewers in 2008. He posted an okay-but-below-average 4.39 ERA. He racked up 147 strikeouts in 165 innings, but only managed 10 wins and posted a 1.54 WHIP. However, beneath the surface we can see that Parra actually pitched pretty well, and is a good bet to improve in 2009.

First of all, Parra was hindered by some bad luck in 2008. His .337 BABIP was sixth highest among starting pitchers, and his 13.5% HR/FB was higher than league average as well. Both of these numbers figure to regress to the mean in 2009.

Furthermore, Parra showed an above-average ability to induce swinging strikes, an excellent sign for the young southpaw. Batters swung and missed at 9.3% of Parra’s pitches – above league average of 7.8% for starters.

He also induced ground balls on 51.6% of his balls in play, and limited fly balls to only 26.6% of his balls in play. This bodes quite well for him, as ground balls rarely become extra base hits and cannot become homers (plus, they can become double plays). Generally, lots of grounders + lots of strikeouts = lots of success.

Additionally, Parra has a track record of success in the minors. In 2007 he was excellent, accumulating 106 strikeouts and only 33 walks in 106 innings across double- and triple-A. Furthermore, he allowed only three homers in that time.

On the downside, Parra walked far too many hitters – 75, to be precise. He threw 39.3% of his pitches for balls – well above league average of 36.5%. However, given his track record, there is reason to believe that Parra will be able to improve upon this. While he was always somewhat wild in the minors, his career minor league walk rate is “only” 2.45 batters per nine. Furthermore, if Parra is able to throw fewer balls next year, it will also allow him to pitch deeper into games, allowing him more opportunities to strike batters out and pick up wins.

Even if Parra throws fewer balls next year, his relatively high walk total may prevent him from being much of an asset in WHIP. However, he will strike a lot of batters out, and the Brewers figure to give him a decent amount of run support, allowing him to pick up a fair amount of wins.

Parra is exactly the type of pitcher you should be targeting for 2009. He is a good bet for improvement for two reasons: he suffered from bad luck in 2008 – a high HR/FB and a very-high BABIP – so he figures to improve upon his ERA simply due to regression to the mean; and he is also a good bet to improve in his actual skill, due to his track record and age.

A combination of improvement and regression should lead to Manny Parra being a steal in 2009.

Golden Spikes Award winner. Baseball America Minor League Player of the Year. The next George Brett? Without question, expectations are sky high for Royals third baseman Alex Gordon. Selected out of Nebraska with the 2nd overall selection in the 2005 amateur entry draft, Gordon had a brief but spectacular minor league career. He tamed the Texas League (AA) in 2006 while with Wichita:

2006 (AA): 486 AB, .325/.427/.588, 12.9BB%, 23.3K%, .263 ISO

As a 22 year-old, he made mince meat of the league while skipping A-Ball altogether. Gordon displayed plenty of pop and a promising walk rate. His strikeout rate was somewhat high, but it’s difficult to call Gordon’s debut anything other than a rousing success. Following the 2006 season, pundits heaped praise upon the former Cornhusker. In addition to the BA Minor League Player of the Year Award, Gordon was named the second best prospect in the game by the same publication.

Both scouting reports and statistics alike had Gordon pegged for a rookie tour de force, as Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projection system had his worst case batting line at .243/.320/.432. Given his patience and power, Gordon figured to hit the ground running in Kansas City.

While his rookie season was far from a disaster, Gordon’s initial taste of the majors was somewhat disappointing. He didn’t reach that 10th-percentile PECOTA projection:

2007: .247/.314/.411, 7BB%, 25.2K%, .164 ISO, 19.5 LD%, .304 BABIP

The keen batting eye that Gordon displayed at Nebraska and at Wichita didn’t translate as smoothly as expected, and his K rate predictably remained high. The .164 ISO ranked him toward the middle of the pack among third baseman and his line drive rate was solid, though Gordon had a pretty rough go of it versus southpaw pitching (.217/.266/.420).

This past season, Gordon would show a moderate amount of improvement, giving hope that 2009 will be his true breakout campaign:

2008: .260/.351/.432, 11.8 BB%, 24.3K%, .172 ISO, 21 LD%, .314 BABIP

Gordon upped his walk rate nearly five percentage points, while also slightly lowering his strikeout rate. His ISO improved just slightly as well. While the relevance of first half/second half splits can certainly be debated, it seems reasonable to suggest that they might mean more with a young, still-developing player who shows a significant increase in performance. Gordon hit .277/.392/.496 in 167 PA after the All-Star Break before missing time in late August and September with a hip injury. While he hit a robust .273/.370/.491 versus right-handers, lefty pitching continues to be Gordon’s nemesis (.234/.312/.317, 41 K in 187 PA).

While Alex Gordon didn’t get off to the lightning-fast start that was expected of him, it is important to remember that he will just turn 25 years old this offseason, and is coming off of a season in which he showed a solid amount of improvement with the bat. With several years of development time remaining and a broad base of skills with which to work, Gordon looks like a good buy-low candidate.

Jonathan Sanchez misses a LOT of bats.

Unfortunately, sometimes that’s because he throws too many balls. But he also induces a lot of strikeouts. And he’s primed to break out in 2009.

Sanchez had an okay year in 2008, posting a 5.01 ERA. He managed 157 strikeouts in only 158 innings, although this came with 75 walks and 14 homers as well.

However, Sanchez’s ERA is misleading: his 08 campaign was actually pretty good, and, more importantly, there are several signs that his 09 could be a lot better.

First of all, Sanchez was somewhat unlucky to post an ERA over 5 in 2008. His FIP was an impressive 3.85, and his tRA was 4.23 (league average is 4.77). Part of the problem was his BABIP: Sanchez allowed an inordinately high .327 BABIP this season. Additionally, Sanchez gave up an extremely high amount of hits in situations in which they scored the most runs: with runners at first and third, batters were 6-for-15; with runners at second and third, batters were 6-for-13; and with the bases loaded batters were 3-for-10 (with three walks). In those three situations, batters hit a combined .395, leading to an inordinately high number of runners scoring.

Furthermore, of the 14 homers that Sanchez allowed, only six were solo shots – despite the fact that 55% of at bats against Sanchez came with no one on base.

In other words, Sanchez gave up far more hits and homers with runners on base than he “should” have, leading to a disproportionately high number of runners who reached base coming around to score. Sure enough, his 67.5% LOB% provides further evidence of this.

On the bright side, Sanchez struck out almost a batter per inning over 158 innings – not an easy feat. Despite not throwing terribly hard (his fastball averaged 91 MPH), he showed a remarkable ability to induce swings-and-misses – in fact, batters swung and missed at 10.9% of his Sanchez’s pitches, the 9th highest total in baseball. Pitchers who induced higher rates of swings-and-misses were a who’s who of major league baseball’s best pitchers: CC Sabathia, Scott Kazmir, Ryan Dempster, Johan Santana, Cole Hamels, Edinson Volquez, and John Danks. That’s some elite company.

Certainly, Sanchez threw too many balls this year (38.6%, to be exact – league average is 36.5%), and walked too many – 4.27 per nine innings. However, starting pitchers who can get as many swings-and-misses – and, therefore, strikeouts – as Sanchez are few and far between. Sanchez’s ERA was artificially inflated by his inability to “stop the bleeding” this year – a fact that is probably borne from a combination of inexperience and bad luck. Therefore, it’s likely that Sanchez will fare better in “clutch” situations next season, thus lowering his ERA, perhaps considerably. He will almost certainly rack up a lot of strikeouts. And, if he can cut down on his walks – certainly possible – he could lower his ERA even further. However, even if Sanchez walks too many, he’ll more than make up for it with a ton of strikeouts and a respectable ERA.

*Thanks to Stat Corner for providing some of the statistics – specifically, swinging strike % and ball %.

Yovani Gallardo could be one of the biggest breakout starting pitcher candidates for 2009. The right-hander, who will be just 23 on opening day, appeared ready to assume a full-time gig at the beginning of 2008. However, injuries struck and Gallardo started just four games in the regular season for the Milwaukee Brewers. He did, though, make two appearances – including one start – in the 2008 playoffs. In those two games Gallardo allowed just four hits in seven innings of work. His control was shaky as he allowed five walks to go with four strikeouts.

During the regular season, in his four Major League starts, Gallardo allowed 22 hits in 24 innings of work. He walked eight batters and struck out 20. Three of those starts came early in the season before his injury. Only one start came before he made his playoff appearances. In that one start, he allowed one run on three hits and two walks over four innings of work. He also punched out seven. Of his first 15 pitches thrown in his first game back, Gallardo threw 13 fastballs in the 88-92 mph range and mixed in two curveballs. It wasn’t until his eighth batter in the game that the right-hander threw something other than a fastball or a curveball (It was an 85 mph slider).

In his 2007 season, when he made 20 appearance (17 starts) as a rookie, Gallardo allowed 103 hits in 110.1 innings of work. He also posted solid rates of 3.02 BB/9 and 7.50 K/9. Going forward, Gallardo should have no problems duplicating his previous successes. His 2008 injury – a torn ACL – is not likely to have major, long-term affects on his stuff, which includes a low-90s fastball, curveball, slider and change-up.

The fact that Gallardo remained effective in three appearances after missing almost the entire season speaks volumes about his potential and his make-up – especially considering all three were in high-pressure situations. He is probably not ready to assume 200 innings of work in 2009, but Gallardo should be well rested after missing so much time in 2008 (especially after throwing a career-high 188 innings as a 21-year-old in 2007).

Remember when Brandon Wood was a top prospect? Back in 2005, he had a ridiculous 98 extra base hits in the California League, posting a .672 slugging percentage (along with a .323 average and .383 OBP). He added three more extra base hits that season in triple-A, giving him 101 XBHs for the season. Not bad for a 20-year-old shortstop.

In 2006 he hit .276/.355/.552 with 25 homers and 18 steals (and was only caught three times) as a 21-year-old in double-A. Excellent, right? Yet many people chose to focus on his 149 strikeouts in 118 games, and glossed over his otherwise-fantastic season.

Then in 2007 he was promoted to triple-A, where he hit .272/.338/.497 for Salt Lake, a notorious hitter’s park in a notorious hitter’s league. Sure enough, his OPS was 100 points higher at home than on the road. And he struck out 120 times in 111 games. To further complicate things, he struggled mightily in 33 at bats with the big league team, hitting .152/.152/.273 and striking out 12 times.

In 2008 Wood seemingly regained his stroke, posting an impressive .295/.375/.595 line with 31 homers (in just 103 games) in triple-A, although he did strike out 104 times. While his OPS was once again almost 100 points higher at home than on the road, he still managed to post a .913 OPS on the road, and he hit 15 road homers as well.

But he once again disappointed in 150 at bats with at the major league level, hitting .200/.254/.327. However, Wood did stroke five homers and steal four bases, although he also struck out in over 28% of his plate appearances.

There are a few things to keep in mind about Wood. First, and most importantly, he’s only 23 years old. That is still quite young, and there is still plenty of time for him to fix the various flaws in his game.

Secondly, Wood actually had two separate stints with the Angels this season. The first time around, he hit .125/.164/.188 with 1 homer, while striking out in 33% of his plate appearances. The second time, he hit .256/.270/.430 with four homers, while striking out in 25% of his plate appearances. While this isn’t great, it’s a marked improvement.

Finally, Wood was extremely good in triple-A this year. Even though he played in a hitter’s park in a hitter’s league, his Major League Equivalent (MLE) was .235/.316/.436 with 22 homers in 408 at bats. He also stole 6 bases. Obviously, that’s not fantastic, but it’s also not bad, especially for a guy who will qualify at shortstop.

Brandon Wood is still very young, and still has tremendous power potential. He will strike out a lot, and therefore probably won’t hit for a very high batting average. However, he’s likely to qualify at shortstop – and perhaps third base – and should hit a lot of homers – and even steal some bases – if given playing time.

Wood could be an excellent late-round flier, as he has a tremendous amount of upside and will likely be given a chance in the fairly near future.

While it’s unknown whether or not he can raise the dead entity that is the Washington Nationals franchise, this much is certain: outfielder Elijah Dukes is one heck of a baseball player.

A former Tampa Bay (still Devil at that time) Ray and a Tampa native, Dukes was selected by the Rays in the third round of the 2002 amateur entry draft. A breathtaking combination of size (6-1, 240) speed and power, Dukes compiled an impressive minor league resume, batting a combined .280/.369/.448. However, a number of run-ins with members of the organization and the law led the Rays to grow weary of Dukes. Tampa Bay swapped Dukes to the Nationals for minor league lefty Glenn Gibson last winter.

In his first year in D.C., Dukes showed why the Nationals were willing to give him a chance:

276 AB, .264/.386/.478, 15.3BB%, 28.6K%, .214 ISO, 13 HR

Dukes displayed the wide array of skills that made him a top prospect, showing excellent patience and power while also swiping 13 bags. His plate discipline is pretty refined for a guy who’s just 24, as he swung at just 20.34% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone. The strikeout rate was very high and figures to remain so in the future (his contact percentage was 70.38% and his minor league K% was 24.4), but Dukes possesses the secondary skills (walks and power) to compensate for a batting average in the .250-.260 range. Great on-base skills, power and 10-20 steals to boot? That’s a pretty valuable player.

From a pure baseball standpoint, Elijah Dukes is one of the most talented young players in the major leagues. Few possess his blend of power, strike-zone judgment and athleticism. I’m not going to speak on his personal issues, other than to say that he’s had more than a few problems over the years; saying anything more would just be baseless speculation on my part. But if he remains on the field and out of trouble, Dukes has the skills to establish himself as a breakout star in 2009.