With a wrist injury sidelining No. 1 catcher Ryan Doumit for eight to 10 weeks, the backstop duties will fall to a pair of rookies: Jason Jaramillo and Robinzon Diaz. The former Phillies prospect, Jaramillo, will likely see the bulk of playing time early on due to A) The fact he was on the 25-man roster before the injury, B) His defensive reputation, and C) The manager’s familiarity with him from their time in the Phillies system.

However, don’t count out Diaz from wrestling the No. 1 gig away from Jaramillo before the first month is up. Diaz is an absolute freak as a hitter. He’s a classic bad-ball hitter in the same vein as Vlad Guerrero; he’s never met a pitch he couldn’t swing at – and make contact with. His minor league triple-slash line says it all: .304/.340/.391… Great average, few walks, almost no power. During the past three seasons, Diaz’ walk rate has hovered around 4.0 BB% (because he swings at everything) and his strikeout rate has been around 9.0 K% (because he makes contact with almost anything). The walk rate would be a little more worrisome if it were not for his consistent ability to hit .300, which compensates somewhat.

For a catcher, a .300 batting average is pretty impressive (especially if you’re running a fantasy team). Diaz also has the potential to offer some defensive flexibility. In the past, the athletic catcher has seen time at third base and second base. There was even talk of trying him in the outfield. During his prime prospect days in the Jays system, the 25-year-old catcher was 5’11” and 170-180 lbs. Some reports now have Diaz pushing over the 200 lbs mark, which would suggest his days of playing second base might be over, but he could still definitely help out at third, first and possibly a corner outfield spot.

A few years ago, there was a near riot amongst the Jays’ minor league pitching staff that was pitching to Diaz. While conversing a number of times with one specific Jays minor league pitcher, he would speak of what little effort Diaz put into the defensive side of his game – especially his game calling. But that, of course, was just one side of the story. And, to be even more fair, it was three years ago and the scouting reports are more favorable now.

Diaz has made strides in his defensive game. He even threw out about 40 percent of runners trying to steal last season. Both his range and fielding percentages have improved in the past two seasons. His game calling is still not a strong suit, but at least games can be called from the dugout, and he has a good person to learn from in the form of Pirates manager John Russell, a former catcher for parts of 10 MLB seasons. There is also room for improvements on blocking balls and receiving.

I once had a Jays official tell me that Diaz could be as successful in the game as he wanted to be. Translation: He sometimes lacks motivation, and is happy to get by on natural talent more often than not. It’s a lot harder to coast on talent alone in the Majors. There are players who do it, no doubt. But unlike the minors, the media glare is much brighter and the veteran players are vocal in most clubhouses. There are some players, like Hanley Ramirez, that post better numbers in the Majors than they did in the minors, quite possibly for that reason. Diaz could very well turn out to be one of those players if given the opportunity.

The earlier a fantasy owner can pull off a good trade the better, as the longer he will have the undervalued players on his roster. It is not uncommon for leagues to have owners with itchy trigger fingers, so it is never too soon to examine players to acquire or deal. While some owners are more likely to hold on to underperforming veterans, there are just as many who are looking to acquire the next big rookie. So here are five guys to pick up and five players to move.

Acquire

Jimmy Rollins – A notoriously streaky hitter, Rollins is hitting just .121 with no HR and no SB in seven games. He does not have to be 2007 MVP good to justify giving up something worthwhile to acquire him when his value may be down.

Chris Davis – Everyone’s favorite sleeper during mock draft season, Davis has a .154 average with one HR. He has hit in every stop along the way to the majors and is still the same guy who hit .285 in Texas last year. Davis will not have a 42 percent K rate all year.

Dustin Pedroia – He has just a .179 average thanks to a .160 BABIP. Three of his five hits have gone for extra bases and he has three walks compared to two strikeouts.

Gil Meche – An undervalued pitcher to begin with, Meche is winless in his first two starts. But 12 strikeouts in 14 IP with a 6:1 SO/BB ratio is indicative of how well he has pitched. And Meche’s two starts were in Chicago and versus the Yankees, so a 3.12 ERA is very good.

Dan Haren – After a 16-win season in 2008, Haren opened 2009 with an 0-2 mark. All of his other numbers are good so owners will likely be hesitant to give him up, but it may be possible to find someone who drafted him high based on other’s assessments of him who may be having doubts.

Dump

Emilio Bonifacio – Yeah, it is fun having him on your team only to say his name but his value will never be higher. And despite his current .714 SLG he is not going to hit for power and he will have to hit better than the .268 that his top pre-season projection had him going for to be a worthwhile fantasy player.

Kyle Lohse – A perfect 2-0 record with a 0.56 WHIP has been posted versus Houston and Pittsburgh, contenders for worst teams in baseball. Also, both of these games came at home, where Lohse was 8-2 with an ERA over a full run lower than it was on the road in 2008.

Adam Lind – The main problem with Lind is that he has no plate discipline. And even in this great hot streak to start the season, he has six strikeouts and one walk in 35 at-bats. Trade him while those 12 RBIs are among the league leaders.

Nyjer Morgan – No one doubts the SB potential but at the same time, no one doubts the complete lack of power, either. Morgan needs to get on base more and he still shows no propensity to take a walk. While he’s likely to post a high BABIP it simply will not be of the .444 variety where it currently stands.

Joe Saunders – Last year Saunders surprised everyone by posting 17 wins. But he had a FIP nearly a full run higher than his ERA, the fourth-worst mark in the majors. So far he has a win and a 2.63 ERA in two starts, but his FIP is more than two runs higher and his strikeout and walk numbers are still nothing to write home about.

For a southpaw with plus velocity who won’t turn 28 until April, Rockies hurler Jorge de la Rosa has experienced quite the nomadic career. Originally signed out of Mexico by the Arizona Diamondbacks all the way back in 1998, de la Rosa has since passed through Boston, Milwaukee, Kansas City and Colorado, and has been involved in four trades. Within one week in the fall of 2003, de la Rosa was shipped from Boston back to Arizona in the Curt Schilling trade, only to be sent packing to the Brewers in the 9-player Richie Sexson swap. Jorge was part of a July 2006 deal that sent him to Kansas City for Tony Graffanino, and was bartered yet again in April of ’08, this time heading to the inhospitable environs of Coors Field.

The main culprit for the 6-1, 210 pounder’s game of roster hot-potato has been his control. Despite pumping gas in the low 90’s and complementing the heat with three other offerings, de la Rosa has walked nearly five batters per nine innings (4.92 BB/9) in the big leagues, a continuation of his work in the minors (3.64 BB/9). de la Rosa’s strike zone issues have left him fighting to stay in one place for more than a season or two, as he has compiled a career 4.86 FIP.

2008, however, brought with it legitimate progress. de la Rosa made 23 starts and tossed 130 innings both in ’07 with the Royals and ’08 with the Rockies, and the results this past season were far more promising. The Monterrey native posted mild peripherals with Kansas City, with 5.68 K/9, 3.67 BB/9 and a 5.27 FIP. In 2008, de la Rosa upped his strikeout rate considerably, punching out 8.86 batters per nine innings. His control still came and went (4.29 BB/9), but the end result was a sturdy-looking 4.06 FIP.

de la Rosa added a tick to his fastball this past year, throwing his heat at an average of 92.8 MPH (91.4 MPH in ’07). In addition, he started throwing his slider a good deal more, using the 84 MPH breaker 16.1% of the time in ’08 after snapping off a slide-piece just 6.4% in 2007. Armed with a solid fastball, a sharp slider, a slow 73 MPH curve (9.3%) and an 83.5 MPH changeup (18%), Jorge improved his Outside-Swing and Contact rates considerably.

After garnering an O-Swing% of just 20.3% with the Royals in 2007, de la Rosa got batters to fish out of the strike zone 25.6% with Colorado in ’08, slightly above the major league average. To boot, his Contact% fell from 82.1% in ’07 down to 76.4% in ’08. That was the 10th-lowest contact rate among pitchers tossing at least 130 frames, sandwiched between A.J. Burnett and Jake Peavy.

Burned by the home run in the past, de la Rosa modestly upped his groundball percentage from 40.6% to 45.7% this past season. The extra worm-burners, coupled with the K’s, were enough to qualify de la Rosa for Rich Lederer’s list of starters posting the best combination of groundball and strikeout rates over at The Baseball Analysts. Not surprisingly, the group of starters keeping the ball on the ground and missing bats were the most successful of the four types of pitchers studied (high K and GB rates, high K and low GB rates, low K and high GB rates and low K and low GB rates). Said Lederer:

“I am intrigued by de la Rosa, who was 5-2 with a 2.45 ERA and compelling peripheral stats in August and September, a period covering 11 games and nine starts (including five at Coors Field) and 58.2 innings.”

With the health status of Jeff Francis (shoulder) very much in doubt, de la Rosa figures to capture one of Colorado’s rotation spots. Keep a close eye on Jorge this spring- he could finally make good on the promise he has only hinted at to this point in his career.

It isn’t a huge transaction; it probably went by largely unnoticed. The Toronto Blue Jays claimed middle reliever T.J. Beam off waivers from the Pirates yesterday and designated former No. 1 draft pick Russ Adams for assignment.

Adams was originally drafted by the Jays in 2002, which was also the first draft by the organization while under control of current general manager J.P. Ricciardi, who was hired – in part – for his reputation as an excellent talent evaluator. He is also known in some circles for having a rather large ego, so it’s not surprising that the organization actually held on to Adams much longer than it should have.

Adams had a solid career at the University of North Carolina and looked like a scrappy player who would hit for average and steal a ton of bases. Unfortunately, steals were not a part of the Jays’ offensive approach at the time so that aspect of his game was almost immediately snuffed out. In his final college season, Adams hit .370 and stole 45 bases in just 63 games. He also walked 52 times with 19 strikeouts.

In his first taste of pro ball, Adams stole 18 bases and walked 42 times in 67 games between short-season ball and High-A. By 2004 he had received a brief call-up to the Majors and hit .304. Adams then spent all of 2005 at shortstop for the Jays and hit .256/.325/.383. He stole just 11 bases and his defense was shaky, due to a weak throwing arm.

During the course of the next two seasons, Adams struggled with his defence and was bounced around the diamond. His batting also suffered, no doubt in part due to his problems in the field. In 2008, he did not even sniff the Majors. Adams was left to rot in Triple-A and he played a variety of positions, including the outfield. He did not set the world on fire with his bat, but he hit .259/.341/.417 with 11 stolen bases and showed a little more pop than he had in the past with 15 home runs. In the last two seasons, his ISO has hovered around .150, which isn’t too bad for a middle infielder.

Adams needs a change of scenery. He was designated for assignment, which means if he clears waivers, Adams will remain in the system if the Jays don’t release or trade him. For his sake, and for Fantasy owners, I hope he does find his way to another organization that will give him a shot as a second baseman or a utility player. Adams could be a nice sleeper source of steals (finally free from the Toronto Stop Signs) and could even provide a little power in single leagues. His average could rebound too, with the change of scenery and outlook; his strikeouts have risen a bit with the increase in power, but he still had a walk rate of 11.2 BB% in 2008.

Obviously, you don’t want to take Adams on Draft Day. But tuck his name away and monitor the situation. If he ends up somewhere like San Diego that will give him a fair shot – and let him run – then Adams could end helping you at some point during the 2009 Fantasy Season.

With spring training almost here, it also means that Fantasy Baseball season is heating up. If you’re looking for some great advice throughout the season (as well as the pre-season), be sure to check out John Burnson’s Heater Magazine, which provides weekly statistical analysis from some of the smartest minds from across the Internet. The magazine is introducing a new, weekly feature this spring called Radar Tracking, which helps track each team’s moves and ever-changing rosters and player roles to help you prepare for the 2009 Fantasy Baseball season. Each team is being analyzed by writers and bloggers who regularly follow the clubs – quite a few FanGraphs writers have contributed to John’s projects lately. Here is a sneak peek at some of the first week’s Radar Tracking.

Shin-Soo Choo, once a top prospect for the Mariners, received the most playing time of his major league career for the Indians last year. In his first year back after having Tommy John surgery, he set the record for most hits in a season by a Korean-born player. Choo’s 98 hits eclipsed the mark of 86 set by Hee Seop Choi in 2004.

The knock on Choo is that he is a platoon player or fourth outfielder. But in 2008, the lefty hitting Choo posted a .286/.345/.455 line versus southpaws, albeit in 84 plate appearances. But considering how well he hits righties (.317/.413/.579 last year), Choo apparently has earned a full-time starting job as Spring Training approaches.

Grady Sizemore is a fixture in center for Cleveland and he will be flanked by Choo and Ben Francisco. But the big unknown is Matt LaPorta, the key player received by the Tribe in the C.C. Sabathia deal last summer. LaPorta was enjoying a standout season before suffering a concussion in the Olympics. He will most likely start the season in the minors but it would be no surprise if LaPorta was in the majors before September, with the big question of if he will be an outfielder or a first baseman.

Choo had a .373 BABIP last season, which would have tied for third in the majors if he had enough at-bats to qualify. But as fantastic as that was, it was in line with what he had done in previous stints in the majors. His lifetime mark in the category now sits at .369 in 509 at-bats.

While Choo may or may not be able to sustain a high BABIP the big question is what can we expect from him in the power department. Last year’s .240 ISO mark was well beyond anything he had posted previously, either in the majors or the minors. But a significant portion of that was from doubles, as he smacked 28 two-baggers in 317 at-bats.

Some might be concerned about his 16.1 percent HR/FB mark last year, but in the only other season in the majors where he had sizable playing time, Choo posted a 14.3 percent HR/FB mark.

Assuming Choo holds down a full-time job for the year, he could post a .290 average along with 15-20 HRs and 8-10 steals, too. If he was a first baseman, we might call him Derrek Lee. And for a guy who goes undrafted in many early mocks, that’s great production. Make sure to have Choo on your list of players to target in the late rounds of your draft.

Last season began well enough for Aaron Harang.

In fact, through his first 11 starts, he was having a normal, Harang-like season. Check it out:

Harang had a 3.50 ERA, more or less what we’d expect given those peripherals. But then, Dusty Baker made an interesting decision.

On May 22, Aaron Harang made a start on normal rest. Then, on May 25, Baker brought Harang into a tie game in the 13th inning. Harang proceeded to pitch 4 shutout innings, striking out 9 and throwing 63 pitches in the process. Harang’s next start was on May 29.

Starting pitchers have been known to pitch an inning out of the bullpen between starts, but Harang threw 63 pitches – in a tie game, no less. Of course, Harang has had a rubber arm over the last couple of seasons, having pitched over 200 innings in three straight years. If anyone could handle the added workload, it would be Harang, right?

Apparently not.

After the bullpen appearance, Harang had a 7.31 in his next eight starts. Here are his accompanying peripherals:

His strikeout rate was approximately the same, but he walked one more batter per nine innings. His homer rate also skyrocketed. The question is: was Harang unlucky – thanks to a very-high BABIP and homer rate – or was he hurt?

Well, Harang was placed on the DL on July 9 with a strained right forearm. He was then activated on August 10. However, he struggled mightily in his first two starts, giving up a total of 16 runs in 7 1/3 innings. After that, though, Harang seemed to regain his past form. Check it out:

He posted a 2.83 ERA over these eight starts.

So what does it all mean? Well…

On the one hand, Harang’s peripherals didn’t really change too much throughout the season, even after his bullpen stint. His walk rate rose, and it’s very possible that fatigue caused him to lose control of his pitches. However, his strikeout rate remained high, and it’s possible that his high BABIP and high homer rate could be more attributed to bad luck in a small sample size rather than anything else.

On the other hand, it’s difficult to ignore the fact that Harang’s ERA changed drastically directly after his outing in the bullpen. If he did indeed lose control of his pitches (as evidenced by the higher walk rate), it’s not difficult to surmise that he was also grooving an inordinate amount of pitches, leading to a higher BABIP and higher homer rate.

After he returned from the DL, his first two starts were awful, but this can be very easily be attributed to the fact that he wasn’t yet fully healthy. In his final eight starts, Harang more-or-less returned to “normal” form. His BABIP was actually a little low, and his strikeout rate was lower than before. Again, it’s difficult to tell whether this is significant or the product of a small sample size.

If I had to guess, I’d say that the bullpen stint somehow screwed Harang up. It’s very possible that his 7.31 ERA was inflated partly due to bad luck, but it’s also clear that Harang was not as good of a pitcher after the bullpen outing as he was beforehand. It’s also clear that Harang was pretty much back to “normal” after returning from the DL (well, after his first two starts). This is further evidence for Harang actually being injured.

For next year, it’s fair to expect Harang to return to his normal numbers – his numbers before 2008. That means that he has the potential to be very undervalued going into drafts next year. There is, of course, a caveat: namely, the possibility that Harang is not fully healthy. This seems unlikely, however, given his performance over the final eight starts of the season.

Aaron Harang plays for a mediocre team, in front of a poor defense, in a hitter’s park. However, he is also a very good pitcher who is likely to put up numbers that are much better than his 2008 line. It’s reasonable to expect an ERA between 3.50 and 4, and a strikeout rate somewhere around 8 batters per nine. Harang is probably going to be undervalued in your league, and is an excellent sleeper.

Remember when Paul Konerko was an elite hitter? It wasn’t that long ago that the White Sox first baseman hit .313/.381/.551 with 35 homers. In fact, Konerko posted that line in 2006, after eclipsing the 40 homer mark in both 2004 and 2005.

Of course, one the tenets of baseball analysis is that hitters – especially one dimensional sluggers, tend to age rather rapidly. However, Konerko is only going to be 33 years old, and has shown signs that he may not have run out of steam entirely.

Last season, Konerko had a rather mediocre line of .240/.344/.438 with 22 homers in 122 games. However, as we will see, Konerko was struck with a bout of bad luck, and also showed significant signs of life towards the end of the season.

The first thing to note about Konerko’s 2008 was his poor luck with balls in play. His BABIP was a mere .247, much lower than his career average of .285. His line drive percentage remained high, at 21.5%, right in line with his career LD% of 21.4%. Furthermore, he struck out at the same rate as he has over the last five seasons (he struck out in 18.3% of his at bats in 2008 – his K rate has remained between 18% and 19% every year dating back to 2004), and he actually had the highest walk rate of his career as well.

According to the BABIP model I introduced with Chris Dutton, Konerko’s expected BABIP was .280 this year (incidentally, Konerko is a good example of a player for whom the “old” model of predicting BABIP – namely, adding .120 to line drive percentage – is a poor indicator of true BABIP, as our “new” model has consistently predicted Konerko’s BABIP to be far lower than the “old” model). The 15% difference between Konerko’s actual BABIP and his expected BABIP was the 14th biggest difference among all full-time players in 2008 – in other words, Konerko was extremely unlucky on balls in play.

Furthermore, Konerko’s 2008 was plagued with injury woes. Konerko strained his oblique and was put on the disabled list in June – he was hitting a paltry .215/.325/.368 with 8 homers at the time, so it’s very possible that Konerko tried to play through the injury before finally being placed on the DL (in fact, in the 30 games prior to the DL, Konerko hit only .202/.281/.330).

After coming back from the injury on July 8, Konerko hit like himself again. In the final 60 games of the season, Konerko posted a line of .267/.366/.514 with 14 homers – while striking out 37 times and drawing 30 walks. He suffered a sprained knee in September but managed to play well despite it; both the knee and oblique should be fully healthy in 2009.

At age 33, Konerko will remain an injury risk, and likely will not be able to perform at the same level that he did in his peak. However, rumors of his demise are greatly exaggerated. Konerko suffered from a tremendous amount of bad luck on balls in play that should regress next season, thus raising hit batting average.

Furthermore, although he may not hit 40 homers, he still has enough power to hit 30-35 bombs, and will be helped (as always) by the fly-ball-friendly confines of US Cellular Field. As Konerko demonstrated in the last three months of 2009, when healthy he can still be an offensive force. And he can probably be had relatively late in most drafts, as less-astute owners will assume that he’s washed up.

Paul Konerko is an excellent sleeper for fantasy baseball in 2009.

Before your draft, you should understand what players you think are going to be undervalued by others. These are the guys you want to target. For example, if you think Jonathan Sanchez is going to be valued as approximately an 11th round pick*, and you think his talent is worthy of a 7th round pick, it’d be a mistake to draft him in the 7th round. Most likely, no one else is going to be thinking about taking him for another three or four rounds. Therefore, to get the most value out of Sanchez, you should take him in the 10th round (or 9th, if you’re worried). By doing this, you are in essence getting two 7th round picks – the one you actually choose in the 7th round, and Sanchez, who you believe was worthy of a 7th-rounder but you didn’t take until the 10th round.

This strategy also works particularly well for position players, although it’s a little more complicated. Let’s say that you think Rickie Weeks is going to be undervalued, and you’d be perfectly fine with having him as your starting second baseman. Let’s also say that for your first round pick, you are debating between Chase Utley and Jose Reyes. Who should you take? There’s not a huge difference between Utley and Reyes in overall value. But you think that Weeks is going to be undervalued, and that you can “steal” him very late in the draft. If that’s the case, it makes sense to draft Reyes in the first round, rather than Utley. If you drafted Utley, you’d be getting a fantastic player, but you’d also be negating a competitive advantage – namely, your belief in Rickie Weeks being undervalued. By drafting Reyes and saving second base for Weeks later in the draft, you have extracted maximum value.

This strategy is not without risks – it only takes one other person to value Weeks as highly as you for him to be snatched from under your fingertips. Thus, you need a backup plan, a “worst case scenario” plan. If you lose Weeks in the 12th round, are there any other second baseman who are going to be available that late that you think are somewhat undervalued? If so, then they are your backup plan. Or perhaps you’re willing to “punt” second base, and essentially hope to trade for someone or find someone on the waiver wire.

If you can’t possibly think of a backup plan, then you need to be wary of putting all of your eggs in Weeks’s basket. Yes, he may be undervalued, but if you miss out on him your team may be in deep trouble. This is something to keep in mind when thinking about sleepers. However, it’s very rare that your team won’t be able to overcome something like missing out on Rickie Weeks. The advantage of getting a player who is much better than where he is drafted almost always outweighs the risk of missing out on that player and ending up with a scrub instead.

*Note: I am not necessarily endorsing Sanchez as an 11th round pick, or a 7th round pick. I am merely using Sanchez and these numbers as an example, to demonstrate a point.

It seems like Lastings Milledge has been around forever, but in fact the Nationals outfielder is only 23 years old, and may be on the cusp of breaking out.

Milledge hit an underwhelming .268/.330/.402 in a 138 games this year, with 14 homers and 24 steals (in 33 attempts). He also struck out 18.4% of the time and walked only 6.8% of the time. However, Milledge appears to have improved during the season. On July 31, Milledge was hitting only .237/.300/.351 with 7 homers and 13 steals. However, from August 1 on, Milledge hit an impressive .318/.378/.485 with 7 homers and 11 steals in only 52 games.

Of course, it is certainly possible that Milledge’s impressive August and September can be attributed to a small sample size fluke. But it is also possible that Milledge has begun to refine his game. Many people forget about how young Lastings is – most 23 year olds are not playing every day in the majors. Milledge’s minor league numbers suggest that he could be successful in the majors, and that he could develop power to go along with his speed.

Next season, Milledge will once again be a starting outfielder for the Nationals. It will be interesting to see if he can build on his excellent finish to the 2008 campaign, but Milledge may be a guy worth taking a risk on for your fantasy team. The upside is enormous, as Lastings has the chance to post an excellent batting average, steal somewhere around 25-35 bases, and even hit 20+ homers. There is a lot of risk involved, as Milledge stunk for the majority of the 2008 season. However, few young players have the fantasy potential of Milledge, making that risk easier to stomach.

You shouldn’t be relying on Milledge for guaranteed production, but he’d make an excellent late-round flier thanks to his large amount of upside.

The Rays cashed in some of their starting pitching depth by trading Edwin Jackson to the Tigers in exchange for Matt Joyce. What can we expect from Joyce in 2009?

It looks as if Joyce will be the primary right fielder for the Rays in 2009. And if there’s one thing that Joyce has consistently shown throughout his career, it’s that he can rake against righties.

Joyce hit .252/.339/.492 in 277 plate appearances with the Tigers this year – including a .255/.333/.509 line against righties. His splits in the minors are even more dramatic: this season Joyce hit .270/.352/.550 in triple-A, but crushed righties to the tune of .286/.366/.610. These trends are visible throughout Joyce’s minor league career, except for his stint in double-A, where he hit lefties and righties approximately equally.

Joyce has shown the propensity to strike out quite often in his career, and looks like he may be a “Three True Outcome” player – although probably not to the same extent as someone like Adam Dunn. However, it’s unlikely that Joyce will hit for a particularly high batting average, even though his BABIP in the majors (.293) was lower than his BABIP in the minors from this year (.328) or last year (.319). Marcel projects his batting average to be .266, which seems reasonable, if a touch optimistic.

Joyce’s power, however, seems to be real. He hits a lot of fly balls – 47.5% of his balls in play were fly balls this year – and appears to be strong enough to muscle a lot of them out of the park. In fact, 14.1% of Joyce’s fly balls left the park this year, and he hit 25 homers in only 442 at bats between triple-A and the majors.

The Rays are certainly aware of Joyce’s limitations against lefties, and are likely to pair him with another outfielder who can hit lefties better. Therefore, Joyce is unlikely to be an everyday player; however, that doesn’t mean he’s not valuable. This year he crushed 25 homers despite getting less than 500 at bats – there’s no reason why he can’t homer at that pace again next year. Joyce will be particularly valuable in leagues with daily updates, since you can bench him whenever the Rays face a lefty. However, Joyce will still be very valuable in weekly update leagues as well, since when he does face righties he’s likely to be very, very good.

Matt Joyce is probably not a top tier fantasy outfielder, thanks to his struggles against left handed pitching. However, there are far more righties than lefties out there for him to face, and Joyce should mash against righties, and could supply 25-30 homers even if he’s platooned, thus making him a very valuable commodity late in drafts.