While going through looking at DL information, I have seen some pretty decent players available. Here is a list of hitters that are less than 50%, 40%, 30%, 20% and 10% owned in Yahoo leagues.

<50% Owned: Chris Davis (47% owned) – I know Chris disappointed last season, mainly with his 0.238 batting average. His 21 home runs in 391 ABs was not horrible. Looking at his 2010 projections, they have him hitting anywhere from 0.251 to 0.285 with 21 to 30 home runs. There is a chance that he will produce in 2010 as did in 2009, but there is also a chance that he will hit 0.285 like in 2008. He is definitely worth adding to the bench and being qualified at 1B and 3B is also attractive.

< 40% Owned: David DeJesus (37% owned) – The main problem with David is he can't do any one thing good enough to get noticed. He is the epitome of the average player. Sometimes that is all you need on a team. He will hit for OK average while subbing in for players on the DL or days off. He is a nice pick up for teams ahead that can't take a chance on a player that may drag them down.

< 30% Owned: Nick Johnson (23% owned) –Nick’s real value is in his ability to take a base. In leagues with OBP as a stat, he is nice pick up. If you can handle the low batting average, he is a nice pickup in AL only or deeper leagues.

<20% Owned: Chris Iannetta (15% owned) – Chris was really supposed to break out in 2009, but disappointed. His main draw back, for a catcher, was his 0.228 batting average. I really wouldn't want to be starting him everyday, but he will make a great fill in for the days your main catcher has off.

<10% Owned: Conor Jackson (11% owned) – I have to break my rules here, but Connor was the inspiration for this article. I was looking for 1st base replacements and I saw he was at 9% owned (since has jump a bit) and I could not believe it. Last season he had Valley Fever (a 6 to 9 month cold). His skills should be near his previous levels of 0.300 BA, 10-15 Hrs, 10SB (5 in 30 games last year). With his 1B and OF eligibility, he will make a great bench sub or a starter in a deeper league.

After missing the entire 2009 season due to surgery on a torn labrum, Rockies pitcher Jeff Francis is back pitching and is in the running for the fifth starter’s job. Saturday’s outing was rough (4 IP, 6 R, 6 H) but should not detract from the fact that if he does make the rotation, Francis is an excellent $1 pitcher in NL-only leagues.

Before the injury, Francis was on his way to becoming one of the top young pitchers in the game. Over the 2006-07 seasons, he had 30 W, a 4.19 ERA and a 1.335 WHIP in his age 25 and 26 seasons. While he did not rack up strikeouts (282 in 414.1 IP), his K/9 went from 5.3 in 2006 to 6.9 in 2007 and he had a 2.62 K/BB ratio in the latter year.

Francis did this without overpowering stuff. His fastball averaged in the mid-80s over these two seasons and was actually a negative pitch in 2007. But he succeeded thanks to an extremely effective changeup. At 11.9 runs above average, Francis’ change was the seventh-best one in MLB in 2007. He also mixed in a curve ball, which was an average offering.

In 2008, Francis struggled right off the bat. He finally went on the disabled list at the end of June with shoulder inflammation and missed five weeks. After getting roughed up again in his first outing after being activated, Francis reeled off six strong starts (2.82 ERA, 24 Ks, 9 BB, 38.1 IP) before being shut down for good after September 12th. In February of 2009, he underwent arthroscopic surgery and missed the regular season.

Flash forward to 2010 and Francis has made four starts in the Cactus League. He is still a work in progress and the velocity on his fastball has not been consistent. Overall Francis has 13 IP, 16 H, 10 ER, 5 BB and 9 Ks. Francis needs the separation between his fastball and changeup to be significant in order for the latter pitch to succeed. He still has two more starts left this Spring to iron things out. However, as the team’s fifth starter, Francis would not pitch the early part of April and could have additional time in Arizona to refine his stuff.

In the end game, you want to take pitchers with both upside and a good shot at a starting spot. We know that Francis has significant upside, based upon what he has already done in the majors. And he should be the team’s fifth starter if he is healthy. Francis is battling journeymen Tim Redding and Gregory Smith for the final rotation slot and should be an easy choice if his shoulder is sound.

So, if you have time before your auction or draft, monitor Francis’ final two outings. Better results than his last performance would be nice, but the real key is that he logs innings and does not suffer any setbacks. If both of those things are true, Francis should be a prime target to fill out the back of your staff.

The Florida Marlins figure to have a fantastic one-two punch at the top of the rotation this season, with Josh Johnson (inked to a four-year, $39 million deal during the off-season) followed by Ricky Nolasco, whose 2009 xFIP was 1.8 runs lower than his ERA. Anibal Sanchez, assuming his shoulder doesn’t start shooting flames, looks to be the third man. After that, things get a little..fishy (sorry).

Chris Volstad, Rick VandenHurk, Andrew Miller, Clay Hensley and Hayden Penn are all looking to earn a spot at the back of Florida’s rotation.

Volstad, 23, was the 16th overall pick in the 2005 draft. The 6-8 right-hander didn’t post huge whiff totals in the minors (6.3 K/9), but his low-90’s fastball, high-70’s curve and low-80’s changeup generated grounders at a 57.4 percent clip and he displayed plus control with just 2.4 BB/9.

Over the last two years in the big leagues, Volstad has posted rates of 5.88 K/9 and 3.51 BB/9, with a 4.43 xFIP. Volstad remains a groundball-oriented hurler, with a 50.9 GB% in the majors. His hook (+0.86 runs per 100 pitches for the curve) and changeup (+0.73) have been effective, but that fastball has been smacked for a -0.55 runs/100 value.

Volstad’s upside doesn’t appear enormous, but he’s a good bet to bounce back in 2010. His ERA was 5.21 in 2009, compared to a 4.35 xFIP. The reason? Nearly 18 percent of fly balls hit against Volstad left the yard last year, by far the highest rate among starters with 150+ innings pitched. If that number regresses back to the 10-12 percent range, then Volstad’s ERA should dip to mid-fours.

A 24 year-old Dutchman, VandenHurk has been Marlins property since 2002. The 6-5 righty features low-90’s Gouda and a hard slider, which has helped him punch out a batter per inning on the farm, with 3.8 BB/9.

Sadly, VandenHurk is often hurt. He had Tommy John surgery in 2005. More recently, he was shelved in both ’08 and ’09 with elbow ailments. VandenHurk has never come close to a full starter’s workload: his 121.2 IP last season between Florida and the minors was a career high.

In 2009, he had 7.69 K/9, 2.41 BB/9 and a 3.05 FIP in 59.2 innings at the Triple-A level, and 7.52 K/9, 3.22 BB/9 and a 4.78 xFIP in the majors. VandenHurk will miss bats, but health, control issues and extreme fly ball tendencies (27.6 GB% in the majors) make him unreliable. CHONE predicts a 4.66 FIP next year, with 8.54 K/9, 4 BB/9 and 1.38 dingers per nine innings.

R.J. Anderson covered Miller’s journey from highly-touted Tar Heel and Tiger to aggravating underachiever. The lefty is still just 24, and his career xFIP in the majors (4.70) is considerably lower than his ERA (5.50). Even so, scouts expected much more than mediocrity from the 6th pick in the 2006 draft.

First, the good: Miller has 7.22 K/9 in the major leagues, and he keeps the ball on the ground, too (48.1 GB%). The bad is, well, everything else.

Miller has generously handed out 5.09 walks per nine innings, tossing a first pitch strike just 52.1 percent of the time (58 percent MLB average). Batters aren’t chasing his low-90’s fastball, slurvy upper-70’s breaking ball or low-80’s changeup out of the zone (20.6 outside swing%, compared to the 25% MLB average).

When the 6-7 southpaw isn’t getting behind in the count, he’s hurt: he hit the DL in 2008 with a right knee injury and missed time last year with oblique and right ankle problems (injury info from the Fantasy Pitch F/X DL Tool).

As R.J. suggested, Miller might be best served by going to Triple-A and working out the kinks. He logged just 131 innings in the minors. CHONE still sees Miller through powder blue-colored glasses though, forecasting a 4.30 FIP, 7.62 K/9 and 4.79 BB/9 in 2010.

Hensley, 30, posted a 2.1 WAR season with the Padres back in 2006. The next few years wouldn’t be nearly as kind. Hampered by a shoulder injury (requiring labrum surgery after the ’07 campaign), Hensley was smacked around in the majors and became known as “the dude who gave up Barry Bonds’s 755th home run.”

The former Giants prospect briefly passed through Houston’s minor league system last year and then latched on with Florida. In 114 innings with the Zephyrs, Hensley had a 3.73 FIP, 6.47 K/9 and 3 BB/9.

Hensley’s something of a slop-ball pitcher, featuring a fastball that might crack 90 on a good day, a low-80’s slider, a mid-70’s curve and a low-80’s changeup. He’s not a great source of strikeouts, and he doesn’t have the sort of control that one usually associates with a finesse type. However, he does keep the ball on the ground. CHONE calls for a 4.79 FIP next year, with 6.3 K/9 and 4.5 BB/9.

Like his fellow competitors, Penn is no stranger to strains surgical scars. The former Orioles prospect has a promising minor league dossier. But you name it, and Penn has hurt it: surgery to remove his appendix in 2006, elbow surgery in 2007 and shoulder soreness in 2008. The 25 year-old righty is projected to post a 5.04 FIP next year, with 7.53 K/9 and 4.3 BB/9.

Volstad, VandenHurk and Miller remain mildly interesting fantasy options, though none should be on draft boards in mixed leagues.

Brad Bergesen’s player profile here at FanGraphs has been playing mind games with me for a few days. Simply put, it’s tough to get a good handle on what to expect from this guy. I really do enjoy writing with conviction and drawing strong conclusions based on the data that is available here and at many other great baseball sites online. I believe in what I write and for many reasons.

But Bergesen is different. Rather than picking a side and determining if he can be successful or unsuccessful because of reasons X, Y, and Z there are good reasons on both sides of the ledger when it comes to Brad Bergesen. The former fourth round pick is coming off of a nice rookie year where he posted a 3.43 ERA in 19 starts before succumbing to a leg injury after taking a line drive off his shin on July 30. His peripherals tell another story…he had a 4.10 FIP and 4.42 xFIP.

xFIP is likely selling him short because his home run rate is being normalized. I personally don’t think that’s fair because Bergesen’s a sinker ball pitcher and has always prevented the long ball at each level of professional baseball save for a 17 inning High-A stint in 2008.

Bergesen is not a strikeout pitcher by any means but his minor league numbers may suggest that we could see a small uptick in strikeouts next season from his meager 4.74 strikeout rate. He’s always had plus-control and showed that skill last year in the big leagues. And then there’s his impressive 50% ground ball rate in 2009 which agrees with his minor league rates. Steady defenders Cesar Izturis, Brian Roberts, and Adam Jones up the middle of the diamond figure to assist Bergesen and his ground ball tendencies. His BABIP and left-on-base rates also check out quite normally.

There’s reason to believe that Bergesen could be a serviceable contributor towards the back end of your fantasy team’s rotation due to his plus-control, sinking fastball, home run suppression, and strong defense surrounding him. He has the makings to become a better version of beltway foe and Washington National, John Lannan. That’s all the good stuff.

When we shift to the other side of the ledger we see Bergesen’s very low and alarming strikeout rate in the big leagues accompanied with his fringey fastball velocity. And one has to wonder whether he can maintain a home run rate around 0.80. Even if that rate creeps up closer to the league average of 1.05 his numbers are going to suffer (as xFIP shows).

His plate discipline stats here show that he wasn’t fooling many major league hitters last year. Batters made contact with his pitches at a very above-average clip last season.

It’s going to be awfully interesting to see what Bergesen does this season and pitching in the AL East against superior opponents will not make his job any easier. As I’ve combed through above…he has his own set of pros and cons. After recovering from the freak leg injury he suffered a strange and funny injury over the winter but looks to be on schedule and should be a part of the Orioles rotation come opening day.

Perhaps we’ll be able to say a lot more about Bergesen next winter if he completes his first full season in the majors this year. This could all have boiled down to simply needing more data but for fantasy purposes we should be focusing most on what he can bring to the table this season. If Bergesen takes a few chinks in the armor this season (HR/9 or worse batted ball stats) then he will likely become a negligible pitcher in fantasy baseball.

But if he maintains a similar profile to last year then he’s certainly a serviceable pitcher (and much more valuable in real-life) at the back of your rotation and even more valuable in deeper leagues. I think the ball could fall on either side and it’ll be interesting to check back on The Bergesen Case next year. Nonetheless Bergesen is quite a fascinating pitcher and he’s likely to be found loitering on the waiver wire.

By the time a top prospect graces a major league field, avid fans can recite just about any detail regarding that player. Height, weight, round drafted (or country signed from), minor league stats, scouting reports, what he likes to eat for lunch..you name it, and it’s known.

With fantasy players going to CIA-like lengths to get the scoop, looking to identify The Next Big Thing before anyone else, expectations for those prospects soar. Sometimes, those players scuffle at first, get hurt or don’t get an opportunity to play every day. They fade from a person’s consciousness, as attention is turned to the next crop of “can’t miss” youngsters.

Today, I’d like to turn your attention back toward some names that everyone swooned over a few years back, but have yet to reach their potential for one reason or another. Here’s the Fallen Prospect Lineup, with CHONE projections for the 2010 season included.

Catcher

J.R. Towles, Astros

CHONE: .252/.332/.409, .326 wOBA

Towles’ minor league track record suggests that he could be better than the average backstop with the bat, but a string of injuries, an ugly line in a small amount of big league playing time (largely the product of a .218 BABIP) and the presence of 2008 first-rounder Jason Castro have torpedoed his status within the organization. It’s difficult to find a guy capable of league-average offense at catcher, so the 26 year-old shouldn’t be written off just yet.

First Base

Jeff Clement, Pirates

CHONE:.264/.342/.460, .350 wOBA

Formerly a catcher, Clement was viewed as a franchise-type player when the Mariners selected him with the third pick in the 2005 draft. However, knee injuries and spotty receiving skills caused him to fall down the defensive spectrum. Now that he’s apparently through strapping on shin guards, Clement will need to slug his way to a big league career at first base. He’s a career .279/.368/.492 hitter in 1,500+ plate appearances at the Triple-A level. Clement, 26, figures to get his first crack at an everyday job if Pittsburgh feels comfortable with Garrett Jones in right field.

Second Base

Sean Rodriguez, Rays

CHONE: .241/.327/.447, .338 wOBA

Snagged from the Angels in last year’s Scott Kazmir deal, Rodriguez has beat the bejesus out of the baseball in Triple-A (.298/.396/.620 line in 750 PA), though Salt Lake City (the Halos’ highest minor league affiliate) is a cozy place for a batter to take his cuts. The 25 year-old doesn’t have a clear path to everyday playing time, but he has experience at second base, shortstop, third base and in the outfield. With Tampa, Rodriguez will perhaps fill in at the keystone when Ben Zobrist plays the outfield, while catching an occasional start at other positions when a regular needs a breather.

Shortstop

Ronny Cedeno, Pirates

CHONE: .257/.303/.389, .304 wOBA

Slim pickings here. That CHONE projection would actually constitute a great leap forward for the former Cub and Mariner, who has a career .272 wOBA in the majors. Cedeno just plain hasn’t been able to handle big league fastballs to this point: per 100 pitches, he has been two runs below average when a pitcher reaches back and fires. He has hacked first and asked questions later, too, chasing 35.5 percent of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (25% MLB average). Cedeno, 27, will “battle” Bobby Crosby in spring training for a starting spot.

Last we heard, both Ronny and Bobby are trying to board Oceanic Flight 815, hoping to crash on the “The Island” back in 2004. I’m not sure that even Jacob or The Man in Black could help these two, though.

Third Base

Alex Gordon, Royals

CHONE: .267/.353/.435, .350 wOBA

The fervor surrounding Gordon never reached Wieters-esque levels, but the Golden Spikes Award Winner and Nebraska star was supposed to mash from the moment the K.C. home crowd gave him a standing ovation in 2007. Gordon’s ’09 campaign was marred by a hip injury, but it’s important to keep in mind that a “disappointing” major league performance to this point has resulted in a 98 wRC+ (two percent below the MLB average).

The 26 year-old lefty batter must show improvement versus breaking stuff, particularly of the southpaw variety, but CHONE projects an offensive showing that’s 14 percent better than the big league average next season (114 wRC+).

Outfield

Wladimir Balentien, Reds

CHONE: .265/.342/.487, .358 wOBA

Traded from the Mariners to the Reds last year, Balentien is a hulking righty hitter who has impaled pitchers at Triple-A (.283/.359/.534 in 819 PA) and flailed in the majors (.221/.281/.374 in 559 PA, with a 72 wRC+). He hasn’t exactly crushed fastballs. But against curves and sliders, Wlad has looked like a beer league softball player who hit the kegs a little overzealously in the early innings. His contact rate to this point is a Custian 69.8 percent (80-81% MLB average).

Still, Balentien is a 25 year-old with a good record in the high minors. He’ll fight for playing time in left field with a laundry list of others, including Chris Dickerson, Jonny Gomes, and possibly Chris Heisey.

Delmon Young, Twins

CHONE: .305/.339/.454, .346 wOBA

Remember “Delmon Young, the next Albert Belle“? The first overall pick in the 2003 draft earned the adoration of prospect mavens by throttling pitchers at minor league levels where he was several years younger than the competition. Sure, his strike zone was expansive, but it was easy to dream of a day when he’d be an all-around force at the plate.

Now 24, Young enters the 2010 season with a career 95 wRC+ in the majors. The problems: a tendency to swing at anything from North Dakota to Wisconsin (career 40.4 Outside-Swing% and a four percent walk rate) and roll over the ball (50 percent groundball rate). It also doesn’t help that he has played DH-worthy defense (career -18.9 UZR/150 in LF). He’s not doomed yet, but there’s a good chance that he’s the next Jose Guillen instead of the next Belle

Lastings Milledge, Pirates

CHONE: .284/.345/.423, .338 wOBA

Once a premium center field prospect with the Mets, Milledge is now a left fielder on his third organization. His career wRC+ is just 93, as he has often strayed from the zone (31.6 Outside-Swing%) and rarely popped the ball over the fence or into the gaps (.132 ISO). The soon-to-be 25 year-old doesn’t project as a standout defender, so he’ll need to up the offensive ante in Pittsburgh. Jose Tabata and Gorkys Hernandez both have ETAs of late 2010 or early 2011.

Ian Desmond is one of the last successful draft picks in Montreal Expos history. He was nabbed by the then Expos in the third round of the 2004 June draft and signed for $430,000. That would be the last draft before the Expos moved to Washington D.C.

Desmond appeared in spring training with the big league club as just a 19-year-old in 2005 and instantly started making good impressions. Then manager, Frank Robinson, said he’d be in the big leagues in a few years and Desmond even drew a few flattering Derek Jeter comparisons.

Despite these reviews Desmond struggled with his bat in the minors and battled some injuries along the way. He’s always drawn praise for his good range and plus-arm at shortstop. Desmond missed the first two months of the 2009 season recovering from surgery that removed the hamate bone from his left hand. This injury typically lingers and is known to sap power but it didn’t appear to bother Desmond.

Before 2009 Desmond shortened his swing and changed his approach at the plate. It seemed to work as he exploded onto the scene in Double-A in his return from injury. In 42 games Desmond had a .396 wOBA after a .319 mark in 2008 in 93 games a year prior at the same level.

This earned him his first promotion to Triple-A where he didn’t slow down. In 55 games he hit .354/.428/.461 (.408 wOBA). High BABIPs of .425 in AAA and .371 in AA fueled Desmond’s triple-slash lines but those can’t all be attributed to good luck. He did mash the ball harder at higher levels in the system.

In September the Nationals gave Desmond a September call up and he responded quite well. In his big league debut spanning 21 games and 82 at-bats he hit .280/.318/.561 with four homers. There his BABIP sat at just .292.

It’s worth nothing that Desmond’s strikeout rates have consistently sat in the low to mid 20 range throughout his minor league career. But in 2009 they dropped from 23.5% in Double-A to 17% in his AAA and big league stints. While we are dealing with a small sample size here the progression is still interesting and inspiring.

Baseball America recently ranked Desmond as the Nationals fourth best prospect a few months ago. Here is a portion of the glowing scouting report they have on him:

Desmond is 24-years-old this year and after his success in AAA and Washington many assumed he would begin 2010 as the Nationals starting shortstop after the organization informed Cristian Guzman late last season that he would be shifting to second base in 2010. But then the Nationals signed veteran Adam Kennedy to play second and appear to have a change of heart regarding Guzman after he had shoulder surgery.

As of now Desmond would be squeezed out of a starting position with the big league club at the outset of the season. Manager Jim Riggleman has indicated that Guzman will be the starter at shortstop and Kennedy at second as long as Guzman’s healthy this spring.

The club is considering Desmond to become a utility man in the majors this season but that hasn’t been approved by everyone in the organization. Senior Advisor Davey Johnson voiced his concerns over that plan and wants Desmond to be in the starting line up.

I’d have to agree with Johnson here and would like to see Desmond in the starting line up to start the season. For what it’s worth…EVERY SINGLE projection system here at FanGraphs is projecting Desmond (looking at wRC+) to hit better than Guzman AND Kennedy this season. The Fans have him projected at an even 2.0 WAR for the 2010 season.

Hopefully Desmond is granted the opportunity to display his abilities regularly in D.C. this season but it’s likely that it occurs at some point or another this year even if he starts the season in Triple-A or on the bench due to the inferior regulars. He has the makings of an average to slightly above-average hitter (think .280/.340/.440) at the shortstop position with good defense.

Once Desmond receives the opportunity to have regular at-bats in the Nations Capital you should jump on the opportunity to grab him from the waiver wire. He has the makings to become a cheap source of solid production and could be a big help if you’re in a pinch at the shortstop position.

At first blush, Arizona Diamondbacks right-hander Billy Buckner looks like a toxic fantasy option. After all, he’s an exiled Kansas City Royal who posted a-shield your eyes!-6.40 ERA in 2009. Why in the world should you care about William Jennings Bucker?

What if I were to argue that Buckner really didn’t pitch that poorly last season? That, in terms of the facets of pitching over which he has the most control, Bucker was actually pretty good? Crazy, right? Perhaps not.

Kansas City’s second round pick in the 2004 draft, Bucker has tossed 324 innings at the Triple-A level (51 starts, 15 relief appearances). Overall, the University of South Carolina product has punched out 6.9 batters per nine frames, with 3.2 BB/9 and a 3.82 Fielding Independent ERA.

Courtesy of Minor League Splits, here are Buckner’s Major League Equivalent lines from 2007-2009, based on his Triple-A work:

2007: 105 IP, 6.26 K/9, 2.83 BB/9, 48.2 GB%, 4.58 FIP
2008: 124 IP, 4.44 K/9, 3.93 BB/9, 46.2 GB%, 5.01 FIP
2009: 106 IP, 7.24 K/9, 4.85 BB/9, 49.5 GB%, 4.17 FIP

Those aren’t the numbers of some amazing, unrecognized pitcher, but they’re useful nonetheless. Buckner’s combined MLE from 2007 to 2009: a 4.65 FIP, with 5.96 K/9 and 3.88 BB/9.

Buckner bounced between Triple-A Tucson and Arizona last year, compiling a big league ERA that would make Daniel Cabrera giggle. But beneath the Boeing-level ERA, Buckner showed some promising skills.

In 77.1 innings pitched (13 starts, 3 ‘pen appearances), the 26 year-old struck out 7.45 batters per nine innings, issuing 3.38 BB/9. He also kept the ball down, generating grounders 48.8 percent of the time. Buckner’s xFIP, based on whiffs, walks and a normalized home run per fly ball rate, was 3.95- nearly two and a half runs lower than his actual ERA.

What happened? For one, it seemed as though the D-Backs righty had seven Bill Buckners behind him, with Mookie Wilson perpetually at the plate (I know, I know-it was an error. But play along). Buckner’s BABIP was .347, the ninth-highest rate among pitchers working at least 70 frames.

In addition, his HR/FB rate was obscenely high: 16.7 percent of fly balls hit against Bucker left the yard, compared to the 11-12 percent major league average. Buckner’s rate of stranding runners on base, 63.2, was also out of whack. Perhaps he does struggle pitching from the stretch. But it seems unlikely that Buckner will have a strand rate seven to nine percent below the big league average again next year.

Buckner did a nice job of getting batters to go fishing, getting swings on pitches out of the strike zone 29.9 percent of the time (25% MLB average). His contact rate was 76.5 percent, below the 80-81 percent major league average.

Granted, he will have to combat Chase Field’s inhospitable environs: per the 2010 Bill James Handbook, Chase boosted run scoring by 15 percent compared to a neutral ball park over the past three seasons. But heading into 2010, Buckner figures to be Arizona’s fifth starter. CHONE projects a 4.45 FIP in 167 innings, with 6.84 punch outs per nine and 3.45 BB/9.

Billy Buckner won’t be on anybody’s draft list. In all likelihood, some of your fellow owners will think you’re just having some 80’s flashback if you mention the guy’s name. But Bucker could be a shrewd NL-only option if injuries send you scrambling to the waiver wire.

Two years ago it seemed as if B.J. Upton was on top of the world. He had just concluded his first full season in the big leagues at age 22 and he posted a .387 wOBA in 129 games. Then the Devil Rays became the Rays and Upton hasn’t been the same since.

Upton didn’t match his 2007 performance in 2008 but he clubbed seven homers in October to help Tampa Bay reach the world series. He experienced some shoulder woes that year and had surgery after the Rays were defeated by the Phillies in the series.

The stage was set last year for Upton to put together a huge season but the exact opposite happened. He missed the first week of the season and the left shoulder that he had operated on in the off season never regained full strength. This all amounted to an extremely frustrating season for Upton as he wrapped up the year with a paltry .310 wOBA over 560 at-bats. His .241/.313/.373 triple-slash was very underwhelming.

Upton has regressed over each of the past three seasons at the plate. Below is his wRC+ trend line over the past three seasons:

wRC+
2007: 139
2008: 119
2009: 89

That’s a consistent and scary trend. Upton’s production has decreased heavily from each season to the next since 2007 and it’s extremely unlikely that he continues such a dreadful trend in 2010.

Luckily for the Rays his plus defense still makes him a valuable player but if he could ever rediscover his stroke at the plate then he would be an extremely valuable player again.

Upton’s entering his 25-year-old season and there is much reason for optimism. A strong and healthy left shoulder should be helpful but there’s also some interesting and telling information that lays in the data. Upton will always strike out at a healthy clip but his career-low 9% walk rate is a point of concern. He walked at higher rates over the prior two seasons.

Upton’s BABIP cratered to .312 last season. Where is his true talent level? That’s hard to tell from his varying samples over the past three seasons. But the helpful BABIP calculator from the Hardball Times tells us another story. Here are his xBABIPs over the past three seasons according to the calculator:

2007: xBABIP- .338. Actual- .399. Difference- +61
2008: xBABIP- .353. Actual- .351. Difference- -2
2009: xBABIP- .338. Actual- .312. Difference- +26

The calculator cuts down on Upton’s BABIP spread over the past three years. The range of his xBABIPs is 15 while the range of his actual BABIPs is 87. There’s no doubt his 2007 BABIP padded his numbers and it set the performance bar pretty high for him at the time.

Despite the exact same (.338) xBABIPs in 2007 and 2009, Upton, hit the ball with much more authority in 2007. He slugged 24 homers in 2007 compared to just 11 last year and he had a career-low 15.4% line drive rate in 2009. His line drive rate was 19.6% in 2007. He also hit a career-high 13 pop ups last season.

All of Upton’s varying and perplexing batting lines can’t be chalked up to just lucky or unlucky BABIP variations. While it played a role there are reasons for such drastic performances and they cannot be easily explained. We may have a true conundrum on our hands and more data will be essential in determining who the real B.J. Upton is. These varying performances do suggest that his bum shoulder really could have played a big role in his lackluster production.

We do know from our nifty run values that Upton battered and bruised fastballs during his banner 2007 campaign. He’s never hit them so well ever since and this does help explain his performance dip. Perhaps that shoulder could have plagued him when he tried to get around on fastballs?

Upton also has funky O-Contact percentages over the past three seasons similar to his varying BABIPs. He’s made contact at a very below-average rate (except for 2008) when he offers at pitches outside of the strike zone. He was actually above-average in 2008 when he had a solid campaign at the plate.

Finally, what can we expect from Upton going forward? It’s hard to exactly say what Upton will do in 2010. He’s always had the ability, athleticism, and a mouth watering set of tools. Some scouts may not be surprised if he unleashes an MVP like season now that he’s in good health.

I think Upton’s 2008 season (.273/.383/.401) would be a nice modest projection (minus some OBP) for Upton and many of the projection systems here at Fangraphs have him projected in that area. It’s playing it safe but his BABIP should recover and that would push him closer to his 2008 totals.

Upton’s a toolsy player and he should be entering his prime. Barring health I’d expect the power to play and it’s fair to project him to drop around 20 homers next year. The 100 Fan Projections currently available have nailed The Upton Case right on the button. The Fans have him at .273/.363/.442 with 40+ stolen bases and I think that’s a very fair and accurate projection.

If you can grab Upton in the middle rounds of your draft then he would be a steal. But don’t be afraid to pop him a bit sooner than that. He’s ready to put that nightmarish 2009 to rest.

For the past two years, Jorge de la Rosa has improved in all four fantasy categories for a starting pitcher. Of course, that was a relatively easy thing for him to do, given how poor he was in 2007. Still, last year de la Rosa finished in the top 20 in both Wins and Ks. Given how fantasy players love to get “the next big thing,” you might think de la Rosa would be a hot commodity in mock draft season. But you would be wrong.

Instead, the Rockies pitcher sits with an ADP of 180. Recently, Razzball unveiled its 2009 end of season fantasy player rater and de la Rosa ranked 131. The mockers are not buying that number and instead forecast that he will not repeat, much less improve upon, his fine numbers from a year ago. Part of it may be the stigma of being a pitcher in Colorado and part of it may be the poor ERA and WHIP numbers.

Either way, it looks like we may have the new Ted Lilly. For several years now, fantasy owners have undervalued Lilly, despite a very good K rate and strong Win totals. Even after posting a 3.10 ERA last year, Lilly still appears to be a bargain, with a current ADP of 149.

Last year, de la Rosa finished with a 4.38 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP. The ERA placed 65th while the WHIP was tied for 59th out of 77 qualified pitchers. Fantasy owners do not want to pay for Wins and shy away from de la Rosa because he is poor in two of the three remaining categories.

At the All-Star break, de la Rosa had a 5.21 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP. But his final 15 starts of the year, he was a different pitcher. In the second half, de la Rosa was 10-2 with a 3.46 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP. He gave up the same number of HR in the second half in 8.1 fewer innings. The improvement appears to be all WHIP-related.

After having a 4.28 BB/9 in the first half, de la Rosa followed up with a 3.67 mark after the break. And his BABIP was .301 in the second half, after starting off the year with a .327 mark. In his final 15 games, he had 10 starts where he gave up two or fewer runs.

The turnaround actually started even earlier for de la Rosa, who started the season 0-6 with a 5.43 ERA. He went 16-3 with a 3.94 ERA over the final four months of the season, which matches up almost perfectly to when Jim Tracy took over as the team’s manager.

In July, de la Rosa credited his turnaround to his two-seam fastball and throwing more first-pitch strikes, although the numbers do not necessarily support this claim. While his F-Strike% of 55.9 was up from a year ago, it was lower than it was in 2007. And TexasLeaguers.com shows him throwing his two-seam fastball at just 2.4 percent for the year.

Either way, it is easy to read too much into second half numbers. One needs only to recall the second half of 2008 and then 2009 for Ricky Nolasco to remember this lesson. But de la Rosa does not need a 3.46 ERA or a 1.30 WHIP to be a big bargain at his current ADP.

Anecdotally, we can all remember lefties that discovered control and success later than normal, including Randy Johnson, Al Leiter and Sandy Koufax. But while there is no proof that lefties develop later than righties, it would be foolish to ignore the possibility that de la Rosa could be another late bloomer. If he can continue to throw strikes like he did in the second half, de la Rosa could wind up as one of the top pitchers in baseball.

It’s time for another episode of “You can get with that, but this is where it’s at,” boys and girls. This week, we take a look at the heroes manning what may prove to be the thinnest position on the diamond. Where shortstop had such frugal luminaries as Everth Cabrera, Ryan Theriot and Elvis Andrus, and catcher featured thrifty backstops like Miguel Montero and A.J. Pierzynski, we may have a harder time finding values at the hot corner.

As usual, we’ll start in the first tier. You can’t really fault anyone for going big with Alex Rodriguez (despite the hip and the age, 3.37 ADP), David Wright (despite the power outage, 14.76 ADP), Evan Longoria (I don’t see a problem here, 10.28 ADP) or Mark Reynolds (the king of the whiff, 20.17 ADP). Why is Ryan Zimmerman being drafted at the end of the third round (39.78 ADP)? I guess people are suspicious of his career high .233 ISO (and 33 home runs) last year. I take the view that nothing seems out of place for a 25 year-old top prospect with a .229 minor league ISO and a slowly increasing fly ball rate, who is also on the correct side of his peak. Sign me up for some of that in 2010.

The next tier has some svelte athletes (Pablo Sandoval, 44.83 ADP), some slow-footed plodders (Chone Figgins, 77.84 ADP) and some low-contact sluggers (Michael Young, 93.51 ADP). Scarcasm aside, why not take a player with possibly the same amount of risk (and yet bundles of upside) a little bit later than the fellow members of his tier? Gordon Beckham (93.87 ADP) had a good rookie season despite a low line drive percentage (16.6%) that kept his BABIP down (.294), and therefore his batting average (.270). But look at the good side, if you prorate out his stats, he had a 21-home run, 11 stolen-base kind of year, and his line drive rates were much higher in the minor leagues. Even if he just finished out the pro-rated string next year, he’d be an ADP value in his tier. Bend it like Beckham!

Let’s move past mixed metaphors to the final tier. This tier makes you realize how turdly third base truly is this year. You can gamble on next year’s Mark Reynolds with Ian Stewart (131.84 ADP) or put your grandfather Larry Wayne Jones (ADP 134.39) in the position and cross your fingers. The projection systems don’t like the bearded wonder Casey Blake (ADP 162.64) for good reason, as late bloomers are usually early exits. You could say the same about Mark DeRosa (ADP 246.44), really. Who’s to like in this tier?

The answer, in the immortal words of Homer Simpson, is “I… don’t… know.” I’d probably try to avoid the whole situation altogether by drafting a third-sacker earlier. But I think I might take a pair of players from the bottom, and those two might be Adrian Beltre (ADP 199.55) and Alex Gordon (245.03). Some may say that splits aren’t statistically significant, but perhaps that’s not true in Beltre’s case, who has a grand total of 3272 away at-bats away from pitcher’s havens in Los Angeles and Seattle. In those (probably significant at-bats), he’s put up a .287/.338/.488 career line (compared to a .726 OPS at home). I’d just cover my butt with a post-hype sleeper like Gordon, who had been making nice strides in walk rate, strikeout rate, ISO, line drive rate, and reach rate before injury sidelined him last year. I’ll be owning him more than once this year, I’d reckon.

Ah! Let me stop you right there. Jorge Cantu is ranked as a first baseman.