Baltimore Orioles signed Miguel Tejada to a one-year, $6 million contract with $1M in possible incentives.

After a two-year stint in Houston, Tejada is headed back to Baltimore to take over third base for the O’s. The 35 year-old has never appeared at a position other than shortstop in the big leagues, but Miggy hasn’t rated particularly well at that spot. His three-year UZR/150 at short is -4, and John Dewan’s Plus/Minus system has Tejada at -4.7 per year from 2007-2009.

Tejada is no longer the prodigious power hitter of the late ’90’s and first half of the aughts. His wRC+ was 109 in 2007, 92 in 2008 and bounced back to 112 this past year. His Isolated Power has remained relatively stable over that period: .146 in ’07, .131 in ’08 and .142 in ’09. However, his home run stroke is on the wane:

Tejada’s home run per fly ball rate, 2007-2009

2007: 12.7%
2008: 8%
2009: 7.7%

The righty batter has never drawn many walks (career 6.3 BB%), but his rate of free passes taken has gone from 7.2% in 2007, 3.6% in 2008 and 2.8% this past season. Among batters with 500 or more plate appearances, only Bengie Molina showed a stronger aversion to ball four.

As you might expect, Tejada is swinging more often, both at pitches off the plate and within the strike zone. His contact rate has increased. Maybe Tejada is choking up in deference to Father Time:

2007: 28.4 O-Swing%, 67.9 Z-Swing%, 48.1 Swing%, 85.9 Contact%
2008: 34.7 O-Swing%, 70.4 Z-Swing%, 53 Swing%, 86.5 Contact%
2009: 32.5 O-Swing%, 71.9 Z-Swing%, 52.7 Swing%, 88.4 Contact%

(the MLB averages are about 25% for O-Swing, 66% for Z-Swing, 45% for Swing and 81% for Contact)

That combination of few walks and ample contact makes Tejada a Three True Outcomes trailer. Over the past three seasons, he has put the ball in play at the fourth-highest rate in the majors.

While he’s not a fantasy force anymore, Tejada still retains value as a guy who will qualify at multiple positions. His shortstop eligibility is certainly a plus. CHONE projects a .297/.333/.434 triple-slash for Miggy in 2010, with a 104 wRC+.

Tejada’s taking over third means that Cesar Izturis remains at short, and Garrett Atkins will slide over to first for the most part. Which makes Ty Wigginton Atkins’…stunt double? It’s not especially what the difference is between the two. Neither gets points for defense, and Wigginton holds the edge at the dish:

Three-year wRC+

Atkins: 98 wRC+
Wigginton: 107 wRC+

CHONE predicts a 97 wRC+ for Atkins next season, and a 105 mark for Wigginton.

Tejada’s not a bad option if you’re in a pinch at the shortstop spot. He’s on the downslide, but his bat should be a tick above average in 2010.

When we checked the position at shortstop, it became clear through the tiers that there were some values to be had. Shortstop can be a tough position in fantasy baseball, because it’s one of the most volatile positions, but it’s also a shallow position. Having a stud there is immensely valuable, and that’s why many a successful manager will pick one in the early rounds. On the other hand, there were plenty of fantasy teams that were sunk by their early shortstop picks last year (thank you, Jose Reyes!).

So what are we to do? The answer, as always, is to focus on the position and yet avoid overpaying. So let’s take a look at the Average Draft Positions (via Mock Draft Central) and see some similar players that will cost disparate draft picks in 2010. That’ll bag us some value picks.

Alexei Ramirez is a fine player. He managed better-than-scratch defense at shortstop this year (+2.4 UZR/150), cut down on his terrible reach rate (from 42.7 to 32.1%), and made more contact in the zone (87.6% to 91%) in 2009. He still doesn’t hit line drives (16.1% career) and his power is suspect (.185 ISO in 2008, .113 ISO in 2009), but he’s a fine player with the upside to hit .280 with 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases. His ADP (108.2) is not terrible – using an eighth-round pick on that upside is fine.

But what if I told you that you could wait another six rounds and get someone that might better Ramirez’ production this year? That’s right, Elvis Andrus is being drafted, on average, with the 179th pick of drafts this year. Andrus won’t give you the power that his white-socked counterpart will provide, but he will certainly out-steal Sexei. The fans like Andrus for 42 stolen bases next year, and that is a reasonable projection given his 33 successful thefts in only 39 attempts in his rookie year. Their batting averages are projected to be similar (Andrus is projected from .266 to .280, Ramirez .277 to .286), so you’d be paying 70 draft spots for about ten home runs if you draft Ramirez. Andrus is the value here.

Rafael Furcal has already been eviscerated by Zach Sanders this site, and maybe y’all are listening because his ADP went from 127 at the time of his post to 130.34 currently. Well, maybe a couple of you are listening, but we’ll let Zach’s analysis speak for itself. Yunel Escobar certainly is more likely to have a healthy year than Furcal and is going two-to-three rounds later (ADP 156.06), so you’d think he’s the value of his tier. There are certainly some nice things about Escobar – his power seems to be slowly developing as his ISO, fly ball and HR/FB numbers have all increased in his first three years in the league. But he still only shows modest power (his .136 ISO in 2009 was his career high) and unless you are in an OBP league, Escobar’s 15 or so home runs and five or so stolen bases aren’t very exciting.

The real value of this tier comes a whopping 111 picks later. Ryan Theriot won’t knock the stitches out of any balls this year, but once again we have the option of eschewing a mere dozen home runs at most and reaping the benefits of almost ten rounds of picks in the mean time (his ADP is 267.61!). Theriot should steal as many as 20 more bases than Escobar, all while putting up a similar batting average. His OBP won’t even be that much worse than Escobar’s, as he’s projected to put up a number in the .350s while the Atlanta shortstop should come in somewhere in the .370s. I’ll take the cheaper shortstop here, making Theriot the true value of the final shortstop tier.

One of the premier fantasy shortstops from 2003-2006, Rafael Furcal has fallen off the map the past two years.

From 2003-2006, Furcal averaged 14 homers and 34 steals a year with a .289/.354/.433 line, numbers anyone would take from their starting fantasy shortstop. Furcal dropped off a bit in 2007, hitting .270/.333/.355 with 6 homers and 25 steals. Still not terrible numbers, but nothing compared to what he had done in the recent past. Part of his problem is 2007 was ankle injury that bothered him and forced him to the DL, and a lower back issue that popped up later in the year.

The big turning point for Furcal was that back injury, because it never got any better. He underwent surgery in May of 2008 after playing only 36 games. In those 36 games he looked tremendous, but a small sample size and fluky BABIP threw that right out the window.

Some owners, however, believed that a fixed back combined with a great month in 2008 would bring Furcal back to fantasy greatness. If you were one of those owners, stop reading this article now, climb onto your roof, and jump. Last year, Furcal hit .269/.335/.375, cranked 9 balls out of the park but swiped only 12 bases in 18 tries. Not good.

If I told you a random shortstop had ankle problems and back surgery, followed by a continued downward trend of his fantasy numbers, would you draft him? No, you wouldn’t. Don’t get sucked in by Furcal’s past returns, just stay away. It’s for your own good.

Right now, Furcal is the ninth shortstop off the board, being selected around pick 127 according to Mock Draft Central. Why do owners continue to reach for Furcal hoping he will fill their needs at shortstop? I’d much rather have Elvis Andrus (180), or Ryan Theriot (275) than Furcal, and they are being picked at a much more attractive position.

This story shouldn’t be anything special. Player A gets hurt, is a little old and doesn’t produce. Fantasy owners draft him high wishfully thinking he will bounce back. Don’t. When someone in your league drafts Furcal, look at them, point, and laugh.

One of 2009’s biggest surprises, Ben Zobrist was an afterthought and hardly drafted before the year began. Now, he is in everyone’s mind and has moved up the rankings fast. Most players that breakout the year before and are underrated become overrated almost overnight. Using ADP data provided by Mock Draft Central, we can easily take a look at where Zobrist is going, and whether he is over/under/correctly valued going into 2010.

At the time that I am writing this, on average, Zobrist is currently the 8th second baseman off the board and is being drafted at around pick number 60. The second baseman being drafted before him (Aaron Hill) is taken 12 picks ahead of Zobrist, and the second baseman after him (Dan Uggla) goes a whopping 27 picks later.

Because he was a utility man in 2009, Zobrist should also be available as an outfielder in all leagues. Currently, he is the 16th outfielder off the board, sandwiched between Curtis Granderson (56) and teammate B.J. Upton (60). Even better, Zobrist started 6 games at shortstop and played a total of 13 games at that position, giving him extra eligibility in some leagues (like Yahoo!) that may carry over into the 2010 season. If that is the case, Zobrist would be the sixth SS off the board, after Derek Jeter (51) and teammate Jason Bartlett (104).

It’s hard to put a price on a player’s ability to play two, and possibly three positions and provide a solid offensive return. Because we are talking about Zobrist, and this is FanGraphs, I suppose we need to talk some stats. Fine. Below are Zobrist’s stats from 2008 and 2009, along with the Fan Projections for 2010.

2008: .253/.339/.505, 12 HR, 3 SB, 32 R, 30 RBI, .255 BABIP, .311 xBABIP
2009: .297/.405/.543, 27 HR, 17 SB, 91 R, 91 RBI, .330 BABIP, .327 xBABIP
2010: .282/.378/.470, 22 HR, 14 SB, 94 R, 107 RBI

Fans are expecting a drop-off in power and steals, and a decrease in batting average. Not good. However, those numbers still aren’t terrible, and better than most second baseman on the market. For a shortstop, I like a little more speed and a higher average, but you can always compensate at other positions. As an outfielder, the numbers aren’t great. The RBI’s and runs are very good, but I’d rather play him at an infield position.

Overall, I’d be willing to take Zobrist in the middle round six, a little after where he is projected to go. For once, a breakout player doesn’t seem to be too overvalued going into drafts. Zobrist isn’t underrated anymore, and you’ll have to pay market value for his services on your fantasy team.

Lost in all of the hot stove rumblings from the winter meetings yesterday was some moves that Rangers manager Ron Washington mentioned in his “state of the team” press conference. In his presser, Washington said that Julio Borbon will play centerfield and bat leadoff, allowing Josh Hamilton to move to left field. However, these plans could change if Marlon Byrd resigns with the team.

After being called up in early August, Borbon hit .312/.376/.414, stealing 19 bases in 23 tries. He also hit 4 homers in 179 plate appearances. You, the fan, project Borbon to hit .297/.355/.392 next year, with 33 steals in 116 games. I am a bit more optimistic when it comes to Borbon’s average, which I believe could stay above .300, but a .297 average is still acceptable if he steals 30+ bases. While Borbon is a great player, things have to go a certain way this offseason for him to keep his current value. It will probably take more than Byrd signing with the team to drop Borbon out of the lineup, because Byrd could play left field and allow Hamilton to play DH. However, if the Rangers resign Byrd and pickup a DH, Borbon’s playing time would hit a significant snag. I don’t see the Rangers signing Byrd at all, let along Byrd and a DH, so Borbon is safe in my book.

Also mentioned was the Rangers plan to bat shortstop Elvis Andrus ninth in the order, allowing he and Borbon to hit back-to-back. Many owners, such as myself, have been hoping that Andrus would be moved up in the order, allowing him score more runs and get more at-bats for extra stolen base chances.

Andrus hit .267/.329/.373 with 33 steals in 541 plate appearances. Fans are projecting a .277 average with 42 steals next year, numbers bound to make any owner happy. We know Andrus is going to play, but more at-bats throughout the year would have been nice to have, even if it doesn’t necessarily hurt his value.

For three years now, Brandon Wood has whacked AAA pitching and waited for an opening at the major league level. With Chone Figgins set to join the Mariners , it appears that Wood finally has a clean shot at winning a job with the Angels.

L.A.’s first-round pick in the 2003 amateur draft, Wood posted promising numbers as a teenager in Rookie Ball and in the Low-A Midwest League. But the 6-3 righty batter really burst onto the prospect scene in 2005, scorching the High-A California League.

The Cal League is known for offensive outbursts, but Wood’s .321/.383/.672 line at Rancho Cucamonga was still eye-popping. He clubbed 43 home runs and posted a .351 ISO, while playing shortstop, no less.

Wood walked in 8.1 percent of his PA, while punching out at a moderate 21.5% clip. Ranking Wood the best prospect in L.A.’s system, Baseball America predicted he would “develop into a perennial all-star infielder at either shortstop or third base.”

Promoted to the AA Texas League in 2006, Wood continued to crush while sticking at shortstop. He authored a .276/.355/.552 triple-slash in 552 PA. Wood’s whiff rate spiked (32.9 K%), though his secondary skills remained elite. He posted a 10.7 BB%, with a .276 ISO.

Since then, Wood has pulverized the Pacific Coast League:

Wood’s AAA numbers, 2007-2009

2007: .272/.338/.497, .224 ISO, 9.3 BB%, 27.5 K%
2008: .296/.375/.595, .299 ISO, 10.2 BB%, 26.3 K%
2009: .293/.353/.557, .264 ISO, 8.5 BB%, 20.7 K%

Wood has oscillated between shortstop and third base in AAA, splitting his time between the positions almost evenly in 2009.

In 1,383 career PA with Salt Lake, Wood owns a .287/.354/.547 line. Salt Lake is another excellent hitting environment. While I can’t find park factors for the 2009 season, this Baseball Think Factory thread shows that Spring Mobile Ballpark (home of the Bees) increased run scoring by six percent and home runs by seven percent compared to a neutral ball park from 2006-2008.

Here are Wood’s Major League Equivalent (MLE) lines from ’07 to ’09, courtesy of Minor League Splits:

2007: .210/.263/.370
2008: .235/.299/.446
2009: .235/.283/.432

Penalizing Wood for hefty punch out rates and the high-octane hitting environment of Salt Lake, those MLE’s don’t paint an especially pretty picture.

From 2007 to 2009, Wood’s playing time with the Angels could best be described as scattered. In 236 trips to the plate, he has batted just .192/.222/.313. He has walked in 3% of his PA, while striking out 33 percent. Wood’s outside-swing percentage is near 37 percent (25% MLB average), with a 68.5% contact rate (80-81% MLB average).

Those numbers are ugly. But let’s not bury the guy for a couple hundred bad PA’s split over a three-year period. Now that third base appears to be his for the taking, what can Wood provide fantasy owners in 2010?

Sean Smith’s CHONE projects a .242/.304/.434 line next season, which equates to a WOBA of about .319. The fans are a bit more optimistic, envisioning a .257/.315/.450 performance (.331 wOBA). Per Baseball Prospectus, Wood’s 2009 line in AAA translates to a .249/.308/.479 MLB triple-slash (.336 wOBA). For comparison, the average MLB third baseman hit .265/.335/.421 in 2009 (.332 wOBA).

Turning 25 in March, Wood doesn’t as a major league star any more. His low contact rate and average plate discipline make it difficult to envision an OBP above the big league average (.333 in 2009).

But don’t write him off as a bust, either. Wood possesses ample pop, and he’s not a total hacker at the plate. Baseball Prospectus’ peak translation for Wood (which attempts to forecast a player’s top performance level in the majors) is .256/.319/.513 (.354 wOBA).

Wood’s star no longer shines brilliantly. However, he’s still capable of being a solid starter in the majors. That may be disappointing to those who hoped for a franchise player, but Wood is worth targeting in A.L.-only and keeper leagues.

Rays shortstop Jason Bartlett entered the 2009 season with a reputation as a good defender with plus speed and little to no home run power. He had the ability to hit for an above average batting average and could leg out some triples due to his plus speed. WAR had always treated him well due to his plus glove over the years but in his first year with the Rays his UZR declined to 2.1 runs above average. His WAR suffered to a below average 1.8 rating for the shortstop position and his .286/.329/.361 line (and well below average .311 wOBA) didn’t help his WAR prospects. He was entering the 2009 season as a 29 year old and people had a good idea what to expect from him.

And then Bartlett manages to hit an insane .320/.389/.490 with 14 home runs in 500 at-bats. Ironically, Bartlett’s glove (-5.5 UZR) hurt his value for the first time in his career but his hitting more than made up for it as he ranked fourth in WAR for MLB shortstops with a 4.8 number. Bartlett hit one home run during all of 2008 and he more than doubled his career home run total with his 2009 showing.

It’s fair to say that no one expected this kind of production from Bartlett entering 2009 just like many were blinded sided by the Ben Zobrist power surge. There’s been some work done to crack the Zobrist code and Bartlett has drawn some comparisons to the Zobrist surge. It’s extremely puzzling that Bartlett went from light hitting shortstop to a .490 slugging shortstop in one season.

Typically the media over speculates players that show up in “good” or “bad” shape during spring training but for what it’s worth Bartlett arrived at Rays sporting a bulkier frame that had 15 pounds added to it over the off season. Perhaps this could have negatively affected his defense as attributed to his -5.5 UZR but he still stole a career high 30 bases in 37 tries (81% success rate).

Upon further examination Bartlett whacked 11 of his 14 home runs away from Tropicana Field in 2009. And he hit much better on the road (.333/.405/.547) than he did at home (.305/.371/.425) but it should be noted that these splits show zero correlation to his 2008 home/road splits where he hit better at home. Bartlett seemed to enjoy the friendly confines of the new Yankee Stadium in 2009 where he slammed three of his fourteen homers.

The nifty Hit Tracker classifies each players home runs into certain bins. Eight of Bartlett’s home runs were labeled as “plenty home run” where the baseball comfortably left the ballpark. Six of his homers were classified as “Just Enoughers” which the Hit Tracker’s website defines as: “The ball cleared the fence by less than 10 vertical feet, OR that it landed less than one fence height past the fence. These are the ones that barely made it over the fence.” Perhaps the baseball gods helped a few extra homers clear the fence for Bartlett but he did still hit eight long balls comfortably over the fence.

This could be a classic case of good player development at the big league level where Bartlett made some adjustments and truly did become a new player with an improved skill set. But we will not accept nor should you be expected to accept that for an answer here at Fangraphs!

Enter our favorite toy: The Hardball Times BABIP estimator. This calculator finds an estimated BABIP based upon a players rate of HR’s, K’s, SB’s, line drives, fly balls, pop ups and groundballs. Bartlett had a flukey looking .368 BABIP in 2009 that easily trumps his .330 career mark.

Bartlett’s 2009 line drive percentage was an astounding 26% which would have screamed that his 2009 BABIP wasn’t too out of line as recently as a few years ago before we had the calculator and used the now defunct .120 + LD% formula for expected BABIP. This line drive percentage increase indicates that Bartlett did indeed hit the ball harder in 2009 and the more line drives the better but we still have to consider the margin for error in the data. Defining a line drive can be subjective to different scorers and me and you.

After plugging the proper values into the calculator it gives us an expected BABIP of .337 for Bartlett. This changes a lot and based off of this we would expect Bartlett to have hit .279/.348/.449 which is a bit more normal than his .320/.389/.490 triple-slash in 2009.

I do believe in the human element in baseball and do believe in strong player development and that players do make adjustments as they advance in their careers just like we become better at our professions as we spend more years in a particular field of concentration. If you’ve spent ten years in a certain career I bet you feel that you’re a much better and more knowledgeable worker than you were five years ago. People make adjustments and do improve and Jason Bartlett can too. We must not forget that he is a human being.

In summary the numbers do suggest that Bartlett made some notable improvements to his game. His strong line drive percentage suggests that he’s hitting the ball harder. The Hit Tracker says he popped eight “plenty” home runs that easily sailed over the fence. Just those eight homers spike his slugging percentage much more than the one homer did just one year ago in 2008. And he also set a career high in stolen bases at 30. While Bartlett mashed much better away from home the sample size (200+ at-bats on the road and at home) is not enough to draw a convicting conclusion. Tom Tango would have harsh some words for me if I tried using splits of that size to indicate a change in skill.

Bartlett’s six “just enough” homers as defined by the Hit Tracker suggest that he may have hit a few lucky homers last season. The trusty BABIP calculator believes Bartlett should have hit for a collective .279/.348/.449 in 2009 and I believe that’s a much closer indication of his true skill level even if it isn’t the perfect forecast. And I’m mighty excited to see how you all project Bartlett in our 2010 Fan Projections.

Bartlett will be a good bet for around 25 steals next year and a solid source of batting average (.290-.300) and some power. It’d be safe to project ten home runs from him in 2009. Luckily for fantasy owners they are not responsible for projecting Bartlett’s defense which has slowly declined over the past three seasons according to UZR. UZR no longer sees him in the elite fielding category for shortstops like he was during his Minnesota days.

Jason Bartlett stunned a lot of people in 2009 but while it appears that he made some real adjustments to his game don’t think he’s the .389 wOBA hitter that he was in 2009. Fantasy players may be antsy to pop Bartlett early in your draft next year but don’t be the one to do so. You’ll be better off to select another safer shortstop option.

Alex Gonzalez will be manning shortstop in Toronto once again… only it will be a different Alex Gonzalez.

Alex S. Gonzalez was the Jays’ starting shortstop from 1994-2001, before rookie GM J.P. Ricciardi shed his salary in a trade dump with the Cubs. The younger Gonzalez, who was originally signed by Florida, will take over the position nine years after the original Gonzo left town.

Both players share some similar traits. Both shortstops were above-average defenders, but below average hitters (albeit with a little added pop). The elder Gonzalez finished his career in ’07 with a triple-slash line of .243/.302/.391, while the 32-year-old infielder has a career line of .247/.294/.395 in 1,229 big-league games.

Entering 2010, the junior Gonzalez will see everyday duty at shortstop with Toronto. The club also recently announced that it had resigned veteran backup John McDonald to a two-year, $3.0 million contract. He’ll likely spell Gonzalez at short once or twice a week, while also seeing time at second base and third base.

Defensively, which really doesn’t help fantasy owners, Gonzalez should pair with Aaron Hill to provide solid defense up the middle. Gonzalez had an UZR of 10.5 this past season. His range will help to make up for the poor play at the hot corner by Edwin ‘E5’ Encarnacion. Gonzalez’ defense pulled up his abysmal hitting to give him a 0.5 WAR rating, which means he was worth about $2.4 million in ’09. Terms of his 2010 contract have not been released.

Gonzalez split the ’09 season between Boston and Cincinnati and hit .238/.279/.355 in 391 at-bats. Bill James‘ projection for Gonzalez in 2010 is a line of .248/.305/.387. He hasn’t played more than 112 games in the past four seasons (having missed ’08 in its entirety), so McDonald should certainly get more playing time in 2010, after Marco Scutaro (possibly headed to Boston via free agency) started almost every game until he was hurt in September.

If Gonzalez sees some power return to his game in 2010 (His ISO was just .118 in ’09, compared to an average of .170 or so between 2003-07), he could see his value increase a little bit. Even so, he’s certainly not a Top 10 fantasy option at the position, and he may not be in the Top 20 either. Because of his defensive value, he’s far more valuable in real-life baseball than in fantasy ball.

Now that J.J. Hardy has been shipped to the Twin Cities for CF Carlos Gomez, Milwaukee’s shortstop position belongs solely to Alcides Escobar.

The soon-to-be 23 year-old, signed out of Venezuela in 2003, has long been lauded for his slick glove work. Sean Smith’s Total Zone defensive system rated Escobar as +24 runs above average per 150 defensive games in 2008 and +21 in 2009. Hardy is an outstanding defender in his own right, but Alcides certainly won’t hurt Milwaukee’s pitchers, either.

Considering his position on the defensive spectrum and his exquisite range, Escobar could be a huge asset without putting up many crooked numbers on the scoreboard. But what about that bat? Can Alcides hit enough to make him relevant in fantasy circles in 2010?

The 6-1, 180 pound Escobar made his pro debut as a 17 year-old in 2004, taking his cuts in the Rookie-level Pioneer League. He batted .281/.348/.342 in 262 PA, displaying enough talent to crack Milwaukee’s top 30 prospects entering the 2005 season (Baseball America rated him 25th). Escobar was raw, to be sure, as he walked in less than 8% of his PA and was 20-29 in SB attempts.

Bumped up to the Low-A South Atlantic League in 2005, Alcides took his hacking to another level. Posting a .271/.305/.362 triple-slash in 562 PA, Escobar drew a walk just 3.6% of the time. With a .091 ISO, Alcides rarely got the ball out of the infield. He swiped 30 bases, but his technique remained unrefined (13 CS).

While that assessment sounds negative, keep in mind that Escobar was the same age as a high school senior, yet he managed not to embarrass himself at the plate while rating as a plus defender at shortstop. Baseball America jumped Escobar all the way up to 6th on Milwaukee’s prospects list.

2006 proved to be the toughest year of Alcides’ minor league career. He broke his finger in April, missing several weeks of action. Escobar never did get going at the dish, as he stumbled to a .259/.299/.308 line in 382 PA. Extra-base hits were the rarest of commodities (.049 ISO), and Alcides still swung from his heels with a 5.2 BB%. On the positive side, his 78 percent success rate on the base paths (28 SB in 36 attempts) was the highest mark of his career. BA ranked Escobar 9th among Brewers farm hands, believing that he had a “chance to grow into gap power.”

Milwaukee sent Escobar back to High-A to begin the 2007 season. The defensive stalwart swatted pitchers for a .325/.347/.377 triple-slash in 283 PA. However, the big gap between his ’06 and ’07 numbers appeared to be more of a BABIP spike (.303 in ’06 to .373 in ’07) than legitimate improvement in his plate approach. Escobar walked 2.5% of the time, with a .052 ISO. He was reckless on the bases as well: he snatched 18 bases, but was caught stealing 10 times (64% success rate).

The Brewers were encouraged enough to promote Escobar to the AA Southern League mid-season, where he batted .283/.314/.354 in 245 PA. It was much the same from an offensive standpoint. He improved his walk rate (4.6 BB%) and power output (.071 ISO), but we’re speaking in relative terms here. Strangely, Escobar was glued to first base in AA. He stole just four bases in seven tries.

Encouraged by his play as a 20 year-old just two rungs from the majors, BA bumped Escobar to third in the Milwaukee system. Alcides was said to have gotten stronger, which “stopped pitchers from knocking the bat out of his hands.”

Back at AA Huntsville in 2008, Escobar hit .328/.363/.434 in 597 PA. A .375 BABIP certainly didn’t hurt, and he did remain a free swinger (5.4 BB%). But Escobar posted a .100+ ISO for the first time in his career (.106). His 8 HR in ’08 topped the combined 7 HR he hit from 2004-2007. Escobar also used his wheels more efficiently, going 34 for 42 in steal attempts (81 percent success rate). BA dubbed him the best prospect in the system heading into the 2009 season.

Getting his first taste of AAA ball in ’09, Escobar didn’t disappoint. He managed a .298/.353/.409 line in 487 PA, walking 6.9% of the time with a .112 ISO. The secondary skills were still mild, but Escobar transformed from a potential liability at the plate during his early years to a guy who can at least occasionally deliver something offensively. He continued to use his speed to good effect as well, with a whopping 42 SB in 52 attempts (81 percent).

Called up to Milwaukee in August, Escobar hit .304/.333/.368 in 125 PA. Alcides was anxious in the batter’s box, walking just 3.1% and swinging at nearly 30% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone. He rarely drove the ball (.064 ISO), while making plenty of contact (92.7 Z-Contact%, 87.8% MLB average). Escobar stole four bags in six tries.

Heading into 2010, fantasy owners should expect Escobar to go through some growing pains at the plate. According to Minor League Splits, Alcides’ AAA line equated to a .259/.301/.345 showing at the major league level. That translated line could be selling Escobar a bit short batting average-wise: he had a .346 BABIP in the minors, suggesting his world-class speed allows him to beat out more infield hits than the average batter.

It seems unlikely that the lanky shortstop will become more than a decent hitter, given his paucity of secondary skills, but he has the potential to steal 25+ bags in 2010. Though his plate discipline isn’t quite as good, Escobar could be the National League’s answer to Elvis Andrus.

With human vacuum Alcides Escobar ready for everyday play and incumbent shortstop J.J. Hardy turning in a disappointing 2009 season, the Milwaukee Brewers were determined to shop Hardy this offseason.

It didn’t take long for the Brew Crew to find a trade partner, as the Minnesota Twins acquired Hardy today in exchange for center fielder Carlos Gomez.

Because of a demotion to the minor leagues in August, Hardy will be under team control for the 2010 and 2011 seasons (he would have been eligible for free agency following 2010 without the unwelcomed Nashville vacation).

The 27 year-old is a slick fielder in his own right, but his lumber was MIA in 2009. Hardy posted a solid .338 wOBA in 2007, then followed that up with a .355 mark in 2008.

This past year, though? J.J. turned in a .292 wOBA. After compiling +3.5 Park-Adjusted Batting Runs in ’07 and +13.7 in ’08, Hardy sunk to -13.2 in 2009.

What happened to Hardy’s bat, and can we expect a rebound in 2010?

The first thing that jumps out about Hardy’s line is his .264 BABIP, well below his .306 mark in 2008 and his career .280 BABIP.

Hardy’s career BABIP is fairly low, likely because he had lofty infield/fly ball rates from 2005-2008 (pop ups are near automatic outs). And, Hardy did post a very low line drive rate in 2009 (13.9 percent).

But even so, J.J. was unlucky on balls put in play in 2009. He actually didn’t pop the ball up excessively (9.1 IF/FB%), taking away one possible cause of the low BABIP. Using this expected BABIP tool from The Hardball Times, we get a .306 XBABIP for Hardy, based on his HR, K, SB, line drive rate, fly balls, pop ups and ground balls.

Even assuming all hits were singles, that would raise Hardy’s triple-slash from .229/.302/.357 to a less-wretched .271/.344/.399. His power was down in ’09 (.128 ISO, .166 career average), but his adjusted line equates to a wOBA of roughly .330. That’s a little better than Hardy’s career .325 wOBA. Essentially, his 2009 performance wasn’t all that different from his overall level of play at the major league level.

Heading into 2010, owners should expect Hardy to be neither the offensive stud of 2008 nor the offensive dud of 2009. Hardy looks like a slightly above-average big league hitter. Considering that J.J. is a plus defender at a premium position, it looks as though the Twins got exceptional value here.

Going to Milwaukee is Gomez, who is under team control until 2013. In February of 2008, the Dominican Republic native was the principal prospect acquired in the Johan Santana blockbuster. Now, Gomez heads back to the N.L., presumably replacing pending free agent Mike Cameron.

Turning 24 in December, Gomez derives almost all of his value from his legs. The 6-4, 215 pound righty has yet to show much ability at the dish. His career wOBA in 1,100+ PA is .286. Gomez has walked just 5.1 percent of the time, while hacking at 35.1% of pitches thrown out of the strike zone (his O-Swing% was 29.9 in 2009).

Gomez has a peculiar profile at the plate. He’s as speedy as they come (7.6 career Speed Score, compared to an MLB average around five). Yet, his career groundball rate is just 44.4%, near the MLB average. The former Mets prospect does just about nothing with the fly balls that he hits.

His major league HR/FB rate is 4.6%. Gomez has a career .373 slugging percentage on fly balls. For reference, the AL average was .603 in 2009. When he isn’t hitting harmless flies, Gomez is popping the ball up at an alarming rate. His career IF/FB% is 16.1%.

Given Gomez’s lack of pop and his issues with fastballs (career -1.33 runs per 100 pitches), Milwaukee’s new fly catcher has seen a surprisingly low proportion of heaters (52.6 percent). Of course, he hasn’t really lit it up against sliders (-0.26), curves (-0.37) or changeups (-2.17), either.

Gomez’s wheels are what keep him on the fantasy radar. He swiped 12 out of 15 bags in 2007, 33 in 44 attempts in 2008 and a less-impressive 14-for-21 in 2009. Gomez has a 73.8% SB success rate in the majors.

At the present moment, Gomez is one of those “more valuable in regular baseball than fantasy” guys. He covers a ton of ground in the field (career +14.2 UZR/150 in CF), but he is totally lost at the plate. Owners jonesing for steals will be interested, and it’s possible that Gomez will show something more offensively, given his relative youth. But as the old saying goes, you can’t steal first base.