The Rockies were dealt a major blow this afternoon when they learned that homegrown star Troy Tulowitzki will miss the next six to eight weeks with a fractured wrist. Fantasy teams everywhere will feel Colorado’s pain, because few shortstops can match Tulo’s tremendous production.

There’s just no way to replace a player of this caliber, so the only thing you can do is hope to maintain the status quo. When dealing with a major injury like this, I usually just forget about the counting stats and make sure my replacement won’t kill my AVG and/or OBP. Shortstops that hit homers and drive in runs are rare anyway, so there’s no point in sacrificing rate stats while stabbing in the dark for counting ones that won’t come anyway.

Here’s three players on the waiver wire that could help you weather the storm…

Reid Brignac | Rays | 8% owned

Briggy Ball is playing regularly for Tampa with Jason Bartlett on the disabled list, and he’s quietly hit a respectable .297 with a .353 OBP going into Friday’s games. He’s enjoying some BABIP luck (.384), sure, but his minor league baseline isn’t too far off at .330 in exactly 2,700 plate appearances. There’s a regression on the horizon, but a .270 AVG with a .345 or so OBP is definitely possible for the next few weeks. (R) ZiPS isn’t as optimistic, calling for .252 AVG, .298 OBP the rest of the way. Brignac also has 2B eligibility.

Ian Desmond | Nationals | 24%

The man who displaced Cristian Guzman has been a valuable piece for the Nats based mostly on his defense (+4.6 UZR, +3 DRS), though his offense consists of an empty .268 AVG. However, he’s picked up the pace over the last few weeks, hitting .293 in his last 103 plate appearances prior to tonight’s 1-for-4. (R) ZiPS sees him maintaining that same .268 AVG the rest of the way, though he’s probably the safest bet for playing time among players mentioned in this post.

Jeff Keppinger | Astros | 16%

Seemingly the only source of offense for the punchless ‘Stros (seriously, a team .287 OBP), Keppinger has maintained his .286 AVG and .333 OBP basically all year long despite the lack of help. (R) ZiPS sees more of the same on the way, a .283 AVG and .335 OBP to be exact, which is more serviceable than greate. He also has 2B and 3B eligibility. Keppinger is playing every day for Houston, however they could go into sell mode at any moment, and he could find himself on a contender’s bench just like that.

Aside from direct replacement, you could also somewhat Tulo’s loss by improving another position. It’s easier said than done of course, but if you have some pitching depth to spare it can be done. The outfield is typically the easiest spot to accomplish this simply because there’s multiple spots.

Losing a player of Tulowitzki’s caliber is never easy, and there’s not much you can do other than tread water. Hopefully he’s back in six weeks rather than eight, and doesn’t need much time to shake off the rust.

Ownership rates are based on Yahoo! leagues.

A month has gone by since we last updated these rankings, but they haven’t changed too much. The position continues to be one of the toughest to fill in fantasy sports, and the bottom half of this list is comprised of some imperfect candidates, to say the least. But every team needs a shortstop, so let’s take a look.

The Big Three:
1. Hanley Ramirez, Florida (.367 wOBA, .402 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
2. Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado (.376 wOBA, .369 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
3. Derek Jeter, New York AL (.349 wOBA, .355 ZiPS RoS wOBA)

Jimmy Rollins has to drop out of this tier because of his injury issues. We don’t like to Wally Pipp anyone, but the reality of the situation is that he’s declining physically and his game relies on his athleticism. He’s not all about working the count and getting on base, so if the power and the legs start slipping, it could get a little ugly for Rollins owners.

The Next Best Thing:
4. Jimmy Rollins, Philadelphia (.469 wOBA, .359 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
5. Jose Reyes, New York NL (.295 wOBA, .353 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
6. Elvis Andrus, Texas (.344 wOBA, .336 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
7. Ben Zobrist, Tampa Bay (.377 wOBA, .359 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
8. Stephen Drew, Arizona (.356 wOBA, .341 ZiPS RoS wOBA)

This tier seems pretty uncontroversial. Some may still believe in Rollins, or have given up on Jose Reyes, but this is a solid group of shortstops. They shouldn’t hurt a fantasy team, in other words. Reyes may actually be the lightning rod for discussion, especially placed above a young phenom like Elvis Andrus, but he still retains more power upside than the younger shortstop, and there were some things to like with what Reyes was doing in the second half of May. If he can’t up the walk rate and rediscover his power stroke, though, he’ll move down the list. Andrus might also have some batting average regression coming. Stephen Drew is having a fine season, but with barely-above average power and little speed, he’s just missing those valuable counting stats to move up the list.

The Leftovers:
9. Rafael Furcal, Los Angeles NL (.326 wOBA, .328 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
10. Jason Bartlett, Tampa Bay (.299 wOBA, .328 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
11. Alexei Ramirez, Chicago AL (.290 wOBA, .327 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
12. Miguel Tejada, Baltimore (.298 wOBA, .332 ZiPS wOBA)
13. Yunel Escobar, Atlanta (.291 wOBA, .340 ZiPS wOBA)
14. Marco Scutaro, Boston (.329 wOBA, .352 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
15. Erick Aybar, Los Angeles (.288 wOBA, .316 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
16. Alex Gonzalez, Toronto (.348 wOBA, .300 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

Rafael Furcal and Jason Bartlett drop to this tier for different reasons. Furcal rewarded his owners with more time on the DL, and without the stolen bases he begins to look like an empty batting average. Bartlett isn’t even giving the batting average part of that equation, though, and would drop further down on the list if the rest of the list weren’t so craptastic in its own right. Asdrubal Cabrera will be back on the list when he returns in two months from his forearm fracture. Ryan Theriot, however, has to overcome a platoon situation at second base before he’ll be a valuable shortstop again. An honorable mention goes to Alcides Escobar, who has shown little flashes of his potential and has batted in the second hole some this past month, but the fact that he’s losing starts to Craig Counsell can’t be ignored.

It’s now summer by the American social clock (if not by the solstice calendar), and so you should be furiously checking your wire for injury replacements. It’s even time to start considering if a struggling player is ready to be dropped. We’re here to help.

Brett Myers, Astros (10% owned)
Myers is a flawed pitcher. He may never again reach the strikeout-per-inning numbers of his early career, and he’s lost some velocity off of those days as well. The good news is that the fastball was never his best pitch – in fact, it’s never even been a good pitch (-89.6 runs career, and never once positive by linear weights). He’s still got his nice curveball and slider, and he’s actually snapping that slider at a career pace (32% this year, 9.6% career). This will count as good news because not only is the pitch his best this year (+6.6 runs), but it’s also been his best non-curveball pitch in his career. If this ‘new’ Myers can stay healthy, he seems likely to continue to pitch to the talent level indicated by his 3.89 FIP. Flawed, but helpful in deep leagues. When his .324 BABIP comes down a little bit, his poor WHIP might even improve.

Cliff Pennington, Athletics (11% owned)
Here’s another flawed player for your pleasure. In fact, it’s possible he’s over-owned for a shortstop with an underwhelming .209/.291/.322 line. Of course, his BABIP is .245 and should rise, especially since he’s relatively fleet of foot (5.6 career speed score, six stolen bases this year). In other good news, his contact rates are all up across the board, and his zone contact rate (93.4%) is actually okay. His good line drive rate (21.4%) suggests that he may even be able to better his ZiPs RoS (.250/.324/.348) and break 20 steals overall. If someone in your AL-only league dropped him, he can give you a little something from here on out. Just a little.

Jerry Hairston Jr, Padres (5% owned)
Boy, hit one grand slam and suddenly you’re on waiver lists, eh? Of all the numbers that we may cite about Hairston, however, there is one that is the most important once you get into deep enough leagues: seven. As in, Hairston has started seven straight games for the Padres. This, despite Everth Cabrera’s return from the disabled list. Hairston’s defense is scratch at best (-7.9 UZR/150 in 109 career games at the position), but right now his offense is perculating (10 for his last 26) and the team is winning. And anyway, it’s not like Cabrera was a whiz with the glove anyway (-11 UZR/150 in 127 games at the position). The Padres might best be served being honest about the talent level on their team, and going with the guy that could provide more value for longer in Cabrera, but that’s an argument for another space.

All ownership numbers courtesy of Yahoo Fantasy Sports

In lieu of updating the shortstop rankings – that will come next weekend – it seemed like a good time to check in with a shortstop that seemed like a decent deep league value going into the season. Now, though, Everth Cabrera is looking like a sunk cost on most fantasy teams. Despite special wheels, owners are wondering if he even deserves a roster spot at this point.

Any discussion of Cabrera’s value has to start with strikeouts. Strikeouts are negatively correlated with batting average – that much should be obvious because the batting average on a strikeout is just about zero. Strikeouts aren’t all bad, since they are weakly but positively correlated with power, but power is not Cabrera’s game. He has a .099 ISO (.150 is about the major league average) and his power is even down from last year’s mediocre level.

Last year, Cabrera struck out 23.3% of the time and had a .106 ISO. Only Michael Bourn struck out more than 23% of the time and had an ISO under .130. In fact, only Bourn, Cabrera, B.J. Upton, Dexter Fowler, David Wright, Chase Headley and Mark Teahen had strikeout rates above 23% and below-average ISO at all. And at least two of those guys won’t be on that list this year as their power has recovered.

Cabrera’s power, on the other hand, has gone the other direction. He now has a .073 ISO, which would have been worse than any BA-title qualifying player that struck out over 20% last year other than Emilio Bonifacio. And it’s Bonifacio’s name that should really start striking the alarm bells. The combination of a high strikeout rate and no power is a toxic one that we’ve seen before.

Of course, Cabrera’s defense has the potential to separate him from Bonifacio. While Bonifacio struggled at third and second, Cabrera has the ability to man a key defensive position up the middle, which would alleviate some of the pressure put on the team by his below-average to average offense. Then again, the Friars’ shortstop put up a -13.4 UZR/150 last year, which would have been second-worst in baseball (to Yuniesky Betancourt) had he qualified for the batting title. This year, Cabrera is better (+1.6 UZR/15), and we know from a recent Tom Tango post at The Book Blog that it looks like we could be looking, generally, for about two and a half seasons of fielding data before we draw serious conclusions. For what it’s worth, Cabrera’s defense rated about scratch in the minor leagues.

With a little better BABIP luck (he currently has a .260 BABIP compared to .325 last year), his batting average could approach last year’s mediocre .255 number. With his reach rate climbing, and his strikeout rates steady and poor, that might just represent his upside in terms of batting average. Added to his declining power, this package is one that will never be a great option in fantasy. So it’s really all about his walk rate in the end – if he can return to walking about 10% of the time, he’ll get on base enough to flash the one tool fantasy owners really care about.

Unfortunately, since scratch defense at an important position doesn’t count in most fantasy leagues, Cabrera will most likely give back most of his value gained from stolen bases in his poor batting average and utter lack of power.

Minnesota Twins recalled SS Trevor Plouffe from Triple-A Rochester.

Plouffe, who will turn 24 in June, was the 20th overall pick in the 2004 draft. The California prep product touched the low-90’s on the mound, but the Twins liked his potential to develop into a quality defender at a premium position and handed him a $1.5 million bonus.

During his first three years in pro ball, Plouffe scuffled at the plate. He hit .283/.340/.380 in the Rookie-Level Appalachian League in ’04, then followed up with a .223/.300/.345 triple-slash in the Low-A Midwest League in 2005 and a .246/.333/.347 line in the High-A State Florida State League in 2006. Plouffe showed a decent eye in A-Ball, walking in about 10 percent of his plate appearances, but he didn’t hit with much authority.

Upon reaching the upper levels of the minors, Plouffe has taken more of a grip-it-and-rip-it approach. At the Double-A level, he batted .272/.326/.410, walking just 6.7 percent and bumping his Isolated Power to a still-modest .129. In Triple-A, Plouffe has an overall .267/.317/.427 line. He has drawn a walk 6.5 percent, with a .160 ISO.

While he has mostly played shortstop, Plouffe has also dabbled at second and third base to improve his appeal as a big league utility man. With Minnesota, Plouffe will provide an extra infield glove while J.J. Hardy (wrist) continues his rehab. The odds of Plouffe becoming a solid every day starter appear slim at this point, as his shortstop D hasn’t been as advertised and his bat projects as below-average–CHONE and ZiPS both had sub-.300 wOBA forecasts for him prior to 2010.

Milwaukee Brewers placed C Gregg Zaun (strained right shoulder) on the DL; purchased the contract of C Jonathan Lucroy

The Brew Crew’s third-round pick in the 2007 draft, Lucroy has generally shown fantastic plate discipline and mid-range pop during his minor league career. The Louisiana-Lafayette product, who will also turn 24 in June, beat up on less experienced pitching in the Rookie-Level Pioneer League in 2007. He then hit a combined .301/.377/.495 between the Low-A South Atlantic League and the High-A Florida State League in 2008, walking in 10.6 percent of his PA with a .194 ISO.

Last year, Lucroy moved up to the Double-A Southern League and posted a .267/.380/.418 line. His power declined against more advanced hurlers (.151 ISO), but he drew a free pass 15.4 percent of the time while lowering his K rate from 17.7 in ’08 to 15.6 in ’09.

He began 2010 back at Huntsville, but earned a promotion to the Triple-A Pacific Coast League after getting off to a .452/.500/.524 start in 47 PA. With Nashville, Lucroy has struggled in a small sample (.238/.265/.363 in 83 PA). If there’s any concern, it’s that he hasn’t shown his typically discerning eye: he has walked just 5.3 percent between the two levels. Given his track record, it’s probably just a blip on the radar.

Lucroy’s defense has drawn mixed reviews–before 2010, Baseball America said he “needs to improve his game-calling skills,” and that “scouts are divided over whether Lucroy projects as a regular or a backup in the majors.” For what it’s worth, Lucroy’s D rates well according to Sean Smith’s Total Zone system.

Prior to the season kicking off, CHONE projected a .250/.337/.382 line (.322 wOBA) in the bigs for Lucroy, while ZiPS envisioned a .245/.326/.378 (.316 wOBA) triple-slash. With Zaun out, Lucroy will get whatever playing time doesn’t go to George Kottaras. The former Padres and Red Sox prospect has a .237/.336/.402 rest-of-season ZiPS projection, with a .331 wOBA.

Don’t expect to see Asdrubal Cabrera take the field again anytime soon, as the switch-hitting shortstop suffered a broken left forearm last evening against the Rays. Cabrera collided with 3B Jhonny Peralta on a Hank Blalock ground ball hit up the middle (the infield was shifted for the lefty pull hitter). There’s no firm estimate on how much time he’ll miss, but Cabrera is likely headed for surgery.

The former M’s prospect was off to a mild start in 2010, batting .287/.322/.368 (.303 wOBA) in 149 plate appearances. Cabrera’s plate discipline was off-kilter, as he swung at 28.5 percent of pitches outside of the zone and took a hack at just 59.6 percent of in-zone pitches. For comparison, Cabrera’s career O-Swing is 24.7, and his Z-Swing is 65.7. Chasing more offerings off the dish and keeping the bat on the shoulder more often when the pitcher puts one in the strike zone is a recipe for fewer walks, and Cabrera’s rate of free passes taken was down to 4.7. Also, after nabbing 17 bases in 21 tries in 2009, Cabrera had just one SB and 2 CS in 2010.

In his place, the Indians will turn to a combination of Luis Valbuena and the recently recalled Jason Donald.

Valbuena, 24, has a career .235/.301/.387 triple-slash in 544 major league PA. The lefty hitter, himself a former Mariner, has shown decent secondary skills for a middle infielder (8.3 BB%, .152 ISO).

However, Valbuena has punched out 24.3 percent of the time and he has a track record of scuffling against southpaw pitching. During his minor league career, Valbuena had a .241/.319/.311 line vs. LHP. His managers have gone to great lengths to shield him from lefties in the majors: just 12 percent of his big league PA have come against same-side pitching. Questionable D at the keystone won’t help his big for more playing time, either (career -9.3 UZR/150 at 2B, and ugly numbers at short in a small sample of playing time). ZiPS projects a .247/.317/.377 line for Valbuena for the rest of the 2010 season, with a .308 wOBA.

Donald, meanwhile, was a part of the underwhelming collection of talent Cleveland acquired from Philadelphia in exchange for Cliff Lee in July of 2009. The Arizona product has a career .284/.371/.434 line as a minor leaguer, with a 10.3 percent walk rate, a 23 percent K rate and a .150 Isolated Power. Donald was off to a .277/.396/.423 start at Triple-A Columbus in 2010. Neither ZiPS (.290 wOBA) nor CHONE (.299 wOBA) had especially sunny major league forecasts for him.

The 25-year-old ranked as Baseball America’s #69 prospect prior to 2009, but he missed time with left knee and back injuries last year and slipped to 15th in the Indians’ system before 2010. Almost exclusively a shortstop before this season, Donald had mostly been playing second base with Columbus. BA called him a “fringy defensive shortstop whose range and overall defensive skill set might be better suited for second base.”

While the Tribe will turn to Valbuena and Donald, fantasy owners seeking to fill the void created by Cabrera’s injury should look elsewhere. Shortstops with low Yahoo ownership rates include: Everth Cabrera (11%), Alcides Escobar (13%) and Ian Desmond (14%, and also has 2B eligibility). Maicer Izturis (19%) qualifies at short, second and third, and he could nab a good chunk of Brandon Wood’s playing time at the hot corner once he returns from a shoulder injury.

New York Mets shortstop Jose Reyes has long been a fantasy stalwart due to his sizzling speed and surprising pop. After a lost 2009 season in which the switch-hitter injured his right hamstring and played his last ball game in late May, fantasy players were hoping to get a discount on an electric talent in 2010. To this point, though, Reyes is hitting more like Rey Ordonez.

Since making his season debut on April 10 (he opened the year on the DL with a thyroid imbalance), Reyes has hit a feeble .215/.267/.289 in 146 plate appearances. His wOBA is .260, and he has yet to go deep in 2010. Jose has eight steals, but that doesn’t matter much when you’re showing the offensive skills of Willie Mays Hayes. What’s going on here?

The first thing that stands out is Reyes’ lack of patience at the plate. This season, the 26-year-old has hacked at 35.5 percent of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone, about 10 percent higher than his career mark and well above the 27.2 percent MLB average in 2010. That free-swinging approach has produced a 5.5 percent walk rate, Reyes’ lowest figure since 2005.

Perhaps recognizing Jose’s expanded zone, opposing pitchers aren’t tossing him many strikes: just 39.5 percent of Reyes’ pitches seen have been within the strike zone. That’s far lower than his career 52.7 percent average and the 47.9 percent MLB average.

Swinging at so many bad pitches, Reyes has made little forceful contact. His Isolated Power is .074, slightly more than half of his career .145 mark. Reyes is getting jammed a lot, as his infield/fly ball rate is 19.1 percent. His career rate is 11.7 percent, and the MLB average is around 7-8 percent. Reyes is making less contact, too, putting the bat on the ball 82.7 percent (85.9 percent career average, 80-81% MLB average). His K rate is a career-high 15.6 percent.

During his big league career, Reyes has hit line drives at a 20.2 percent rate. In 2010, just 13.9 percent of his batted balls have been classified as liners. As mentioned in the discussion of Chone Figgins‘ rough start to 2010, the classification of line drives can be tricky. But liners have a .731 batting average and a .990 slugging percentage in the NL this season. Relative to his career batted ball averages, Reyes has swapped 6-7% of his line drives for infield fly balls, which are near-automatic outs. That’s a trade that no hitter wants to make.

Though there are plenty of negative trends here, Reyes has been somewhat unlucky on balls put in play. His BABIP is .252, while his expected BABIP (based on home runs, strikeouts, stolen bases, line drives, fly balls, pop ups and ground balls) is .290. In particular, the speedy Reyes has a .196 batting average on ground balls, compared to a .269 career average. He also won’t keep hitting .116 and slugging .140 on fly balls (his career marks are .195 and .477, respectively).

Jose Reyes is a mess at the plate. But fantasy owners can do little else but wait — he’s far too talented to trade away for sixty or seventy cents on the dollar. For non-owners, this wouldn’t be a bad time to make an offer. Perhaps you can pick Reyes up at a discount from someone whose patience has run thin. The Mets’ shortstop still has the potential to be an all-around force, but he’ll have to stop swinging with reckless abandon to regain that elite status.

An interesting question came through the interwebbings in general and the rotographs mailbag in particular:

Normally, it is the other owners who panic and drop someone good but struggling, and I pick them up. But Gordon Beckham hasn’t done much of anything so far this season. There has been no stretch to give me hope. I am buoyed by the fact that he has 9 walks in recent games, but the 8 K’s that go along with it is still on the high side, and in any case, walks don’t count in my league and he isn’t hitting for much of anything.

Mike Aviles, Ian Desmond, Alberto Callaspo, and Starlin Castro are all available on my waiver wire. I already have Ben Zobrist and Elvis Andrus filling MI positions plus Pablo Sandoval manning 3B, so I’m covered while Beckham struggles. I need HR and RBI and thus why I hold onto Beckham so far. What do you recommend?

-M

This is a unique situation. While M is “set” at middle infield, Zobrist and Sandoval are struggling and holding on to Beckham means those players have to start through the struggles. If M wants to keep on chugging, he’d be best served by picking up one of the hotter middle infielders on the wire – most likely one of the Royals. But even if this is the move, who is the dropper? He’d want to drop the guy with the least upside, in order to keep upside on the bench. And since Panda and Andrus are virtually dripping with upside, we turn to Zobrist and Beckham as the most likely droppers. Let’s compare them to Aviles and Callaspo to get an idea of where to go. (For those touting Castro, I’ll say that the .111 minor league ISO removes him from home run consideration despite the hot streak so far.)

Let’s begin by using the ZiPs RoS projections as an eyeball test:

Zobrist .263/.356/.431 with 11 HR, 11 SB
Beckham .257/.330/.422 with 14 HR, 8 SB

Aviles .284/.313/.412 with 6 HR, 4 SB
Callaspo .293/.347/.427 with 7 HR, 2 SB

The eyeball test says he’s got the players with the most upside on his team right now. Though the batting averages of the guys on the wire are useful, M owns Fat Ichiro and would seemingly not need batting average as much as the counting stats. In fact, that may end the discussion right there… if not for the interim problem of being stuck with two struggling middle infielders, and the question of Beckham.

We’ve talked about how few statistics are significant in such a small sample size, but it’s the swing rates that stabilize the quickest. Well, Beckham is reaching slightly more (28.9% this year, 24.8% last year), but he’s swinging about the same overall (46.0% this year, 46.9% last year) and making similar contact (79.7% this year, 80.1% last year). The reaching is a little worrisome, but Beckham has always been a reasonably disciplined hitter with average walk rates (7.3% in the minors, 11.6% in college), and the difference is not so great that it suggests that Beckham is broken.

Instead, let’s point to two numbers that stabilize the slowest that suggest that Beckham will be okay. He owns a .241 BABIP (.279 career) and a .061 ISO (.160 career), and both of those numbers take more than 400+ plate appearances to become significant.

In this last bit of analysis lies the last wrinkle: Beckham has just barely passed the career threshold to make his ISO significant. In other words, he’s just now accrued enough plate appearances that his .160 career ISO predicts his future ISO at a 70% level. He did have a .197 ISO in the minor leagues, but he wouldn’t be the first player to experience a power dip upon entering the bigs. Since his speed is suspect (60% success rate career), if his power takes a dive, he’s obviously the dropper on this team. So M, if you are feeling antsy and want some batting average in the short term, it all depends on how strong your stomach is. But you’ve got all the upside on your team currently, and that’s usually the best way to go.

Mired in a three game losing streak, the Cubs shook things up last week by shifting Ryan Theriot to second base and calling upon top prospect Starlin Castro to assume shortstop duties. Bryan ranked him as the 25th best prospect in the game coming into the season, then introduced you to him on Friday, so let’s not reinvent the wheel and instead focus on what his arrival means for you fantasy owners.

Castro debuted in a huge way, whacking a three run homer in his first big league plate appearance before ripping a bases clearing triple later in the game, making him the first player in history to pick up six RBI in his debut. And that’s on top of being the youngest shortstop in Cubs’ history. It was without a doubt an impressive debut, and as things like that tend to do, it sent more than one owner scrambled to the waiver wire to gobble him up before anyone else did.

CHONE projects a .251/.290/.339 batting line (.280 wOBA by my calculation) with three homers and 14 steals this year, and a projection like that would have him outside of the top 16 fantasy shortstops. Unfortunately for your fantasy team, a big chunk of his value comes from his ability to field a premium position, which does nothing for you unless you’re in a league that counts UZR or +/- (that would be pretty cool).

Even if we want to dream a little bit and say that Castro will instead approach the league average .326 wOBA with 15 or so steals the rest of the year, it puts him on fantasy par with guys like Alexei Ramirez and (not to mix positions, but) Luis Castillo. Basically backup options in mixed leagues or second and third tier starting options in deep mixed or AL/NL-only leagues. However, I look at Castro and think he compares favorably to another NL Central rookie shortstop: Alcides Escobar.

For whatever reason, Escobar has gone from a 20+ SB threat to zero (and just one attempt) through the season’s first month. He says he’s going to steal more, but it hasn’t happened yet. ZiPS sees a .271 AVG with 18 SB and five homers the rest of the way, and I think Castro could give you almost exactly that as well. If anything, I’d expect just a little more pop from the Cubs’ shortstop because of his home park. 20-year-olds are tricky to project, so there’s a whole lotta dreamin’ that has to go on here.

Castro set the bar high in his big league debut, but he’s done a good job of following that up and has reached base in all four games he’s played. If you’re a frustrated Escobar owner, swapping him out with Castro could net you those steals you thought you were getting, and maybe even a little more. He’s owned in just 10% of Yahoo! leagues, so chances are he’s still available in yours as well.

Today while Andruw Jones is busting out the whoop-stick, we’ll bust out the in-season wOBA (and add ZiPS Ros wOBA) and go back to see what’s going on at shortstop. Enjoy the weekend!

The Big Four:
1. Hanley Ramirez, Florida (.349 wOBA, .404 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
2. Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado (.338 wOBA, .362 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
3. Jimmy Rollins, Philadelphia (.526 wOBA, .355 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
4. Derek Jeter, New York AL (.381 wOBA, .361 ZiPS RoS wOBA)

If the season ended today, Jeter would have the best ISO he’s had in eleven years(!), so it’s safe to say that he may even approach his career high in home runs this year (24). A twenty-twenty season would make Jeter a solid top option, and depending on Rollins’ final batting average and steals total, and Tulowitzki’s home run total, he may even be a top-3 shortstop by the end of the year. Not bad for a guy that went at the end of the third round in the spring.

The Next Best Thing:
5. Jose Reyes, New York NL (.285 wOBA, .361 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
6. Stephen Drew, Arizona (.377 wOBA, .341 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
7. Rafael Furcal, Los Angeles NL (.369 wOBA, .331 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
8. Elvis Andrus, Texas (.344 wOBA, .342 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
9. Ben Zobrist, Tampa Bay (.322 wOBA, .352wOBA)
10. Jason Bartlett, Tampa Bay (.306 wOBA, .333 ZiPS RoS wOBA)

Elvis Andrus and Rafael Furcal are the big winners this week. Furcal moves up just by being healthy another two weeks and stealing a few bases, while Andrus is doing some really nice things in this young season. He’s got a great line drive percentage and is walking 17% of the time – there’s a chance he betters his batting average yet. Also, he’s stolen enough bases to say that he could easily best his ZiPS updated projection of 35 steals. If he can nudge that average up just a little higher, he has the upside left to lead this tier, or at least join Drew and Reyes at the top.

Bartlett falls and is honestly in danger of dropping from this tier entirely. His ZiPS updated projection only calls for a .280 average and 19 steals now, and those aren’t scintillating numbers. The worst thing about his season so far is that most of his secondary statistics are more in line with his pre-2009 career. Zobrist enters the list ahead of him because he still has more power upside even if he’s not showing it right now.

The Leftovers:
11. Asdrubal Cabrera, Cleveland (.324 wOBA, .335 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
12. Miguel Tejada, Baltimore (.364 wOBA, .341 ZiPS wOBA)
13. Marco Scutaro, Boston (.324 wOBA, .355 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
14. Ryan Theriot, Cubs (.339 wOBA, .333 ZIPS RoS wOBA)
15. Alexei Ramirez, Chicago AL (.242 wOBA, .327 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
16. Alcides Escobar, Milwaukee (.300 wOBA, .315 ZiPS RoS wOBA)

Though there is a lot of movement in this tier, the big news here is that Erick Aybar drops off the list. I know he was moving up in the ranking, and I was guilty of the same sort of Aybar love in the pre-season, but a frank look at his statistics doesn’t offer much hope for his traditional roto stats this year. See, the thing is, he obviously has almost no power (.096 ISO career) and even his speed is suspect. He only came up with 14 steals last year, one so far this year, and his speed score is currently below average. If he doesn’t better last year’s steals total, has no power, and is now showing that his batting average is also no given, well, then, he’s not so interesting, is he? I’ll take Escobar’s upside because of his wheels, even if he doesn’t yet have a stolen base.

Theriot’s strong play (though utterly powerless (.050 ISO)) earns him a spot on the list at the cost of the scuffling Yunel Escobar. The other (other) Escobar’s lack of real power or speed, and his steps back in batted ball profile, limit his upside anyway.