With so many articles discussing players and fantasy strategies to help advance you in the standings this year, it’s time to throw a bone to those in keeper leagues that are out of contention in 2011 and are already thinking about what to do in 2012.  Remember the game “Would You Rather…?”  I’m sure most of you do, but if you don’t, it’s simple.  You’re given two choices — sometimes both really good and sometimes both absolutely horrific.  Either way, you are obligated to pick one over the other.  Well, this is going to be an ongoing keeper league series now in which you’re given two options of which player you’d rather keep for the following season.  Since we’re in Erik Hahmann’s regular shortstop article time slot, we’ll begin there…

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Let me preface this by saying that Yuniesky Betancourt is not a good player. He’s been worth 2.8 WAR in 3475 plate appearances. That’s horrendous. In purely fantasy terms he’s never been particularly good either. He doesn’t hit for power, or run, or hit for a high average, or get on base. But, because he can play shortstop, not very well mind you, teams have given him over 500 plate appearances a season five years running.

He began this season just like any other, i.e. badly. In May he hit .176/.200/.289. Things started to come around in June as his OPS for the month ended at .690. Then it was summer time and Yuni was livin’ easy. He had a great July, for him, hitting .299 with a .752 OPS and 13 runs and 13 RBI. He’s carried that over into July as well as his .953 OPS would attest. To make it simple, over the last 30 days he’s hit .380 with 3 HR, 20 RBI and even 2 SB. Only four other shortstops have been better than Yuni over that time: Troy Tulowitzki, Jimmy Rollins, Asdrubal Cabrera and J.J. Hardy. Those four are owned in over 70 percent of leagues while our man Yuni sits at just 28 percent. He’s hit so well that even noted fantasy writer Jason Collette traded Jason Motte for him a few weeks ago.

We all know that the shortstop position is as shallow as a kiddie pool. Any unexpected production is welcomed with open arms. He’s not likely to keep this up until the rest of the season, but if you have a void at shortstop, or own a slumping player like Elvis Andrus or Alexei Ramirez, it’s worth overlooking the name and trying to cash in on the hot streak while you can. Another player in a similar situation to Yuni’s is Cliff Pennington. He’s owned in just seven percent of leagues but has hit .342/2HR/13RBI/2SB over the past month. Unlike Betancourt he’s been a good hitter relative to his position in his short career, so it may be more than a fluke.

Betancourt may not get many more hot streaks like this. Do him a favor and pick him up. He’s been a punching bag for so long that I’m sure he’d appreciate seeing his ownership percentage tick up over the 30% barrier.

At the MLB trade deadline, the Los Angeles Dodgers sent veteran shortstop Rafael Furcal and cash considerations to the St. Louis Cardinals in exchange for minor league outfielder Alex Castellanos.  Tommy Rancel, over in the FanGraphs section, covered the deal when it happened, so now here at RotoGraphs, we’re going to discuss the fantasy ramifications. Read the rest of this entry »

It may not seem like it, but even the most minor MLB trade can have an impact on your fantasy season. While your fantasy outlook shouldn’t change on guys like Ubaldo Jimenez, Michael Bourn or Hunter Pence; value can be found in lesser deals — where players are given new opportunities at playing time. Two recently traded players that may fit that description are Brandon Allen and Jerry Hairston Jr. Will they play a significant role in the last few weeks of your fantasy season?
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Asdrubal Cabrera has always shown the ability to hit the ball, but he is hitting significantly more home runs this season. His fantasy owners will be happy to know that there are signs that the increase in power looks sustainable.

In 1610 PA before this season, he hit 18 home runs, or 1 every 89 PA. This season, the twenty-five year old has almost equaled his career total in only 445 PA with 17 HRs — or 1 every 26 PA. These new home runs have really increased his value, especially since he is a shortstop. By looking at his contact rate, batted ball profile, batted ball angle and distance, let’s try to determine if the increase is from luck or a change in his ability.

Contact – The switch hitter is making contact 1% more often this season when compared to his career numbers. He is putting a few more balls into play, but not a significant percentage more.

Batted Ball Profile – Cabrera is definitely hitting more fly balls this season when compared to his previous 4 seasons. In those 4 seasons, he hit an FB 32% of the time. In 2011, that value is at 37%.

Hitting 5% points more fly balls will definitely help increase his HR total, but not to the level to triple the number hit. The key is not that he is hitting more FB, but about half as many of the FB (13.8%) are going for HR’s compared to his career numbers (7.2%).

Batted Ball Direction – Using the direction that the ball is hit, we can decide if he is turning on the ball more and putting it in the short porches in left and right field. Using an angle with -45 degrees as the left field line and 45 degrees as the right field line, the average direction of his fly balls and home runs can be determined. Since he is a switch hitter, the the average angles from both sides of the plate need to be examined (most of his home runs are from the left side of the plate):

Batting Right Handed (angle in degrees)
2007 = -3
2008 = +3
2009 = +9
2010 = -7
2011 = +8

Batting Left Handed
2007 = -6
2008 = -4
2009 = -5
2010 = -4
2011 = 0

Looking at when he is hitting right handed, he is definitely not pulling the ball more. Most of his home runs, 13 of the 17, have come when he is batting left handed where he is pulling the ball more this season then in any previous season. It is not a whole lot, but enough to make a difference.

Batted Ball Distance: Besides the angle, the actual distance the ball travels can be examined for when he hits left and right handed

Distance (in feet)

Bating Right Handed
2007 = 270 ft
2008 = 269 ft
2009 = 273 ft
2010 = 273 ft
2011 = 281 ft

Batting Left Handed
2007 = 281 ft
2008 = 276 ft
2009 = 300 ft
2010 = 273 ft
2011 = 286 ft

In 2011, Cabrera hit the ball further than in any season except for one year. He is generally hitting the ball around 10 ft further in 2011 than in the past from either side of the plate.

Conclusion: Even though Cabrera is making the same amount of contact with the baseball compared to past seasons, he is hitting more fly balls, hitting them further and towards the OF corners. The rise in home runs per fly ball may seem a bit high for Cabrera, but there are signs that the increase seen this season is not all luck.

As you’re tweaking your lineup here and there, looking for a way to steal some points from your opponents, check out how adding some stolen bases to your squad can help you out.  It always seems to be a very movable category in roto leagues and an often disregarded category in head to head.  Adding an extra stolen base guy can give you a nice cheap way to to boost you in the category while also helping you out in areas like runs scored and even batting average.  Here’s a pair of speedsters that seem to be available in plenty of leagues. Read the rest of this entry »

It has been just about a year since Jhonny Peralta was dealt from the Cleveland Indians to the Detroit Tigers. It was July 28th, 2010, and Peralta was continuing his slide from the previous season where he saw his production fall in every meaningful category. His work ethic and conditioning were often criticized and given that his listed weight had gone from 180 pounds to a suck-in-your-tummy 215, his future at shortstop seemed rather dubious.

Cleveland had decided that Peralta wasn’t going to be worth the $7.25 million option they had on him for 2011 and the Tigers decided that having half their team on the trainers table wasn’t getting them any closer to a pennant. And thus, the “other” Giovanni Soto was sent to Cleveland for an underwhelming Peralta, hitting just .246 with seven home runs over 91 games. The general reaction was a bit of a shrug of the shoulders.

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Zack Cozart | SS, Reds | 4% Owned (Y!) | 4% Owned (ESPN)
Prior to hyperextending his elbow during Saturday’s game against the Braves, Cincinnati Reds’ shortstop Zack Cozart was providing his ball club with great production in an area of need. Initial x-rays of Cozart’s arm came back negative, and while we don’t have a definitive time table for a return, his injury was much less serious than it could have been.

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By now you’ve probably heard. Diamondbacks’ shortstop Stephen Drew will miss the rest of the season after fracturing his ankle sliding into home last night, an injury that was Jason Kendall-esque. I was actually watching the game live and it was pretty gruesome, and since I’m a bit of a softie I won’t link to the video here. I’m sure the FanGraphs’ faithful can find if it you’re so inclined.

Anyway, Drew was one of fantasy baseball’s better shortstops, a position lacking depth. His .252/.317/.396 batting line is unspectacular, but he had the fourth most RBI (45) among players at the position. It’s safe to drop him off your roster entirely given the nature of his injury and expected timetable, so let’s try to dig up some replacements…

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It’s been awhile since we’ve done one of these. Let’s get right to it and take a look at some shortstop performances over the past two weeks.

Risers:

Hanley Ramirez

He’s actually steadily improved every month, but even his improvements were still far less than we’ve come to expect from Ramirez. His wOBA by month are .245, .312, .324, .516. Needless to say, July has been pretty kind to him. In his 61 plate appearances this month he’s hitting .392/.492/.706 with 4 HR, 17 RBI, and 7 K to 10 BB. The four home runs tie his high for a month this year and the 17 RBI are already eight more than he had back in April. It’s only been 61 plate appearances but it looks like Ramirez may finally be turning the corner we’ve all been waiting for. For all of us who have stuck by him this entire season I sure hope that’s the case.

Jeff Keppinger

His month of June was actually pretty amazing. He hit .297 in 105 plate appearances, but only managed a .681 OPS. He was the definition of an empty batting average. So far his July is pretty amazing as well. In his 42 plate appearances he has a 0.0% walk rate and 0.0% strikeout rate. Somehow he’s been able to run into two homers and banged out three doubles, giving him one less extra base hit than he had in June. He’s never hit for much power over his career, but has been able to maintain a decent enough average to retain value in deeper mixed or NL only leagues. He’s currently hitting .314 and is available in 93% of Yahoo! leagues.

Fallers

Starlin Castro

When Castro isn’t hitting for average he provides very little to your lineup. He doesn’t hit for any power and doesn’t walk enough to pick up any steals. This month he’s hit just .236 with zero steals and zero home runs. His strikeout rate has ballooned to 21.4% in 56 plate appearances. For someone that is owned in 91% of leagues you need better production out of him. If someone like Keppinger is available in your league you may be better off adding him until Castro can get back to his normal self.

Alexei Ramirez

They’re having shortstop issues on the south side of Chicago as well. Ramirez has been falling since June, putting up a .265/.311/.343 triple slash line with 1 HR and 11 RBI that month. That was after a hot May in which he posted a .389 wOBA. Unfortunately for him, he seems to have carried over the woes of June into July. He’s hitting .217 in the month, and while he does have two home runs his OBP is a horrible .265. The worst part about his season has been the lack of stolen bases. Ramirez had averaged 13 in his first three seasons but has only three so far, meaning he’s unlikely to reach double digits which severely damages his fantasy worth.