As you all are aware by now, us Rotographers held a very early mock draft this past Sunday. The team has done a great job breaking down and analyzing the selections at the respective positions they cover. Now, it’s my turn to take a look at the shortstop selections. I’m not going to talk about every player picked, only the ones I found interesting.
R1 P1: Troy Tulowitzki
R1 P11: Hanley Ramirez
R2 P7: Jose Reyes
It wasn’t the resigning the team, or fans, had hoped for last week, but Rafael Furcal’s return to the Cardinals is an important one.
It’s important for the Cardinals because they’re going to contend for a division title despite the loss of Albert Pujols, and Furcal is better than nearly every alternative currently on the market. It’s important for the fantasy owner because now the Cardinals may actually have a viable fantasy option at shortstop. It’s a position that is among the weakest in baseball and no team knows that better than St. Louis. Last season Ryan Theriot played 91 games at short before the addition of Furcal pushed him aside, hitting .267/.313/.323 with one home run – his only all season. The 2010 season saw Brendan Ryan come to the plate a remarkable 482 times while playing shortstop. I say remarkable because he hit .223/.279/.294, good for a .573 OPS, third lowest in baseball. Not even his stellar glove should have kept him in the lineup that often.
While we aren’t sure whether or not Hanley Ramirez is going to stick around in Miami now that Jose Reyes has come to town to take over the shortstop gig, but if he stays in South Florida, how does the Reyes’ signing affect Hanley’s fantasy value?
It’s a safe bet that Hanley’s HR and batting average aren’t likely to be affected by Reyes’, but other aspects of his fantasy value will undergo some slight changes. Let’s look at them, shall we?
The Marlins’ addition of Jose Reyes not only affects the 29-year-old shortstop, but also has a great impact on two other Miami players.
In October I penned a piece about Jose Reyes’ outlook for the 2012 season, focusing on a few factors that could be a burden or boon to his overall performance, specifically his health and the location of his new team. The health issue should be the biggest concern to fantasy owners and has been well documented so I’ll be brief. From 2005-2008 he averaged 158 games played. He hasn’t topped 133 the last three seasons. Unless his hamstrings magically heal over the offseason it’s nearly a guarantee that he’ll miss time. When healthy he’s a constant source of steals, runs and batting average from the thinnest position on the diamond. That’s first round talent.
Over the last week or so we’ve done plenty of articles discussing the impending move of the Houston Astros to the American League and how it will impact those in the fantasy baseball community. But no matter how many times we attempt to look on the bright side and find the silver lining in it all, there’s one common thing that seems to come through in every piece. It’s like that early montage in the movie Major League where the Indians’ fan base is looking at their 40 man roster in disbelief — from some guy asking who Mitchell Friedman is to the groundskeepers’ claims that “these guys are sh*tty”. There’s almost no love for the 2012 Astros and very little hope for the club moving forward. However, just like the old fantasy adage (is there such a thing?) that states that even closers on bad teams can be good and helpful, the same can be said about everyday players from Houston. Just because the team is in relative shambles, doesn’t mean that you can’t find some helpful players at a bargain cost.
One of the stranger deals of the off-season was signed a few days ago as Clint Barmes inked a two year, $10.5 million contract with the Pittsburgh Pirates. As a young team with limited financial resources it looks like a bad allocation of funds. To make room for Barmes they declined a $3 million option on Ronny Cedeno, who should put up similar offensive production for far less risk. Despite his obvious shortcomings, Barmes has real fantasy value, which illustrates just how bereft of talent the shortstop position is.
It’s the early offseason. Very few free agents have signed, and no trades have been completed. The GMs are in Milwaukee without internet and with wintry mix. The winter meetings are still a week or two away. Perfect time for a mock draft, or at least so thought Derek Van Riper at RotoWire. So he got us all together for a 15-team 30-round NFBC-style colossus of a mock draft last week — here are the results for your own perusal.
There are a million ways to break down a draft, so if you want more on this, let me know. to keep it simple at first, let’s just highlight some picks that seemed like the steals and reaches of the draft.
The Twins have landed one of the absolute prizes of free agency in Jamey Carroll, who will be one of the keys to their rebuilding effort under new/old GM Terry Ryan and… What, you’re not buying Carroll as a major difference maker, the first real catch of the free agent period? Ok, I can’t say I blame you.
Free agency hasn’t always been the Twins’ strength, no matter who the GM was. Mike Lamb, Rondell White, Tony Batista, Nick Punto at $4 million a year, everyone has their favorite foible, but to be frank, I don’t see Carroll falling into that category. A lot of the dislike for this deal I saw on Twitter today centers around two things: First, that he was given a multiyear deal and second, that he’ll be the team’s starting shortstop.
Those following the shortstop keeper posts have noticed Hanley Ramirez’s absence. Excluding Ramirez was intentional, as his ranking process deserves its own post.
From 2007-2010 he dominated the shortstop position, and fantasy baseball as a whole. Ramirez hit .319/.394/.532 and averaged 26 home runs, 82 runs batted in, and 36 stolen bases. Entering 2011, Ramirez’s production had made him a no-doubt top tier choice year in and out. Exiting 2011, Ramirez is something of a question mark. In addition to a .712 OPS, Ramirez missed the final two months after having surgery to repair his right shoulder—the same shoulder that was operated on after the 2007 season. Ramirez reportedly injured the shoulder diving for a ball in early August, but missed 15 games in June with sciatica and numbness issues. Seemingly healthy, Ramirez looked like his old self in abusing the month of July to the tune of an .896 OPS, providing no answers to whether the sciatica issue relented, or if something else contributed to his poor first three months.
Ramirez did improve each month, although, it’s hard not to when you put up a .558 OPS in April and .666 in May with his talent level. Concerning is Ramirez’s continued decline in power. His isolated power dipped from .239 in 2008 to .175 in 2010, with a .201 offering in 2009. Reports suggest Ramirez is hale and hearty, but it’s hard to be optimistic that a player with two shoulder surgeries and a steady decline in power output is going to bounce back to form.
So, where does that leave Ramirez? If you think he rebounds to an MVP caliber level once again you’d obviously put him in the first tier. What if, like me, you have reservations? I’m inclined to believe he belongs in the second tier with Asdrubal Cabrera, Starlin Castro, Elvis Andrus and Jimmy Rollins. There are some pessimists out there; would placing him in tier three along with Emilio Bonifacio, J.J. Hardy and Jhonny Peralta make sense? A reasonable argument can be made for each scenario, and that means Ramirez, who is a polarizing figure in the real world, is now the subject of much debate in fantasy, too.
I know a lot of you have been asking about Hanley Ramirez’s whereabouts in these tiers. I’ve purposely excluded him simply because I honestly don’t know where to include him. I’ll have a whole discussion on his rank come Friday. You can hurl your insults at me then. For now, on to Tier Four.
There may not be a more consistently mediocre hitter than Ramirez. Over the last three seasons his wOBA’s are .319, .322 and .319. He’s hit 15, 18 and 15 home runs. He’s driven in 68, 70 and 70 runs. His stolen base total was cut in half this past season, but from 2008-2010 it was 13, 14 and 13. It’s safe to say he likes duplicates. His plate discipline and batted ball numbers have been steady as well. He’s not a star and really doesn’t have the potential to be one. What is he? He’s an average shortstop who benefits from playing in a hitter friendly park. There will be no surprises one way or another in keeping Ramirez.
Speaking of average shortstops, Escobar fits that bill nicely. Where Alexei Ramirez is lacking in average and on-base-percentage, those are areas Escobar does well. I’m overlooking his 2010 season for a number of reasons. Excluding that year he’s never hit below .288 nor had an on-base-percentage under .366. His career 54.9 percent ground ball rate takes away any power potential he may possess. He was greatly helped by the Rogers Centre in 2011, hitting .321/.416/.480 there; a .226 point difference in OPS from his road games. Escobar was a pleasant surprise in 2011, flying under the radar and going later than he probably should have in most drafts due to his rocky 2010. He’s the last of the shortstops you should consider keeping.
The only asset Escobar possesses on the offensive side of things is his speed. He stole 26 bases last season and has stolen as many as 42 at the Triple-A level. He had some hot streaks last season, posting a .357 wOBA in June and a .372 in September. In the other four months he failed to muster anything higher than a .278. If you’ve drafted properly Escobar shouldn’t be starting over any other shortstop you have in a standard league. Unless you’re desperate for steals, he’s more of a bench player and profiles to a fringe starter in deeper leagues.
Ian Desmond $4
Being a slightly better version of Alcides Escobar isn’t a compliment. They each cannot hit for average or take a walk, but Desmond hits for more power, granted he’s not exactly Tulowitzki-like in that category. Unlike Escobar he failed to have any exceedingly good months, peaking with a wOBA of .348, otherwise riding along in the sea of obscurity. He has a minor league track record of hitting success, but in his two full MLB seasons that has yet to translate. There’s double digit home run potential and he’ll steal you ~20 bases, but he’s below par in runs, runs batted in, average and on-base-percentage.
