Erick Aybar is a perennial sleeper. You might make a joke about never waking up here, except that just last year he hit ten home runs and stole thirty bases and looked like a reasonable starting shortstop in every fantasy league. This year’s work was a step back — only eight home runs and 20 stolen bases — and left him on the outside of the top twelve in our end-of-season rankings.

Here’s the thing though. He was still a decent starting-level shortstop in most leagues — when he was in the lineup.

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Asdrubal Cabrera was a popular regression candidate around these parts entering last season. Prior to 2011, Cabrera was a middle-of-the-road fantasy shortstop. He hit for a decent average, popped a handful of home runs and stole a fair amount of bases. He wasn’t going to kill you at the position, but if you ended up with Cabrera, it was obvious you waited to draft a shortstop. His 25 home run breakout altered that perception. With that, of course, came questions of whether it was a fluke. And though Cabrera did see some regression in the home run category, a fair amount of the strides he made in 2011 stuck.

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How often does a 22 year old actually perform basically right in line with pre-season expectations? Well, Starlin Castro pretty much did just that this season. According to Zach Sanders’ calculator, he earned $18, ranking him 5th among shortstops. Our RotoGraphs consensus rankings slotted him fourth, so Castro did what he was supposed to. Top players are certainly expected to be consistent year in and year out, but this was only Castro’s third full season, so really, a major breakout or a flop wouldn’t have been too surprising. So what does the future hold for young Starlin?

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The 2012 fantasy baseball season has come to a close, so it is time to look back at the season past and determine which players were the most valuable at each position. This week focuses on shortstops.

The players were ranked based on their 2012 production, using the evaluation system explained and updated on this site some time ago. To keep things manageable and avoid skewing the numbers, players were only considered if they amassed 350 plate appearances over the course of the year. The replacement level was also adjusted to account for players eligible at multiple positions. The valuations are built for $260 budgets and traditional 5×5 roto fantasy leagues.

One important thing to note is the premium (or lack thereof) placed on the position a player occupies in your lineup. For example, while a first baseman may be able to accumulate superior overall numbers, the availability of such production lower in the rankings severely dampers the amount the player was worth.

These rankings are meant to reflect a player’s value should he have occupied this spot in your lineup for the entire year. So, a player who missed time due to injury but put up great numbers during his time on the field would be worth less.

With all this in mind, here are your rankings. Read the rest of this entry »

The pre-season prediction reviews continue this week and today I recap my bold hitter league leaders. Since these players were meant to be bold choices, I purposely did not pick any of the obvious guys or anyone I thought might not be considered very bold. Though I expected to hit a couple of my bold predictions, it would have been quite a surprise if I actually hit on any of these league leaguers. Let’s see how I did.

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On Monday, I reviewed the hitters who I calculated to be the most overvalued at each position (sans catcher) in the pre-season. Today I will recap those who I figured to be the most undervalued at those positions. And surprise, we actually have a catcher this time. I will begrudgingly use the Yahoo rankings again and hopefully no position eligibility drama will ensue this time around. Just to repeat what I said in the comments of the overvalued article, I base my own valuations/rankings on 20 games played last year and 10 this year. So to keep things consistent, I have to apply the same rules on the Yahoo final season rankings to accurately compare.

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I didn’t just make 20 bold predictions in the pre-season, I also made various other proclamations and forecasts that put my credibility on the line. One of those series of articles was a look at who I thought were the most overvalued and undervalued players at every position, including pitchers. Today is a review of the hitters I thought were overvalued. As a reminder, I looked at the top 10 hitters in ADP at each infield position and top 20 in the outfield. I tried looking at catcher, but realized that because most leagues draft only one, the most overvalued I found was only ranked one spot earlier than my rank. The most overvalued were those who I ranked furthest away from the hitter’s ADP at the time. I am going to use final season Yahoo ranks because that seems easiest, even though I am quite positive their valuation system probably is not all that accurate. Anyhow, Let’s see how I did.

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Freedom from shame at least. They were supposed to be bold. So let’s revisit those predictions.

[Sorry no chat today, gotta get my stuff done before heading to the city for the Bay Area meetup. And sorry for abrupt ending last week, got an important call.]

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As your leagues start to wind down and the playoffs approach it’s important to be up to date on all the latest injury news affecting your players. Any little edge could pay dividends. Today we’re focusing on shortstops.

Troy Tulowitzki:

Remember this guy? No? I’ll give you a second…got it now? I know, it’s tough. He hasn’t played a game since late May. I get it. To jog your memory, he’s one of the better players in baseball, and best shortstop, when healthy. From 2009-2011 he averaged a line of .304/.376/.554 with 29 home runs, 97 runs batted in, 90 runs scored and 13 stolen bases. Sadly, this has been a lost season for Tulo. As our own David Wiers wrote in yesterday’s Roto Riteup, the Rockies are hesitant to play him. He’s still bothered by the groin injury and the Rockies are far out of the playoff hunt. There’s really no reason to play him at all if you’re not 100% certain he’s ok. Josh Rutledge has filled in nicely at short, slugging .526 in 218 plate appearances. There’s no reason to keep Tulowitzki on your roster in non-keeper leagues.

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It’s time again to look ahead to the 2013 fantasy baseball season by highlighting the top potential impact rookies at each position. Why? Because it’s never too early to begin thinking about next year, even if you’re still trying to win your league right now.

For those of you in keeper leagues, particularly deeper ones, these primers will be especially helpful, because you’ll find out which young players may be worth snatching up now — before other owners get a clue — so you can hang onto them next season, when their value kicks in. Think of it like an investment requiring only a little up-front cost that could pay off big in the near future.

Much like my Mining the Minors columns on this site, which focus on current-season impact more than long-term upside, these 2013 rookie primers are meant for players who will exhaust (or are expected to exhaust) their rookiedom next year. Also much like my MTM work, the point here is to find the right mix of opportunity and talent, so that you’re picking up a player who can contribute, either in a starting role or as a reserve, from Opening Day or soon thereafter. For now, it’s good to get ahead of the curve with a snapshot of the young talent at each position.

In case you need a brief example of how this sort of strategy can be worthwhile: In two deep leagues, one AL-only and one NL-only, that allow for up to 10 keepers, I picked up Jarrod Parker, Addison Reed and Will Middlebrooks, as well as Paul Goldschmidt, Todd Frazier and Zack Cozart around this time last year, keeping them all for dirt cheap. Worked out pretty well, if I do say so myself.

Here are the previous position primers: Catchers, Corner Infielders

This episode? Middle infielders (aka, second basemen and shortstops).

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