In reality, Corey Seager was indisputably the top shortstop of 2016. Fantasy is not reality. It’s axiomatic. We value things in our fantasy world, like stolen bases, that just aren’t very important in the real universe. I think you probably know where I’m going with this – Seager is not the top shortstop because he didn’t steal bases. Those things are important. I’d argue it’s doubly important for your middle infielders to be base thieves.

In case you’re just tuning into this series for the first time, I recommend going back in time and starting from the beginning. Luckily, you won’t need a time machine. The post on catchers has notes on important methodological changes. You can also go straight into the calculator to tweak values for your league.

For these articles, I’m going to assume a 12 team, 5×5, standard deep roster with a pitching cap of 1475 innings (most leagues are 1450 or 1500, I split the difference). I set the batter split at 65% because that produces what I consider to be the most realistic position adjustments.

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It’s shortstop week, so let’s get the ball rolling on a player I was notoriously bearish on heading into the season. I wasn’t technically pessimistic about Xander Bogaerts, I just felt that he was being massively overvalued by fantasy owners. Oops, I was wrong. Though I did get some things right. He was a particularly difficult player to project as his batted ball profile completely changed from 2014 to 2015. So much so that he appeared to be a totally different player. Which version of Bogaerts would show up in 2016? It was anyone’s guess.

Let’s see how my 2016 Pod Projection compared to his actual results.

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Though we knew that Jonathan Villar entered the 2016 season with the every day shortstop job in Milwaukee, we were so certain he wouldn’t hold onto that role for very long. You see, the Brewers had top prospect Orlando Arcia waiting in the wings at Triple-A, and we all figured he would be up by June. Instead, Villar got off to a strong start and then kept hitting, and Arcia didn’t end up debuting until August. The team eventually made room for both of them in their lineup, as Villar shifted over to third. Because Villar got that extended opportunity and ran with it (pun intended), he ended up ranking as the fourth most valuable third baseman (his shortstop rank will be published soon) and earning $26.40. How many of you expected him to earn even $10?!

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In 2015 Manny Machado finished the season as the #1 overall shortstop with 1,040 points, and it wasn’t really close, as Xander Bogaerts finished a distant 2nd with 787 points. But raw points aren’t everything, and since all Ottoneu leagues are auction leagues, true player value has to be measured as the result of production and cost (salary).  So which players were the most valuable to their owners in 2016?

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We’ve done a good thing for those of you that still care about fantasy baseball right now. The Auction Calculator now has 2016 stats as an option so that you can look backwards at what has just happened. That’s going to be part of our effort, on the way to the end of the year, to look at last year to learn more for next year.

This is an important part of fantasy that usually gets ignored. Not only does the league itself change year to year, so retrospection is important in that way, but we can learn things about fantasy itself that will improve our ability to value players going forward.

The fourth-best player in the game last year, by this list, has already inspired a possible change to the auction calculator going forward. Let’s see what else it jars loose.

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Earlier this week, I broke down the home run surge at catcher and first base, highlighting those who hit at least 20 homers and identifying some who could do the same in 2017. Today, I’ll be looking at second base and shortstop.

SECOND BASE

The keystone arguably experienced the most growth out of the power surge with an all-time high 15 players hitting at least 20 homers while qualifying at the positon. The previous high was 10 set in 2009 and if you add up the last four years combined, you only get 12. Yes, second base was where you could make power deficiencies from Giancarlo Stanton’s injury or Bryce Harper’s underperformance. It was kinda nuts. Here’s who did it:

Brian Dozier 42, Robinson Cano 39, Rougned Odor 33, Jedd Gyorko 30, Ian Kinsler 28, Daniel Murphy 25, Jonathan Schoop 25, Jose Altuve 24, Jason Kipnis 23, Neil Walker 23, Matt Carpenter 21, Starlin Castro 21, Jean Segura 20, Logan Forsythe 20, and Ryan Schimpf 20

Dozier and Cano were the only two to accomplish the feat last year. The last time more than four players hit 20+ HR at second base was 2011 when eight got it done. It’s not just that so many hit 20+, it’s that four were at 30+ and the aforementioned Dozier and Cano were 35+. The last time two second basemen went for 35+ in a season was 2003 when Bret Boone and Alfonso Soriano achieved the feat. Soriano was joined by Jeff Kent the year before, too.

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Joe Camp won his league, probably because he reads us and listens to our podcasts here, I dunno, but that’s my guess, totally not because he’s an Associate Professor of electrical engineering. Anyway, he won his league, and his leaguemates started chirping about a couple trades he made that year that may have appeared lopsided at the time — my personal opinion is that vetoes suck, and are a dampener on league activity, and we should all be active and talking to each other as much as possible, so if you were on it, you would have made that lopsided trade first — and so Mr. Camp set out to prove he would have won the league anyway.

The way he did it? He took the worst team in the league and replaced everyone on the team with the best free agent pickups of the year. He then compared that team with everyone’s originally drafted teams. The free agents easily won — 96 points to 87 for the best drafted team.

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Ah, the final week of fantasy baseball. The time of year when guys you would normally never consider rostering become crucial lynchpins in your quest for championship glory. If you’re still reading fantasy content in the last week of September, chances are you’re in a highly competitive league, so I’m not going to waste your time talking about players that are likely owned. Instead, I’m focusing solely on players who are available in nearly every league. (If speed is your need, take a look at Mike Podhorzer’s column from this morning.)

Adam Rosales – San Diego Padres

Shocked doesn’t come close to describing my reaction to Rosales’ 2016 numbers. Entering this season, the 33-year-old journeyman infielder had a 0.9 Wins Above Replacement through 1,226 major-league plate appearances. This year, he’s sitting on a 2.3 WAR, with just 245 PA. In the past, Rosales always hit lefties better than righties, but it’s not like he mashed lefties either:

• vs LHP (pre-2016) – 529 PA – .242/.311/.375, .133 ISO, 15 HR
• vs RHP (pre-2016) – 697 PA – .215/.281/.317, .102 ISO, 12 HR

Now take a gander at his numbers from this season, his first in San Diego:

• vs LHP (2016) – 113 PA – .242/.354/.505, .263 ISO, 6 HR
• vs RHP (2016) – 132 PA – .224/.295/.500, .276 ISO, 7 HR

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9/11/16

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer
• @enosarris
• @jasoncollette
• @paulkastava

Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles/Game Play

• Rich Hill – yeah, we’re talking about it (2:50)
• Kevin Kiermaier (15:00)
• Hanley Ramirez (22:30)
• Robbie Ray (29:30)
• Byron Buxton (40:30)

Strategy Section:

• Middle Infield Power – Jason’s Rotowire piece [$] (46:00)

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In fantasy, I generally consider utility players to be more valuable than ever in September, when expanded rosters allow managers to schedule in a few more rest days for their regulars. Throw in the fact that these guys have already played five months of baseball, and the combination of nagging injuries and general fatigue further encourages managers to work in additional rest days.

The last thing you want in the fantasy playoffs is empty lineup slots. Of course, there’s the obvious caveat that it’s difficult to find productive utility players on waivers at this point in the season. In other words, don’t go picking up Cliff Pennington just because he’s eligible at four positions. Let’s not get carried away here.

The three players featured in this piece are all widely available, and capable of producing when they find their way into your lineup.

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