There is no greater intersection of fantasy and ‘real’ baseball analysis than the Spring Position Battle. How better to reap the rewards of good number-crunching than the correct prediction of the winner of the lion’s share of playing time at a given position? It’s one of fantasy baseball’s best moments.

And there’s no easier place to look for this feeling than the worst teams in baseball. The worse the team, the younger the team, the more likely they’ll allow an inexperienced young man to steer the helm at a given position. The Pirates, for example, currently have 30(!) players with three years or fewer experience on their 40-man roster.

Follow this string of thought to the end, and you’ll inevitably end up looking at the team being run by the worst GM in baseball (if Tim Marchman is to be believed). There might be some debate about whether or not it’s more important to feature your best players up the middle, but it’s got to be a given that it’s not a good sign to go into camp not knowing who is going to make up your keystone combo. (The name of that combo should really be a clue.)

So we come to the Royals. At the incumbent starting shortstop position stands Yuniesky Betancourt. By WAR, he was the worst position player that qualified for the batting title last year, costing the Royals $2.2 million on top of his $3.375 million salary. He accomplished this (little) feat by walking only 4.1% of the time while also displaying below-average speed (3.9 speed score, 5.0 average) and power (.106 ISO, .155 MLB average). The worst part for such a ‘key’ defensive position? He had a -23.9 UZR/150 last year, which would be less worrisome if he didn’t also feature a negative rating for his career. I’m struggling to find something good to say, but apparently his demeanor can be even worse than his performance.

Let’s just say he doesn’t offer too much of an obstacle, should, say, Mike Aviles step to the fore. Aviles was once a too-old for his leagues prospect that tore his way through to the major leagues with good contact rates and not much else. He was once over-rated, yes, but now seems under-rated. His injury hurt his good contact rates (90.7% in the zone down to 85.6% last year) and sapped his average power (.155 ISO down to .067 last year). As exhibits in his favor, I submit his minor league ISO (.167) as well as minor league walk and strikeout rates that were virtually identical to his rookie year numbers. Aviles may not have been as good as he looked his rookie year, but he wasn’t as bad as he was last year.

In defense of his defense, there’s no real evidence that it’s terrible, despite the fact that he’s played all over the diamond and his general manager had the (misguided) idea that he needed to acquire another shortstop. His UZR/150 was great in his rookie year (+31.6 UZR/150) and bad last year (-12.7 UZR/150), but Total Zone had him as a positive defender at shortstop in the minors. The Fan Scouting Report pegged him as better than Betancourt even in his poor ’09. Aviles scored better than his competitor/teammate in every category… but arm strength. And now he’s coming off of Tommy John surgery. On the other hand, we must consider the case of Cesar Izturis, who had TJ surgery in 2005 and last year the fans say he sported an arm that was a little better than Stephen Drew‘s and a little worse than Jason Bartlett’s. Izturis had surgery on 9/16/2005 and returned in mid-June 2006. Aviles had his surgery 9/07/2009.

The normal caveats apply. This is is the Royals, we have no idea what’s going on at second base with Alberto Callaspo and Chris Getz (a post for another time), and every recovering arm is different, but in the interest of being unequivocal: By mid-June Mike Aviles should be starting at shortstop for the Royals.

As you can probably gather from our first book offering, the 582-page FanGraphs Second Opinion fantasy companion (now available for less than $8), we’re pretty serious about fantasy baseball around here.

As such, this post launches our official RotoGraphs fantasy draft order rankings as you prepare for your upcoming drafts. We’ll be rolling out Top 15 lists for each position over the next little while and we’ll be updating them throughout March to give you the most accurate information as you shape your 2010 (winning) rosters. At least four RotoGraphs writers weighed in on each positional ranking.

The Top Targets:
1. Chase Utley, Philadelphia (.402 wOBA)
2. Ian Kinsler, Texas (.358 wOBA)
3. Brian Roberts, Baltimore (.356 wOBA)

Utley is the clear winner at this position, both for his individual potential and for the offensive protection that he has around him in the Phillies lineup. He has 25-30 homer potential and he is one of the few second basemen that could produce both 100 runs scored and RBI. His 23 steals were the icing on the cake in ’09 but don’t count on him breaking the 20-mark again.

Kinsler is another second baseman that benefits from a good hitting environment, and a solid lineup. He hit just .253 in ’09 but he produced a 30-30 season and is just 27 years old. Don’t be shocked if he produces his first 100 RBI season in 2010. Roberts is starting to get a little gray around the edges but he’s also very consistent and has appeared in 155+ games for three straight seasons. Of concern, though, is the dwindling stolen base totals from 50 to 40 to 30 over the past three seasons.

The Next Best Thing:
4. Dustin Pedroia, Boston (.360 wOBA)
5. Robinson Cano, New York AL (.370 wOBA)
6. Ben Zobrist, Tampa Bay (.408 wOBA)
7. Aaron Hill , Toronto (.357 wOBA)
8. Brandon Phillips , Cincinnati (.337 wOBA)
9. Dan Uggla, Florida (.354 wOBA)

These middle options were the hardest to rank and you could probably mix numbers four through eight and I wouldn’t argue with you too strongly. Although Cano produced bigger numbers in ’09, you have to be worried about his motivation and consistency. Pedroia is a safer pick but the upside is not as big. Phillips is another player who worries me a bit and I think he’s still a little overrated based on his 30-30 season in ’07. With that said, don’t sneeze at a 20-20 second baseman.

Hill has the potential to be one of the most overrated players in 2010 fantasy drafts, thanks to his 36 homers and 108 RBI. On the plus side, he showed a power boost in ’07, as well, but his ’08 season was ruined by a concussion. With that said, 20 homers and 80 RBI is probably a more realistic projection for the upcoming season. Zobrist is another second baseman who is probably coming off of a career year, but he has some positional flexibility; His minor league numbers did not hint at that type of MLB offense. Uggla is going to hurt you in the batting average category but he’s also the safest bet amongst keystone players to repeat 30 homers.

The Leftovers:
10. Jose Lopez, Seattle (.325 wOBA)
11. Howie Kendrick, Los Angeles AL (.341 wOBA)
12. Orlando Hudson, Minnesota (.342 wOBA)
13. Placido Polanco, Philadelphia (.321 wOBA)
14. Rickie Weeks, Milwaukee (.365 wOBA)
15. Ian Stewart, Colorado (.337 wOBA)

As long as Lopez maintains his second base eligibility (and he shouldn’t become a full-time first baseman in Seattle in ’10), he has value based on his power. I expect a bounce-back season from Kendrick in ’10 but his value is almost all batting average (maybe some runs too). It will be interesting to see how Target Field plays this season and if it will have any effect on Hudson’s play. Polanco is going to be a weak third base fantasy option, but he has value as long as the second-base eligibility remains; He’ll benefit greatly from hitting ahead of Utley and Howard. Stewart has the potential to offer versatility on your roster with the ability to play second base and third base (as well as the outfield in some leagues). Weeks is a wild card.

Up Next: The Third Basemen

Fresh off of a 2009 season in which he posted 4.6 Wins Above Replacement, Felipe Lopez entered the off-season anticipating free agent riches. However, with general managers likely anticipating a healthy dose of regression, the 29 year-old found the market for his services to be downright chilly.

Aggravated that he remained without gainful employment for 2010, Lopez canned uber-agent Scott Boras earlier this month. Now, word is that Lopez has limped back to St. Louis (where he spent part of the 2008 season), inking a one-year, $1.75 million contract with performance-based incentives.

Splitting the ’09 season between the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Milwaukee Brewers, Lopez turned in his best offensive campaign since he was a Cincinnati Red back in 2005. In 680 plate appearances, the switch-hitter put up a .310/.383/.427 triple-slash. Adjusting for park factors and league difficulty, Lopez’s lumber was 16 percent above average (116 wRC+).

However, odds are that those numbers decline next season. Lopez has a decent eye at the dish and he’s not totally bereft of power, but his secondary skills are pretty ordinary. When he bats .310, he’s a valuable offensive player. But what about when he bats .270-.280?

Lopez had a .358 Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP) last season, compared to a career .320 BABIP. His expected BABIP (XBABIP), based on homers, K’s, stolen bases, line drive percentage and rate of fly balls, pop ups and grounders hit, was about .330.

If Lopez benefits from fewer duck snorts and seeing-eye singles next season, then he’s likely to hit something closer to his career .269/.338/.400 line and 97 wRC+. Here are his projections for 2010:

CHONE: .273/.344/.381, 97 wRC+
Marcel: .279/.349/.396, 99 wRC+
Bill James: .281/.352/.400, 103 wRC+

New Busch won’t do any favors in Lopez’s attempt to stave off regression to the mean: according to the 2010 Bill James Handbook, the stadium has depressed run-scoring by seven percent compared to a neutral park over the past three seasons, with a doubles factor of 93, a triples factor of 90 and a home run factor of 80.

Lopez has also lost some fantasy appeal by being a non-entity on the base paths over the past two seasons. Never a huge stolen base threat in the minors or in his first five years in the majors, Lopez swiped 44 bags in 56 tries in 2006, and 24 SB in 33 attempts in 2007. Since then, he stole eight bases in 16 attempts in 2008 and just six in 12 tries this past year. His Speed Score has gone from 6.2 in ’06 to 3.6 in ’09 (the MLB average is about five).

Just how much playing time Lopez receives with the Red Birds remains to be seen. Shortstop Brendan Ryan underwent right wrist surgery earlier this month, and he still has a ways to go in his recovery. Though Lopez has a career -11.2 UZR/150 at short, he could fill in there if Ryan’s rehab drags on. Also, Lopez provides insurance in case third base prospect David Freese (projected 108 wRC+ by CHONE) falters. He could spell second baseman Skip Schumaker against some lefties, too. Though he doesn’t figure to see a ton of time in the outfield, considering St. Louis’ Holliday/Rasmus/Ludwick alignment and his minimal experience running down balls, Lopez could get an occasional start as a fly-catcher.

Considering the investment size and Lopez’s versatility, the Cardinals should be praised for snagging a guy who could be a league-average starter at a bargain-basement price. Fantasy owners, however, would be wise not to expect Lopez to replicate his 2009 level of offensive production. As Carson Cistulli said about him in The 2010 Second Opinion, “Lopez is probably a better real-live baseball player than fantasy one.”

A while back, we checked the position at second base and outlined some tiers that should help you choose between options in your draft. Unfortunately, this position doesn’t produce ADP values as cleanly as some other positions (and we like our values clean).

Take the first two tiers, for example. It would be nice to pick the lowest-drafted second baseman in the first two tiers, Brian Roberts (40.69 ADP), and just declare him the value of the two tiers. The problem is that Roberts has too many question marks to get the (grade A) stamp of approval as a value. For instance, though his ISO was a second-best last year (.168), and it seems to have grown organically (three straight increases), that ISO has famously peaked before (.201 in his 18-home-run 2005 season) and then returned back towards the baseline (.137). He’s 32 and his stolen bases have declined for two straight seasons. Then again, 2008 produced his career-best full-season speed score (7.3), and that wasn’t so long ago. The point is, counting on his for anything more than 12 or so home runs and 30 or so stolen bases probably isn’t a good idea, and those numbers seem a little light for the third round. On the other hand, Dustin Pedroia (37.48 ADP) goes three picks earlier and isn’t going to hit that stolen base number and may only out-homer Roberts by a handful. Maybe Roberts is the actual value here.

There is a lot of questionable power in the next tier. Aaron Hill (46.87 ADP), Robinson Cano (45.83 ADP) and Jose Lopez (123.97 ADP) all had power spikes last year, and their draft positions show the confidence the general public has that the different players will return with good power in 2010. Once again, it’s tempting to take Lopez with the lowest ADP and call him the value – and there are some reasons to believe the power will stick. His ISO, fly ball, and HR/FB rates have all steadily risen over the last three years. The problem is that, with his walk rate (3.7% career), his value is tied up in that power, and his career ISO (.141) is still low enough that it is hard to count on. Why not take Dan Uggla (85.10) a couple rounds earlier so that you can depend on his power (.225 career ISO)? Here it seems that Uggla is the real value in the tier.

The final tier is a rag-tag group, as Asdrubal Cabrera (158.18) and Howie Kendrick (146.64) leading the way, though neither is a lock to hit 15 home runs or stolen bases next year. They’ll have to hit a lot of singles to make up for their shortcomings in those two important fantasy categories. Again here, Clint Barmes (307.61) and Adam Kennedy (327.96) bring up the rear but have too many questions to tout as the values of the tier. Barmes doesn’t walk (4.3%), strikes out a fair amount (22% last year), and though he showed power last year (.195 ISO), his career power is less exciting (.157). He’s also done a lot of jumping around in the power department, and last year may have just defined his upside anyway. Kennedy had a nice year, but despite his 20 stolen bases last year, his speed score was actually below-average. He doesn’t really have a single skill you can count on.

If you’re going to take a plunge, why not take one on Rickie Weeks (212.37 ADP)? Yes, it will cost a healthier pick than Barmes, but we’re still talking about a 19th-round pick in mixed league drafts. His ISO has jumped around some too (.125 – .245), but it’s been trending upwards in a general way. There’s still the upside that he might finally put together one of his better strikeout rates (say, 2008’s 24.2%) with one of his better walk rates (11.8% in 2008) and BABIPs (.313 last year) and get his batting average up past the .250s. We know he has power and speed, and an okay batting average would make him a valuable second baseman, especially in head-to-head leagues. That he might be the value of the final tier should serve as a positional scarcity warning for the position, too.

San Diego Padres signed C Yorvit Torrealba to a one-year, $1.25 million contract with a $3.5 million mutual option for the 2011 season.

Torrealba, 31, is expected to split time behind the dish with Nick Hundley. Dusty Ryan, designated for assignment by the Tigers and picked up by the Padres in a December trade, is likely ticketed for Triple-A Portland.

In part-time play last year, Torrealba turned in his best offensive season since he was a Giant back in 2004. He batted .291/.351/.380 in 242 plate appearances with the Rockies. However, there’s little reason to believe that he’ll replicate that production in 2010.

Torrealba’s BABIP was .355 in 2009, compared to a .298 career mark in the majors. And clearly, the change in home ballparks is massive. When you take Coors Field into account, Torrealba’s ’09 production at the plate was still 16 percent worse than average (84 wRC+). His career wRC+ with Colorado is 77.

So, with plenty of extra hits dropping in and the benefit of Coors, Torrealba was still a tepid batter. Now, he’s going to cavernous Petco, anathema to all things offense. CHONE projects a .242/.301/.353 line in 2010, with a 73 wRC+.

Oakland Athletics traded LHP Dana Eveland to the Toronto Blue Jays for a PTBNL or cash.

A husky left-hander, Eveland has now been traded three times during his career. The Brewers’ 16th-round pick in the 2002 draft was swapped to the Diamondbacks in November of 2006, and then headed to Oakland in December of 2007 as a sweetener in the Dan Haren deal.

In four seasons at the Triple-A level, the 26 year-old punched out 7.7 batters per nine frames, with 3.4 BB/9. He struggled in three cups of coffee in the majors from 2005-2007.

But Eveland tossed 168 frames in 29 starts with the A’s in 2008, with 6.32 K/9, 4.13 BB/9 and a 4.55 xFIP. There’s nothing awe-inspiring about that line, and he did often back himself into hitter’s counts (54.7 first-pitch strike percentage, compared to the 58-59% MLB average).

However, Eveland’s four-pitch mix garnered ground balls 48.7 percent of the time. His 90 MPH fastball was worth -0.31 runs per 100 pitches, with his high-70’s curve (-0.18) and low-80’s changeup (-0.49) also in the red. But Eveland’s bread-and-butter offering was a low-80’s slider, thrown over 23 percent of the time with a +1.76 run value per 100 tosses.

2009, by comparison, was a disaster. In 44 frames with Oakland, Eveland struck out just 22 batters and issued 26 free passes. He wasn’t 7.16 ERA-level bad, but that 5.20 xFIP was still plenty grim. Eveland’s fastball velocity dipped to 88.7 MPH. At Triple-A Sacramento, the southpaw posted rates of 6.7 K/9 and 3.7 BB/9, with a 4.33 FIP in 124 innings.

There’s little downside from Toronto’s perspective, as they pick up the recently DFA’d Eveland at little cost. If he can find the form that allowed him to pitch at a league-average level in ’08, Eveland could fight for a spot at the back of the Blue Jays’ rotation. It’s an awfully crowded competition, however. His CHONE forecast for 2010? A 4.59 FIP in 144 innings, with 5.44 K/9 and 3.94 BB/9.

Washington Nationals signed INF Adam Kennedy to a one-year, $1.25 million contract with a $2 million club option for the 2011 season.

Kennedy will man second base for the Nationals, meaning that Cristian Guzman will remain at shortstop for the time being and that Ian Desmond does not have a defined role with the club at the outset of the 2010 season.

Signed to a minor league deal by the Rays last year, Kennedy was traded to the A’s and split his time between second and third base. In 587 PA, Kennedy batted .289/.348/.410 with a 108 wRC+. He nabbed 20 bases in 26 attempts to boot.

Kennedy didn’t come anywhere near that offensive level from 2006 to 2008 (a combined 77 wRC+), and he turned 34 in January. It’s not surprising, then, that the projection systems aren’t too fond of him: CHONE calls for an 89 wRC+, as does Marcel. Given his multi-position eligibility and ability to swipe some bags, Kennedy could have a tiny bit of value in NL formats early next season. Just don’t expect an ’09 repeat.

Minnesota Twins signed 2B Orlando Hudson to a one-year, $5 million contract.

O-Dog might not be the same caliber glove man that he was during his days with the Blue Jays (-3.3 UZR/150 over the past three seasons), but the switch-hitter has shown improvement at the plate in his early thirties. You could pretty much set your watch to Hudson’s bat over the past three years: a 114 wRC+ in 2007 and 2008, and a 112 wRC+ in 2009.

His triple-slash line this past year (.283/.357/.417) looks less impressive than his work with the D-Backs, but that’s mainly the result of park factors. According to the 2010 Bill James Handbook, Arizona’s Chase Field boosted run-scoring by 15 percent compared to a neutral stadium from 2007-2009, increasing doubles by 20 percent and triples by a stunning 73 percent. Dodger Stadium, meanwhile, has increased runs by four percent, inflating two-baggers by five percent and decreasing triples by 29 percent.

The 32 year-old doesn’t possess one standout skill at the plate. But he has a good eye, with a 10.2 percent walk rate from 2007-2009, and a 19.2 Outside-Swing% (25% MLB average). Hudson’s not an over-the-fence threat, with single-digit HR totals the past couple years, but he hit enough doubles to post a .142 ISO from ’07 to ’09. It is worth nothing that Orlando hit more worm-burners than usual with the Dodgers:

His groundball rate was 55.8 percent, compared to a career 49.9 GB%. If that trend persists, that portends to less pop for Hudson.

Here are Hudson’s projections for the 2010 season:

CHONE: 103 wRC+
Bill James: 106 wRC+
Fans: 108 wRC+
Marcel: 111 wRC+

It’s hard not to like this move for the Twins, as the club adds a 2+ win second baseman at a bargain price. Hudson isn’t a top-tier fantasy option, but he seems like a good bet to be 5-10 percent better than average with the lumber next year.

Oakland Athletics acquired 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff and 2B Eric Sogard from the San Diego Padres for OFs Scott Hairston and Aaron Cunningham.

Kouzmanoff’s arrival means that Eric Chavez and Jake Fox have little chance of seeing time at the hot corner. Of course, Chavez has scarcely played over the past two seasons while suffering through back, shoulder and elbow injuries, while Fox probably shouldn’t go anywhere near a glove. Dallas McPherson, who combines Chavez’s durability with Fox’s minor league feats of strength, also loses out here.

The 28 year-old Kouzmanoff is under team control for the next three seasons. He’s a decent defender at third, but what about his bat?

Kouzmanoff is extremely aggressive at the dish, having drawn a free pass in just 4.9 percent of his plate appearances in the majors. His outside swing percentage was 31.3 last season, and sits at 32.3% in the big leagues (25 percent MLB average).

The former Indians prospect puts a charge into the ball, however, with a career .174 Isolated Power. Kouzmanoff has been a slightly-above hitter, once the cavernous dimensions of Petco Park are taken into account. His wRC+ is 103.

Moving out of Petco certainly won’t hurt Kouzmanoff’s value. But keep in mind that the Oakland Coliseum does a number on offensive production as well. Courtesy of the 2010 Bill James Handbook, here are the three-year park factors for Petco and the Coliseum. A park factor of 100 is neutral, while anything below 100 favors pitchers.

Petco Park, 2007-2009

Runs: 76
2B: 75
3B: 93
HR: 73
RHB HR: 86

Oakland Coliseum, 2007-2009

Runs: 91
2B: 89
3B: 96
HR: 90
RHB HR: 77

CHONE projects Kouzmanoff to bat .259/.304/.431 next season.

Sogard, 23, spent 2009 at Double-A San Antonio in the Texas League. The lefty-swinging second baseman hit .293/.370/.400 in 530 plate appearances, controlling the strike zone (11.3 BB%, 10.3 K%) but displaying little thump (.107 ISO).

San Diego’s 2nd-round pick in the 2007 draft, Sogard has a career .292/.375/.417 line in the minors. His keen eye and quality defense give him a shot to be a regular, but the presence of Adrian Cardenas and Jemile Weeks in Oakland’s system means he’ll probably end up as a utility man.

Hairston, meanwhile, returns to San Diego after a sojourn with the A’s last summer. He was swapped to Oakland in July for RHPs Sean Gallagher, Craig Italiano and Ryan Webb.

The 29 year-old Hairston is cut from the same offensive cloth as Kouzmanoff: ample pop, but few free passes. He has a career walk rate of 6.8 percent, but also a .202 ISO. His wRC+ in the majors is 100. The former Diamondbacks prospect is often banged up, however, hitting the DL with a left shoulder injury in 2005, right biceps inflammation in 2006, an oblique strain in 2007, ligament surgery on his left hand in 2008 and a left biceps strain in 2009 (injury information from the Fantasy Pitch F/X DL Tool) CHONE forecasts a .254/.315/.448 triple-slash for Hairston in 2010. He’s under San Diego’s control through 2011.

Hairston rates as a quality defender in the outfield, and his arrival likely means that Chase Headley will transition back to third base.

Cunningham, 24 in April, has now been traded three times during his pro career. The Chicago White Sox took him in the 6th round of the 2005 draft, but shipped him to the Arizona Diamondbacks for Danny Richar in June of 2007. The D-Backs then included him in the Dan Haren deal in December of ’07.

He owns a career .309/.382/.493 line in the minor leagues. Cunningham doesn’t really excel in one particular area offensively. He possesses some power (.184 ISO), but doesn’t figure to be a massive extra-base threat in the majors. While not a total hacker, Cunningham has a mild 8.8 percent walk rate on the farm.

CHONE paints the picture of an average offensive player, as Cunningham’s 2010 projection is .263/.330/.420. His short-term role is clouded, with Kyle Blanks a 6-6, 285 pound science experiment in RF and Will Venable also figuring into San Diego’s outfield rotation. But he could work his way into more regular playing time if Hairston suffers another malady.

Hairston and Cunningham’s departures help clear Oakland’s outfield glut. Rajai Davis apparently has the left field job for the time being, but top prospect Michael Taylor figures to make his presence felt before the season is through.

One of 2009’s biggest surprises, Ben Zobrist was an afterthought and hardly drafted before the year began. Now, he is in everyone’s mind and has moved up the rankings fast. Most players that breakout the year before and are underrated become overrated almost overnight. Using ADP data provided by Mock Draft Central, we can easily take a look at where Zobrist is going, and whether he is over/under/correctly valued going into 2010.

At the time that I am writing this, on average, Zobrist is currently the 8th second baseman off the board and is being drafted at around pick number 60. The second baseman being drafted before him (Aaron Hill) is taken 12 picks ahead of Zobrist, and the second baseman after him (Dan Uggla) goes a whopping 27 picks later.

Because he was a utility man in 2009, Zobrist should also be available as an outfielder in all leagues. Currently, he is the 16th outfielder off the board, sandwiched between Curtis Granderson (56) and teammate B.J. Upton (60). Even better, Zobrist started 6 games at shortstop and played a total of 13 games at that position, giving him extra eligibility in some leagues (like Yahoo!) that may carry over into the 2010 season. If that is the case, Zobrist would be the sixth SS off the board, after Derek Jeter (51) and teammate Jason Bartlett (104).

It’s hard to put a price on a player’s ability to play two, and possibly three positions and provide a solid offensive return. Because we are talking about Zobrist, and this is FanGraphs, I suppose we need to talk some stats. Fine. Below are Zobrist’s stats from 2008 and 2009, along with the Fan Projections for 2010.

2008: .253/.339/.505, 12 HR, 3 SB, 32 R, 30 RBI, .255 BABIP, .311 xBABIP
2009: .297/.405/.543, 27 HR, 17 SB, 91 R, 91 RBI, .330 BABIP, .327 xBABIP
2010: .282/.378/.470, 22 HR, 14 SB, 94 R, 107 RBI

Fans are expecting a drop-off in power and steals, and a decrease in batting average. Not good. However, those numbers still aren’t terrible, and better than most second baseman on the market. For a shortstop, I like a little more speed and a higher average, but you can always compensate at other positions. As an outfielder, the numbers aren’t great. The RBI’s and runs are very good, but I’d rather play him at an infield position.

Overall, I’d be willing to take Zobrist in the middle round six, a little after where he is projected to go. For once, a breakout player doesn’t seem to be too overvalued going into drafts. Zobrist isn’t underrated anymore, and you’ll have to pay market value for his services on your fantasy team.

In a shocking turn of events, the San Francisco Giants recently signed a 30-something free agent to help fill a void in the lineup. An unpredictable one, that Brian Sabean. Mark DeRosa, 35 in February, will likely man the hot corner for the Giants on most nights, shifting Pablo Sandoval to first base.

After reportedly seeking a three-year deal worth as much as $27 million total, DeRosa had to settle for a milder two-year, $12 pact with San Francisco. The University of Pennsylvania product once was an obscure utility man with the Atlanta Braves, posting a combined 81 wRC+ from 1998 to 2004 (his park and league-adjusted offense was 19 percent worse than average).

However, DeRosa emerged as the Swiss Army Knife of ball players with the Texas Rangers. He didn’t play a whole lot in 2005, with a wRC+ of 102 in 166 plate appearances. But the righty batter was penciled into the lineup card daily in 2006, posting a 108 wRC+ while bouncing around the diamond (second base, third base and right field, with a few cameos at shortstop, first base and left field).

Those contributions helped land DeRosa a three-year, $13M deal with the Chicago Cubs prior to the 2007 season. He replicated his Lone Star State production in the Windy City in ’07, with another 108 wRC+ season while playing every position on the diamond at some point, save for catcher and center field (he spent most of his time at 3B and 2B).

2008 would be a career year for DeRosa, who bopped to the tune of a 128 wRC+ while doing his usual “wherever ya need me, skip” act in the field. He walked in a career-high 12.4 percent of his PA, compiling a .196 ISO to boot.

After the season, the Cubs shipped DeRosa to the Cleveland Indians for a package of young arms including Christopher Archer, John Gaub and Jeff Stevens. With the team’s playoffs aspirations obliterated by mid-season, however, the Tribe dealt DeRosa to the St. Louis Cardinals in late June for relief prospects Chris Perez and Jesse Todd.

DeRosa suffered a left wrist injury in ’09, serving a DL stint for a torn tendon sheath just after being acquired by the Cards. He played through the ailment once he was activated in mid-July. Overall, DeRosa batted .250/.319/.433 in 576 PA, with a 101 wRC+. Despite the bum wrist, he actually retained much of his power stroke, posting a .183 ISO on the season.

His plate discipline wasn’t as sharp, though. Perhaps it was the wrist injury, as such maladies sap a player’s bat control. Or maybe it was just the normal decline we expect to see in a mid-30’s player coming off of career-best campaigns. Whatever the cause, DeRosa took a cut at more pitches off the plate, swung at fewer offerings within the strike zone and made less contact:

2007
19.5 Outside-Swing%, 71.3 Z-Swing%, 82.5 Contact%

2008
20.9 O-Swing%, 66.3 Z-Swing%, 79.3 Contact%

2009
23.5 O-Swing%, 65.2 Z-Swing%, 77.9 Contact%

(The MLB averages in recent years are: 25% for O-Swing, 66% for Z-Swing and 81% for Contact)

DeRosa should be roughly a league-average hitter in 2010, though there’s downside potential because of his age. He played mostly third base in ’09, but logged enough appearances in the outfield to qualify there as well. Unfortunately, DeRosa likely lost second base eligibility in many leagues (he appeared in just two games at the keystone).

CHONE projects DeRosa to hit .262/.343/.415 next season, which is about average offensive production. Bill James calls for a similar .260/.335/.418 line, while the fans are slightly more hopeful with a .273/.346/.436 forecast. DeRosa is an adequate option in NL-only leagues, but there’s no upside with decent hitter, in his mid-30’s, coming off of an injury.

The Mets made a couple of minor moves yesterday, signing Alex Cora and Chris Coste to deals.

As of now, Cora will be the backup middle infielder for the Mets. When Jose Reyes went out with a leg injury, Cora stepped in and ended up playing 82 games for New York last year. In his 308 plate appearance, Cora hit .251/.320/.310 and only scored 31 runs. He stole 8 bases in 11 tries, adding in a single homer and 18 RBI. Cora swings at less than 40% of the pitches he sees, but has an astounding 93.7% contact rate. Simply put, when the man swings, he puts a bat on the ball.

By signing Cora, the Mets are giving themselves an option if they can find a taker for Luis Castillo. Cora would likely step in and start at second base if Castillo is gone, but his fantasy value is minimal, even in deep mixed and NL-only leagues. He isn’t much of a hitter, and won’t contribute much (if anything) to your fantasy squad. Stay far away from Cora, even if he ends up starting.

Coste will likely fight for the backup catcher role with Omir Santos, who is already on the Mets roster. Coste last played for Houston in 2009, but spent the first part of the year with the Phillies. Coste hit .224/.301/.317 with 2 homers in 230 plate appearances last season. The lack of homers from Coste was a surprise, as his previous career low was 5 (in 137 PA’s), and is reflected in his 3.4% HR/FB%. This is likely to rise a bit, but playing in Citi Field won’t help anything.

The Mets are looking at Bengie Molina to fill their starting catcher role, but may stay away from him if the Giants offer him arbitration. Regardless, the Mets will look to bring in another catcher, and may hand the role over to prospect Josh Thole if it comes to it. However, Coste is a great guy to have on a major league roster because he smacks lefties around (.294/.345/.476 with 9 homers in 254 career PA). While he isn’t someone you draft as-is, if the Mets end up handing Coste the starting gig he may be worth a late draft pick in deep leagues if you have room to carry two catchers on your roster, allowing you to play him against southpaws.

Both of the moves the Mets made don’t have a great fantasy impact, but it does show their intentions for the rest of the offseason. And that, my friends, could have quite the impact on your roster.