In today’s edition of ADP Crowdsourcing, we go a little older and try to nail down draft position for a proven vet. Just like last week, we are still voting on where you think the player will be drafted by the average owner (just like we’ve always done), but also where you would take him. Please note that we are back to round today and not pick number due to the expected results.

Coming off an extremely impressive contract year with the Angels, Chone Figgins joined the Seattle Mariners and watched his numbers drop in almost every category. Figgins struggled with strikeouts early on in the year, and at times looked like he was simply trying to get the ball in play and avoid the K. He somehow managed to steal more than 40 bases for the fifth time in six seasons, but a batting average below .260 made him waiver-wire fodder in a lot of leagues.

However, If you’re looking for reason to trust Figgins next year, look no further than his first and second half splits, as determined by the All-Star break:

First half: .235 BA, .291 BABIP, 20.6% K%,
Second half: .286 BA, .340 BABIP, 16.7% K%

Figgins also had a slightly higher rate of extra-base hits in the second half of the year, suggesting that he may have found his stroke and gotten back to his old form. Figgins is still past his peak, but thanks to his reliance on his stumpy little legs, he should still be able to put up solid fantasy numbers for another couple of years. But if you don’t want to buy into an aging speedster who’s overall numbers were sub-par last year, I understand.

Just like we started to do last week, we are still voting on where you think Figgins will be drafted by the average owner, but we’re going to take it a step further. We are also going to vote on where you would draft him, as well. Also, please note we are using round, not pick this time because of Figgins’ likely ADP. Below is a link to the voting form, and please read the wording carefully. For the voting, we’re assuming a 12-team standard league, using 5×5 scoring.

To submit your vote, click here.

* Anyone not named Billy Butler and Joakim Soria, obviously.

Yesterday we looked at what remains of the Royals’ pitching staff to determine if any of those guys were worth a roster spot in a fantasy league, and today we’re going to move onto the position player crop. Fun starts after the jump…

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In today’s edition of ADP Crowdsourcing, we are using pick number instead of round again, so please vote accordingly. Also in today’s edition, we use a suggestion from the audience, specifically reader “phoenix2042.”

Robinson Cano’s 2010 breakout was huge for a multitude of reasons. Some pertaining to fantasy baseball, and some that were more relevant to real life ballin’. Sometimes, when we see a player improve his power numbers, we’ll see a drop in batting average due to a changed swing and/or more strikeouts while going for the big one. This was not the case for Cano, who’s batting average dropped a single point despite a higher (yet still low) strikeout rate.

Cano’s now shown me that he can be a consistent .320 hitter if his BABIP doesn’t screw him, and entering his age-28 season, we could see even more pop from the middle infielder. He hit 29 dingers last season, so surpassing 30 would be pretty easy.

Cano has had over 600 plate appearances in each of the past four seasons, and has never made less than 500 trips to the plate in his career. He’s durable, plays a premium position for a good team, and produces at a high rate. This guys a first round pick, for sure, but how high should he really go in the first? That’s for y’all to decide.

Below is a link to the voting form, and please read the wording carefully. This is not where you would draft him, but where you think he’ll be drafted in most leagues. This time around, we’re using pick number instead of round, as it works a little better for top players. For the voting, we’re assuming a 12-team standard league, using 5×5 scoring.

To submit your vote, click here. And while you’re at it, why not submit a fan projection for Cano by clicking here?

Though the purported four-year, $48M contract offered by the Marlins to Dan Uggla would have made the second baseman the highest-paid Marlin in 2011 (and worth about a quarter of the team’s full payroll), the beefy second baseman didn’t think much of it. Perhaps he has a point – he’s beaten that value for four straight seasons (and significantly in three of those years). In any case, what would a move out of Florida do for his fantasy value?

First, though his .330 BABIP doesn’t seem drastic, it’s almost 110% of his lifetime BABIP (.302), and he hits enough fly balls (45.9% flyballs lifetime) that low-BABIP years are about as likely as high ones. In fact, he’s seemingly alternated BABIPs in the .270s with ones over .300 his entire career. Give him a BABIP in the .270s next year, and his batting average will likely decline. Don’t pencil him in for another .287 year at least.

Considering that he doesn’t steal many bases (19 career), his value is of course tied up in his power. Florida’s stadium has always had the reputation of being a power-suppressor, so it maybe surprising to learn that StatCorner says the park has a 95 home-run park factor for right-handed batters. It even augments extra-base hits (and triples especially, with a 133 park factor for trips). Some argue that three-year samples better reveal a park’s true nature, so we’ll turn to ESPN’s page to find that the three-year average for home run park factors in Florida is .931. So Uggla has perhaps seen his power at home suppressed by 5-7%, it seems.

On the other hand, Uggla’s career splits don’t seem to have noticed. He’s slugged .485 at home and .490 away, which would seem like a difference until you remove all the singles and look at the ISOs – .224 at home and .225 away – or the HR/FB rates – 15.1% at home, 15.6% away. In order for the needle to really move on his power (which has been pretty consistent, with ISOs between .216 and .254 since his rookie year), he might need to end up somewhere that is friendly to right-handed batters.

According to partner site MLBTradeRumors.com, the known suitors are the Cardinals, Nationals, Blue Jays, and Tigers, with the Braves late to the party. St. Louis is the obvious concern, with their 73 HR park factor for righties last year and a .803 three-year average – if he ends up playing with Albert Pujols, you’d actually want to bump his value down. Instead, Uggla owners should be rooting for a move north – the Blue Jays’ park had a 116 park factor for righties this year, and a 1.091 three-year average.

A quick word on Uggla’s RBI totals would seem to make sense here. Though he’s been a strong run producer throughout his career, his teams have conspired to keep him from crossing the 100-RBI threshold until this past season. The 2010 Marlins were seventh in National League in runs and eighth in wOBA. The Cardinals, Braves, Tigers and Jays all had better wOBAs and scored more runs. As long as Uggla doesn’t end up in our nation’s capital, his RBI total stands to grow.

At 30 years old, Uggla is right on the precipice, with his decline staring him in the face. He’s right to fight for the best deal he can get after getting a late start to his career. On the other hand, with the right move – to the right park – he might get a power boost that could lead to a career-high in home runs and a great peak year (at least in fantasy terms).

Last year, Jason Donald, Jayson (not Laynce) Nix, Drew Sutton, Mark Grudzielanek and Luis Valbuena played second base for the Indians. Andy Marte joined this stupendous crew once you include third base.

Not a single one topped a .307 wOBA for the year. Donald’s .253/.312/.378 made for the best of the bunch.

That is a crisis, ladies and gentleman. And crisis usually means opportunity in fantasy baseball. If you were able to guess the correct owner of the second and third base roles in Cleveland next year and beyond, you could take advantage of that opportunity in your keeper league now.

Of course, the leaders in the clubhouse are Mssrs Donald and Nix, as they finished the year in those roles, are under control, and the Indians are in no shape to push their prospects onto a team that most likely won’t contend next year. But Donald and Nix are flawed, and there’s little reason to think that they’ll improve next year.

Donald’s strikeout rate last year (23.6%) was just too close to his minor league rate (23%) to think he can reduce it too much, and he never even showed average power in Triple-A (.146 max ISO at that level). His career-high in stolen bases was 12, too, so speed won’t be the reason he sticks around. His defense could improve – he is a former shortstop – but will it be good enough to float a poor bat? Luis Valbuena showed us that former shortstops with poor bats and too many strikeouts don’t always stick as slick-fielding second baseman, right? Nix may have some upside – he has power, at the very least (.165 ISO) – but he’s over 700 PAs into his career and he strikes out too much and has a career .248 BABIP. He may or may not be a poor fielder, too. This is not a foundational pair.

Cue Jason Kipnis, Lonnie Chisenhall, and Cord Phelps. Somewhere in this trio the team hopes to find two infielders.

Phelps is coming off a great year (.317/.386/.506), and it was good enough to make Carson Cistulli’s MLE hot list. He’s the closest to the major leagues – he played a full year at Double- and Triple-A – and therefore he may get the first shot once Donald and Nix underwhelm. But his power sort of came out of nowhere (his .189 ISO at Triple-A was preceded by a .100 at Double-A, and a .102 in High-A). He may make a good re-draft name to file away, but as a long-term keeper don’t spend too many resources to get him.

Phelps does not have the upside of Arizona Fall League attendee Jason Kipnis, for example. His career .307/.386/.486 shows that he has a bat worth targeting. He’s walked about ten percent of the time, struck out about twenty percent of the time, and showed above-average power at every level. At the AFL all-star game, he flashed the leather with a great pick at third base and then hit a ringing double off of Chris Carpenter after the Cubs’ prospect hit triple digits on the stadium gun. Get excited.

Chisenhall had a poor 100+ at-bats Double-A in 2009 but he also had an inexplicable .176 BABIP there. Otherwise, he’s shown good power overall (.183 ISO) and the potential for more. He’s only struck out more than 20% of the time at one level, as well. Given a healthy and productive start to the 2011 season, he may also get a shot at a major league job soon, and his more extended power run also places his upside above Phelps’. Everyone will find a favorite among the three, but with a crisis on the infield in Cleveland, there’s assuredly opportunity for two of these men to step forward and provide value.

I’m off to the Arizona Fall League and Ron Shandler’s First Pitch this weekend, so my posting schedule will be erratic. The good news is that I’ll have plenty of fodder for those posts when I do get around to writing them.

Back to the matter at hand. We’ve been talking about the middle infield recently, doing keeper rankings for second base and shortstop in the past two weeks. A fitting segue might be to a pair of middle infielders on one team, especially since their flaws are as apparent as their upside.

Ian Desmond saved a lot of Yunel Escobar owners this year, and since he was so cheap (practically undrafted going in), let’s not speak too harshly about him. On the other hand, the flaws are obvious, even within his .269/.308/.392 batting line. We know he doesn’t walk (5% career), so he’s a poor option in OBP leagues. Given his strikeouts (20.8% in 2010) and lack of power (.124 ISO last year), it’s unlikely that he’ll put up great batting averages or power a team to victory, either. To top it off, UZR (and subjective reports) have not enjoyed his defensive effort (-8.1 UZR/150 career). So what is there to like about him?

Well, for one, he’s a live, every-day body at a tough position. 22 shortstops qualified for the batting title, and their average batting line was .266/.322/.391 – Desmond’s line is even close to average, making him relevant in all leagues. Also, though his 2010 power was below-average, his career ISO (.145) is almost exactly average for all major leaguers. His career minor league ISO might be familiar (.129), but he also slugged better as he advanced. Lastly, his line drive percentage (15.8%) was so low that it only has one place to go. There’s no definite answer here, but it certainly looks like there’s power projection left in Desmond’s profile. Paired with his decent speed (5.5 speed score, 17/22 SBs), he can be a workhorse shortstop in most leagues. The flaws will probably keep him from being elite, though.

Across the middle infield from him is newcomer Danny Espinosa. Unfortunately, we only have 112 ML plate appearances to use in our analysis, and not many of his stats will have met Pizza Cutter’s reliability benchmarks in that few at-bats.

We can, however, learn something about Espinosa from his walk, strikeout, groundball and HR/FB rates, which all stabilize under 100 PAs. From his walk and strikeout rates (8% and 29.1% respectively), we can tell that Espinosa is a little bit different style of hitter than Desmond. The walks are about average, so perhaps the .365 OBP from the minor leagues will carry over. But that strikeout rate – arg. It’s a problem, and he exhibited the same problem in the minor leagues (25.7%). Even once the BABIP (.239) regresses next year, Espinosa will be a batting average risk.

Espinosa famously began his career with three home runs in his first five games and six in his first month, but how much power will he show over a full season? He hit a good amount of groundballs (45.8%), but his one-to-one groundball-to-flyball ratio is not going to keep him from showing power (Adrian Gonzalez and Ryan Zimmerman showed the same ratio this year). His minor league ISO (.185) seems to suggest that he can exhibit at least average power, if not the .233 ISO he put up in his debut.

Though he didn’t steal a base in his debut, Espinosa averaged about 24 stolen bases per full season in the minor leagues and has good wheels. Add in his average power and batting average risk, and you have another flawed Nationals’ middle infielder that can help late in 2011 mixed-league drafts. Espinosa had the more stable progression through the minor leagues, showed more power and on-base abiiity, but plays the easier position to fill. In OBP leagues, at least, he’s the obvious play between the two.

It may seem like I’ve been writing about Mike Aviles forever. Two years ago, I compared him to Kevin Maas during Aviles’ rookie year and recommended that people pass on him in 2009 drafts (and, as an aside, I predicted that year that Matt LaPorta may struggle a little more than expected, but the jury should remain out on the Indians slugger). In the preseason this year, I talked him up as a possible starter on that Royal middle infield, and then about six weeks ago, I pointed at him during his great September (.357/.379/.612). If you picked him up after that waiver wire piece, you enjoyed two of his eight home runs and six of his 14 stolen bases, so kudos. You might say Aviles has been better to me than could be expected of a mediocre second baseman.

Hold that though. Is he actually mediocre? User Bas made some interesting points in his favor in the comments section of the Second Base Keeper Rankings. The most important thing he noticed was that Aviles’ flyball rate has slowly been inching forward, incrementally up from 33.4% in his rookie year to 37.9% this last year. That certainly helped his ISO move back from .055 in his lost year to .108 in 2010, but even this new number is sub-par (average is .150ish). Can we faithcast him for more power next year if that flyball rate continues to move?

Maybe. His minor league ISO was .166, so he could put up average power in the major leagues. And getting more balls in the air helps the slugging percentage for sure. But let’s be careful before we pencil him in for more than 15 home runs. Let’s say he gets 500 plate appearances next year, hits 40% of his balls in the air, and returns to his 8% HR/FB while keeping his plate discipline ratios similar. Then he nets 13 home runs. 600 plate appearances? 15 home runs. There are your upper bounds when it comes to a home run total.

Of course, he has some speed. Look at his career four-score speed score, though, and you’ll see it’s more ‘above-average’ than ‘speedster’ kind of speed – Aviles has a 5.6 speed score and 5.0 is average. (Chris Getz, for example, has a career 6.6 speed score). Also, Aviles has never stolen more than 14 bases in a season. Let’s call his upper bounds 15 stolen bases then?

So Aviles has the upside of a .300-hitting, 15/15 second baseman – his 13 games at shortstop this year may or may not qualify him there in your league, and that makes a difference in terms of positional value. But Aviles will also be 30 going into the season, and on a (perpetually?) rebuilding team that owns the aforementioned 27-year-old Getz at his position as well. Getz is a better fielder at his position (-0.1 career UZR/150 to Aviles’ -4.9 career UZR/150) and walks more (7.3% to Aviles’ 4.1% career), so this is no open-and-shut case. The downside is that the team makes it an open competition in the spring and Aviles finds himself as the super-utility guy. That makes him hard to keep, but an interesting late-round draft pick in deep league re-stocking drafts.

Raise your hand if Howie Kendrick is one the most frustrating players you’ve ever owned. Yeah, I feel your pain.

When Kendrick was coming through the Angels system, and finally making it to the big leagues in 2007, a common thought was that he’d win a batting title some day. And while he still could, he hasn’t gotten around to it yet and the possibility of him winning one in the future is looking grim.

Throughout his career, Kendrick has been a league average hitter, thanks to his .327 OBP leading him to a 101 wRC+. Because he doesn’t have much in the way of power (his SLG is usually close to league average), and doesn’t like to take many walks, Kendrick’s real life value is going to center around his glove and his batting average.

Kendrick’s made improvements to his contact skills each and every year since 2007, raising his contact% and improving his whiff rate. Unfortunately, his whiff rate hasn’t been the only thing declining, as his BABIP has steadily gone down since ‘07.

In any given year, you need to hit around .360 to win the batting title. Factoring in Kendrick’s playing time, it means that he’ll need upward of 215 hits to push himself into the lead. Then, factoring in his home run and strikeout rates, we can see that Kendrick will need a BABIP around the .440 mark to win the batting title. This is why batters who can hit for power will have an advantage when it comes to the batting crown, because they get an extra 30+ hits every year, allowing their BABIP to be lower.

Should we ever count on Kendrick having a BABIP that high? Of course not, and we should never project that number for anyone, but it happens. All he can do is put himself in the best position to reach base, by limiting his strikeouts and hitting liners.

The odds are against Kendrick becoming the batting champ, but then again, that’s usually the case. I’d bet he delivers a couple more .300 seasons, and eventually lucks into a batting title at some point. But, a .290/12/12 line isn’t bad for a fantasy second baseman who still has some upside.

All this week, I’ll be looking at potential keepers at each position that you may be on the fence about. Now, a look at some second basemen.

Dustin Pedroia
Odds are you drafted Pedroia in the second round, or maybe the third round if you got lucky. With a serious foot injury on everyone’s mind, owners may be forgetting the fantastic season Pedroia was having before he got hurt. How will his injury affect his next season? We really can’t say for sure, so he may end up being a gamble on draft day.
Crude 2011 Projection: .300/.385, 18 HR, 15 SB
Verdict: Keep. The foot may decrease his stolen bases, but he’s still a stud.

Martin Prado
If you look away from his counting stats, Prado’s numbers are almost identical to 2009. It doesn’t feel like it, but Prado is still young and just entering his peak. He’ll be playing in a good lineup next year, so he could score 100 runs again without breaking a sweat.
Crude 2011 Projection: .310/.355, 17 HR, 5 SB
Verdict: Keep. He should be plenty healthy by spring, so I’m not worried about him.

Ben Zobrist
Want to know just how good Zobrist was in 2009? Even in a down year, Zobrist was a three win player this year. Impressive. Zobrist stayed on rosters this year thanks to good counting stats, and shortstop eligibility. He won’t be SS eligible next year, so what do we make of him? Can he bounce back?
Crude 2011 Projection: .275/.390, 14 HR, 20 SB
Verdict: Keep. He’s an OBP stud, and that’ll help the rest of his numbers. Still a very good second baseman.

Gordon Beckham
He was a disappointment early, but a stellar July and August gave everyone hope. He caught the injury bug late this season, but he’ll be fine next year.
Crude 2011 Projection: .275/.340, 12 HR, 5 SB
Verdict: Cut. He’s got upside, but you can do better for what he’ll cost you.

Rickie Weeks
Weeks finally made good on the potential everyone saw early in his career. While he still hasn’t cut back on the strikeouts, his counting stats are ridiculous, making him one of the best players at his position.
Crude 2011 Projection: .265/.350, 26 HR, 13 SB
Verdict: Keep. The RBI’s and Runs he provides your team are tremendous.

Eric Young (Jr.)
EYJR is one of the fastest players in major league baseball, but the Rockies don’t seem to want to give him a chance.
Crude 2011 Projection: .265/.330, 0 HR, 15 SB
Verdict: Cut. I love me some EYJR, but the Rockies won’t let him play enough to make him worth owning.

If you have a second basemen you’re on the fence about, leave it in the comments. If I see a player showing up in the comments multiple times, I may do a writeup on them for next week.

Some people are still fighting in their finals, or trying to squeeze some life out of their last few at-bats, so we’ll do a few last waiver wires. This one is themed by statistical profiles!

Batting Average / On-Base Percentage / Stolen Bases / Runs
There’s no way we can talk about batting average right now and not talk about Mike Aviles (38% owned). Yes, we profiled him just last week, but he’s found that patented Aviles magic once again – his .358 batting average in September is nice. In stretches like this, his low walk rate is a boon: he’s had more at-bats in which to put up those hits, and four multi-hit games in the past week shows it’s working right now. He doesn’t steal many bases, though, so you could also give Cliff Pennington (10% owned) a look in Oakland – he’s getting on base right now and stealing bases to boot. He’s had a nice year, and if he could cut that strikeout rate just a smidgen (19.3% this year, 19.9% career), he might be able to push that batting average up a few points. Franklin Gutierrez is walking a little more in September (5 walks) than he has since his freakish May (20 walks), is playing in a nice park in Texas the next few weeks (against a catcher core that gives up a 67% success rate on stolen bases), and has five stolen bases in his past two weeks. He’s a good shallow league option (26% owned). Ryan Kalish (3% owned) also deserves a mention as the Red Sox fall out of contention, but he’s not quite playing every day, isn’t walking enough just yet (5.6%) and is also batting low in the lineup when he’s in. Finally, deeper leaguers have to look the way of Peter Bourjos (1% owned) for speed and speed alone. He’s still playing most days and he’s swiped four bags in the past two weeks. Beyond improving poor plate discipline stats (3.6% walk rate, 22.4% strikeout rate), Bourjos could also use some regression to the mean in his BABIP (.231). At least he’s gotten on base in five of his last 13 plate appearances and his excellent defense (+36.1 UZR/150!).

Slugging Percentage / Home Runs / RBI
Now we’re looking for boppers. Ty Wigginton (54% owned) is a nice power pickup because he’s playing well and is eligible all over the diamond. The Orioles’ infielder has been wiggin’ out a little at the plate – his strikeout rate climbed almost 7% from last year – but his power is back in line with career norms (.173 ISO, .180 career) and he finishes the year at home, where he has a decent .269/.318/.455 line. He has struggled a little out of the gate, but Pedro Alvarez (19% owned) has been much better in September (.292/.354/.562) and could be your lightning in a bottle – which is, let’s face it, what you are looking for in the final week. The reason we can be excited about this final stretch is that Alvarez has been struggling with the whiff all year (34.9%) but has really cut down on those Ks this month (24.7%), and with nice power already (.200 ISO) and more on the way (.251 ISO in minor leagues), that lower strikeout rate will play just fine. We’ve given Michael Morse (9% owned) a lot of love recently for his power, but he deserves another shout-out here. John Bowker (1% owned) and Lucas Duda (0% owned) are both available in most leagues and could run into some home runs this week as their teams look to next year. Bowker might be the better bet – he’s in his peak years at 27 years old, and has all that minor league promise yet to be tapped into (.198 career minor league ISO, up to .264 over his final two stops). On the other hand, the Bucs draw decent pitching staffs in Florida and St. Louis while the Mets face Milwaukee and Washington over the final week.