The fantasy season is coming down to the wire, so let’s focus on two waiver guys that will help boost your stolen base total down the stretch…

Read the rest of this entry »

The following list is of the 2B that have had the largest changes in % owned at ESPN and the reasons behind the changes.

Risers

Darwin Barney (+25.1%) – I can not put a finger on one particular reason for the sudden jump in his ownership, but here are several ideas.

Read the rest of this entry »

Whether it’s beefing up for your head to head playoffs or just looking to boost yourself in a particular category as your roto season winds down, there are still guys out there on your waiver wire that can be of service to you if you dig deep enough.  We usually differentiate here between regular waiver wire pieces and deep league waiver wire pieces based on ownership percentages, but at this stage of the game, the depth of your league shouldn’t matter much.  If a guy can help, he can help.  Here’s two to consider…

Read the rest of this entry »

A few rookies called up recently, Jason Kipnis, Brett Lawrie and Johnny Giavotella, have made a splash in their short time in the majors so far. The following is a look at the areas of concern for each player going forward that may bring their hot starts back to earth.
Read the rest of this entry »

Yesterday the Tigers traded for light hitting outfielder in Delmon Young. That would seem fitting, considering they seemed to be full of them already. I’m going to focus on the one that will likely have the most fantasy impact going forward.

Read the rest of this entry »

I always love an under dog story and this season that love story has come in the form of Ryan Roberts. The thirty year-old has hit 5 more home runs this season than in his 5 previous MLB seasons combined. Even though a few older players finally are able to break out (see Jose Bautista), the data shows that Ryan probably won’t be one of the those players. My heart is still pulling for him though.

Ryan was drafted in 2003 by the Toronto Blue Jays in the 18th round. In 8 minor league seasons, he hit for a triple slash line of 0.274/0.373/0.448. Not shabby, but nothing to really write home about. During his minor league days he hit 96 home runs, or 1 every 33 PA. During that time frame, both of the Toronto Blue Jays and Texas Rangers released him before he ended up signing with Arizona. With Arizona he was able to get a total of 422 PA in 2009 and 2010. In the 5 seasons he saw MLB playing time, he hit for a slash line of 0.251/0.333/0.389 in 453 PA.

In 2011, not that much has changed in Ryan, except he has decided to begin hitting with more power. His slash line this season is 0.259/0.355/0.447. His AVG and OBP are nearly the same, but his SLG has increase quite a bit. It is being fueled by 15 HRs, or 1 every 26 PA. This rate is better than he did in his minor league career. This jump in home runs can further be seen in his increase in HR/FB% from a previous value of 7.1% to 12.8% this season. He is actually hitting just about the same percentage of fly balls (42.5%) compared to his career value (43.6%).

The increase in home runs could actually be from hitting the ball further this season. The following is a graph of his average batted ball distances over the past 3 years on fly balls and home runs.

It can be seen that even during this season, he is not hitting the ball as far. The previous graph almost mirrors the following graph of his ISO over the last 3 years.

I don’t see any signs of his home run power being real.

The one addition trait for Ryan is that he has stolen 14 bases in 21 attempts this season. In his previous 5 seasons, he had a total of 7 SB in 10 attempts. Thirty year-olds are not really known for their speed break outs. I would be amazed if he continued to get the green light in the future.

As much as my heart wants the journey man/late bloomer to be the real deal, the information shows that this season is pointing to a career year for Ryan and not much more. His power burst this season is hallow and he is not going to enjoy the speed numbers going forward considering his age.

The Royals took another step forward in “The Process” Friday, promoting 24-year-old second basemen Johnny Giavotella to the big league club. Any move that severally limits the number of at bats of Chris Getz receives is a step in the right direction.

The 2008 draft is beginning to pay early dividends for the Royals. They selected Eric Hosmer third overall and took promising lefty Mike Montgomery 36th. Hosmer is a rookie of the year candidate already while Montgomery had stellar minor league numbers until running into a hiccup in the Pacific Coast League this season. In the second round, with the 49th overall pick, they selected Giavotella. The diminutive second basemen has hit well in every level of the minors, compiling a career line of .305/.375/.437 in 1971 plate appearances. His wOBA over the last two seasons at Double-A and Triple have been .390 and .383 respectively.

While those figures are impressive it’s important to notice that Giavotella played in some very hitter friendly ballparks. His home park at Northwest Arkansas in Double-A was extremely kind to hitters, and while the Triple-A Omaha Royals’ park is extremely neutral it is member of the Pacific Coast League. The average hitter in the PCL this season has a slash line of .287/.360/.453. So…yeah. This is why wRC+ was invented. It tells you how much better or worse a player was than league average, with 100 being the baseline. Giavotella’s wRC+ at AA and AAA were 139 and 116, so he was 39% and 16% better than league average at those levels. Those numbers are still good of course; just not as good as a ~.386 wOBA would have you believe. That’s not taking into account his position, though. An above average second basemen is extremely valuable, both in real life and here in our fantasy world.

Second base has become one of the deeper positions with players like Michael Cuddyer, Michael Young and Ryan Roberts qualifying there. Giavotella is going to get a chance to play every day and show the Royals what he can do leading into 2012. He’s hit well in the five games since his call up and ZiPS gives him a final line of .278/.336/.398 with 2 HR, 4 SB, and 13 RBI in 145 plate appearances. That’s more than you’re likely to get out of Maicer Izturis, Justin Turner, Jemile Weeks and Alexi Casilla to name a few. For now he’s a solid pickup in A.L. only leagues and could prove to be a viable starter in mixed leagues in 2012.

Today I am am looking at the top 20 2B for the rest of the season. I am not taking into account if they should be moved up or down for keeper value, just their production this season. I am looking for healthy and versatile players on teams looking to make a playoff run to maximize playing time. The following is my rankings with notes on some players.

1. Dustin Pedroia – It took him a while to get going, but the SB ability ranks him above Cano.
2. Robinson Cano – Finally knocked off the top perch. He is solid, but lacking the SB.
3. Ben Zobrist – I put him over the next two do to position flexibility.
4. Ian Kinsler – Pedroia without the average.
5. Chase Utley – Utley has really picked it up and is putting up HRs and SBs at near Pedroia pace.

The following 4 (#6 to #9) may not put up the numbers of the next 3 (#10 to #12), but their multiple position elligibilites are a must at the end of the season. With most league’s trading deadlines already past or coming up, these hitters can help with roster flexibility if a player on your team hits the DL.

6. Michael Cuddyer
7. Michael Young
8. Daniel Murphy
9. Ryan Roberts – I am not sold at all on him going forward to next season, but 15 HRs and 14 SB in about 100 PA less than most of the other 2B is not shabby.

I like the following 4 2B quite a bit. If you own any of them, there is not much of a reason to look for an upgrade.

10. Brandon Phillips
11. Danny Espinosa
12. Neil Walker
13. Howie Kendrick

14. Dustin Ackley – I would have him much higher for a team out of contention in a keeper league. I could see him struggle as pitchers begin to adjust to him.
15. Martin Prado
16. Kelly Johnson – Really streaky. I drafted him in too many leagues and he is driving me nuts.
17. Dan Uggla – Extremely one dimensional with his 22 HRs (and the Runs and RBI that go with it). Could definitely be higher or lower on the list depending an owners need for HRs.
18. Rickie Weeks – A player must be on the field to help and he may not be available until September. If an owner is in contention in a keeper league, it may be wise to trade him off for a lesser talent to help with the final push.
19. Placido Polanco – Falling hard since he is not able to keep his BA near 0.300.
20. Jemile Weeks – SBs are elite. AVG is nice. Power is non existent. I about put Gordon Beckham here instead.

At the MLB trade deadline, the Los Angeles Dodgers sent veteran shortstop Rafael Furcal and cash considerations to the St. Louis Cardinals in exchange for minor league outfielder Alex Castellanos.  Tommy Rancel, over in the FanGraphs section, covered the deal when it happened, so now here at RotoGraphs, we’re going to discuss the fantasy ramifications. Read the rest of this entry »

It may not seem like it, but even the most minor MLB trade can have an impact on your fantasy season. While your fantasy outlook shouldn’t change on guys like Ubaldo Jimenez, Michael Bourn or Hunter Pence; value can be found in lesser deals — where players are given new opportunities at playing time. Two recently traded players that may fit that description are Brandon Allen and Jerry Hairston Jr. Will they play a significant role in the last few weeks of your fantasy season?
Read the rest of this entry »