Archive for Roto

The case of Jedd Gyorko, 2014, is a curious one. It’s an ugly one, too, with that .210 batting average and 10 home runs he put up in 443 plate appearances this past season. The San Diego Padres certainly hoped for more given that they signed him to a five-year contract extension, which came with a club option for 2020, in mid-April. Perhaps soon afterward, they began to regret it.

Is this past campaign more of a reflection of Gyorko’s true talent? His production (.249/.301/.444, with 23 home runs, in 525 PAs) in his rookie season more of a fluke? Will more or fewer of his prospective owners in rotisserie, head-to-head, and whatever other types of leagues view them that way? He may be a popular rebound candidate. But how popular?

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In 2013, Daniel Murphy defied all expectations by vaunting into the top-five tier of fantasy second basemen, making him one of the best bargains at the keystone sack and a tempting draft target back in March. Unfortunately, he couldn’t quite keep up the good vibes, as Murphy, despite making his first all-star team this year, slipped from No. 4 to No. 9 at the position in both Zach Sanders’ rankings and ESPN’s Player Rater.

Depending on your point of view, that’s either disappointing or merely the result of a limited offensive player regressing to his mean. Regardless, Murphy, who long ago established himself as a legitimate major league hitter, continued his steady ways at the dish:
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Episode 174

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

Eno Sarris and Nicholas Minnix talk end-of-season first basemen rankings, which went up last week, and what they think of the 2015 prospects for some first basemen, including: Steve Pearce, Chris Davis, Chris Carter, Lucas Duda, and Matt Adams. The analysts also break into some discussion about some general auction and draft strategy related to the position.

As usual, don’t hesitate to tweet us or comment with fantasy questions so that we may answer them in our next episode.

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You can’t choose your last name. Otherwise, we might have to quibble with Neil Walker’s choice, considering his career walk rate is below league average. His impatience doesn’t come with a poor knowledge of the strike zone, however, and that’s probably what helped fuel a semi-breakout season at 29 years old, despite a four-year low in walk rate.

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In July, I wrote a column detailing my concerns about Brian Dozier. Dozier came into July with 51 walks compared to 65 strikeouts, and that plate discipline was a big part of his move into the top tier of fantasy second-base options. By the time I wrote him up on July 28, the 27-year-old had amassed 21 strikeouts, with just one measly walk, since the calendar turned over to July.

Without regurgitating my entire piece from July, I concluded that Dozier was being far more aggressive at the plate, as the 4.50 pitches he saw per plate appearance in June had dropped to less than four pitches per PA. Additionally, pitchers were throwing Dozier fewer fastballs, and he was swinging at offspeed stuff with nearly zero strike-zone discrimination.

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As a resident of the city of Dallas and a Rangers fan when they’re not playing the Astros, it was my impression that Rougned Odor improved as the year went on. Part of that was just the assumption that he gradually acclimated to the big leagues over the course of 400+ PA, and part of that was my perception based on the regrettably occasional Ranger game I watched this year.

But his monthly splits don’t necessarily tell the tale of a guy who improved with more seasoning. Yes, his best month according to wRC+ was September (128), but his next best months were May and June, his first two months in the majors this year. Of course wRC+ is a result-oriented statistic and can be misleading in a small sample size, like a single month, for example. If he was truly acclimating well, we’d expect to see him swinging more at good pitches and less at bad pitches, making more contact, and squaring the ball up more as the year went on. So did he do any of that? Read the rest of this entry »

Somebody had to write about Billy Butler, and I do kind of enjoy finding creative ways to say “this guy really sucked,” so let’s get to it, shall we? Here’s the long and short of it, as told through breakfast analogies: Country Breakfast was a full meal for even the heftiest appetite back in 2012. Last year, he played more like Continental Breakfast, albeit one that still had a waffle iron and maybe even some sausage links under a heat lamp. This year, Butler amounted to little more than a bowl of store-brand corn flakes and an overripe banana. Or, say, a crusty croissant. With no butter.

I’m not even sure where to begin, because Butler regressed in so many ways. His nine home runs were his fewest since hitting eight — in a whopping 243 fewer plate appearances — as a rookie in 2007. His isolated power was a career-worst .107. His 6.8% walk rate was a career-low. His 15.9% strikeout rate was 0.4% shy of being a career-high.

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Miguel Cabrera was the third-best first baseman this year by our end-of-year evaluations, but his owners paid first-best fantasy player prices. Take a look at his isolated power — the main missing component this year — over his career, and last year actually looks familiar. Has Cabrera returned to being the player he was earlier in his career?

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Mike Napoli didn’t have quite the campaign in 2014 fantasy baseball players hoped he would. But, given the mid-round price they paid in mixed leagues, they were clearly prepared for some downside. He batted .248 with a .370 OBP in 500 plate appearances, but it’s the 17 home runs (and largely resultant 55 RBIs) that were a bit disappointing and largely the reason he was basically a replacement-level asset in roto leagues this season.

There aren’t any glaring signs of an immediate rebound, either. Napoli will be 33 next year. He has a bad body type. He’s already dealt with various health issues for the past few seasons. He has platoon-split issues. He strikes out pretty frequently. If he isn’t going to hit 25 bombs, then he’s probably not going to be much good in the fake baseball game.

Perhaps there’s some salvageable value, though. Those negatives could drive down his cost significantly. Fantasy owners tend to steer clear of hitters like Napoli. Will he fall, and how much will he, if he does?

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First base has a disproportionate number of hitters who are left-handed and hit for power. As such, there is no position in baseball that has been as impacted by the defensive shift. Pretty much every team has bought into the shift on one level or another, and while some players with extreme pull tendencies escape notice because they do not fit the stereotype (hello Jimmy Rollins!), teams are going to err on the side of shifting players who look like Matt Adams and Lucas Duda.

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