Less than nine months after being the centerpiece of the Roy Halladay trade, 22-year-old Kyle Drabek will make his first big league start tomorrow night against the Orioles in Baltimore. Doug’s son just wrapped his first season in the Blue Jays’ organization, one in which he pitched to a 3.87 FIP with 7.33 K/9 in 27 starts (162 IP, a career high by just four innings) for the team’s Double-A affiliate in New Hampshire.

The statistical performance isn’t overwhelming, especially for a top prospect, but to understand how good Drabek can be you need to know what kind of stuff the kid brings to the table. ESPN’s Keith Law scouting Drabek during his last start, a tough luck loss in the playoffs in which he allowed one run on three hits and two walks in six innings of work, striking out five. Here’s a snippet of KLaw’s write-up from that outing (you need an Insider account to read the whole thing)…

… Wednesday night he brought the best stuff I’ve seen (or heard of) from him, with two plus-plus pitches and an aggressive approach. He started out 93-97 in the first inning and was 91-96 by the end of his outing, hitting 97 at least three times over the first two frames. His power curveball at 84-86 was a big league out pitch, with depth and a very sharp break — and he threw it for strikes in addition to burying it for swings and misses.

He barely used — or needed — his straight changeup, but it’s also not yet on par with the other two pitches. He worked to both sides of the plate and overpowered most of the hitters in Trenton’s weak lineup. Drabek takes a long stride toward the plate and generates great arm speed from it, although he doesn’t rotate his hips much and is off the rubber very quickly. I’m more concerned by his tendency to throw across his body when going to his glove side because of how he cuts himself off in his landing. Those two pitches do give him ace potential that I hadn’t seen from him, although the lack of a solid third offering and the minor delivery issues probably give him a realistic ceiling just below that.

Clearly, Drabek has the pure stuff needed to succeed in the big leagues, it’s just a question of whether or not he can take that next step, and how quickly he can do it. The big problem this year was walks; his 3.8 BB/9 in 2010 isn’t horrible, but certainly not what you usually see out of elite pitching prospects. Drabek is now two years out from Tommy John surgery, so his command should have come back by now. For what it’s worth, his BB/9 was a full walk lower at 2.8 last season and 3.8 before his surgery.

Chances are your league is deep in the playoffs now, so the idea of rolling the dice with a complete unknown – granted, a high-upside unknown – might not sit well with some. The Orioles are a below average hitting team against fastballs (-15.1 wFB) and one of the worst against curveballs (-14.1 wCB), Drabek’s two bread-and-butter pitches. Of course it’s not that simple, but if the righty avoids the rookie jitters and manages to throw like he’s capable of (and not overthrow, that’s the big thing), he’s a very good chance that he’ll have one of those blow-you-away debuts.

If you have a comfortable lead in ERA and WHIP (or are way behind, for that matter) and can afford to take a bit of a hit in those categories in exchange for some additional strikeouts and possibly a win, I can’t recommend Drabek enough. He’s owned in just 4% of Yahoo! leagues, so there’s not much urgency to go out and grab him before everyone else. Keep an eye out for the O’s lineup tomorrow; If Buck Showalter decides to go heavy on the September call-ups for some reason, then I’d grab Drabek before the game if your league allows it. Either way, Drabek’s real fantasy impact won’t come until at least next season.

Bryan Smith already did a wonderful job breaking down Aroldis Chapman and his role with the Reds down the stretch, but now let’s examine the fantasy impact of the next big Cuban star.

Chapman, 22, is coming up to pitch out of Dusty Baker’s bullpen in September, so right off the bat his value is diminished. Very few non-closer relievers are worth carrying on your roster in traditional leagues, unless maybe you’re in a roto league and looking to vulture some wins late in the season. With that said, Chapman could mirror a Hong-Chih Kuo type in the best case scenario; a super-high strikeout lefthanded reliever not limited to LOOGY work (I’m not counting his most recent work as the closer).

I doubt Chapman will be able to match Kuo’s stingy walk rate (2.77 K/9), at least initially; he’s walked 3.6 men per nine innings as a reliever in the minors, 4.9 overall, but it’s worth noting that he’s walked just four in a dozen appearances this month. The rest of the goods are there. He’s death to lefthanders, striking out 53 against just 15 walks with a 51.5% ground ball rate in 32.2 IP in the minors, and good against righties (9.63 K/9 in 66.1 IP). It’s easy to understand why he dominates same-sided batters with his top shelf velocity and slider, not to mention his all arms and legs delivery.

But how useful is he for us fantasy owners? Dusty Baker is than willing to trust young pitchers, which works in Chapman’s favor, but realistically we’re looking at maybe 3-4 innings a week. There’s almost a zero chance of him usurping Francisco Cordero without the help of an injury, and even in that case Nick Masset and Arthur Rhodes are probably first in line to fill-in. If you’re league counts holds, then maybe he’s worth more of a consideration.

Despite the hype, I’d tread carefully with Chapman. The reward is very limited given his role, but the blowup potential is pretty damn big at this point in time. He’s owned in 20% of Yahoo! leagues, but it’s too much of a gamble for me this late in the season. With September right around the corner, it’s a too little, too late for Chapman to have any real fantasy impact.

A pair of recent call-ups, one recognizable, another not so much…

Cameron Maybin | OF | Marlins | 4% owned

In their never-ending pursuit of acquiring every available outfielder on the market, the Giants opened up a spot for the once highly touted Maybin by taking on Cody Ross. Maybin has certainly had his chances in the big leagues, with a .307 wOBA in 489 plate appearances spread across four seasons. It’s hard to believe that he’s still just 23, so we definitely can’t tag him as a bust yet.

For fantasy purposes, Maybin’s greatest value comes from steals, as he has the ability to swipe a half-dozen or more from here on out. He won’t help much in regular old head-to-head leagues, but if you’re in a roto scoring league, those extra steals will certainly help.

Ivan Nova | SP | Yankees | 1%

Nova pitched well in his first career start last night, limiting the Blue Jays to just two runs over 5.1 innings of work. He was yanked a bit early – just 73 pitches – because there was some alleged beanball nonsense going on and Joe Girardi didn’t want to subject his rookie righthander to anything like that. Seems kinda lame, but it is what it is. The Yankees have not committed a rotation spot to Nova going forward, but they have indicated that he will make a few more starts over the next few weeks as the team tries to keep their regular starters rested. It’s not out of the realm of possibility that he takes Javy Vazquez’s job outright at some point, given the latter’s disintegrating stuff.

The 23-year-old righty won’t blow you away with sky high strikeout totals or microscopic ERA’s, instead he’s more of a matchup starter that post a low-4.00’s ERA and could steal you some wins given the lineup and bullpen around him. If you’re in an AL-only or deep mixed league, keep an eye on Nova’s schedule and see what’s in store. The Yanks have both the White Sox and A’s coming up, hardly powerhouse offenses.

Update: The Yanks just announced that Vazquez is being skipped the next time through the rotation, and Nova will start on Sunday at the White Sox.

Ownership rates based on Yahoo! leagues.

One of the six players they received from the Diamondbacks in the Dan Haren trade, the Athletics are actually Chris Carter’s third organization. He was originally a 15th round pick by the White Sox in 2005, but they traded him straight up for Carlos Quentin in December of 2007. Eleven days later, Carter was swapped as part of the package for Haren, and 968 days after that, he made his Major League debut.

Before the trade, Carter slugged .522 (.224 ISO) with a 12.5 BB% and 24.0 K% as a 20-year-old in the Low-A South Atlantic League, certainly strong numbers for a kid playing 100+ games in a season for the first time. His power output exploded the next season, unsurprising in the notoriously hitter friendly High-A Cal League. Carter’s .310 ISO led the circuit by 40 points thanks to his 39 homers, and he still maintained a solid 12.9 BB%. The problem were the strikeouts, which clocked in at 30.8 K%, second highest in the league. Regardless, Baseball America ranked him the 76th best prospect in the game after the season.

Bumped up to Double-A Midland to start 2009, Carter enjoyed his finest pro season. Not only did he again lead the league in ISO (.239, led by 46 pts), but he still showed the same patient approach (13.8 BB%) while cutting down on the strike threes (24.3 K%). As a reward for his efforts, he received a statistically insignificant 13 game cameo with Triple-A Sacramento at the end of the season. All told, Carter posted career highs across the board in 2009 when he hit .329/.422/.570, and was named the 28th best prospect in baseball by the Baseball America gang after the campaign.

At 6-foot-5 and 230 lbs., Carter certainly passes the eye test as a power hitter. “Home runs always will be Carter’s calling card,” said the BA crew before the season started. “However, he dedicated himself to becoming a more complete hitter and stopped giving away at-bats … With his pure strength and explosive wrists, he still produces light-tower power. Carter can hit balls out of any part of any ballpark, and he’s strong enough to do so without having to sell out for power.” On the downside, they also note that he can get anxious at the plate and tends to jump at breaking balls, something that Carter will obviously have to work on.

Sent back to Triple-A to start the 2010 season, the A’s best prospect hit .262/.368/.531 with 27 homers in 503 plate appearances before getting the call over the weekend. He played his first game last night, going 0-for-3 with a pair of strikeouts, seeing a total of ten pitches as the A’s lost to Seattle.

Before the season, CHONE projected a .232/.311/.393 batting line for Carter, while ZiPS rest of the season projection has him at .233/.317/.416. Those high strikeout guys can have a tough time adjusting to big league pitching when they first get called up (cough Mike Stanton cough), so those predictions shouldn’t come as a surprise. Currently eligible at just 1B, Carter is playing LF for the A’s, so it’s only a matter of time before he gains eligibility there. He actually started his career as a third baseman (and even played a game at short in the minors), but that boat is long gone. 1B/OF will be his primary spots from here on out, and he isn’t particularly good at either (not that it matters here).

Given his home park and the offense around him, Carter’s fantasy value is likely to be low over the next two months and probably even next season. Given the rather mammoth production coming out of first baseman these days (seriously, 1B across the league are hitting .269/.354/.458) and some of the strong outfielders out there, I wouldn’t consider Carter for anything more than a injury fill-in at this point. If he goes on a tear and hits five homers in a week like he’s capable of, then by all means grab him. I’m just not confident in his ability to come up and produce right away.

When the Atlanta Braves selected Mike Minor seventh overall in the 2009 draft, some prospect pundits labeled the pick an uncharacteristically conservative move by an organization known for favoring high-upside prep players. A Vanderbilt product, Minor was regarded as a four-pitch lefty without a plus offering. He was expected to reach the majors in short order, but his ceiling wasn’t considered commensurate with what’s anticipated from a single-digit pick.

A little more than a year later, Minor has proven to be a fast mover. With Kris Medlen (UCL tear) possibly headed for Tommy John surgery, Minor will make his big league debut this coming Monday against the Houston Astros. But that’s not all — after a dominant minor league season, Minor has talent evaluators re-thinking his long-term potential.

At the time Minor was drafted, Baseball America described him as a soft-tossing southpaw who wouldn’t fool many pro hitters. Given the Commodores connection, Minor elicited comparisons to Jeremy Sowers:

Like Sowers, Minor has more pitchability than stuff, with a fastball in the 86-89 mph range and a plus changeup that grades as his best pitch. His other strongest attribute could be his pickoff move, a weapon he broke out repeatedly against Cuba last summer. Minor’s future may depend on his breaking stuff. He formerly threw a slider as his primary breaking ball, and at times it was an above-average pitch with depth. He showed he could throw the pitch for strikes or bury it. Minor added a solid curveball this fall and threw four pitches for strikes this spring, but some scouts think the curve has sapped some of the life off the rest of his offerings.

Minor signed for an above-slot $2.42 million bonus, then tossed 14 scoreless in the Low-A South Atlantic League with a 17/0 K/BB ratio and one run allowed. He also got 16.2 innings of work in the Arizona Fall League, surrendering 10 runs with a 12/6 K/BB. According to BA’s J.J. Cooper, Minor averaged about 90.9 MPH with his heater in the AFL and topped out at 93.8 MPH.

In 2010, the 22-year-old opened the season with Mississippi in the Double-A Southern League. He was hardly the finesse, control-oriented hurler that most anticipated — Minor whiffed 109 batters in 87 innings pitched (11.3 K/9), walking 3.5 per nine and giving up 0.8 HR/9. While his 4.03 ERA didn’t stand out, that was due in large part to a .371 batting average on balls in play. Minor’s park-and-luck adjusted FIP, according to Minor League Splits, was 3.29.

It has been more of the same since he was promoted to the Triple-A International League — Minor’s got 10 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 0.3 HR/9 and a 2.97 adjusted FIP in 33.1 frames with the Gwinnett Braves. He has been neutral in terms of ground ball/fly ball tendencies, with a 44.1 GB% between the two levels. Per Minor League Splits, Minor’s pitching at Mississippi and Gwinnett translates to 8.1 K/9, 4.9 BB/9 and 1.1 HR/9 at the major league level.

It’s not just the numbers that are better than anticipated. Minor’s once-modest fastball is popping the mitt with more gusto. Last month, BA’s Jim Callis described the changes in Minor’s stuff:

He’s ditched the curve, and his stuff is sharper. I don’t think anyone was anticipating his velo jump, not even the Braves, but I got several reports he’s hitting 95-96 mph consistently. As a result, he’s not quite throwing as many strikes as he used to. For me, he’s more of a No. 3 starter now [with] a chance to be a 2 if he maintains the velo and improves his control. When he was drafted, I thought he was a No. 4 at best.

With more zip on his fastball, as well as a quality changeup and solid slider, Minor ranked got an honorable mention on BA’s mid-season top 25 prospects list.

Given the large disparity between Minor’s college and pro scouting reports, it will be interesting to see if he maintains his new found velocity over the long haul. The spike in punch outs has come with more walks, but the trade-off has certainly been a net positive. At the very least, we can safely, thankfully leave that Sowers comp in the rear view mirror. Minor is worth picking up in most every league, as his spruced-up stuff gives him bat-missing ability few thought he’d possess.

A day late, but here’s some recent call ups to consider for your squad…

J.P. Arencibia | C | Blue Jays | 1% owned

The Jays lost starting catcher John Buck to the disabled list after the backstop took a foul tip off his right hand today, opening up a laceration on his thumb (don’t they teach you to keep your throwing hand behind your back?), and have replaced him by calling up one of their best prospects in Arencibia. The powerful yet free swinging 24-year-old hit a (park adjusted) .291/.348/.601 with 31 homers in 420 plate appearances this season, raising his homer total to 79 since the start of 2008.

I wrote a little bit about Arencibia earlier this month, noting that his likely homerun production makes him a viable fantasy option even if he provide little in terms of AVG (and OBP). Nothing’s changed, except now he has a clear path towards some playing time for the next two weeks or so.

Sean West | SP | Marlins | 0%

You are forewarned, I’m a bigger West fan that most. Something about a 6-foot-8 lefty with a fastball in the low-90’s excites me. He followed up last season’s 4.49 FIP (103.1 IP) with strong peripherals in Triple-A this season (7.2 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 43.9% grounders), and now gets the chance to prove himself in the place of the departed Nate Robertson. West allowed a pair of homers and struck out four Phillies in five innings of work against the yesterday, and going forward he’s clearly just a matchup guy. (R) ZiPS doesn’t like West at all, for what it’s worth (5.32 FIP, 6.62 K/9).

His next two starts come at home against the Cards and in Cincinnati, but after that he lines up to face the Pirates and Mets (in CitiField). Plan ahead, and you might end up stealing a W and a few ERA points.

Ownership rates are based on Yahoo! leagues.

According to Tom Krasovic of AOL Fanhouse, the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim will call up OF Peter Bourjos from Triple-A Salt Lake. Bourjos might not crack the lineup on a regular basis, but let’s take a look at his long-term fantasy value.

Bourjos, 23, was selected in the tenth round of the 2005 amateur draft. The Arizona prep product intrigued scouts with his scorching speed and ability to cover wide swaths of territory, and the Angels opened up the check book to give him an above-slot $325,000 signing bonus. Bourjos batted .292/.354/.472 in 279 Pioneer League plate appearances during his ’06 pro debut, stealing 13 bases and getting caught five times. Following the season, Baseball America called him an “easy, graceful runner” and said he had more power than his 6-1, 180 pound frame suggested, but BA also called his strike-zone control “crude.”

Unfortunately, Bourjos wouldn’t get a full season’s worth of reps in 2007 to work out the kinks in his plate discipline. The righty batter suffered a left hand injury that he initially tried to play through, but he finally gave in and had surgery to repair a ruptured ligament in May. In 270 PA in the Low-A Midwest League, Bourjos put up a .274/.335/.426 line, with a 7.4% walk rate, a 22.4 K% and a .152 ISO. He nabbed 19 bases, though he was caught stealing nine times as well. Talent evaluators continued to question whether Bourjos’ bat would play at the upper levels of the minors. “His approach,” BA said, “vacillates from at-bat to at-bat, he’s busy in his setup and he often lacks balance through his swing.”

The next season, Bourjos was bumped up to the High-A California League. He hit .295/.326/.444 in 545 PA, and he was a monster on the base paths (50-for-60 in SB attempts, good for an 83.3% success rate). Bourjos just about never walked (3.5 BB%), while K’ing 18.9% and posting a .149 ISO. The Cal League is a great place to hit, so Bourjos’ park-and-luck-adjusted line was a little less impressive at .280/.311/.429. While again praising Bourjos’ plus defense and base-stealing talents, BA said:

There are still questions about Bourjos’ bat. He has a funky swing and tough he showed improvement, he still chases pitches out of the zone and rarely walks. He’ll need to show a much more patient approach to realize his potential as a leadoff hitter.

In 2009, Bourjos made some strides in terms of not getting himself out. The speedster slashed .281/.354/.423 in 504 Double-A Texas League PA, drawing ball four 9.7%, whiffing 17.6% and compiling a .142 ISO. On the bases, he was 32-for-44 (a 72.3% success rate). A ligament tear in his left wrist necessitated off-season surgery, but that didn’t put much of a damper on a season in which he progressed at the plate. Baseball America was most enthusiastic about Bourjos’ prospect status, ranking him #97 on the publication’s top 100 list. John Sickels graded him as a B- talent. Bourjos didn’t make Keith Law’s top 100.

At Salt Lake of the Triple-A Pacific Coast League, Bourjos has hit .314/.364/.498 in 455 PA, with 27 SB in 32 tries. His park-and-luck adjusted line, by contrast, is .289/.341/.467. Those strike zone gains didn’t make the trip with him to the PCL, as Bourjos as a 5.3 BB%. He has struck out 18.9% and has a .184 ISO, the product of lots of triples (twelve) and a park-aided 13 home runs.

Chances are, Bourjos would struggle mightily if given everyday ABs in the big leagues. His major league equivalent line is .255/.294/.401 according to Minor League Splits, and CHONE projects him for a .255/.300/.375 showing. It’s worth noting, however, that Sean Smith’s Total Zone adores Bourjos’ defense. That could come into play, considering the Angels’ outfielders have been a collective 18 runs below average, according to Ultimate Zone Rating.

Bourjos isn’t likely to have much fantasy value right now. His wheels make him attractive to fantasy owners in the long-term, and his run-saving D gives him a good chance to carve out a starting role in the not-too-distant future. It’d surely be appreciated, though, if he could stop hacking so much.

With Ryan Ludwick headed to San Diego as part of a three-team swap that netted St. Louis Jake Westbrook, Jon Jay’s role with the Cards will expand. The 25-year-old’s big league career is off to a scorching start — in 130 plate appearances, Jay’s bat has already been worth +11 runs. What’s the Chief Justice’s fantasy value? Let’s take a look.

Jay was selected out of Miami in the second round of the 2006 amateur draft. At the time, Baseball America described the lefty hitter as “a classic tweener outfielder who doesn’t profile as an everyday player on a championship club.” BA lauded his plate approach, but lamented the lack of “leverage and loft” in his swing. Jay began his pro career in the Low-A Midwest League that summer, and he did what you’d expect a second-team All American to do against less experienced hurlers — he raked (.342/.416/.462 in 268 PA).

Unfortunately, Jay wouldn’t get much of a chance to build upon that robust beginning — in 2007, he hit the DL three times. Jay was shelved twice with a shoulder injury and also became a spectator due to a wrist ailment. His hitting suffered, as Jay put up a .265/.328/.387 line in 253 PA split between the High-A Florida State League and the Double-A Texas League. He walked in 6.3% of his PA, while striking out 19.6% and posting a .122 ISO. BA noted that scouts were skeptical about his ability to hit at the upper levels of the minors, disliking his “quirky hand pumps and bat waggles at the plate.”

The next season, however, Jay’s prospect status recovered. In 491 PA spent mostly in the Texas League (he got a late-season promotion to the Triple-A Pacific Coast League), the Founding Father batted .312/.382/.463. Jay’s walk rate climbed to a decent 9.2%, whiffing 13% and improving his ISO to 151. He returned to the PCL in 2009, where hit slashed .281/.338/.394 in 564 PA. Prior to getting the big league call-up in late April, Jay hit .321/.394/.491 in 191 PCL PA. His overall line in 819 PA at the Triple-A level is .295/.356/.424, with a seven percent rate of free passes taken, a 13.2 K% and a .129 ISO.

Jay’s got a smoldering .382/.433/.583 big league line and a .425 wOBA, but it’s wise not to get overly excited. Putting aside that more than 43% of his balls put in play have fallen for hits so far, Jay’s minor league track record isn’t all that distinguished. He’s not especially patient at the dish, and as his .131 league ISO and near-50% ground ball rate on the farm suggest, his power potential is limited. With St. Louis, he might eventually end up platooned with Allen Craig — Jay’s career line against lefties in the minors is .259/.336/.349 (Craig’s is .303/.358/.542).

That’s not to say that Jay is without his uses, as Sean Smith’s Total Zone suggests Jay would be a plus defender in an outfielder corner, and CHONE projects that he’ll hit .288/.347/.425 in the majors. For fantasy purposes, Jay looks more like a solid major leaguer who’ll need a caddy against same-handed pitching than a breakout star.

For a player taken with the 13th overall pick in the 2008 draft, Brett Wallace sure has spent a lot of time packing suitcases. The Arizona State Sun Devil star was originally selected by the Cardinals, but he was shipped to the A’s as part of a trade for Matt Holliday last July. Oakland then swapped him to the Blue Jays this past off-season in a rare prospect challenge trade, with outfielder Michael Taylor going to the green and gold. And yesterday, the Astros acquired Wallace in exchange for Anthony Gose, a 19-year-old OF prospect just picked up in the Roy Oswalt deal with the Phillies. In Houston, “The Walrus” looks like the heir apparent to Lance Berkman at first base.

Wallace was a third baseman in college, and he mostly manned the hot corner in the minors up until this season. But scouts panned his work there (Baseball America said he “lacks the agility and athleticism for the position”), and Sean Smith’s Total Zone rated him as a poor fielder. The stoutly-built 23-year-old shifted to first base with the Jays’ Triple-A affiliate in 2010. It’s not much of an exaggeration to say that Wallace’s value lies entirely in the quality of his bat. So, how good is that bat?

Here’s what Baseball America had to say about his offensive ability prior to the ’08 draft:

Many see the best natural hitter in the West. Wallace has a strong swing with above-average bat speed; his swing path stays in the zone a long time and he has outstanding plate discipline…Those that don’t care for him cite his body and the short careers of players built similarly, such as Bob Hamelin. Wallace’s bat should get him drafted in the first round regardless, and most scouts give him at least above-average raw power grades.

Wallace hit the ground running in pro ball in 2008, putting up a .337/.427/.530 line in 234 plate appearances spent mostly in the Low-A Midwest League (he also logged some time in the Double-A Texas League). The lefty hitter walked in 8.1% of his PA, punched out 19.3% and had a .193 ISO. Wallace didn’t draw a ton of walks and he did benefit from a .400+ BABIP, but it was still a quality debut.

Since then, Wallace has hit well, though it would be difficult to say that he has lived up to the “hitting machine” label often bestowed upon him. Last season, he batted a combined .293/.367/.455 in 600 PA taken in Texas League and the Triple-A Pacific Coast League (for the affiliates of both the A’s and Cardinals). He worked a free pass just 7.8%, while striking out 21.8% and posting a .162 ISO. In 2010, Wallace has hit .301/.359/.509 in 423 PCL plate appearances. Wallace has walked 6.4%, whiffed 21.6% and holds a .208 ISO. It’s worth noting that Cashman Field, home of the Las Vegas 51’s, is a fantastic offensive environment. According to Minor League Splits, Wallace’s park-adjusted line is .287/.349/.479.

Considering Wallace’s limited positional value, I think it’s fair to say that his lumber to date has been somewhat underwhelming. Though BA once praised his plate approach, Wallace hasn’t drawn all that many walks. And that above-average raw power hasn’t really been on full display. It’s not that he projects poorly in the majors, but his secondary skills don’t exactly stand out a position with a cumulative .270/.355/.460 triple-slash in 2010. Wallace could become an average starter at first base, perhaps a tick above that if you’re optimistic. But I don’t see a future offensive juggernaut here.

Shane Victorino hit the disabled list earlier today with a strained abdominal muscle suffered when he dove back into first base last night, so now the Phillies are replacing him with the best prospect in baseball: outfielder Domonic Brown. Most of us expected Brown to get the call once the team traded Jayson Werth, but Victorino’s injury makes such a deal unlikely. Werth will instead shift to center to take over for the Flyin Hawaiian, and Brown will assume everyday rightfield duties. He’s in the lineup tonight, batting sixth.

Both Baseball America and Keith Law ranked Brown as the game’s best prospect at midseason, and with good reason. The 607th overall pick in the 2006 started his career as a tall and lanky 18-year-old that oozed athleticism but needed to learn how to convert his physical gifts into baseball skills. Brown has done that and then some, improving his performance each year of his career and with each climb up the ladder. Here’s his progression, using basic triple-slash stats:

2006: .214/.292/.265 in rookie ball
2007: .299/.363/.415 in mostly short season ball
2008: .291/.382/.417 in Low-A
2009: .299/.377/.504 with ~60% of his PA in High-A and ~40% in Double-A
2010: .327/.391/.589 with ~70% of his PA in Double-A and ~30% in Triple-A

“A free swinger as an amateur, Brown has developed a solid eye at the plate and recognizes pitches well,” said the BA gang when they ranked him the game’s 15th best prospect before the season. “The biggest question on Brown’s upside revolves around how much power he’ll develop. Some Double-A Eastern League observers thought his power would be average at best and would limit him to hitting at the top of the lineup, rather than being a middle-of-the-lineup factor.” KLaw wasn’t as skeptical about his pop, saying Brown “has 30-plus homer potential” when he ranked him the 14th best prospect in baseball before the season. As you can see above, Brown has increased his ISO’s from .126 to .205 to .262 in each of the last three seasons, so the power is definitely coming.

The Phillies promoted their best prospect to Triple-A for the first time this season after he hit .318/.391/.602 at Double-A Reading in the first half, and the 22-year-old has hit .346/.390/.561 in 118 plate appearances since the move. His MLE sits at .289/.320/.456 this season (according to MinorLeagueSplits.com), though CHONE was a bit more pessimistic before the season, predicting a .248/.348/.303 line. I’d definitely expect more of the former, especially playing regularly in Citizen’s Bank Park. He’ll even steal some bases, averaging close to 25 SB per 500 plate appearances in his minor league life.

Brown has exhibited a bit of a platoon split in each season of his career except 2008, but that appears to be an outlier at this point. Generally speaking, it’s about a 100 point drop in OPS, which is tolerable for a guy with a bat like this. We’re not talking about an Andre Ethier (or worse, a Curtis Granderson) kind of split here. I’d probably sit him against the better lefties at least early on just until he gets his feet wet, but there’s no question that Brown will be a viable fantasy outfielder almost immediately. There’s plenty of help around him in the lineup, so he’ll have RBI opportunities, and there’s nothing blocking his playing time (except for Ben Francisco’s .318 wOBA).

Brown has already been gobbled up in 9% of Yahoo! leagues, so make sure you run out and grab him while you can. He could play his way into #2 outfielder status by next month, and obviously has the potential to be even better going forward for those of you lucky enough to have him in a keeper league.