I am currently the proud owner of two Ottoneu teams, both in their third year of existence. Of the 80 players between the two rosters, just six of them are prospects.

This is not, in my experience, the typical roster construction. Most teams in my leagues have been carrying anywhere from 5-10 prospects, with losing teams maybe carrying significantly more. Both of my teams are in their third seasons; one has been solid in both years (third in 2011, first in 2012), the other jumped from 10th in 2011 to second in 2012. In general, I’ll pick up a few prospects as the season goes on, but I particularly avoid prospects in the auction.

Questionable strategy? Perhaps. Prospects provide access to the cheapest talent money can buy in ottoneu. So here’s why I do it:

Read the rest of this entry »

The Yasiel Puig movement is starting in Los Angeles. Carlos Beltran is hurt in St. Louis and the temptation is to turn to Oscar Taveras. And Wil Myers was the biggest prospect traded this offseason, and he’s on a team that could use a corner outfielder. What to do with these young outfielders in redraft leagues?

Read the rest of this entry »

It’s time for the second annual Top 100 Fantasy Rookies, a list of 100 prospects who should make an impact on the 2013 fantasy baseball season. Just how much impact? In some cases, a lot; but in others, it may be minimal — or even negligible. That’s the inherent risk in predicting and projecting not only prospects’ development curves but also how these players possibly fit into their big league teams’ plans during the upcoming season.

That’s why, much like with my Mining the Minors columns, I’ve incorporated both talent and opportunity into each prospect’s ranking. Sometimes, a player’s talent is so elite that it’s worth bumping him up the rankings even if his path to playing time isn’t all that clear (think: Mike Trout last year). But there are also plenty of players in these rankings who skew toward the opportunity side of the spectrum, because they’re (nearly) ready to be in the majors on Opening Day (read: David Phelps, 2012). Trying to weigh and balance these two aspects — talent and opportunity — is what makes a list like this so challenging. And so fluid. Which is to say, my mind could change on any of the players on the list between today and tomorrow. Or even today and later today.

Here’s the third batch, from Grant Green to Anthony Rendon.

Nos. 100-81
Nos 80-61

Read the rest of this entry »

While pretty much the entire Fangraphs staff was in Arizona, your intrepid author eschewed the desert for the tropical breezes of Florida. Different teams. Higher chance of rain. Lots more driving!

Anyway, I traveled around the Sunshine State hitting up minor league camps, watching minor league games and also checking in on some of the best amateurs for the upcoming MLB Draft and International signing period. It’s very difficult to plan these things out ahead because teams haven’t really plotted much out by the time I booked my trip, but I managed to catch some of the better prospects in the game despite that. Today I figured I’d share some observations on players I saw:

Read the rest of this entry »

It’s time for the second annual Top 100 Fantasy Rookies, a list of 100 prospects who should make an impact on the 2013 fantasy baseball season. Just how much impact? In some cases, a lot; but in others, it may be minimal — or even negligible. That’s the inherent risk in predicting and projecting not only prospects’ development curves but also how these players possibly fit into their big league teams’ plans during the upcoming season.

That’s why, much like with my Mining the Minors columns, I’ve incorporated both talent and opportunity into each prospect’s ranking. Sometimes, a player’s talent is so elite that it’s worth bumping him up the rankings even if his path to playing time isn’t all that clear (think: Mike Trout last year). But there are also plenty of players in these rankings who skew toward the opportunity side of the spectrum, because they’re (nearly) ready to be in the majors on Opening Day (read: David Phelps, 2012). Trying to weigh and balance these two aspects — talent and opportunity — is what makes a list like this so challenging. And so fluid. Which is to say, my mind could change on any of the players on the list between today and tomorrow. Or even today and later today.

Here’s the second batch, from Ryan Jackson to Jackie Bradley.

Nos. 100-81

Read the rest of this entry »

It’s time for the second annual Top 100 Fantasy Rookies, a list of 100 prospects who should make an impact on the 2013 fantasy baseball season. Just how much impact? In some cases, a lot; but in others, it may be minimal — or even negligible. That’s the inherent risk in predicting and projecting not only prospects’ development curves but also how these players possibly fit into their big league teams’ plans during the upcoming season.

That’s why, much like with my Mining the Minors columns, I’ve incorporated both talent and opportunity into each prospect’s ranking. Sometimes, a player’s talent is so elite that it’s worth bumping him up the rankings even if his path to playing time isn’t all that clear (think: Mike Trout last year). But there are also plenty of players in these rankings who skew toward the opportunity side of the spectrum, because they’re (nearly) ready to be in the majors on Opening Day (read: David Phelps, 2012). Trying to weigh and balance these two aspects — talent and opportunity — is what makes a list like this so challenging. And so fluid. Which is to say, my mind could change on any of the players on the list between today and tomorrow. Or even today and later today.

Here’s the first batch, from Christian Yelich to Justin De Fratus.

Read the rest of this entry »

Last week I looked at a few underrated and overrated position player prospects. This week I wanted to follow that up by doing the same thing with some pitching prospects. The rule with prospects is always caveat emptor as they can’t typically be counted on for consistent production or performance. Still, “hitting” on a few helpful guys your league opponents didn’t expect to be useful can lead your team to fantasy glory.

Remember that these players are being evaluated entirely for their 2013 usefulness, without regard to keeper or dynasty implications.

Read the rest of this entry »

J.R. Graham recently was drafted in the third round of an expert league dynasty league I participate in. While that sounds early, consider that each of the 20 teams has 28 keepers, so a majority of the top 100 prospects were already owned and kept before the draft. Regardless, I feel silly for not taking him earlier, though I only had a first round pick and had a glaring need at second base – along with a number of prospects in the high minors. I had him pegged with my third round pick, but he went before I had the opportunity to grab him – my second round pick was traded before the draft. I have a pretty good feeling the owner who drafted him is going to feel great about that pick throughout Graham’s progression through the upper minors and into his time as a major leaguer.

Read the rest of this entry »

In case you haven’t noticed, the past few weeks have brought the unveilings of many of the baseball industry’s most respected and reputable Top Prospects lists. As is, these make for good discussion and great debate, but there’s also a difference between evaluating prospects for real life Major League Baseball and evaluating them from a fantasy baseball perspective. With four Top 100s available for perusal, it’s time to focus on the latter.

This week, we’ll highlight some prospects who are top-of-the-class elite — in fact, each is included in all four of the Top 100s — but actually might be overrated in fantasy compared to reality, given where they stand in these rankings.

For a look at the other angle — Top 100-caliber prospects who are underrated in fantasy compared to reality — you can find it here.

Read the rest of this entry »

It’s unlikely any 2013 rookie will have the impact in fantasy that Mike Trout did last season. Actually, it’s kind of unlikely any rookie will have the kind of fantasy impact that Trout did last season again in our lifetimes. Sure, prospects are generally speaking poor bets for consistent production. Yet, every year a few of these long shot bets come through and pay off big. Over the last decade names such as Trout, Craig Kimbrel, Albert Pujols and Rocco Baldelli all helped bring home fantasy titles to their many delighted owners. You don’t even need to find a Trout – which is good because, again, that’s really unlikely! Sometimes a Todd Frazier fills a need perfectly for a team lacking a third baseman. Hitting on a useful prospect or two like that can really make the difference for your fantasy team.

Read the rest of this entry »