Seeing as my usual Monday beat is second base, I decided to write a piece on minor-league second sackers who could make a fantasy impact down the stretch. As it turns out, that was an entirely fruitless endeavor. There just aren’t any players at the position that I’m excited about for the remainder of 2015, who aren’t already at least on the major-league club.

However, during my 90 minutes or so of dead-end research, I noticed Danny Worth’s shockingly productive stat line. In case you forgot, Worth is that guy the Tigers would always call up for some reason in each of the last five seasons, despite the fact that he owns a career .230/.293/.295 slash in 292 major-league plate appearances.

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As this year’s MLB draft picks have signed their contracts and entered the ottoneu player universe, owners have been auctioning them off like crazy. Dansby Swanson, Alex Bregman, and Brendan Rodgers in particular, have been flying off the shelves, and often at rather high prices.

Those three are all owned in more than a quarter of leagues with prices ranging as high as $15. So far, I have placed only one bid across all my leagues – $5 on Swanson in the original ottoneu league – mostly because I am not sure these players are worth the risk. But everyone else seems to think they are. So am I missing something? Or are you?

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A month before the season started, I introduced a model that predicts a Minor League hitter’s chances of Major League success based on his statistics during his most recent AAA stint. I will use that same model now to update the list of the National League’s top MLB-ready outfield prospects, the key term here being MLB-ready, not prospect — the goal is to identify players who scouts may not love but stats do.

The model looks at how a hitter once performed in AAA and compares it to his known career outcome, ultimately calculating probabilities that a certain career outcome will occur. These probabilities can then be applied to current Minor League players in order to project their currently unknown career outcomes. I discuss the model’s nitty-gritty, as well as its similarities with and potential shortcomings to Chris Mitchell’s KATOH, in the link provided in this post’s first sentence. Both models share the same goal and their methodologies are almost identical, so their results can be considered comparable; mine simply takes a more subjective approach, as I will explain shortly. This is not a turf war.

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At this time of the season, it’s a good idea for those of you in deep leagues to have a couple of second-half sleepers on your roster. Seeing as I cover the second-base beat here at Rotographs, I’ve identified a promising youngster with the potential for significant playing time at the keystone going forward.

One of the crucial aspects of identifying these players is finding holes on major-league rosters. So, seeing as we’re talking about second base, let’s discuss the Yankees. The days when Stephen Drew seemed like a legitimate major-league baseball player seem like ages ago, as the hapless second-sacker has followed up last year’s hilariously inept .162/.237/.299 season with a not-much-better .178/.239/.372. At least he’s hitting some homers, but that still hasn’t been enough to make him even a replacement-level player.

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The with the 2015 amateur draft now in the rearview mirror — but the excitement still simmering while fans await signing news — let’s check in on some of the top draft picks from 2014 and see how they’re doing.

Nick Gordon, SS, Twins: A year ago, people were calling Nick the better Gordon when compared to brother Dee. The Marlins shortstop, though, is enjoying an all-star-caliber season due to his .416 BABIP and improved defence. Nick could still overtake his brother one day but the early results in his pro career have not been great. Currently playing in Low-A ball at the age of 19, he features a disappointing .604 OPS with just eight of his 52 hits going for extra bases (.288 SLG%). Like his brother, speed is supposed to be a big part of his game but he’s only stolen 25 bases in his career (111 games) with 12 caught stealing. The second-place Twins have seen some success in 2015 despite dismal results from the shortstop position. Unfortunately, the club’s top shortstop prospect is probably at least three years away. [Value Down]

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With Carlos Correa playing in his first major league game last Monday, the fantasy gods provided me the most obvious topic for a Rotographs post as the guy on the SS beat on Mondays. Well, the gods have smiled on me again with Francisco Lindor getting the call and likely to start his first major league game tonight. Read the rest of this entry »

Baseball Twitter was all atwitter on Sunday night as news of Carlos Correa’s call-up broke. Questions about Correa’s fantasy value immediately popped up in my notifications. Given that I’m tasked with the shortstop beat here on Mondays, the prompt for today’s post was a no-doubter.

To determine Correa’s fantasy value, let’s first start by projecting his plate appearances. Steamer has him at 214 PA, but that will obviously get an update soon given today’s news. It’s probably safe to assume he’s going to play every day for now, but the eventual return of Jed Lowrie sometime around the All-Star break could complicate things. My guess is that Lowrie will work in frequently at third base and not cut into Correa at short much so long as Correa is producing. As for his spot in the batting order, it’s likely to be somewhere in the 5-7 range.

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The baseball season is in full swing and prospects around baseball are already seeing their stock values start to shift up or down. Today we’re looking at a pitcher who could help out in the playoff race in the second half of 2015 and a few other players that are quite talented but also a few years away from reaching The Show.

Ozhaino Albies, SS, Braves: Albies didn’t enter pro ball until 2014 but the 18-year-old infielder is already making a name for himself. After hitting . 364 in his debut, the young prospect is more than holding his own in full-season ball. He has a .313 batting average and has walked almost as much as he’s struck out (21/28) and has stolen 20 bases in 52 games. Braves’ incumbent shortstop Andrelton Simmons will be a tough man to move off of shortstop but second base could eventually become home to Albies, and the Braves organization is not shy about aggressively promoting talented prospects (as seen with the likes of Rafael Furcal and Andruw Jones). [Value Up]

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The baseball season is in full swing and prospects around baseball are already seeing their stock values start to shift up or down. Today we’re looking at four prospects from the American League — three of whom can found playing for organizations in the AL East.

Tyler Austin, OF, Yankees: The up-and-down career of Austin may finally be running out of ‘ups.” A highly-regarded amateur when he was drafted in 2010, had two solid pro seasons but fell on hard times in 2013 due to injury. He rebounded somewhat in 2014 but currently sports a .486 OPS in 34 Triple-A games. He’s managed just five extra base hits but has been striking out like a slugger with 38 whiffs. Added to the 40-man roster last November to protect him from the Rule 5 draft, he might go unclaimed through the waiver process if the Yankees were to need room on the roster. With aging hitters on the big league roster, the club will likely need to rely on its outfield depth in 2015 and could reach down into Double-A to promote 2013 first rounder Aaron Judge — rather than give a shot to the likes of Triple-A outfielders Austin, Ben Gamel, Ramon Flores, or Slade Heathcott. [Value Down]

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The baseball season is in full swing and prospects around baseball are already seeing their stock values start to shift up or down. Today we’re going to take a look at three young players that have seen their values increase and have an opportunity to impact their clubs in 2016 — if not sooner.

Earlier Editions:
Prospect Stock Watch 2
Prospect Stock Watch 1

Clint Coulter, OF, Brewers: The Brewers began the task of converting Coulter from catcher to outfielder in 2014 and it’s continued on into this season. The young prospect has yet to don the tools of ignorance in an official game in 2015 but, unlike a lot of players converted from catching, he doesn’t project to lose much value. That’s because he offers so much at the plate beginning with plus power, which he’s showcased in the Florida State League (A+) this year with a .607 slugging and seven homers in 28 games.

Coulter, 21, strikes out like a power hitter but he also takes a lot of walks and should produce a strong on-base percentage in the Majors. After a strong 2014 season in 2014 and a quick start in ’15, he’s primed for a promotion to Double-A by mid-year, which would put him in the Majors in 2016. That could make incumbent left-fielder Kris Davis expendable as he enters arbitration and becomes more expensive. [Value Up]

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