Welcome back to my annual off-season series that has a quick-and-dirty review of all 30 minor league systems around baseball. This feature began way back in 2008.

First Taste of The Show: Danny Jansen, C: Jansen couldn’t have been more under-the-radar as a 16th round draft pick out of an obscure Wisconsin high school. But he showed promise with the bat pretty much right away, although he battled through inconsistencies, which eventually led to glasses and to a breakout season in 2017. Jansen has become a threat on both sides of the ball and has shown solid make-up and drive. He may still be scratching the surface on what he’s capable of, especially at the plate, as he’s shown a solid eye, good bat-to-ball skill, and promising gap pop.

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Welcome back to my annual off-season series that has a quick-and-dirty review of all 30 minor league systems around baseball. This feature began way back in 2008.

If you had been perusing this series at the end of 2017, you would have read:

The Sleeper: Jonathan Loaisiga, RHP: Signed way back in 2012 (by the Giants), injuries have decimated Loasiga’s career to date with just 35 innings thrown in the last four years. However, he has outstanding control and a mid-90s fastball with two secondary offerings that project as better than average down the line. I can’t see him being a starter long-term given the injury history and his slight frame but he could make an excellent (and quick-moving) reliever for the Yankees.

Now on to the new stuff:

First Taste of The Show: Gleyber Torres, 2B: Torres needed less than 70 games above A-ball to prove to the Yankees that he was MLB ready. He wasn’t the best rookie hitter on the club (that goes to Miguel Andujar) but the former Cubs prospect was younger and also showed a better all-around game. With that said, there is still room for growth as he struck out 25% of the time while hitting for more power than expected (11 home runs was his previous high). Even if the swing-and-miss tendencies continue (I don’t think they will), Torres has produced 10-12% walk rates in the minors so he’ll like increase his on-base rate as he settles in at the big league level. Defensively, he’s a fine second baseman who can play shortstop when needed.

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The 2019 season is here.  Let’s get right to it.

1 – Dan Vogelbach will finish with a wOBA higher than Vladimir Guerrero, Jr.

You could say that to date neither Dan Vogelbach nor Vladimir Guererro, Jr. have accomplished anything in the major leagues.  While true, that’s where the comparison ends.  Vogelbach is 26 years old and has less than 150 major league plate appearances on his resume (career 78 wRC+). Vlad, Jr. just turned 20 years old, is the consensus #1 prospect in baseball, and is the son of a beloved Hall of Fame player.

I have absolutely nothing against Vlad, Jr. and am as excited as anyone else to watch him carve out what is likely to be a stunning career with the bat.  However, as I tried to express recently, the expectations are so high here that we may all be setting ourselves up for a little bit of disappointment.  As we are often reminded with even elite prospects, baseball is hard, and the game has a funny way of humbling even the most talented athletes in the world, at least for a time.  Patience will be prudent with Vlad, Jr., but most of us will have none of it.

Vogelbach has posted a minor league slash of .282/.391/.472/.864 over eight seasons, including a .907 OPS in 342 AAA games.  He’s a professional hitter, but up until this point he’s had Nelson Cruz blocking his path to SEA.  That roadblock is now removed, and as of this writing it’s all but certain Vogelbach will get a shot to stick on the Mariners’ roster to begin the season.  From the write up for the 2019 Seattle top prospects:

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Welcome back to my annual off-season series that has a quick-and-dirty review of all 30 minor league systems around baseball. This feature began way back in 2008.

If you had been perusing this series back in 2015 you would have read:

The ’15 Draft Pick: Austin Riley, 3B: The Braves went the prep route with their first four picks of the 2015 draft all coming before the third round, and scored some impressive talents. Riley, 18, showed excellent power for his age and slugged seven homers in just 30 rookie league games, which earned him a promotion to advanced rookie ball. All combined, he hit more than .300 and had a total of 12 long balls in 60 games. He had his fair share of strikeouts but that’s to be expected for a young slugger and he offset them, to a degree, with a walk rate of almost 10%. If he can trim his swings-and-misses, Riley could be a Top-100 talent within a year.

Now on to the new stuff:

First Taste of The Show: Kyle Wright, RHP: A top college hurler, Wright was selected fifth overall in 2017. He reached The Show in late 2018 and may never return to the minor leagues. Despite having just six innings of experience in the majors, injuries to other promising, young pitchers like Luiz Gohara and Mike Soroka have opened the door for Wright to slide into a starting gig. He has a four-pitch mix, good velocity on his heater, and solid control/command. Wright is also coming off of a strong spring that, to date, has seen him post a K-BB ratio of 16-2 in 12 innings.

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Welcome back to my annual off-season series that has a quick-and-dirty review of all 30 minor league systems around baseball. This feature began way back in 2008.

If you were perusing this series back in 2017 you would have read:

The ’16 Draft Pick: Zack Collins (C): The Sox currently appear ready to open 2017 with Kevan Smith and Omar Narvaez behind the plate — with a combined 41 games of big league experience between them. So, yeah, catching depth in the system isn’t great… and could be why the Sox targeted Collins – a solid college catcher – with the 10th overall selection in the 2016 draft. The jury is still out on his ability to stick behind the plate but he can hit. In his debut, he walked 33 times (next to 39 Ks) in 36 games and went deep six times. The bar for catchers’ offence is very low and Collins could exceed average. He should split 2017 between high-A and double-A, although his defensive work could slow down his ascent to The Show.

Now on to the new stuff:

First Taste of The Show: Daniel Palka, 1B: This new era of baseball is turning quad-A sluggers and Japanese exports into big leaguers. Case in point: Palka. He has 30 home run potential but it also comes with a 30-35% strikeout rate. Palka walked just 6.7% of the time but consistently showed 10-12% rates in the minors so there is hope here that he can offset the putrid batting average with a mildly respectable on-base rate with some more walks as an MLB sophomore in 2019. With the signing of Yonder Alonso and the presence of Jose Abreu, Palka’s only real path to playing time is probably in left field, which isn’t ideal.

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Few aspects of fantasy baseball deviate more from the reality of major league baseball more than the speculation of prospects.  Like most aspects of market-based economics, you often have to buy early on limited information if you want to get the best return on investment before the rest of the industry influences supply and demand.  Perception is reality until prospects actually get the chance to contribute (or fail) on a major league field, and the outcome of those small but important samples can swing values wildly in short cycles.

The goal today is to identify up and coming talent well before the masses of most leagues, so here are five prospects primed to see a big increase in value in 2019.  You won’t find these prospects sitting on many Top 100 lists (yet), but you’ll want to at least keep them on your radar as they rise in the future.

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Welcome back to my annual off-season series that has a quick-and-dirty review of all 30 minor league systems around baseball. This feature began way back in 2008.

If you had been perusing this series back in 2016 you would have read:

The Lottery Ticket: Juan Soto (OF): The recent addition of Soto to the system adds yet another impressive athlete to the Nationals glut of outfield talent, which also includes Victor Robles (see above), Rafael Bautista and Andrew Stevenson. Just 17 during the regular season in ’16, Soto posted a .973 OPS in short-season ball. His advanced approach for his age was evident in his ability to hit .368 with just 29 strikeouts in 51 games. Soto also possesses above-average raw power but he has yet to fully tap into that in game situations. Once he does, he could become a true threat from the left side of the plate and projects to develop into a middle-of-the-order threat and corner outfielder.

Now on to the new stuff:

First Taste of The Show: Juan Soto, OF: Well, what more can be said about Soto? He absolutely rocketed through the minors in 2018 and took the Majors by storm. He has an exciting tool set and should be the next star outfielder for the Nationals for many years. The 20-year-old has an approach at the plate that belies his age and experience, and the make-up is also strong.

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A few years ago I posted an article about designing fantasy league incentives.  While the popularity of customized, add-on incentives is hard to measure across the fantasy community, it’s clear that leagues conceptually understand the potential value of features and rewards that attempt to keep owners engaged over the course of a long baseball season.  In the standard winner-takes-all format of many points leagues, commissioners are often left to mitigate the wreckage of AWOL owners that sell off and check out early, so carrots, even small ones, can help in cross-checking drastic, standings-shaking transactions if designed thoughtfully. But designing the right league incentives is easier said than done because owners are motivated by different values.

The purpose of this article is for you, the reader, to help me design the right incentive structure for the very first 20 team Ottoneu league (more on this soon), an exciting experiment that will dramatically alter the traditional economic model that serves as the foundation of standard 12 team Ottoneu leagues. Your feedback will be critical to building a league that lasts, but the discussion will hopefully be a helpful reference for others attempting to structure leagues that are as engaging as possible.

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Welcome back to my annual off-season series that has a quick-and-dirty review of all 30 minor league systems around baseball. This feature began way back in 2008.

If you were perusing this series back in 2016 you would have read:

The Lottery Ticket: Keibert Ruiz (C): The Dodgers have had a knack for developing offensive-minded catchers and Ruiz could be the next one in line. Signed for less than $150,000, he’s another player that shows Los Angeles can really scout and develop young players. Ruiz, 18, played in a good hitter’s league in 2016 but the .354 average, 22 extra base hits and 23 strikeouts in 189 at-bats were impressive nonetheless. He shows enough skill behind the plate to stick there as long as he can improve his throwing. The switch-hitter could open up 2017 in full-season ball as a teenager if he has a strong spring.

Now on to the new stuff:

First Taste of The Show: Alex Verdugo, OF: Even with their off-season purge of a number of outfielders, the Dodgers have strong outfield depth which means Verdugo — who is 110% ready for the Majors — will be stuck in triple-A yet again. The young outfielder can hit .300 falling out of bed with his outstanding all-field approach, great eye and bat control. The biggest knock on him is that he doesn’t hit for a ton of power but it’s by choice and he possesses lots of raw pop — he’s just more of a throw-back player and that’s OK. Baseball needs players like Verdugo. The only other concern I have (which perhaps has played into the Dodgers reluctance to commit to him) is that he has some questionable makeup/maturity although I haven’t heard of anything specific for quite some time. A trade might be the best thing for Verdugo but the club also knows how valuable he is so the price is very, very high.

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Welcome back to my annual off-season series that has a quick-and-dirty review of all 30 minor league systems around baseball. This feature began way back in 2008.

If you were perusing this series back in 2016 you would have read:

The Lottery Ticket: Luis Arraez (2B): This young Venezuelan has done nothing but rake as a pro. Over three seasons, he sports a career batting average of .338. He also has a BB-K rate of 66-70 and it was 35-19 is his first two seasons at the rookie ball level. In 114 games in 2016, Arraez hit .347 and produced 165 hits — with just 51 strikeouts. Now the bad news: He doesn’t walk much, so his ability to get on base is very dependent on making good contact. As well, he doesn’t run much and — despite having some gap pop — he’s never going to be a power hitter. Still, he might eventually make a solid No. 2 hitter at the big league level if he can continue to develop. Arraez will move up to high-A ball in 2017 and could eventually be the successor to Brian Dozier — a very, very different type of second baseman — in Minnesota.

Now on to the new stuff:

First Taste of The Show: Mitch Garver, C: Veteran catcher Jason Castro missed most of 2018 due to injury which opened up an opportunity for Garver to show what he’s capable of and he produced a strong freshman offering. He may not receive the bulk of playing time in 2019 but should have at least worked his way into a platoon situation. Garver is a strong offensive catcher who has shown improvements on the defensive side of the ball. If Castro battles injuries again in 2019, the club should be comfortable giving significant playing time to the sophomore catcher.

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