The Prospect Stock Watch is taking a trip around the Majors Leagues. Over the next few weeks, we’ll be diving into each organization to highlight two or three prospects from each club that are seeing their values spike as we move into the second half of the season. The review begins this week with 13 names to know from the National League East.

Atlanta Braves:

Kyle Muller, LHP (AA): A former second-round draft pick out of high school, Muller saw his value dip with a drop in velocity. He’s rediscovered his lost zip and now has an above-average fastball for a lefty – as well as a very good curveball. At 6-6, he’s still learning to control his long levers and has had issues with walks this season (52 in 85 innings). Muller, 21, has a chance to be a mid-rotation innings-eater but there could also be high-leverage reliever potential here if he can find the strike zone more consistently. ETA: 2020

Patrick Weigel, RHP (AAA): A strong 2016 season had Weigel strongly entrenched on my up-and-comers radar but then his career ascent was derailed by Tommy John surgery. He missed part of 2017 and most of 2018 but is back and looking like he never left. The hard-throwing right-hander opened the year in Double-A but has now made nine appearances (eight starts) in Triple-A. His command and control have both been inconsistent as he returns from the long layoff but it’s nothing to be overly concerned about. Because his secondary stuff is just average, he profiles as a fastball-heavy, high-leverage reliever in The Show. ETA: 2019

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Dictionary.com defines the word commission as “the act of committing or entrusting a person, group, etc. with supervisory power or authority.” I’ve been playing and commissioning fantasy baseball for almost 25 years now and have on occasion abused that authority to influence change within my leagues.  Always with the long-term good of the league in mind, I have encouraged owners to adopt a wide variety of incentive structures that have included elaborate prize payouts, keeper contract systems, supplemental minor league drafts, arbitration and inflation offsets, and a few other random gimmicks.  Furthermore, as a regular member of an active, daily fantasy baseball community, I’ve seen countless other versions of these ideas and have had all the common debates about incentives vs. penalties, owner competitiveness vs. engagement, and all the nuances that make for good, healthy ownership and game play.  In short, I’ve kind of seen it all.

I’m now ready to admit defeat.  Despite my best efforts, there are no universals when it comes to motivating every type of owner to engage fully over the course of a long 162 game baseball schedule.  This revelation should be obvious, and perhaps only fellow commissioners will sympathize with this drive to create the perfect league, but it has taken me some time to finally come to grips with this truth.  To be clear, it’s not that some of these ideas haven’t worked (I have years of anecdotal evidence that they can and do), it’s just that they are usually designed to address the symptoms that plague poor leagues rather than the core issue.

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The Kansas City Royals may have had one of the best drafts in recent memory as we look back at their 2018 haul. Now, the club was set up well for success when it had four picks in the first 40 selections of the draft thanks to the compensation picks for losing Eric Hosmer, Lorenzo Cain, and Mike Moustakas, but that doesn’t always guarantee success. We’ve seen a lot of teams in recent years whiff with multiple early picks when overthinking things and perhaps not having a great plan mapped out ahead of time.

The Royals were not one of those clubs. The organization had a very clear strategy entering the draft: They were going all-in on college pitching in an effort to rebuild a farm system that had struggled to draft and develop pitching for years – mostly through the high school ranks.

The list of failures is extremely long and features the likes of Foster Griffin, Scott Blewett, Ashe Russell, Nolan Watson, and Garrett Davila when counting only the 2014 and 2015 drafts. Those five prep arms cost the organization more than $10.5 million in signing bonuses. Those five pitchers have also accounted for zero MLB innings to date and two of them (Russell and Davila) are out of baseball. Watson is still in A-ball (and hurt). Griffin and Blewett are pitching in Triple-A but their ERAs are 5.58 and 7.23, respectively.

Fast-forward to the 2018 draft where the Royals waded waist-deep into the college pitching market and came away with 11 college pitchers (and one junior college pitcher) with their first 17 selections spanning the initial 14 rounds of the draft. And eight or nine of their 2018 picks could end up with fantasy baseball value.

FANTASY VALUE: Brady Singer, RHP, 18th overall: At one point, Singer was in the discussion to go No. 1 overall in the 2018 draft so for him to slip down to 18 was a huge win for the Royals. After not pitching any pro innings after signing, he was assigned to High-A ball to begin 2019 and posted a 1.87 ERA in 10 games. Promoted to Double-A at the beginning of June, he’s had a couple of rough games and has a 6.35 ERA in five starts. The balls have been jumping out of the yard more for Singer, who allowed just one homer in 57.1 A-ball innings but has now given up four in 22.2 Double-A innings. Even so, he’s still inducing ground balls at a very high rate and doing a solid job of throwing strikes. His strikeouts are down in Double-A after averaging almost one per inning at the lower level but he’s shown the ability to make adjustments. There is mid-rotation potential here with a chance at being a top-of-rotation guy if he can keep missing bats and inducing ground-balls at an elite rate.

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Hey y’all!  This week’s Stash List should be pretty interesting.  Two of the guys I had previously written off, either due to injury or underperformance.  One of the hitters is a utility type player that may be hitting his way into an everyday role.  Lastly, one of the pitchers was properly chosen by his team and is really turning heads in the lower levels of the minors.

Travis Blankenhorn (MIN AA) 3B Age 22 ETA 2020

Travis Blankenhorn was picked by the Twins in the third round of the 2015 draft.  The Twins have been playing him at third and second base, as well as left field. Blankenhorn has above-average power with an average to slightly below average hit tool.  Due to his size, I doubt he is able to stick in left field, but he will be able to stick at DH. He started the season at A+, as he missed some time last year due to a lower back strain.  After 15 games and hitting .269/.377/.404 with a 14.8 BB% and 19.7%, the Twins decided he was ready to move up to AA.

With the promotion, the walks and strikeout regressed back to his career average, he is actually hitting for more power.  He ISO has increased from .135 to .224. Not only has he hit 13 home runs but also has 11 doubles and is hitting balls to all fields. For all of you deep leaguers out there, take a flyer on Blankenhorn. I could see him being a utility type for the Twins that can contribute in the power department.

Trent Grisham (MIL AAA) OF Age 22 ETA 2020

The Brewers used their first-round pick of the 2015 draft on Trent Grisham, one of the best prep players in the draft class.  He was assigned to the AZL right after being drafted and quickly moved to Low A. He has never been known for his batting average, his highest average is .233 last year, so to see Grisham hitting .254 in AA is very encouraging.  His walk percentage has always been double digits but he has decreased his strikeout rate to 17%. Grisham has, it seems, been selling out for a bit more power.

He used to have an all fields approach but his pull percentage has increased from around 30% to almost 50%.  With all the gains Grisham has made, the Brewers decided to promote him to AAA this past week. Prior to this season, I had written Grisham off but I back in. If you play in an OBP, Grisham is a must pick up prospect, if he is available on the waiver wire.

Braxton Garrett (MIA A+) Age 21 ETA 2021

In an interesting move during the 2016 draft, the Marlins used their first-round pick on Braxton Garrett.  He had a well developed three-pitch mix and it was thought he could move quickly through the Marlins system.  Unfortunately, he fell victim to injury had not pitched professionally since 2017. The Marlins started Garrett this season A+ and he has really been impressive.  In 63.1 innings, he has an ERA of 2.86, a WHIP of 1.14, and 82 strikeouts. Garrett projects to be a mid-three starter type with strikeout upside.

With the advanced nature of his pitch mix, he should continue to dominate the lower levels.  I will be interested to see how he does in AA and feel we should see that soon. In dynasty, I would take a flyer on Garrett. I checked in my leagues and he was still available in most of them. Also, with the pitching, Miami has developed recently (Gallen, Lopez, Smith, and Richards) I trust their development staff more than other teams.

Sean Hjelle (SFG A+) Age 22 ETA 2021

Sean Hjelle was selected in the second round of last years draft by the Giants.  It seemed fitting Hjelle would be drafted by the Giants, seeing that he is a 6’11’’ 215 giant righty.  After being drafted, the Giants assigned him to low A and his 21 innings he was hit around a bit. He had a 5.06 ERA and 1.31 WHIP.  Even with his struggles late last year, the Giants assigned him to A ball to begin this year. Hjelle excelled in his 40.2 innings, with a 2.66 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and 14.1 SwStk%. 

He was promoted to A+ a few weeks ago and the promotion has not slowed him down. What is very intriguing to me is Hjelle command for being such a tall pitcher. His highest walk rate is 5.5%, which is pretty low, even for a regular sized pitcher.  If Hjelle is able to maintain his control while being this tall, he should be a strikeout machine in the majors. If I was in a deep league, I would take a chance on Hjelle. In a more shallower league, I would wait to see what he does in AA before I invest.

Major League Baseball is filled with impressive star third basemen. The hot corner is a hotbed for youth MLB stars under the age of 30 from Nolan Arenado to Alex Bregman to Matt Chapman to Kris Bryant… and on and on to include the likes of up-and-coming players such as Yoan Moncada, Rafael Devers, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Today’s Prospect Stock Watch takes a look at the top prospects at the hot corner, including some that could have an MLB impact as soon as 2020 and represent the next wave of stud fantasy third basemen.

The Stud:

Alec Bohm: Bohm definitely appears to be the top third base prospect in baseball right now. Selected third overall in the 2018 draft after an excellent college career, Bohm has continued to dominate in pro ball. He showed a great approach at the plate throughout his collegiate career and has a BB-K of 30-36 in 63 games this season covering three levels now that he’s been promoted to Double-A. He doesn’t have the raw power of a Jonathan India or Nolan Gorman but he’s a much better hitter who is going to hit for average and produce outstanding on-base numbers. His line-drive rates are a little worrisome right now as he was at a well-below-average 13% at High-A ball prior to his promotion. Bohm needs to continue to get stronger while working to hit balls in the air with more consistency. Owned in just 31% of Ottoneu Leagues (less than underperforming India for some reason), he’s a player you should consider adding before other fantasy managers catch on and his value starts to trend upward.

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Hey y’all.  This weeks stash list should be a pretty good one for all of you who play in pretty deep dynasty leagues.  Three of the four guys were drafted in the eleventh round or later of there respective drafts.  All four of the guys are in the lower levels of the minor leagues, A or A+ ball.  We have a masher that is not an average killer, a speedster that is not just stolen base asset, and two control pitchers with strikeout upside.

Michael Gigliotti – (KC A+) OF Age 23 ETA 2021

In the fourth round of the 2017 draft, the Royals picked Michael Gigliotti out of Lipscomb University.  After being drafted the Royals sent him to Rookie ball and played extremely well. After posting a .329 AVG, .442 OBP, 3 home runs, and 15 stolen bases, the Royals rewarded his efforts with a promotion to A ball at the end of the season.  In only played in 22 games, but still posted an above .300 average, above .350 OBP and seven stolen bags. Unfortunately, he missed almost all of the 2018 season with a torn ACL in his knee. Gigliotti began the 2019 season back in A ball and is pounding at the door for a promotion (In fact, he was just promoted to A+ on June 20!).

In 59 games, he has a .309 AVG, .394 OBP, 1 home run, and 29 stolen bases.  You read that correctly, 29 stolen bases in 59 games and he have only been caught seven times. So it seems he has had no ill effects for the ACL injury. With the above-average hit tool and batting eye (9.7 BB% and 6.9 SwStk%), Gigliotti is one of those speedsters that can actually hit. I’m looking at you, Billy Hamilton. I would pick up Gigliotti to get in on the ground floor of this very interesting prospect.

Niko Hulsizer – (LAD A) OF Age 22 ETA 2021

The Cubs drafted Niko Hulsizer in the eighteenth round of last year’s draft.  Hulsizer is one of those pure athlete types. The 6’2, 200 lb OF won the 2017 College World Series Home Run Derby and gave Morehead State their first Home Run Derby champion.  During the derby, he hit 52 long balls between the three rounds! His draft stock was hampered a bit his junior year due to a broken hand. After being drafted, the Dodgers sent him to Rookie ball where he smashed nine home runs and swiped an impressive 12 bags.  

Along with the taters and stolen bases, Hulsizer also can hit for a pretty decent average, especially for being a slugger type. He hit .281 AVG and had a .426 OBP due to his 14.9 BB%. The Dodgers assigned Hulsizer to A ball to begin the season and he is performing well.  He has smacked 15 home runs and swiped 4 bags to go along with a .268 AVG and .395 OBP. Hulsizer will probably always struggle with the strikeouts but that power is glorious. I’d take a flyer on him in dynasty for sure.

Ljay Newsome – (SEA A+) RHP Age 22 ETA 2021

In the 26th round of the 2015 draft, Ljay Newsome finally received a phone call from a major league team.  He lasted to the 26th round mainly due to his stuff. He is a 5’11 righty with a mid to upper eighties fastball.  Not the sexiest pitcher profile for sure. Over the years, he has moved up a level each year and nothing in the profile drastically changed.  That is until this year. After going to a throwing program in the offseason that focused on mechanics and velocity, Newsome is having a career year.  

In 77 innings in A+, Newsome has racked up 103 strikeouts and only 8 walks. He has an ERA of 3.51 and a WHIP of 1.16 with a SwStk% of 14.3% and a BB% of 2.6%.  In fact, in a recent start, he threw 77 for of 94 pitches for strikes. For those not quick with math, that is an 81.9% strike percentage! I know Newsome is repeating and is also old for the level but this is amazing stuff.  I’d jump on board the Newsome train in deeper dynasty leagues.

Brett Conine – (HOU A+) RHP Age 22 ETA 2021

The Astros picked Brett Conine in the eleventh round of last years draft and it might be another win for the Astros organization.  After being drafted Cal State Fullerton, the Astros assigned him to low A. In 31 innings, he struck out 37 batters while walking eleven for an ERA of 1.99 and WHIP of 1.07.  He was assigned to A ball to begin the season and in 33 innings he racked up 40 punchies while walking six batters. The Astros rewarded him with a promotion to A+ and he actually got better!  

In his 27 innings in A+, he has an ERA of 1.65, a WHIP of .95, 42 strikeouts and only four walks. While doing some research on this post, I was not able to find much on him. He was not on any of the top prospect lists.  I expect that to change very shortly. For dynasty, I would keep my eye on Conine because the Astros might have found something in the mid rounds of the draft.

The short-season leagues are slowing getting underway with the more advanced of those groups already playing ball. The remainder of the leagues will get going within a week. So who are some of the interesting names to know for dynasty league managers?

I’m glad you asked. Today’s piece will look at five players you should mentally file away and consider adding to your minor league rosters once they hit the full-season league (assuming you play in leagues with managers who didn’t also read this piece).

I don’t necessarily advocate taking players really early in their careers and needlessly using a roster spot on someone playing in a short-season league unless they’re extreme talents. There have only been a few players that I’ve added to my Ottoneu teams prior to their arrival in full-season ball: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Fernando Tatis Jr., and Wander Franco.

The truth is, if you follow prospects closely, you can almost always find a good player worth adding to your roster. And adding a player too early often means you’re committing a roster spot to a player for three or four years if you grab them right out of the draft or rookie ball; more often than not in those scenarios you’ll end up ditching them before they actually help out. You’re better off leaving them unclaimed, monitoring their progress and jumping on them when the hype train starts warming up.

D’Shawn Knowles, OF, Angels

Knowles is another talented outfield prospect in an Angles’ system that also includes Jo Adell, Brandon Marsh, and Jordyn Adams. The club signed two top prospects out of the Bahamas back in July 2017 and Knowles has been the better performer to date, although he’s been returned to the advanced rookie league after spending half of 2018 at that level.

Although he hit .321 in 28 games there, it was with a .463 BABIP and 31% strikeout rate. The young outfielder doesn’t project to be much of a power hitter (although pretty much anyone can hit 20 homers these days in the MLB) and his game is really built around hitting line drives, getting on base and stealing bases. The good news is that he has a quick bat and short path to the ball so it’s really about pitch recognition and learning through repetition.

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Hey y’all.  Since the draft was last week, I thought it would be interesting to shine some light on some players who were drafted last year and are performing quite well.  I’m bringing you two hitters drafted in the second round with some power and speed upside.  Also making their debut are two pitchers drafted in the fifth and seventh round performing well in the lower levels.  Let’s go!

Alek Thomas – (ARI A) OF – ETA 2022

Alek Thomas was drafted by the Diamondbacks in the second round of last years draft.  After being drafted the Diamondbacks sent Thomas to the Arizona League. Thomas showed a bit of power, with 2 home runs but he also hit eleven doubles.  The above average hit tool has shown, as he had a .341 AVG. His average eye also showed with a 0.396 OBP during that time and flashed his 60-grade speed with 4 stolen bases.  He finished his season in rookie ball with a 0.325 AVG and 0.394 OBP with another 8 swiped bags.

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6/7/19

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 20, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER20!

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Hey y’all!  This week we had a couple of prospects send back down. Goodbye Keston Hiura and Nate Lowe (again).  I am pretty sure we will see both to return to the majors very soon. We also had Peter Lambert make his major league debut today against the Cubs.  I was able to catch a couple of innings and he looked pretty good. If he sticks around, he’ll get the Cubs again next week. However, this time it will be in Colorado.  The next edition of the Stash List is going really deep. Two of the pitchers were drafted out of high school but have some fantasy upside. The two hitters this week have fought off some injury concerns and are having great seasons so far.

Lewin Diaz (MIN A) 1B ETA 2021

Lewin Diaz signed with the Minnesota Twins in the July 2 period of 2013.  At the time, Diaz was rated as the tenth overall international prospect according to Baseball America.  He played in the Dominican Summer league in 2014 and then moved stateside and played in the Gulf Coast league in 2015.  During those two years, he posted double-digit walk rates, 14.9 BB, and 11 BB% respectively, and decent strikeout rates of 13.8 K% and 18.9 K%.  After 33 games in the Gulf Coast League, the Twins promoted him to the Appalachian league to finish off the 2015 season.

He must have taken the struggle bus to Elizabethton, TN because in 14 games, he had a strikeout rate of 32 K%, walked 5.7% of the time and hit .167/.245/.375. Not impressive at all.  The Twins assigned him again to the Appy league to begin the 2016 and he fared much better. In 46 games, he got his strikeout rate to 18 K% but also his power began to show. He smacked 15 doubles and nine home runs, which brought his ISO to a career-high .264.

Fast track to this year, Diaz is having a breakout year.  Last year, Diaz really struggled and his poor year ended early due to a broken thumb that required surgery to repair. The thumb injury has not sapped his power. He has smoked ten balls over the fence and also hit ten doubles as well. Scouts are a bit concerned about how his body will develop. He is a 6’4, 220 lb lefty who smashes the ball.  If Diaz is able to continue to hit, he might make it to the Twin Cities as a strong side platoon player.

Jake Fraley (SEA AA) OF ETA 2020

In one of the many trades between the Rays and Mariners, Fraley moved west in the offseason along with Mallex Smith for Mike Zunino.  Ever since being drafted in the second round of the 2016 draft, Fraley has struggled to stay healthy. He played in a career-high 66 games last year.  When on the field, Fraley has shown an above average hit tool. Fraley hit .337 with four home runs. That might not sound impressive but keep in mind he also hit 19 doubles, which might turn into home runs when he gets his hands on those major league baseballs in AAA.  

So far this year, Fraley has been able to stay on the field. Those doubles also seem to be flying a bit further as well. As of this post, Fraley has nine home runs and 14 doubles. He is also still hitting above the league average with a .337 AVG in the 51 games played in AA.  He does not just have a power upside but he also knows how to steal a base. He has 14 steals to go along with the increase in power. With all the moves Tradin’ Jerry plans to make, we should see Fraley patrolling the OF in Seattle sometime next year.

Simeon Woods Richardson (NYM A) RHP ETA 2022

The Mets took a chance on one of the youngest players that was draft eligible last year in the second round in the righty Simeon Woods Richardson.  In 11 electrifying innings after being drafted, Woods Richardson picked up 15 strikeouts with a 33.7 SwStk%. Scouts loved his 60-grade fastball and curveball with an above average changeup.  He’s very athletic and actually was a pretty good third baseman in high school as well. His delivery is very over the top which some scouts have disliked.

However, the scouts that are pretty high on Woods Richardson think the north to south movement changes the batter’s eye level.  Fastballs up and curveballs and breaking balls down aka the Blake Snell blueprint. The Mets assigned Woods Richardson to A ball to being the 2019 season. Even though his ERA is pretty high, 6.02 ERA in 40 innings, his K% is just under 30% while his BB% is only 4.6%. In deeper dynasty leagues, I would definitely give Woods Richardson a chance.  There is a lot of room for growth for the young righty.

Matt Tabor (ARI A) RHP ETA 2022

In the third round of the 2017 draft, the Diamondbacks decided to take a chance on the prep righty from Massachusetts.  After the draft, Tabor threw a couple of innings in rookie ball. He was assigned to low A ball to begin the 2018 season and performed well.  Scouts were impressed with the uptick in velocity from his high school day. Keep in mind this uptick only got Tabor up to the low to mid-nineties. He does have two plus other offerings with the changeup and curveball.  

Tabor is pretty athletic and seems to be able to hide the ball well to fool batters. In 60 innings in 2018, he had a 3.26 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and a 13.2 SwStk%, albeit with only 46 strikeouts. However, this year has been more encouraging on the strikeout side.  In 24 innings in A ball, Tabor has 29 strikeouts and 15.3% SwStk%. The ERA and WHIP as also dropped to 2.63 ERA and 0.88 WHIP. Tabor will never be a lights out starter but should be a guy that will eat innings and compile the strikeouts. Keep an eye on Tabor to see if the increase in swinging strikes and limiting the hits continue.