Hey y’all! Can you believe it is almost the end of August and the end of the minor league season? I know I am not ready for the season to end. With the minor leagues almost finished for the year, I thought it would be fun to check out some recent draftees you might want to draft in your First Year Player Drafts. It is never too early to get a hit start on draft prep! Today, I’m bringing you two outfielders, one with speed and the other with power, and two pitchers who are performing well in their first taste of pro ball. 

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The 2016 draft was an interesting one and it has a chance to be a gold mine for 2020 fantasy baseball managers.

On first blush, it appears to be a rather weak offering with Mickey Moniak leading off the draft. But there’s some real depth here in the first round with very few hard misses. Those that might eventually find their ways into the miss column include Riley Pint, Corey Ray, Delvin Perez, Will Benson, Cole Ragans, Will Craig, and Blake Rutherford. But even then, some of those players could still punch their union card and carve out part-time roles in the Major Leagues.

A number of first-round picks have already made it to the Majors, including Dakota Hudson, Eric Lauer, Nick Senzel, Cal Quantrill, Will Smith, and A.J. Puk. And look at the list of players selected in later rounds that have already played in the Majors: Zac Gallen, Shane Bieber, Zach Plesac, Joey Lucchesi, Pete Alonso, Bryan Reynolds, Bo Bichette, Cavan Biggio, and Tommy Edman.

There is a strong second wave coming. You’ve already seen some of the 2016 draftees make brief appearances in the Majors including Carter Kieboom, Nate Lowe, Jon Duplantier, Bryse Wilson, Nick Solak, Jake Fraley, and Dustin May. But let’s take a closer look at some of the other 2016 picks that could see significant playing time in 2020 that have yet to reach The Show:

Catchers

Sean Murphy, Athletics, AAA: Murphy would likely be in the Majors right now if most of his season had not been wiped out by trips to the disabled list. Just back in Triple-A after a brief rehab assignment in Rookie Ball, the young catcher went deep twice in his first game back in Triple-A — giving him an eye-popping eight home runs in his last five games (19 at-bats) at that level reaching back to July.

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The 2015 draft started off with a run on college players who have gone on the become solid big league contributors. Dansby Swanson and Alex Bregman were then followed by high school infielder Brendan Rodgers, who was selected third overall but has yet to establish himself in the Major Leagues. However, Rodgers has had a taste of big-league action as a member of the Rockies’ 40-man roster.

There many former high school picks from the 2015 draft that have yet to even make it onto a 40-man roster, let alone reach the Majors. And this fall will represent the deadline to add those prep players to the 40-man roster to protect them from the Rule 5 draft in December. Let’s take a look at a few names that could be added to teams’ 40-man rosters and also potentially help fantasy owners in 2020 and beyond.

Tyler Stephenson, C, Reds (AA): The Reds organization lacks a true starting catcher (apologies to Tucker Barnhart) but that could change when Stephenson reaches The Show. He was selected 11th overall in 2015 but, as is often the case, the high school catcher’s development has been a slow one. Stephenson has yet to tap into his raw power potential but he’s posted three straight seasons of offensive results surpassing the league average. Even without the home-run results to show for it, he’s getting stronger and has hit a lot more line drives over the past two seasons. The young catcher also has posted three straight seasons with walk rates above 10%. Along with the patient approach, he shows a good eye and has struck out just 55 times (17% K-rate) in 79 games this year. Stephenson is a tall catcher so it’s taken time for him to show improvements on defense but he has a very strong arm and has used it to throw out 28% of base runners so far this year. There are few concerns about his ability to stick at catcher and be able to play every day.

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Hey y’all. There are only about two more weeks left in the minor league season. There have been some interesting call-ups including Stash List alum Dylan Carlson and Sean Hjelle. This week I am bringing you some power-hitting middle infielder, a young outfielder destroying the DSL, an advanced college pitcher with an uptick in velocity, and a pitcher that should be knocking at the door of the bigs early next year.

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Today at the Prospect Stock Watch, we’re going to look at pitching because… well, who isn’t looking for quality pitching? The ability to identify good pitching has become even more important around Major League Baseball these days where the balls have more juice than the Kool-Aid Man.

As a fantasy baseball owner, you’re tasked with finding a significant number of arms to help your team navigate through a long season filled with injuries and disappointments. And in this new era of baseball, it can be even more difficult to find a good, reliable starter as many pitchers hit a wall in Triple-A and/or the Majors where the balls are different than the lower minors (Say hello to Justus Sheffield and Deivi Garcia, among others).

Below, we’re going to rank the Top 6 MLB organizations in terms of minor pitching depth and list the best arms within each organization. If we look at the next wave of arms heading towards the MLB, it’s interesting to see these six organizations possess the majority of the top arms in baseball.

The below ranking will help fantasy managers in redraft leagues prepare for 2020, and it will help fantasy managers in dynasty leagues prepare for the multiple seasons ahead. Some of the teams below with the best pitching depth might surprise you. And if the rankings below are any indication, the American League Central could soon become a powerhouse league to rival the AL East.

1. The Detroit Tigers

The Tigers rank first for two reasons. Firstly, they have three pitchers at the top that project to develop into No. 1/2 starters. Secondly, the organization could graduate five strong starting pitchers by the end of the 2020 season. The club also projects to completely makeover the starting rotation by 2021 which could push Spencer Turnbull to the bullpen and allow the Tigers to deal Matthew Boyd for help on the hitting side (Recent draft pick Riley Greene looks special but there’s not much else after that).

Casey Mize, RHP, AA, ETA: 2020
Matt Manning, RHP, AA, ETA: 2020
Tarik Skubal, LHP, AA, ETA: 2020
Joey Wentz, LHP, AA, ETA: 2020
Alex Faedo, RHP, AA, ETA: 2020

Projected 2021 Rotation: Matthew Boyd, Casey Mize, Matt Manning, Tarik Skubal, Spencer Turnbull

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Today, we’re heading back to the 2018 draft to unearth some hidden gems. You’ve all likely heard about Casey Mize, and Alec Bohm, and Nolan Gorman… but who are some of the other prospects who will soon become dynasty darlings?

Shane McClanahan, LHP, Rays
Baseball America (org ranking): 11
MLB Pipeline: 10
Marc Hulet: 4

McClanahan deserves more love. As you can see above, most publications have him around the fringe of the Rays’ Top 10 prospects list. And I get it. He was a top college player — selected 31st overall — but opened his first full season in Low-A ball, which is not the most challenging level given his past pedigree. However, there were big concerns over his ability to throw consistent strikes and, well, this is the Rays — an organization that is always on the conservative side of developing prospects not named Wander Franco.

And the concern was warranted, as seen by McClanahan’s walk rate of 5.26 BB/9 in 11 appearances. After showing improvements, he was promoted to High-A ball where he was outstanding at working the strike zone. He walked just eight batters in 49.1 innings, which works out to a sparkling 1.46 BB/9 rate. The hard-throwing lefty didn’t miss quite as many bats with his new approach but it was still far better than average (from 12.57 to 10.76 K/9). McClanahan was so impressive in those nine games that he earned another promotion — this time to Double-A. In his one start to date, he posted a K-BB of 8-1 with just two hits allows in five innings. With a blazing fastball, excellent curveball, strong frame, and a tendency to induce ground-ball outs, McClanahan has all but shaken off the concerns that he may eventually end up in the bullpen.

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Hey y’all! With the trade deadline in the major leagues and minor league season ending soon, this is a great time to look at some interesting prospects to take a flyer on. This week, I’m bringing you an outfielder that should be manning the outfield for St. Louis this September, another Royal outfield who is stealing bases like crazy and two pitchers in organizations that know how to develop pitchers.

Randy Arozarena – OF (STL AAA) Age: 24 ETA: 2019

The Cardinals signed Randy Arozarena in 2016 after he defected from Cuba in 2014. He was assigned to High A and hit 0.275 with a 0.333 OBP and eight home runs. After 70 games, the Cardinals moved him up to AA, where he struggled a bit with the more difficult competition. He repeated the level in 2018 and after hitting 0.396 in 24 games, he made his way to AAA, where again, he struggled. In a surprising move, the Cardinals again assigned him to AA to start the season but promoted him to AAA at the beginning of June.

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Today, we’re dropping in unannounced on some of the 2019 draft picks to see how they’re acclimatizing to pro baseball. In the process, we’ll have some thoughts on when they should be targeted in your dynasty or keeper fantasy leagues based on their MLB ETA. Keep in mind that a strong start to pro ball is encouraging but does not always guarantee future success (the opposite is also true). So this is just the first step in a long journey.

*Prior to the 2019 amateur draft, I published a mock draft based on where I thought the prospects should go based on a review of video, statistical information, and other scouting reports (as opposed to most mock drafts that attempt to accurately predict where players are going). I’m including a link to that piece as it’s referenced below on a number of occasions).

Adley Rutschman, C, Orioles:
2020 LEVEL: High-A
MLB ETA: 2022

The first overall pick of the draft took some time before making his pro debut so he’s only played in 11 games so far, split between Rookie ball and Short-Season A-ball. It’s been a slow start for the switch-hitting catcher as he’s hitting just .158 through 38 at-bats. The good news is that he’s had some bad luck on balls in play at the higher level. He also has a decent strikeout rate (13.5% K-rate) while also showing patience (12% BB-rate). Rutschman is looking good defensively and has thrown out 57% of base runners in seven attempts.

Andrew Vaughn, 1B, White Sox:
2020 LEVEL: Double-A
MLB ETA: 2021

I personally advocated for Vaughn first overall but he instead went third overall to Chicago. And the White Sox have done what the White Sox tend to do far too often. They’ve pushed a prospect extremely aggressively – for reasons that remain unclear. Now, Vaughn has done OK. He has an .898 OPS overall and a BB-K rate of 16-24 in 30 games over three levels. But his .798 OPS in 23 Low-A games was OK-not-great but he was recently pushed up to High-A ball nonetheless. My guess is that the front office wants to get the young core together as quickly as possible since the AL Central is hardly the AL East so you can conceivably rebuild and win the division at the same time.

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The dust has settled after the trade deadline storm. Or was it more of a tropical depression?

As we survey the altered landscape, we can see that a number of prospects have benefited from change? At the same time, a few prospects that changed hands saw their values hurt by their respective deals.

Let’s take a moment to review in more depth.

The Good

Joey Wentz, LHP (From Braves to Tigers): I’m a Wentz fan and this move gets him out of the logjam of pitchers in Atlanta and puts him into an organization that is trending upwards — especially in the pitching category. Detroit has amassed an impressive group of upper-level arms in its own right now and we could see a rotation in a year or two of Casey Mize, Matt Manning, Tarik Skubal and Wentz. If Matthew Boyd sticks around, who’s still only 28, it’s even better.

Joshua Rojas, UTIL (From Astros to Diamondbacks): Rojas is a name you may not be overly familiar with but he was a great late-round draft selection by the Astros, an organization that has a history of finding value in strange places. The 25-year-old can play all over the diamond so his versatility is a huge plus. And the bat is not so bad, either. He has 20 home runs in 97 Triple-A games. If you’re in a league that rewards walks, like Ottoneu, well, he has a BB-K of 55-64. And how about some steals? He’s not fast but he’s a smart baserunner and has 32 steals in 42 attempts this year. Arizona is also a pretty nice place to hit so this guy should be on your radar.

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Hey y’all! Today’s trade deadline was very exciting with a bunch of prospects changing teams. In today’s list, I’m bringing you four interesting prospects who you should look into picking up in your dynasty leagues.

There is one outfielder who is an OBP machine, another outfielder with all the power, another super speedy outfielder that might be an interesting speed option, and an infielder who should be in the big leagues next year.

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