As you’ll certainly notice if you read my articles on this site, I have an affinity for mediocre pitchers. Or rather, I have an interest for non-ace pitchers who aren’t amazing, but are solid.

Unless you’re playing in a very shallow league, non-ace pitchers can make or break your season. Everyone can identify the CC Sabathias and Josh Becketts of the world. However, pitching is difficult to assess and predict; there are many pitchers who come “out of nowhere” to have respectable seasons. If you’re able to identify these players, you can get some excellent values on your pitchers, and focus your earlier-round picks on safer-bet offensive players.

Furthermore, even pitching staffs with aces at the front need solid pitchers behind them. Often times, you can get a pitcher in 15th round who pitches as well as someone drafted in the 8th round – you just need to know where to look.

And for those of you play in truly deep leagues, and/or AL- or NL-only leagues, you often find yourself stuck with awful pitchers because you simply need to fill those spots. Sometimes the best pitching staffs aren’t the ones that are filled with aces, but rather are the staffs that don’t have any pitchers like Carlos Silva bringing down the rest of the staff.

With that in mind, let’s discuss Mitch Talbot.

Who?

Mitch Talbot, a 25-year-old left-hander in the Rays organization, may have had one of the least noticed excellent seasons by any minor league pitcher this year. Talbot is understandably overshadowed in an organization with a ridiculous amount of pitching talent. That said, he also had a very good season.

In 161 innings in triple-A, Talbot posted a 3.86 ERA – solid, but not awe-inspiring. Of course, we know that ERA is far from the best predictor for a pitcher’s future success – especially for minor leaguers. Talbot also tallied 141 strikeouts and allowed only 35 walks – an excellent ratio. Furthermore, Talbot induced twice as many ground balls as fly balls, thus leading to him allowing only nine homers. In fact, in 684 career innings in the minors, Talbot has allowed a mere 44 homers. That’s excellent.

Furthermore, Talbot’s 3.86 ERA is misleading due to the fact that he had a very high BABIP this season – .326, to be precise. That’s a lot higher than we’d expect, even allowing for the fact that as a ground-ball pitcher, Talbot will allow a few more hits than a fly-ball pitcher (of course, these hits are likely to only be singles).

While Talbot is excellent against left-handed batters, he’s not bad against righties either, suggesting that he won’t necessarily need to be moved to the bullpen. Furthermore, he improved throughout the season – in the last two months, he struck out 64 batters in 64 innings. Granted, this is a small sample size, so we can’t read too much into it, but it’s very possible that Talbot was continually improving throughout the season.

Of course, Talbot’s biggest problem at the moment is that he plays for the Tampa Bay Rays. He’s no higher than seventh on their starting pitching depth chart (and is in danger of being passed by Jeff Niemann, Wade Davis, and Jeremy Hellickson). However, odds are pretty good that the Rays will deal Edwin Jackson (or perhaps move him to the bullpen) to allow David Price into the rotation. Furthermore, starting pitchers are fragile – should any Rays pitcher get hurt (I’m looking at you, Scott), Talbot may be called up to fill in.

Finally, there is a very real chance that Talbot will be dealt within the next year, as the Rays look to shore up right field, designated hitter, and their bullpen.

Keep your eye very closely on Mitch Talbot. He’s ready to contribute to a major league team, and if he finds himself in a position to start every fifth day for any team, you may have yourself a late-round steal or excellent waiver wire pickup.

Playing on the same team and at the same position as the hottest player in the Arizona Fall League (Tyler Flowers of the Atlanta Braves organization), Lou Marson did not get a lot of press this past month. However, the 22-year-old backstop prospect is poised to surface in Philadelphia in 2009 – and he has above-average offensive potential at a position that does not traditionally generate a lot of production for fantasy baseball team owners.

Marson was selected out of an Arizona high school in the fourth round of the 2004 draft. His first three pro seasons were spent in relative obscurity thanks to average to below-average offensive numbers. Something clicked, though, in the summer of 2007 when Marson – then 21 – hit .288/.373/.407 with an ISO of .120 in 393 High-A at-bats.

The catcher, who swings from the right side, then improved even more in 2008 at the Double-A level, where he hit .314/.433/.416 in 322 at-bats and earned a one-game appearance at the Major League level. Marson still hasn’t shown much power (.102 ISO in 2008) but his eye at the plate has improved significantly – with an increase in BB% from 11.7 in 2007 to 17.4 in 2008. Marson also had a successful Arizona Fall League in Flowers’ shadow. The Philly’s prospect hit ..324/.425/.588 in 34 at-bats against some of the better pitching in the minor leagues.

Standing – or squatting – in Marson’s way to a Major League career are Carlos Ruiz, 29, and Chris Coste, 35. Both veteran catchers are right-handed and neither one had overly successful offensive seasons. Ruiz hit .219/.320/.300 with an ISO of .081 in .320 at-bats, while Coste managed a line of .263/.325/.423 with an ISO of .161 in 274 at-bats. Ruiz’ off season in 2008 definitely leaves him vulnerable to the incoming young talent. The organization’s second round pick from 2004, Jason Jaramillo, has also spent the last two seasons in Triple-A and should be a capable big league back-up whenever his skills are needed. The Phillies also recently added A-ball Australian prospect Joel Naughton to the 40-man roster.

A little more time at Triple-A certainly won’t hurt Marson, but he is close to being ready to contribute at the Major League level and add his name to the young, talented offensive core in Philadelphia.

When evaluating the statistical track record of a pitching prospect, I like to look at three main things:

Strikeout rate.

Walk rate.

Ground ball rate.

Obviously, components like velocity, scouting report, and the level at which the pitcher played are very important. But these three things tend to be the best way to quickly evaluate a pitching prospect. Guys who are above average in one of these three things can often be adequate major leaguers (assuming they can be above-average in the majors). Guys who are above average in two tend to be decent/pretty good major leaguers. And guys who are above average in all three tend to be very good.

David Huff is above average in all three.

Huff is not particularly dominant, and is unlikely to be an ace – either in real life, or in fantasy. However, he is above average in all three important factors. Furthermore, he throws in the low 90s and is very close to the majors.

Drafted in the first round back in 2006, Huff has shot through the Indians minor league system. He performed well in his first professional season in 2007 (he pitched in seven innings in 2006, but I won’t count those), posting a 46/15 K/BB ratio in 59 innings, while allowing only four homers. He induced a decent number of ground balls – 40.1% – but not a tremendous amount.

In 2008, Huff was promoted to double-A and improved in every area. At double-A Akron he posted a K/BB ratio of 62/14 in 65 innings, and induced grounders on 48% of his balls in play. Huff earned a promotion to triple-A, where he pitched in 80 innings, racking up 81 strikeouts while allowing only 15 walks. He even upped his ground ball percentage, inducing grounders on 50.9% of his balls in play. Furthermore, batters swung and missed at 9.8% of Huff’s pitches in triple-A (average at the major league level is around 7.5%).

In 2009, Huff is likely to begin the year in triple-A once again, as the Indians have several pitchers ahead of him on their depth chart, and they probably will not want him to begin accumulating service time on opening day. However, the Indians possess few pitchers who are as good as Huff, and the 24-year-old is almost certainly ready to perform at the major league level. Therefore, he will probably force his way into the Tribe’s rotation within the first month or two of the season.

David Huff doesn’t get a huge amount of strikeouts, or a huge amount of ground balls, but he’s shown the ability to accumulate an above-average amount of both. He’s also shown excellent control, which should be at least above-average at the major league level as well. Huff’s biggest strength is a lack of any pronounced weakness, and this should translate to a solid #3/4 starter in a big league rotation. While he lacks significant upside, Huff should be a nice late-round flier in AL only leagues (or very deep mixed leagues), and could be a nice addition off of the waiver wire in relatively shallow mixed leagues when he gets called up to the majors.

It’s rare for Major League Baseball teams to trade prospects straight up for one another, but that is exactly what happened this past week while clubs were finalizing 40-man rosters for the winter in advance of the Rule 5 draft in early December.

The Philadelphia Phillies, in need of a replacement for departing free agent Pat Burrell, traded Double-A outfielder Greg Golson, who appeared in six games with the big club, to the Texas Rangers for John Mayberry Jr., who had spent the majority of the season in Triple-A. Golson, 23, was the 21st overall selection in the 2004 amateur draft out of a Texas high school. Mayberry was the 19th overall selection in the 2005 amateur draft out of Stanford University.

Both players have very different skill sets. Golson is a raw, athletic player with speed and power potential. Mayberry has limited speed and athleticism, but a ton of power. Neither player currently projects to hit for a high average. In 2008, Golson hit .282/.335/.434 with 13 home runs and 23 stolen bases in 426 at-bats. He posted rates of 7.4 BB% and a scary 30.5 K%. His ISO was .153.

Mayberry hit .268/.302/.512 in 21 Double-A games before moving up to Triple-A. At the higher level, he had a line of .263/.310/.474 with an ISO of .211 in 437 at-bats. Mayberry, 25, whose father John Sr., had a long Major League career, posted rates of 6.4 BB% and 19.5 K% at Triple-A.

Both players obviously have their strengths and weaknesses. And both players are likely to spend time at the Major League level in 2009 making the league minimum salary. Mayberry is currently in line to help fill the void left by Burrell, who hit .250/.367/.507 with an ISO of .257 in 2008. Mayberry could probably come close to Burrell’s production in terms of power – and average – but he’s not likely to walk over 100 times.

Golson, on the other hand, has a chance to open the season as the Rangers’ center fielder, which would allow Josh Hamilton, the incumbent, to slid to one of the corners. Golson, though, must keep looking over his shoulder with top prospect Julio Borbon – also a center fielder, coming off a breakout season, which was split between High-A and Double-A. Borbon is also quite possibly more advanced as a player at this point, which makes the trade a little perplexing from Texas’ standpoint. Golson’s 2009 MLB numbers will likely be little or no help to a fantasy baseball team – unless you’re looking for stolen base potential in an AL-only league.

Padres prospect Chase Headley made his major league debut in 2008, hitting .269/.337/.420 with nine homers in 331 at bats. What can we expect in 2009?

Headley struck out in 31% of his at bats with the Padres – a lofty number for a guy who only hit nine homers. In the minor leagues Headley struck out a lot as well – he Ked in 25% of his at bats in triple-A this year, and 26% of his at bats in double-A in 2007. Furthermore, Headley will be 25 years old in May; he’s young, but he’s not that young. Thus, while it’s reasonable to expect some improvement from Headley in the strikeout department, all signs suggest that he will strike out a lot next year, too.

All of those strikeouts will keep his batting average down, but at least Headley hits the ball hard when he does make contact. His 24.7% line drive percentage supports his .369 BABIP; furthermore, his minor league track record suggests that Headley will continue to his a lot of line drives and have a high BABIP: his LD% in triple-A this year was 21.9%, and in double-A last year it was 23.8%.

Thus, while the high amount of strikeouts prevent Headley from having a high batting average, his line-drive percentage should keep his BA from falling too low. The .269 average he posted in 2008 seems like a reasonable approximation of what to expect going forward – perhaps Headley will strike out a little less often in the future, but this may be negated by a (somewhat small) drop in his LD%, as few hitters can sustain an LD% over 24%.

Headley displayed tremendous power over the last two seasons in the minors, slugging .576 in double-A in 2007 and following it up with a .556 SLG in triple-A in 2008. However, Headley’s isolated power was not as impressive as you might expect (.249 and .251); rather, it seems that while Headley did indeed hit for a lot of power, much of his high SLG was inflated by a high batting average – and remember, that high batting average is unlikely to continue in the majors.

Thus, while Headley does possess power, his minor league track record may overstate just how much power he has. Furthermore, Headley plays for the San Diego Padres, which means that he has to play half of his home games in PETCO Park. PETCO, as you probably know, absolutely kills homers, hurts doubles, is relatively neutral on singles, and inflates triples. Judging from what we know about Headley, PETCO seems like it will hurt him even more than it might hurt another player – Headley won’t put too many balls in play, and will lose a tremendous amount of homers (and doubles, not that fantasy players care too much about them) thanks to his home park.

Sure enough, in his half-season with the Padres in 2008, Headley hit .301/.361/.470 with five homers on the road, but only .230/.307/.358 with four homers at home. Headley might be worth platooning if you are able to couple him with another decent 3B; however, that may be a waste of a valuable roster spot that would be better served by simply playing Headley’s platoon partner full-time.

If there’s one area in which Headley could improve, it’s by hitting more fly balls. Only 37% of his balls in play were fly balls in 2008 – if he can up this number, he should be able to hit more homers. However, in the minors his fly ball rate fluctuated between 39% and 44%, suggesting that while Headley may be able to improve somewhat, it will take a dramatic improvement to get his fly ball rate up to 50% or so.

Finally, it looks like Headley is entrenched in left field, unless the Padres move Kevin Kouzmanoff. In fantasy baseball, Chase Headley the outfielder is even less valuable than Chase Headley the third baseman. If Headley regains (or retains) third base eligibility in your league, he will have slightly more value.

Chase Headley is a solid player, but don’t get too excited about him. He doesn’t appear to have that much power in the first place, and what power he does have is going to be sapped by PETCO Park. He’s worth drafting, but only a late-round flier. Let someone else overvalue him.

The trade winds continue to blow as the off-season begins to heat up. A number of minor league players were on the move this week as the Chicago Cubs sent promising, and hard-throwing, reliever Jose Ceda to the Florida Marlins for reliever Kevin Gregg.

Ceda was originally a highly-thought-of starting pitcher whose lack of command and control warranted a move to the bullpen, which took place midway through 2008. The 21-year-old Ceda spent the first half of the season in High-A ball where he allowed 41 hits in 55.1 innings over 12 starts (15 total appearances). He also posted rates of 4.64 BB/9 and 8.78 K/9. His Double-A relief numbers included 26 hits allowed in 30.1 innings, with rates of 4.15 BB/9 and 12.46 K/9. Ceda is still raw, and a long way from realizing his potential as a dominating closer, but he could see time in Florida in 2009 where he will showcase a high-90s fastball and mid-80s slider.

In a separate deal, the New York Yankees acquired slumping veteran OF/1B Nick Swisher and minor league reliever Kanekoa Texeira from the Chicago White Sox for MLB reserve infielder Wilson Betemit, Triple-A starting pitcher Jeff Marquez and Double-A reliever Jhonny Nunez. It’s impressive that New York managed to get Swisher for those three players, let alone have Chicago toss in a B-level minor league reliever. Texeira has average stuff but he has more than enough talent to be a middle reliever in Major League Baseball. At High-A ball, he allowed 28 hits in 38.2 innings and posted rates of 3.26 BB/9 and 8.38 K/9. At Double-A, he allowed 18 hits in 22.1 innings and posted rates of 2.82 BB/9 and 9.67 K/9/. Texeira may actually be the most talented of the three prospects that changed hands in this deal… which speaks less about his overall talent and more about the quality of prospects that Chicago received.

With that said, Marquez is an interesting player. Only 24, Marquez has the potential to fit in at the back end of the White Sox rotation or as a long reliever. He won 15 games in Double-A in 2007, but his overall numbers were no where near as impressive as the win total. Marquez struggled with injuries in 2008 and started 14 games at Triple-A. He allowed 93 hits in 80.2 innings and posted rates of 2.68 BB/9 and 3.68 K/9. Marquez has always been too hittable and doesn’t strike out many batters, but he’s had constant success in terms of FIP and ERA. He is basically a one-pitch pitcher with a sinker and a collection of below-average or average secondary pitches.

Nunez, 22, has already been the property of the Dodgers, the Nationals, the Yankees and now the White Sox. He is another one-pitch pitcher with a low- to mid-90s fastball, as well as a developing slider and change-up. If he sticks in the bullpen, Nunez can scrap the change-up. In High-A ball this season as a starter, the right-hander allowed 88 hits in 81 innings and posted rates of 2.33 BB/9 and 9.11 K/9. After moving up to Double-A, for both Washington and New York, Nunez allowed 25 hits in 27.1 innings and struck out more than 10 batters per nine innings. Chicago does love those hard-throwing relievers so Nunez could surface at the Major League level by the end of 2009 if his command continues to improve.

The New York Mets are set at the front of the rotation with Johan Santana, Mike Pelfrey and John Maine. However, with Oliver Perez and Pedro Martinez both eligible for free agency, two other spots in the starting five may be up for grabs. Sure, the team from Queens could elect to fill one or both of those slots with splashy free agent or trade acquisitions, but the club could also take a long look at left-hander Jonathon Niese. A 7th-round selection in the 2005 amateur entry draft out of Defiance, Ohio (the same high school that produced Dodgers stud Chad Billingsley), Niese has steadily climbed the minor league ladder and reached New York for a brief cup of coffee last September. Though not overpowering, the 6-4, 215 pounder could prove to be a nice low-cost addition to the back end of the rotation.

Niese got his professional career off to a good start in a brief 24.2 inning stint with the GCL Mets (Rookie League) in the summer of 2005, striking out 24 batters and walking ten. The man the Mets pried away from a University of Cincinnati scholarship was ranked as the 9th-best prospect in the system by Baseball America following the season.

In 2006, Niese would be bumped up to the Low-A South Atlantic League, tossing 123.2 innings with Hagerstown. He posted a 3.52 Fielding Independent ERA (FIP ERA), striking out an impressive 9.61 batters per nine innings but also posting a hefty 4.51 BB/9. Still, the combination of K’s and groundballs (51.4 GB%) made for a solid debut for a teenager in a full-season league. Niese was bumped up to St. Lucie of the Florida State League (High-A) at the end of the year, tossing 10 frames with a 10/5 K/BB ratio. Following the season, BA would bump Niese up to the 7th-best prospect in the Mets system, noting the potential of his “big, looping 68-70 MPH curveball” but also mentioning that he can “get overcompetitive and try to strike everyone out.”

Niese would spend the entire 2007 campaign at St. Lucie, posting a 3.28 FIP in 134.1 IP. His strikeout rate dipped (7.37 K/9), but he sharpened his control by a considerable amount (2.08 BB), shedding almost two and a half walks per nine innings and compiling a 3.55 K/BB. Niese also continued to burn worms, generating groundballs at a 50.4% clip. Heading into 2008, BA listed Niese as the 8th-best farmhand for the Mets, noting that his curve had now become a “plus” offering and that he had “figured out how to throw his changeup with the same arm speed as his fastball.” However, his fastball velocity and stamina were still something of an issue: he sat “91-92 MPH early in games”, but that figure tailed off toward the middle innings.

In 2008, Niese would pass through the Eastern and International Leagues before getting a quick glimpse of the majors at the end of the season. In 124.1 IP for Binghamton (AA), Niese compiled a 3.03 FIP ERA. He whiffed 7.26 batters per nine innings while issuing 3.18 BB/9. His sinking fastball continued to keep his infield D busy, with a 52 GB%. Niese was promoted to AAA New Orleans in the second half, where he would post a 4.11 FIP ERA and a 32/14 K/BB ratio in 39.2 innings. In dire need of starting pitching down the stretch, the Mets promoted Niese to the big leagues, where he made three September starts. He posted an 11/8 K/BB ratio in 14 innings with a 7.07 ERA.

Jonathon Niese will likely never be a front-of-the-rotation stalwart, but his combination of solid K rates and groundball tendencies makes him an interesting young arm. There’s always concern with a pitcher like Niese who generates those K’s with a big breaking ball and a tame fastball (89.4 MPH with the Mets): conventional wisdom says that while minor leaguers may not be able to lay off of that 74 MPH curve in the dirt, major league hitters will show more restraint and be less apt to chase. With the high-80’s heat, the big-breaking curveball and so-so control, Niese seems to have a Barry Zito starter kit at his disposal, with better ability to induce groundballs.

Wait! Don’t run! Before Zito lost several ticks on his fastball and became one of the most infamous free agent signings in major league history, he was a useful (if overhyped) mid-rotation starter for the A’s. Niese could enjoy a similar career arch, minus the unwarranted hardware and nine-figure contract.

Matt Wieters had quite the start to his professional career.

The 5th overall pick of the 2007 draft began the season at high-A ball, where he destroyed poor souls on the mound to the tune of .345/.448/.576 with 15 homers in 69 games. He also walked nearly as many times (44) as he struck out (47).

Wieters then took his one-man show to double-A, where the demolition continued. Wieters actually hit better with Bowie, smacking opposing pitchers around at a .365/.460/.625 clip, and blasting 12 homers in 61 games. He continued his impressive plate discipline as well, actually managing more walks (38) than strikeouts (29).

Wieters’s season is eerily reminiscent of another young catching prodigy: Joe Mauer, in 2003. That year, Mauer began the season at high-A ball, where he hit .335/.395/.412. Mauer too was promoted to double-A at mid-season, where he hit .341/.400/.453. Mauer also walked as often as he struck out, an impressive feat for any minor league hitter. The two biggest differences are the facts that Wieters was 22 years old this year, while Mauer was only 20 back in 2003; and that Wieters displayed more power this year than Mauer did in 03.

Fantasy players know what happened with Mauer: he developed into a consistent threat to win a batting title – although his power remains questionable to this day. However, Mauer is a solid comparison for what to expect from Wieters. Wieters began his professional career at a later age than Mauer, but also put up even more impressive numbers than Mauer did. So far, Wieters appears to be Joe Mauer with power.

The question is: how much power? Expect Wieters to hit for a solid average right away, as he not only posted very high averages in the minors this year, but he also showed extremely impressive plate discipline and the ability to put the ball in play. However, I wouldn’t expect Wieters’s power to translate entirely to the majors in 2009. Although he did hit 27 homers (in only 130 games) this year, he hit the ball on the ground a little too often: only 35% of his balls in play were fly balls.

Wieters is still a candidate to hit 10-15 homers and perhaps even approach a .300 batting average (although .280 or so is more likely), making him a fine catcher in 2009. His long-term potential is immense, and he’s tremendously valuable in keeper leagues. He will likely get the call to the majors relatively early in the season (perhaps as soon as April), and he should make an impact from day one. While he’s a good bet to have more power than Joe Mauer, it’s unlikely that he’ll hit 20-25 homers in his first season.

After an incredible showing in a short stint in September, Cameron Maybin appears poised to take over center field for the Florida Marlins, perhaps as early as opening day 2009. Maybin is an excellent prospect and may be hyped amongst fantasy baseball writers, but I want to offer fair warning: for 2009, Maybin may be disappointing.

(NOTE: I think Cameron Maybin is a fantastic prospect. He’s great for keeper leagues, but for this article I will focus only on what to expect in 2009).

Maybin spent most of 2008 in double-A in 2008, hitting .277/.375/.456 with 13 homers and 21 steals in 390 at bats. However, Maybin is more known for his stint with the Marlins in September, when he hit .500/.543/.563 in 32 at bats, with 4 steals (and somehow managed to be +3 on defense according to Bill James online).

Maybin’s 32-at-bat stint in the majors should basically be ignored: he happened to hit well over a very, very small sample size. When projecting him for 2009, we should look at the larger sample of his 08 minor league numbers. And those numbers are somewhat misleading, for two reasons.

First of all, Maybin’s .277 batting average was driven by a high .380 BABIP. He hit an average number of line drives (17.6%), but a very high number of grounders, perhaps allowing him to beat out a large share of infield hits. Still, a .380 BABIP is probably unsustainable, meaning his .277 batting average was higher than it should have been.

On the flip side, Maybin’s home park depressed his overall line. While Carolina played fairly neutral in 2008, it has historically depressed homers and hits by about 10% each. And sure enough, Maybin hit .314/.401/.508 with nine homers on the road, but only .249/.356/.413 with four homers at home.

So what should we expect in 2009? First of all, Maybin is both fast and a good base stealer. The Marlins are generally an aggressive team, so expect Maybin to steal a good amount of bases. However, I wouldn’t expect much in the power department – Maybin is certainly still young enough to develop power, but he hit twice as many ground balls as fly balls in the minors this year, and is unlikely to hit many homers in 2009.

Furthermore, although Maybin walked a lot in 2008 – a good sign for his long-term development – he also struck out a lot. While this may not hold him back in the long-term – he’s young enough to be able to improve – it doesn’t bode well for his batting average in 2009. Remember, Maybin only hit .277 in double-A this year, and that was despite posting an inordinately-high BABIP. In 2009 he will be facing much more difficult pitching, and may very well have a hard time posting a batting average of even .250, despite see his speed (see Carlos Gomez in 08).

Maybin would almost certainly benefit from some experience in triple-A, given his age and his propensity to strike out and hit ground balls. His speed, defense, and willingness to take a walk should translate well into the majors, making him at least an adequate player for the Marlins in 09. However, fantasy players should expect a low batting average and minimal power, coupled with a lot of stolen bases (assuming he get on base a decent amount of time).

Maybin is an excellent long-term prospect, but may only help in the stolen base category in 2009.

As mentioned yesterday, the Cincinnati Reds outfield is something of a mess right now. However, there is one leviathan-sized exception: 21 year-old prodigy Jay Bruce. Since the Texas native was selected out of high school with the 12th overall selection in the 2005 amateur entry draft, Bruce has been “The Boss” of minor league pitchers by compiling a career .308/.366/.555 minor league line. In his first action in the big leagues, the 6-3, 205 pounder held his own (.254/.314/.453). That’s pretty darned impressive for a guy in the majors at an age where some players are college juniors. To determine what we can expect from Bruce in 2009 and beyond, let’s take a closer look at his minor league resume.

2005
GCL Reds (Rookie ball, GCL): 122 AB, .270/.331/.500, 9BB%, 25.4K%, .230 ISO
Billings (Rookie ball, Pioneer League): 70 AB, .257/.358/.457, 15.7BB%, 31.4K%, .200 ISO

Right off the bat, Bruce showed the lefty pop that led Baseball America to liken him to a young Larry Walker who possessed the “strength and skill to eventually hit 30-plus homers.” In a small sample size, he showed the ability to drive the ball, though the K rates were a bit high. BA noted that he could occasionally become “antsy” at the dish. Still, as far as debuts go, this was an extremely promising one. Prior to the 2006 season, BA ranked Bruce as the 76th-best prospect in the minors.

2006
Dayton (Low-A, Midwest League): 444 AB, .291/.355/.516, 9BB%, 23.9K%, .225 ISO

In a league that tends to suppress power, Bruce posted a .220+ ISO as a 19-year old. He popped 16 home runs while compiling 63 extra-base hits overall. Suffice it to say, those power projections looked spot-on after his full-season debut. Prior to the 2007 season, Baseball America ranked Bruce as the 14th-best prospect in the minors, again making comparisons to Walker. His walk rate was solid, if unspectacular, and the K rate was a little high, but few teenagers show as much in-game power as Bruce did at such an early stage of development. As BA noted, “he can show more plate discipline, but the Reds will happily live with some strikeouts if Bruce continues to pound the ball.”

2007
Sarasota (High-A, Florida State League): 268 AB, .325/.380/.586, 8.2BB%, 25K%, .261 ISO
Chattanooga (AA, Southern League): 66 AB, .333/.405/.652, 10.8BB%, 30.3K%, .318 ISO
Louisville (AAA, International League): 187 AB, .305/.356/.567, 7.4BB%, 25.7K%, .262 ISO

Talk about a quick rise through the minor leagues. Bruce obliterated the baseball at every stop, hitting a combined 26 homers and 80 extra-base hits (!) between his three stops. His control of the strike zone remained a bit unrefined, as the lofty strikeout rates and moderate walk rates attest, but for a 20 year-old to sprint through the minors and tear the seams off of the ball at every level is mighty impressive. Prior to the ’08 season, Baseball America ranked Bruce as the very best prospect in the game, rating his power as a 65-70 while rating all of his tools as at least a 55 on the 20-80 scouting scale (50 is considered major league average). In other words, BA ranked every aspect of Bruce’s game as above the norm.

2008
Louisville: 184 AB, .364/.403/.630, 6.1BB%, 24.5K%, .266 ISO
Cincinnati (MLB): 413 AB, .254/.314/.453, 7.4 BB% 26.6K%, .199 ISO

After aggressively punishing the International League pitching staff for a while, Bruce was called up to Cincinnati in late May and proceeded to cream everything in sight, posting an absurd 1.575 OPS in 25 PA. He cooled off over the next few months before posting solid numbers in September and early October (.924 OPS in 92 PA). The strikeout rate remains something of an issue (his contact rate with the Reds was a low 71.61%) and he was a bit liberal in terms of swinging at pitches thrown out of the strike zone (30.39 O-Swing%). However, considering Bruce’s lukewarm walk rates in the minors, a 7.4BB% is rather promising for a 21 year-old cutting his teeth in the majors, as is the near-.200 ISO.

Bruce is obviously an extremely valuable long-term property. In keeper leagues, he should be near the top of your list. However, I would caution against going too hog-wild for him in 2009. He’s a very bright young player with star-caliber talent, but he also has some rough edges to smooth out in the plate discipline department. Select Bruce knowing that he has the ability to become a star, but also knowing that he might not quite reach that level this upcoming season.