We’re reaching the home stretch in our “Prospects in Proper Context” series, as we turn our attention to the AAA International League today. It’s often said that Triple-A is more of a holding cell for veterans and Quad-A-type players than a level that truly promising youngsters spend a good deal of time at, and this list bears that out. As such, I broke one of my own rules for this list: I lowered the minimum AB necessary to qualify for the list from 200 to 150, to squeeze in a sweet-swinging right fielder for the Reds. The point of these posts is to get a grasp on who has the most potential once age and offensive environment are taken into account. Leaving off Jay Bruce would just be silly. The first two players profiled have the necessary skills to become championship-caliber assets, but the rankings thin out from there.

Here are links to the other six parts of our prospects series:

High-A
Florida State League
Carolina League
California League

Double-A
Texas League
Southern League
Eastern League

(note: 2008 league offensive levels are found courtesy of First Inning. Keep in mind that the league offensive levels are only from one season’s worth of data. Park factors are from 2006-2008 data compiled from Minor League Splits, posted on the Baseball Think Factory site. A park factor of 1.00 is exactly neutral. Anything above 1.00 favors hitters, while anything below 1.00 favors pitchers. The Park Adjusted Line (PAL) and Major League Equivalency (MLE) figures are compiled from Minor League Splits. A 150 AB cut-off was used for the list.)

AAA International League offensive Levels: Singles (0.91), Doubles (1.02), Triples (1.01), Home Runs (0.99)

1. Jay Bruce, Reds: .437 wOBA (.364/.393/.630)
Age: 21 (22 in April)
Position: RF
2006-2008 Park Factor (Louisville): Runs (1.05), Hits (1.03), Doubles (1.00), Home Runs (0.97)
Park Adjusted Line (PAL): .359/.388/.641
Major League Equivalency (MLE): .310/.333/.540

The amateur draft has justifiably been called a crapshoot. Despite the presence of highly talented and nuanced scouting departments that check and cross-check hundreds of players each year, there is a high degree of volatility in the process. Baseball’s draft just isn’t like those of its professional contemporaries, the NBA and the NFL; most players selected have plenty of development left and are years away from contributing at the highest level. Because of this, the amateur draft’s history is littered with high picks who just never refined their skills or ultimately had a flaw that kept them from reaching the lofty standards set by the player’s organization.

The outfield class from the 2005 draft, however, is shaping up to be an exception to the rule. Take a look at the absurd amount of fly-catching talent: first-round selections included Justin Upton (quickly moved off shortstop, Ryan Braun (sent to left field after a, ahem, bad year at third base), Cameron Maybin, Andrew McCutchen, Jay Bruce, Jacoby Ellsbury, Colby Rasmus and Travis Buck. Ellsbury looks more solid than spectacular and Buck has endured some injury problems, but Upton, Braun, Maybin, McCutchen, Bruce and Rasmus could all be described as organizational pillars. Teams could have played “pin-the-tail-on-the-outfield-prospect” and came away with a stud.

Bruce’s exploits have already been covered here in detail. Suffice it to say, a guy who posts a near-.200 ISO when he’s just barely old enough to drink deserves plenty of acclaim. I’ll leave you with this excerpt from the article:

“Bruce is obviously an extremely valuable long-term property. In keeper leagues, he should be near the top of your list. However, I would caution against going too hog-wild for him in 2009. He’s a very bright young player with star-caliber talent, but he also has some rough edges to smooth out in the plate discipline department. Select Bruce knowing that he has the ability to become a star, but also knowing that he might not quite reach that level this upcoming season.”

2. Andrew McCutchen, Pirates: .347 wOBA (.283/.372/.398)
Age: 22 (21 during ’08 season)
Position: CF
2006-2008 Park Factor (Indianapolis): R (0.99), H (1.01), 2B (1.00), HR (0.98)
PAL: .278/.367/.391
MLE: .238/.313/.325

As noted above, McCutchen was part of that ridiculous 2005 outfield crop. While the Fort Meade (FL) native might lack the punch of prospect contemporaries like Bruce, Maybin and Rasmus, McCutchen more than held his own as a 21 year-old in AAA. The 5-11, 175 pounder probably won’t hit for more than doubles power, though some (including ESPN’s Keith Law) feel that there might be more thump to come if he alters his swing:

“McCutchen has strong wrists and forearms and makes hard contact, but doesn’t get his lower half involved at all and thus hasn’t hit for the kind of power he’s capable of producing.”

Law also rightly points out that McCutchen has been pushed up the ladder pretty rapidly, skipping High-A ball entirely by jumping straight from the South Atlantic League to the Eastern League in 2006. McCutchen made excellent strides in working the count at Indianapolis this past year, raising his walk rate from about 8% in years past to 11.7%, while also cutting his K rate to 17%. An excellent athlete, McCutchen remains pretty raw on the base paths (he swiped 34 bags in ’08, but he was caught 19 times for a poor 64% success rate) but has shown plenty of range in the field.

His plus glove will likely move incumbent Nate McLouth out of center field sooner rather than later, a positive development despite McLouth’s odd Gold Glove selection. Both John Dewan’s Plus/Minus system (-40) and our UZR data (-15.1 UZR/150) suggest that Nate is stretched patrolling center. Moving McLouth to a corner and inserting McCutchen should aid a beleaguered Pittsburgh pitching staff.

For more on McCutchen, check out Peter Bendix’s article here.

3. Jed Lowrie, Red Sox: .350 wOBA (.268/.359/.434)
Age: 24 (25 in April)
Position: SS
2006-2008 Park Factor (Pawtucket): R (1.02), H (1.00), 2B (0.97), HR (1.18)
PAL: .263/.355/.419
MLE: .224/.299/.351

This switch-hitting Stanford product has made steady progress since the Red Sox selected him in the supplemental 1st round of the 2005 amateur draft. A career .281/.387/.446 minor league hitter, Lowrie has a discerning eye at the plate that helped him draw a walk 13.5% of the time at Pawtucket. Making his major league debut while filling in for an injured Julio Lugo, Lowrie performed admirably, batting .258/.339/.400 in 306 PA. Jed does not possess a whole lot of power in his 6-0, 190 pound frame, but his combination of walks and doubles power could make him an asset to the Sox. To boot, Lowrie’s defensive scouting reports are reading better these days, and his initial work in Boston rated well.

There are some negatives, though: at 25, Lowrie probably does not have a whole lot of development left in him, meaning what you see is what you get, and his strikeout rates have elevated as he’s ascended through the farm system.

In 2009, Lowrie will battle the incumbent Lugo for the starting shortstop gig. Lugo hasn’t really hit much since signing a 4-year, $36M deal with the Sox before the 2007 season. The 33 year-old has posted wOBA’s of .293 and 317 in ’07 and ’08, respectively. CHONE projects Lugo to post a .319 wOBA in 2009, compared to .335 for Lowrie. One could make the argument that Lugo’s glove makes the difference, but Lugo has posted two campaigns in negative UZR/150 territory over the past three seasons. Lowrie appears to be the superior player at this point, though it’s not a runaway win.

For more on Lowrie, check out Brian Joura’s article here.

4. Matthew Joyce, Rays: .384 wOBA (.270/.352/.550)
Age: 24 (23 during ’08 season)
Position: OF
2006-2008 Park Factor (Toledo): R (0.95), H (0.98), 2B (1.07), HR (0.90)
PAL: .275/.357/.565
MLE: .234/.304/.463

Before Joyce was shipped to Tampa Bay for Edwin Jackson in a rather questionable swap for the Tigers, he mashed for Toledo in the International League and more than held his own in Detroit. In the articled linked to above, Dave Cameron compares Joyce to a Jayson Werth-type player, and the comparison seems apt from this writer’s vantage point. Both are very rangy corner outfielders who absolutely mash opposite-handed pitching, while having some issues with same-side hurlers.

While Werth is a right-handed hitter demolishing southpaws, the lefty-swinging Joyce hammers righties. In his minor league career, the Florida Southern product has batted .294/.355/.475 versus right-handers, compared to .239/.328/.393 versus those pesky left-handers. In 2008, Joyce creamed International League righties to the tune of .286/.366/.610 and continued to treat them rudely in the majors (.255/.333/.509). Overall, the 12th-round selection in the ’05 draft posted a .355 wOBA in his first big league action, with an 11.4 BB%.

Joyce is certainly not a perfect player-he has issues with lefties and will swing and miss pretty frequently- but if properly utilized, he could be a large asset to both the Rays and fantasy owners alike. In his article examining Joyce, Peter Bendix summed it up perfectly:

“Matt Joyce is probably not a top tier fantasy outfielder, thanks to his struggles against left handed pitching. However, there are far more righties than lefties out there for him to face, and Joyce should mash against righties, and could supply 25-30 homers even if he’s platooned, thus making him a very valuable commodity late in drafts.”

5. Denard Span, Twins: .407 wOBA (.340/.434/.481)
Age: 24 (25 in February)
Position: OF
2006-2008 Park Factor (Rochester): R (1.00), H (1.00), 2B (1.03), HR (1.00)
PAL: .346/.440/.487
MLE: .298/.379/.391

Entering the 2008 season, Span was fighting for his prospect life. The 2002 first-round pick had been a perennial disappointment, posting a lukewarm .282/.349/.347 career line through 2007. In 2008, it was almost as if Span emerged as a new player, doing his best Kenny Lofton impersonation along the way.

While Span’s AAA work was batting average-fueled, his time with the Twins was pretty impressive: in 411 PA, he drew a free pass 12.6% of the time and compiled a .387 OBP. I took a look at Span earlier this offseason, attempting to figure out whether or not his ’08 showing was just a flash in the pan or a harbinger of things to come. While I wouldn’t go quite so far as to expect a repeat performance, I think that Span has made some legitimate changes that portend to long-term success:

“Ordinarily, one might regard Span’s season as a blip, a flash in the pan. How often does a career disappointment suddenly start raking in the majors? However, there are some reasons to think that Span made some legitimate improvements in his game this past season. He drew walks at a 12.6% clip for the Twinkies while keeping his K rate in check (17.3%). His contact rate was a healthy 88.7%, and he almost never strayed from the strike zone, with an OSwing% of just 16.7%. That was the 10th-lowest figure among batters with at least 400 PA. Span’s stolen base prowess improved somewhat, at least to the point where he wasn’t harming his team (using the .22 run value for a SB and the -.38 value for a CS, Span’s 18/25 season came out to a net positive of 1.3 runs).”

“It’s not that uncommon for a player to experience a single-season hike in batting average or power, but it’s far more rare for a batter to show much-improved plate patience and then give all of those gains back the following year. Span’s increased walk rate and very low O-Swing% paint the picture of a hitter who refined his control of the strike zone and took a more mature approach with him to the batter’s box.”

If Span retains the patient approach that he brought with him to Minnesota, he could be a valuable commodity as a high-OBP player with some speed.

After hitting below .190 in his first two pro seasons combined (479 at-bats), it looked like Robert Andino was going to be a bust. The 2002 second round draft pick out of high school improved the next season, though, and hit .280 between two A-ball levels. At the end of 2005, he earned a late-season call-up to Florida and played in 17 games but hit just .159/.245/.250.

In 2006, Andino began his first of three straight seasons in Triple-A. He hit .256/.304/.364 and received another brief call-up to the Majors. The next season, the shortstop had his best full season in the minors and hit .278/.322/.428 in 598 at-bats with 13 triples, 13 home runs and 21 stolen bases (although he was caught 13 times). Andino received his third Major League stint and appeared in seven games.

Finally, in 2008, the Miami native had the chance to spend some significant time in Florida. He appeared in just 43 Triple-A games, while spending the rest of the season in the Majors. That said, he managed to get into just 44 games and had only 63 at-bats while hitting .206/.254/.333 with an ISO of .127. He also posted rates of 6.0 BB% and 36.5 K% while being shuttled between the Majors and Triple-A all season long.

Recently in the newspaper, Andino expressed a desire to play or be traded. It’s not surprising that the 24 year old does not see a future for himself in Florida with Hanley Ramirez at shortstop (.308/.400/.540 career) and Dan Uggla at second base (.262/.341/.490 career). The club also traded for young second baseman Emilio Bonifacio earlier in the off-season. The problem for Andino, though, is that he has little trade value at this point because he has yet to prove that he can hit Major League pitching.

Andino is also out of options, which means he’ll have to go through waivers if Florida attempts to send him down at any point in 2009. The Pittsburgh Pirates were rumored to have been interested in Andino earlier in the winter. There is a lot of varying thought on Andino, who strikes out way too much for a player with modest power. He also does not take advantage of his speed due to poor instincts on the base paths. The CHONE projection system suggests a 2009 line of .237/.296/.352 (in 489 at-bats), while Marcel projects .262/.326/.410 (in 219 at-bats).

It’s possible that everything could click for the athletic Andino is 2009, but a lot of things have to go right for that to happen, including a trade or waiver claim to get him out of Florida.

Some guys get all the breaks and some guys get no breaks. Joe Koshansky of the Colorado Rockies falls squarely into the latter group, thanks in no small part to the presence of Mr. Rockie Todd Helton.

Koshansky has slugged 83 home runs in the past three seasons, including 21 in Triple-A in 2007 and 31 in Triple-A in 2008. The 26-year-old first baseman has also shown the ability to hit for a respectable average in Triple-A, having posted lines of .295/.380/.490 in 2007 and .300/.380/.600 in 2008. His ISO was an eye-popping .300 (anyone with an ISO above .200 is considered a power hitter). The left-handed hitter was no softy against southpaws in 2008. He managed a line of .310/.372/.612 in 116 at-bats.

The former sixth round drafted pick out of the University of Virginia, who signed as a senior selection, is running out of time to prove himself. He’ll be 27 in May, which is about the time power hitters tend to hit their stride. Koshansky is roughly the same build as Richie Sexson (although he’s about four inches shorter than the former Cleveland Indians first baseman). Sexson lost his mojo at the age of 32.

Koshansky’s biggest weakness would be the strikeout. He has posted strikeout rates in the past three seasons of 26.8%, 25.7%, and 34.6%. The first baseman has also begun to earn a bit of a reputation as a possible Quad-A slugger thanks to his struggles at the Major League level in the past two seasons, albeit in a small sample size. Koshansky has a career line of .180/.236/.440 with three home runs in 50 at-bats. Both the CHONE and Marcel projection systems see Koshansky as a .250 hitter. CHONE sees Koshansky as having the ability to slug 25 home runs at the Major League level with regular playing time. Those numbers are not outstanding, but there are a few teams in Major League Baseball that could use that kind of power production.

At 35, Helton’s best days as a power hitter are behind him after managing home run totals of 15, 17, and seven in the past three seasons. Even so, Helton is still a .300 hitter (the injury-marred 2008 season aside) and, in his last two healthy seasons in 2006 and 2007, he drove in a total of 207 runs. He also scored 172 runs. Coming off a poor season due to injuries, and with three more years plus an option remaining on his contract totaling just shy of $60 million, Helton is not going anywhere.

It’s also disconcerting for Koshansky’s future in Colorado that he did not receive more opportunities in 2008 after Helton appeared in just 83 games. The Louisiana native was given just eight starts at first base last season and the club moved third baseman Garrett Atkins across the diamond to allow Ian Stewart the opportunity to play everyday at the hot corner during Helton’s time off.

Clearly, if Koshansky is going to earn a fair shot at a starting role at the Major League level it is not going to come in Colorado. Teams that could use a first baseman or designated hitter include Washington, Florida, Seattle, Los Angeles (AL), and Baltimore (although that club has a crowded outfield picture).

Today, we’ll wrap up our look at the top offensive prospects in Double-A with the Eastern League. In case you haven’t gotten the chance to check out the lists for the High-A level and the other two Double-A levels or you would just like a refresher, here they are:

High-A
Florida State League
Carolina League
California League

Double-A
Texas League
Southern League

The Eastern League list leads off with a familiar face who might just be the best prospect in the game, and the rankings feature depth to boot. Among those receiving consideration but not appearing in the top five: outfielders Austin Jackson (Yankees), Nicholas Evans (Mets), Daniel Murphy (Mets), Jose Tabata (Pirates), Nolan Reimold (Orioles), shortstop Jason Donald (Phillies) and third baseman Wes Hodges (Indians). Red Sox first base prospect Lars Anderson missed the 200 PA cut-off.

(note: 2008 league offensive levels are found courtesy of First Inning. Keep in mind that the league offensive levels are only from one season’s worth of data. Park factors are from 2006-2008 data compiled from Minor League Splits, posted on the Baseball Think Factory site. A park factor of 1.00 is exactly neutral. Anything above 1.00 favors hitters, while anything below 1.00 favors pitchers. The Park Adjusted Line (PAL) and Major League Equivalency (MLE) figures are compiled from Minor League Splits. A 200 PA cut-off was used for the list.)

AA Eastern League offensive levels: Singles (0.96), Doubles (1.00), Triples (1.00), Home Runs (1.00)

1. Matt Wieters, Orioles: .472 wOBA (.365/.460/.626)
Age: 22
Position: C
2006-2008 Park Factor (Bowie): Runs (0.95), Hits (0.97), Doubles (1.00), Home Runs (1.03)
Park-Adjusted Line: .376/.470/.639
Major League Equivalency: .295/.395/.479

I think that we have run out of superlatives to describe Matt Wieters. The switch-hitting, power-hitting Georgia Tech product also paced out Carolina League list, and what was said of him there still applies:

“Wieters’ performance was head-and-shoulders above everyone else. He switch-hits. He draws a ton of walks. He can drive the ball as far as anyone. Wieters’ performance actually improved significantly upon a promotion to Double A. Think about that: his .345/.448/.576 line at Frederick (High-A) was his weaker showing in 2008. He even comes with a pretty solid defensive reputation, despite being a pretty large human being (6-4, 230 pounds). Earlier this offseason, Peter Bendix wondered if Wieters might be Joe Mauer with more power. This Pirates fan is going to go cry himself to sleep, haunted by memories of Daniel Moskos.”

Check out Wieters’ Major League Equivalency at Bowie- his performance basically reminds one of…well, Joe Mauer with more power. Gregg Zaun is the O’s starting catcher for the moment. But when he steps aside and reclaims his role as the “Practically Perfect Backup Catcher”, Wieters figures to rake from day one.

2. Travis Snider, Blue Jays: .366 wOBA (.262/.357/.461)
Age: 21 (20 during ’08 season)
Position: LF/DH
2006-2008 Park Factor (New Hampshire): R (1.01), H (0.99), 2B (1.04), HR (1.05)
PAL: .276/.367/.459
MLE: .222/.315/.354

21 in February, Snider will never be known for his defensive prowess- at 5-11 and 245 pounds, his build brings to mind that of Matt Stairs. The lefty might be relegated to DH duty in the long run, but man, can he hit. Taken with the 14th overall selection in the 2006 amateur draft, the Washington prep product has compiled a career .299/.375/.513 line in the minors, and he more than held his own during a short stint with the Jays this past September, batting .301/.338/.466 in 80 PA. At New Hampshire, Snider posted a near-.200 ISO as a 21 year-old while also showcasing a good eye with a 12.6 BB%. His contact rate is somewhat concerning (he whiffed 36.1% of the time at High-A and 32% at AA), but Toronto’s best young hitter possesses the secondary skills to make up for a middling batting average.

3. Louis Marson, Phillies: .391 wOBA (.314/.433/.416)
Age: 22
Position: C
2006-2008 Park Factor (Reading): R (1.03), H (1.00), 2B (0.96), HR (1.22)
PAL: .317/.433/.416
MLE: .249/.369/.322

Lou Marson’s career got off to something of a slow start (from 2004-2006, he posted OBP’s between .329-.343 and SLG%’s between .351-.389), but he’s made major strides over the past two seasons. The 4th-round pick from the ’04 draft has uncanny control of the strike zone- he drew a free pass an astounding 17.4% of the time at Reading. While no one questions Marson’s plate approach, there are concerns over his power ceiling (Marson’s ISO was just .102). It’s possible that the walks will dry up somewhat at the highest level (pitchers might not be so stringent with a low-power guy with a great eye- the worst that can happen in most cases is a single). If you want to be really optimistic, you could think of Marson as Russell Martin-lite, though Kurt Suzuki might be a more reasonable approximation.

4. J.P. Arencibia, Blue Jays: .348 wOBA (.282/.302/.496)
Age: 23 (22 during ’08 season)
Position: C
2006-2008 Park Factor (New Hampshire): R (1.01), H (0.99), 2B (1.04), HR (1.05)
PAL: .292/.311/.485
MLE: .243/.262/.388

One could make the argument that Arencibia should rank ahead of Marson on the basis of his power- Arencibia has a career .481 slugging percentage in the minors as well as a .214 ISO at New Hampshire on the heels of a .246 showing at High-A Dunedin. While Marson’s biggest question is his pop, Arencibia’s most glaring weakness is his plate discipline. Arencibia wasn’t exactly patient at Dunedin (4.2 BB%) and his hacking tendency only intensified upon reaching Double-A: he walked just 2.6% of the time at New Hampshire, posting a ghastly 0.13 BB/K ratio. Arencibia ranks well on the basis of his offensive thunder at a premium position, but major league pitchers are going to carve him up if he doesn’t learn to show a little restraint.

5. Fernando Martinez, Mets: .346 wOBA (.287/.340/.432)
Age: 20 (19 during ’08 season)
Position: Corner OF
2006-2008 Park Factor (Binghamton): R (1.05), H (1.05), 2B (1.04), HR (1.05)
PAL: .274/.328/.416
MLE: .222/.278/.328

Martinez is the most polarizing name on this list- it seems as though some are very strong proponents of the $1.3 million Dominican bonus baby, feeling that he has performed quite well in advanced leagues at an exceptionally young age. Others are less enthusiastic, particularly noting his durability issues (according to Baseball America, a bone bruise and a knee sprain in ’06, a broken hamate bone in ’07 and hamstring problems in ’08). Setting aside his numerous ailments, Martinez possesses a tremendous amount of talent. The lefty batter has not set the world afire during his pro career, but his numbers become considerably more impressive when you check his birth certificate- Martinez was several years younger than most of his peers. How many teenagers could avoid embarrassing themselves just two steps away from the majors, let alone hold their own like Martinez did?

When the Chicago Cubs inked talented-but-nomadic outfielder Milton Bradley to a three-year, $30 million deal earlier this month, the writing was on the wall for Felix Pie. The soon-to-be 24 year-old was ranked by Baseball America as Chicago’s best prospect in both 2006 and 2007, but it seemed as though the organization had soured on the Dominican Republic native. Despite a fairly impressive minor league dossier (Pie is a career .299/.353/.470 hitter) and above-average range, Felix evidently made a bad impression in two stale cups of coffee with the Cubbies in ’07 and ’08: in 260 career PA, the lanky lefty hit .223/.284/.331.

With Pie out of minor league options and the Cubs looking for some additional pitching depth, the North Siders have reportedly shipped their erstwhile top prospect to the Baltimore Orioles in exchange for 25 year-old lefty Garrett Olson and A-Ball righty Henry Williamson. The merits of this deal from Chicago’s standpoint can certainly be debated- Olson has endured quite the rough introduction to the majors as well, with a 5.28 FIP in 165 innings. His work in the minors (8.91 K/9, 2.93 BB/9) suggests he’s capable of better. However, as a finesse, fly-ball starter, it’s difficult to project Olson as more than a back-end starter. Will the Cubs come to regret letting their former star pupil leave town for a B-level pitching prospect?

Pie is coming off of just a fair season at AAA Iowa, having batted .287/.336/.466 in 368 PA. His walk rate has never been especially high (6.4 BB% in ’08, 8.2% career), but the 6-2, 170 pounder did display decent pop (.179 ISO) and only struck out 16.1% of the time. The previous season, he scorched the corn fields to the tune of .362/.410/.563 in 250 PA. That showing was surely aided by a ridiculous .411 BABIP, but the line serves to show that that it wasn’t all that long ago that Pie was raking and looking like a future pillar for the Cubs.

So, Pie isn’t coming off of a great season, but he still held his own in AAA as a 23 year-old at an up-the-middle position. But with the rangy Adam Jones patrolling center field (+8.5 UZR/150 during the ’08 season) and the terminally underrated Nick Markakis holding down right field, Pie might head to the bench for the time being and perhaps take over for left fielder Luke Scott at some point. Another option allows the O’s to move Scott to DH and insert Pie in left on Opening Day. Here’s what Rotoworld had to say about Pie playing left field in Baltimore:

“Not yet 24 years old, Pie was a nice target as a true center fielder with power and speed, but the Orioles are an odd fit with Adam Jones already patrolling center. Pie is for left field, but he doesn’t offer nearly enough offensively to carry the position.”

Now, Rotoworld is a tremendous website and offers a level of insight that few others match. However, I have to take issue with this statement, and others like it that I have seen over the winter. I think that there’s a sort of misconception with players like Pie, who might not at first blush appear capable of “carrying” a corner outfield position.

Let’s call it the “Randy Winn Effect.” Winn, as you probably know, is the right fielder for the San Francisco Giants. Upon first glance, he might appear to be ill-suited for a corner outfield spot- after all, he has slugged just .445 and .426 over the past two seasons. However, Winn offers something that few corner outfielders provide: plus defense. Winn has posted UZR/150 figures of 11.9 in 2007 and 18.9 in 2008. While his bat might be average by positional standards, he adds a significant amount of additional value with the leather compared to his plodding peers. In fact, Winn ranked 5th among all right fielders in Win Values this past season, with 4.6. While that was a high-water mark, Winn has been worth an average of 2.9 wins over the past three seasons.

Which brings us back to Pie. Sure, Pie’s offensive output at this point in his career might look ordinary, perhaps even somewhat below average for a corner outfielder. However, one has to consider defense as part of the equation. Pie might not hit like some of the more thunderous bats that typify a corner position, but his level of defensive ability figures to be significantly higher than most of his peers. Those additional runs that he saves in the field count- he adds value in an area where most of his contemporaries harm theirs. You might hear an analyst say that a player like Pie is “wasted” in a corner spot. That’s just not true- the offensive standard might be higher in left field than in center, but Pie’s range saves runs compared to the average left fielder. Those runs count, too.

Let’s give Pie a hypothetical 600 PA for the Orioles in 2009. CHONE, a projection system that incorporates minor league and major league data, pegs Pie for a .333 wOBA, just about dead-on average. Given his sturdy minor league record, that seems reasonable. Maybe a tad optimistic in his first crack at regular playing time, but let’s stick with it for now.

With a .333 wOBA, Pie projects to contribute about 0 runs above average with the bat. Pie has solid scouting reports afield and has done nice work in a small number of innings for the Cubs. As a left fielder, let’s say that Pie is a +7.5 run fielder. Adding in the positional adjustment (-7.5 runs per 162 games) and adjusting for replacement level (+20 runs), Pie projects to be worth a little north of 2 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) for the O’s. For comparison, newly-signed Phillie Raul Ibanez was worth 2.2 WAR for the Mariners in 2008, and free agent Adam Dunn was worth 1.8 WAR. Both of those guys are better hitters than Pie, but Ibanez and Dunn punt so much of their value with the leather that the overall level of value between the three projects to be negligible.

While Felix Pie’s stock might have taken somewhat of a hit with a rough introduction to the big leagues, he will play the entire 2009 season as a 24 year-old, retains some promise with the bat and projects to be a significantly better fielder than his peers in a corner outfield spot. His contribution to the O’s might not pop out at one the way that a monstrous batting line does, but Pie’s combination of decent hitting and slick glove work makes him yet another interesting position player for an organization that already houses Markakis, Jones and catcher Matt Wieters. Pie is worth a look in deeper leagues and should aid a mediocre Baltimore rotation in the immediate future. Beyond that, the outlook could be rosier if Pie takes flight with his tether now removed by the O’s.

Chicago’s loss is the Baltimore’s gain: long-term, Pie should provide decent numbers with the stick while teaming with Markakis and Jones to form an athletic, run-saving outfield trio. When pitching prospects like Christopher Tillman, Jake Arrieta and Brian Matusz break into the big leagues, they’ll be flanked by three rangy outfielders who will cover the gaps with ease.

Continuing our series examining some of the most highly skilled and promising youngsters in the minors, we’re going to shine the spotlight on the AA Southern League today. The Southern League featured a very deep pool of players for this list. Among those who tore the cover off of the ball but didn’t quite make the cut: “catcher” Angel Salome of the Brewers, first baseman Gaby Sanchez and second baseman Christopher Coghlan (Marlins), catcher Adam Moore and center fielders Michael Saunders and Gregory Halman (Mariners) and shortstop Ivan DeJesus Jr (Dodgers).

If you need a refresher on the methods used for this list or you haven’t had the chance to check out the overviews of the other leagues, here they are:

Florida State League
Carolina League
California League
Texas League

(note: 2008 league offensive levels are found courtesy of First Inning. Keep in mind that the league offensive levels are only from one season’s worth of data. Park factors are from 2006-2008 data compiled from Minor League Splits, posted on the Baseball Think Factory site. A park factor of 1.00 is exactly neutral. Anything above 1.00 favors hitters, while anything below 1.00 favors pitchers. The Park Adjusted Line (PAL) and Major League Equivalency (MLE) figures are compiled from Minor League Splits. A 200 PA cut-off was used for the list.)

AA Southern League offensive levels: Singles (0.96), Doubles (1.02), Triples (1.01), Home Runs (0.98)

1. Cameron Maybin, Marlins: .381 wOBA (.277/.375/.456)
Age: 21
Position: CF
2006-2008 Park Factor (Carolina): Runs (1.01), Hits (1.00), Doubles (1.13), Home Runs (0.95)
Park Adjusted Line (PAL): .283/.380/.467
Major League Equivalency (MLE): .232/.331/.362
Baseball America Southern League Ranking: 3rd overall (1st hitter)

Peter Bendix wrote about Maybin a few months back, and much of what he writes pertaining to 2009 is important to remember: Maybin’s “The Natural”-esque performance in 36 PA at the end of last season was just that: a 36 PA sample. He’s an outstanding prospect, but it wouldn’t be advisable to expect instant success based on a few dozen trips to the plate. While Florida’s major prize in the Miguel Cabrera/Dontrelle Willis swap could use some more development time (he struck out nearly 32% of the time in AA), he does have quite a bit going for him. Maybin has a sound approach at the plate that allowed him to draw walks at a 13.3% pace, and he coupled that patience with solid power (.179 ISO) and fairly efficient base thievery (21 SB in 28 attempts). To boot, the 6-4, 205 pounder is a plus defender in center field.

The Asheville, North Carolina native may well have tremendous long-term value to the ‘Fins as a Mike Cameron-type player. Keep an eye on his whiff rate, however: strikeouts certainly do not preclude a player from becoming quite successful, but in the short run that elevated K rate suggests that Maybin would be best served honing his game at Florida’s new AAA affiliate in New Orleans.

2. Matt LaPorta, Indians: .429 wOBA (.288/.402/.576)
Age: 23 (22 during ’08 season)
Position: LF/1B?
2006-2008 Park Factor (Huntsville): Runs (0.98), Hits (1.00), Doubles (0.96), Home Runs (1.07)
Park Adjusted Line (PAL): .291/.404/.573
Major League Equivalency (MLE): .236/.347/.437
Baseball America Southern League Ranking: 4th overall (2nd hitter)

Cleveland’s shiny new toy acquired in the CC Sabathia
swap, LaPorta possesses the secondary skills (walks and power) to become one of the most prolific hitters in the National League. The University of Florida alum entered his junior season as one of the most highly regarded prospects in the college game, but an injury caused his performance to drop, and his name wasn’t called until the 14th round of the 2006 amateur draft by the Boston Red Sox. LaPorta declined to sign, returned to Florida for his senior year and proceeded to rake. The following year, the Brewers came calling much earlier, selecting the 6-1, 220 pounder with the 7th overall pick in the draft.

At the time, LaPorta was viewed as something of an overdraft, and others questioned why the Brew Crew would take a defensively-challenged player like LaPorta when the club already had Prince Fielder in the fold. LaPorta is a terrific example of why major league organizations just plain don’t draft based on the composition of the major league roster. Milwaukee took the player whom they felt had the best chance of becoming an impact player in the big leagues, regardless of position or fit. And for that, they were rewarded with the necessary munitions to acquire a hired gun the caliber of Sabathia for the stretch run last season.

While LaPorta struggled a bit in a very small 60 PA sample after Cleveland acquired him, he put together a tremendous season for Milwaukee’s AA Huntsville affiliate. He’s no great shakes in the outfield (no surprise for a converted first baseman), but a guy who posts a .402 OBP and a .288 ISO can play anywhere. Check out LaPorta’s major league equivalent line: it suggests that he’s not very far away from contributing in Cleveland.

3. Jordan Schafer, Braves: .386 wOBA (.269/.378/.471)
Age: 22 (21 during ’08 season)
Position: CF
2006-2008 Park Factor (Mississippi): Runs (0.97), Hits (1.00), Doubles (1.00), Home Runs (0.83)
Park Adjusted Line (PAL): .272/.380/.483
Major League Equivalency (MLE): .221/.331/.372
Baseball America Southern League Ranking: 13th overall (7th hitter)

Schafer’s 2008 season got off to an inauspicious start as he drew a 50-game suspension for alleged use of Human Growth Hormone, but the rangy center fielder impressed once he did take the field. Schafer, who posted a .307 wOBA and a 6.8 BB% in 2006, continued his offensive improvement, working a walk 14.2% of the time while smacking 10 HR with a .202 ISO in a park that suppresses power. On the negative side, Schafer’s K rate jumped to 29.6%, and he managed a feeble .196/.306/.299 line against fellow southpaws in 107 AB. The lackluster performance against lefties was a continuation of a career-long trend: Schafer has batted .281/.349/.487 against righties, but just .236/.310/.331 versus same-side pitching.

4. Alcides Escobar, Brewers: .369 wOBA (.328/.363/.434)
Age: 22 (21 during ’08 season)
Position: SS
2006-2008 Park Factor (Huntsville): Runs (0.98), Hits (1.00), Doubles (0.96), Home Runs (1.07)
Park Adjusted Line (PAL): .336/.370/.440
Major League Equivalency (MLE): .281/.318/.361
Baseball America Southern League Ranking: 5th overall (3rd hitter)

Escobar has long been known as a premium defensive shortstop, but he showed some signs of life at the dish in 2008 as well. Sure, his year was certainly batting average-fueled, but the fleet-of-foot Venezuelan has the sort of speed (34 SB, 8 CS) that allows one to project a higher BABIP- he’s more likely to beat out some of those grounders than a plodding type. He’ll never be confused with a great hitter, but Alcides’ combination of contact, speed and excellent defense should be enough to make him a pretty valuable player.

5. Mathew Gamel, Brewers: .409 wOBA (.329/.395/.537)
Age: 22
Position: “3B” (corner outfield?)
2006-2008 Park Factor (Huntsville): Runs (0.98), Hits (1.00), Doubles (0.96), Home Runs (1.07)
Park Adjusted Line (PAL): .333/.399/.537
Major League Equivalency (MLE): .275/.345/.424
Baseball America Southern League Ranking: 7th overall (4th hitter)

At first glance, Gamel and the Brewers appear to be a perfect match. After all, what could the righty-leaning Brewers use more than a lefty-batting third baseman? Bill Hall has followed up a very nice 2006 season with an adequate 2007 (.317 wOBA) and a putrid 2008 (.297 wOBA). Gamel to the rescue, right?

While the Chipola Junior College product displayed a good deal of pop (though his overall line was aided by a .392 BABIP), Gamel very likely lacks the defensive chops to remain at the hot corner. In fact, some scouting reports peg him as downright Braun-y at third. While errors are a poor barometer of defensive skill, Gamel’s totals are pretty astounding. At High-A Brevard County in 2007, Gamel committed 53 errors in just 113 games. In 2008, he “improved” to 30 miscues in 126 games. Gamel probably isn’t all that far away from contributing offensively, but in all likelihood he will have to find a new position, lest the constant “E-5” ‘s on the scoreboard give Milwaukee fans “Hebrew Hammer” flashbacks.

Earlier this week, we tore through A-ball and illuminated the best and the brightest farm products in the Florida State, Carolina and California Leagues. Now, it’s time to take a step up the organizational ladder and begin our examination of some of the more promising batting prospects at the Double A Level. You’ll notice two additional bits of information added to the player profiles since our look at the California League: a Park Adjusted Line (PAL), which neutralizes a player’s stats, and a Major League Equivalency (MLE), which gives us a rough estimate of how that player projects to the big leagues at this point in time. Both figures are from Minor League Splits, an invaluable resource for prospect statistics. Let’s kick off the Double-A phase with the Texas League.

(note: 2008 league offensive levels are found courtesy of First Inning. Keep in mind that the league offensive levels are only from one season’s worth of data. Park factors are from 2006-2008 data compiled from Minor League Splits, posted on the Baseball Think Factory site. A park factor of 1.00 is exactly neutral. Anything above 1.00 favors hitters, while anything below 1.00 favors pitchers. A 200 PA cut-off was used for the list.)

1. Dexter Fowler, Rockies: .423 wOBA (.335/.431/.515)
Age: 22
Position: CF
2006-2008 Park Factor (Tulsa): Runs (1.02), Hits (1.01), Doubles (1.05), Home Runs (1.08)
Park Adjusted Line (PAL): .333/.429/.504
Major League Equivalent (MLE): .260/.360/.379
Baseball America Texas League Ranking: 1st overall (1st hitter)

Long considered a five-tool force by the scouting community, Fowler managed to stay healthy and cobble together his best professional season in 2008. The switch-hitter was selected by Colorado in the 14th round of the 2004 draft- he would have gone much higher, but teams were scared off by scholarship offers to play basketball at Harvard and baseball at the University of Miami. The Rockies stepped up and inked Fowler for $925,000, and the above-slot bonus looks like a huge bargain at this point. After dealing with an ankle injury in 2006 and a broken hand in 2007, Fowler stayed on the field this past season and tapped into the power supply portended by his lanky 6-4, 175 pound frame. A plus center fielder, Fowler has impressive speed but hasn’t translated that to the base paths quite as well as one would like: he’s swiped 100 bags in his minor league career, but his 67.6% success rate needs some work. Just 22 and possessing a very professional approach at the plate (he drew a walk 13.4% of the time at Tulsa, and has a career .393 OBP), Fowler made a brief cameo in the majors in 2008 and is very close to becoming a key contributor for the Rockies.

2. Elvis Andrus, Rangers: .339 wOBA (.295/.350/.367)
Age: 20 (19 during ’08 season)
Position: SS
2006-2008 Park Factor (Frisco): R (0.99), H (0.99), 2B (0.95), HR (1.05)
PAL: .296/.351/.371
MLE: .235/.292/.290
BA Texas League Ranking: 5th overall (4th hitter)

As was the case with Seattle’s Carlos Triunfel, Andrus’ raw numbers don’t scream “future superstar.” However, one has to consider that the Venezuelan played essentially the entire 2008 season at the age of 19, yet managed to hold his own at the AA level. At a more age-appropriate level, it’s likely that Andrus would have experienced considerably greater success with the bat. The former Braves farmhand is not an especially large fellow and doesn’t project to hit for much power, but he has years of development time remaining. If he ends up providing league-average offense at the shortstop position and couples that with continued base running prowess (he stole 54 bags with a 77% success rate in ’08), then Andrus should be a pretty valuable player. On top of that, he might end up bumping curious Gold Glove selection Michael Young off of shortstop. While Young has improved from atrocious (he was over -20 runs per 150 defensive games in 2004 and 2005) to just below-average with the leather, it would probably be for the best if he shifted to the hot corner. For more on Andrus, see new Rotographs writer Ryan Glass’ piece on the young Ranger here.

3. Kyle Blanks, Padres: .408 wOBA (.325/.404/.514)
Age: 22 (21 during ’08 season)
Position: 1B
2006-2008 Park Factor (San Antonio): R (0.93), H (0.99), 2B (1.00), HR (0.84)
PAL: .331/.408/.535
MLE: .261/.338/.399
BA Texas League Ranking: 3rd overall (3rd hitter)

Blanks is an extremely large human being. Standing 6-6 and tipping the scales at 280 pounds, Blanks was snagged as a draft-and-follow selection in the 42nd round of the 2004 draft. With a career .393 OBP, Blanks has proven that he knows how to work the count, and he has put a charge into the ball over the past two seasons by reaching or surpassing the 20 home run mark. Blanks smashed 24 homers and slugged .540 in the California League last season, but his 20 homer, .514 slugging season in 2008 was likely more impressive, once one considers that he moved up a level and played his games in a less hospitable offensive environment. Just where Blanks fits in with the Padres remains to be seen. He’s not the sluggish athlete that his XL frame suggests, but it seems unlikely that he could handle a corner outfield spot. And while the Padres are thin on premium talent, first baseman Adrian Gonzalez is a tremendous player signed to an incredibly team-friendly pact (according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, Gonzalez will make $3M in ’09, $4.75M in 2010 and has an obvious $5.5M club option for the 2011 season). Whether the Fathers keep Gonzalez under those friendly terms or leverage that deal in a trade is uncertain. But Blanks should be a solid contributor in the majors sometime soon, be it with San Diego or elsewhere.

4. Maximiliano Ramirez, Rangers: .474 wOBA (.354/.450/.646)
Age: 24 (23 during ’08 season)
Position: C? 1B? DH?
2006-2008 Park Factor (Frisco): R (0.99), H (0.99), 2B (0.95), HR (1.05)
PAL: .354/.450/.638
MLE: .277/.377/.465
BA Texas League Ranking: 9th overall (6th hitter)

It’s pretty rare for a career .314/.414/.521 minor league hitter to exchange hands twice before he really even gets his feet wet at the major league level, but that’s precisely what has happened to Max Ramirez. Originally signed by the Braves out of Venezuela, Ramirez was shipped to the Indians in July of 2006 for “Proven Closer” Bob Wickman, then found himself switching zip codes again the next summer when the Indians sent him to Texas for Kenny Lofton. Ramirez’s long-term position remains a mystery (catcher seems exceedingly unlikely, given his scouting reports and the presence of Taylor Teagarden in Texas), but Max should mash wherever he ends up. He terrorized the TL on his way to Arlington, posting a .292 ISO and leading the circuit in wOBA.

5. Aaron Cunningham, Athletics: .397 wOBA (.317/.386/.507)
Age: 22
Position: OF
2006-2008 Park Factor (Midland): R (1.02), H (1.02), 2B (1.04), HR (0.91)
PAL: .316/.385/.514
MLE: .249/.320/.384
BA Texas League Ranking: 11th overall (7th hitter)

Like Ramirez, Cunningham has also switched organizations twice before really getting acclimated to the big league level. The White Sox originally plucked the Everett Community College alum in the 6th round of the 2005 draft, but the Pale Hose made a rare prospect-for-prospect swap with the Diamondbacks in June of 2007, exchanging Cunningham for second baseman Danny Richar. Cunningham would again change uniforms in December of ’07, as he was part of a massive prospect haul acquired by the Athletics in the Dan Haren swap. Cunningham turned in a pretty solid season in the Texas League, posting a .190 ISO and drawing a free pass about 10% of the time. His strikeout rate did climb to 26.5%, however. The 5-11, 195 pounder does not look like a future star, but he should provide solid production for the A’s in a corner spot sometime in the near future.

Elvis Andrus is the 20-year-old phenom coming for Michael Young’s job. Last year, Andrus was a 19-year-old holding his own in AA. He hit .295 with 54 stolen bases. The rest of his game, though, was pretty incomplete. At the dish, Andrus only walked 7.3% of the time and showed very little pop (IsoP of only .073). With the glove Elvis did not fare much better. While he has shown extraordinary range, he has not proven to be very sure-handed. He had 32 errors in 109 games which is right in line with his career .944 fielding percentage.

So with these facts in mind, why is the Rangers front-office planning on moving the very expensive Young to 3B? It seems they are trying to make room for Andrus, but the question of whether or not he’s ready is a good one. I would expect that the Rangers will employ a stopgap option at SS while they wait to see how Andrus does in the minors this year. Asking Young to move was likely similar to what the Rays did last year with Iwamura and Longoria; they did not expect Longoria to come to the Bigs so early and planned on using a stopgap at third. If Andrus does come up next year, then what can we expect?

Looking at Andrus’s MLEs, you see a slash-line of .235/.292/.290/.582 for his performance last year. This is very unimpressive. His projections are not all that pretty either. The big-ticket issue with Andrus, though, is his steals and position eligibility. If you can get 30-40 steals from a cheap SS without him killing you in other categories, then you are in business. Another thing that makes him a little more attractive is his home ballpark: Arlington. If we can bump his rate-stats up some for that then he could be useful. These MLEs also go off of a BABIP of .289. It would not be surprising to see him with a BABIP much higher considering his speed and line-drive hitting ability.

All in all, Elvis Andrus probably isn’t someone you want to draft unless you play in a pretty deep league. The best idea (and what I plan on doing) may be to keep a close eye on his minor-league box scores, the newspapers in TX, and whatever the SS for the big-squad is doing. Be poised and ready to make a waiver-request because a .290/.330/.320 line at SS with a lot of steals may just be sitting there at the All-Star Break. A less-enthusiastic projection could even see him as the SS version of Willy Taveras.

After uncovering some of the better young batsmen in the Florida State League and the Carolina League, let’s now shine the spotlight on the California League. While some of the numbers that you’ll see on this list will look downright wacky, it is important to keep in mind that the California League is the domain of offensive explosions. In particular, High Desert (Mariners) and Lancaster (Red Sox) are known for giving pitchers nightmares. With that said, let’s take a look at the top 5 in the California League, starting off with an astute trade pickup.

(note: 2008 league offensive levels are found courtesy of First Inning. Keep in mind that the league offensive levels are only from one season’s worth of data. Park factors are from 2006-2008 data compiled from Minor League Splits, posted on the Baseball Think Factory site. A park factor of 1.00 is exactly neutral. Anything above 1.00 favors hitters, while anything below 1.00 favors pitchers).

California League

Singles (1.13), Doubles (1.04), Triples (1.01), Home Runs (1.04)

1. Carlos Santana, Indians: .429 wOBA
Age: 22
Position: C
Baseball America California League Ranking: 2nd overall (1st hitter)
2006-2008 Park Factor (Inland Empire): Runs (0.93), Singles (0.98), Doubles (0.96), Home Runs (0.79)

Over the past several years, perhaps no organization in the game has done a better job of swapping veteran role players for under-the-radar prospects than the Cleveland Indians. Be it shipping off Eduardo Perez for Asdrubal Cabrera and Ben Broussard for Shin-Soo Choo (thanks, Mr. Bavasi) or acquiring a prime talent like Santana from the Dodgers last summer for 36 year-old Casey Blake, the Tribe keep displaying a knack for uncovering hidden gems. The switch-hitting Santana may be the club’s best get yet: the converted outfielder put together a monster season for Inland Empire (LA’s affiliate) before the trade, batting a robust .323/.431/.563 with nearly even strikeout and walk ratios (16.5 BB%, 16.9 K%). The Dominican Republic native kept up his torrid pace upon transitioning to Cleveland’s Carolina League affiliate (Kinston), where he posted a .466 wOBA in 126 PA (Santana did not have the requisite 200 PA to qualify for the Carolina League list). As one might expect from a guy with so little experience behind the dish, Santana is still learning the nuances of the catching position. However, Baseball America notes that Santana possesses “good agility and athleticism”, and few doubt his ability to stick behind the plate.

2. Lars Anderson, Red Sox: .408 wOBA
Age: 21 (20 during ’08 season)
Position: 1B
BA California League Ranking: 3rd overall (2nd hitter)
2006-2008 Park Factor (Lancaster): R (1.14), H (1.08), 2B (1.04), HR (1.21)

As a lefty-swinging first baseman with good plate discipline, Anderson seems to have a good bit in common with the FSL’s top batting prospect, Logan Morrison. Boston coaxed Anderson to sign on the dotted line for $825,000 as an 18th-round selection in the 2006 draft, and the California native has impressed ever since. Sure, he did play in an absolute bandbox (for the aptly-named Jet Hawks), but it’s still pretty rare to find a 20 year-old with such a refined approach at the plate: Anderson drew walks at a 13.1% clip. Even better, Lars upped his wOBA to .430 and improved his ISO from .196 to .211 upon moving up to Portland of the AA Eastern League.

3. Pablo Sandoval, Giants: .437 wOBA
Age: 22 (21 during ’08 season)
Position: C? 3B? 1B?
BA California League Ranking: 7th overall (3rd hitter)
2006-2008 Park Factor (San Jose): R (0.89), H (0.94), 2B (0.97), HR (0.87)

The switch-hitting, ambidextrous Sandoval ripped through the California League on his way to San Francisco, batting .359/.412/.597 in 301 PA. While a .387 BABIP surely aided Sandoval, he did display an interesting blend of contact ability (14.3 K%) and power, posting a .238 ISO. He continued his hot hitting and hacking in AA and in the big leagues, but he still needs quite a bit of work in terms of working the count: in 154 PA for the Giants, Sandoval swung at a mind-bending 53.8% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone. The 5-11, 245 pounder has experience behind the plate and at the infield corners, but it remains to be seen just where he ultimately settles in. He’s potentially very interesting if he can stick behind the plate, though FSU star and 2008 first-rounder Buster Posey seems to be San Francisco’s heir apparent behind the dish.

4. Carlos Triunfel, Mariners: .338 wOBA
Age: 19 (18 during ’08 season)
Position: SS (likely 3B later)
BA California League Ranking: 15th (9th hitter)
2006-2008 Park Factor (High Desert): R (1.13), H (1.05), 2B (1.03), HR (1.23)

Wait a minute, a .338 wOBA? In a great hitter’s park? What’s he doing on this list? Admittedly, this selection might be a slight reach, but color me impressed that a player like Triunfel can hold his head above water in High-A ball at an age where most Americans are still in high school. There’s nothing eye-popping about his numbers, but how many Aflac All-Americans or Area Code Games stars could you stick in advanced A-ball and get a .287/.336/.406 line from? Triunfel will likely have to move off of shortstop down the line, and his rocket arm fits in just fine at third base. It’s far too early to suggest just what sort of player the Dominican Republic native will become, but he’s certainly worth keeping an eye on. Triunfel is an example of why context is so important with regards to minor league stats: plenty of guys have better raw numbers, but most of them are three or four years older and have had far more developmental time to hone their skills.

5. Josh Reddick, Red Sox: .422 wOBA
Age: 22 (21 during ’08 season)
Position: RF
BA California League Ranking: 8th overall (4th hitter)
2006-2008 Park Factor (Lancaster): R (1.14), H (1.08), 2B (1.04), HR (1.21)

Reddick also had the good fortune of playing his home games in Lancaster’s wind-aided environs, but he did post a .343/.375/.593 line with a .250 ISO. Taken one round before Lars Anderson in the ’06 draft, Reddick has some juice in his left-handed swing, but he’s going to have to do a better job of working the count as he moves up the organizational ladder: he drew a walk just 5.2% of the time at Lancaster. There’s some hope on that front, though, as Reddick upped that figure to 9.3% upon reaching AA Portland.

After taking a gander at the best and brightest hitters that the pitcher-friendly Florida State League had to offer, let’s now shift our focus to the Carolina League. If you missed part one, I would suggest taking a look at the method used and the reasoning behind it. What we’re trying to do here is to see whose performance was the most impressive once important factors such as age, position and league and park offensive levels are accounted for. I should also note that I am using 200 PA as a cut-off for consideration- I used only qualified batters for the FSL, but I feel that might not have done justice to guys like Daryl Jones (Cardinals), Adrian Cardenas (Athletics, formerly Phillies) and J.P. Arencibia (Blue Jays), who missed the cut.

(note: 2008 league offensive levels are found courtesy of First Inning. Keep in mind that the league offensive levels are only from one season’s worth of data. Park factors are from 2006-2008 data compiled from Minor League Splits, posted on the Baseball Think Factory site. A park factor of 1.00 is exactly neutral. Anything above 1.00 favors hitters, while anything below 1.00 favors pitchers).

Carolina League

2008 league offensive levels: Singles (0.83), Doubles (1.08), Triples (0.99), Home Runs (1.01)

1. Matt Wieters, Orioles: .445 wOBA
Age: 22
Position: C
2006-2008 Park Factor (Frederick): Runs (1.05), Hits (1.02), Doubles (0.97), Home Runs (1.28)

Like there was any doubt about this one. Frederick is a great power park, but Wieters’ performance was head-and-shoulders above everyone else. He switch-hits. He draws a ton of walks (16.1 BB%). He can drive the ball as far as anyone (.231 ISO). Wieters’ performance actually improved significantly upon a promotion to Double A. Think about that: his .345/.448/.576 line at Frederick was his weaker showing in 2008. He even comes with a pretty solid defensive reputation, despite being a pretty large human being (6-4, 230 pounds). Earlier this offseason, Peter Bendix wondered if Wieters might be Joe Mauer with more power. This Pirates fan is going to go cry himself to sleep, haunted by memories of Daniel Moskos.

2. Tyler Flowers, White Sox: .412 wOBA
Age: 23 in January
Position: C
2006-2008 Park Factor (Myrtle Beach): R (0.98), H (1.00), 2B (0.94), HR (0.98)

Flowers enjoyed an outstanding campaign at Myrtle Beach in the Braves organization in 2008, but he was shipped to the south side of Chicago as the principal prospect acquired by the White Sox in the Javier Vazquez trade. A mountain of a man at 6-4, 245 pounds, Flowers has a discerning eye at the plate. A 33rd-round draft-and-follow selection in the 2005 draft, Flowers has a career .400 OBP and he drew walks at a Bondsian 19.2% clip in 2008. The Chipola Junior College product complements that judicious approach with plenty of raw power (.206 ISO). While Flowers whiffs a bit more than one would like (24.7 K%), there’s little reason to doubt his offensive profile. The reviews of his work behind the dish are a bit more sketchy, however.

Flowers would be one of the largest catchers ever- using Baseball Reference’s Play Index Tool, I found that that Pete Varney (himself a White Sox backstop) and Ronny Paulino are the only players at least 6-3 and 235 pounds (an inch and 10 pounds lighter than Flowers) to have seasons in which they played at least 50% of their games at catcher. That’s not to say Flowers couldn’t (Wieters is similarly huge, though he comes with a better defensive rep), but there’s not much precedent for it. If Flowers can continue to don the tools if ignorance, he would be an immensely valuable player for the Pale Hose. If not, his bat will still certainly play at first base or DH. He just wouldn’t be quite as interesting.

3. Nicholas Weglarz, Indians: .377 wOBA
Age: 21 (20 during ’08 season)
Position OF (1B also possible)
2006-2008 Park Factor (Kinston): R (0.99), H (0.97), 2B (0.95), HR (1.08)

This big Canadian southpaw showcased a very mature approach at the plate for a guy who played the entire season at age 20. Drawing free passes at a 15.9% clip, Weglarz posted a .396 OBP. While the 3rd-round selection in the 2005 draft has yet to really tap into his power game (his career SLG% is .448), his 6-3, 215 pound frame portends to more pop, and Baseball America notes that Weglarz “generates excellent loft, bat speed and leverage with his swing and shows plus-plus power potential.” Weglarz is no great shakes in the outfield, and might eventually have to shift to first base, but his bat should play there (Cleveland could have quite the log jam at the position, with Beau Mills, Matt LaPorta and Wes Hodges all possible first base candidates as well). The Ontario native also made some major strides in making more contact: after striking out nearly 30% of the time in 2007, he pared that figure down to 20.8% in 2008.

4. Brandon Allen, White Sox: .402 wOBA
Age: 23 in January
Position: 1B
2006-2008 Park Factor (Winston Salem): R (1.05), H (1.03), 2B (1.06), HR (1.06)

We fall down the defensive spectrum pretty quickly in the Carolina League, shifting from two catchers to a defensively-challenged outfielder, and now a first baseman. Allen’s career had been a mixed big prior to 2008, as the lefty-hitting Texas native showcased power but little plate discipline. That began to change this season: the 6-2, 235 pounder still pummeled the ball (.248 ISO), but he coupled that force with more restraint, as his walk rate rose to 11.4%. Allen continued to impress upon a promotion to AA, posting a .425 wOBA. He has some contact issues (26 K%) and he’ll have to continue to mash to be of high value, but Allen looks like the heir apparent to Paul Konerko in Chicago.

5. Beau Mills, Indians: .388 wOBA
Age: 22 (21 during ’08 season)
Position: 1B
2006-2008 Park Factor (Kinston): R (0.99), H (0.97), 2B (0.95), HR (1.08)

Son of Red Sox bench coach Brad Mills, Beau was selected 13th overall in the 2007 draft out of Lewis Clark State. He began his collegiate career at Fresno State, but transferred after having a falling out with the school. Mills had a mild debut in 2007, but he pieced together a pretty solid campaign at Kinston in 2008, batting .293/.373/.506. He began his career as a third baseman, but his below-average range and lateral agility necessitated a move across the diamond to first base.