Gio Gonzalez has no doubt seen his fair share of U-Haul trucks. The former supplemental-first-round selection out of a Miami high school during the 2004 draft has played for the White Sox, Phillies, White Sox again, and the Athletics organizations. He has been traded for Major Leaguers, including designated hitter Jim Thome, starting pitcher Freddy Garcia, and outfielder Nick Swisher.

The constant moving for Gonzalez has not been due to a lack of talent; he’s been a popular commodity because he’s young, left-handed and has put up some solid minor league career numbers, including 476 hits allowed in 582.2 career minor league innings.

Gonzalez has missed his fair share of bats in the past three seasons (two years at Double-A, one at Triple-A), and has struck out more than nine batters per nine innings. At Triple-A in 2008, Gonzalez allowed 106 hits in 123 innings and posted rates of 4.46 BB/9 and 9.37 K/9. He obviously needs to shave down the walk rate, especially after his MLB debut late last year that saw him walk 25 batters in 34 innings (6.62 BB/9). After allowing just 12 home runs in Triple-A, Gonzalez was lit up for nine (2.38 HR/9) in the Majors.

Yes, the southpaw had a rough introduction to the Majors, but his minor league numbers suggest he should be just about ready to secure a No. 4 or 5 spot in a Major League rotation in 2009. His command/control are the biggest question marks at this point, as the 23-year-old hurler learned the hard way. Major League hitters swung at just 18.2% of his pitches outside the strike zone, a tiny percentage even in a small sample size.

Gonzalez’ fastball averaged around 89 mph in the Majors, and he also showcased a curveball and a change-up. His biggest competitions for pitching time in 2009 include fellow top prospects Brett Anderson, Vince Mazzaro, and Trevor Cahill, whom I wrote about recently.

Florida loves its rookies. Cameron Maybin has been a top prospect since high school and he was taken by the Detroit Tigers with the 10th overall pick of the 2005 draft. Maybin was also the key trading chip (along with pitcher Andrew Miller) that sent Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis to Detroit prior to the 2008 season.

After spending the majority of the 2008 season in Double-A, Maybin is poised to enter 2009 as the Marlins’ starting center-fielder. The athletic, right-handed hitter batted .500 (16-for-32) in a brief MLB trial in late 2008 with the Marlins. He stolen four bases in eight games, but also whiffed eight times. Maybin could be one of those players, not unlike Florida shortstop Hanley Ramirez, that rises to the occasion, basks in the spotlight, and posts better numbers in the Majors than he did in the minors.

Last season in Double-A, Maybin hit .277/.375/.456 with 13 homes and 21 stolen bases in 390 at-bats. He also posted a respectable walk rate of 13.3 BB%, but a high strikeout rate of 31.8 K%, which could very well hurt his batting average early in his career if it does not improve.

Maybin can impact a game in a number of different ways. He has raw power and should be good for 15-20 homers in his prime. Maybin also has the speed to steal 30-40 bases in a season. Defensively, he has game-changing range and instincts, while also possessing a strong arm. Once he learns to hit breaking balls better, he could improve upon his .297 career minor league batting average. Maybin struggled with runners on base in 2008 and hit just .232 in those situations.

Maybin’s biggest competition for a starting role in 2009 is himself. He has to keep things simple and trust his natural ability; only a terrible spring will keep him off the opening-day roster. Other outfielders on the 40-man roster that can play center include Cody Ross (ticketed for left field), Alfredo Amezaga (a solid utility player), and Brett Carroll (fringe MLB starter). For fantasy purposes, Maybin could be a solid sleeper but don’t spend a high pick on him. He should hit about .270/.345/.390 with 10 homers and 20 stolen bases in his first season in Florida.

Earlier this week, we discussed the case for and against veteran starters Freddy Garcia, Tim Redding and Livan Hernandez attaining the Mets’ fifth starter gig. Now, let’s take a quick look at the two prospects vying for the spot. Though Jonathon Niese and Robert Parnell face long odds of cracking the rotation out of the gate, each could play a role in Queens at some point this season.

The 22 year-old Niese was featured on this site in November. Back then, I offered the following take on the southpaw’s game:

“Jonathon Niese will likely never be a front-of-the-rotation stalwart, but his combination of solid K rates and groundball tendencies makes him an interesting young arm. There’s always concern with a pitcher like Niese who generates those K’s with a big breaking ball and a tame fastball (89.4 MPH with the Mets): conventional wisdom says that while minor leaguers may not be able to lay off of that 74 MPH curve in the dirt, major league hitters will show more restraint and be less apt to chase. With the high-80’s heat, the big-breaking curveball and so-so control, Niese seems to have a Barry Zito starter kit at his disposal, with better ability to induce groundballs.”

The Defiance, Ohio native does not come equipped with electric stuff, so I think there is some concern that the impressive whiff rates in the minors (8.27 K/9) might not translate quite as well to the big leagues. Long term, Niese’s big hook and groundball tendencies should make him a solid back-of the-rotation starter. It seems likely that the 6-4, 215 pounder will head back to AAA to begin the year. CHONE Projects a 4.85 FIP for Niese, with 6.93 K/9 and 4.21 BB/9.

Parnell continues to rank well within an admittedly top-heavy Mets farm system, placing 5th on the club’s Baseball America prospect list. The Charleston Southern product fits the archetypal “power pitcher” mold: he’s 6-4, 200 pounds and can occasionally ramp his fastball up to the mid-90’s with a hard mid-80’s slider. However, Parnell has lacked consistency since being snatched up in the 9th round of the 2005 amateur draft.

The 24 year-old was extremely raw in college (according to BA, he posted ERA’s of 6.82 and 8.86 during his last two college seasons) and continues to both tantalize and frustrate: in 471 minor league frames, Parnell has punched out about 7.9 batters per nine innings while posting an above-average groundball rate, but he has also walked 3.9 hitters per nine and is coming off of a mildly disappointing 2008 campaign. In 127.1 innings at AA Binghamton, Parnell struck out 6.42/9 while issuing an abundance of free passes (4.02 BB/9). Promoted to AAA New Orleans, he whiffed 10.18 per nine in 20.1 innings, but continued to struggle with his control (3.98 BB/9).

A starter throughout his minor league career, Parnell made six relief appearances for the Mets last September. In that short stint, he showcased a 94 MPH heater with sink as well as an 86 MPH slider. Given Parnell’s occasional wildness and his problems maintaining velocity throughout his starts (BA had his fastball anywhere from 89-97), this power arm seems like a good bet to end up in the ‘pen.

The Toronto Blue Jays were stuck between a rock and a hard place in 2008. The Jays were an excellent run-prevention club last season, surrendering just 610 runs (by far the lowest total in the game: the Dodgers finished a distant second with 648 tallies allowed). Toronto’s stinginess in permitting runners to cross home plate was a combined effort: the starters posted the third-best FIP in the majors (3.79), the guys in the ‘pen placed fourth (3.85) and the Jays flashed the leather, ranking third in Defensive Efficiency (.704). Despite tallying 86 victories and posting 93 Pythagorean Wins, Toronto finished fourth in the brutally competitive AL East.

Suffice it to say, things will not get any easier in 2009. With the Rays, Red Sox and Yankees all poised to approach or surpass the 90-win mark again, the Jays stand little chance of competing. Last year’s strong rotation will be missing a few key pieces- A.J. Burnett defected to the Bombers, Shaun Marcum will miss the season following Tommy John surgery, and promising power pitcher Dustin McGowan is still in the process of recovering from shoulder surgery.

With the back of Toronto’s rotation unsettled, the opportunity exists for one of the more underappreciated youngsters in the minors to make his mark. Brett Cecil might just be the best pitching prospect that few have heard of.

Plucked out of Maryland in the supplemental first round of the 2007 amateur draft, Cecil was a top closer for the Terrapins in college. However, the Jays noted the lefty’s promising four-pitch mix (low-90’s fastball, plus slider, curve, changeup) and sturdy frame (6-3, 220 pounds) and envisioned a future starter.

Cecil’s transition into the rotation has gone exceedingly well. Sent to Auburn (New York-Penn League) to start his professional career, Cecil mowed down less experienced players. In 47 innings, he whiffed 56 batters (10.15 K/9) while filling up the strike zone as well (1.99 K/9). His heavy fastball made many a hitter put the ball on the ground, as Cecil posted a 57.9 GB%. The Terp’s 5.09 K/BB ratio and 2.05 FIP impressed Baseball America, as the publication named Cecil Toronto’s second-best farm product (behind Travis Snider). BA predicted that “his frontline stuff and bulldog demeanor” would allow Cecil to become “at least a number 3 starter.”

The power southpaw began the 2008 campaign at High-A Dunedin, but his stay there would be short. After punching out 11 in 10.1 innings, Cecil was promoted to AA New Hampshire. In 77.2 innings with the Fisher Cats, he continued to miss a ton of bats (10.08 K/9), limit the walks (2.67 BB/9) and burn many a worm (59.2 GB%). Cecil’s FIP in the Eastern League was a sparkling 2.71. Continuing his rapid ascent, Cecil reached AAA Syracuse last in the season. He issued a few too many free passes (4.7 BB/9) in 30.2 innings of work, but continued to fool hitters and keep his fielders on their toes (9.1 K/9, 67.4 GB%). BA Ranked Cecil 3rd in the Jays’ system following the season.

Brett Cecil might not make the Blue Jays straight out of spring training, but there’s a lot to like here. The big lefty has a track record of punching out a plethora of batters, has solid control and also possesses strong groundball tendencies. High K and groundball rates- that’s a recipe for success in the major leagues. He might just be ready to the jump to the highest level, too. Cecil’s translated FIP (per Minor League Splits) was 3.94 in 2008, and Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA system pegs the 22 year-old for a tasty 3.54 ERA, 83 K’s and 34 BB’s in 90 innings in 2009. The groundball-centric hurler would also be flanked by plus defenders, as Toronto’s defensive alignment essentially returns intact.

Cecil might not come with the notoriety of a David Price or a Tommy Hanson, but he’s an intriguing arm in his own right. If you’re looking for a rookie starter who could hit the ground running, then Cecil is your man.

The Baltimore Orioles have multiple reasons to thank the Seattle Mariners, and right-hander Chris Tillman is one of the top gifts that the club received in the Erik Bedard trade prior to the 2008 season. Tillman’s minor league numbers were nothing special prior to the 2008 season, but he was a second-round pick out of a California high school in the 2006 draft.

Tillman posted a 5.26 ERA in High-A ball for the Mariners in 2007, but his FIP was significantly better at 4.43. He allowed 107 hits in 102.2 innings with rates of 4.21 BB/9 and 9.20 K/9. The right-hander jumped to Double-A for the 2008 season with the Orioles and Tillman allowed just 115 hits in 135.2 innings. He also posted rates of 4.31 BB/9 and 10.22 K/9.

Once Tillman’s control improves, he could be absolutely dominating with a low-to-mid-90s fastball and a curveball with plus potential. The change-up is still developing. Tillman performed well against both right-handed and left-handed hitters in 2008, although he allowed a HR/9 rate of 0.93 against RH batters, as opposed to 0.29 HR/9 against LH batters.

Tillman has a couple of fellow pitching prospects who will serve as competition for starting roles, including right-hander Jake Arrieta and southpaw Brian Matusz, the club’s top pick in 2008. The good news is that there are not many – if any – pitchers currently in the big club’s starting rotation that are secure in their roles (expect perhaps Jeremy Guthrie). Radhames Liz and David Hernandez are two other pitchers to keep in mind for rotation spots as well, and Liz already had a taste of the Majors.

If all goes well for the Orioles (But when does it with young pitching?), all five pitchers could be in the club’s MLB starting rotation by the end of 2010, and Tillman should be near the top of the list. As for this season, keep an eye on Tillman in the spring to see where he falls on the depth chart for a possible mid-season call-up. If he does hit the Majors this season, he could struggle a bit because of his control issues and inexperience. Expect about six wins, 100 innings pitched and 110 hits allowed, as well as rates of 4.50 BB/9 and 7.25 K/9.

Toronto Blue Jays manager Cito Gaston recently stated that rookie phenom Travis Snider, only 21, would have to play himself off the team this spring. The left-handed outfielder rocketed through the system last year, playing at four levels (including the Majors) despite beginning the year stuck at DH with a wonky elbow.

The 14th overall pick of the 2006 draft out of a Washington state high school has a career minor league line of .299/.375/.513 in 1,138 at-bats. Last season, he spent the majority of the season in Double-A and struggled with his batting average and strikeouts. However, his elbow was reportedly the cause of the early problems; Snider hit .125/.288/.125 with 18 strikeouts in his first 32 at-bats at that level. He ended his stint in Double-A at .262 and then hit .344 in an 18-game stay in Triple-A.

Snider was called up to the Majors to finish the season and more than held his own as a 20 year old. He hit .301/.338/.466 with a .164 ISO in 73 at-bats. He also posted rates of 6.4 BB% and 31.5 K%. His walk rates have been better in the minors, so that should improve before too long. Snider’s strikeout rate, though, will likely be high until he acclimatizes to the Majors and matures a bit as a hitter. As a result, don’t expect him to hit for a high average any time soon. That said, he has a swing that could eventually produce a few .290-.310 seasons. He also has 35-homer power.

Defensively, Snider has the arm to play right field, but the range for left. That should not be an issue with two of the better defensive outfielders in the American League in center field (Vernon Wells) and right field (Alex Rios). Adam Lind, 25, could also spend some time in left when he is not in the designated-hitter role. Unfortunately, both promising youngsters swing from the left side so a platoon is not in order. Snider has more power than Lind, but the U of South Alabama alum is more likely to flirt with a .300 average at this point.

Snider should be in the top five when it comes to considering prospects to draft for your keeper leagues, and he could have an immediate impact in all fantasy leagues while competing for the Rookie of the Year award in the American League. The only thing that could prevent him from hitting 20 homers in his first full Major League season is an injury.

Right-hander Ryan Perry was selected 21st overall in the 2008 draft and he already has people talking. According to a story at MLB.com, the club has been really impressed with him so far this spring. There are even whispers that he could break camp with the big club.

Don’t get too excited, though. Sure he can hit triple digits from time-to-time, but Perry’s control/command is lacking and he does not have a lot of pitching experience, having entered his collegiate career as an infielder. He also struggled with injuries in college, which cut into his pitching experience and his numbers were not impressive at all prior to his draft year. He had a 2.89 ERA at the University of Arizona in 2008, but his ERAs were 7.34 and 6.35 in his first two seasons. Perry, 22, also allowed 102 hits in 68.1 innings.

That’s not to say Perry didn’t deserve to be a first-round pick, or will not be an impact Major League player, but to expect him to have a major (positive) impact in 2009 is asking a bit too much. In 12 High-A games in 2008 – the highest level he’s pitched at, Perry posted a 3.86 ERA but allowed 15 hits in 11.2 innings. He also walked seven (and struck out 12). Keep in mind he hasn’t even faced live, opposing hitters in spring training.

The Tigers added veteran Brandon Lyon to the bullpen via free agency, and he should add much-needed stability, especially with Joel Zumaya’s ongoing injury woes. The other bullpen options: Freddy Dolsi, Zach Miner, and Fernando Rodney are far from sure things.

Unfortunately, Perry may be needed, whether he’s ready or not.

The Oakland Athletics organization is loaded with pitching talent in the upper two levels of the minor league system. Trevor Cahill may be further away than the likes of Brett Anderson and Gio Gonzalez, but he arguably has a higher ceiling. The right-hander was originally selected out of high school by the Athletics in the second round of the 2006 draft and he has moved quickly for a prep pitcher, especially in an organization that is thought to favor college players.

In three seasons, the soon-to-be-20-year-old hurler has missed a lot of bats, having allowed just 163 hits in 238.2 cumulative innings. Last season, he allowed 52 hits in 87.1 High-A innings before moving up to Double-A for seven appearances. In those games, Cahill allowed 24 hits in 37 innings and posted rates of 4.62 BB/9 and 8.03 K/9 (which was the first time his strikeout rate was below 10.00 K/9). He obviously still has work to do on his control. Cahill possesses an 88-93 mph fastball, as well as a plus curveball and improving change-up.

There should be plenty of opportunities for young starting pitchers to appear in Oakland this season. Top pitcher Justin Duchscherer is just one year removed from pitching out of the bullpen and he is injury prone. Other starters who should have an inside track on a job include the inconsistent Dana Eveland, the unproven Sean Gallagher, and the aforementioned Gonzalez. Josh Outman, acquired from Philly in the Joe Blanton deal last season, could figure into the rotation or bullpen. Interestingly, Cahill is the only homegrown talent, which is odd for a club that has a reputation build on its draft history.

After being quiet on the 2008-09 free agent market, the club will have to find a replacement for Greg Smith’s 190.1 innings. The left-hander was used to help acquire star outfielder Matt Holliday from the Rockies earlier in the off-season. Blanton and Rich Harden also combined to provide 204 innings before their trades out of town. It will likely take at least three young pitchers to help make up for those almost 400 innings and Cahill should certainly be in line for a good portion of those if he gets off to a good start in the minors this season.

Even if he does appear for 100 innings or so in the Majors this season, Cahill will probably not be a huge factor in fantasy baseball. He is someone to consider for keeper leagues, however, with the ceiling of a No. 2 starter.

Leading up to the beginning of the 2009 season, Rotographs will look at the top 30 prospects (in no particular order) who enter the season having the best chances to make an impact at the Major League level this year.

The Seattle Mariners enter spring training with a wide-open situation in the bullpen. The M’s will no longer give the ball to J.J. Putz in the ninth inning, as the soon-to-be 32 year-old was shipped to the Mets in a twelve-player package. Also headed to Queens in that swap was groundball specialist Sean Green. After two years of, well, putsing around in the ‘pen, 2006 first-rounder Brandon Morrow will be moved to the rotation on a full-time basis. So, who’s left in that Seattle bullpen? Let’s take a look.

The top returning reliever, per WPA, is righty Roy Corcoran. The smallish 28 year-old turned in a 3.81 FIP and kept his infielders very busy (69.5 GB%), but there’s some question about the repeatability of his work. The former Expo/Nat struck out about as many batters (4.83 K/9) as he walked (4.46 BB/9) and his career minor league walk rate (4.14 BB/9) is rather high as well. Low-K pitchers can be plenty successful by inducing grounders and limiting walks, but Corcoran doesn’t appear to have the control to make that equation work.

Mark Lowe, 28, is coming off of a season in which he posted a 4.42 FIP. He punched out 7.77 batters per nine innings, but his control often evaded him (4.81 BB/9). The 6-3, 200 pounder has long been on prospect lists due to his mid-90’s heat/mid-80’s slider combo, but injuries (shoulder impingement as well as microfracture surgery on his elbow in an effort to regenerate cartilage in the joint) have held him back. If you’re looking for a guy who fits the closer profile from a “stuff” standpoint, it’s probably Lowe.

Like Lowe, David Aardsma is a flame-throwing righty without sharp command. The 27 year-old’s mix of mid-90’s fastballs and hard sliders have yet to produce anything but angst for his employers, as Aardsma has skipped between the Giants, Cubs, White Sox and Red Sox, before ending up in Seattle for minor league southpaw Fabian Williamson. The 2003 first-rounder has fanned his fair share of hitters in the bigs (8.65 K/9), but an atrocious walk rate (5.6 BB/9) has kept him from being anything more than a replacement-level reliever, with a 4.90 FIP. One thing to watch: according to our pitch data, Aardsma started using an upper-80’s splitter (thrown 10.9% of the time) in addition to his fastball and slider. The chances of Aardsma finally delivering are long, but the M’s have some experience with a control-challenged reliever adding a splitter and subsequently taking off.

Tyler Walker, formerly of the Giants, might also be able to work his way into the mix. The 32 year-old posted a 4.24 FIP last season, with 8.27 K/9 and 3.54 BB/9. The 6-3, 275 pounder works in the low 90’s with his fastball, but has progressivley become more reliant on a low 80’s slider (thrown 30% in ’06, 31.4% in ’07 and 40.3% in ’08).

It’s also possible that some of the team’s rotation excess ends up in the ‘pen, particularly lefties Ryan Rowland-Smith and Ryan Feierabend. Rowland-Smith appeared in 47 games last season (12 starts), posting a 4.53 FIP. His fastball won’t overwhelm anyone (88.7 MPH), but he also mixes in a slider, curve and a changeup on a fairly regular basis. Similarly, Feierabend supplements modest heat (87.8 MPH) with three offspeed pitches, relying heavily upon a high-70’s changeup.

Another long-term name to keep in mind is Josh Fields. The former Georgia Bulldog closer was selected by the Braves in the ’07 amateur draft, but the club didn’t meet his bonus demands. After improving his stock during the 2008 season, Fields was nabbed by the M’s with the 20th overall pick and…didn’t sign, at least not right away. The Boras client recently came to terms, however, receiving a bonus nearing $2 million (as a college senior, Fields had up until next June’s draft to negotiate a contract). The 23 year-old righty fits the profile of a late-inning reliever better than any of the current options, as he comes equipped with mid-90’s gas and a hard curveball. The 6-0, 180 pounder is likely the heir apparent to Putz in the long run.

Leading up to the beginning of the 2009 season, Rotographs will be looking at the top 30 prospects (in no particular order) who enter the season having the best chances to make an impact at the Major League level this year.

The Florida Marlins organization is no stranger to relying on rookies. The club has a revolving door at just about every position, and that door starts swinging about the time a player enters his first or second year of arbitration eligibility. The first-base position is no different this season, with Gaby Sanchez as the favorite to replace the dearly-departed Mike Jacobs, who was traded this past off-season to Kansas City for reliever Leo Nunez.

Sanchez was a fourth-round selection by the Marlins out of the University of Miami in 2005. He was originally drafted as a catcher, but moved out to first base and has spent just 13 games at his former position. Sanchez has also played third base in the minors but had a .938 fielding percentage – and below average range – in 62 games at the hot corner at Double-A in 2008.

Offensively, Sanchez has had a solid minor league career and sports a career line of .305/.397/.487 in four minor league seasons. Aside from his 2008 MLB stint, he has not played above Double-A. In 2008 at that level, he hit .314/.404/.513 with an ISO of .199 in 478 at-bats. Sanchez also stole 17 bases (but was caught eight times) and posted solid rates: 12.6 BB% and 14.6 K%. In his MLB debut, he appeared in just five games and went 3-for-8 (.375) with two doubles and two strikeouts.

As mentioned earlier, Sanchez will be replacing Jacobs, who mashed 32 home runs last season and posted a line of .247/.299/.514 with 93 RBI in 477 at-bats. Jacobs’ ISO was .266 and he posted rates of 7.0 BB% and 24.9 K%. The Marlins (likely) new first baseman will not be able to compete in the home run or RBI departments, but he will provide a much better average, as well as some other secondary stats.

Among the projection systems at FanGraphs, the consensus seems to be that Sanchez, 25, will hit about .272/.346/.430 with 15 home runs or so. Personally, I would expect a higher average, perhaps around .285, along with 15-17 homers, 30-35 doubles, and 65-70 RBI depending on his line-up position. He should also be good for about 10 stolen bases, with is a nice little bonus for a first baseman.

Sanchez’ biggest competition for playing time appears to be former Angels’ prospect Dallas McPherson, who had an excellent Triple-A season in 2008 and hit 42 home runs in 448 at-bats, while playing in a very good hitter’s park. Non-roster invitee Jay Gibbons could also see time at first base, if he looks good this spring. Long-term, the first base job will likely belong to prospect Logan Morrison, 21, who will open 2009 in Double-A. Sanchez obviously has a fairly narrow window in which to establish himself, so keep that in mind in keeper leagues.