This season I am debuting a new feature that will hopefully catch on and also help fantasy baseball owners. The Prospect Watcher will breakdown one (or two) rookie player’s hitting performance. The format of the feature will likely evolve during the course of the season as I find out what works and doesn’t work. As well, if you have any suggestions just let me know by posting them here or by e-mailing me.

At-Bat 1:

Pitching Performance of Note: St. Louis Cardinals’ rookie Jason Motte, who earned the right to close games to begin the season with a dominating spring, blew his first save opportunity of the year, which ultimately resulted in a loss for the club. In one inning of work, Motte allowed four runs on four hits. The 4-2 game for St. Louis ended 6-4 for Pittsburgh. Freddy Sanchez, Eric Hinske and Jack Wilson all hit doubles off of Motte.

Atlanta Braves rookie Jordan Schafer got the 2009 MLB season going with a bang for his fellow rookies last night with a home run in his first Major League at-bat. One can only hope that the fireworks is a sign of good things to come from the 2009 rookie class.

Texas Rangers prospect Tommy Hunter has a good chance to see significant time in Arlington this season, even though he will begin 2009 in the minors, likely at Triple-A Oklahoma. The right-hander rocketed through the minors in 2008 after being selected in the supplemental first round of the 2007 amateur draft out of the University of Alabama.

The 22-year-old hurler threw just 17.2 innings in his pro debut in 2007 but then tossed more than 160 innings at three minor league levels in 2008. He added an additional 11 innings at the MLB level, where he was over-matched and allowed 23 hits (18.8 H/9) and 20 earned runs. In fact, Hunter was hittable at every level that he pitched, allowing 170 hits in 163.2 minor-league innings.

He did, though, show very good command with a 1.84 BB/9 rate. His strikeout rate was not as promising, as it was above 7.00 K/9 at High-A ball and in the Majors, but it was below 5.00 K/9 in Double-A and Triple-A. In total, his minor league strikeout rate was just 5.72 K/9, which is below average for a potential No. 3 starter. With experience, Hunter has room to improve his ‘K’ rate, as his repertoire includes an 89-94 mph fastball, plus curveball, slider and change-up.

Hunter will probably benefit the most if he can remain in Triple-A until at least June or July. Knowing the state of the Rangers’ pitching, though, he could very well be up by the end of April. The big league rotation currently includes Kevin Millwood, Vicente Padilla, Kris Benson, Brandon McCarthy, and Matt Harrison. If Hunter does appear in the Majors for a significant amount of time in 2009 then he could provide innings and maybe some wins (He also won’t hurt you in the walks department), but there will probably be a fair number of hits allowed, and possibly a low number of strikeouts. Hunter does not have the ceiling of Neftali Feliz or Derek Holland, but he’s probably more MLB ready and of more value to fantasy baseball managers in 2009.

In a bit of a surprising move, Jordan Schafer has been named the opening-day starter in center field for the Atlanta Braves. Now to be fair, this is not the same Atlanta Braves team that dominated during the ’90s and early 2000s. The much younger team is still struggling to find a new identity after a few years of disappointing results and has finished in either third or fourth place in each of the last three seasons. So it’s a great time to take a risk on some youth.

So, why is Schafer such a risk? Isn’t he one of the club’s top prospect? Well, yes he is one of the top young players in the organization, but Schafer also has spent just 84 regular season games above A-ball. He managed a batting average of just .269 in Double-A last year after missing 50 games thanks to an early-season suspension for the use of growth hormones. The talented player with modest home run results also struck out 89 times in 84 games last year (29.6 K%).

On the plus side, though, Schafer’s isolated power has increased each of the last three seasons and topped out at .202 last season, although he hit just 10 homers in 297 at-bats. He also showed the ability to produce 10-20 steals, after nabbing 12 in Double-A, and 19 the previous season (in 30 tries). Schafer is also an excellent defensive outfielder, who should save some runs with the glove.

One other word of caution about the youngster: The left-handed batter hit just .196/.306/.299 against southpaws in 2008 (.236 average lifetime), compared to .309/.416/.565 against right-handers. So that means he should probably be platooned – especially against the better left-handed pitchers. The bad news, though, is that the Atlanta roster is pretty much void of options, save perhaps for… Omar Infante? If Schafer has to play regularly against southpaws, it’s going to drag down his overall numbers and hurt fantasy owners.

If you have Schafer on your fantasy team entering the 2009 season, expect a .270 average, 10 homers and 15 stolen bases. It’s nothing to write home about, but it should be a solid base for a very good baseball career. In other words, at this point, he’s a better investment in keeper leagues.

Imagine being hired at an entry level position for a company. Then, imagine becoming CEO of that company six months later.

Okay, so the ultra-aggressive promotions of ’07 and ’08 bonus babies Rick Porcello and Ryan Perry aren’t quite at that level of expedition, but it’s close. Desperate to infuse the major league club with any talent capable of avoiding a Charlie Brown-like fate on the mound (or a Kenny Rogers-type fate, for that matter), Detroit has called upon its most recently sowed farm products.

Porcello, 20, created quite the buzz during the summer of 2007. A 6-5, 195 pounder with an unusually deep mix of pitches, Porcello committed to North Carolina and was considered an awfully difficult sign. The lanky right-hander was often billed as the best prep pitching prospect since Josh Beckett, and his scouting reports were positively glowing:

“He’s long, lean, athletic and projectable with a clean delivery. His fastball sits at 93-95, touching 98. He holds his velocity deep into outings. He throws a tight curveball at 74-76 and a harder, sharp-breaking slider at 80-82. He shows feel for his changeup. He can spot his fastball to both sides of the plate, and mixes his pitches effectively.” (Baseball America’s 2007 draft coverage)

The luxury price tag and strong Tar Heel ties caused 26 teams to pass on Porcello, but the Tigers stepped up and took the best available talent, price tag be damned. Detroit eventually signed him to a $7 million major league contract, including a nearly $3.6 million bonus.

Porcello made his debut at High-A Lakeland in the Florida State League in 2008. As a teenager, he posted rates of 5.18 K/9 and 2.38 BB/9, with a 3.83 FIP in 125 innings pitched. In most cases, one might be justifiably skeptical of a highly-touted hurler who misses so few bats. However, Porcello exhibited control far beyond his years while showing extreme worm-killing tendencies (64.1 GB%).

In addition, Baseball America noted in its prospect handbook that the Tigers had Porcello on a pitch count, allowing no more than 75 tosses per game. Porcello can touch the mid-to-high-90’s with his four-seam fastball and was known to rip off some nasty sliders in high school (Detroit scrapped the pitch, at least for now). But, he focused on efficiency in ’08, with a low-90’s sinker, a 12-to-6 curve and a plus changeup as his weapons of choice. BA compared Porcello’s overall package to that of Roy Halladay, the dean of controlled, groundballing productivity.

While Porcello easily ranked as Detroit’s top prospect, fireballing right-hander Ryan Perry ranks second on most lists. Popped out of Arizona with the 21st overall pick in the 2008 draft, Perry’s claim to fame is a searing, 97-100 MPH fastball that gets on hitters in a flash. Teaming with fellow ’08 first-rounder Daniel Schlereth (Diamondbacks), Perry short-circuited radar guns and supplemented the heat with an occasionally deadly high-80’s slider. He made a brief cameo last summer between rookie ball and Lakeland, posting a 16/7 K/BB in 13.2 innings.

Perry’s command is not always ideal, which BA claims kept him from developing into a consistent starter at Arizona. However, as a ‘pen arm, he could quickly claim a prominent role with the Tigers. Detroit’s bullpen is essentially a wasteland of decent middle men, an excommunicated starter (Nate Robertson) and reclamation projects (Juan Rincon is still pitching?). Brandon Lyon is a serviceable arm, but he’s a late-inning reliever in name only. Joel Zumaya is baseball’s equivalent of a busted Lamborghini. Fernando Rodney’s level of arson is matched only by former teammate-turned-ridiculously-priced Royal Kyle Farnsworth. Suffice it to say, there’s opportunity here.

It’s nearly impossible to say how quickly Detroit’s top two prospects will acclimate themselves to the major league level. After all, Porcello was getting ready for the prom this time two years ago, and Perry has all of 14 frames of pro pitching to his name. Will sending Porcello and Perry’s development clocks into turbo-drive pay off? Stay tuned.

Right-hander James McDonald earned a spot in the Los Angeles Dodgers’ 2009 starting rotation with a modest showing this spring. He allowed 21 hits in and eight walks in 19.2 innings of work. McDonald also struck out 13 batters. The club has good pitching depth and the rookie will slot in behind Chad Billingsley, Hiroki Kuroda, Randy Wolf and Clayton Kershaw.

Claudio Vargas dropped out of consideration for the No. 5 spot after allowing 25 hits in 15.1 innings. He also suffered an injury to his arm and will likely begin the year on the DL. Veteran Eric Milton, working his way back from Tommy John surgery, allowed 38 hits in 19.2 innings of work and will start the season in the minors.

McDonald has much more talent than his numbers would suggest. The 24-year-old hurler spent time in Double-A, Triple-A and the Majors in 2008. He spent the majority of the year in Double-A, where he allowed 98 hits in 118.2 innings. He posted rates of 3.49 BB/9 and 8.57 K/9. In six big league innings, McDonald allowed five hits and one walk, to go along with two strikeouts. He also pitched very well in the playoffs. McDonald’s biggest problem in his regular season debut was that he induced groundballs at a clip of just 15%. Thankfully, the Dodgers team plays in a spacious park.

He’s not overpowering, but the starter-turned-hitter-turned-starter-again has a solid repertoire, which includes a fastball that sits between 89-91 mph and can touch 94 mph. McDonald also has a plus curveball and a good change-up. His control is improving, as is his command.

The right-hander is not as flashy as 2008 rookie Kershaw, but McDonald should be a little more consistent at this point. He probably shouldn’t top 170 innings pitched in 2009, after throwing fewer than 150 innings last season (not including the playoffs). McDonald has a good shot at providing 10 wins for a solid LA club, as well as 120-130 strikeouts. Last season, the club got six wins and a 6.27 ERA out of its No. 5 starter (Brad Penny).

The transactions involving minor league prospects continue to fly across the wire. A number of players received good news: That they had earned starting jobs for opening day.

James McDonald won a starting gig in Los Angeles (NL). Scott Richmond won the fifth spot in the rotation in Toronto; veterans Wade Miller and Matt Clement will continue to follow the comeback trail from serious injuries by pitching in Triple-A. Rick Porcello, who has not pitched above High-A ball, will go every fifth day in Detroit, while former starter Nate Robertson has been banished to the bullpen. Robertson can hang out with 2008 first-round pick Ryan Perry, who made the team despite questionable control.

Rookies Brett Anderson and Trevor Cahill will make up two-fifths of the rotation in Oakland. In Atlanta, Jordan Schafer won the center field job, which caused the club to trade his competition – Josh Anderson – to the Tigers. Dexter Fowler received the go-ahead to patrol center field for Colorado on opening day. An injury to Joe Mauer has allowed Jose Morales to claim the back-up catcher’s role, beating out Drew Butera.

The Florida Marlins organization has been busy. Along with picking up veteran Ross Gload from Kansas City, the club traded infielder Robert Andino to Baltimore for left-handed prospect Hayden Penn. Both players were out of options and would have had to pass through waivers if they had been demoted.

The Marlins also surprisingly released Dallas McPherson, who hit 42 homers in Triple-A last season. Gaby Sanchez, the favorite entering spring to be the club’s first baseman, was demoted to the minors after struggling all spring. The club will move Jorge Cantu across the diamond and play speedy second baseman Emilio Bonifacio (who has zero power) at third base.

The New York Yankees demoted pitcher Alfredo Aceves, who was a surprise contributor in 2008. The club also sent down Dan Giese, who saw some time in the Majors last year. The division-rival Boston Red Sox announced that Chris Carter had won a roster spot as a bench player (It’s about time he got a chance).

The Colorado Rockies finally set first baseman Joe Koshansky free on waivers but he was picked up by Texas, a club that really doesn’t need a first baseman or designated hitter, although things could clear up a bit for him if, as expected, veteran Frank Catalanotto is let go.

Despite smoking the ball and hitting more than .400, Jesus Guzman was sent to the minors by San Francisco. Cleveland reliever Edward Mujica, out of options, was dealt to San Diego.

Prospects can really try your patience at times… especially if you draft a player based on his overall athletic ability and pray that he can translate that to the ball diamond. Such was the case with the Cincinnati Reds organization and Chris Dickerson, who was drafted out of the University of Nevada in the 16th round of the 2003 draft.

He showed signs of life in 2007 and fully emerged from his cocoon in 2008 when he hit .287/.384/.479 with 11 home runs and 26 stolen bases in 349 at-bats at Triple-A. Dickerson earned a promotion to the Majors and hit .304 with six homers and five steals in 102 at-bats. If his power is for real, he has the potential to be an above-average defensive outfielder who can hit 15 homers and steal 30 bases in 500 at-bats.

The knock on Dickerson, though, is that the left-handed hitter cannot hit southpaws. In his last four minor-league seasons, he hit .223/.328/.319 against left-handed pitching, compared to .272/.364/.464 against right-handers. In 2008, though, he improved to hit .258 against southpaws, which could allow him to play regularly in the Majors if he can keep that up. If not, he could be a solid platoon player.

Dickerson, 26, could form an impressive left-field platoon with powerful Tampa Bay cast-off Jonny Gomes (currently a non-roster player having a good spring with four homers and 12 RBI). For Dickerson, spring training has had its ups and downs. He’s hitting .300 but he’s also struck out 21 times in 23 games and he’s been caught stealing five times in 11 chances.

There are still rough edges to Dickerson’s game, but he has the potential to add a little excitement to a young roster that includes second-year players Jay Bruce, Joey Votto, Edinson Volquez, and Johnny Cueto. If he plays everyday, expect a healthy number of steals, some home runs, good defense and a ton of strikeouts.

Yesterday, we put the twice-traded Ross Ohlendorf under the microscope, noting that his low-90’s heat and slider are likely best suited for the bullpen. Today, let’s look at Pittsburgh’s other prospect named McCutchen: Daniel McCutchen.

Like Ohlendorf, McCutchen is a 26 year-old college product. The Yankees selected the Oklahoma Sooner in the 13th round of the 2006 amateur draft. That the 6-2, 195 pounder actually signed on the dotted line was something of a miracle: he was drafted three other times before he became a member of the Bronx Bombers.

Baseball America’s 2006 draft coverage noted that “scouts are becoming a bit jaded about righthander Daniel McCutchen, who turned down the Yankees as a 47th-round pick out of Grayson County (Texas) Community College in 2003, the Devil Rays as a 29th-rounder in 2004 and the Cardinals as a 12th-rounder in 2005.” Talk about playing hard-to-get.

McCutchen’s debut was further stalled by a 50-game suspension for a positive drug test from a prescription taken for attention deficit hyperactivity disorder while attending Oklahoma. He threw 29 innings in 2007, mostly in the South Atlantic League, with a 29/6 K/BB ratio. The righty just snuck on to BA’s top 30 list for the Yankees, placing 30th.

Finally donning a professional uni over a full season in 2007, McCutchen showed polish, if not power at High-A Tampa. In 101 innings pitched, he turned in a 3.52 FIP, with about 6 K’s per nine and 1.9 BB/9. Promoted to AA Trenton during the later portion of the year, he lowered his FIP to 3.03 in 41 frames of work. McCutchen Mcwhiffed 7.9 batters per nine innings while issuing 2.63 BB/9. BA took note of his stellar pitching, bumping McCutchen up to 14th on the Yankees’ prospect list.

BA noted that he could reach the low-90’s with his four-seam fastball, sat 89-91 with the two-seamer and backed the heaters up with a plus overhand curve and a decent changeup. However, they also said that “some in the organization want to channel his aggressiveness into the bullpen, believing his stuff will play up as was the case with Ross Ohlendorf.”

McCutchen trekked back to Trenton to kick off 2008, where he posted rates of 8.83 K/9, 3.06 BB/9 with a 3.29 FIP in 53 innings. Sent to AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre after easing through the Eastern League, he displayed impressive strikeout and walk ratios (7.42 K/9, 1.41 BB/9), but McCutchen was often bombed as a Red Baron, surrendering 1.28 homers per nine innings with a 3.91 FIP.

Sent to Pittsburgh as part of the swag for Nady and Marte, McCutchen was assigned to AAA Indianapolis for the remainder of the year. His K’s and walks were nearly identical with his new organization (7.69 K/9, 1.31 BB/9 in 48 IP). However, his gopher ball issue grew far worse, with an astounding 12 big-flys leaving the yard (2.25 HR/9) to bloat his FIP to 5.30.

As a strike-tosser with decent velocity and a good curve, Daniel McCutchen has his virtues. Still, the homer-happy tendencies and flyball orientation (career 41.6 GB% in the minors) give one pause. Most major league equivalents and 2009 projections feel that McCutchen will post an adequate K/BB ratio, but that he’ll also dish out dingers as if they were going out of style:

Minor League Splits 2008 MLE: 166 IP, 5.82 FIP, 6.41 K/9, 2.44 BB/9, 2.06 HR/9
CHONE 2009 Projection: 120 IP, 4.88 FIP 6.6 K/9, 2.85 BB/9, 1.50 HR/9
Zips ’09 Projection: 114.2 IP, 5.41 FIP, 5.42 K/9, 2.28 BB/9, 1.88 HR/9

Given the current state of affairs in Pittsburgh’s rotation, simply having most appendages and converting oxygen into CO2 gives you a puncher’s chance at seeing time in the Bucs’ starting five. McCutchen will likely get a shot sometime this summer. It’s possible that he becomes a Paul Byrd-type pitcher, able to paint the corners enough to post league-average production and overcome a tendency to cough up a few too many homers.

With incumbent second baseman Alexei Ramirez shifting to shortstop for 2009, the keystone will be home to rookie Chris Getz this season. The 25-year-old prospect will not offer as much power at the position as Ramirez did, but he still brings a lot to the table.

In 2008, Getz hit .302/.366/.448 with 11 homers and 11 stolen bases in 404 Triple-A at-bats. He also posted rates of 9.2 BB% and 13.1 K%. In 10 games with the White Sox, Getz hit .286. Originally selected out of the University of Michigan in the fourth round of the 2005 draft, the left-handed hitter put together a career minor league average of .286. This spring, he held off challenges for the position from Brent Lillibridge (acquired from Atlanta) and Jayson Nix (a former Colorado prospect). Getz has hit well with a line of .317/.388/.433 with six walks, six strikeouts and four stolen bases in 60 at-bats.

The White Sox system does not have a surefire second base prospect coming up behind Getz, so the job should be his for awhile, unless he struggles mightily. Long term, though, he projects as more of a utility player who can play all over the infield and even in the outfield.

Lillibridge could see time at second base as well this season. The White Sox club may also rely on him as a utility player who can fill in all over the field, including the outfield. He’s done OK this spring by hitting .275 but he’s walked just once in 69 at-bats. Lillibridge has also accumulated 23 strikeouts, so his approach does not really work with his skill set, which is based on speed.

Nix had a good shot at the second base job for Chicago, after opening 2008 as the Rockies’ starting second baseman. Unfortunately he hit just .125 in 22 games and was demoted to the minors. Nix signed on with White Sox as a free agent this past off-season and was hitting .462 in 13 at-bats before straining his quad. Once he comes of the DL, he’ll have to work his way back into the picture by playing well in Triple-A.

The transaction wire is going crazy now with Major League Baseball opening day less than a week away. Teams are busy sending down top prospects right now – some of the moves surprising, others… not so much.

Two top catchers received bus tickets to Triple-A this week. Baltimore’s superstar-in-the-making Matt Wieters will begin the year in the minors, which will help delay his arbitration eligibility for the ever-cost-conscious Orioles. He certainly did not hurt his case to begin the year in the Majors with a .333 average. Former Blue Jay Gregg Zaun should be the everyday catcher until Wieters returns, possibly in May. The back-up job will probably go to former Diamondback Robby Hammock.

Seattle demoted Jeff Clement to the minors, as well. The 25-year-old appeared in 66 games for the Mariners last season, so he’s technically no longer a rookie. He really doesn’t have anything left to prove in Triple-A, but the club signed veteran Kenji Johjima to a ridiculous extension so it’s stuck with him for now. The back-up catcher will likely be Rob Johnson, who is hitting .400 this spring and plays good defense. Veterans Ken Griffey, Russell Branyan, and Mike Sweeney are also stealing time from Clement at the designated hitter or first base positions.

Oakland demoted outfielder Aaron Cunningham, who was obtained from Arizona last season in the Dan Haren trade. Cunningham batted .295 with two homers but ultimately fell victim to the club’s impressive outfield depth. Pittsburgh sent its top outfield prospect to the minors. Andrew McCutchen will start his second straight year in Triple-A. He could not have hit much better with a line of .318/.423/.561 in 66 at-bats, but the organization appears to favor veteran Craig Monroe for the opening day roster.

San Francisco demoted John Bowker, who entered spring with a good shot at winning the first-base job. He was significantly out-played by Travis Ishikawa. In Cincinnati, right-handed starter Daryl Thompson will continue to polish his game in Triple-A. Phillies’ starting-pitcher prospect Carlos Carrasco was another victim of the roster crunch. Outfielder John Mayberry Jr., obtained from Texas in the off-season for fellow former first rounder Greg Golson, was also demoted by Philly.

Some prospects also received good news this week, as former sixth-overall draft pick Ricky Romero won the No. 4 spot in the Toronto Blue Jays rotation. He was not even being considered for the role two weeks ago. The fifth spot is now down to either Scott Richmond or Brad Mills.

Brett Gardner won the center field job in in New York and the Yankees are now actively shopping Melky Cabrera. Gardner should be a great source of steals for fantasy owners. He should also score a ton of runs if he stays at the top of the batting order. James McDonald has reportedly won a spot in the Los Angeles Dodgers rotation and could be a real sleeper in the National League Rookie of the Year race.