The Washington Nationals organization announced today that top 2009 draft picks Stephen Strasburg and Drew Storen will both begin the year in double-A. Strasburg is considered the future face of the organization (if he isn’t already) and a sure-fire No. 1 starter, while Storen is considered the club’s closer of the future.

So what does this news mean to fantasy baseball managers?

Most importantly, it means that you’re going to have to be patient. The former San Diego State hurler was the club’s most dominating starter this spring but it was a smart decision from a business perspective, as well as a player development angle. Why rush him? The club is not going to win in 2010… so it’s going to try to keep him around (and cost controlled) for as long as possible.

From a fan perspective, it means more pitching mediocrity for the Nationals rotation. The motley crew is likely to include Garrett Mock, John Lannan, Jason Marquis, Scott Olsen, and J.D. Martin. There are a couple of names there for deep NL-only leagues, but the pickings are slim in mixed leagues.

Strasburg is probably not going to be in the minors long, based on how he looked this spring (and in the Arizona Fall League). He’ll likely be up by June at the latest, which means you need to keep yourself in a favorable waiver situation in your league for when the inevitable call comes. Once he’s up, Strasburg could very well pitch at the level of a Top 15 starter. He could be the exact type of waiver wire player that helps push a fantasy team over the hump in the second half of the season. The one downside to keep in mind, though, is that he’s playing for the Nationals (and the club is likely to monitor his innings) so the wins could be hard to come by.

As for Storen, young closers are quite volatile. They tend to burn out quickly. I also have some concerns over the right-hander’s current lack control issues (three walks in five spring innings, 4.38 BB/9 in 10 double-A games in ’09) so he may not be a reliable closer option for another few seasons. In the meantime, fantasy managers in need of saves will want to keep an eye on Matt Capps and Brian Bruney in Washington. Capps is the early favorite for saves, but he’s struggled this spring. On a team that does not project to score a lot of runs, the eventual closer could have plenty of save opportunities when the club takes a lead into the ninth inning.

A bunch of people from FanGraphs are enjoying Spring Training here in Arizona this week. Thursday we took in the Brewers-Reds game and delighted fans in the right field seats with our special brand of knowledge. In a mostly uneventful game, the Reds brought in a pitcher to seal the deal in the ninth inning that caught us off guard. None of us had ever heard of Logan Ondrusek (although to be fair Marc Hulet was not at the game) and that, combined with the fact that he was put into a game in a save situation and closed the game, made him worthy of a post.

Ondrusek was a 13th-round pick of the Reds in 2005 from a community college in Texas. The first thing that strikes you is that he is tall. MiLB.com lists him at 6’8 but it would not surprise me if he was bigger than that.

After an extended stint as a starter in 2007, Ondrusek made just three starts in 2008 and has been in the bullpen ever since. He seemed to be nothing special until the 2009 season, in which he began the year in the Hi-A Florida State League and ended in Triple-A. Among his three stops, his highest ERA was 1.74 and for the year he had a 1.50 ERA in 72 innings.

The scouting reports show Ondrusek with a low-90s fastball, a changeup and a slider. He did not overpower batters and with borderline shaky command, he had uninspiring results. But in 2009 Ondrusek had a 2.6 BB/9 and he allowed just 1 HR, helping to explain his great leap forward.

With such a miniscule HR rate it is not surprising to see Ondrusek as a ground ball pitcher. Minorleaguesplits.com shows him with a 56.9/15.9/24.1 GB/LD/FB batted ball profile.

Last year Ondrusek worked his way into a closer role. He had zero saves in the FSL but had seven in Double-A and 12 in Triple-A. His big season earned him a trip to the Arizona Fall League, but he struggled in the hitting-friendly loop. Ondrusek allowed 22 hits in 10 innings and had a 13.50 ERA.

It seems unlikely that Ondrusek will be a closer in the majors, given that he does not have a big strikeout rate. But the rise he made last year certainly makes for a good story and the fact that the Reds gave him a chance to close in an early Spring Training game is interesting. Right now he is a name to store away and it would not be surprising if he made it to the majors at some point in the 2010 season.

I just got back from a trip and took advantage of my airport time to do some fantasy baseball studying. In the dark ages, this might have meant purchasing a fantasy magazine but fortunately there are much better options available today. And much to my delight, the mailman brought my copy of John Sickels’ The Baseball Prospect Book 2010 right before I left.

Now the internet has made following prospects much easier than when Sickels started doing his book back in the mid 1990s. Our own Marc Hulet does excellent work listing the top 10 prospects for each organization. But I still find value in this book and it is the one prospect source I go back to time and time again, both before and during the season as well as in hindsight to see both how prospects were rated and how the scouting reports from the minors compare to the actual results in the majors.

Sickels does a nice job of combining both statistical analysis along with scouting reports to determine his grades for prospects. And one advantage that he has over many other analysts is that he goes to a bunch of games – both in the minors and top college programs. A lot of guys can quote you a top prospect’s numbers in the high minors but Sickels can tell you the improvements he made since he saw him in college.

For example, Sickels writes about 2009 Angels supplemental first-round pick Garrett Richards:

“I saw him pitch one Big 12 game where he was throwing 94-96 MPH fastballs, a plus slider, and a big-breaking curveball … and he still got clobbered because he couldn’t command his pitches.”

Now Richards pitched well in his rookie ball debut last year and combined with his high draft status, many analysts would be extremely bullish on him. But Sickels uses his college scouting (and numbers) to offer just a bit more caution that most in regards to Richards. And there are countless examples of this throughout the book.

In addition to his own scouting, Sickels has built up a strong network of scouts that he can trade information with regarding players he is unable to see in person. But before you dismiss him as someone who just regurgitates whatever information scouts give him, Sickels is not afraid to go against this information if it conflicts with what he sees in the numbers or what his gut tells him.

On Jonathan Galvez, a Padres prospect from the Dominican Republic who got a big bonus a few years back, Sickels notes: “some scouts were disappointed in him, criticizing his defensive play, particularly his arm strength, and raising questions about his work ethic.” But despite that Sickels concluded: “I still think he’s a very intriguing prospect.”

And yes, someone who has been doing this as long and as successfully as Sickels has is allowed (and is preferred) to use his gut or his instinct when evaluating players, so long as he is upfront about it in his analysis. As Malcolm Gladwell has pointed out, experts have a way of recognizing patterns in subconscious ways and it is a mistake to ignore those completely.

Sickels was using numbers to grade prospects long before most others were doing it. He uses OPS, Secondary Average (both of which he compares to league averages) and BABIP as his main offensive numbers. On the pitching side he uses K/BB, K/IP and H/IP. This year he also incorporated some FIP numbers into his analysis

The book contains prospect reports on 1,170 minor league players and is arranged alphabetically. But there is also a section that lists every prospect by team, so if you are only interested in finding out the details about guys in certain systems, you can do that, too.

It is great for both fantasy purposes and following the game as a whole. Sickels both writes and self publishes the book, which you can order here.

Which prospect sources do you use the most and find most reliable?

With Aroldis Chapman inking with the Cincinnati Reds, both of baseball’s biggest pitching prospects have found homes for the 2010 season. Since both Stephen Strasburg and Chapman’s location is known, it makes it much easier to compare the two and evaluate when they should be drafted.

Chapman, a power throwing lefty from Cuba, is still raw. He will need to work on commanding all of his pitches, and no one knows just how long that will take. The Reds hope to fast-track him through the minors, but just what does that mean? Once again, not sure. My best guess is that we’ll see him in August and September, with only a 5% chance he’s up before the All-Star break (barring massive injuries to a huge amount of Reds’ pitchers). I’m really not all that impressed with or excited about Chapman, but many scouts are. Of course, who doesn’t love a lefty who throws hard?

Strasburg, the consensus number one pick of last year’s amateur draft, will likely be up sooner than Chapman. His powerful fastball (with good movement) is complimented by a sharp slider (some scouts say curve, but I see a slider) and changeup. Some scouts have said there may be some major arm injuries in his future, while others say his delivery is just fine. I’ve seen quite a bit of video, and I don’t see anything horribly wrong. He seems to open up a touch too early, but nothing that screams injury to me. I’d suggest he spends the first couple months in the minors, but it looks like the Nationals may let him run wild before that. I doubt he starts the season in the bigs, but he’s probably in the bigs a couple of weeks after he dominates in Double-A.

Both Strasburg and Chapman are going late in drafts (and not at all in a good chunk of drafts) according to MockDraftCentral. Chapman is currently the 70th pitcher off the board (284), with Strasburg as the 73rd pitcher off the board (301). Why is Chapman going so early? Strasburg is more polished and will be in the majors sooner, so I’d much rather have him. Guys like Francisco Liriano, Derek Lowe, Justin Duchscherer, and Brad Penny are going after the two young guns, and I’d rather have all of them. Strasburg is not a bad selection in the slot he is being drafted in, but Chapman is going far too high at this point. If you are in a keeper league, it’s not the worst pick in the world, but I think you should be able to get him later.

Oakland Athletics acquired 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff and 2B Eric Sogard from the San Diego Padres for OFs Scott Hairston and Aaron Cunningham.

Kouzmanoff’s arrival means that Eric Chavez and Jake Fox have little chance of seeing time at the hot corner. Of course, Chavez has scarcely played over the past two seasons while suffering through back, shoulder and elbow injuries, while Fox probably shouldn’t go anywhere near a glove. Dallas McPherson, who combines Chavez’s durability with Fox’s minor league feats of strength, also loses out here.

The 28 year-old Kouzmanoff is under team control for the next three seasons. He’s a decent defender at third, but what about his bat?

Kouzmanoff is extremely aggressive at the dish, having drawn a free pass in just 4.9 percent of his plate appearances in the majors. His outside swing percentage was 31.3 last season, and sits at 32.3% in the big leagues (25 percent MLB average).

The former Indians prospect puts a charge into the ball, however, with a career .174 Isolated Power. Kouzmanoff has been a slightly-above hitter, once the cavernous dimensions of Petco Park are taken into account. His wRC+ is 103.

Moving out of Petco certainly won’t hurt Kouzmanoff’s value. But keep in mind that the Oakland Coliseum does a number on offensive production as well. Courtesy of the 2010 Bill James Handbook, here are the three-year park factors for Petco and the Coliseum. A park factor of 100 is neutral, while anything below 100 favors pitchers.

Petco Park, 2007-2009

Runs: 76
2B: 75
3B: 93
HR: 73
RHB HR: 86

Oakland Coliseum, 2007-2009

Runs: 91
2B: 89
3B: 96
HR: 90
RHB HR: 77

CHONE projects Kouzmanoff to bat .259/.304/.431 next season.

Sogard, 23, spent 2009 at Double-A San Antonio in the Texas League. The lefty-swinging second baseman hit .293/.370/.400 in 530 plate appearances, controlling the strike zone (11.3 BB%, 10.3 K%) but displaying little thump (.107 ISO).

San Diego’s 2nd-round pick in the 2007 draft, Sogard has a career .292/.375/.417 line in the minors. His keen eye and quality defense give him a shot to be a regular, but the presence of Adrian Cardenas and Jemile Weeks in Oakland’s system means he’ll probably end up as a utility man.

Hairston, meanwhile, returns to San Diego after a sojourn with the A’s last summer. He was swapped to Oakland in July for RHPs Sean Gallagher, Craig Italiano and Ryan Webb.

The 29 year-old Hairston is cut from the same offensive cloth as Kouzmanoff: ample pop, but few free passes. He has a career walk rate of 6.8 percent, but also a .202 ISO. His wRC+ in the majors is 100. The former Diamondbacks prospect is often banged up, however, hitting the DL with a left shoulder injury in 2005, right biceps inflammation in 2006, an oblique strain in 2007, ligament surgery on his left hand in 2008 and a left biceps strain in 2009 (injury information from the Fantasy Pitch F/X DL Tool) CHONE forecasts a .254/.315/.448 triple-slash for Hairston in 2010. He’s under San Diego’s control through 2011.

Hairston rates as a quality defender in the outfield, and his arrival likely means that Chase Headley will transition back to third base.

Cunningham, 24 in April, has now been traded three times during his pro career. The Chicago White Sox took him in the 6th round of the 2005 draft, but shipped him to the Arizona Diamondbacks for Danny Richar in June of 2007. The D-Backs then included him in the Dan Haren deal in December of ’07.

He owns a career .309/.382/.493 line in the minor leagues. Cunningham doesn’t really excel in one particular area offensively. He possesses some power (.184 ISO), but doesn’t figure to be a massive extra-base threat in the majors. While not a total hacker, Cunningham has a mild 8.8 percent walk rate on the farm.

CHONE paints the picture of an average offensive player, as Cunningham’s 2010 projection is .263/.330/.420. His short-term role is clouded, with Kyle Blanks a 6-6, 285 pound science experiment in RF and Will Venable also figuring into San Diego’s outfield rotation. But he could work his way into more regular playing time if Hairston suffers another malady.

Hairston and Cunningham’s departures help clear Oakland’s outfield glut. Rajai Davis apparently has the left field job for the time being, but top prospect Michael Taylor figures to make his presence felt before the season is through.

John Ely spent his first three professional seasons in the White Sox organization after they made him a third round pick in 2007 out of Miami (Ohio). The righthander is now part of the Dodgers organization after they netted him him in a deal for Juan Pierre. Luckily for Ely his new big league team plays in one of the games better run suppressing environments and the Dodgers also spend a fair amount of time in pitchers heaven, Petco Park. ESPN’s 2009 park factors has Dodger stadium at 0.857 (1.000 is average) which was the third best run suppressing environment in baseball last year.

Ely will still likely require more seasoning in the minors before reaching LA but he’s one to keep an eye for people in keeper and regular fantasy leagues.

I saw Ely pitch multiple times in the Carolina League during the 2008 season. Below is the scouting report I had on Ely:

“Has some max effort mechanics. But they create very good deception and they make it tough to pick up the ball out of his hand. Fastball ranges from 90-92 MPH. It should end up being at least an average MLB pitch. He’s got a plus-plus change up. He relies heavily on the pitch and it’s his bread and butter. His breaking ball needs a lot of work. It’s definitely his third pitch right now. If the breaking ball improves I could see Ely becoming a back of the rotation/swingman type guy. Plus makeup as well.”

I also suggested that Ely might be suited for bull pen work:

“The change up falls off the table and accompanied with an average fastball (there’s room for more growth if he can blow it up for an inning or two in the pen) he could become a middle reliever type. He’s one to watch.”

First off, I completely neglected to mention Ely’s plus-plus command which has been a key part of his success. He’s been successful at every level he’s been assigned to in the minors and has established a knack for keeping the ball on the ground. Ely has had a 51% groundball rate during each of his minor league seasons (according to Firstinning.com). It also appears that I tended to see Ely on his better days with the reported 90-92 fastball velocity. Ely’s velocity is reported to vary and here’s a snippet about that velocity in Baseball America’s 2009 Prospect Handbook: “Ely’s best pitch is a plus-plus changeup, and he does a nice job of setting it up with an 88-94 mph fastball with good movement“.

That’s a pretty big spread on velocity and it makes me wonder if Ely knows when to add or subtract a little from his fastball in order to make his change up that much harder to pick up…

Ely was very impressive last season in Double-A for the White Sox. He had solid peripherals across the board including a 7.20 K/9 rate, 2.88 BB/9 rate, and a 0.52 HR/9 rate which added up to a 3.33 FIP (the super low HR/9 immensely help his FIP). Stat Corner’s version of tRA really liked Ely last year and his tRA was 3.75 in a league where the starting pitcher’s average tRA was 4.59.

It’s fair to expect the home run rate to jump as he climbs the ladder next year and Ely’s strikeout rate has trended downward over the past three seasons. Below are his strikeout and walk rates as he’s advanced through the system:

2007 (Rookie–56 IP): 9.00 K/9, 2.25 BB/9
2008 (A+–145 IP): 8.30 K/9, 2.85 BB/9
2009: (AA–156 IP): 7.20 K/9, 2.88 BB/9

As he’s faced better competition he’s missed less bats while his impeccable control has remained similar. His strikeout rate has likely declined because he lacks a consistent third pitch and his out pitch is his plus-plus change up. Ely has also failed to pitch deep into his starts at the professional level. He’s extremely durable and has made 66 starts (and one relief appearance) over the past three seasons. Below are the average amount of innings pitched for Ely per start:

2007: 4.6
2008: 5.3
2009: 5.7

On the positive side Ely has pitched deeper into games as his career has progressed but he’s still failed to complete six innings on an average basis. Perhaps the White Sox organization keeps their minor leaguers on a strict pitch count or kept Ely on a strict one. Ely only eclipsed or passed the 100 pitch marker twice last season (and each time that he did he tossed 100 or 101 pitches).

In some regards Ely also reminds me of former Red Sox hero Keith Foulke. Foulke had great command (2.22 career BB/9) and his big out pitch was his change up though Ely throws a bit harder than Foulke did. Foulke’s fastball was typically about 86-87 mph. I do think Ely could have success in a major league bull pen but might be forced into a big league rotation as soon as next year.

Ely will likely begin the 2010 season in Triple-A for the Dodgers but could be pushed into big league action if the cash-strapped Dodgers struggle to establish the back end of their rotation. It would be key if Ely could make strides with his breaking ball and he’s going to face many doubters that think he can’t start without a consistent third offering. And if he fails he’ll likely get a shot as a reliever but his fantasy value would disappear unless he was closing.

But Ely’s had success without a consistent third pitch (accompanied with an above average ground ball rate) and pitching in Dodger stadium can only help him and may serve as a de facto third pitch in some regards.

Track his progress closely in spring training and pick him up now if he’s available in your keeper leagues. If he begins getting starts at the big league level I’d take a gamble on him and see what materializes. He’s had nothing but success thus far despite an abnormal plan of attack.

As you probably have heard, the Detroit Tigers pulled off a major deal at the winter meetings. No, I’m not talking about shipping Clay Rapada to the Rangers for a PTBNL.

Detroit picked up RHP Max Scherzer, LHPs Daniel Schlereth and Phil Coke and OF prospect Austin Jackson in a three-team swap, shipping Curtis Granderson and Edwin Jackson out of town in the process. Let’s take a closer look at Austin Jackson’s value, now that his path to an eventual starting spot in the big leagues is clearer.

An 8th round pick in the 2005 amateur draft, Jackson received an $800,000 signing bonus to forego a scholarship to play basketball at Georgia Tech.

The 6-1, 185 pound righty batter made his full-season debut in 2006, batting .260/.339/.346 in the Low-A South Atlantic League. Jackson worked the count well (10.2 BB%) and swiped 37 bags in 49 attempts (76% success rate). However, rarely put a charge into the ball (.086 ISO), and he punched out in 28.2 percent of his PA.

Following the year, Baseball America named Jackson the 18th best prospect in the Yankees system. BA said that he “confused scouts as both an amateur and now as a pro.” They claimed that Jackson’s speed wasn’t really as advertised. Big SB numbers and hoops background aside, BA rated Austin’s wheels as “fringy,” limiting his range in center field. He also needed to “dramatically improve his breaking-ball recognition.”

Jackson began 2007 back in the Sally League, where he showed modest improvement in the power department. He hit .260/.336/.374 in 266 PA, walking 9.3% of the time and whiffing 25.1%. Jackson’s ISO climbed to a still-modest .115, and he stole 19 bases in 25 tries (76 percent success rate).

Bumped up to the High-A Florida State League in the summer, Jackson emerged as a top talent in New York’s system. His .345/.398/.566 triple-slash in 284 PA was aided by a sky-high .395 BABIP. But Jackson smacked 10 homers in the FSL, more than he had hit in his entire career prior to that point. His ISO spiked to .221. The extra thump came at the expense of some walks (7.9 BB%), but Jackson did pare his K rate to 18.6% while going 13-for-18 in SB attempts (72 percent).

Following his reign of terror with the Tampa Yankees, Jackson ascended to #2 on New York’s prospect list entering 2008. BA changed its tone regarding his defense, saying that Jackson had “developed above-average range in center field.” He was labeled a “future all-star candidate” by Yankees brass.

Jackson spent all of 2008 in the AA Eastern League, where he posted a .285/.354/.419 line in 584 PA. While 2007’s prodigious power display didn’t persist, Jackson managed an adequate .135 ISO. His walk rate perked back up to 9.7%, and he punched out 21.7% of the time. Austin was a more efficient base thief, with 19 SB in 25 tries (76 percent). Baseball America dubbed him the best talent in the Bronx Bombers’ farm system.

In 2009, Jackson patrolled all three outfield spots in the AAA International League, still spending most of his time in the middle pasture. His .300/.354/.405 triple-slash in 557 PA looks like business as usual, but there are some underlying signs that Jackson needs more development time.

The soon-to-be 23 year-old benefitted from an unsustainable .390 BABIP. Jackson is a swift runner (as evidenced by his 24 steals in 28 attempts for Scranton/Wilkes-Barre), and his career BABIP in the minors is .361. He has the skill-set of a high BABIP hitter. But a number creeping up on .400 isn’t going to continue.

Jackson wasn’t a complete hacker at the dish, but his rate of free passes taken dipped to 7.4%, and his K rate rose to 24.4%. He didn’t hit with much authority either, with a .105 ISO. Jackson’s Major League Equivalent (MLE) line was .258/.308/.342, according to Minor League Splits. That equates to a wOBA of about .291.

Long-term, Austin Jackson looks as though he could be an average to slightly above-average everyday center fielder. However, the Tigers should resist the urge to have him patrolling Comerica Park’s spacious outfield come April. Sean Smith’s CHONE projects a .252/.307/.359 line (.296 wOBA). Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS calls for a .245/.296/.338 line (.282 wOBA).

Those in keeper league should keep an eye on Jackson, as he projects to be a league average hitter long-term (Baseball Prospectus’ peak translation for him is .277/.346/.406) with the speed to steal 20 bags. Just don’t count on him come opening day.

According to ESPN’s Buster Olney, free agent catcher Gregg Zaun signed a one-year, $1.9M pact with the Milwaukee Brewers. The deal includes a $2.25M option for the 2011 season ($250K buyout). Since the Rays offered Zaun (a type B free agent) arbitration, they’ll pick up a supplemental first-rounder.

The switch-hitting Zaun has taken ball four and popped an occasional base hit for 15 years now. The man once dubbed “The Practically Perfect Backup Catcher” will turn 39 years old in April, but he’s coming off of a productive 2009 campaign split between the Orioles and the Rays.

In 296 PA, Zaun posted a .334 wOBA. He continued to take his walks (10.6 BB%, 16.9 Outside-Swing%) and managed a .156 ISO. That might not quicken your pulse, but the average MLB catcher authored a .310 wOBA in 2009, with a .141 ISO.

Much like he did when he joined the O’s last year, Zaun will probably provide a helping hand as a rookie catcher breaks into the big leagues. The Brewers have two catching prospects at the upper levels of the farm system: Jonathan Lucroy and Angel Salome.

A 3rd round pick in the ’07 draft, Lucroy compiled a .267/.380/.418 line at AA Huntsville last season. The 23 year-old likely won’t be a huge power threat at the highest level. But he possesses exceptional strike-zone discipline, having taken a free pass 15.7% of the time at Huntsville in 2009 (his career minor league walk rate is 11.6 percent).

Salome, also 23, spent the ’09 campaign at AAA Nashville. His future is murky if he can’t remain behind the dish, however. Built like Barney Rubble at 5-7 and 200 pounds, Salome is considered a fringy defensive catcher. Baseball America said he “often gets his footwork messed up behind the plate.” If he can’t cut it at catcher, where does he play?

Salome has bashed to the tune of a .316/.364/.483 line in the minors, including a .286/.334/.413 performance at Nashville last year. Salome’s career BABIP on the farm is .354: not exactly what one would expect from a catcher about as tall as Yogi Berra.

Here’s how CHONE projects the Brew Crew’s catching troika in 2010:

Zaun: .228/.323/.353
Lucroy: .247/.335/.379
Salome: .270/.321/.408

CHONE sees Zaun’s numbers regressing to a wOBA around .303. Bill James gives us a .316 projection, and the fans (194 people have weighed in on Zaun already? Whoa) call for a .318 wOBA.

Zaun looks like an intelligent, low-cost addition for Milwaukee, if not a terribly exciting fantasy option. Lucroy and Salome both have enough offensive skills to be of interest down the road, though Salome will have to prove he has the defensive chops to remain at the position.

The Arizona Fall League, Major League Baseball’s additional development league for prospects, is starting to wind down for 2009. Let’s have a look at some of the key prospects currently playing in the league.

Starlin Castro, SS, Chicago Cubs
The Chicago Cubs’ shortstop prospect is looking to make MLB incumbent Ryan Theriot nervous about his job security. The truth of the matter is that Castro currently projects to post similar numbers to that of Mr. Theriot. However, Castro has the edge defensively, so that could cause a shift to second base for the veteran infielder, which would then make Mike Fontenot expendable… perhaps after one more season.

In ’09, Castro hit .302/.340/.391 in high-A, where he spent the majority of the season. He also received a 31-game trial at double-A and held his own as a 19-year-old infielder by hitting .288/.347/.396. He stole 22 bases in 33 attempts in high-A – showing he needs to continue working on his base running skills – but he was perfect in six tries in double-A.

Still very young and developing, Castro looks capable of providing a .280-300 average, five to 10 homers and 20-30 steals in his prime. He’ll likely never be a run producer, and he’ll need to show a little more patience (5.0 BB% in high-A) to score a lot of runs at the top of the order. ETA: Mid-2011

Jose Tabata, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates
This former Yankees prospect has found a new lease on life in the Pirates organization. Tabata had a solid season in his first year in the organization… despite a rough start with some off-field controversy. Still just (supposedly) 21, Tabata began the year in double-A and hit .303/.370/.404 with and ISO of just .101 in 228 at-bats. Moved up to triple-A, the outfielder hit .276/.333/.410 in 134 at-bats. He did bump his ISO up to .134 and his strikeout rate remained good at 13.4%.

Unfortunately, Tabata was successful stealing bases in just 11 out 19 attempts. He’s never been a great base runner and his lower half continues to thicken up so we’re not likely to see a lot of steals in the future. This is a bad thing if Tabata’s power fails to develop, because it’s below-average for a corner outfielder (His likely destination in the Majors because he projects to lose range in center field). He has just one homer in 101 AFL at-bats. ETA: Mid-2010

Jonathan Gaston, OF, Houston Astros
Gaston may have excited more than a few fantasy-league managers in 2009 when he hit 35 homers (An out-of-this-world .320 ISO) and showed speed by stealing 14 bases and legging out 15 triples. He also hit 100 RBI and scored 119 runs, all of which would make him an extremely valuable fantasy prospect. However, he was playing in one of the best hitters’ parks in baseball and he posted a strikeout rate of 31.7 K%.

Now, many fantasy leagues won’t penalize you for strikeouts, but they will negatively impact his batting average, which was .278 in high-A ball. During the regular season, Gaston had two very hot months (May and June) when he hit for average, but he hit below .250 in April, July and August. The left-handed hitter is currently batting .111 against southpaws in the AFL in a small-sample size, but he also struggled against them in the regular season: .228/.335/.443 (.373 BABIP). Key an eye on Gaston, but don’t get too excited just yet; the 2010 season will be a big one for the Astros prospect. ETA: Mid-to-late 2011

Drew Storen, RHP, Washington Nationals
When an organization has Mike MacDougal as its closer, you know management is praying for something better to come along. Storen, a first-round draft pick from ’09, is currently rocketing through the minors and is on a collision course with the Nationals’ closer role, perhaps sooner rather than later. In ’09, he held batters to a .162 batting average while posting a strikeout rate of 11.61 K/9. He also showed solid control with a walk rate of 1.89 (although it slipped later on in the year as he tired).

Even though he posted a solid HR/9 rate of 0.47, Storen is a flyball pitcher (32.6 GB%) so he could end up being a little homer prone in the Majors. He held right-handed batters to a .111 batting average, but he was aided by a ridiculous .158 BABIP. As a fastball-slider pitcher, he may need to find a weapon to combat good left-handed hitters if he’s going to develop into an impact closer. ETA: Mid-2010

Now that J.J. Hardy has been shipped to the Twin Cities for CF Carlos Gomez, Milwaukee’s shortstop position belongs solely to Alcides Escobar.

The soon-to-be 23 year-old, signed out of Venezuela in 2003, has long been lauded for his slick glove work. Sean Smith’s Total Zone defensive system rated Escobar as +24 runs above average per 150 defensive games in 2008 and +21 in 2009. Hardy is an outstanding defender in his own right, but Alcides certainly won’t hurt Milwaukee’s pitchers, either.

Considering his position on the defensive spectrum and his exquisite range, Escobar could be a huge asset without putting up many crooked numbers on the scoreboard. But what about that bat? Can Alcides hit enough to make him relevant in fantasy circles in 2010?

The 6-1, 180 pound Escobar made his pro debut as a 17 year-old in 2004, taking his cuts in the Rookie-level Pioneer League. He batted .281/.348/.342 in 262 PA, displaying enough talent to crack Milwaukee’s top 30 prospects entering the 2005 season (Baseball America rated him 25th). Escobar was raw, to be sure, as he walked in less than 8% of his PA and was 20-29 in SB attempts.

Bumped up to the Low-A South Atlantic League in 2005, Alcides took his hacking to another level. Posting a .271/.305/.362 triple-slash in 562 PA, Escobar drew a walk just 3.6% of the time. With a .091 ISO, Alcides rarely got the ball out of the infield. He swiped 30 bases, but his technique remained unrefined (13 CS).

While that assessment sounds negative, keep in mind that Escobar was the same age as a high school senior, yet he managed not to embarrass himself at the plate while rating as a plus defender at shortstop. Baseball America jumped Escobar all the way up to 6th on Milwaukee’s prospects list.

2006 proved to be the toughest year of Alcides’ minor league career. He broke his finger in April, missing several weeks of action. Escobar never did get going at the dish, as he stumbled to a .259/.299/.308 line in 382 PA. Extra-base hits were the rarest of commodities (.049 ISO), and Alcides still swung from his heels with a 5.2 BB%. On the positive side, his 78 percent success rate on the base paths (28 SB in 36 attempts) was the highest mark of his career. BA ranked Escobar 9th among Brewers farm hands, believing that he had a “chance to grow into gap power.”

Milwaukee sent Escobar back to High-A to begin the 2007 season. The defensive stalwart swatted pitchers for a .325/.347/.377 triple-slash in 283 PA. However, the big gap between his ’06 and ’07 numbers appeared to be more of a BABIP spike (.303 in ’06 to .373 in ’07) than legitimate improvement in his plate approach. Escobar walked 2.5% of the time, with a .052 ISO. He was reckless on the bases as well: he snatched 18 bases, but was caught stealing 10 times (64% success rate).

The Brewers were encouraged enough to promote Escobar to the AA Southern League mid-season, where he batted .283/.314/.354 in 245 PA. It was much the same from an offensive standpoint. He improved his walk rate (4.6 BB%) and power output (.071 ISO), but we’re speaking in relative terms here. Strangely, Escobar was glued to first base in AA. He stole just four bases in seven tries.

Encouraged by his play as a 20 year-old just two rungs from the majors, BA bumped Escobar to third in the Milwaukee system. Alcides was said to have gotten stronger, which “stopped pitchers from knocking the bat out of his hands.”

Back at AA Huntsville in 2008, Escobar hit .328/.363/.434 in 597 PA. A .375 BABIP certainly didn’t hurt, and he did remain a free swinger (5.4 BB%). But Escobar posted a .100+ ISO for the first time in his career (.106). His 8 HR in ’08 topped the combined 7 HR he hit from 2004-2007. Escobar also used his wheels more efficiently, going 34 for 42 in steal attempts (81 percent success rate). BA dubbed him the best prospect in the system heading into the 2009 season.

Getting his first taste of AAA ball in ’09, Escobar didn’t disappoint. He managed a .298/.353/.409 line in 487 PA, walking 6.9% of the time with a .112 ISO. The secondary skills were still mild, but Escobar transformed from a potential liability at the plate during his early years to a guy who can at least occasionally deliver something offensively. He continued to use his speed to good effect as well, with a whopping 42 SB in 52 attempts (81 percent).

Called up to Milwaukee in August, Escobar hit .304/.333/.368 in 125 PA. Alcides was anxious in the batter’s box, walking just 3.1% and swinging at nearly 30% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone. He rarely drove the ball (.064 ISO), while making plenty of contact (92.7 Z-Contact%, 87.8% MLB average). Escobar stole four bags in six tries.

Heading into 2010, fantasy owners should expect Escobar to go through some growing pains at the plate. According to Minor League Splits, Alcides’ AAA line equated to a .259/.301/.345 showing at the major league level. That translated line could be selling Escobar a bit short batting average-wise: he had a .346 BABIP in the minors, suggesting his world-class speed allows him to beat out more infield hits than the average batter.

It seems unlikely that the lanky shortstop will become more than a decent hitter, given his paucity of secondary skills, but he has the potential to steal 25+ bags in 2010. Though his plate discipline isn’t quite as good, Escobar could be the National League’s answer to Elvis Andrus.