So as you all no doubt know by now, Josh Johnson was part of the trade of fantasy baseball proportions that is expected to be finalized at some point today. It’s time for JJ to start trading in his dollars for loonies and toonies and switch sides when debating whether to blame Canada. Let’s figure out how the move to the American League and now calling the Rogers Centre home will affect Johnson’s performance.
Remember the excitement over Matt Wieters‘ debut only several years ago? The hype was so over the top, an entire website was created to list all of his “accomplishments” and “facts”. Now having logged 2,031 plate appearances with just a .327 career wOBA, it’s fair to say that Wieters has been a disappointment to many so far. He was also one for fantasy owners this season who hoped for that big breakout finally, but he earned just $10, ranking him 8th among catchers. Is this it or is the big breakout finally coming next season?
As we sift through Zach Sanders’ end of season catcher valuations, we find a surprising name sitting at number five, having earned $12 (would be more in two catcher leagues). Well, not surprising given that we know how he performed, but surprising in that we didn’t even rank him as part of our consensus during the pre-season. Ramon Hernandez was supposed to receive the bulk of the backstop playing time for the Rockies, but he suffered a hand injury in late May that opened the door for rookie Wilin Rosario. When Hernandez finally returned, Rosario had already run away with the job.
The Arizona Fall League as long been considered prospect finishing school. Most recently uber-talented youngsters Mike Trout and Bryce Harper decimated the pitching-light league prior to ascending to Triple-A and then the Major Leagues. But the 2012 crop in Arizona doesn’t feel as talented as previous years had. Is the talent level in the league dropping?
No, I’m not alluding to Alexander the Great or commenting on Chris Young’s agility, which I’m sure he possesses boatloads of. Back on October 20, Young came to the Beane, as he was traded to Oakland to give them their bajillionth outfielder. Without even looking at numbers, we could be pretty sure that all else equal, Young’s performance will suffer moving into spacious O.co Coliseum (can I officially nominate this as the worst name for an MLB park? thanks). But of course, this is FanGraphs, and we’re all about our calculators and slide rules, so let’s see exactly how his production may be affected.
Who was one of the most surprising shortstops this season? Your fourth ranked Nationals breakout star Ian Desmond, who earned $19 this season. Obviously, no one saw this coming. The RotoGraphs consensus ranked him just 15th at the position, and no one was more optimstic than Jeff Zimmerman at 14, whose ranking was based on ZiPS projections. If it weren’t for a torn oblique injury that forced him to miss nearly a month of the season, his counting stats, and resulting ranking, would have been even better. So has he established a new level of skill, or was this just a typical career year ripe for regression?
How often does a 22 year old actually perform basically right in line with pre-season expectations? Well, Starlin Castro pretty much did just that this season. According to Zach Sanders’ calculator, he earned $18, ranking him 5th among shortstops. Our RotoGraphs consensus rankings slotted him fourth, so Castro did what he was supposed to. Top players are certainly expected to be consistent year in and year out, but this was only Castro’s third full season, so really, a major breakout or a flop wouldn’t have been too surprising. So what does the future hold for young Starlin?
This week is all about the hot corner. Our own mathemagician Zach Sanders published his final season rankings and dollar values for third basemen this morning. Sitting all the way down at a disappointing 19, with just $4 earned, is the Blue Jays’ third sacker Brett Lawrie. In the pre-season, we were pretty consistent with our opinon on Lawrie and ranked him fifth overall, tied with Adrian Beltre. Were we suckered in by his sizzling play in 2011 in a small sample of just 150 at-bats?
I like games. I’m sure you like games. So let’s play one. No, this is not an earthshattering new game that will revolutionize the world. In fact, you have probably played it before. It’s that old “here are several players’ statistics, guess who each line belongs to” one. Fun, right? I agree. I will also try to perform an entire analysis without revealing names until the end. So here they are, try to guess without cheating:
| Rnk | Name | AB | HR | R | RBI | SB | BA | $$$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Player A | 571 | 6 | 62 | 65 | 10 | 0.291 | 6 |
| 19 | Player B | 611 | 8 | 79 | 67 | 2 | 0.277 | 6 |
Before the season, Neil Walker basically epitomized the term “blah” when describing his fantasy baseball prospects. He was expected to contribute a little here and a little there, but not stand out in any one category. These types of players always seem boring, but are typically undervalued as the perceived value of their across the board contributions are less than those from the speed demons or big power hitters. Surprisingly, we had a bit of disparity in our pre-season rankings, as they ranged from 9 to 15, with a consensus of 13. I personally came in at 15, which provides yet a second surprise given the fact that I boldly predicted that Walker would earn top five value at second base.
