The Corner Infield episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Frank Stampfl

Strategy Section

• 1st & 2nd Rounds
  • What should you accomplish in the 1st two rounds?
  • Do you need to draft a starting pitcher in the first few rounds of drafts?
  • Overvalued players
    • Should you draft catchers in the first two rounds?
    • Ohtani at 1.1 ?
  • Undervalued players
    • Freddie Freeman’s consistency
  • Players drafted outside the first two rounds, but should be drafted earlier.
  • The Top 3
    • Why Elly De La Cruz should and shouldn’t be considered to be drafted just outside the top 3.
• The ATC Volatility Metrics
• Corner Infield strategy
  • Player pool

ATC Undervalued Players

• Corner Infielders
  • • Vinnie Pasquantino 1B
    • Alec Bohm 3B
    • Yandy Díaz 1B
    • Luis Rengifo 2B/3B
    • Nolan Arenado 3B
    • Andrew Vaughn 1B
    • Michael Busch 1B
    • Ryan McMahon 3B

Injury Update

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One of my favorite traditions every winter is to peruse our Steamer600 projections and dream about some potential breakthrough seasons. This puts everyone on equal footing playing time-wise since it is the most difficult factor to consistently project as Rob Manfred simply refuses to turn off injuries in the global settings of the game!

Here are some of my favorite potential breakouts using these numbers:

CATCHER (they do make an exception at C where it’s 450 PA since very few Cs log 600)

Gabriel Moreno | ARI, 194 ADP | .283 AVG, 10 HR, 54 R, 51 RBI, 5 SB

I am still on the Moreno Train! He couldn’t really build on his 2023 breakout because while he did add a few points to his wRC+ total, he only played 97 games and saw his .284 AVG drop 18 points. Thumb and adductor strains in June and August, respectively, cost him about a month of time and contributed to his modest overall output. While it didn’t yield much in the way of his counting stats, it is worth noting that Moreno had a sharp improvement in plate skills, doubling his BB/K from 0.8, tops among catchers with at least 350 PA. A fully healthy season could see the 25-year-old backstop eclipse 400 PA for the first time while this projection likes him for a power surge, too. We did catch a glimpse of power production during their World Series run in 2023 as Moreno clubbed 4 HRs in 70 PA after hitting 7 in 380 during the regular season. The batting average is the key though, so even if he stays more in the 5-7 HR range, there is upside to chase with Moreno. In the last five full seasons (so 2019 added in to replace 2020) there have been just eight instances of a catcher hitting .280+ in at least 400 PA with William Contreras being the only guy to do it twice. I like Moreno to join that club in 2025.

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The Catcher episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Erik Halterman

Strategy Section

• Snake Drafts
  • How to generally prepare
  • How has preparation changed over the past five years?
  • Drafting “naked”
  • Drafting early in the season (January) vs. drafting late in the season (March)
  • Create a do not draft list?
  • Draft risky pitchers?
  • Proactive vs. Relative approach
    • ADP Chicken
  • How to use ADP
  • How to handle risk?
    • In the aggregate
    • Per player
      • Risk-adjusted pricing
    • Power drafters (playing in multiple leagues)
    • Binary risks
      • Free agents in mono leagues
• Catcher strategy
  • Player pool
  • The value of catchers
    • Catcher bump

ATC Undervalued Players

• Catchers
  • • Salvador Perez
      • Is Perez worthy of the Hall of Fame?
    • Logan O’Hoppe
    • Gabriel Moreno
    • Austin Wells
    • Luis Campusano

Mailbag

Injury Update

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The Auction Strategy (Part 2) episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Marc Winokur

Auction Strategy Section

• Hitter vs. Pitcher split
  • For valuations
  • For allocations
• Money management in an auction
• In-draft inflation
  • Calculate or feel it?
  • Keeper league inflation
• Endgame
  • How many $1 players should you look to acquire?
  • Is it good to have the hammer?
• Nominations
  • Multi-round plan
  • Nominations are very important
  • Tips
• Bidding
  • Timing, frequency & speed
  • NFBC’s Max Bid button
• Scouting players

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The Auction Strategy (Part 1) episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Marc Winokur

Auction Strategy Section

• Differences between auctions and snake drafts
  • Benefits of auctions
  • Difference in preparation
• Advice for new auction players
• The most important items to keep track of during an auction
• Working with a partner
• How online auctions differ from in-person auctions
• How to construct market values
  • What to do for non-standard formats
• How to construct player values
• How to construct strike prices for buying players

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The year was 2023, the MLB season was ending, and Elehuris Montero was on a tear Read the rest of this entry »

Salaries can inflate as the season goes on. A player that makes you think pass as the auction price heads above $2 in March may look more like an easy $4 in the middle of July. Ben Rice is that player. But what do you do with him once the season is over? Check RosterResource? Follow the offseason beat? Or, take matters into your own hands and head to the winter meetings to ask the brass some hard-hitting questions? Whatever you choose, you can also incorporate a plethora of statistics to make your decisions more informed. Join me as I grapple with my own keep/cut decisions at the corner-infield position.

Replacement level 1B (24 rostered): 4.55 P/G

Replacement level 3B (24 rostered): 4.36 P/G

2024 Keep/Cut: C – CI – MI – OF – SP – RP

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This article ranks the top 25 hitting prospects by peak projected MLB wRC+ heading into 2025, continuing an annual tradition (skip to the bottom for the ranking!). It is a counterpart to the top 25 pitching prospects piece I published last month.

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Continuing an annual tradition, this article ranks the top 25 starting pitching prospects by peak projected MLB ERA heading into 2025 (skip to the bottom for the ranking!)

Like the other projection systems at FanGraphs, my projections capture the usual ingredients: past performance weighted by recenecy, regression to the mean that accounts for a player’s probability of making the major leagues, major league equivalencies to adjust for minor league difficulty, aging, park effects, and league scoring environment. The peak projections make use of aging curves to translate a player’s forecast to a late-20s peak forecast. Regardless of where the “true” peak age is, there is broad consensus that most growth happens in the teen years and early-20s, however.

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The season is barely over, but we are already on to 2025, and some of the most useful tools for Ottoneu managers are out to help us. Early Steamer Projections are out and Justin Vibber has pulled them into the first push of the Ottoneu Surplus Calculator (SC) which means we have some early, rough values on players for 2025.

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