We’re getting close to 50% completion of the 2024 season, so I thought the time was right for a midseason update to my projections-based prospect ranks. You can find more methodological detail, along with the preseason lists here (bats) and here (arms).
The Value episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.
Guest: Larry Schechter
Larry’s new book – The History of Fantasy Sports
Strategy Section
Waiver Wire
Pitcher Preview
Injury Update
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This article ranks the game’s top projected hitting prospects by peak wRC+ heading into 2024 (it does not incorporate any 2024 data). It is a counterpart to this February piece on baseball’s top projected pitching prospects. I only just got done with my offseason methodological updates for hitters–please forgive me for publishing this one week into the season!
Every year, spring training performances inflate, and sometimes deflate, auction prices and ADP. The vast majority of the time, it’s the wrong reaction. But sometimes, it’s the right move. We do learn new information during spring training, such as exit velocities, pitch velocities, new stances, new pitches added to a repertoire, etc etc. That’s what I care about, not that a hitter is batting .450 (unless it results in more projected playing time) or a pitcher holds a 1.37 ERA (unless it wins him a rotation spot or the closer role). So let’s talk about my starting pitcher targets, plus a bonus hitter sleeper.
The Draft & Auction Recap episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.
Guest: Justin Mason
Strategy Section
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This article looks at the predictive power of spring training statistics last year for hitters. It applies learnings from last year to highlight a few movers and shakers so far this spring (based on spring games through 3/13).
The Relief Pitcher episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.
Guest: Greg Jewett
Strategy Section
Closer Situations
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The Mock Draft episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.
Guest: Chris Welsh
Strategy Section
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This is Jordan Rosenblum’s debut at Rotographs.
I’ve spent the last couple of seasons building out a fully-fledged projection system. You may have seen the StuffPlus-fueled version of them, ppERA, published by Eno Sarris over at The Athletic, or else variations of them elsewhere. Like most projection systems, mine includes aging curves, major league equivalencies, park factors, league run environment adjustments, historical performance, and regression to the mean.
My pitching projections performed well in terms of predictive accuracy in 2023, generally holding their own against other more established projection systems, with my rookie projections performing especially well. I must, however, concede that Steamer dominated the field overall—all hail! This article unveils my top 10 projected pitching prospects for 2024 and beyond, highlighting names worth breaking the TINSTAAP pledge for.
The Starting Pitcher Preview (Part II) episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.
Guest: Paul Sporer
Strategy Section
Starting Pitchers
ATC Undervalued Players
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