Over the last couple of years, I have run the “Steamer and I” series, pitting our hitter wOBA and pitcher ERA projections against each other and discussing the players our forecasts differ the most for. I’m going to do things a little bit differently this year by focusing on individual stat categories, identifying a group of players I’m significantly more bullish on compared to Steamer, and vice versa, in that metric.

We’ll start with home runs. I will be comparing my home run Pod Projections to Steamer, which have been extrapolated to the same number of at-bats I’m forecasting. Today, we’ll look at the hitters I’m most bullish on versus Steamer.

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The Pod Projections are back! My projections are based on the methodology shared in my eBook Projecting X 2.0, and the process continues to evolve and improve.

A couple of months ago, I received my first Pod Projection request from a commenter, and that request was for Astros starting pitcher Lance McCullers. The 23-year-old made his Houston debut in 2015, as he made 22 starts and posted an impressive 3.22 ERA with excellent underlying skills. Unfortunately, he followed up that freshman effort by finding himself on the disabled list for what amounted to about half the season. He dealt with both shoulder and elbow issues, which limited him to just 14 starts. Although his control deserted him, he still posted strong skills, en route to an identical ERA as 2015. Now, he’s the newest member of my 2017 LABR Mixed Draft squad, so let’s find out what I projected his 2017 results to look like.

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Alas, we have come to both the final 2016 Pod Projection recap and the last review of my 2016 preseason articles! We arrive at Raisel Iglesias, whose projections were all likely to be wrong, because we all figured he’d remain in the starting rotation. Instead, he ended up making just five starts, missed a month and a half with a shoulder injury, and then return as a reliever. He even ended up recording six saves! But let’s see what I projected and what actually transpired anyway.

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Alas, we have reached the end of our Steamer and I reviews and I left the best for last…just kidding. Though I was surprisingly far more bullish on Sonny Gray than Steamer was, his season was an unquestioned disaster. So we certainly know whose forecast was better before even beginning our deep dive! But let’s get to the two projections sets anyway and compare what Steamer and I were expecting versus what actually transpired.

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Let’s return to reviewing my Pod Projections, this time diving into popular preseason sleeper, Taijuan Walker. Though he posted a poor 4.56 ERA in 2015, he had been a heavily hyped prospect and averaged over 94 mph with his fastball. So that made him a favorite target with serious breakout potential in 2016. In April, he made his newly minted owners proud, as he posted a microscopic 1.44 ERA and 2.69 xFIP. But then the wheels fell apart and he ended up missing time due to a foot injury. Sadly, the strong April wasn’t enough to keep his ERA from finishing above 4.00, and now he gets to start 2017 on a new team and in a new league. Let’s what what I projected for 2016 and how it compared to his actual results.

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Let’s take a short break from my Pod Projection recaps (only two left!) to review another Steamer and I, where I identify players I’m far more bullish or bearish on than Steamer is. Carlos Rodon was a heavily hyped prospect after being selected as the third overall pick in the 2014 June Amateur Draft. He jetted through the minors so quickly, you would swear he never actually made an appearance. In fact, he recorded a total of just 34.2 minor league innings before making his Major League debut in 2015. It was an excellent debut, at least from an ERA perspective, so expectations were high.

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At last, we come to our final outfielder Steamer and I review. Today, I’ll recap my Steamer and I battle over Michael Conforto, which pit my Pod Projection against the Steamer projection system. I was surprised to learn that I was significantly more bullish on Conforto than Steamer was, as I felt he was actually overvalued in fantasy leagues, though mostly due to his expected lineup slot toward the bottom of the Mets order. Let’s see what we expected versus what actually transpired.

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Onward and forward we move with the Steamer and I series recaps, pitting my Pod Projection against Steamer! Today, I’ll review how we forecasted Yoenis Cespedes. Unlike Mike Trout and Yasiel Puig who I previously recapped, I was actually significantly more bullish than Steamer on Cespedes. Let’s find out exactly what each system was projecting versus how Cespedes actually fared.

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Let’s continue with the outfielder Steamer and I reviews by checking in on an amusing player — Yasiel Puig. I was significantly more bearish on Puig than Steamer was, and while we know now that Puig has continued his offensive slide, let’s dive into exactly what we expected versus how he actually performed.

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Today, I start my reviews of my Steamer and I series that happened to cover mainly outfielders (not by design). The series compared my Pod Projection to the Steamer projection, as I discussed the players I was either significantly more bullish or bearish on compared to the system. We start with Mike Trout, who I was far more bearish on than Steamer. It was an interesting exercise for me since I had no idea I was in that position to begin with. Diving it to determine why was an enlightening activity.

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