Archive for Projecting X

Mark Reynolds Enters the Land of Cleve

**Merry Christmas to those who celebrate the light-filled holiday! I am a Jew, and as a result, will be fitting the stereotype to a T, going to a movie followed by a delicious Chinese dinner.

A couple of weeks ago, free agent slugger Mark Reynolds signed a one-year deal with the Cleveland Indians to man first base on a full-time basis. He’s coming off a disappointing season that saw a drop in power that came along with the usual horrid batting average. Oriole Park at Camden Yards had always had a bandbox perception, while Progressive Field in Cleveland has typically been thought of a pitcher’s park, but never mentioned in the same breath as other extreme pitcher’s parks. Based strictly on perception, the ballpark switch is going to hurt Reyndolds’ chances of a rebound. Let’s see what the data says.

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Cody Ross Heads West

On Saturday, Cody Ross signed with the Diamondbacks, creating a crowded outfield situation in Arizona. Given that they are paying him nearly $9 million per year, it suggests that a Jason Kubel or Justin Upton trade is imminent. Sending Adam Eaton down to the minors is another option, but that seems unlikely. Assuming that Ross has a full-time job in the outfield, this is how the the switch in ball parks should affect his performance.

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Homer Bailey: It Finally Happened

“It” being the long awaited breakout. After coming up through the Reds system as one of the top pitching prospects in the game, Homer Bailey was supposed to eventually lead the team’s rotation. But up until 2011, he had never posted an ERA below 4.43 and hadn’t pitched more than 132.0 innings. Through parts of five seasons, Bailey had been a disappointment and many were ready to give up on him ever becoming what had once been expected. Then 2012 happened and Bailey finally had that true breakout year we all thought he was capable of.

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Alex Gordon: Who Are You?

Shameless self promotion: I felt it necessary to announce that I have finally joined this thing called Twitter. Okay, so it’s not exactly new to me, as I have multiple business accounts, but never felt the need for a personal one. So yeah, for you Twitterers reading this, follow me @MikePodhorzer if you dare. I’ll try to be entertaining (twittertaining?).

It doesn’t feel too long ago that Alex Gordon was one of the most hyped prospects of the moment, vaulted from a fantastic season at Double-A in 2006, and then wOBA’d a somewhat disappointing .316 during his rookie campaign. Nearly all of his improvement in his sophomore season came from a jump in walk rate, as his minor league patience finally translated. Then he stunk it up and received all of 406 at-bats (also partly due to a hip injury) over the following two years. In 2011, the long awaited breakout finally arrived. Then he took a step back this season and we’re back questioning who exactly is Alex Gordon?

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Colby Rasmus Disappoints Again

Once upon a time, Colby Rasmus possessed an exciting power/speed combo in the Cardinals farm system. A potential 20/20 man, maybe even 30/20, who posted strong walk rates and decent contact rates given his power, Rasmus looked to be an intriguing fantasy outfielder. But after showing some glimmers of his potential over his first two seasons, he was shipped off to the Blue Jays in 2011 and has hit a robust .213 for his new team. Is this all we can hope for or is a true breakout somewhere in his future?

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The Good Alex Rios Reappears

If there was a roller coaster ride named after a baseball hitter, its name would be Alex Rios. The White Sox outfielder has given fantasy owners and projection makers fits trying to make sense of his ups and downs. But there he was, sitting happily at the fifth slot among outfielders, having earned $22 for the 2012 season. Is this just 2010 all over again that will be followed with another 2011, or are we witnessing a new Alex Rios?

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Desmond Jennings: Still the Next Carl Crawford?

I have been a huge fan of Desmond Jennings as he climbed the minor league ladder. He looked like he could potentially be a Carl Crawford clone for fantasy leaguers with mid-teen home run potential, a boat load of stolen bases and a good batting average buoyed by a solid contact rate. But after teasing us with a 24 homer/48 steal season prorated to 600 at-bats in 2011, he was a bit of a disappointment this year.

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Dexter Fowler Breaks Out, Barely

Hello everyone and welcome back to our positional review of the 2012 season. Hope you enjoyed your turkey, but now it’s back to business. This morning, Zach Sanders published the final season values for outfielders. Sitting at number 53 and earning $6 is perennial breakout candidate Dexter Fowler. But while the absolute ranking and dollar value don’t suggest he outperformed projections, he actually did. And now the question of course is whether these new skills are repeatable.

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Juan Pierre Returns to Miami

On Saturday night, the Marlins followed up their latest salary dump by welcoming back Juan Pierre. With Logan Morrison expected to become the team’s starting first baseman, assuming he’s not traded as well, Pierre should see everyday at-bats in left field. With every other lead-off option now gone, Pierre will likely hit atop the lineup on a regular basis.

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Josh Johnson Heads to Canada

So as you all no doubt know by now, Josh Johnson was part of the trade of fantasy baseball proportions that is expected to be finalized at some point today. It’s time for JJ to start trading in his dollars for loonies and toonies and switch sides when debating whether to blame Canada. Let’s figure out how the move to the American League and now calling the Rogers Centre home will affect Johnson’s performance.

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