The outfield is always a bear. So many dang players. We’ve got 114 ranked, and another 16 mentioned, which should get you all the way through your five-outfield twenty-team league and then one or two.

But a word first about our rankers and our rankings. One of the reasons we’re using four rankers is, as I said, to do a mini crowd-source. (I do like the idea of opening it up to our fans, so we’ll see about that as a long-term plan, by the way.) Something was made of a certain ranking of Chase Headley in the third basemen — but that ranking dragged the Padres’ hot corner man up one spot in the consensus. Seems like folly to make such a big deal about one spot, and, in a way, it represents the fact that some drafters out there will believe in Chase Headley too. Heck, our own xHR/FB analysis believes in Chase Headley.

But that’s enough about third basemen. Here, no doubt some of you will be upset about a certain ranking of Giancarlo Stanton. Well guess what. That ranking might have cost the powerful Stanton two spots in the rankings at most. And! Stanton doesn’t steal bases, has a high strikeout rate that could lead to a bad batting average, and is coming off a year in which he saw knee surgery. You could tell the story of Justin Upton, who has power, speed, and the ability to hit .300 — is it crazy to put him ahead of a possible one-category guy on a bad team?

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While the corners remain the same, the Cincinnati Reds made a big change in center field with a major three-team trade with the Diamondbacks and Indians during the offseason. They gave up a fine, defensive shortstop prospect, but obtained an outstanding 20-20 outfielder to cover center and possibly opened the door a little wider for one of their most-hyped prospects down the road. There’s some interesting flexibility that the team has right now, so let’s take a quick look… Read the rest of this entry »

The New York Yankees received some devastating news this week when their star outfielder Curtis Granderson broke his forearm after being hit by a pitch. Granderson has done an admirable job during his three years in pinstripes. He has so far accumulated 406 hits, 108 home runs and a .247/.337/.506 slash line while playing in New York. The Granderson news got me thinking about the organization’s long term future in the outfield. I’ve been very impressed by the looks I’ve gotten at star prospect Mason Williams. While he is recovering from shoulder surgery and obviously not ready to fill in for Granderson or help the major league team quite yet he does remain the team’s best prospect. I thought we’d take a look at what kind of player Williams can be once he is ready for the big leagues.

The Breakdown

When I saw Williams for the first time in 2011 what immediately stood out was how very skinny he is. His build at the time looked more like “marathon runner” rather than “baseball player.” The upside of this is that Williams had and still has a lot of room to put good weight and muscle on his frame without losing athleticism. In 2012 he did begin this process and bulked up a bit. Williams is a very good athlete and plus runner yet he’s not quite a true “burner.” He is a capable base stealer but is doing so on speed right now rather than technique. He’ll need to continue to improve reading pitchers and getting jumps as he faces more advanced competition. He’s not Billy Hamilton but 20 plus stolen bases is reasonable. Williams will be a contributor but non-elite option on the basepaths for your fantasy squad.

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Yankees fans and fantasy owners cringed when the diagnosis was released — J.A. Happ‘s errant fastball broke Curtis Granderson’s right forearm during his first at-bat of Spring Training on Sunday. The good news is e suffered the injury very early in camp, so the ten-week recovery puts him on track to return in early-May rather than sometime later in the summer.

The Yankees can’t really afford to lose Granderson’s bat after letting Nick Swisher, Russell Martin, Eric Chavez, and others walk as free agents this winter, but fantasy owners are losing out on a 40-homer (pace) outfielder as well. Granderson hit at least seven homers in three of the last four Aprils, and while that doesn’t mean he would have automatically done it again in 2013, it is a reminder of what he’s capable of providing early in the season.

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Few teams have an outfield as “set in stone” as the St. Louis Cardinals. The team nearly missed making it to the World Series, losing a drawn-out seven-game series to the eventual World Series Champion San Francisco Giants, and they did it while getting a combined 12.8 WAR from the three guys expected to man the outfield in 2013. So while the team’s outfield features three “safe” fantasy bets for the 2013 season, there’s a wild card hidden away here that may pay fantasy dividends at the end of the season.

Left Field

Consistency, thy name is Matt Holliday. Aside from the loss of his stolen base totals from the mid-00s, Holliday has hardly dropped off one bit in terms of fantasy production. Playing in all but five games in 2012, Holliday delivered his usual combination of runs (95), RBI (102), homers (27), and batting average (.295). Do you play in an OBP league? Holliday does that too, posting a .379 on-base percentage last season. And though he may have struck out just a hair more than in previous seasons, all signs look good from a peripherals standpoint.

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This offseason proved to be rough on the Milwaukee Brewers. Their star player has been linked to performance enhancing drugs, and their right-fielder will miss the beginning of the season with a knee injury, and will now be playing first base. All of this seems strangely familiar, no? But both issues proved to be overblown last year. Ryan Braun’s test was overturned, leading to another strong performance. Corey Hart returned from his knee injury and didn’t miss a beat, basically posting his career-averages with slightly more power. If they hope to contend, the Brewers need a repeat performance this season.

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Red Sox outfield prospect Bryce Brentz made headlines recently when he accidentally shot himself in the leg while cleaning a gun. The injury wasn’t severe and he’s already returning to practice, but who knew cleaning a handgun could be as dangerous as standing in front of Robin Yount? Thankfully for dynasty owners “firearm handling” is not a category in most fantasy leagues. So what can Brentz do for your fantasy team?

The Breakdown

I was able to see Brentz a few times during the 2012 season. Defensively he is a prototypical corner outfielder and his strong arm makes right field a nice, cozy fit. The athleticism doesn’t stand out but he’s not a bad runner. The speed plays better in the outfield than it does on the base paths and his stolen base totals will likely be in the low single digits each season. As he ages his thick build does have the potential to become more of an issue and slow him down to some degree. I still expect Brentz is going to qualify in the outfield until he’s well into his 30’s.

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General Manager Billy Beane has done a magnificent job of acquiring depth in the outfield. Both he and manager Bob Melvin seem to have a firm grasp on the value of platooning positions, and the outfield that the A’s have built is exhibit A in this. With so much talent, the question is of course guaranteed playing time and starting roles.

After his breakout season last year, Josh Reddick should be a fixture in right field. He did struggle down the stretch (read: all of September). He did set a career high in games played in a single season by 10, almost 20 more games than he played in 2011. It could easily be chalked up to a mix of fatigue and pressing too much in a playoff hunt. Seeing his September/October triple slash of .164/.214/.295 was brutal to watch (although his home run in Game 2 against Detroit was amazing to see live). His .174 BABIP during that time frame speaks volumes about his real struggles, as his K% was lower than his seasonal average and his BB% dipped just a tick. His average will never inspire you, but his power is real and his counting stats should be plenty enough to warrant a mid round draft pick.
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If you were to pick an area of the Angels that was their Achilles heel last season, you’d have to start with a look at the failures of their starting pitching. Yet during the offseason, the Angels made the biggest splash in the free agent market when they opted to throw another $125 million into their outfield and continued to transform their lineup into a premium offensive juggernaut. For fantasy owners looking for both power and speed in the outfield, the Halos have become a one-stop shop that can easily satisfy all of your needs. Read the rest of this entry »

Last Thursday, fellow RotoGrapher Chris Cwik tried to make sense of Justin Ruggiano’s half a season breakout performance last year. Chris primarily focused on historical comparables and concluded that it is unlikely that Ruggiano will continue to enjoy above average offensive performance. Looking at historical comparables is a good idea and tells us that Ruggiano is indeed facing long odds. However, I want to take that analysis one step further and dive into Ruggiano’s specific skill set to determine whether he’ll experience a better fate than the majority of the group in Chris’ sample.

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