After posting the all bullish stock watch two weeks ago, now the tables have turned and we’ll focus on the bearish report. This isn’t to say that the players here have no value, just less value than their name or draft position may have once yielded them.

Emilio Bonifacio
After stealing 40 bases in 2011 and 30 last season, Emilio Bonifacio finds himself well off of that pace this year. Last season he appeared in just 64 games but still managed those 30 steals, whereas this year he has already appeared in 54 games and has just seven bags to show for it. His strikeout rate is up, his walk rate is down, and his triple slash is a gruesome .206/.236/.315. A large part of his struggles can be attributed to his .264 BABIP, which is almost 60 points below his .330 career average. That being said, the skepticism comes from seeing Bonifacio strikeout almost once every four plate appearances. His 10.1 SwStr% is a career worst mark and his 35.8% O-Swing% and his 51% Swing% are both the worst since his rookie season.

Bonifacio may be a prime example of a solid utility player being overwhelmed when given a starters playing time. His projections aren’t kind to him either, as ZiPS and Steamer both predict a batting average around .250, 20 runs scored, and 15ish stolen bases the rest of the season. With Jose Reyes playing in simulated games and not terribly far from a rehab assignment and Maicer Izturis and Munenori Kawasaki both looking for playing time in the middle infield, Bonifacio’s grasp on the second base job looks shaky. Bonifacio isn’t largely owned, just 11% ESPN, 17% Yahoo!, and 28% in CBS leagues, but it may be time to call it a day with him.
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There’s nothing like the threat of being sent down to light a fire under a player, and while Kyle Blanks had started his climb out of the depths before he was given his reprieve, Yonder Alonso’s broken hand may yet prove to be the turning point in Blanks’ season.

Simply put, Blanks doesn’t hit well when he doesn’t start. So far this season, Blanks has come into the game as a sub in 12 of the 41 games he has played in. In those 12 games, Blanks has hit .182/.250/.273 without a single home run or even an RBI; if he isn’t in the starting line up, he isn’t providing any type of fantasy value. If he does start, Blanks hits .311/.395/.538 with all six of his home runs, 21 RBI, and a stolen base for good measure, and this is where Alonso’s injury comes into play. Read the rest of this entry »

Well, maybe it’s not so bad. In fantasy baseball, at least, most of the Marlins’ outfielders are owned in deep leagues. Juan Pierre might even be owned in some mixed leagues for his steals. At least when he goes up against the catchers from Tampa, San Diego, Anaheim, either Chicago, and Boston. And maybe it’s not that bad in real life either: the team has more than two wins from the outfield squad, and that’s good for 18th in the league.

But the way that outfield has been managed, and the type of talent that could be on the way, means that the Marlins outfield still represents some sort of crisis. In that it is in flux, and there’s opportunity here if the chips fall a certain way.

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If you took Jason Heyward in your draft this year you almost certainly spent a pretty penny on him. After a 27 homer and 21 steal campaign and the fact that Justin Upton was acquired to hit directly behind him in the lineup, Heyward was an extremely attractive target on draft day and if you left the draft with him as your top outfielder you probably felt pretty happy about it.
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With a lot shifting in the American League outfield, let’s get down to business. But this time it isn’t to defeat the Huns.

Tier One
Mike Trout
Chris Davis

For all the struggles that the Los Angeles Angels have been experiencing, it is hard to find any fault with Mike Trout. He already has double digit steals and home runs as well as a 149 wRC+. The surprise here is Chris Davis, of course. with 20(!) home runs already and a reduced strikeout, plus an increased walk rate, it is hard to find any real faults in his approach or his numbers. Davis’ year to date is certainly impressive, however he can’t keep up this pace forever, right? We’ll see, but given what he has done — and more importantly what he projects to end the season with — has earned him a spot in the top tier.
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It’s a pair of J names in this week’s deep league waiver wire recommendations. But don’t worry if you are considering adding a hitter with a first name that does not begin with the letter J. I’m sure he’s just as worthy of joining your squad as these fine lads.

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Always an underrated power source, Josh Willingham has become more and more Adam Dunn like this season than the Willingham we are used to seeing. In the past, Willingham has been a tremendously undervalued source of power while not destroying your batting average. While he has never been a contributor in that category, he has scuffled along with serviceable .260 marks in three of his four seasons leading up to this year.
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Rookies of the Year have a mixed record of success after their first season. Some, like Albert Pujols, Justin Verlander, and Ryan Braun, go on to have many productive seasons and great careers. Others, like Bobby Crosby, Dontrelle Willis, and Angel Berroa collect their trophy and promptly crater. It’s too early in Chris Coghlan’s career to unceremoniously drop him in that second category just yet, but his wRC+ in 2012 was five. That’s it, just five, or the equivalent of 95 percent below league average, so he was certainly headed in the direction of obscurity. Recently, however, not only has Coghlan (ESPN: 6.7 percent owned; Yahoo!: 3 percent owned) received consistent playing time in a way he hadn’t in previous seasons, he has been hitting the cover off the ball. Read the rest of this entry »

If a show can find a way to shoe-horn Mark Paul-Gosselaar, Beau Bridges, Heather Locklear and Malcom McDowell into the same office, I can find a way to relate Nick Franklin to Yasiel Puig. Hey, they’re both hot young things that deserve a thorough brief directed at those in redraft or shallow keeper leagues. Done!

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Over the winter, we went through every team’s roster in our Depth Chart Discussions. The Dodgers outfield chart was done very early on, before camp had even really begun to get rolling, and so the focus there was as you’d expect it to be. Would Andre Ethier be a platoon outfielder? What could you expect from Matt Kemp, coming off shoulder surgery? Would Carl Crawford even make it back at all?

Valid questions, each and every one, but two full months into the season, they seem now laughably simplistic. Crawford, of all people, has been durable and productive. Ethier has been at odds with manager Don Mattingly. Kemp has been atrocious and is now injured, and all of a sudden Scott Van Slyke and Joc Pederson are names to know just as much as Yasiel Puig.

So with all that’s happened, let’s reset this mess and get you all up to speed, because there’s value to be had here. Read the rest of this entry »