Labor Day is officially behind us, and that means the fantasy season is beginning to wind down. This week, we’ll take a look at two Mets — one a defensive standout who’s been contributing with the bat lately, the other a newcomer to The Show — who could offer assistance to owners in NL-only leagues.
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Earlier this week, Jeff Zimmerman presented Early 2015 Hitter Projections using Steamer and/or ZIPS averaged ROS projections. The main contingency at this time: all values are set to 600 plate appearances. If I had all the time in the world, I would go through the list and manually adjust the PA based on lineup position, career PA/G, etc, but I’m not that much of a Mensch.
The next day, Mike Podhorzer highlighted some of the surprises ranked in the top 30. Again the 600 PA contingency is clear as Rajai Davis, Jarrod Dyson and Corey Dickerson make the list although if Dickerson doesn’t get platooned, I (and Mike) think he’ll surpass expectations. His splits page tells us there is no good reason to platoon him.
In Mike’s intro, he also referenced that there is no adjustment for position in Jeff’s SGP rankings. That’s where this post comes in.
Joc Pederson has had one heck of a 2014. The center fielder has blown away the already-high expectations placed before him this year, leading all of Triple-A in home runs, on-base percentage, on-base plus slugging, walks and runs scored. To be fair, his spot atop the list in some of those categories is partially thanks to the simple fact that he’s been in Triple-A all season — and playing half his games in the bandbox at Albuquerque — but it’s still pretty astounding stuff.
All told, Pederson owns a .304/.434/.590 slash, with 33 homers and 30 steals, making him the first player with a 30/30 season in the Pacific Coast League since Frank Demaree accomplished the feat way back in 1934. He is also the first player this author knows of who has given away his car as a ballpark promotion.
After being traded, changing leagues and posting his worst major league season of his career, a reasonable person may ask why on earth I’d be buying Allen Craig. His current .237/.291/.348 equates to a brutal 81 wRC+ and he’s still on the disabled list to boot. We can address the DL issue first, as the Boston Red Sox may activate him as soon as Friday. With that out of the way, on to the (potentially over the top) optimism!
The 30-year-old first baseman/outfielder’s rate stats are clearly way off, however many of his peripherals appear to be in line with his career averages.
| K% | BB% | Swing% | Contact% | SwStr% | BABIP | GB% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 6.5% | 19.4% | 46.3% | 84.1% | 7.2% | .281 | 56.3% |
| Career | 7% | 18.3% | 45.6% | 82.8% | 7.7% | .330 | 46.6% |
This is the “who????” edition of the deep league waiver wire as I dig deep to uncover hidden gems that could contribute in your mono leagues. If you need speed, you have come to the right place.
As my first RotoGraphs post, I dwelled way too long on this title: Coresistency Dickerson? Too corny. Corey Dickersplits? Too dirty. In any case, you can see from any of these titles where I’m going.
As the season winds down, I’m in trade mode, and I keep finding myself in trade discussions with Corey Dickerson owners. I am a win-now type of guy and therefore am all-in on trading prospects for sure-things when it comes to dynasty/keeper leagues. Dickerson was in an interesting boat for me: Do I buy? In the one league I have him, do I sell? While I would love to see him in front of or behind Carlos Gonzalez, Troy Tulowitzki and Nolan Arenado on a more consistent basis (he’s full-time now, but the trio is rarely healthy), his Splits Page has me convinced.
Usually I stroll down the splits page and get excited by some segments and turned off by others, but I was satisfied throughout…
I got my first opportunity to see Jorge Soler in person last Friday, and to say that he was impressive would be a colossal understatement. I’d read the scouting reports, watched him on MiLB.tv, etc. But Soler is one of those guys that you just can’t really prepare yourself for. He’s so insanely talented that it would be easy to get lost in superlatives while merely naming off his attributes.
The 22-year-old Soler has been even better than Javier Baez (my thoughts on him here) or Kris Bryant (write-up on him here) this season. Sure, Bryant and Baez have put up video-game numbers of their own, but what Soler has managed to accomplish through 43 games — split between Double-A and Triple-A — is simply astounding. Through 156 plate appearances (he’s missed time with hamstring injuries), Soler is hitting an outrageous .346/.442/.746. In addition to his 11 homers, Soler has hit more doubles (17) than singles (16).
For those of you in the race at this point of the season it is a lovely yet frustrating time. In an attempt to help ease your burden of decision making I present two American League outfielders who are somewhat largely available and can help your team in various ways. The percentages next to the websites represent the ownership rate, not their availability.
Dexter Fowler — 15% ESPN/32% Yahoo! 44%/CBS
The Houston Astros activated Fowler from the 15-day disabled list today after missing time with an intercostal strain. He is expected to return to the lineup later today and should reclaim his spot at the top of the order. For fellow on-base percentage league players, Fowler is manna from BB% heaven. His career 12.5% walk rate helps drive his career .366 OBP. Fowler isn’t known for his power however his OBP and to a lesser extent his batting average should make him a playable fourth/fifth outfielder in all but the shallowest of leagues. One note is Fowler isn’t running as often as he has in previous seasons. Whether the muscle strain prevented him from sliding into bases is a mystery, though it would make sense as I wouldn’t want to dive or slide with an injury. Anecdotal thoughts aside, the lack of the steals doesn’t seem to be a team philosophy as the Astros’ 85 steals is fifth most in baseball. Context is key of course and the team’s 24 CS mean they’ve attempted 109 steals on the year, seventh most in the league. Even without the steals Fowler is an immensely useful player, one who I was far too low on in the early goings. Pick him up to give yourself a boost in the rate stats.
Jarrod Dyson — 4% ESPN/3% Yahoo!/10% CBS
Though he isn’t a full time starter, Dyson brings value to your fantasy team with his legs. His 26 steals are third most in the AL and he has appeared in just 86 games this season. On top of his running game, Dyson has contributed at the plate, hitting a respectable .286/.335/.342 in 218 plate appearances. A .344 BABIP has certainly helped inflate his AVG, however his 63.1% ground ball rate is the second highest in the AL (minimum 200 PAs). Grounders go for hits at a higher rate than fly balls — but less often for extra base hits — and Dyson has been burning worms at an impressive clip. Dyson should find himself in the lineup most days where the Kansas City Royals are up against a right-handed pitcher, but it isn’t a full blown platoon situation just yet. Lorenzo Cain is hitting at a solid rate against lefties and righties, though he has been getting more starts in right field recently. Dyson has started 50 games in center against Cain’s 63 starts there. Dyson has an additional 25 appearances in CF, meaning the Royals are using him as a late inning pinch runner/defensive sub type player. He can still accrue value in a part time role, he’ll just require you to pay that much more attention to your daily lineups.
One thing we know about strikeout and contact rate is that the stats stabilize quickly. In other words, those stats tell us more about future work in those categories quicker than other stats. But players make changes all the time, and it’s not just the first month of the season that we care about.
So who’s changed the most in the last month? Let’s look at the biggest differences in contact rate over the last month, and it what might tell us about these relevant players.
In 1948, Preston Tucker introduced the Tucker Sedan, a revolutionary automobile that innovated several safety features still in use today. The Tucker 48 posed a threat to the major automobile manufacturers of the time, and the company fell into bankruptcy amidst smear campaigns and a lengthy SEC trial, in which Tucker was acquitted on all counts. His story inspired the 1988 Francis Ford Coppola film Tucker: The Man and His Dream, which is an okay movie. Jeff Bridges is really good as Tucker, but it’s a pretty cheesy flick.
In 2014, Preston Tucker (no relation, at least that I know of) is an outfielder in the Astros’ system. Largely overlooked, thanks to Houston’s crazy-deep farm system, Tucker didn’t make a whole lot of top prospects lists this year, but he still got enough attention to slide in at No. 21 on SB Nation’s organizational consensus top prospect list.
