It’s easy to be tempted to overreact to the small sample size of strong performances very early in the season. Like many fantasy pundits before me, I’ll continue the tradition of preaching patience with your best players and your preseason evaluations. That doesn’t mean, however, that you should be sitting on your hands. Three things I keep tabs on especially closely in the first few weeks of the season are PITCHf/x data, lineup constructions and playing time distribution. Colleague Scott Spratt tackled fastball leaders in the bullpen and Jeff Sullivan discussed velocity in depth relating to King Felix’s first start. I wont’ tackle PITCHf/x data in this piece — as others have done so already — but I will look at a few playing time situations that might be sorting themselves out as well as a few players whose stock is on the rise as a result of their lineup spot.

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Drafts are over and the season is officially here. We are looking at the teams we drafted with pride, believing that this will be our year. We have forgotten about those poor souls that were left behind. Yes, I am talking about the undrafted players. The guys that sit on our waiver wires untouched, hoping for a chance to enter our lineups. They are praying that an owner may sign them to a deal. Read the rest of this entry »

Oh, man. Ohhhhhhhhhhhhhh, man. IT’S BASEBALL SEASON. Woo! We survived the offseason. We made it. Thank you for joining me here today.

Unfortunately, with only one (and a half-ish) day(s) of baseball under our elastic baseball belts, I can only conduct as much analysis as the smallest of small samples will let me. Not unfortunately, fantasy owners freak out during the first couple of weeks of the baseball. I’m no psychologist, but dang, do owners overreact. You don’t see these kinds of overreactions during the season — however many months of baseball has already been played, and changes to players’ stat lines shift much more slowly in August than April.

In other words, April is incredibly noisy. There’s gotta be a signal in there, yeah? I’ll serve up names of National League outfielders who had particularly good first games of 2016, and I’ll tell you over which players with higher ownership rates (using Yahoo! percentages, arbitrarily) I’d rather own them. It could be controversial, but hey.

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You can’t please everyone. Not that being a fantasy baseball analyst is like being the president, but being a fantasy baseball analyst is like being the president. You can never make everyone happy, and Eno Sarris occasionally asks you for foreign policy recommendations. Worse, the people who are happy don’t vocalize their contentment while the people who are pissed are more than happy to let you know. Such is the nature of the beast.

It’s all good, though. This is my second year ranking National League outfielders, and you know what? I’m ready. My skin is a little thicker, my stomach a little rounder. It’s a new year, new me. Put it on a shirt!

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At every level, Preston Tucker has hit.

From winning Freshman Hitter of the Year at the University of Florida to setting school returns in total hits to leading the Houston Astros organization in hits during his first full minor league season to producing over half a rookie season in 2015, Tucker has hit everywhere he’s gone. At no stop in the minor leagues did he produce below-average results at the dish, and he’s consistently – and quickly – adjusted to each new level.

Each season, he’s begun the year repeating his prior level, then advanced. After his successful major-league debut, the pattern calls for Tucker to repeat with the Astros, then ascend to some yet-to-be-seen level beyond MLB, perhaps beyond baseball. But not even Tucker, who’s hit everywhere he’s gone despite middling prospect status, can hit from the bench.
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Here we go! It is time for the first installment of America’s favorite game: AL Outfielder Tiers! This is my first attempt at doing this, so while I don’t expect any sympathy, please don’t crush my hopes and spirit if I forget a name. Remember, ranks and tiers tend to be subjective and we are in this together for the next six to seven months. Read the rest of this entry »

It’s been a long day without you, my friend. And I’ll tell you all about it when I own you again.

We’ve come along way from where we began with Carl Crawford as a fantasy baseball asset. Once one of the premiere outfielders in the game thanks to double-digit power, a .300 average, and 50-steal wheels, Crawford’s fallen on harder times since he landed with the Boston Red Sox in 2011. This is further proof that the Red Sox are evil and you should divest all shares of David Price.

Speed and defense don’t always age gracefully into a player’s 30s, and now 34, Crawford’s best days are decidedly behind him. But someone has to eat up the plate appearances that Andre Ethier, out 10-to-14 weeks with a fractured right tibia, is abandoning in the Los Angeles Dodgers’ outfield.

It’s crazy to think, but a guy who once had his fantasy value debated against that of Moises Alou or Gary Sheffield may now be relevant once again.
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As part of my warm-up for my long run each weekend, I make sure to get a fire tweet off before hitting the road. It’s a good way to have the brain let the body know that it’s time to get that money.

To wit:

Decision technically isn’t official but it might as well be: Josh Donaldson will hit with 1 out and the bases empty in 70% of 1st innings.

— Blake Murphy (@BlakeMurphyODC) March 19, 2016

That, in response to this:

The decision technically isn’t official but it might as well be. Kevin Pillar will open the year as the #BlueJays leadoff hitter.

— Gregor Chisholm (@gregorMLB) March 19, 2016

OK, so it wasn’t a fire tweet. We all have off days. But the unofficial-official determination that Kevin Pillar will bat lead off for the Toronto Blue Jays is a little bit disappointing, and it stands to have an impact not just on his own value but the value of those around him in the lineup.
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Making bold predictions is one of my favorite activities in advance of an upcoming baseball season. It allows me — and the other writers partaking in the bold predictions series — to identify the bandwagons we’re on (or perhaps even driving). While now is the time of fluffy stories about players being in the best shape of their lives and poised for career years, not all is rainbows and butterflies. Below, you’ll find a few not so friendly bold predictions, too.

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I present to you my ten bold predictions for this upcoming season. I’ve placed these items in order of increasing boldness to give you some sense of how likely I think these things are to occur, in hopes that they’re more actionable. The items toward the top of the list are more likely to happen but perhaps not as bold… But I get pretty far out there by the end.

10. Gerardo Parra finishes the year as a top 25 OF. I feel as though this is cheating. Not bold enough. After all, he finished as the 3oth best OF last year (by my calculations). And yet, he’s being drafted as the 53rd OF this season. The issue here may be the projected platoon role he’s in. But is Ryan Raburn really going to take a lot of playing time from him? And with the possibility of Carlos Gonzalez being traded, there are other paths to a full-time role.

In the days of declining batting averages and diminishing stolen bases, a simple 12 HR, 12 SB, and .290 season (his Steamer projection) really adds up in value. Not to mention the move to Colorado offers hope for even more offense. It seems like Parra is being drafted as the former utility outfielder he was with Arizona. He wasn’t sexy. Nobody wanted him. Hopefully putting him in the top 25 crosses the bold threshold.

9. Jose Altuve finishes the year as a top five hitter. Is that bold? I’m not sure. He finished last year as the 13th highest earning hitter and is being drafted as the tenth hitter heading into 2016. Projecting him to outproduce all of Anthony Rizzo, Giancarlo Stanton, Nolan Arenado, Manny Machado, and Carlos Correa to reach the top five does feel bold-ish. One of my favorite facts about Altuve is that he’s still just 25 years old. I suspect that many believe him to be older than he is because he’s been around for nearly four and a half MLB seasons. Why can’t he have a little more growth in him? Read the rest of this entry »