This Grady Sizemore kid is pretty good. And he might get even better.

Sizemore is going to be 26 years old next season – in other words, he’s just now beginning to enter his prime. That’s a scary thought for the rest of the American League, and a thought that you should keep in mind in your draft: Grady isn’t even in his prime yet.

Sizemore has managed to improve in a few aspects of his game every season he’s been in the majors. In his first full season in 2005, he had an excellent season (especially for a 22-year old!), but he hit fly balls only 31% of the time and was caught stealing 31% of the time. He also only walked in 7.5% of his plate appearances.

In 2006, Sizemore stopped getting caught stealing as often and walked 10.6% of the time. He also hit fly balls on 46.9% of his balls in play. However, he only stole 22 bases and struck out 23.4% of the time.

In 2007, Sizemore again upped his walk rate by over 3%, raising it to 13.9%. He also continued his efficient thievery on the base paths, and stole more often – he stole 33 bases in 43 attempts. He once again continued to strike out at a high rate, and he lost a few homers (he hit only 24).

In 2008, Sizemore’s skills really began to come together. Sizemore stole 38 bases while only getting caught five times. He maintained a walk rate over 13%, but reduced his strikeout rate from 24.7% to 20.5%. He also topped 30 homers for the first time in his career, smacking 33 long balls. Sizemore had always been a patient hitter, but in 2008 he swung at the lowest percentage of pitches in his career, only 41.8%. He also posted the highest contact rate of his career, all while maintaining his high walk rate and improving his power.

What does this mean for the future? Well, I’m admittedly bullish (full disclosure: I was born and raised in Cleveland and remain an Indians fan), but I think I have just cause: Grady Sizemore has been great throughout his career, he’s entering his prime, and his statistical track record suggests that he’s just now starting to put it all together.

Sizemore stole the most bases of his career last year (and was successful in 88% of his attempts) and hit the most homers of his career. He also struck out at the lowest rate of his career while maintaining a walk rate of over 13%. He continued to be selective at the plate, and made more contact when he did choose to swing. The only bad part of his 2008 campaign was his relatively low batting average – .268, to be exact. It seems counterintuitive that his BA would fall in a year in which he improved strikeout rate. Sure enough, Sizemore’s BABIP last year was a career-low .291 – this after posting BABIPs of .334, .342, and .335 over the last three years. And for those wondering, Sizemore’s 19.4% line-drive percentage was only a little lower than his career LD of 21%.

If Sizemore is able to post the same strikeout and walk rates in 2009 as he did in 2008, his batting average is likely to rise thanks to an improved BABIP. But as we know, Sizemore may not simply post the same stats again. He’s managed to improve in one or two aspects of his game virtually every season in the majors, and I’ll say it again: he’s just now entering his prime.

While it’s possible that Sizemore could experience some backslide in 2009, it’s far more likely that Sizemore will maintain the gains he’s made: namely, increased power, increased efficiency on the basepaths, and a reduced strikeout rate – and it’s certainly possible that he’ll further improve in some area as well. For example, although he has made strides in his hitting against left-handed pitching, Sizemore’s line against lefties in 2008 was a mere .224/.347/.388. If Sizemore improves his batting average and/or slugging percentage against lefties – even a little – his overall line will receive a boost.

Grady Sizemore is clearly a first round pick in most drafts. Just keep in mind: as good as he was in 2008, he has a legitimate chance to be even better in 2009.

The Houston Astros farm system has devolved into something of a wasteland in recent years. In an effort to infuse as much talent as possible into the major league roster, the Astros have been rather frugal in the amateur draft and the international player market. Surrendering first and second-round picks and then failing to sign the club’s third and fourth-rounders in 2007 certainly did not help matters, either. In selling long-term relevance for short-term mediocrity, Houston has compiled a core of thirty-something players that posted a 77-84 Pythagorean Record this past season.

One product of Houston’s barren player development outlet that figured to bear fruit was Hunter Pence. Plucked out of the University of Texas-Arlington in the 2nd round of the 2004 draft, Pence quickly established himself as Houston’s most advanced batting prospect. The gangly 6-4, 210 pounder compiled an impressive .303/.376/.554 minor league line, drawing walks at a healthy clip (11.7 BB%) while keeping his strikeouts in check (19.2 K%). Rated by Baseball America as Houston’s brightest prospect, Pence made his debut in 2007 at the age of 24.

Pence’s first taste of the big leagues looked like a smashing success, as he raked to the tune of .322/.360/.539, bopping 17 home runs and posting a .217 Isolated Power (ISO) number. His 2.16 WPA/LI ranked in the top 20 among all outfielders. There were some cracks in the armor, however, as Pence’s 5.4 BB% left something to be desired and his Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP) was an astronomical .378. Given his 19.4% line drive rate (LD%), his expected BABIP was much lower, at .314. Taking some of those extra duck snorts out of Pence’s line gives him a much less impressive .258/.296/.472 showing.

Perhaps we should have known that Pence would be in for a down season in 2008. After all, how many all-star star seasons start with a guy running straight through a glass door? Pence came pretty close to matching his adjusted 2007 line, batting .269/.318/.466. His walk rate improved ever so slightly (6.3 BB%) and his strikeout rate matched his 2007 mark (20.8%), but he didn’t have near the same good fortune on balls in play (.303 BABIP). And, troublingly, Pence failed to hit the ball with authority, posting a feeble 13.9 LD%. That figure ranked dead-last among all qualified batters. Pence’s WPA/LI fell over two wins, to -0.03.

Though Pence ostensibly improved his plate discipline, the underlying numbers suggest that he actually took a slight step backward. His Outside Swing Percentage (O-Swing%) climbed from 29.8% in ’07 to 31.1%, and his percentage of pitches swung at within the strike zone (Z-Swing%) fell from 75.3% to 71.5%. Swinging at more balls and taking more strikes: that’s a recipe for quick outs.

Pitchers are well aware of Pence’s proclivity to expand his strike zone. The 25 year-old saw the lowest percentage of fastballs in the majors, getting a heater just 49.8% of the time in 2008. Instead of giving him something straight, most hurlers fed Pence a steady diet of sliders, hoping to coax a misguided swing out of him. Pence got a slider 28.3% of the time in 2008, also the highest rate in the majors and nearly four percent higher than second-place Dan Uggla (24.7%). As the scouting reports began to circulate, pitchers noticed Pence’s tendency to chase the hard breaking ball and exploited it.

Pitchers have clearly found a weakness in Pence’s approach, and will continue to throw sliders aplenty until he proves that he can show restraint and avoid the temptation to go fishing outside of the strike zone. If Pence wants to improve his sliding production, he’s going to have to lay off of the slider (and avoid those tricky sliding doors, of course).

If you do a couple of things really well, people will trip all over themselves to praise you but if you do everything well and nothing spectacular, people will underrate you. Let’s take a quick look at Ryan Howard and Carlos Beltran. Howard gives you HRs and RBIs and people drool over those numbers. There have been 2009 mock drafts with Howard going in the first round despite being the 18th-best fantasy hitter in 2008.

Meanwhile, Beltran contributes in five categories but is no threat to finish in the top three in any of them. He’s a late second round pick in the same mocks, even though he was the 10th-best fantasy hitter last year, according to the RotoTimes Player Rater. And it’s easy to see why. In 2004, he nearly went 40-40, missing by two home runs. Last year Beltran went 27-25 and simply did not have the sexy numbers.

The decline in steals is not a great shock, as Beltran is in his early 30s now. But what happened to the power? How does a guy who hit 41 home runs in 2006 manage just 27 in 2008, despite nearly 100 more at-bats (606-510)? Let’s look at this graphically.

As the preceding graph shows, Beltran has undergone a steep decline in his FB% (the blue line) in the past few years. Also, his HR/FB rate has dropped noticeably, too. However, his FB% is not out of line with what he’s done previously. A 13 percent drop in two years seems extreme, but Beltran’s 2008 rate fits in perfectly with his marks from 2002 and 2003.

Beltran’s BABIP, SLG and ISO were all within just a few points of his lifetime marks in 2008. And just to reiterate a point made earlier, Beltran was the 10th-best fantasy hitter last year. It is counter-productive to obsess about his declining power when Beltran is simply one of the safest and most reliable fantasy hitters available.

In 2006, Beltran was the 13th-best fantasy hitter. Then in 2007 he ranked 18th. If you are drafting in the middle of the second round and Beltran is available, it would be a mistake to bypass him. He is very durable, his established rate of production puts him at the top of the second round and there is always the slight chance he returns to 40-homer levels and exceeds expectations.

Perhaps the most pejorative term in scouting parlance is “Quad-A.” It’s a term loosely applied to player who can dominate in the Pacific Coast League or the International League, but just doesn’t possess the skills to thrive at the highest level of competition.

Coming into the 2008 season, Rangers outfielder Nelson Cruz appeared to fit the label to a T. The 6-3, 230 pounder (who also toiled in the Mets and Athletics farm systems) was acquired along with Carlos Lee as part of a 2006 deadline deal with the Brewers that shipped Francisco Cordero, Kevin Mench, Laynce Nix and Julian Cordero to Milwaukee. Cruz creamed the ball at AAA, but he fell flat on his face in two stints with the Rangers in 2006 and 2007:

2006

AAA (Brewers): .302/.373/.528, 10.2 BB%, 27 K%, .226 ISO in 371 AB
Rangers: .223/.261/.385, 5.1 BB%, 24.6 K%, .162 ISO in 130 AB

2007

AAA (Rangers): .352/.426/.698, 11.5 BB%, 21 K%, .346 ISO in 162 AB
Rangers: .235/.287/.384, 6.4 BB%, 28.3 K%, .150 ISO in 307 AB

Cruz looked like the classic high-power, low-contact slugger that could bash in the PCL but couldn’t cut it in the majors. At 26 and with two failed opportunities to establish himself, Cruz looked destined to ride the AAA bus circuit for years to come.

In 2008, Cruz decided to turn into Oklahoma’s answer to Barry Bonds, hitting a scorching .342/.426/.695 in 383 AB at AAA, with a 12.8 BB% and a 22.7 K%. But, unlike the previous years, Cruz continued to murder the ball upon his recall to Texas. In 115 AB, he batted .330/.421/.609, belting 7 home runs. He drew walks at a healthy clip (12.9 BB%) while striking out in about one quarter of his at-bats (24.3%). So, has Cruz broken out?

No. Sure, Cruz’s AAA line was legitimately impressive, but we’re talking about a 28 year-old whose skill set remains the same as it was entering the year: impressive power, but just decent plate patience and lofty strikeout rates. His small-sample mashing might engender lofty expectations, but it’s important to keep the big picture in mind. Cruz had a .388 average on balls in play, a very high number that will regress. Also, the chances of a guy striking out so often hitting .330 are essentially zero.

In 557 career major league at-bats (roughly a year’s worth of playing time), Cruz is a .251/.312/.431 hitter, with 7.8% walk rate and a 26.4% K rate. For 2009, Marcel projects a .258/.324/.435 line. Expecting something along those lines seems reasonable. However, that’s a level of production that you probably want to shoot higher than for your lineup. Cruz has his uses on a major league roster as a power bat, but keep in mind that he’s a 28 year-old minor league slugger, not a hot young prospect. Don’t be fooled by that small sample size.

If you like your baseball careers unpredictable, than you will love Jose Guillen. The Pirates made him a full-time starter at the age of 21 and he looked overmatched. And then he regressed. After several years of irrelevance, Guillen bounced back with one of the most improbable years ever in 2003 when he put up an OPS+ of 142. Since then he’s posted three fairly productive seasons, one injury-marred campaign and last year’s mediocre effort.

In 2008, Guillen had three months where he batted .308 or better and three months where he hit .212 or worse. He had a 42-game stretch where he batted .176/.234/.294 but then rebounded to post an .865 OPS in his final 108 plate appearances.

The one thing that has remained constant throughout his career is Guillen’s refusal to take many walks. Last year his BB% was a dismal 3.7 percent, which amazingly only tied him for the seventh-lowest mark in the majors. It was the lowest rate in his career since his age 22 season in 1998. Not surprisingly, Guillen ranked sixth in MLB in F-Strike% (63.8%) and 24th in O-Swing % (31.6%).

But despite all those flaws, Guillen is still someone to keep tabs on during your draft. Even with last year’s disappointing numbers, he still put up 20 home runs and 97 RBIs. In his last five full seasons, Guillen has averaged 25 home runs and 92 RBIs. Those numbers alone make him a bottom-of-your-roster type guy.

The key for Guillen is his batting average. Last year his fantasy value was dragged down by his .264 average. But in 2007 he hit .290 and when you recall that he rarely walks, that becomes an AB-heavy .290, which helped make him a $20 player.

The perception is that Guillen is old and that he’s a malcontent. But while he’s been around forever, next year will be his age 33 season. And while he has worn out his welcome in several cities, managers will keep writing him in the lineup as long as he’s productive.

Guillen is an ideal late round pick. If his average rebounds (last year he had a 38-point BABIP drop) he is a plus player in three categories and an easy guy to ride during one of his frequent hot streaks. And if it doesn’t, he becomes an easy guy to cut when the 2009 Cliff Lee presents himself.

Outfielder Jeremy Hermida was the object of scouting and sabermetric admiration as his climbed up the Florida Marlins’ farm system. With a silky-smooth left-handed swing and tremendous plate discipline, Hermida frequently adorned top prospect lists from Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus. In fact, BA ranked the 6-3, 210 pounder as the 4th-best prospect in the minors in 2006, with BP valuing him as the 2nd-best talent down on the farm. His .284/.398/.436 career minor league line left something to be desired in the power department, but Hermida appeared to answer those questions with a monster .293/.457/.518 showing at AA Carolina in 2005.

Fresh off of smoking the Southern League, Hermida would have a scalding cup of coffee with the Marlins to end the ’05 season, batting .293/.383/.634 in 47 PA. Baseball Prospectus 2006 was smitten, writing that “if he stops he is he’s going to be a fine player, but if he develops along the normal curve he could be Bondsian.” Talk about high praise.

Despite the hype, 2006 would actually turn out to be something of a lost season for Hermida. He battled a hip flexor injury and never seemed fully healthy, batting just .251/.332/.368 in 348 PA. Hermida drew walks at a 9.7% clip, but without power (.117 Isolated Power) and with a rather high strikeout rate (22.8 K%). Still, he was just 22 years of age, and figured to improve significantly once he was healed up.

Hermida’s 2007 campaign went far more smoothly, as he hit a robust .296/.369/.501. His ISO jumped all the way up to .205, and he retained a solid walk rate, drawing a free pass 9.9% of the time. However, Hermida’s K rate did climb to 24.5%, and his .356 BABIP was pretty high. Given Hermida’s line drive rate (20.7%), we would have expected his BABIP to come in around .327 (the formula for expected BABIP is LD% + .120; .207 + .120= .327). If we take that into account, his line “should” have been about .267/.340/.472. That took some of the air out of Hermida’s season, but that still served as a significant improvement over the previous year’s work.

As a 24 year old in 2008, Hermida figured to build upon his ’07 showing, perhaps making good on the promise that his former top prospect status entailed. Instead, he took a step backward. Hermida wasn’t terrible, mind you, but his .249/.323/.406 line was roundly mediocre. The drop in his batting average was expected (when you whiff that often, you’re not going to hit .300 for an extended period of time), but his walk rate dipped to 8.7% and his ISO fell down to .157, basically splitting the difference between his punchless 2006 and powerful 2007. His already-high strikeout rate climbed to 27.5% as well.

Perhaps the most troubling aspect of Hermida’s down year was the continued erosion of his once-pristine strike-zone judgment. Noted for his take-and-rake style in the minors, Hermida has progressively become more liberal in terms of chasing bad balls out of the strike zone:

Hermida’s Outside Swing Percentage (O-Swing%), 2006-2008

2006: 19%
2007: 22.2%
2008: 27.8%

In addition to chasing more pitches out of the zone, Hermida also swung at fewer strikes this past season. His Z-Swing% dipped from 64.2% in 2007 to 59.6% in 2008. As he is getting older, Hermida is swinging at more balls and taking more strikes. That’s an inauspicious combination.

So, just what sort of player is Jeremy Hermida? Is he the Brian Giles clone that his minor league dossier suggests, or is he going to continue to disappoint? Baseball Prospectus 2008 offered an interesting (and insidious) possible career path for Hermida. Per PECOTA, Hermida’s most comparable player is Ben Grieve. For those of you who don’t remember, Grieve was a another big, left-handed batter who received plenty of prospect love for his patient approach. However, Grieve’s career quickly faded to black after he won the 1998 AL Rookie of the Year Award, as prohibitively high strikeout rates and mid-range power got the best of him. There are a number of similarities between Hermida and Grieve:

Jeremy Hermida

HT: 6-3 WT: 210
Career Minor League Line: .284/.398/.436, 18.5 BB%, 22K%, .152 ISO
Major League Line: .267/.342/.436, 9.5 BB%, 25.4 K%, .170 ISO

Ben Grieve

HT: 6-4 WT: 230
Career Minor League Line: .302/.407/.484, 16.9BB%, 19.8K%, .182 ISO
Major League Line: .269/.367/.442, 12.7 BB%, 24.4K%, .173 ISO

I know that it’s probably a little unfair to compare Hermida (25 in January) and his major league line thus far to Grieve’s entire line of work in the big leagues, but Grieve’s career was essentially over by the time he was 26.

None of this is to say that Hermida’s career is doomed; this is just one possible path for his development. Still, there are a lot of striking similarities between the two players, and the Marcel projection system does not foresee much of any improvement, forecasting a mild .271/.348/.440 line for 2009. Fantasy owners will want to use caution regarding Hermida, lest they suffer a Griev(e)ous fate as another top prospect falls short of expectations.

Padres prospect Chase Headley made his major league debut in 2008, hitting .269/.337/.420 with nine homers in 331 at bats. What can we expect in 2009?

Headley struck out in 31% of his at bats with the Padres – a lofty number for a guy who only hit nine homers. In the minor leagues Headley struck out a lot as well – he Ked in 25% of his at bats in triple-A this year, and 26% of his at bats in double-A in 2007. Furthermore, Headley will be 25 years old in May; he’s young, but he’s not that young. Thus, while it’s reasonable to expect some improvement from Headley in the strikeout department, all signs suggest that he will strike out a lot next year, too.

All of those strikeouts will keep his batting average down, but at least Headley hits the ball hard when he does make contact. His 24.7% line drive percentage supports his .369 BABIP; furthermore, his minor league track record suggests that Headley will continue to his a lot of line drives and have a high BABIP: his LD% in triple-A this year was 21.9%, and in double-A last year it was 23.8%.

Thus, while the high amount of strikeouts prevent Headley from having a high batting average, his line-drive percentage should keep his BA from falling too low. The .269 average he posted in 2008 seems like a reasonable approximation of what to expect going forward – perhaps Headley will strike out a little less often in the future, but this may be negated by a (somewhat small) drop in his LD%, as few hitters can sustain an LD% over 24%.

Headley displayed tremendous power over the last two seasons in the minors, slugging .576 in double-A in 2007 and following it up with a .556 SLG in triple-A in 2008. However, Headley’s isolated power was not as impressive as you might expect (.249 and .251); rather, it seems that while Headley did indeed hit for a lot of power, much of his high SLG was inflated by a high batting average – and remember, that high batting average is unlikely to continue in the majors.

Thus, while Headley does possess power, his minor league track record may overstate just how much power he has. Furthermore, Headley plays for the San Diego Padres, which means that he has to play half of his home games in PETCO Park. PETCO, as you probably know, absolutely kills homers, hurts doubles, is relatively neutral on singles, and inflates triples. Judging from what we know about Headley, PETCO seems like it will hurt him even more than it might hurt another player – Headley won’t put too many balls in play, and will lose a tremendous amount of homers (and doubles, not that fantasy players care too much about them) thanks to his home park.

Sure enough, in his half-season with the Padres in 2008, Headley hit .301/.361/.470 with five homers on the road, but only .230/.307/.358 with four homers at home. Headley might be worth platooning if you are able to couple him with another decent 3B; however, that may be a waste of a valuable roster spot that would be better served by simply playing Headley’s platoon partner full-time.

If there’s one area in which Headley could improve, it’s by hitting more fly balls. Only 37% of his balls in play were fly balls in 2008 – if he can up this number, he should be able to hit more homers. However, in the minors his fly ball rate fluctuated between 39% and 44%, suggesting that while Headley may be able to improve somewhat, it will take a dramatic improvement to get his fly ball rate up to 50% or so.

Finally, it looks like Headley is entrenched in left field, unless the Padres move Kevin Kouzmanoff. In fantasy baseball, Chase Headley the outfielder is even less valuable than Chase Headley the third baseman. If Headley regains (or retains) third base eligibility in your league, he will have slightly more value.

Chase Headley is a solid player, but don’t get too excited about him. He doesn’t appear to have that much power in the first place, and what power he does have is going to be sapped by PETCO Park. He’s worth drafting, but only a late-round flier. Let someone else overvalue him.

Brian Giles wasn’t supposed to be this good. A 17th-round selection by the Cleveland Indians all the way back in 1989, Giles was seen as a short, stocky kid without much “projection.” The El Cajon, California native was 5-10 on his tippy toes and had a frame that was already considered maxed out. In his early minor league career, Giles showed plate discipline beyond his years, but not a whole lot of power.

Upon reaching AAA, however, he turned into a hitting machine, getting on base at a .390+ clip and slugging 31 combined homers over the 1994 and 1995 seasons. Despite his keen batting eye (14.9 BB% in the minors), contact ability (13.8 K%) and burgeoning power, Giles never really got the opportunity to establish himself as a full-time player for the Indians. That was in no small part due to the absurd amount of outfield talent that flowed through Cleveland at the time (Manny Ramirez, Albert Belle, Kenny Lofton, David Justice). Giles posted a tasty .284/.391/.485 line in 857 AB for Cleveland between 1995 and 1998, but for that he was shown the door. Ten years ago today, Giles was shipped to Pittsburgh in exchange for LOOGY Ricardo Rincon in one of the most lopsided trades of the ’90’s.

Liberated in the ‘Burgh, Giles blossomed into an absolute force. Seeing his first full-time duty in 1999 at the age of 28, Giles posted a stunning .315/.418/.614 line, with 39 home runs. The good times would keep on rolling during his tenure with the Bucs. In fact, one could make an argument that Giles was one of the top 10 most valuable properties in the game during his time in Pittsburgh:

Giles’ WPA/LI, 1999-2003

1999: 6.31 (3rd in MLB)
2000: 6.05 (6th)
2001: 5.56 (12th)
2002: 6.81 (2nd)
2003: 2.95 (29th)

Upon being shipped to San Diego in July of 2003, Giles continued to compile impressive numbers, with a WPA/LI of 3.26 in 2004, 4.75 in 2005, and 1.71 in 2006. After a 0.56 WPA/LI mark in 2007, Giles bounced back to post a 2.52 figure in 2008. That 2008 performance ranked 15th among all outfielders.

While Giles’ power has been pared down by Petco Park’s cavernous dimensions, he retains perhaps the best strike-zone control of any player in the game today. The man with a career .404 OBP walked 13.5% of the time in 2008, and whiffed just 9.3%. Giles’ 17.4 Outside Swing Percentage (O-Swing%) was the 10th-lowest in the game, and by his standards, that was an ultra-aggressive season:

Giles’ O-Swing%, 2005-2008

2005: 8.5%
2006: 12.9%
2007: 14%
2008: 17.4%

When Giles does decide to fish at one out of the strike zone, there’s usually a good reason: he can make contact with the pitch. His 81.5 O-Contact% was the 6th-highest among all batters this past season. Interestingly, Giles has significantly increased his ability to put the bat on the ball on his outside swings as he has gotten older:

Giles’ Outside Contact Percentage (O-Contact%), 2005-2008:

2005: 63%
2006: 77.4%
2007: 73.8%
2008: 81.5%

When Giles decides to swing (which isn’t very often- his 39.9 Swing% was 13th-lowest in baseball), he almost never misses. His 92.8 Contact% was the best in baseball, and his contact percentage on pitches thrown in the strike zone (Z-Contact%) was second-best in the game at 96.2%.

Brian Giles will turn 38 in January, but he remains one of the most underappreciated talents in the game. He may no longer be the over-the-fence threat of his Pittsburgh days (part park effects, part father time), but Giles is coming off of a plenty useful .306/.398/.456 season, and the Bill James projection system forecasts a .280/.387/.435 line for 2009. If you want a player who knows the strike zone better than the man in blue behind him, then Brian Giles is your guy.

In 2007, Brewers right fielder Corey Hart appeared to establish himself as a championship-caliber player. The lanky, 6-6 Hart had long been considered one of Milwaukee’s best young talents, and in ’07 he put together an impressive .295/.353/.539 line in 566 PA. His walk rate remained low (6.7%, the same as 2006), but he upped his Isolated Power (ISO) from .186 in 2006 to .244 in 2007, a whopping 58 point increase. His 2.38 WPA/LI ranked 12th among all outfielders, and with 24 HR and 23 SB, he turned in a nifty 20/20 season. Just 26 heading into the 2008 season, Hart figured to build upon his breakout year.

Suffice it to say, that didn’t happen. Hart turned in a disappointing .268/.300/.459 line, with his ISO falling back to .191. His already tenuous walk rate dipped to 4.2%. Hart still turned in a 20/20 campaign (20 HR, 23 SB), but his WPA/LI fell by over two wins, down to 0.28 (the 20th-worst mark among qualified outfielders).

In 2008, Hart found himself behind in the count after the first pitch more than any other player in the game. Hart’s First Pitch Strike Percentage (F-Strike%) was an alarming 68.9%, nearly three percent higher than second-ranked Adam Jones. This wasn’t a one-year fluke, either: Hart’s F-Strike% has been over 60% in every major league season, pointing to an unrefined approach that often leaves him behind in the count before he can even blink. While most players show some improvement in their plate discipline as they gain big-league experience, Hart has progressively become more of a hacker:

Hart’s Outside Swing Percentage (O-Swing%), 2006-2008:

2006: 22.3%
2007: 25.7%
2008: 31.7%

As he’s gotten older, Hart has devolved from a guy with a relatively patient approach to a free-swinging mess. His overall Swing % has also increased rapidly: 45.1% in 2006, 50.3% in 2007, and 54.7% in 2008. That 2008 number was the fifth-highest in the game. Swinging that often is okay if you’re shoe top hitter Vladimir Guerrero (who swung at a league high 60.3% of pitches seen) and you can make contact with 70% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone, but Hart’s O-Contact% was a mild 54.5%, 14th-lowest among outfielders.

It appears as though pitchers identified a weakness in Hart’s game this past season. During his promising 2007 season, Hart saw a fastball 58.6% of the time. In 2008, he saw a heater just 51.7%, the 6th-lowest rate among all hitters. In place of those heaters, Hart saw a heaping helping of sliders, as his slider percentage increased from 18.7% in ’07 to 23.5% in 2008. Among qualified batters, only Hunter Pence, Dan Uggla and Geovany Soto saw a higher percentage of slide-pieces.

The game plan against Hart last season, particularly during his execrable second half (.239/.263/.396), became simple: get ahead of him 0-1, and then feed him a steady diet of sliders, knowing full well that he would be tempted to chase them out of the zone. The Bill James projection system sees a rebound season in store for Hart (.286/.336/.496), but he’s going to have to show some restraint against those outside sliders, lest NL pitchers make quick work of him again in 2009.

After playing most of the 2007 season with a knee injury, Jason Bay saw his average draft position fall to 112.88 in 2008, according to Sportsline.com. And then Bay turned around and put up a top-25 hitting season, similar to what he did when healthy in 2005 and 2006. One of the steals of the 2008 draft, Bay will go much sooner than the 11th or 12th round this year.

Most of Bay’s numbers last year matched his career averages. The area that stands out is his FB%, with his numbers showing a steady increase the past few seasons. In 2005, it was 40.6 percent and by 2008 he posted a 46.0 percent flyball rate. Meanwhile, his HR/FB have fluctuated between 11.4 percent in his injury-plagued 2007 season to 18.8 percent in 2006. Last year it was 15 percent, which was below his career rate of 16.4 percent.

Bay hit well after his deadline deal to Boston, as he posted an .897 OPS after the trade. He even hit more flyballs (47.8 percent after the trade) but it resulted in fewer home runs. Bay had nine homers after the deal and six of those came on the road, which suggests that perhaps he had some issues with the Green Monster. It’s more likely a sample size issue and I think fantasy players should not lower their home run projections for him in any meaningful way.

Count on a healthy Bay to provide a .290-30-100 line with 100 runs and 10 steals. And that should be easily good enough to be a top-30 hitter and one of the top 15 outfielders. And if he continues to hit more flyballs and adapts to the Green Monster, a 35-40 HR season is not out of the question.