Magglio Ordonez has been one of the more consistent players in baseball over the last 10 years. When healthy you can generally pencil him in for a .300 average with 20+ HR and over 100 RBIs. After his monstrous 2007, he came back to earth last year posting his lowest HR and 2B totals in a full year since his first full season in 1998. Is age starting to catch up with the 35 year old OF?

None of his peripheral numbers seem to suggest any aging effects taking their toll. His swinging strike percentage remained around his career average. His batted-ball data was in line with his career averages as well. The only thing that really suffered was his HR/FB%. This might indicate some slowing of his bat, but one year of a downward trend is not something I would bank on. If his peripherals seem to imply that Magglio had another of his dependable, above-average seasons, what should we expect going forward?

I would expect more of the same. I highly doubt we will see Magglio revert to his 2007 ways, but if he’s healthy (which might be a feat for a 35 YO OF) he should post around a .300/.375/.490 line with 20+ homers and runs/RBIs to match. The one issue I have in drafting Ordonez is that people may still see him as the batting title winning Ordonez of 2007. In 5×5 leagues, I would likely slot him in around Andre Ethier, Raul Ibanez, or Brad Hawpe. I tend to be wary of older players, particularly in this post-steroid era. Magglio, though, has been a model of consistency, which bodes well for him going forward.

Carlos Quentin was one of the front runners to win the MVP Award last year before his season ended in September with a broken wrist. All indications are that his recovery has gone without a hitch and he is expected ready for Spring Training. Yet fantasy players are treating him cautiously, as Quentin’s ADP according to the latest Mock Draft Central rankings is 37.

After two unimpressive stints with the Diamondbacks, Quentin flourished last year in his first full season. Most significant was his 36 home runs in 480 at-bats. Wrist injuries frequently sap power, which is undoubtedly the main reason Quentin is slipping into the fourth and sometimes even fifth round in early mocks.

Quentin is an unusual hitter in that he rarely hits line drives. His 15.4 percent LD mark was the third lowest in the majors and contributed to his .280 BABIP. But his low-strikeout and high-HR numbers resulted in an AVG of .288, or eight points above his BABIP.

The move to Chicago agreed with Quentin last year. He hit 21 of his 36 homers at Comiskey Park. But he did well on the road, too, where he notched a .950 OPS.

Because he struggled in his first two seasons in the majors, it’s easy to forget the Quentin was a top prospect. What he did last season was better, but not out of line with what he produced in the minors. Following his 2005 season at Tucson, prospect maven John Sickels ranked him as the sixth-best position player in baseball and Baseball America had him 20th overall, one spot above Nick Markakis.

But it all comes back to the wrist injury. And before you point to Evan Longoria, here’s what Baseball Prospectus’ Will Carroll had to say: “Here’s the key on Longoria — he broke his ARM (distal tip of ulna), not his wrist. If you pointed to the area, we’d all use the common term of ‘wrist’ but it’s not anatomically so.”

So, caution is justified with Quentin. He will still be a worthwhile player to own, but he’s not a top three-round guy. And before you draft him in the fourth round, ask yourself if you wouldn’t be better off with Curtis Granderson, who will be a full year removed from a non-displaced fracture in his right middle finger.

Of the players likely to go in the first few picks, perhaps the hardest to forecast is Josh Hamilton. Over at Mock Draft Central, Hamilton has been picked as high as second and as low as 18, which is a pretty wide split. Let’s compare that to two other guys who have topped out as the second pick. Jose Reyes has not dropped below eighth and Grady Sizemore’s lowest position was 11th.

Now Hamilton as the second pick is probably a reach, but he is in a group of people to consider at the end of the first round and the beginning of the second. Some analysts think it is crazy to draft Hamilton on the first round when you can get Carlos Lee on the second. Others see the production that Hamilton delivered last year – .304-32-130-98-9 – in his first full season and see room for improvement.

Part of the problem with Hamilton is that so much of his value derives from that high RBI total. He was second in the majors last year and only a second-half slump kept him from posting even gaudier totals in the category. Hamilton had 61 RBIs the first two months of the season and only 26 combined in August and September.

Fantasy owners like HR, SB and AVG because for the most part, the players are in control of their numbers in these categories. Meanwhile, as Jim Rice can tell you, RBIs are dependent on opportunities. It sure helps when you have Wade Boggs and Dwight Evans (or Ian Kinsler and Michael Young) getting on base a ton for you to drive in.

Hamilton’s monster first half coincided nicely with Kinsler’s terrific start. Then when Kinsler faded and then got injured in the second half, Hamilton suffered with him. It was a rough August for Hamilton, but he hit great in September (.366/.443/.516) and still managed just 13 RBIs.

A look at Hamilton’s profile shows nothing outlandish. Yes, his BABIP was high at .339 but nothing to be overly concerned about given his line drive and ground ball tendencies. Hamilton does not hit a ton of fly balls (32.9%) but has a good rate of converting those into home runs (19.2%). The fly ball percentage is low and will probably keep him from ever contending for the HR crown. But the Ballpark in Arlington, where he hit 19 HR last year, should keep him a 30-HR player.

In fantasy football, it is very common to look to capitalize with a QB-WR combo to give yourself a nine, 10 or 12-point connection. This year fantasy baseball players might be wise to do the same with Hamilton and Kinsler. Now you just have to decide which one to draft first.

Shin-Soo Choo, once a top prospect for the Mariners, received the most playing time of his major league career for the Indians last year. In his first year back after having Tommy John surgery, he set the record for most hits in a season by a Korean-born player. Choo’s 98 hits eclipsed the mark of 86 set by Hee Seop Choi in 2004.

The knock on Choo is that he is a platoon player or fourth outfielder. But in 2008, the lefty hitting Choo posted a .286/.345/.455 line versus southpaws, albeit in 84 plate appearances. But considering how well he hits righties (.317/.413/.579 last year), Choo apparently has earned a full-time starting job as Spring Training approaches.

Grady Sizemore is a fixture in center for Cleveland and he will be flanked by Choo and Ben Francisco. But the big unknown is Matt LaPorta, the key player received by the Tribe in the C.C. Sabathia deal last summer. LaPorta was enjoying a standout season before suffering a concussion in the Olympics. He will most likely start the season in the minors but it would be no surprise if LaPorta was in the majors before September, with the big question of if he will be an outfielder or a first baseman.

Choo had a .373 BABIP last season, which would have tied for third in the majors if he had enough at-bats to qualify. But as fantastic as that was, it was in line with what he had done in previous stints in the majors. His lifetime mark in the category now sits at .369 in 509 at-bats.

While Choo may or may not be able to sustain a high BABIP the big question is what can we expect from him in the power department. Last year’s .240 ISO mark was well beyond anything he had posted previously, either in the majors or the minors. But a significant portion of that was from doubles, as he smacked 28 two-baggers in 317 at-bats.

Some might be concerned about his 16.1 percent HR/FB mark last year, but in the only other season in the majors where he had sizable playing time, Choo posted a 14.3 percent HR/FB mark.

Assuming Choo holds down a full-time job for the year, he could post a .290 average along with 15-20 HRs and 8-10 steals, too. If he was a first baseman, we might call him Derrek Lee. And for a guy who goes undrafted in many early mocks, that’s great production. Make sure to have Choo on your list of players to target in the late rounds of your draft.

Perhaps no player in fantasy baseball has a wider range of potential outcomes than Pirates outfielder Nyjer Morgan. A former hockey player in the Canadian Junior Leagues, Morgan is really fast and he has posted a good batting average in two limited stretches in the majors. He is in a battle for a starting job in Spring Training and there is a strong possibility he starts April as the team’s leadoff man and everyday left fielder.

If Morgan holds down the starting job all season his upside is 2003-vintage Juan Pierre. That year, Pierre hit .305, stole 65 bases and had roughly a $30 season despite hitting just one home run.

But even if Morgan wins the job in Spring Training over Steve Pearce, there’s no guarantee he holds on to the job, as Andrew McCutchen will likely join the Pirates at some point in the 2009 season and take over an everyday job in the outfield.

And there’s always the battle with Pearce, who has been a better hitter than Morgan throughout their careers in the minors and who has the power bat that teams like to see from their corner outfielders. The Pirates seem worried about Pearce’s ability to hit off-speed pitches and have hinted that he may need additional seasoning in the minors.

So, if Morgan wins the battle in Spring Training, how likely is he to keep the job?

The first thing that jumps out about Morgan is his BABIP. Last year in Pittsburgh it was .367 and that hardly seems a mark that he could maintain going forward. But Morgan has always posted high BABIPs in the minors. He makes decent contact, hits line drives, and has the tremendous speed – pretty much the exact profile of a player who can post high BABIPs.

Can Morgan supplement his average with a good OBP? He’s never had a great walk season and there is no reason to expect him to in 2009. Yet, he should be able to post an OBP of around .350 if he can hit .300, which would be borderline acceptable. For a comparison, Pierre’s OBP was .361 in 2003.

Is he a good enough fielder to hold down a corner spot with no power? While defensive ability currently has no value in fantasy baseball, in this particular case it will help determine Morgan’s playing time. He does not look like a good outfielder running routes to the ball, but his UZR numbers are through the roof. Last year, only two qualified left fielders posted a double-digit UZR/150. In 45 games last year, Morgan’s UZR/150 extrapolated to 22.4, which would have been behind only Carl Crawford among left fielders.

Does the manager seem willing to go to war with Morgan? At the end of last season, Pirates manager John Russell said, “He did some really good things. He was exciting. He really added a dimension to our offense. His missing three games is not going to affect our evaluation.” In December, MLB.com had Russell suggesting “the Pirates will start the season with Nyjer Morgan, Nate McLouth and Brandon Moss manning the outfield.”

But while all of the above might paint a rosy picture, keep in mind that his MLE from his 327 at-bats in Triple-A last year show a player with a .266/.310/.324 line. Do you place more value on 327 Triple-A at-bats or the 160 he had with the Pirates? And even if you favor the at-bats in Pittsburgh, how much faith do you have that he can maintain the ultra-high BABIP?

Morgan simply has too much volatility to be anything other than a late-round pick in most fantasy leagues. It’s near certain that some owners will fall in love with his SB potential and draft him earlier than that, especially if the Pirates announce that he’s won the job before your league drafts. But remember that McLouth and Moss are definitely above him in the pecking order and that McCutchen and Pearce (and even Craig Monroe) are looming if he stumbles.

When the Chicago Cubs inked talented-but-nomadic outfielder Milton Bradley to a three-year, $30 million deal earlier this month, the writing was on the wall for Felix Pie. The soon-to-be 24 year-old was ranked by Baseball America as Chicago’s best prospect in both 2006 and 2007, but it seemed as though the organization had soured on the Dominican Republic native. Despite a fairly impressive minor league dossier (Pie is a career .299/.353/.470 hitter) and above-average range, Felix evidently made a bad impression in two stale cups of coffee with the Cubbies in ’07 and ’08: in 260 career PA, the lanky lefty hit .223/.284/.331.

With Pie out of minor league options and the Cubs looking for some additional pitching depth, the North Siders have reportedly shipped their erstwhile top prospect to the Baltimore Orioles in exchange for 25 year-old lefty Garrett Olson and A-Ball righty Henry Williamson. The merits of this deal from Chicago’s standpoint can certainly be debated- Olson has endured quite the rough introduction to the majors as well, with a 5.28 FIP in 165 innings. His work in the minors (8.91 K/9, 2.93 BB/9) suggests he’s capable of better. However, as a finesse, fly-ball starter, it’s difficult to project Olson as more than a back-end starter. Will the Cubs come to regret letting their former star pupil leave town for a B-level pitching prospect?

Pie is coming off of just a fair season at AAA Iowa, having batted .287/.336/.466 in 368 PA. His walk rate has never been especially high (6.4 BB% in ’08, 8.2% career), but the 6-2, 170 pounder did display decent pop (.179 ISO) and only struck out 16.1% of the time. The previous season, he scorched the corn fields to the tune of .362/.410/.563 in 250 PA. That showing was surely aided by a ridiculous .411 BABIP, but the line serves to show that that it wasn’t all that long ago that Pie was raking and looking like a future pillar for the Cubs.

So, Pie isn’t coming off of a great season, but he still held his own in AAA as a 23 year-old at an up-the-middle position. But with the rangy Adam Jones patrolling center field (+8.5 UZR/150 during the ’08 season) and the terminally underrated Nick Markakis holding down right field, Pie might head to the bench for the time being and perhaps take over for left fielder Luke Scott at some point. Another option allows the O’s to move Scott to DH and insert Pie in left on Opening Day. Here’s what Rotoworld had to say about Pie playing left field in Baltimore:

“Not yet 24 years old, Pie was a nice target as a true center fielder with power and speed, but the Orioles are an odd fit with Adam Jones already patrolling center. Pie is for left field, but he doesn’t offer nearly enough offensively to carry the position.”

Now, Rotoworld is a tremendous website and offers a level of insight that few others match. However, I have to take issue with this statement, and others like it that I have seen over the winter. I think that there’s a sort of misconception with players like Pie, who might not at first blush appear capable of “carrying” a corner outfield position.

Let’s call it the “Randy Winn Effect.” Winn, as you probably know, is the right fielder for the San Francisco Giants. Upon first glance, he might appear to be ill-suited for a corner outfield spot- after all, he has slugged just .445 and .426 over the past two seasons. However, Winn offers something that few corner outfielders provide: plus defense. Winn has posted UZR/150 figures of 11.9 in 2007 and 18.9 in 2008. While his bat might be average by positional standards, he adds a significant amount of additional value with the leather compared to his plodding peers. In fact, Winn ranked 5th among all right fielders in Win Values this past season, with 4.6. While that was a high-water mark, Winn has been worth an average of 2.9 wins over the past three seasons.

Which brings us back to Pie. Sure, Pie’s offensive output at this point in his career might look ordinary, perhaps even somewhat below average for a corner outfielder. However, one has to consider defense as part of the equation. Pie might not hit like some of the more thunderous bats that typify a corner position, but his level of defensive ability figures to be significantly higher than most of his peers. Those additional runs that he saves in the field count- he adds value in an area where most of his contemporaries harm theirs. You might hear an analyst say that a player like Pie is “wasted” in a corner spot. That’s just not true- the offensive standard might be higher in left field than in center, but Pie’s range saves runs compared to the average left fielder. Those runs count, too.

Let’s give Pie a hypothetical 600 PA for the Orioles in 2009. CHONE, a projection system that incorporates minor league and major league data, pegs Pie for a .333 wOBA, just about dead-on average. Given his sturdy minor league record, that seems reasonable. Maybe a tad optimistic in his first crack at regular playing time, but let’s stick with it for now.

With a .333 wOBA, Pie projects to contribute about 0 runs above average with the bat. Pie has solid scouting reports afield and has done nice work in a small number of innings for the Cubs. As a left fielder, let’s say that Pie is a +7.5 run fielder. Adding in the positional adjustment (-7.5 runs per 162 games) and adjusting for replacement level (+20 runs), Pie projects to be worth a little north of 2 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) for the O’s. For comparison, newly-signed Phillie Raul Ibanez was worth 2.2 WAR for the Mariners in 2008, and free agent Adam Dunn was worth 1.8 WAR. Both of those guys are better hitters than Pie, but Ibanez and Dunn punt so much of their value with the leather that the overall level of value between the three projects to be negligible.

While Felix Pie’s stock might have taken somewhat of a hit with a rough introduction to the big leagues, he will play the entire 2009 season as a 24 year-old, retains some promise with the bat and projects to be a significantly better fielder than his peers in a corner outfield spot. His contribution to the O’s might not pop out at one the way that a monstrous batting line does, but Pie’s combination of decent hitting and slick glove work makes him yet another interesting position player for an organization that already houses Markakis, Jones and catcher Matt Wieters. Pie is worth a look in deeper leagues and should aid a mediocre Baltimore rotation in the immediate future. Beyond that, the outlook could be rosier if Pie takes flight with his tether now removed by the O’s.

Chicago’s loss is the Baltimore’s gain: long-term, Pie should provide decent numbers with the stick while teaming with Markakis and Jones to form an athletic, run-saving outfield trio. When pitching prospects like Christopher Tillman, Jake Arrieta and Brian Matusz break into the big leagues, they’ll be flanked by three rangy outfielders who will cover the gaps with ease.

The Oakland Athletics organization has a lot of depth in the outfield. Full-time jobs are guaranteed for just two players: newly acquired star Matt Holliday and whiff king Jack Cust. The former will be the A’s No. 1 offensive cog in the lineup and should bat third or fourth with plenty of opportunities to drive in runs. The fear, though, is that his offensive ceiling has been overrated by playing in Colorado for his entire career to this point. And Oakland is far from a hitter’s park.

Holliday’s career splits are .357/.423/.645 at home and .280/.348/.455 on the road. Last season, Holliday’s OPS was .892 on the road. In Oakland, only Cust had a slugging percentage more than .390 with 200 or more at-bats. Even if the club’s new slugger does regress to his career road splits both at home and while touring the league, then he is still an offensive upgrade for the club and should drive in his fair share of runs.

Cust’s playing time could be affected by the signing of veteran slugger Jason Giambi, who will spend time at designated hitter and first base. Cust will spend time at designated hitter and left-field. He has some of the most intriguing power in the game but the strikeouts – 197 in 481 at-bats last season – hurt. Cust’s value is also negatively impacted by a low batting average (.239 career) and lower-than-you’d-like RBI totals (159 in the last two seasons) in part because he hit just .231 with runners in scoring position last season.

Someone has to play center-field in Oakland and it will likely be incumbent Ryan Sweeney, who spent 51 games there last season. He is not a ton of help to Fantasy teams because he doesn’t hit for much power (five homers in 2008), he doesn’t run a lot (nine stolen bases), and his batting average is modest (.286). At his best, Sweeney projects to be a 15-15 player.

Both Matt Murton, acquired last season in the Rich Harden/Chad Gaudin trade, and Chris Denorfia are quality fourth outfielders and would have an outside shot of playing everyday for a few teams in Major League Baseball. In 2006 with Chicago, Murton hit .297/.365/.444 in 144 games but he has struggled for playing time ever since, mainly because there has always been someone just a little bit better than him on the roster. The former supplemental first round draft pick (by Boston) deserves at least a platoon role with a career line against southpaws of .311/.382/.484. Denorfia’s career has been derailed by injuries. He’s a grinder-type, though, that doesn’t really help out Fantasy managers very much even when he plays everyday because he projects to hit about 10 home runs, steal 10-15 bases and hit about .270.

Former first round pick Travis Buck could not follow up his breakout 2007 season (.288/.377/.474 in 82 games) because of injuries and general ineffectiveness (.226/.291/.432). If he’s healthy in 2009 and gets some playing time, Buck’s power potential could be of value for the A’s, and Fantasy teams. He is the most deserving of a regular role among the non-guaranteed starters.

Aaron Cunningham made his Major League debut in 2009 after being part of the reward for trading Dan Haren to Arizona last year. Scouts are split on Cunningham’s offensive potential and he could end up having a similar offensive output to Denorfia, by being able to do a little bit of everything but nothing quite often enough to become a Fantasy darling. On the other hand, if everything clicks he has an outside shot of being a 20-20 player.

Players with limited upside who threaten to steal playing time from more productive players include Rajai Davis and Rule 5 draft pick Ben Copeland. Davis does not really belong in the American League as his value lies in pinch running and acting as a defensive replacement late in games. Copeland, selected out of San Francisco, has some intriguing minor league numbers but he projects as a fourth outfielder who can run a little and isn’t afraid to take a walk. But his ceiling is tempered by his lack of power and questionable ability to hit for average.

It will be interesting to see how playing time is handed out in Oakland’s outfield in 2009 with 11 outfielders on the club’s 40-man roster, not including youngster Eric Patterson who split time between second base and the outfield in 2008.

After a week of inactivity, the free agent dominoes appear to be falling. On the heels of the Tampa Bay Rays inking Pat Burrell to a team-friendly deal, Milton Bradley has come to terms with the Chicago Cubs on a three-year, $30 million pact. The erstwhile Expo, Indian, Dodger, Athletic, Padre and Ranger will now patrol right field for the Cubbies.

Turning 31 in April, Bradley is coming off of a monstrous offensive campaign in 2008. In 510 PA, the switch-hitter pummeled opposing pitchers to the tune of a .321/.436/.563 line, with a .423 wOBA that ranked fourth among all hitters. Only Albert Pujols, Chipper Jones and Manny Ramirez provided more offensive value to their respective ballclubs. Despite the significant penalty incurred by designated hitters from position adjustments (-17.5 runs per 162 games), Bradley was worth 3.7 wins last season. That level of performance was worth nearly $17 million to the Rangers.

While Milton is a truly outstanding hitter who draws walks by the bushel and hits for power, we should expect some degree of regression from his lethal ’08 season- his .396 BABIP is not sustainable. Marcel projects Bradley to post a .384 wOBA in 479 PA in 2009. If Bradley were to meet that reasonable forecast, he would be worth a little more than 20 runs above average with the stick.

Of course, the equation is not that simple. With Bradley shifting back to the NL, he must now dust off his glove and play a position on a daily basis. Bradley has endured more than his fair share of injuries over the years, and manning the outfield only figures to exacerbate his lack of durability. Over the 2006 and 2007 seasons, he hit the DL for a sprained right knee, a strained left shoulder, a strained left hamstring (twice), a right calf strain and a strained oblique muscle. That doesn’t include the bizarre torn ACL that Bradley suffered disputing a call, either. He has topped the 500 PA mark just twice in his career: as a DH with the Rangers last season and with the Dodgers back in 2004.

Given Bradley’s extensive history of injury and the uncertainty surrounding his ability to play the outfield without triggering health problems, just what sort of deal did the North Siders get? Will Bradley’s powerful bat prove to be a bargain, or will Chicago develop buyer’s remorse?

For the purposes of this exercise, let’s assume that Bradley averages about 400 PA and 100 games per season. Those are admittedly arbitrary numbers that could be argued, but it’s an attempt to account for the likelihood that Bradley will be unavailable for a decent chunk of time. If Bradley meets his Marcel projection of a .384 wOBA, he’d be worth about 17 runs above average offensively in 400 PA.

Calculating Milton’s defensive value is much less straightforward. He has been an above-average defender in the past, and has performed well in limited opportunities over the past two seasons. Let’s call Bradley a +5 run fielder. Pro-rating the positional adjustment (-7.5 runs per 162 games for corner outfielders) and replacement level (+20 runs per 600 PA), Bradley projects to be worth about 31 runs above replacement, or 3.1 WAR.

It has become increasingly obvious that this is very much a buyer’s market for clubs, so let’s keep last year’s $4.5 million per WAR figure. Using that, Bradley projects to be worth about $14 million on a one-year deal. Even accounting for the likelihood that Bradley hits the shelf with an ailment or two, he projects to be worth considerably more than his salary for the 2009 season.

Accounting for a 10% discount rate for a longer deal (risk-averse players tend to sacrifice a little coin to risk-neutral clubs in long-term pacts), a fair three-year deal for Bradley would come out to about $37.8 million. If Milton can stay on the field a little less than two-thirds of the time with the Cubs, his performance should outpace his salary.

A three-year deal for a player with a DL record similar in length to “War and Peace” is risky. But, the Cubs appear to have accounted for the probability of Bradley missing significant time, and seemingly got his premium bat at something of a discount. There’s no reason to expect Bradley to play anything resembling a full season’s worth of games, but he’ll be productive enough when he’s in the lineup to satisfy both the Cubs and fantasy owners. Luckily, fantasy folk don’t have to make a multi-year commitment. Expect Milton to mash when he’s in the lineup-just have a decent backup plan in place for his inevitable DL stint.

Year in and year out, Ichiro is a model of consistency. He has had over 200 hits and a batting average over .300 every single season he’s been in the majors. He’s also scored at least 100 runs every year, and stolen at least 30 bases. That being said, what can we expect from 2009?

The short answer, of course, is more of the same. When a player is this consistent for this long, the best predictor of his performance is his past performance. With that in mind, Ichiro is also getting older – he’ll be 35 next year, and even though he is a unique player, he’s not totally immune to the effects of aging. In fact, this is already beginning to show up in his batting average.

In 2008, Ichiro hit “only” .310 – the second lowest batting average of his career (in the North American Major Leagues, that is). However, he managed this batting average despite a higher-than-expected BABIP – his actual BABIP was .330, but his expected BABIP (according to a new model I introduced) was .307.

Before you tell me that Ichiro is unique, hear me out: yes, I agree that Ichiro is unique, but this new model attempted to incorporate many of the elements that make Ichiro unique – such things as hitting to all fields and speed, two elements of which Ichiro makes particular use.

I wouldn’t disagree that, even though the model has attempted to incorporate the unique aspects of Ichiro’s game, it hasn’t fully succeeded. Here are Ichiro’s expected and actual BABIPs since 2005:

Note the average: since 2005, the model has underrated Ichiro’s BABIP by approximately 23 points. Now, I think this is somewhat unfair, as the average is severely skewed by Ichiro’s incredibly-high BABIP in 2006, which was well out of line with even his own already-high numbers. But if we assume that the ~23 point difference is correct, well…that means Ichiro’s BABIP in 2008 was completely luck free.

What’s perhaps more interesting to note is the downward trend of Ichiro’s expected BABIP – it has declined each year since 2005. This goes along with conventional aging patterns – Ichiro was 31 in 2005, and as he exited his prime, his expected BABIP slowly dropped.

This suggests to me that Ichiro’s batting average is a lot more likely to go down than it is to rise. Of course, it’s certainly possible that he has another flukey BABIP year that allows his BA to rise once again, but this is increasingly unlikely as he gets older. Even though Ichiro’s .310 batting average was the second lowest of his career in 2008, it doesn’t appear that this was a fluke, but rather was indicative of him slowly getting older. That doesn’t mean Ichiro won’t have significant value in fantasy leagues next year – after all, he’s still shown that he can steal 40+ bases and hit over .300 – but don’t draft him expecting a resurgence to the AL batting title.

It is safe to say that the St. Louis Cardinals organization has a lot of outfield depth. The club can boast at least six Major-League-worthy outfielders in its 40-man roster, including Rick Ankiel, Brian Barton, Chris Duncan, Ryan Ludwick, Joe Mather, and Skip Schumaker. Top prospect Colby Rasmus, not currently on the big league roster, is also an outfielder and spent the entire 2008 season in Triple-A.

Barton and Mather are solid fourth or fifth outfielders – versatile and can do a little bit of everything. After hitting .147 against southpaws in 2008, Duncan is a platoon player and poor fielder.

Based on his offensive profile, Schumaker is best-suited to center-field because he does not hit for power (.104 ISO in 2008). Unfortunately, his defensive numbers suggest that he has below average range for center (1.78 RF/g compared to the league average of 2.26) and is better off in left-field. Not only is Schumaker likely to return to a fourth-outfielder role in the near future, he is also of no use to Fantasy Baseball owners due to his lack of power and stolen bases (12 in 296 career games).

There are not many players in the Major Leagues that topped Ludwick’s offensive season in 2008. Everyone kept waiting for him to regress after disappointing clubs in five previous seasons, but he ended up hitting .299 with 37 home runs and 113 RBI. In fact, his OPS improved from .962 in the first half of the season to .971 in the second (although that was aided by a boost in BABIP from .313 to .381). At the age of 30, Ludwick is probably not going to get better but he could maintain a .270-280 average with 25-30 home runs in 2009.

Everyone knows Ankiel’s story by now. The converted pitcher had a respectable season in 2008 by anyone’s standards with a .264 batting average, 25 home runs and 71 RBI. However, his offence really dropped off in the second half of the season with his triple-slash line going from .270/.343/.537 to .245/.319/.415. The left-handed batter struggled against southpaws all season long with an average of .224.

By looking at the above players we can see that none of them deserve to stand in the way of Rasmus, who has the potential to surpass each one of them offensively and defensively. In the outfield, Rasmus has outstanding range in center-field with a 2.35 RF/g in 2008, as well as a strong arm. Offensively, he has game-changing power potential after hitting 29 home runs with a .275 ISO at Double-A in 2007.

His 2008 season at Triple-A does not look as impressive, but the talented outfielder had a slow start to the season and then hurt his knee and groin just as he was heating up. There is little doubt that Rasmus will begin the 2009 season in Triple-A, given St. Louis’ depth and the fact that he hit just .251/.347/.396 in 2008. His career line is solid at .277/.367/.486 in 1,532 at-bats. The left-handed batter has also handed southpaws well in his career, which is something that cannot be said for the outfielders currently in St. Louis. Last season, Rasmus hit .245/.349/.336 against them, compared to .256/.354/.433 against right-handers. In his career, Rasmus has hit .275/.371/.455 against lefties and .278/.364/.496 against righties.

Some eyes were raised when Rasmus declined the opportunity to play winter ball to help make up for lost time and perhaps accelerate his big-league timetable. Regardless, he could very well surface in St. Louis by mid-season if he gets off to a respectable start to the 2009 season. Rasmus may initially struggle to hit for average, but he should be productive and Fantasy Baseball owners should track his progress closely.