One of the most undervalued fantasy players year-in and year-out is Carlos Lee. Last year, Lee was on pace for one of his best seasons ever before a finger injury ended his season in early August. At the time, Lee was in the midst of a prolonged hot streak. In his final 243 plate appearances of the year, he had a .366/.432/.648 line with 16 HR and 54 RBIs in 216 at-bats.

On first glance, it looks like Lee has declined two straight years, with falling numbers in HR, R and SB. Because of this, the Marcel and Oliver projections are not kind to Lee. Fantasy players perhaps have similar notions, as Lee has an ADP of 27 according to the latest information from Mock Draft Central. That makes him the ninth-rated outfielder.

Earlier, I extolled the virtues of Mark Teixeira and noted how he had averaged a .298-35-120-100 fantasy line over the past four years. Well, Lee has a .294-32-112-85 line in that same time frame but also has averaged 12 SB per year. If Teixeira is properly valued at 13, does it not seem a little low for Lee to be at 27?

Throughout his career, Lee has been very durable. Last year’s finger injury was a freak accident and reports have him representing Panama in the upcoming World Baseball Classic. Lee has seen no drop off in his hitting skills. He still does a good job with his plate discipline and his batted ball profile with a 21.2 percent line drive rate and a 43.6 percent fly ball rate last year stacks up nicely with his career numbers. Any fantasy player who gets Lee in the third round this year should be extremely happy.

After nearly a decade apart, the Seattle Mariners and Ken Griffey Jr. will once again be united in 2009. Griffey, of course, spent the 1989-1999 seasons with the M’s, racking up a collection of numbers that portended to his ranking among the all-time greats in many categories, with a possible run at the home run record chiefly among them. While “The Kid” was often sidetracked by injuries, Griffey has still compiled 611 big flys and owns a career triple-slash line of .288/.373/.547.

Nostalgia aside, the 39 year-old that returns to Seattle retains just slight glimpses of the guy who was one of the marquee players of the 1990’s. In fact, Griffey has posted a total of -0.2 Value Wins over the past three seasons combined, with a declining bat and defensive work that rates among the worst in the game (Griffey posted a total of -67.8 fielding runs from ’06 to ’08).

Griffey will likely put the glove down with the M’s, taking over at DH for a club that received embarrassing production from the position last season (Seattle DH’s combined to “hit” .221/.273/.334). Will Griffey be an asset for the Mariners?

Number 24’s power production has been in pretty steady decline since 2005, as his isolated power (ISO) has dipped from .275 in ’05 to .234 in ’06, .220 in ’07 and .176 in ’08. He still manages to draw a fair amount of walks (around 14% the past two campaigns), but Griffey has essentially been a league-average hitter in two of the past three seasons, with a .336 wOBA in 2006, .369 in 2007 and a .335 mark in 2008. That production came at Great American Ballpark, which smiles upon power hitters (GABP’s three-year HR park factor is 128). Transitioning to Safeco will very likely do harm to Griffey’s waning pop, as the M’s home park has a 94 HR park factor from 2006 to 2008.

Also of concern is Griffey’s struggles with same-side pitching. Over the past three seasons, Griffey has managed a useful .272/.379/.461 line against right-handers, but southpaws have neutralized him to the tune of .202/.299/.350.

Griffey’s signing also potentially means less playing time for a few talented-but-unproven youngsters. Catcher Jeff Clement and outfielder Wladimir Balentien both figured to receive some at-bats in the DH spot, but Griffey’s arrival might torpedo that plan. The Mariners might have an outside shot of contention in a division without a standout club (PECOTA projects the Angels to win the AL West with just 84 victories), but the team would seemingly be best served by allowing Clement (a career .286/.377/.494 minor league hitter) to get some AB’s when he’s not spelling Kenji Johjima behind the plate and allowing Balentien (.277/.344/.526 in the minors) to hone his control of the strike zone if Endy Chavez is in left field.

If this is indeed a “baseball decision” (as GM Jack Zduriencik characterized it in the MLB.com article linked to above) and not just a means of attracting fans, then it’s still not especially clear that signing Griffey improves the club in 2009:

CHONE Projections, 2009:
Griffey: .332 wOBA
Clement: .338 wOBA
Balentien: .313 wOBA

The system is not especially optimistic about Balentien, but it suggests that Clement (the guy who figures to lose the most playing time here) would provide more value with the bat.

Ken Griffey returning to Seattle might be an interesting story, but the M’s prodigal son returns as a platoon DH with declining thump at the plate, and he’s moving into a power-suppressing environment to boot. Griffey is one of the better players that we have seen in recent memory, but his days as a force are well behind him.

Earlier today, we examined the battle of attrition being waged between center field candidates Melky Cabrera and Brett Gardner. However, the Yankees have another battle for playing time brewing in right field between Nick Swisher and Xavier Nady. In the case of these two, judging by the 2008 numbers is probably not the best way to go about picking a winner.

Last offseason, Swisher was shipped from the A’s to the White Sox for a haul of young players: lefty Gio Gonzalez, right-hander Fautino De Los Santos and outfielder Ryan Sweeney. Despite sacrificing a good deal to acquire Swisher’s talents, the South Siders quickly soured on the Ohio State star after he posted a .219/.332/.410 line in 588 PA. In fact, Swisher was so far down the totem pole that he rode the bench down the stretch in favor of minor league vagabond Dewayne Wise. Earlier this offseason, the Bombers acquired Nick and minor league righty Kanekoa Texeira for Wilson Betemit and minor league righties Jeffrey Marquez and Jhonny Nunez.

Swisher’s 2008 line looks very disappointing. However, as Peter Bendix pointed out, very little changed in the switch-hitter’s offensive profile. Take a look at some of Swisher’s key indicators over the past three seasons…

2006: 14.9 BB%, 27.3 K%, .239 ISO, 19.3 LD%, .287 BABIP
2007: 15.6 BB%, 24.3 K%, .193 ISO, 17.5 LD%, .308 BABIP
2008: 14.2 BB%, 27.2 K%, .191 ISO, 20.9 LD%, .251 BABIP

In most every respect, Swisher’s 2008 season falls in line with his work over the 2006-2007 seasons, when he posted wOBA’s of .368 and .361, respectively. The only big difference in ’08, when his wOBA dipped to .325, was an extremely low BABIP. Despite a healthy line drive rate, Swish posted the 4th-lowest BABIP among all qualified hitters. That number will surely bounce back, and with it, so will Swisher’s overall line.

Nady’s 2008 season was sort of the inverse of Swisher’s. Acquired from the Pirates last July, the 30 year-old posted a career-best .374 wOBA after compiling marks of .346 in 2007 and .336 in 2006. X-Man has experienced an upward trend in line drive rate and has hit the ball with a little more authority, but his overall skill set remains about the same…

2006: 6 BB%, 18.2 K%, .173 ISO, 17 LD%, .311 BABIP
2007: 5.1 BB%, 23.4 K%, .197 ISO, 21.3 LD%, .323 BABIP
2008: 6.6 BB%, 18.6 K%, .205 ISO, 24.6 LD%, .337 BABIP

The odds of Nady being able to sustain a .300 average and that high of a line-drive rate are likely slim. If he reverts back to being a .270-280-ish hitter, his modest walk rate means that his OBP will probably park in the .320-.330 range. Nady is not a bad player, mind you, but his best role would appear to come as a lefty-masher off the bench: though he has admittedly been better over the past few seasons, Nady has a career .317 OBP versus righty pitching, compared to .383 versus southpaws. Perhaps Nady has turned a corner, but it’s more likely that he remains a high-power, low on-base player best used in favorable situations.

Most projection systems seem to agree that Swisher will be the better offensive player in ’09:

Marcel
Swisher: .344 wOBA
Nady: .348 wOBA

CHONE
Swisher: .360 wOBA
Nady: .342 wOBA

Bill James
Swisher: .358 wOBA
Nady: .353 wOBA

PECOTA
Swisher: .244/.353/.460
Nady: .270/.323/.444

Given Swisher’s poor luck on balls in play and Nady’s batting average spike, it seems possible that these two will switch places this year, with Swisher being labeled a “bounce-back player” and Nady having the “disappointment” tag bestowed upon him. Swisher’s on-base skills make him the better bet to produce in 2009.

Despite spending copious amounts of cash this offseason, the New York Yankees do enter spring training with a number of question marks at up-the-middle positions. Will Jorge Posada’s shoulder hold up? (and if not, do you really want Jose Molina and his career .270 wOBA getting regular duty?) Will Robinson Cano bounce back offensively and defensively? Can Derek Jeter stave off decline?

Perhaps the most unsettled aspect of all is the situation in center field. The Bronx Bombers received precious little from the position in 2008, receiving a combined .261/.320/.391 line (the average MLB CF hit .268/.333/.419). The main culprit, Melky Cabrera, will return to battle another farm product in Brett Gardner.

Signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2001, Cabrera appeared in the majors at the age of 20, and has seen fairly regular playing time over the past three seasons. The problem is, the 24 year-old has declined at the plate in each of those three campaigns. Cabrera’s initial showing with the Yankees was actually quite impressive: as a 21 year old in 2006, he batted .280/.360/.391 with a .333 wOBA. A player that young showing that good of a grasp of the strike zone (10.9 BB%, 22.3 O-Swing% 12.8 K%) usually portends to better days down the road.

In 2007, however, Cabrera actually regressed. He slugged exactly .391 again, but is OBP fell over 30 points, down to .327. His wOBA, about league average in ’06, also dropped to .317. The switch-hitter showed less restraint at the dish, drawing walks at a 7.3% clip and swinging at 29.5% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone.

After an intriguing debut and a mildly disappointing follow-up season, Cabrera saw his production crater in 2008. The Melk-Man authored a grisly .285 wOBA, hitting .249/.301/.341. Some of that dip in performance can be explained by a lower-than-expected BABIP (.273). However, Cabrera once again drew fewer free passes (6.5%) and often fished for offerings out of the zone (28.4 O-Swing%).

Cabrera’s steady decline is confounding. It’s not very often that a player debuts at such a young age, shows a polished approach and then subsequently becomes more raw as the years go by. The Santo Domingo native also hasn’t done himself any favors with his glove work in center field. Cabrera has a career -9.8 UZR/150 in center (though he did manage a +0.9/150 rating in ’08). That might not affect his fantasy value, per se, but it does make the Yankees less apt to stick with him.

The main competition for Cabrera will come from Gardner. Selected out of Charleston in the 3rd round of the 2005 amateur draft, Gardner has used a discerning eye and blazing speed to climb the minor league ranks. The 5-10, 180 pounder has a career .389 OBP in the minors as well as an 83% success rate on the base paths. Fresh off a AAA season in which he hit .296/.414/.422, Gardner made his Yankees debut last summer, posting a .282 wOBA in 141 PA.

While Gardner’s OBP skills and speed might make him appear as an ideal catalyst, there are some concerns about how his game will translate to the major league level. He does work the count very well, but Gardner also swings and misses a good deal more than your average water bug player (about 23% over the past two seasons in AAA). The 25 year-old also possesses very little pop, with a .126 ISO at AAA in ’08 and an even lower .094 career mark in the minors.

Gardner’s combination of skills (good eye, higher K rates, little power) is a tough one to project- it’s possible that some of those walks will dry up in the big leagues (think Michael Bourn), as pitchers are less likely to pitch Gardner so cautiously. Why not challenge him, if the worst possible outcome upon contact is a single? Pitchers did challenge the lefty during his initial big league action, as Gardner saw a fastball nearly 71% of the time.

Of course, both Cabrera and Gardner could just be keeping the CF seat warm for someone else. Austin Jackson, 22, is one of New York’s most well-regarded prospects. An 8th round selection in the 2005 draft, Jackson is coming off of a solid showing at AA (.285/.354/.419) and possesses an interesting blend of skills. The 6-1, 185 pounder doesn’t have one particular talent that jumps out at you, but he works the count decently, has gradually shown a little more power at each minor league stop and can swipe some bases as well.

Whether Cabrera or Gardner can hold onto the job long-term remains to be seen, but the Yankees need someone to solidify the position in 2009. In an AL East division that figures to be fiercely competitive (PECOTA projects 90+ wins for Boston, New York and Tampa), the Bombers can ill-afford to have a black hole in center.

The Washington Nationals’ roster is, to say the least, jumbled at the moment. Between first base and the outfield, the Nats have a consortium of promising youngsters, former and failed top prospects, injury risks and overlapping parts. Short of petitioning the league for an extra outfield spot or two, Washington is going to need to sort out how to deploy newly-signed Adam Dunn (1B? OF?), Elijah Dukes, Lastings Milledge, Josh Willingham, Austin Kearns, Wily Mo Pena and Willie Harris, and will also need to figure out if the brittle $10.5M combo of Nick Johnson and Dmitri Young can provide any value. Dave Cameron summed up GM Jim Bowden’s circus-like roster construction best:

“If Bowden was a general contractor, he’d build houses with nine bedrooms, six garages, no bathrooms, and half a roof.”

According to Washington’s official depth chart as well as this MLB.com story, Dunn will be taking over duties at first base for the Nats. While the 29 year-old is allergic to all things leather (-12.6 career UZR/150 in the OF, -11.3 at 1B), shifting him to a corner infield spot is the lesser of two evils in the non-DH league.

There’s not much to say about Dunn’s offensive profile: while not aesthetically pleasing to those who fancy batting average, the former Red and D-Back has tremendous plate discipline and a ton of raw power. He has posted wOBA’s of .365, .399 and .383 over the past three seasons. Granted, those wOBA figures aren’t park-adjusted, but Dunn’s offensive production is still very impressive once you strip away the benefit derived from Great American Ballpark and his short time at Chase Field. Dunn’s park-adjusted batting runs above average over the 2006-2008 period: 17.9, 34.5 and 27.4.

The slugger who has eerily posted exactly 40 home runs each of the past four seasons will now reside in Nationals Park. We have only one year of data for the new stadium, so making any sweeping conclusions about the offensive environment of the park would be fruitless. It played as a slight hitter’s venue overall in 2008, though it slightly suppressed homers. Odds are, Dunn’s production will slip to some extent without GABP (128 HR park factor from ’06-08), but the park adjusted runs show that he’s still a very productive batsman.

If Dunn will be settling in as the everyday first baseman, then that leaves Nick Johnson and his partner is medical commiseration, Dmitri Young, without a place to play.

In case you have forgotten (perfectly understandable, considering he missed all of ’07 and accumulated just 147 PA last year), Johnson is a wonderful offensive player when he’s healthy. With a career .370 wOBA and a near-.400 OBP, “Nick the Stick” could be a fantasy beast in a utopian society where world hunger, global warming and war have all come to an end. Unfortunately, Johnson remaining upright for a full season might be the least probable of those four scenarios: Nick’s 2007 season was wrecked by a broken leg, and his ’08 campaign was derailed by a tendon injury in his right wrist. He has taken 600 PA in one season exactly once in his career (2006). Owed $5.5M in ’09, Johnson could find himself on another roster come April. The Indians, Angels and Giants seem like possible fits.

If the gifted-but-breakable Johnson seems superfluous in Washington, then it’s doubly so for Dmitri Young. Young came to the Nats at perhaps the lowest point of his professional career, having played poorly for the Tigers while dealing with personal issues in 2006. The minor league free agent resuscitated his career in ’07, posting a .374 wOBA in 508 PA. However, GM Bowden got the warm fuzzies for Young and his other minor league scrap heap find, Ronnie Belliard, and signed them both to misguided, multi-year extensions. Young took just 180 trips to the plate in 2008, as complications from diabetes led to weight problems. Outrighted off the 40-man roster during the fall, Young is currently listed as a non-roster invitee. $5M commitment or not, his chances of making the club appear between slim and none.

Now that we’ve assessed the first base situation, it’s time to focus on the truly messy conundrum: the outfield. First, let’s get this out of the way: the two guys that positively, absolutely need to be playing on an everyday basis are Elijah Dukes and Lastings Milledge. While Washington has a lot of bodies for those three outfield spots, Dukes (24) and Milledge (24 in April) are two gifted youngsters who will be part of the next relevant Nationals team.

Dukes’ highly promising 2008 season has been chronicled here before: he posted a robust .382 wOBA and was worth nearly 3 wins to the Nats, despite taking just 334 PA. Dukes’ plate discipline, pop and athleticism figure to make him a well-rounded contributor. To do anything but give the 6-1, 240 pounder a full season’s worth of at-bats would be a masochistic act by the Nationals.

Milledge remains a fairly raw player, having drawn a walk just 6.8% of the time in 2008 while swinging at about 32% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone. However, he managed to post a decent .268/.330/.402 line, chipping in 24 steals in 33 attempts. A highly-touted prospect with the Mets, Milledge posted a career .303/.376/.477 line in the minors and possesses the skill-set to turn into a big asset for Washington in time. As with Dukes, Milledge needs everyday playing time to smooth out the rough edges in his game. Platooning a guy like this would be detrimental to the club’s overall rebuilding effort.

If Milledge and Dukes occupy center and right field, respectively, then the left field gig will likely go to newly-imported Josh Willingham. “The Hammer”, picked up from Florida along with Scott Olsen earlier this offseason, has been remarkably consistent at the plate over the past three seasons. From 2006-2008, Willingham has posted wOBA’s of .364, .365 and .363. 30 years old tomorrow, Willingham has some deficiencies with the leather (-6 career UZR/150 in LF), but his patience and solid pop make him a worthwhile contributor.

So, Willingham, Milledge and Dukes are the likely starters. That still leaves a couple of former top prospects and a defensive whiz to fight for roster spots. Former Reds outfielders are sort of like erstwhile Cincy GM Jim Bowden’s “White Whale”: in addition to bringing in Dunn, Bowden had previously swung trades to acquire Austin Kearns and Wily Mo Pena.

Kearns has been a pretty valuable player at times in his career. A plus defender with good plate patience, Kearns racked up 4.1 Value Wins between the Reds and the Nats in 2006, and was worth 3.6 wins during an ’07 season where he supplemented mild offense with great D. However, the 28 year-old’s offensive production has essentially fallen off of a cliff over the past two years. Kearns was never a hulking slugger (career .175 ISO), but he posted a .145 ISO in ’07 and a paltry .099 ISO in 2008. He still worked the count well and was the victim of poor luck on balls in play in 2008 (.251 BABIP), but the lack of punch is disconcerting. Kearns was beat up last year, dealing with a stress fracture in his foot and an elbow injury. Perhaps I’m just stubborn, but I think that Kearns could be of some value if he ends up taking his $8M salary elsewhere. It wasn’t that long ago that he was a solid contributor.

It’s almost impossible to fathom, but Wily Mo Pena has been in professional baseball since the end of Bill Clinton’s second presidential term. The Mets originally tried to snag Pena out of out the Dominican Republic, but later voided the contract. The Yankees swooped in during 1999, handing him a hefty $2.3M bonus. Later shipped to the Reds for another ill-fated prospect, Drew Henson, Pena was in the majors with Cincinnati by the age of 20. Pena has since played sporadically for the Reds, Red Sox and Nats, and owns a career .253/.307/.447 line.

One has to wonder what sort of player the 6-3, 245 pounder might have developed into had he been given sufficient time to hone his craft in the minors. That’s not to say that the 27 year-old is a lost cause, but the song remains the same for Pena: feats of strength sprinkled in with few walks (career 6.3 BB%) and a whole lot of whiffs (32.7%). Pena is coming off of a wretched 2008 (.227 wOBA in 206 PA) and appears to be lost in the shuffle with Washington. His skill-set just doesn’t appear suited to part time or pinch-hit duties: with a long, convoluted swing and a propensity to chase (33.2 O-Swing% from ’05 to ’08), Wily Mo might not be that useful off the bench.

Would you believe me if I told you that Willie Harris was Washington’s most valuable position player in 2008? I swear, I’m not making it up: the light-hitting utility man somehow managed to pop 13 HR in 424 PA, good for a .340 wOBA. He also posted a +32 UZR/150 in about 700 innings the outfield. All together, Willie managed to be worth 3.2 Value Wins, surpassing Christian Guzman’s 3.0 (honest, that’s true too) and Dukes’ 2.9. Of course, there’s little reason to take Harris’ offensive outburst as more than a blip: the 30 year-old has a career .343 slugging percentage and .303 wOBA in the majors. With so many other bats ahead of him, Harris figures to use his outstanding glove (career 15.2 UZR/150 in the OF) to carve out a role as Josh Willingham’s legs in the late innings. For fantasy purposes, he’s a non-factor.

Every time I think about Washington’s outfield/first base glut, I keep on getting this image in my head. I mean, how are they all going to fit in there? Odds are, one or possibly two of the fellows listed above will be changing addresses sometime soon. With Dunn now in D.C., the Nats must not sacrifice the development of either Dukes or Milledge- those guys need to play.

Ryan Braun is one of the first outfielders to go in nearly every mock draft so far this year. With two solid seasons of production under his belt, Braun has an ADP of nine according to the latest information from Mock Draft Central and he is the second-rated outfielder there behind Grady Sizemore.

One of the nice things about Braun is that he will give you numbers in all five categories. He is a threat to win the home run title, but he can also steal bases and post a nice average, too. Last year, Braun finished tied for fourth in the majors with 37 home runs. The three players who hit more homers – Carlos Delgado, Adam Dunn and Ryan Howard – combined for three steals while Braun had 14.

The big question around Braun is how high you think his average will be. In his rookie season, he batted .324 but his average dropped to .285 last year. Now that is still a fine mark – Delgado’s .271 was the highest mark of the three that hit more homers – but he is a borderline first-round pick if his average remains what it was in 2008.

The Bill James projection sees Braun rebounding for a .310 average this season, which makes him an easy first-round selection. The other three projection systems all show Braun improving on last year’s mark, which certainly is a nice sign.

When Braun hit .324 in 2007, he did it in part due to a .367 BABIP. Last year his mark in that category fell to .308, which led to the 39-point drop in average. All four projection systems show Braun with a BABIP this year in the .320s, which would probably mean some combination of more line drives and fewer infield pop-ups.

Starting with the sixth pick in the draft, it is reasonable to start considering Braun for your pick. But he is just one of about a dozen players you have to review. If you think he should be the sixth player taken, you are banking on the 25-point increase in average that the James projection predicts. That is not out of the question, but it should also be looked at as the high end of his expected performance for 2009.

Magglio Ordonez has been one of the more consistent players in baseball over the last 10 years. When healthy you can generally pencil him in for a .300 average with 20+ HR and over 100 RBIs. After his monstrous 2007, he came back to earth last year posting his lowest HR and 2B totals in a full year since his first full season in 1998. Is age starting to catch up with the 35 year old OF?

None of his peripheral numbers seem to suggest any aging effects taking their toll. His swinging strike percentage remained around his career average. His batted-ball data was in line with his career averages as well. The only thing that really suffered was his HR/FB%. This might indicate some slowing of his bat, but one year of a downward trend is not something I would bank on. If his peripherals seem to imply that Magglio had another of his dependable, above-average seasons, what should we expect going forward?

I would expect more of the same. I highly doubt we will see Magglio revert to his 2007 ways, but if he’s healthy (which might be a feat for a 35 YO OF) he should post around a .300/.375/.490 line with 20+ homers and runs/RBIs to match. The one issue I have in drafting Ordonez is that people may still see him as the batting title winning Ordonez of 2007. In 5×5 leagues, I would likely slot him in around Andre Ethier, Raul Ibanez, or Brad Hawpe. I tend to be wary of older players, particularly in this post-steroid era. Magglio, though, has been a model of consistency, which bodes well for him going forward.

Carlos Quentin was one of the front runners to win the MVP Award last year before his season ended in September with a broken wrist. All indications are that his recovery has gone without a hitch and he is expected ready for Spring Training. Yet fantasy players are treating him cautiously, as Quentin’s ADP according to the latest Mock Draft Central rankings is 37.

After two unimpressive stints with the Diamondbacks, Quentin flourished last year in his first full season. Most significant was his 36 home runs in 480 at-bats. Wrist injuries frequently sap power, which is undoubtedly the main reason Quentin is slipping into the fourth and sometimes even fifth round in early mocks.

Quentin is an unusual hitter in that he rarely hits line drives. His 15.4 percent LD mark was the third lowest in the majors and contributed to his .280 BABIP. But his low-strikeout and high-HR numbers resulted in an AVG of .288, or eight points above his BABIP.

The move to Chicago agreed with Quentin last year. He hit 21 of his 36 homers at Comiskey Park. But he did well on the road, too, where he notched a .950 OPS.

Because he struggled in his first two seasons in the majors, it’s easy to forget the Quentin was a top prospect. What he did last season was better, but not out of line with what he produced in the minors. Following his 2005 season at Tucson, prospect maven John Sickels ranked him as the sixth-best position player in baseball and Baseball America had him 20th overall, one spot above Nick Markakis.

But it all comes back to the wrist injury. And before you point to Evan Longoria, here’s what Baseball Prospectus’ Will Carroll had to say: “Here’s the key on Longoria — he broke his ARM (distal tip of ulna), not his wrist. If you pointed to the area, we’d all use the common term of ‘wrist’ but it’s not anatomically so.”

So, caution is justified with Quentin. He will still be a worthwhile player to own, but he’s not a top three-round guy. And before you draft him in the fourth round, ask yourself if you wouldn’t be better off with Curtis Granderson, who will be a full year removed from a non-displaced fracture in his right middle finger.

Of the players likely to go in the first few picks, perhaps the hardest to forecast is Josh Hamilton. Over at Mock Draft Central, Hamilton has been picked as high as second and as low as 18, which is a pretty wide split. Let’s compare that to two other guys who have topped out as the second pick. Jose Reyes has not dropped below eighth and Grady Sizemore’s lowest position was 11th.

Now Hamilton as the second pick is probably a reach, but he is in a group of people to consider at the end of the first round and the beginning of the second. Some analysts think it is crazy to draft Hamilton on the first round when you can get Carlos Lee on the second. Others see the production that Hamilton delivered last year – .304-32-130-98-9 – in his first full season and see room for improvement.

Part of the problem with Hamilton is that so much of his value derives from that high RBI total. He was second in the majors last year and only a second-half slump kept him from posting even gaudier totals in the category. Hamilton had 61 RBIs the first two months of the season and only 26 combined in August and September.

Fantasy owners like HR, SB and AVG because for the most part, the players are in control of their numbers in these categories. Meanwhile, as Jim Rice can tell you, RBIs are dependent on opportunities. It sure helps when you have Wade Boggs and Dwight Evans (or Ian Kinsler and Michael Young) getting on base a ton for you to drive in.

Hamilton’s monster first half coincided nicely with Kinsler’s terrific start. Then when Kinsler faded and then got injured in the second half, Hamilton suffered with him. It was a rough August for Hamilton, but he hit great in September (.366/.443/.516) and still managed just 13 RBIs.

A look at Hamilton’s profile shows nothing outlandish. Yes, his BABIP was high at .339 but nothing to be overly concerned about given his line drive and ground ball tendencies. Hamilton does not hit a ton of fly balls (32.9%) but has a good rate of converting those into home runs (19.2%). The fly ball percentage is low and will probably keep him from ever contending for the HR crown. But the Ballpark in Arlington, where he hit 19 HR last year, should keep him a 30-HR player.

In fantasy football, it is very common to look to capitalize with a QB-WR combo to give yourself a nine, 10 or 12-point connection. This year fantasy baseball players might be wise to do the same with Hamilton and Kinsler. Now you just have to decide which one to draft first.

Shin-Soo Choo, once a top prospect for the Mariners, received the most playing time of his major league career for the Indians last year. In his first year back after having Tommy John surgery, he set the record for most hits in a season by a Korean-born player. Choo’s 98 hits eclipsed the mark of 86 set by Hee Seop Choi in 2004.

The knock on Choo is that he is a platoon player or fourth outfielder. But in 2008, the lefty hitting Choo posted a .286/.345/.455 line versus southpaws, albeit in 84 plate appearances. But considering how well he hits righties (.317/.413/.579 last year), Choo apparently has earned a full-time starting job as Spring Training approaches.

Grady Sizemore is a fixture in center for Cleveland and he will be flanked by Choo and Ben Francisco. But the big unknown is Matt LaPorta, the key player received by the Tribe in the C.C. Sabathia deal last summer. LaPorta was enjoying a standout season before suffering a concussion in the Olympics. He will most likely start the season in the minors but it would be no surprise if LaPorta was in the majors before September, with the big question of if he will be an outfielder or a first baseman.

Choo had a .373 BABIP last season, which would have tied for third in the majors if he had enough at-bats to qualify. But as fantastic as that was, it was in line with what he had done in previous stints in the majors. His lifetime mark in the category now sits at .369 in 509 at-bats.

While Choo may or may not be able to sustain a high BABIP the big question is what can we expect from him in the power department. Last year’s .240 ISO mark was well beyond anything he had posted previously, either in the majors or the minors. But a significant portion of that was from doubles, as he smacked 28 two-baggers in 317 at-bats.

Some might be concerned about his 16.1 percent HR/FB mark last year, but in the only other season in the majors where he had sizable playing time, Choo posted a 14.3 percent HR/FB mark.

Assuming Choo holds down a full-time job for the year, he could post a .290 average along with 15-20 HRs and 8-10 steals, too. If he was a first baseman, we might call him Derrek Lee. And for a guy who goes undrafted in many early mocks, that’s great production. Make sure to have Choo on your list of players to target in the late rounds of your draft.