In an age of ubiquitous media, it’s easy to have knee-jerk reactions. This is true in baseball circles as well, particularly when it comes to prospects. If a hot-shot minor leaguer reaches the big leagues and initially disappoints, there is a tendency to label the player a “bust” or write him off as overhyped. However, some guys just take a little longer to make good on those lofty expectations; not every youngster hits the ground running.

Jayson Werth is a perfect example of this phenomenon. The Baltimore Orioles nabbed the lanky right-handed hitter in the first round of the amateur draft all the way back in 1997. A catcher at the time, Werth showcased solid on-base skills, but he failed to put much of a charge into the baseball. Still, his combination of premium position and a refined batting eye earned him plenty of accolades. As this Baseball Prospectus article notes, Baseball America ranked Werth as the 52nd-best prospect in the minors prior to the 1999 season (Werth dealt with a hairline fracture in his wrist during the ’99 season, an unfortunate harbinger of things to come) and #48 before the 2000 campaign.

From those promising beginnings, Werth would go on to disappoint the O’s during the 2000 season, and was shipped to the Blue Jays for John Bale before 2001 kicked off. Werth split the ’01 and ’02 seasons between catcher, first base and the outfield, though his bat did improve without the strain of squatting behind the dish every day. He posted a .271/.383/.472 line between High-A and AA in 2001. “Jayson Werth, Prospect” was back at this point, as BA ranked him 70th overall following the year. Playing mostly outfield in 2002, he managed a .257/.355/.445 line at AAA.

Just when Werth looked to be back on track, he stumbled in a return engagement at Syracuse in 2003 (.237/.283/.441, 68 K in 236 AB). That, coupled with a few sour cups of coffee with the Jays, caused Toronto to cuts its losses with the 24 year-old. Werth was bartered to the Dodgers prior to the 2004 season in exchange for Jason Frasor.

The career roller coaster continued in ’04, this time hitting another high point. Werth managed a respectable .262/.338/.486 line, walking 9.4% percent of the time while showing range in the outfield. He did whiff 29.3% while showing a platoon split (.247/.318/.419 vs. RHP, .293/.381/.630 vs. LHP), but all in all it was a welcome bit of health and production for a guy with a bumpy road to the majors.

Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but Werth’s success did not carry over into 2005. He had the misfortune of catching an A.J. Burnett fastball in the wrist during spring training, and he just never got on track in between three stints on the DL. Werth posted a 12.5 BB%, but severe contact problems (33.8 K%) and minimal thump due to the banged-up wrist (.139 ISO) led to an anemic .234/.338/.374 showing. Offseason surgery revealed ligament damage in the wrist, but the procedure did not cure what ailed him. The 2006 season was lost while recovering, and the Dodgers non-tendered Werth prior to 2007.

Near anonymous a decade after being a highly-regarded high schooler, Werth inked an $850K deal with the Phillies before the ’07 season. Philly GM Pat Gillick, head honcho of the Orioles back when Werth was a first-round selection, took a low-risk flyer and was rewarded. In 304 PA, Werth compiled a tasty .385 wOBA and batted .298/.404/.459. The 6-5, 225 pounder drew plenty of free passes (14.7%), though he did swing and miss enough to call that near-.300 average into question (28.6 K%). Werth continued to incinerate southpaws (.375/.467/.591) while merely surviving versus same-side pitching (.257/.371/.389).

After Geoff Jenkins faltered in the early going, Werth became an everyday player for the world-champion Phillies in 2008. In a career-high 482 PA, he turned in a .382 wOBA and a .273/.363/.498 line. His control of the zone remained similar (12 BB%, 28.5 K%), but Werth also translated his athleticism to the base paths by swiping 20 bags in 21 attempts. Lefties continued to feel the pain (.303/.368/.652) while righties held him in check (.255/.360/.407). Werth’s broad base of skills (walks, pop, plus defense and base running prowess) allowed him to post 5.2 Value Wins. His open-market worth was a stunning $23.4 million- talk about a sweet return on investment.

The Phillies rewarded the arbitration-eligible right fielder during the offseason, inking him to a two-year, $10M contract. Even if Werth regresses somewhat, the deal looks like a bargain for the club.

Going forward, the 29 year-old projects to post another impressive campaign in 2009. His overall line might not look as pretty- as an everyday guy, he’ll see a higher percentage of plate appearances versus right-handed pitchers- but his on-base adeptness, decent power production and 20 SB potential make Werth worth a draft pick in all leagues.

Shane Victorino made a great leap forward in 2007, doubling his HR output and seeing a nine-fold increase in his SB totals. He kept those gains in 2008, although in over 117 more plate appearances. Fantasy owners are big believers in Victorino, as he now holds an ADP of 51 according to the latest update over at Mock Draft Central.

Victorino, while no slouch in other categories, gets most of his value from steals. Over the past two seasons, he ranks 10th overall in SB with 73. So the big question for him going forward is how likely is he to maintain his current level of production.

In 2007, Victorino was safe on 37 of 41 attempts for an outstanding 90 percent of his stolen base tries. Last year his success rate fell to 77 percent, still a fine number but off considerably from just a season ago.

The four projection systems that predict SB all show Victorino with less than 30 in 2009. CHONE gives him 23 SB, which is the 46th-best mark in the system. ZiPS has him down for 24, which is tied for 62nd-best in the majors.

Marcel, which uses a weighted average of the past three seasons, gives him 26 SB which ties him for 13th-best. The Bill James system gives him 27 steals.

A 10-bag drop in stolen bases would have a huge impact on Victorino. Those who spend a late fourth or early fifth-round pick on him are betting that he can beat the projection systems. This is not an unreasonable wager, he has done it the past two seasons, but a pick that early values Victorino at the top of his range.

Last Player Picked has Victorino as the 43rd-best hitter in fantasy baseball last year. If he matches what he did last year, he gives you equivalent value for his ADP. But there seems to be very little upside for Victorino there and the real possibility that he turns into a disappointment if he fails to crack 30 steals.

Curtis Granderson was a fantasy star in 2007, when he posted a .302-22-74-122-26 line, which was the 16th-best overall season according to the RotoTimes Player Rater. But Granderson came down with a broken finger in Spring Training last year and missed the first 21 games of the season.

He was not as dominant as he was in 2007 but Granderson still had a $16 fantasy season last year. Somewhat surprisingly, he nearly matched his big year in HR and RBIs, but fell off significantly in SB and AVG.

The projection systems do not see a rebound in average, mainly because his .302 mark in 2007 was fueled by a .362 BABIP, a mark Granderson is unlikely to duplicate. But the projections are also bearish on the 28-year old returning to 20+SB. The three systems that predict steals show him with 13 (Marcel) or 14 (Bill James and CHONE).

But there is a better chance for Granderson to approach his 2007 SB numbers than to hit .300 again. And it goes back to his broken finger. Doctors recommended that Granderson go easy in all workouts while he was recovering from the finger injury, worried that he might jar the finger and suffer a setback.

When Granderson returned, his legs were not in the shape they normally were and his running game suffered. After being successful on 26 of 27 attempts in 2007, Granderson was thrown out on four of his first eight attempts last year. But he was successful on his final eight tries of the year, and only a brutal September, in which he batted .192 with a .294 OBP, kept his attempts down.

A 25-HR, 25-SB season is not out of the question for Granderson. And combined with his likely high Runs total (he averaged 117 runs the past two seasons), Granderson has the potential to be a top-25 fantasy hitter. He currently has an ADP of 49, making Granderson a potential bargain for owners who get him in the late fourth or early fifth round.

Carl Crawford gives owners high average and lots of steals as well as contributing in the other three categories. This led him to an ADP of 15 prior to the 2008 season. But finger and hamstring injuries led to a sub-par year for Crawford. This year, mock drafters are being cautious with the Tampa Bay outfielder, giving him an ADP of 29.

All four of the major projection systems see Crawford bouncing back to an average in the .290s this season. The difference is in how valuable they see that being worth. CHONE sees Crawford’s .298 as the 17th-best mark in the majors. Marcel shows his .292 as the 46th-best while Oliver has his .292 as the 31st-best.

The projection systems also show Crawford with 30+ SB. He fares better in this metric, as CHONE has him tied for seventh in the majors with 38 steals and Marcel has him tied for ninth with 32.

The problem is that these are Crawford’s best categories. He needs an average solidly-above .290 and SB totals well over 35 to merit his current ADP. That is because the predicted HR power has simply not materialized for Crawford. Only once in his six seasons as a regular has he cleared double digits in HR/FB rate. That came in 2006 when his rate was 12 percent and he hit a career-high 18 homers.

Before you spend a late-second, early third-round pick on Crawford, be sure you are comfortable projecting the stats for him to return that value. His career-best average is .315, his top mark in runs scored is 104 and his best RBI season is 81. And before you decide he is a lock to steal 50 bases because of his fabulous success ratios, ask how likely it is that Tampa Bay will allow him to attempt the 60-70 steals he has previously in his career, especially since he no longer slots in as the team’s leadoff hitter.

Outfielder Andrew McCutchen has been on the prospect map ever since high school – when he was selected in the first round by Pittsburgh in 2005. The Florida native has been one of the Pirates’ top offensive prospects since signing his first pro contract and he spent all of 2008 in Triple-A at the age of 21.

McCutchen was originally supposed to develop into a five-tool player, but his power has not developed as planned (.115 ISO in 2008), although he did steal 34 bases in 53 attempts last season. Overall, he hit .283/.372/.398 in 512 at-bats. McCutchen also posted rates of 11.7 BB%, which was higher than his career average, and 17.0 K%. His strikeout rates have lowered from where they sat earlier in his career, which shows he’s making adjustments and coming to grips with the type of player that he is (ie. Not a power hitter). Defensively, McCutchen is an above-average fielder, but his arm is just average for center field.

The Pirates organization has slowly gathered together a very impressive young outfield that will eventually include McCutchen, Jose Tabata (obtained from the Yankees in the Xavier Nady deal), and Brandon Moss (obtained from the Red Sox in the Jason Bay trade). Toss in the already-established Nate McLouth and the powerful Steve Pearce (who could see time at first base as well) and you have five players with bright futures.

Word out of Pittsburgh is that the club plans to have McCutchen begin the season in Triple-A again, but he has also received the most at-bats of any player this spring – although he is just 1-for-13 with seven strikeouts and may be pressing. Pearce, McLouth and Moss appear to have the inside tracks on starting jobs. The club also has veteran utility player Eric Hinske on hand, as well as the speedy Nyjer Morgan. Tabata has been slowed by injuries this spring and should also be in Triple-A to begin 2009.

McCutchen likely won’t be down for long and could very well push Pearce or Moss to a platoon or part-time role by the All-Star break. If McCutchen gets half a season at the Major League level, expect a batting average of around .270 and 10-15 stolen bases. He won’t be a star immediately, but he could definitely help Fantasy owners in the second half of the season who are in need of cheap steals. McCutchen is a great choice for keeper leagues too.

Earlier today, we reflected upon the impressive performances turned in by Marlon Byrd and Nelson Cruz in 2008. While both could provide some value in 2009, it probably wouldn’t be wise to expect repeat performances. Now, let’s turn our attention to a guy who has nowhere to go but up (Andruw Jones) and a sophomore fighting to stay in the lineup (David Murphy).

It’s difficult to avert one’s eyes away from Jones’ abrupt, dramatic fall from grace; his 2008 season was the baseball equivalent of a car wreck. Andruw seemed well-positioned to rebound from a down 2007 season:

2006: .375 wOBA, 12.7 BB%, 22.5 K%, .269 ISO, .270 BABIP
2007: .314 wOBA, 10.9 BB%, 24.1 K%, .191 ISO, .248 BABIP

After a monster 2006 campaign, Jones saw his wOBA fall over 60 points. However, there were some reasons to remain sanguine about the long-time Brave. While his power was down in 2007, a .190+ ISO is still nothing to sneeze at, and his control of the strike zone remained largely unchanged. With an uptick in his BABIP, Jones figured to rebound from his .222/.311/.413 showing.

Suffice it to say, that didn’t occur. Signed to a two-year, $36.2 million by the Dodgers, Jones showed up to spring training looking a good 20 to 30 pounds overweight. Perhaps not coincidentally, he battled knee problems and posted a line that made Chin-Lung Hu feel better about himself: in 238 PA, Jones “hit” .158/.256/.249, striking out 36.4% of the time. Despite that minimal playing time, Jones manged to compile -17.9 batting runs.

Jones’ career cliff dive is flabbergasting. 32 in April, the Netherlands Antilles native appeared to possess the sort of broad skill set that would age well: he had patience and power at the plate, but he supplemented that with athleticism that allowed him to cover large swaths of territory in center field- check out his UZR/150 totals on his player page. Projecting where Jones goes from here is a fool’s errand, but it would be prudent not to completely write him off just yet.

As unbelievably macabre as his ’08 work was (the Dodgers gave him a unique severance package to go far, far away, and Jones is in Rangers camp on a $500K minor league deal), Jones is not that far removed from being a valuable commodity. His defense in center was still above-average even with all the extra girth, and Josh Hamilton (-16.4 UZR/150 in CF) is best off in an outfield corner. It’s not out of the realm of possibilities than Andruw works his way onto the 25-man roster.

While Jones is looking to pick up the charred remains of his career, Murphy is still in the early stages of his big league stint. The 27 year-old lefty was acquired from the Red Sox (along with toolsy outfield prospect Engel Beltre and low-upside southpaw Kason Gabbard) for Eric Gagne (speaking of charred careers..) in a July 2007 swap. Blocked in Boston, Murphy saw a good deal of work for the Rangers last season, batting .275/.321/.465 in 454 PA.

The former first-rounder from Baylor was often disappointing in the power department in the Sox farm system (the 6-4, 205 pounder slugged just .407 during his minor league career), so the .190 ISO with Texas was surprising. Still, there does not appear to be a whole lot of upside here: Murphy is in that age range where what you see is generally what you get. The overall package of mild plate discipline (career 7.2 BB%), solid contact (17.3 K%) and average power make Murphy appear as more of a good fourth outfielder than a guy you want patrolling an outfield corner on a day-in, day-out basis.

Brandon Boggs and Frank Catalanotto bear passing mention, though neither projects to soak up many AB’s in 2009. Boggs, a switch-hitting 26 year-old, has a history of working the count and striking out in excess of 30% of his trips to the plate in the minors. Both of those trends continued with the Rangers last season (13.5 BB%, 32.9 K%, .324 wOBA in 334 PA). A good athlete who can draw a walk, Boggs could be a decent extra outfielder, but the contact issues preclude hopes for more than that. Catalanotto will make $4 million in 2009, though his role and utility to the club are not readily apparent. The soon-to-be 35 year-old is the 5th outfielder and backup first baseman. If Jones makes the club, Catalanotto might get the boot.

The Texas Rangers received some unexpected performances in the outfield this past season. Sure, newly-imported Josh Hamilton was supposed to provide thump in the middle of the lineup and did just that, but the folks in Arlington also got the benefit of a career year from thirty-something Marlon Byrd, some late-season feats of strength from minor league bopper Nelson Cruz and a decent rookie debut from David Murphy. Heading into 2009, Hamilton (duh) and Cruz appear to have starting spots locked up. Murphy, Byrd, Brandon Boggs, minor league free agent Andruw Jones and Frank Catalanotto will battle for the remaining at-bats. For now, let’s focus on Byrd and Cruz.

Byrd did his finest big league work in 2008, batting .298/.380/.462 with a .370 wOBA. He walked a career- high 10.2% of the time, while also cutting his K rate to 15.4% (21.3% in ’07). The former Philadelphia farm hand was scrounging for a job as recently as 2006, having posted a feeble .294 wOBA with the Nationals in 228 PA. The 31 year-old has found Texas to be to his liking: he batted .356/.406/.510 at Rangers Ballpark in 2007 (.259/.304/.410 on the road) and continued to enjoy the home cooking in ’08, hitting .299/.398/.512 at home and a mild-but-still-useful .297/.362/.411 in the away grays.

The 6-0, 245 pounder has done an admirable job in picking up the pieces of his shattered Philly prospect days, and has at bare minimum turned himself into a very useful fourth outfielder. CHONE projects Byrd to post a .281/.352/.434 line in 2009, while PECOTA calls for a .271/.335/.426 showing. It’s probably best to view Byrd’s ’08 work as his high-water mark, but you could do worse if you’re in need of a short-term fix in the outfield.

Cruz, meanwhile, has previously been discussed at length on this site. The 28 year-old has long creamed minor league pitching (he’s a career .298/.367/.539 hitter), and he took the Triple-A terrorizing to new levels in 2008. Cruz pummeled to PCL to the tune of .342/.429/.695 in 448 PA. While the batting average was the product of a .363 BABIP, Cruz did show a better eye at the plate (12.8 BB%) and carried that over to the big leagues in a late-season trial (12.9 BB%). In 133 PA for the Rangers, the erstwhile Oakland and Milwaukee prospect batted .330/.421/.609 with 7 HR.

Back in November, I cautioned against getting too excited at the prospect of Cruz receiving everyday playing time:

“Cruz’s AAA line was legitimately impressive, but we’re talking about a 28 year-old whose skill set remains the same as it was entering the year: impressive power, but just decent plate patience and lofty strikeout rates. His small-sample mashing might engender lofty expectations, but it’s important to keep the big picture in mind. Cruz had a .388 average on balls in play, a very high number that will regress. Also, the chances of a guy striking out so often hitting .330 are essentially zero. “

That assessment might sound overly pessimistic, but I think it is important to keep in mind that Cruz is a AAA veteran in his late 20’s, not some youthful hot-shot who precociously dominated the upper levels of the minor leagues. The 6-3, 230 pounder could be useful to the Rangers-he has plenty of raw power-but his control of the zone has generally been just fair and he has whiffed nearly a quarter of the time in AAA. He’s interesting, surely, but his small-sample work with the Rangers might lead to unreasonably high expectations. PECOTA calls for a .260/.335/.484 line, which seems reasonable for a righty power hitter in Arlington.

Florida loves its rookies. Cameron Maybin has been a top prospect since high school and he was taken by the Detroit Tigers with the 10th overall pick of the 2005 draft. Maybin was also the key trading chip (along with pitcher Andrew Miller) that sent Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis to Detroit prior to the 2008 season.

After spending the majority of the 2008 season in Double-A, Maybin is poised to enter 2009 as the Marlins’ starting center-fielder. The athletic, right-handed hitter batted .500 (16-for-32) in a brief MLB trial in late 2008 with the Marlins. He stolen four bases in eight games, but also whiffed eight times. Maybin could be one of those players, not unlike Florida shortstop Hanley Ramirez, that rises to the occasion, basks in the spotlight, and posts better numbers in the Majors than he did in the minors.

Last season in Double-A, Maybin hit .277/.375/.456 with 13 homes and 21 stolen bases in 390 at-bats. He also posted a respectable walk rate of 13.3 BB%, but a high strikeout rate of 31.8 K%, which could very well hurt his batting average early in his career if it does not improve.

Maybin can impact a game in a number of different ways. He has raw power and should be good for 15-20 homers in his prime. Maybin also has the speed to steal 30-40 bases in a season. Defensively, he has game-changing range and instincts, while also possessing a strong arm. Once he learns to hit breaking balls better, he could improve upon his .297 career minor league batting average. Maybin struggled with runners on base in 2008 and hit just .232 in those situations.

Maybin’s biggest competition for a starting role in 2009 is himself. He has to keep things simple and trust his natural ability; only a terrible spring will keep him off the opening-day roster. Other outfielders on the 40-man roster that can play center include Cody Ross (ticketed for left field), Alfredo Amezaga (a solid utility player), and Brett Carroll (fringe MLB starter). For fantasy purposes, Maybin could be a solid sleeper but don’t spend a high pick on him. He should hit about .270/.345/.390 with 10 homers and 20 stolen bases in his first season in Florida.

In 2006 Alfonso Soriano was the third-best fantasy hitter, thanks to a season that included 46 HR and 41 SB. Injuries curtailed his production in both 2007 and 2008, with a fractured left hand causing Soriano to miss 34 games last season. Currently, he has an ADP of 23, as fantasy owners are optimistic he will play a full season and approach the lofty levels he enjoyed back in 2006.

It is doubtful that Soriano will come close to 41 SB. He attempted 25 and 22 steals the past two seasons. And while those numbers would have been higher in a full season, even pro-rated they come up short of the 58 attempts he had in 2006. Soriano remains an excellent percentage base stealer (a fantastic 86 percent success rate in 2008) but at the age of 33 this season, it is likely his 40-steal days are behind him.

However, a return to 40 HR is not out of the question if he can play in 150 games. Soriano hits the necessary number of fly balls; his 48 percent fly ball rate ranked seventh in the majors in 2008. And while his 17.1 percent HR/FB rate was above average, it is in line with what he has done previously. His lifetime HR/FB mark is 15.7 percent.

But none of the four projection systems thinks a 150-game season is on tap for Soriano. Bill James is the most optimistic in regards to playing time, and it forecasts 140 games and 576 at-bats. On the other end of the spectrum, Marcel and Oliver see 465 and 461 at-bats, respectively. Soriano had 647 at-bats in his standout 2006 season.

With the questions about his playing time and how many steals he will likely post, it seems that Soriano is being slightly overvalued in the mock drafts. If you are intent on drafting an outfielder, Carlos Lee and Ichiro Suzuki would be potential replacements, with the latter’s AB-heavy AVG a nice thing to have.

Toronto Blue Jays manager Cito Gaston recently stated that rookie phenom Travis Snider, only 21, would have to play himself off the team this spring. The left-handed outfielder rocketed through the system last year, playing at four levels (including the Majors) despite beginning the year stuck at DH with a wonky elbow.

The 14th overall pick of the 2006 draft out of a Washington state high school has a career minor league line of .299/.375/.513 in 1,138 at-bats. Last season, he spent the majority of the season in Double-A and struggled with his batting average and strikeouts. However, his elbow was reportedly the cause of the early problems; Snider hit .125/.288/.125 with 18 strikeouts in his first 32 at-bats at that level. He ended his stint in Double-A at .262 and then hit .344 in an 18-game stay in Triple-A.

Snider was called up to the Majors to finish the season and more than held his own as a 20 year old. He hit .301/.338/.466 with a .164 ISO in 73 at-bats. He also posted rates of 6.4 BB% and 31.5 K%. His walk rates have been better in the minors, so that should improve before too long. Snider’s strikeout rate, though, will likely be high until he acclimatizes to the Majors and matures a bit as a hitter. As a result, don’t expect him to hit for a high average any time soon. That said, he has a swing that could eventually produce a few .290-.310 seasons. He also has 35-homer power.

Defensively, Snider has the arm to play right field, but the range for left. That should not be an issue with two of the better defensive outfielders in the American League in center field (Vernon Wells) and right field (Alex Rios). Adam Lind, 25, could also spend some time in left when he is not in the designated-hitter role. Unfortunately, both promising youngsters swing from the left side so a platoon is not in order. Snider has more power than Lind, but the U of South Alabama alum is more likely to flirt with a .300 average at this point.

Snider should be in the top five when it comes to considering prospects to draft for your keeper leagues, and he could have an immediate impact in all fantasy leagues while competing for the Rookie of the Year award in the American League. The only thing that could prevent him from hitting 20 homers in his first full Major League season is an injury.